How to invest in a fairer and low carbon energy system

HERIOT-WATT UNIVERSITY

Research News 

IMAGE: INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM ILLUSTRATION view more 

CREDIT: HERIOT-WATT UNIVERSITY

Governments throughout the world have accelerated their ambitions towards effective climate change mitigation. What is clear, in this challenge of how to tackle the complex and global issue of climate change, is that there is no one technology or stakeholder that will drive the full and timely decarbonisation that the world and its citizens require.

Therefore, as part of this global energy transition, there is an unprecedent increase in decarbonisation investments accompanied with new levels of accessibility to both energy systems and markets. So, a key research question is how best to understand and optimise the value proposition for different stakeholders. Due to the need to fast track decarbonisation and to ensure that this is an inclusive energy transition with social justice and equity at its core, we need to understand the dynamics and interdependencies across people, technology and economics.

A team of researchers within the Smart Systems Group at Heriot-Watt University, have been exploring how Game-theoretic models could represent a promising approach to study strategic interactions between self-interested private energy system investors.

In this research, we design and evaluate a game-theoretic framework to study strategic interactions between profit-maximising players that invest in an electrical network, renewable generation and storage capacity. Specifically, we study the case where grid capacity is developed by a private renewable investor, but line access is shared with competing renewable and storage investors, thus enabling them to export energy and access electricity demand.

Professor David Flynn, founder of the Smart Systems Group, stated; "We model the problem of deducing how much capacity each player should build as a non-cooperative Stackelberg-Cournot game between a dominant player (leader) who builds the power line and renewable generation capacity, and local renewable and storage investors (multiple followers), who react to the installation of the line by increasing their own capacity. Using data-driven analysis and simulations, we developed an empirical search method for estimating the game equilibrium, where the payoffs capture the realistic operation and control of the energy system under study."

The results within this research use a practical demonstration of the underlying methodologies, for a real-world grid reinforcement project in the UK. The methodology provides a realistic mechanism to analyse investor decision-making and investigate feasible tariffs that encourage distributed renewable investment, with sharing of grid access.

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Orkney

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Heriot-Watt University

The journal was recently published in IEEE Access, led by Professor Flynn's Smart Systems Group at Heriot-Watt University, and supported by the UKRI Responsive Flexibility, ReFLEX, whole system demonstrator project, and the UKs EPSRC National Centre for Energy System Integration.

International study: Humans accelerate the change of biodiversity

Humans have significantly altered biodiversity in all climate zones of the Earth. This has been shown by a study published in "Science".

UNIVERSITÄT BAYREUTH

Research News

 

IMAGE: PASTURE LANDSCAPE ON PICO, THE SECOND LARGEST ISLAND OF THE AZORES. view more 

CREDIT: © MANUEL STEINBAUER.

Humans have significantly altered biodiversity in all climate zones of the Earth. This has been shown by a study now published in Science. Led by Prof. Dr. Manuel Steinbauer at the University of Bayreuth, and Dr. Sandra Nogué at the University of Southampton, an international team has investigated how the flora on 27 islands in different regions has developed over the last 5,000 years. Almost everywhere, the arrival of humans has triggered a markedly accelerated change in species composition in previously pristine ecosystems. This dynamic was particularly pronounced on islands colonised in the last 1,500 years.

The 27 islands selected for this study were never connected to the mainland and had been colonised by humans during the study period. Within these islands, pollen of wind-pollinated plants lies since millenia deposited in the sediments of lakes and bogs. The pollen was extracted from the sediment layers, dated, and identified to a respective plant species.

"For each of the 27 islands, our study shows how vegetation composition has changed over the last 5,000 years. Humans' colonisation of the previously undisturbed islands falls within this period. We can therefore trace how natural systems change as a result of human arrival. This transformation from a natural to a human-dominated system can only be observed on islands. On continents, humans have been extensively changing ecological systems for a very long time. What a natural ecosystem would look like here, we can often no longer tell," says Steinbauer.

The researchers compared the data obtained through pollen analyses with archaeological findings that provide information about when the islands were first settled by humans. The result provide a clear message. On 24 of the 27 islands studied, the arrival of humans marked a turning point in vegetation turnover. From this point on, vegetation changed at a significantly higher rate, its rate of change was accelerated by a factor of eleven.

