Monday, March 14, 2022

SOCIALIST EL PRESIDENTE
The Left Wins in the Colombian Parliamentary Elections


Historical Pact presidential candidate Gustavo Petro (C), March, 2022. | Photo: Twitter/ @theblazetrends

TELESUR
Published 14 March 2022 

Regarding the presidential primary elections, the leftist senator Gustavo Petro prevailed this Sunday with over 80 percent of the votes.

On Sunday, the Historical Pact, a coalition that brings together the bulk of the Colombian left, won 17 seats in the Senate and 25 seats in the House of Representatives. In these elections, the big loser was the Democratic Center, a right-wing party led by former President Alvaro Uribe that had been the main political force in the country until now.

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However, the Colombian right, although fragmented into six parties, will continue to be a majority in Congress, which will force the Historical Pact to seek alliances with the Green Alliance Coalition and the Hope Center, both of which have 14 seats in the Senate.

In the upper house, the rest of the positions were reached by the Conservative Party (15), the Liberal Party (15), the Democratic Center (14), Radical Change (11), the U Party (10) and the Coalition Mira-Colombia Free Fair (4).

In these elections, Colombians elected for the first time the representatives for the 16 Special Transitory Circumscriptions of Peace (CITREP), which are a mechanism designed so that the victims of the armed conflict can enter the House of Representatives.


Among the chosen leftist lawmakers are Maria Jose Pizarro, Alexander Lopez, Aida Avella, Roy Barreras, Ivan Cepeda, Isabel Zuleta, Esmeralda Hernandez, and Maria Fernanda Carrascal.

In the right-wing forces, the Democratic Center candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, former Secretary of the Government of Bogota, was the most voted politician of all the candidates for the Senate. His party will be the predominant force with 19 senators.

In the Lower House, the Democratic Center lost 17 seats, going from 32 representatives to 15 in these elections. Another big loser on the right was "Radical Change", a party which barely got 11 seats in the Senate and 16 in the Lower House.

Regarding the presidential primary elections, the leftist senator Gustavo Petro prevailed this Sunday with over 80 percent of the votes, thus consecrating himself as the presidential candidate of the Historic Pact for the elections to be held in May, in which the Hope Center candidate Sergio Fajardo and the Liberal Party candidate Juan Galan will also take part.


Colombia leftist wins decisive presidential primary victory

Ex-guerrilla member Gustavo Petro leads the field to become the next president of Colombia, with leftist candidates projected to win most seats in the Senate.

Colombia has always been ruled by the political right, but polls show that Petro stands a real chance of winning. (AA)

Colombians have voted for senator and former guerrilla Gustavo Petro as the left's presidential nominee by a wide margin, making him the front runner in an election that could yield the country's first-ever leftist leader in May.

As predicted, the 61-year-old came out on top in the primaries on Sunday - called inter-party "consultations" - which took place alongside elections for the Senate and House of Representatives, currently in the hands of right-wing parties.

But leftist candidates were projected to win the most seats in Colombia's Senate, as well as contending for second place in the lower house, partial results showed.

With more than 90 percent of polling stations counted, the left's Historical Pact coalition is set to win 17 of the 102 seats in the upper house, according to electoral authority figures.

In the lower house, it looks set to take 25 of the 165 seats in a tie with the Conservatives and behind the Liberals.

Nearly 39 million of Colombia's 50 million inhabitants were eligible to vote in a complex but critical election in a country plagued by violence and growing poverty levels.


'Rejection of violence'


Outgoing President Ivan Duque - who called on Colombians to vote as a "rejection of violence" through the "triumph of democracy" - had promised safety "guarantees" for the non-compulsory vote.

The polls came with the president and legislature both at rock-bottom levels of public support.

Centrist Ingrid Betancourt, who was once held hostage by the guerrillas of the now-defunct Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), won her coalition's nomination on Sunday. She presents herself as an alternative to both the ruling right and Petro.



Sunday's process is to yield three presidential contenders from 15 candidates hoping to represent groups of politically aligned parties - one each for the left, right and center. Three others have already been chosen by their respective groupings.

