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Copper price within sight of all-time high as Chinese smelters hit record activity

Copper ended the week up more than 5% reaching a 10-week high at the close on Friday. At $6.11 per pound ($13,480 a tonne) in New York, May futures are back to within shouting distance of the all-time high closing price struck at the end of January, the day before the start of the Iran war.
The positive trend was underscored by new satellite data showing March smelter activity continuing to improve after hitting the lowest on record since tracking began nearly a decade ago in January this year.
Earth-i’s latest SAVANT Global Copper Smelting Index shows that 11.7% of global smelting capacity was inactive in March, down from 14.3% registered in January. Earth-i’s satellites cover some 95% of global capacity.
The increased activity was concentrated in China where the country-level inactive capacity sub-index fell by 1.1% to just 3.9%.
London-based Earth-i points out that together with the continuing build out of smelting capacity on the mainland, this resulted in an all-time high active capacity reading of 10.73 million tonnes, more than 775,000 tonnes higher than a year ago and 1.49 million tonnes above the 3-year average.
“This speaks to the improvement in downstream activity in recent weeks, as demand recovers following a ‘buyer’s strike’ in response to record high copper prices in January that has also seen imports from international market slump.”
Outside China, with the exception of Africa where the central copper belt showed strong operating performance, activity fell.
In Iran two smelters with combined capacity of 400,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) are offline (outside their historical routine maintenance schedules) and the ongoing outage at the 300,000-tpa Mount Isa smelter in Queensland, Australia, helped keep the Asia & Oceania regional inactivity sub index elevated at 18.7%, well above its 3-year average of only 5.7%.
According to Earth-i, inactivity did tick up modestly in Europe by 2.1%, but the region is still showing the lowest average percentage of idled capacity at 6.2%. Meanwhile smelting continues to be weakest in the western hemisphere, with the inactive capacity sub-index for North America rising by 10.3% in March to 32.3%, moving above that of South America at 27.4%.
Acid test
Chinese smelters’ willingness to buy concentrate increased further as sulfuric acid prices surged with FOB China at $210 per tonne in April, up 74% since January due to disruptions from the Iran war, according to a S&P Global Energy report.
This allows the country’s operators to secure short-term margins while putting additional pressure on TC/RCs (charges paid by miners to refiners). Spot TCRCs have plunged into deeply negative territory, with recent spot market tenders closing near –$78.50 per tonne and –7.85¢ per lb according to Platts, a unit of S&P Global Energy. That’s a swing from a positive $50 per tonne in January 2024.
The downward pressure on TC/RCs will remain, says S&P Global as the copper concentrate export permit for Indonesia’s Batu Hijau mine is set to expire at the end of April. In addition, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Kamoa-Kakula 500,000-tpa capacity smelter began anode production at the end of 2025 which will consume domestically produced copper concentrate, further curbing exports.
The benchmark annual contract market has followed this collapse. Antofagasta’s 2026 benchmark agreement with a Chinese smelter settled at zero dollars, the lowest annual TC/RC terms ever recorded.
Codelco targets higher 2027 output to reclaim top copper spot

Codelco is targeting a slight increase in copper output in 2027 as Chile’s state-owned miner looks to reclaim the mantle of world’s biggest supplier of the industrial metal.
Total production next year is budgeted at 1.5 million metric tons, according to people briefed on the projections. The amount includes Codelco’s share of output from mines it doesn’t operate but holds minority ownership in. Production from its own mines is targeted to rise to 1.37 million tons from 1.34 million tons this year, said the people, who asked not to be identified because 2027 guidance hasn’t yet been published.
The company is striving to reverse a prolonged decline in output while getting its aging mines and delayed expansion projects back on track. Chairman Maximo Pacheco is eying a return to pre-pandemic levels of 1.7 million tons by the end of the decade when the global market is expected to tighten.
Codelco has overhauled management and decentralized project leadership to counter falling ore grades, cost overruns and a heavy debt load. Bloomberg Intelligence says Codelco is on track to displace BHP Group as the top global producer. BHP operates Escondida in northern Chile, the world’s biggest single copper mine.
“If Codelco manages to squeeze out a few more tons and Escondida’s grade does decline according to the mine plan, Codelco could take top spot again,” BI analyst Grant Sporre said.
(By James Attwood)
Codelco, Anglo pursue twin environmental approvals for shared Chile copper pit

Chilean copper producer Codelco and global miner Anglo American plan to submit separate environmental studies to regulators for their planned shared copper mine in Chile, documents seen by Reuters show, using what they called an “unprecedented” twin-track to streamline the approval process.
The previously unreported documents on the Andina-Los Bronces project, presented to environmental authorities in January, show the companies plan in December to file two largely identical applications for a pit where they would jointly extract copper in the world’s top producer of the red metal.
The model could serve as a blueprint for other major miners seeking to share infrastructure and operations to raise output amid an expected global supply crunch, while setting up Codelco and Anglo American to move faster and cut down on risks.
Codelco and Anglo finalized the deal in September, planning to add about 120,000 metric tons of copper per year from 2030 to 2051, generating at least $5 billion in pre-tax value.
Codelco chairman Maximo Pacheco, as well as a source at Anglo American, confirmed to Reuters that the firms plan to file the two applications at the end of the year.
‘Mirror’ applications
In areas where operations will overlap, the companies proposed applying identical environmental measures to each miner.
A single filing was not legally viable, they argued, because Chile’s constitution requires Codelco to retain ownership of its mining concessions, one presentation showed.
The companies also considered filing three applications: one from each miner to extend the useful life of their respective mines, and a third from a joint entity that would run the shared operation.
They ruled that out because it would require the firms to give up their existing open-pit environmental permits to make way for the combined mine.
The dual structure would also allow the mines to potentially return to independent operations in the future.
Work on the ground
The documents detailed plans to create a single pit over the existing pits.
Anglo American’s Los Bronces and Codelco’s Andina pits are adjacent, and the companies’ plan showed the rock barrier between them would also be mined, creating a single operating pit while keeping the project largely within the mines’ existing footprint.
Ore extracted from the shared pit would be sent interchangeably to Los Bronces’ and Andina’s processing plants, while waste rock would be deposited in each company’s own waste dumps, one document showed.
Changes to waste dumps, tailings facilities, pipelines and support infrastructure would still be needed for the two mines to operate as an integrated system.
Shared infrastructure would avoid duplicate facilities, cut freshwater use and reduce pressure on the surrounding area, the companies said.
Risks to sharing a mine
The companies also flagged significant risks, such as the need for close coordination with regulators, which could strain Chile’s already slow-moving environmental review system.
They highlighted the project’s “high public visibility” and the risk that environmentalists and affected communities could argue the two reviews obscure the scale of the impacts.
Los Bronces has faced years of scrutiny by residents, regulators and courts over alleged impacts on air quality, water use and glaciers in the high Andes where the mine operates.
While Codelco and Anglo argue the dual-track approach would reduce the risk of underestimating impacts, they acknowledged it could lead to duplicate or unnecessary environmental management measures.
The firms plan to begin outreach to local communities and other stakeholders in the second half of the year, one document showed.
(By Kylie Madry and Fabian Cambero; Editing by Daina Beth Solomon and Mark Potter)