The species composition changed particularly on islands that were colonised in the past 1,500 years, such as the Galapagos Islands and Robinson Crusoe Island off Chile. If, on the other hand, the first settlement took place longer ago, the increase in the rate of species turnover was less pronounced. The authors attribute this difference to an increasing technical know-how of agriculture and the associated effects on biodiversity. In addition, as a result of their increasing mobility, people may have introduced plant species from the mainland, compeating with native species on the islands.

"The results of the study highlight the extensive changes we humans are causing in ecological systems. The change in pollen composition in our study mainly reflects human land use over millennia. With the beginning of the industrial age, human induced transformation of ecological systems has accelerated even further. Adding to this, ecological systems are now additionally affected by human induced climate change" explains Prof. Dr. Manuel Steinbauer, corresponding author of the study. He is a member of the Bayreuth Centre for Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER), a research centre of the University of Bayreuth, and has been working here for several years on human influences on ecological systems. In this context, he is also leading a DFG (German Research Foundation) project that is investigating how climate change of geological time periods has influenced the risk of extinction of species.

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A research team on Tenerife takes sediment cores containing pollen.

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© José María Fernández Palacios

Branching worm with dividing internal organs growing in sea sponge

International research team including Göttingen University first to describe tree-like internal anatomy of symbiotic worm and sponge

UNIVERSITY OF GÖTTINGEN

Research News

 

IMAGE: FRAGMENT OF THE ANTERIOR END OF AN INDIVIDUAL LIVING WORM (RAMISYLLIS MULTICAUDATA) DISSECTED OUT OF ITS HOST SPONGE. BIFURCATION OF THE GUT CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE WORM BRANCHES. THE... view more 

CREDIT: PONZ-SEGRELLES & GLASBY

The marine worm Ramisyllis multicaudata, which lives within the internal canals of a sponge, is one of only two such species possessing a branching body, with one head and multiple posterior ends. An international research team led by the Universities of Göttingen and Madrid is the first to describe the internal anatomy of this intriguing animal. The researchers discovered that the complex body of this worm spreads extensively in the canals of their host sponges. In addition, they describe the anatomical details and nervous system of its unusual reproductive units, the stolons, which form their own brain when detached for fertilization, allowing them to navigate their environment. The results were published in the Journal of Morphology.

The research team found the host sponges and their guest worms in a remote area in Darwin, Australia, where these animals live. They collected samples, some of which are now located in the collections of the Biodiversity Museum at the University of Göttingen. For their analysis, they combined techniques such as histology, electronic optical microscopy, immunohistochemistry, confocal laser microscopy, and X-ray computed microtomography. This made it possible to obtain three-dimensional images both of the worms' different internal organs and of the interior of the sponges that they inhabit. The scientists show that when the body of these animals divides, so do all their internal organs, something that has never been observed before.

Furthermore, the three-dimensional models developed during this research have made it possible to find a new anatomical structure exclusive to these animals, which is formed by muscular bridges that cross between the different organs whenever their body has to form a new branch. These muscular bridges are essential because they confirm that the bifurcation process does not occur in the early stages of life, but once the worms are adults and then throughout their lives. In addition, researchers propose that this unique "fingerprint" of muscle bridges makes it theoretically possible to distinguish the original branch from the new one in each bifurcation of the complex body network.

In addition, this new study investigates the anatomy of the reproductive units (stolons) that develop in the posterior ends of the body when these animals are about to reproduce, and that are characteristic of the family to which they belong (Syllidae). The results show that these stolons form a new brain and have their own eyes. This allows them to navigate their environment when they are detached from the body for fertilization. This brain is connected to the rest of the nervous system by a ring of nerves that surrounds the intestine.

"Our research solves some of the puzzles that these curious animals have posed ever since the first branched annelid was discovered at the end of the 19th century," explains senior author Dr Maite Aguado, University of Göttingen. "However, there is still a long way to go to fully understand how these fascinating animals live in the wild. For example, this study has concluded that the intestine of these animals could be functional, yet no trace of food has ever been seen inside them and so it is still a mystery how they can feed their huge branched bodies. Other questions raised in this study are how blood circulation and nerve impulses are affected by the branches of the body." This research lays the foundations for understanding how these creatures live and how their incredible branched body came to evolve.

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The host sponge (Petrosia) where several posterior ends of one specimen of the worm Ramisyllis multicaudata can be seen as white lines crawling on the sponge's surface.