Six finalists will face off in a first round of presidential elections on May 29, which will be followed by a runoff on June 19 if no one wins an outright majority.

Petro came away with more than 80 percent of the vote for the Historical Pact coalition, winning against environmentalist Francia Marquez, who snagged 15 percent of the left's vote, to represent the group at the polls this spring.


Colombia election proceeding with no incidents, but with Web site failure

Bogota, Mar 13 (FE).- Colombian authorities reported Sunday that election day is proceeding without any major incidents or disturbances, despite failures in the Web page of the National Voter Registry, the organizer of the elections, although officials are – at present – ruling out a cyberattack.

Defense Minister Diego Molano held a press conference at the Unified Command Post and reported complete normality in all election-related security matters around the country.

The government has mobilized more than 241,000 soldiers and police nationwide to guard the 14,228 precincts.

Molano invited Colombians to participate in the election “with complete freedom and calm.”

The National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group, which last month began an “armed halt” to its military activities in several regions of the country, declared a unilateral cease-fire for the election period, which began on March 10 and will run until midnight on the 14th.

On March 13, Colombians are heading to the polls to elect the members of the Senate and House of Representatives, as well as the presidential hopefuls from three political coalitions in a kind of primary.

Citizens in certain rural zones will also be able to select 16 representatives in a first-of-its-kind project of setting aside seats in Congress for people who suffered during decades of armed conflict.

Meanwhile, however, failures were reported on the Voter Registry’s Web site with users saying that they cannot check certain things, according to dozens of complaints posted on the social networks.

The Registry said that the failures of the platform were due to the large number of people attempting to access it or who were using it, adding that authorities are working to fully reestablish service.

Regarding these problems, the head of the National Police, Gen. Jorge Luis Vargas, said at a press conference that, so far, no reports have been received of any cyberattack on the Registry’s Web site, adding that the difficulties there seem to stem merely from technical issues.

In addition, he said that the Registry itself is operating normally and people may contact it directly to ask for voting information.

Given this incident, the cybernetic capabilities of the Defense Ministry have been strengthened to counteract any threat that might adversely affect election operations.

Nearly 400 candidates have thrown their hats into the ring for one of the 16 so-called “peace seats” now available in the lower house of Congress.

All of these seats are in Temporary Special Peace Districts (CITREP) established in rural areas that were particularly affected by the multisided conflict involving government forces, leftist guerrillas, right-wing paramilitaries and criminal organization seeking to exploit the five-decade-long war.

EFE

lmg/joc/lll/bp


International Campaign to Lift Siege on Yemen Launched

Siege and starvation are weapons used by America, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and the United Nations against the children and women of Yemen. We must end the siege. | Photo: Twitter @jalal_mansor

Published 14 March 2022

Yemen is living under tragic humanitarian conditions at all levels due to the arbitrary siege imposed on the country by the Saudi-led coalition.

Activists, human rights activists, and media professionals around the world launched a wide international campaign on social media demanding ending the siege on Yemen, the country plunged into the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. Many activists interacted with the campaign on Twitter under the hashtag #EndTheSiegeOnYemen.

RELATED:
UNICEF: 10 200 Children Killed or Injured by Saudi War in Yemen

The campaign was launched under the title "End the Siege on Yemen" with the aim of shedding light on the forgotten suffering of the Yemeni people as a result of the blockade imposed by the Saudi-led coalition on the country and mobilizing efforts to end it right now.

Yemen is living under tragic humanitarian conditions at all levels due to the arbitrary siege imposed on the country by the Saudi-led coalition.

On his part, Member of the Supreme Political Council in Yemen Muhammad Ali Al-Houthi, tweeted, "In the name of the oppressed Yemeni people, we extend our great thanks to the activists from the Arab brethren and friends in the world who launched a campaign to end the unjust siege on Yemen, and we call on our people to interact with it on various social media platforms under the hashtag #EndTheSiegeOnYemen," both in Arabic and English.



Moreover, the Minister of Information in the Sanaa government, Daifallah Al-Shami expressed his "thanks, appreciation, and gratitude to the free voices from all over the world who feel the suffering of our Yemeni people who will not forget these sincere stances and will reciprocate loyalty.

Earlier today, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) highlighted that Yemeni children are the “first and most to suffer” from the war on Yemen. UNICEF reported that at least 10,000 minors were killed or injured and 400,000 were malnourished since the Saudi-led coalition launched its aggression against Yemen in 2015.

Philippe Duamelle, the UNICEF representative to Yemen, pointed out that “just over the first two months of this year, 47 children were reportedly killed or maimed in several locations" across the country. In total, "the UN verified that more than 10,200 children have been killed or injured" since the beginning of the war on Yemen, Duamelle indicated.

He confirmed that "the actual number is likely much higher.”

Public opinion ‘slowly and surely’ shifting on Ukraine invasion, says Russian investigative journalist

Presenter 13 Mar 2022

We spoke to the Russian investigative journalist and broadcaster Yevgenia Albats, whose websites and broadcasts have now been blocked by the Russian authorities. 

CENSORSHIP IS CENSORSHIP IS...

Le Figaro Censors Journalist Anne Laure Bonnel's Donbas Article

Image of the documentary that YouTube removed from its platform due to its "inappropriate content". | Photo: Twitter/ @GOSTP50739
Published 13 March 2022 

TELESUR

As part of the global strategy aimed at suppressing alternative views, her documentary "Donbas" was also banned from YouTube earlier this month.

On Saturday, French film director and war reporter Anne-Laure Bonnel rejected that the newspaper Le Figaro deleted her article on the life of the civilian population of the Donbas region from its platforms.

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US Journalist Killed In Ukraine Did Not Work For Us: NY Times

"Why this censorship? Ask about it. You will be outraged," she tweeted and attached a screenshot that shows the access to the publication entitled 'The Donbas, where it all began' banning from the Le Figaro Facebook page.

This journalist, who covers the armed conflict in Ukraine from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) territory, has been criticized for sticking to the arguments of the Russian authorities and denouncing the wrongdoing of the Ukrainian troops.

"My work has no political message. I just film and photograph dozens of dead and wounded people every day," Bonnel told outlet CNews and condemned that the Kyiv government consider such persons as terrorists.

“For over eight years, these left-behind people have lived in cellars without access to a job and other fundamental rights for the full enjoyment of a dignified life,” she stressed, recalling that Le Figaro has not yet explained the censorship.



“French editors seem to have forgotten the principles established in the Declaration of the duties and rights of journalists by adopting dishonest actions that respond to the coercion of external forces,” Bonnel added.

As part of the global strategy aimed at suppressing alternative views, her testimonial documentary “Donbas” was also banned from the YouTube platform earlier this month. “We must not remain blind to the human brutality acts like war. Only this way, we will not forget what they can do to us,” this journalist stated.



An ancient language has defied translation for 100 years. Can AI crack the code?



Illustrations by Somnath Bhatt for Rest of World

By ALIZEH KOHARI
8 FEBRUARY 2022 • KARACHI, PAKISTAN

LONG READ

Jiaming Luo grew up in mainland China thinking about neglected languages. When he was younger, he wondered why the different languages his mother and father spoke were often lumped together as Chinese “dialects.”

When he became a computer science doctoral student at MIT in 2015, his interest collided with his advisor’s long-standing fascination with ancient scripts. After all, what could be more neglected — or, to use Luo’s more academic term, “lower resourced” — than a long-lost language, left to us as enigmatic symbols on scattered fragments? “I think of these languages as mysteries,” Luo told Rest of World over Zoom. “That’s definitely what attracts me to them.”

In 2019, Luo made headlines when, working with a team of fellow MIT researchers, he brought his machine-learning expertise to the decipherment of ancient scripts. He and his colleagues developed an algorithm informed by patterns in how languages change over time. They fed their algorithm words in a lost language and in a known related language; its job was to align words from the lost language with their counterparts in the known language. Crucially, the same algorithm could be applied to different language pairs.