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Glasby

Original Publication: Ponz-Segrelles G, Glasby CJ, Helm C, et al. Integrative anatomical study of the branched annelid Ramisyllis multicaudata (Annelida, Syllidae). Journal of Morphology. 2021;1-17. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmor.21356

Contact

http://www.biodivmuseum.de/
http://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/623758.html

Video footage of the branching worm can be seen here: https://www.uni-goettingen.de/de/vorschau_e77888da17e697ced1f22eabbb6b490d/559326.html

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Small fraction of a single living specimen dissected out of its host sponge as seen through the stereomicroscope. Some dislodged fragments of sponge tissue can also be seen.

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Ponz-Segrelles, Aguado & Glas

Brazilian Amazon released more carbon than it stored in 2010s

UNIVERSITY OF EXETER

Research News

 

IMAGE: DEGRADED FOREST IN MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL view more 

CREDIT: TED FELDPAUSCH

The Brazilian Amazon rainforest released more carbon than it stored over the last decade - with degradation a bigger cause than deforestation - according to new research.

More than 60% of the Amazon rainforest is in Brazil, and the new study used satellite monitoring to measure carbon storage from 2010-2019.

The study found that degradation (parts of the forest being damaged but not destroyed) accounted for three times more carbon loss than deforestation.

The research team - including INRAE, the University of Oklahoma and the University of Exeter - said large areas of rainforest were degraded or destroyed due to human activity and climate change, leading to carbon loss.

The findings, published in Nature Climate Change, also show a significant rise in deforestation in 2019 - 3.9 million hectares compared to about 1 million per year in 2017 and 2018 - possibly due to weakened environmental protection in Brazil.

Professor Stephen Sitch, of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, said: "The Brazilian Amazon as a whole has lost some of its biomass, and therefore released carbon.

"We all know the importance of Amazon deforestation for global climate change.

"Yet our study shows how emissions from associated forest degradation processes can be even larger.

"Degradation is a pervasive threat to future forest integrity and requires urgent research attention."

Degradation is linked to deforestation, especially in weakened portions of a forest near deforested zones, but it is also caused by tree-felling and forest fires.

Climate events, such as droughts, further increase tree mortality.

Such degradation can be hard to track, but the research team used the satellite vegetation index L-VOD developed by scientists at INRAE, CEA and the CNRS.

Using this index and a new technique for monitoring deforestation developed by the University of Oklahoma, the study evaluated changes in forest carbon stocks.

A change of government in Brazil in 2019 brought a sharp decline in the country's environmental protection.

The 3.9 million hectares of deforestation in that year is 30% more than in 2015, when extreme El Niño droughts led to increased tree mortality and wildfires. However, the study shows that carbon losses in 2015 were larger than in 2019.

This demonstrates the dramatic impact that degradation can have on overall biomass and carbon storage in the rainforest.

The paper is entitled: "Carbon loss from forest degradation exceeds that from deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon."

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Degraded forest in Mato Grosso, Brazil

CREDIT

Ted Feldpausch

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Degraded forest in Mato Grosso, Brazil

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Ted Feldpausch

Canada has 20 per cent of the world’s freshwater reserves — this is how to protect it

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The federal government has been working since 2020 to create a Canadian agency dedicated to water management across the country. Public consultations ended on March 1, and the Indigenous engagement process will continue throughout 2021.

© (Shutterstock) An aerial view of Georgian Bay, Ont.

But many questions and expectations remain about the nature of the new Canada Water Agency. Water governance encompasses all the administrative, social, political, economic and legal processes put in place to manage water. In other words, it is these societal processes that determine how governmental and non-governmental groups develop measures and make decisions in the area of water management.

We are members of the University of Ottawa Forum on Water Law and Governance, a research network that has identified a series of law and governance issues that need to be considered by the future Canada Water Agency.
The urgency to act

As the global demand for freshwater steadily increases, Canada seems to be in a privileged position: it holds 20 per cent of the world’s freshwater supply and nine per cent of the world’s renewable freshwater resources.

However, when it comes to the urgent issue of freshwater management, many factors come into play. These include climate change, which is occurring more rapidly in Canada than elsewhere and has pronounced environmental consequences, access to drinking water in Indigenous communities and flood policies. All of these issues contribute to the need to create a Canada Water Agency

Environment and Climate Change Canada released a discussion paper on the future agency in December 2020, and held public consultations through virtual national and regional forums in January and February 2021. Indigenous engagement is ongoing.
Legal challenges

Canadian water law is hindered by interjurisdictional issues and a lack of co-ordination between government groups. Many proposals have been made to overcome these obstacles.