Luo and his colleagues tested their model on two ancient scripts that had already been deciphered: Ugaritic, which is related to Hebrew, and Linear B, which was first discovered among Bronze Age–era ruins on the Greek island of Crete. It took professional and amateur epigraphists — people who study ancient written matter — nearly six decades of mental wrangling to decode Linear B. Officially, 30-year-old British architect Michael Ventris is primarily credited with its decipherment, although the private efforts of classicist Alice Kober lay the groundwork for his breakthrough. Sitting night after night at her dining table in Brooklyn, New York, Kober compiled a makeshift database of Linear B symbols, comprising 180,000 paper slips filed in cigarette boxes, and used those to draw important conclusions about the nature of the script. She died in 1950, two years before Ventris cracked the code. Linear B is now recognized as the earliest form of Greek.

Luo and his team wanted to see if their machine-learning model could get to the same answer, but faster. The algorithm yielded what was called “remarkable accuracy”: it was able to correctly translate 67.3% of Linear B’s words into their modern-day Greek equivalents. According to Luo, it took between two and three hours to run the algorithm once it had been built, cutting out the days or weeks — or months or years — that it might take to manually test out a theory by translating symbols one by one. The results for Ugaritic showed an improvement on previous attempts at automatic decipherment.

The work raised an intriguing proposition. Could machine learning assist researchers in their quests to crack other, as-yet undeciphered scripts — ones that have so far resisted all attempts at translation? What historical secrets might be unlocked as a result?


British India, 1872-1873. Alexander Cunningham, an English army engineer turned archeological surveyor, clomped about the ruins of a town in Punjab province that locals called Harappa. On the face of it, there wasn’t much to survey: about two decades earlier, engineers working to link the cities of Lahore and Multan had stumbled across the site and used many of the bricks they found — perfectly preserved, fire kilned — as ballast for nearly 100 miles of railway track, blithely unaware they were remnants of one of the world’s oldest civilizations.

Jiaming Luo, a Phd student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Tim Dunk for Rest of World

Cunningham didn’t know this either — the Indus Valley civilization wouldn’t be formally “discovered” until the 1920s — but he knew the site had some historical value. Burrowing through the ruins, he and his team chanced upon stone implements they surmised were used for scraping wood or leather. They gathered shards of ancient pottery and what appeared to be a clay ladle. The most striking discovery, though, was a tiny stone tablet, roughly 1.5 inch by 1.5 inch. “On it is engraved very deeply a bull, without a hump, looking to the right, with two stars under the neck,” Cunningham wrote in his report. “Above the bull there is an inscription in six characters, which are quite unknown to me. They are certainly not Indian letters; and as the bull which accompanies them is without a hump, I conclude that the seal is foreign to India.”

I have a cheap replica of that first seal, bought years ago from a museum gift shop at one of the Indus Valley sites: the animal on it has a thick neck, a lumpen torso, and a single swooping horn. Some people insist it is a unicorn. The inscription scrawled above it resembles a string of hieroglyphics; one character looks like a fish. In the century and a half since the discovery of the first seal, thousands more have been unearthed: 90% of them along the Indus River in modern-day Pakistan, the remaining in India or as far afield as modern-day Iraq.

We know now that these tablets, described by one excavator as “little masterpieces of controlled realism,” are indigenous to the Indian subcontinent; researchers believe they were probably used to close documents and mark packages of goods, which is why they are referred to as seals. In part because of how the symbols in the inscriptions jostle each other at one end, almost as if the inscriber had run out of space, researchers have concluded that the inscriptions are meant to be read right to left. But we still don’t know what they actually say.

A stone stamp-seal found at Harappa in the Indus Valley, mondern-day Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh provinces. The Trustees of the British Museum

This isn’t from a lack of trying. Scholars often point out that the Indus script, as the collection of some 4,000 excavated inscriptions, comprising between 400 and roughly 700 unique symbols, is known, might be one of the most deciphered scripts in history. More than a hundred attempts have been published since the 1920s. One theory links it to the Rongorongo script of Easter Island, also still undeciphered; another, offered by a German tantric guru claiming to have achieved his solution through meditation, links it to the cuneiform script used to write the Sumerian language.

For some groups in South Asia, the quest to decode the Indus script is almost existential. India and Pakistan, increasingly riven by their respective strains of religious nationalism, have markedly different relationships to their shared ancient past. The Pakistani state, deeply wedded to the idea of itself as a Muslim homeland, largely ignores its pre-Islamic heritage; its Indian counterpart, on the other hand, has taken to scouring history to find justification for the claim that India has always been a Hindu nation.