For starters, there are discussions about possible co-operative efforts in the light of the constitutional division of powers and the impact of recent case law on co-operative federalism. There have also been calls to reform the Canada Water Act to reconsider freshwater management through watershed management.

More integrated collaboration between different governmental and non-governmental groups has also been encouraged. Finally, some advocate for a complete paradigm shift, to an Indigenous perspective of water as a life-giving (and life-taking) spiritual entity.
Political issues

The creation of the Canada Water Agency must address the fragmentation of water management, multi-level governance issues and the specifics of Canadian federalism.

Its creation would be the culmination of renewed political interest following the Walkerton crisis in 2000, where E. coli contaminated the muncipality’s water, killing seven and making more than 2,000 sick. It would also be an opportunity to revitalize the federal water policy, which has been gathering dust since 1987.
The role of municipalities

While the institutional environment and relationships that characterize water management in Canada are complex, the future Canada Water Agency could nonetheless promote the creation and sharing of knowledge, as well as citizen participation.

Municipalities, which play a fundamental role in infrastructure and in the protection of aquatic ecosystems, could also be recognized as key players in Canadian water management within the agency. This would be an opportunity to modernize the framework for federal-municipal relations in Canada.
Water dynamics

Despite a move towards integration and harmonization of water management, it’s important to consider the different sectors associated with water and to reflect on the dynamics of water management.

Several water management bodies, like the Lake of the Woods Control Board or the International Joint Commission, have been trying for several years to set objectives that take the territory or ecosystem into account.

It is also necessary to consider the diverse dynamics of water. This means, for instance, considering the specifics of the agriculture sector or the health sector, with respect to water needs, impacts on water, access to water or issues related to environmental justice.

Relevant models elsewhere

While the creation of a Canada Water Agency is a domestic initiative, looking at international perspectives is interesting for at least three reasons:

The Canadian initiative is an opportunity to question and even challenge imagined national sovereignty over water, since the management issues go largely beyond the borders of Canada.

Canada also has the opportunity to learn from several innovative foreign experiences. This is the case of the French Water Agencies, which have enabled the emergence of a form of water democracy and which are now essential actors in environmental protection. This is also the case in New Zealand, where the Whanganui River has been granted legal personhood as part of reconciliation efforts between New Zealand and the Māori.


Finally, the future Canada Water Agency will be scrutinized and studied beyond Canada’s borders. This will have implications for the activities of the International Joint Commission and will contribute to international thinking in the field of water management.

© (Shutterstock) In New Zealand, the Whanganui River has been granted legal personhood.

The importance of next steps

Recent surveys show that Canadians consider water to be their country’s primary natural resource. Merrell-Ann Phare, commissioner of the International Joint Commission, told the conference we hosted that “the Canada Water Agency is potentially a groundbreaking governance innovation in Canada”.

The next steps will therefore be critical. Environment and Climate Change Canada has to move forward in preparing a report that incorporates the comments received during the public consultation.

The recently released federal budget plan 2021 includes $17.4 million of funding for this initiative over two years, starting this year. While this proposal appears to confirm government commitment, the proposed schedule may be disrupted if a federal election is called in the fall.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Thomas Burelli, Professeur en droit, Section de droit civil, Université d’Ottawa (Canada), membre du Conseil scientifique de la Fondation receives funding from the University of Ottawa's Alex Trebek Forum for Dialogue.

France Libertés, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa, 

Alexandre Lillo, Postdoctoral Fellow, L’Universniversity of Ottawa, receives funding from the University of Ottawa's Alex Trebek Forum for Dialogue.

 Eric Champagne, Professeur agrégé, École d'études politique, Directeur, Centre d'études en gouvernance / Associate professor, School of Political Studies, Director, Centre on Governance, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa, receives funding from the University of Ottawa's Alex Trebek Forum for Dialogue.

Marie-France Fortin, Assistant professor, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa,  receives funding from the University of Ottawa's Alex Trebek Forum for Dialogue.

Lauren Touchant, Postdoctoral fellow, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa  receives funding from University of Ottawa's Alex Trebek Forum for Dialogue.

Antarctica's Springy Bedrock Could Make Sea Level Rise Even Worse

Look out world—the ice sheet is coming. New research says that the total collapse of a crucial ice sheet in Antarctica could mean that sea levels would rise an additional 30% more than scientists currently predict

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 Photo: Jeremy Harbeck (AP)

The study, published Friday in Science Advances, deals with how the melting ice on the West Antarctic ice sheet will impact the Earth’s crust below. Current predictions say that the ice sheet will increase sea level rise by 10.8 feet (3.3 meters) if it melts fully over the next 1,000 years, but taking the bedrock into effect, this study found, could add a full 3.3 feet (1 meter) to current predictions. What’s more, the models the researchers used show that sea level rise predictions from the ice sheet by the end of this century could actually be 20% higher because of this bedrock effect.

“Every published projection of sea level rise due to melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet that has been based on climate modeling, whether the projection extends to the end of this century or longer into the future, is going to have to be revised upward because of their work,” Jerry Mitrovica, a geophysicist at Harvard University and author on the paper, said in a press release. “Every single one.”

The rock that underlies much of the West Antarctic ice sheet’s sits below sea level, meaning it is especially sensitive to warm ocean currents. How that water could burrow under the ice is one of the biggest question marks as we consider what could happen to sea levels as the planet continues to warm.

“Future change in the West Antarctic ice sheet is the biggest uncertainty in predictions of sea-level rise,” Robert Larter, a marine geophysicist at the British Antarctic Survey who was not involved with the study, wrote in an email. “Other contributions to sea level change (ocean thermal expansion, melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps, and ice loss from Greenland) can all be estimated with less uncertainty. The difficulty in predicting future change in the WAIS is that most of its bed lies below sea level, and under a large part of the bed gets deeper as you go further into the ice sheet.”

Scientists think that warm ocean currents are making the ice sheet’s underwater bed increasingly unstable. This instability could create a feedback loop as the top part of the sheet starts to melt, creating what Larter called a “point of no return” for the ice sheet. “However, as in the history of modern science we have never been able to observe a marine ice sheet retreat, we don’t have good observational data to determine how strong the feedbacks are and how fast the retreat might proceed,” he continued.

One big factor in how this collapse could impact us is, surprisingly, the Earth’s crust beneath the ice sheets themselves. As the ice sheet melts and the weight of the ice decreases, the bedrock will spring up like a mattress after you get up out of bed. In the case of the West Antarctic ice sheet, because its base is below sea level, the crust rising up will take up more space in the ocean.

“This will reduce the amount of accommodation space for water, driving up further sea level rise on time scales of thousands of years,” Bethan Davies, a glacier researcher at the Royal Holloway University of London who was not involved in the study, wrote in an email.

It’s this relationship that the specific research narrows in on: just how much this bedrock—not the melting ice itself—could make sea levels rise. The bedrock beneath the ice sheet, the study says, is a type of low-viscosity mantle that will “rebound rapidly” as the ice melts. The study authors wrote that previous work had estimated this bedrock effect “is small and occurs slowly.” Their models, however, show that it can have a substantial contribution to how sea level is affected by this particular ice sheet melting down.In addressing how the Earth’s crust will react to melting ice, Davies said this particular study tackles a crucial piece of figuring out the overall impact from the ice sheet.

“One uncertainty in predicting the future is how the Earth’s lithosphere will react to glacier recession,” she wrote. “We continuously try to refine this aspect of glacier dynamics. By using a new model and applying it over a long time, [the study authors] are studying a hitherto understudied aspect of long-term glacier evolution.”

Larter speculated that the big increase the study found compared to previous sea-level rise estimates could simply mean that scientists from across disciplines are finally talking to each other.

“This result arises from integrated modeling of the ice sheets and the solid Earth, study areas that have traditionally been the separate domains of glaciologists and geologists,” he said. “Over the past couple of decades, scientists have increasingly realized that to solve many important environmental science questions, we need to work across disciplines, and a particular example of this is the realization that the characteristics and response of the solid Earth beneath ice sheets are very important to predicting how they will change.”

While scientists have built increasingly reliable models to study what could happen to glaciers and ice, this study shows how much more there is to learn about what we’re in for as the planet continues to warm and we enter uncharted territory. And that’s not really a great place to be

Climate collapse: The people who fear society is doomed

No scientific study has found that climate change is likely to wipe out civilization, but for many even the possibility is terrifying enough to upend their lives.