Up until the discovery of Harappa, the earliest Indians were believed to be people who lived between 1500 and 500 B.C. and composed the Vedas, the Sanskrit texts that form the basis of modern-day Hinduism. The discovery of a civilization of people who lived before the Vedic people upended the story of India. Given that it undermines their claims of indigeneity, proponents of Hindutva — the most mainstream strain of Hindu nationalism — balk at the theory of a pre-Vedic civilization, even as evidence for it accumulates across disciplines, including archaeology, genetics, and linguistics.

The smallest of advances in Indus Valley research, therefore, tends to reverberate far beyond the confines of academics. Attempts to prove that the Indus people worshipped Hindu gods and spoke an earlier form of Sanskrit continue unabated. In 2000, one researcher even digitally distorted an image of an Indus seal to make the animal on it look like a horse, which figures prominently in Sanskrit literature.

Politics aside, it is remarkable how little we know about the original people of the Indus Valley, who at one point constituted nearly 10% of the world’s inhabitants. It is especially galling given how much more we know about their contemporaries, such as the people of the Egyptian and Mesopotamian civilizations. Part of the reason for this is the continued elusiveness of the Indus script.



Putting machines to work on the Indus script is trickier than using them to reverse-engineer Linear B. We don’t have a great deal of information about the Indus script: most crucially, we don’t know what other language it may be related to. As a result, a model like Luo’s wouldn’t work for the Indus script. That’s not to say technology can’t help, though. In some ways, computer modeling has already played a crucial role: by showing that the Indus script is a language at all.

For most of the 20th century, the Indus inscriptions were widely accepted as representations of an undeciphered language. Then, in 2004, a group of Harvard researchers — cultural neurobiologist and comparative historian Steve Farmer, computational theorist Richard Sproat, and philologist Michael Witzel — published a paper essentially rubbishing nearly all existing research on the matter. The Indus seals, they claimed, were nothing more than a collection of religious or political symbols — similar to, say, highway signs — and all attempts to decipher them as a language were a waste of time. To underscore their point, Farmer offered a $10,000 reward to anyone who could find an Indus inscription containing at least 50 symbols.

Most Indologists and other Indus script researchers dismissed these arguments. One group of mathematicians, however, turned to computers to investigate the claims. Ronojoy Adhikari, a professor of statistical physics at the University of Cambridge, was one of them.

Before Cambridge, Adhikari worked at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, in Chennai. In 2009, he attended a talk by Iravatham Mahadevan, an Indian civil servant turned epigraphist. Mahadevan, who died in 2018, had already cracked Tamil-Brahmi, another undeciphered script, then turned his attention to the Indus script.

Ronojoy Adhikari, a professor of statistical physics at the University of Cambridge. 
Tim Dunk for Rest of World

Adhikari remembers being fascinated. “I’m a person from the sciences; I don’t have a humanities background,” he said. “But what I found very attractive in Mahadevan’s way of looking at the problem was that he had a very quantitative, almost scientific, approach. He was asking, how many times does a particular symbol occur? What does it occur against? What is the context in which it is occurring? And it appeared to me that because it had already been so quantified, it would be easy to translate this into a formal mathematical analysis.”

A few other data scientists in attendance joined forces with Adhikari. They knew they couldn’t decipher the script. “So the question we asked was: Can we at least tell whether it’s conveying any sort of linguistic information?”

Led by computer scientist Rajesh Rao, the researchers devised a computer program to see if they could answer this question: Was the Indus script a language? “You can give me any sequence of symbols, I don’t care what they are — hieroglyphics, written language, sheet music, computer code — and I will look at them from the point of view of a mathematician,” explained Adhikari. “Meaning, I will simply count how many times one sign occurs next to another.”

“So the question we asked was: can we at least tell whether it’s conveying any sort of linguistic information?”

Their program drew on the work of Claude E. Shannon, a mid-century American mathematician, engineer, and decoder of wartime codes, who formulated the notion of information entropy — essentially a mathematical measure of disorder. In linguistic systems, symbols occur with somewhat fixed frequencies. “For instance, I just can’t pick up a letter from the alphabet, string it with another letter from the alphabet, and expect to get an English word,” explained Adhikari. In common English, for instance, the letter “q” is nearly always followed by “u.” This semiflexibility is a marker of all linguistic systems. Computer code, on the other hand, is completely rigid: the slightest deviation, and it falls apart.
A stamp-seal carved from grey steatite with a rhinoceros and an inscription in the Indus script, found at the Mohenjo-daro archaeological site in Sindh, Pakistan.
The Trustees of the British Museum

The researchers fed their program the 4,000 inscriptions that form the entirety of the Indus script. For good measure, they also ran the program on other linguistic samples (English characters and words, Sanskrit, Tamil, Sumer, and Tagalog) and some nonlinguistic scripts (DNA, protein, Beethoven’s Sonata no. 32, and a computer code called Fortran). The program took about 45 minutes.

“I remember the first time that plot was generated,” recalled Adhikari. On the graph, the curves depicting music, protein, and DNA sequences hovered high, close to the maximum level of entropy, indicating a high level of randomness. Lower down, the known languages are all in a tight cluster. Fortran appears further below.

As for the Indus script, it appears with the other languages, just under Sanskrit and mapping almost cleanly onto Tamil. “It felt fantastic. It really felt very good. It’s nice to have a hunch, but to be able to prove it — I remember thinking, Yes, we’ve really got something here.”


There is a big difference, of course, between showing that a script encodes a language and decoding what it says.

Bahata Ansumali Mukhopadhyay met Adhikari over a decade ago. At the time, she was a disenchanted software developer looking for an escape route. When Adhikari, who had begun exploring deep learning approaches to work on the script, was in the market for an assistant, she eagerly volunteered.

Deep learning is the dominant technique in artificial intelligence today. It is primarily a form of pattern recognition: the more data you feed a machine, the better it becomes at interpreting future data. But the large-dataset approach isn’t particularly useful when it comes to low-resource (to use Luo’s term) subjects, such as the Indus script, where data is limited. Mukhopadhyay was quick to realize this.

“I was supposed to be coding,” she said sheepishly. “But, I spent most of my time reading.”

Mukhopadhyay went down one rabbit hole after another. She parsed Mesopotomian, Akkadian, Sumerian, and Old Persian dictionaries. She taught herself how to read Egyptian hieroglyphics. “I realized just how subtle symbolism can be,” she said. “Like the god Horus, his eye was torn into fragments. Each part is imagined as a fraction — and then from there, the ancient Egyptians created their symbols for fractions.”

“Here you have to understand the historical symbolism used in India. How will artificial intelligence tackle that?”

Even as she helped build software to aid research on the Indus script, her doubts about the approach were building. “See, if the Indus script were an alpha syllabary [a writing system split into units of consonants and vowels, as in Urdu/Hindi], then machine learning and artificial intelligence would have been very suitable,” she explained. But because the inscriptions appear to be pictorial in nature, they posed a greater challenge. “Here you have to understand the historical symbolism used in India. How will artificial intelligence tackle that? How would AI know these symbols represent the fragments of Horus’ eye?”

For the past few years, Mukhopadhyay has been independently researching the Indus inscriptions, focusing on individual symbols. This involves coming up with a particular theory and then testing it — something computers aren’t very good at.
Bahata Ansumali Mukhopadhyay, a researcher of Indus script. 
Tim Dunk for Rest of World

Mukhopadhyay’s theory, for which she made a case in a peer-reviewed paper in Nature, is that the Indus seals were used for taxation and trade control — a collector might carry one around, for instance, as a sort of license. In a subsequent paper, by examining words used for “elephant” — piri, piru, pilu —and “ivory” — pirus — in near Eastern languages at the time of the Indus civilization, she has argued that the Indus people spoke an earlier form of Dravidian, the linguistic ancestor of current languages like Telugu, Tamil, and Kannada. If researchers can successfully identify a contemporary linguistic relation to the Indus script, it could hold the key to deciphering it. As Mukhopadhyay explains her work, her earrings jiggle. They are artsy depictions of elephant heads. “Pilu,” she said, smiling.