Rich countries like the US and Australia have seen apocalyptic images of climate change after smoke from wildfires darkened skies above big cities

When Typhoon Vamco battered the Philippines in November last year, unleashing a month's worth of rain on the capital Manila in less than 24 hours, Mitzi Jonelle Tan was on her way home from work. Her mother, scared for Tan's safety as roads flooded, warned her not to come back.

That was the last she heard from her mother for three days.

"We had no electricity, we barely had any cellular signal," said Tan, who stayed with a friend during the storm as people clambered onto rooftops to escape two-storey high floodwaters. "I had no idea if my mom was OK, if I had a home to come home to."

Like most Filipinos, Tan is no stranger to devastating cyclones — Typhoon Goni, one of the strongest storms ever recorded, barely missed Metro Manila and its 13 million residents when it made landfall just two weeks earlier. But Tan, co-founder of Youth Advocates for Climate Action Philippines, also carries a mental burden: She knows such storms will grow stronger as the planet heats up.

"Even today, without runaway climate change, we're already suffering," said Tan, a 22-year-old math graduate who remembers helping her parents scoop floodwater out of the house as a child and weeks of doing homework by candlelight when storms cut off electricity. "I have fears of drowning in my own bedroom when I hear another typhoon is coming."


Mitzi Jonelle Tan, pictured left, lives in the second-most dangerous country for environmental activists, according to NGO Global Witness


Citizens of the Philippines are adjusting to tropical cyclones that are growing even stronger

The emotional toll of climate change is often made worse by an existential debate riddled with misinformation: Just how much can society take before it breaks down?

Before Tan reaches the age of her mother, who is 58, sea levels will have risen so high that coastal floods that used to strike once a century will swamp Manila and dozens of other cities every single year. Wildfires that smother towns in the US and Australia with choking smoke will feast on plants dried to a crisp by hotter, longer heatwaves. At least one-quarter of the ice in the Hindu Kush Himalayas will have melted, raising tensions for 1.5 billion people who already rely on its rivers for water in three countries armed with nuclear weapons: India, China and Pakistan.

Heatwaves and drought leave dry fuel that helps wildfires spread out of control

Groups like the Deep Adaptation Forum — an online support group for 12,000 people — believe climate-fueled societal breakdown is "inevitable, likely or already unfolding." Their claims have tapped into a wider public fear that collapse is on the cards.

A YouGov poll at the start of the coronavirus pandemic found that three in 10 US adults think there will be an apocalyptic disaster within their lifetime. A separate poll of five countries in 2019 found that more than half of respondents in France, Italy, the UK and the US think civilization as they know it will collapse in years to come. In Germany that figure was slightly lower, at 39%.

Tan said she cried "night after night" upon reading reports that world leaders are likely to miss their target of keeping warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius this century. "For a time, I lost hope, thinking: Is everything really just impossible now?"

In February a landslide in the Himalayas that melted ice sent floods downstream that killed scores and trapped hundreds in tunnels

Will climate change cause the collapse of civilization?

Despite widespread fears, no peer-reviewed research finds that the breakdown of society or the collapse of civilization is likely, let alone inevitable. Scientists used to debunking myths from climate deniers say they must also fight off claims of collapse that hinge on distorted science.

Still, climate disasters could disrupt politics in some regions enough that "the glue that holds society together doesn't work very well anymore," said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences at the University of Princeton. "But that's where we're getting into the realm of things that are unpredictable."

"We know that we won't be fine, but there's a lot of space between fine and doomed," said Jacquelyn Gill, an associate professor of Paleoecology at the University of Maine's Climate Change Institute. "That space is our greatest asset because it allows us to choose our future."

Breeding conditions for the locust swarms that ravaged farms across East Africa were made more likely by climate change

Renewable energy has grown so cheap that world leaders could cut fossil fuel emissions swiftly

'To avoid collapse, we have to talk about it'

In December, 250 people from a range of mostly academic backgrounds signed an open letter that described the collapse of civilization as a credible scenario this century. "It's not a scientific position, it's a philosophical one," said Raphael Stevens, an independent researcher who helped draft the letter. "To avoid [collapse], we have to talk about it."

Climate scientists are experts in the physical phenomena, "but who has the expertise about what those physical changes are going to cause to happen in the world?" asked Margaret Klein Salamon, a clinical psychologist and activist who has written a self-help book about the climate emergency.