“I think there are many aspects of cognition we cannot encode in a convenient framework.”

Current iterations of AI aren’t designed to deploy the sort of approach adopted by Mukhopadhyay. Adhikari, who is now also less bullish about the prospect of machine decipherment, is skeptical it ever will be. “I think there are many aspects of cognition we cannot encode in a convenient framework,” he said. “I wouldn’t hazard a guess, but I don’t see it happening in my lifetime. I think we need to understand our brains much better.” Moreover, he added, not all information is quantifiable in a way that computers can understand. “A machine understands one, two, three very well. Two plus two equals four, yes. But …” His gaze drifted beyond his computer screen. “But that this sunset here looks like a beautiful flame — well, it is this sort of abstraction that holds the key to this script.”



Regardless of the approach used, AI is dependent on high-quality data being available in a machine-readable format. This remains a key challenge when it comes to ancient texts, given that they often come to us chipped, eroded, or incomplete in some other form. Scholars can spend decades debating the uniqueness of symbols: Is that a scratch next to a known character, for instance, or a new character altogether? Given how little there is to work with when it comes to long-lost languages, noisy or incomplete data can seriously curtail decipherment efforts.

For the past two decades, Vancouver-based Bryan K. Wells and Berlin-based Andreas Fuls have been quietly digitizing all known Indus seals and symbols. They append contextual information — such as where they were excavated, when, and alongside what artifacts — and add new ones as they are excavated. The Interactive Corpus of Indus Texts (ICIT) currently contains information about 4,537 inscribed artifacts, 5,509 texts, and 19,616 sign occurrences, featuring a total of 707 unique Indus symbols — a much higher number than the 417 previously identified.

A stamp-seal made of glazed white steatite with a bull standing over a manger, found in Babylon, Iraq. 
The Trustees of the British Museum

The earlier corpora were compiled by hand. As a result, Wells argues, they were so limited that they risked undermining script research. “You know the old computer saying,” he said recently over Skype, “Garbage in, garbage out.” Nearly 50 researchers around the world currently use the database.

For now, the mysteries of the Indus script continue to elude decipherment. Last year, in a follow-up paper to their work automating the decoding of Ugaritic and Linear B, Luo and his team made a small but crucial advance: an algorithm aimed at identifying possible related languages of undeciphered writing systems. Potentially, this could help address the problem of deciphering scripts that don’t yet have a known language they can be compared against. When Luo and his team tested their model on the Iberian language, which has historically been linked to Basque, their findings suggested the two languages were not in fact close enough to be related — a conclusion that corroborated recent scholarship on the matter.

But while Iberian, said Luo, has at least 80 unique symbols, the Indus script has at least 400, making it exponentially more challenging. Still, theoretically speaking, modern machines can handle this level of computation. Could it be possible simply to “brute force” a problem like the Indus script — to analyze it against all contemporary South Asian languages and see which emerges as its closest linguistic relation? “That’s a good thought,” Luo said, after pausing to think. “If I had time, I would definitely try that.”

Luo is quick to point out that he doesn’t expect any decipherment of lost languages to be fully automated. “My thinking is: Let the system propose a list of candidates and let the experts see, Okay, maybe this theory is more correct than the other,” he said. “It definitely reduces the effort and the number of hours that experts have to expend.”

Not everyone is willing to entertain help from machines. Before settling on Iberian, Luo and his colleagues had considered tackling Etruscan, an undeciphered script from pre-Roman Italy. “One of our co-authors emailed a bunch of professors working in this field,” recalled Luo, chuckling. One of them wrote back, shooing them away. “He replied in quite angry tones, ‘machines can never compete with humans.’”


Alizeh Kohari is a Pakistani journalist who divides her time between Karachi and Mexico City.

Indus stamp-seal images are used under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) license. Alterations are limited to background removal and cropping.
LONG READ

AMERICAN libertarian ‘startup city’ in Honduras faces its biggest hurdle: the locals

Próspera was supposed to be a privatized, Silicon Valley-funded paradise — but it's a hard sell for the neighbors.

Villagers on the Honduran island of Roatán thought Próspera was just another resort.