DOOMSDAY TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE: VISITING NATURAL WONDERS BEFORE THEY DISAPPEAR

Transient treasure

Of the 2 million-odd people who visit the Great Barrier Reef annually, a 2016 survey found that 69 percent were coming to see the UNESCO World Heritage site "before it's too late." And no wonder. The IPCC says that even if we manage to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, 99 percent of the world's coral will be wiped out. Tourists can hasten their demise by touching or polluting reefs. PHOTOS 12345678

"The burden of proof is assumed to be with the collapsologists," said Salamon, "but I would like to see proof that 1 billion people can be refugees and not have that collapse." She was referring to a widely publicized report in September that claimed 1.2 billion people will become climate refugees by 2050.

But migration experts from three organizations told DW the report misused data by summing snapshots of internal displacement to arrive at an exaggerated figure of cross-border migration. The Institute for Economics and Peace, the think tank behind the study, quietly deleted a graph with the incorrect analysis but did not retract the estimate.

"The figure itself, to put it pretty politely, is fiction," said Sarah Nash, a political scientist at the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna.

Cities like Karachi, Pakistan, have already been forced to adapt to increasingly extreme weather

How does the climate crisis make you feel?

The prospect of collapse has forced scientists and activists to confront a practical question: Does talking about climate change in extreme terms inspire people to act urgently or push them deep into despair?

"Doom-mongering, ironically, is one way to disengage us," said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University who argues in a new book that it has overtaken denial as a threat to the climate. "If we are led to believe it's too late to do anything, then why do anything?"

Yet while hope is often held up as the best motivator of action, research has shown that anger and fear are also powerful drivers of change — if people feel they can shape their lives.

In cities like Jakarta, Indonesia, rising sea levels combine with sinking land to leave coastal communities vulnerable to floods

In March, a study in the Journal of Climate Change and Health found that people who felt angry about climate change were more likely to take part in collective action than those who felt anxious about it, and report better mental health than those who feel depressed by it. "We don't want people to be hopeful, we want people to be angry and we want people to act," said Tan.

Some people warning of collapse are "obviously channeling their anxieties into action and raising awareness, but they're not the majority of voters," added Gill, from the University of Maine, who has increasingly received emails from young people feeling hopeless, depressed and even suicidal because of alarmist claims.

"I'm not going to grieve a planet whose obituary hasn't been published yet."

CLIMATE CHANGE STRIKES WORLDWIDE — IN PICTURES

Diving in with the rest

Young activists in Berlin took a dip in the city's Spree River to demonstrate their desire for more action on climate change. Their protest took place as Germany's upper house of parliament passed a raft of measures aimed at cutting emissions. However, critics of the package said it did not go far enough.  PHOTOS 1

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Should the EU help legalize cannabis farms in Morocco?

Political fights are delaying Morocco's legalization of cannabis. But, thanks to the rise of medical marijuana, the measure fits well with EU development aims and international drug policy.



Morocco's cannabis farms are illegal but tolerated by authorities

Should draft legislation clear the final hurdles in the next few weeks, Morocco could become the second Arab country to legalize cannabis. Lebanon was the first in 2020.

According to various international agencies, including the UN and the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction, Morocco is one of the world's largest producers of cannabis and the biggest supplier of illegal by-products such as hashish that are bound for the EU. Legalizing cannabis for medical and industrial purposes could have a positive impact on around a million subsistence farmers, mostly in the north of the country.

The law has become one of the most divisive topics in the run-up to Morocco's national elections in September. It is hard to know whether the draft law will pass, Khalid Mouna, an associate anthropology professor at Moulay Ismail University in Meknes, northern Morocco, told DW. Mouna studies cannabis-grower communities. "The project is still up for debate in the first chamber and it is being weaponized by political adversaries," he said.

'Behind the government'

Cannabis legalization has been suggested before in Morocco. Mouna said that had mostly been a tactic to gain the support of voters in deprived cannabis-growing areas.

This time could be different, said Tom Blickman, a researcher on international drugs policy for the Amsterdam-based Transnational Institute. "I think it's serious because the initiative comes from the government, and behind the government is the palace," he said, referring to the Moroccan royal family. "Previous proposals came from the opposition."

MOROCCO PRODUCED BLONDE, RED AND PEPPER HASH

The majority of Morocco's cannabis is turned into hashish for recreational use

Morocco's current progress toward legalization began in December at a meeting of the UN's Commission on Narcotic Drugs in Austria. Morocco was the only member country from the region to vote with other nations who also wanted to reclassify cannabis. The World Health Organization has recommended that cannabis be removed from a list of dangerous drugs so that medical usage can be researched.

The UN vote, which saw the motion passed by a narrow margin, cleared the way for Moroccan Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit to introduce the draft law on cannabis legalization in Parliament in April. The government has approved the bill: Now MPs must ratify it.

Green gold rush

Presenting the bill, Laftit said legalizing cannabis would help improve the lives of low-income cannabis farmers, extract them from international drug smuggling networks and lead to better environmental outcomes in areas of Morocco where the crop is traditionally grown.

Most of the country's cannabis comes from the economically depressed Rif region in the north, where farms are an open secret. But at the same time that farms are tolerated, the farmers themselves often live in poverty and fear.

Moroccan Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit

The draft bill proposes a national agency for cannabis and farmers' cooperatives to regulate the sector. If cannabis were legalized, "Morocco would be ideally positioned to reap a huge influx in investment toward the infrastructure necessary to serve its lucrative market," a 2019 report by cannabis market research company New Frontier Data concluded. The researchers added that it would also allow the Moroccan growers to diversify into other cannabis-related products.

Morocco also has "a unique advantage, just being so close to the European market," John Kagia, New Frontier Data's chief knowledge officer, told DW. Cannabis from there is usually of high quality, he said.

Islamist objections

There are some serious political obstacles being placed in the way of an official cannabis industry in Morocco though. A senior member of the Moroccan Justice and Development Party (PJD), Abdelilah Benkirane, also a former prime minister, suspended his membership in the conservative, Islamist party this month. He did so because the PJD had dropped its opposition to legalizing cannabis cultivation for medical and industrial purposes. The PJD leads the current coalition government but has lost popular support during the pandemic.

BEAUTY, EH

Much of Morocco's cannabis comes from the mountainous northern Rif region

Politicians also vigorously debated which parliamentary committees would need to vet the draft bill. Critics said this was another way of prolonging its passage.

And, in April, farmers' groups in northern cannabis-producing regions announced that they also want to amend the draft law. Many say they were not adequately consulted.

For example, the legalization of cannabis farming may cause operations to set up in regions more suitable for agriculture, and farmers in the north want to restrict future growing to areas where the crop has historically been tended. It could also lower prices they get for their crops. The farmers have also called for an amnesty for the more than 40,000 people who have arrest warrants out for them because of involvement in the trade.

Alternatives to crime

Blickman said EU governments could do more to help support the legalization campaign in Morocco by emphasizing what is known as "alternative development."

Originally, "alternative development" came about because "the lack of success and the high financial and social costs of the ‘war on drugs' [caused] many countries to rethink their policies," according to an October 2020 strategy paper by Germany's Economic Cooperation and Development Ministry.

Medical products made from cannabis are increasingly popular

At first, alternative development meant finding other sources of income for farmers who had been involved in growing illicit drug crops, such as bananas, cocoa, coffee, livestock or even fish. Cannabis, for medical use, has recently become one of those alternatives.

"More and more countries, including Germany, are adopting laws to regulate the medical use," the government's strategy paper noted. "This might increase the demand for legally cultivated medical cannabis and open up development potentials in regions in which cannabis has only been grown illegally to date."

Kagia said there was a strong connection between the idea of development and the commercial market. Most of the countries that are currently trying to legalize cannabis cultivation plan to export to Europe, he said. "And without the commercial markets in Europe, cannabis as a tool for development does not work. A well-regulated medical cannabis market is going to be the principle catalyst for the industry's growth."

Toxic atmosphere

"It would be good for Europe to be more open to seeing how they can assist in setting up this industry by, for instance, importing medical cannabis from Morocco to Germany — the biggest medical cannabis market at the moment," Blickman said. "A favorable statement from countries with medicinal cannabis programs could help."

Driss Benhima, a former director of the government-run Development Agency of Northern Morocco who has led multiple studies of cannabis farming in the area and advised the government on the topic, agreed that if Europe facilitated imports, it would help his country.

Firstly, he says, it will help preserve the natural environment, "which is deeply harmed by the intensive agriculture used in the illicit cannabis production." And secondly, and perhaps most importantly, it will help in terms of what he describes as "the toxic lack of confidence between cannabis farmers and national public institutions," which has handicapped past development projects in this area.

"I hope legalization will change all of that," Benhima told DW, "and lead to decent revenues, social integration and protection of environment."