In actuality, it was a whole new city — a libertarian experiment backed by leading Silicon Valley figures.


Próspera’s founders promised to enrich the local community, even supplying water to a nearby village.



But relations with neighboring communities deteriorated. Then, Próspera turned off the taps.

5 OCTOBER 2021

A libertarian ‘startup city’ in Honduras faces its biggest hurdle: the locals

Roatán
The island of Roatán is approximately 65 kilometres off the northern coast of Honduras.

One Friday evening last September, a squad of police officers arrived in Crawfish Rock, a secluded fishing village on the Caribbean island of Roatán, where homes of weather-worn clapboard painted pastel hues perch atop cement pilings.

Sent to break up a public gathering deemed a violation of pandemic restrictions, they found a modest crowd assembled in front of a turquoise house just off the village square. Erick Brimen, a 37-year-old Venezuelan, stood on the raised porch, illuminated by klieg lights, a laptop open on the railing in front of him. He wore work boots, a beige baseball cap, a surgical mask, and a short-sleeved button-down tucked into faded khakis, attire that recalled a suburban construction contractor, which, in a sense, he was.

In 2017, Brimen, who lives in Maryland, secured a plot of land next door to Crawfish Rock. Until recently, many villagers had been under the impression that he and his team were developing some kind of resort. American cruise ships had begun to call at Roatán in the 1990s, and soon, hotels had sprouted along the coastline. The residents of Crawfish Rock welcomed the steady work. Brimen’s development, christened Próspera, broke ground in the spring of 2020, and not long afterward, community leaders were disturbed to learn that the project was far more radical than they had understood. Brimen had called the meeting — against the objections of local leaders — to try to assuage the community’s fears. “You all know that we have not been hiding anything,” he said to the crowd.

Próspera’s founders believe the future of government lies with privatized startup cities. They belong to a movement with deep roots in U.S. libertarian circles: one that wants to redefine citizenship and governance in tech-consumerist terms. It has gained momentum in recent years, as high-profile Silicon Valley figures, like PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, put their money behind startup city initiatives.

Some governments have been drawn to the idea, too, hoping it will attract foreign investment and spur economic growth. In 2013, Honduras passed a law allowing people like Brimen to set up semi-autonomous, privately run cities, “zonas de empleo y desarrollo económico” (zones for employment and economic development), or “ZEDEs” — pronounced “zeh-dehs.” These cities are to be governed by private investors, who can write their own laws and regulations, design their own court systems, and operate their own police forces. The Honduran government granted Próspera ZEDE status in late 2017. Subject to limited government oversight and few legal restrictions, a set of for-profit firms incorporated abroad by Brimen and his business partners will govern the city — with ambitions to expand across Roatán and onto the Honduran mainland.

Whether these kinds of projects will, as their promoters promise, bring prosperity to local citizens, is far from certain.

Since the 20th century, foreign investors have come to Honduras promising jobs and a higher standard of living. In practice, these arrangements have tended to enrich the foreigners while doing little to deliver on the promised benefits, said José Luis Palma Herrera, a Honduran researcher who has written about ZEDEs.

This year, skeptical Hondurans organized weeks of anti-ZEDE protests across the country. They fear cities like Próspera will leave ordinary people no better off than they were before, while ceding to profit-driven investors the power to decide what’s in the public interest.

In Crawfish Rock, as police climbed the porch stairs towards Brimen, he asked them to step back. Local leaders had asked him not to hold the meeting, citing public health concerns, but he’d pushed ahead regardless. “I am socially distanced,” he said as the officers approached. “I’m not hurting anybody. You might have Covid. Please protect my human rights.”

As police conferred with Brimen’s bodyguards, an officer reached calmly for his microphone. “Excuse me, sir — don’t touch me,” Brimen said, recoiling. One of his bodyguards stepped in and pushed the officer. A scuffle ensued, sending the laptop tumbling to the dirt below. As Brimen called for calm, his bodyguards hustled him down the stairs and out of view.

Brimen’s defiance of local authorities troubled Próspera skeptics. “It was unnecessary and dangerous for him to come and have a meeting,” said Venessa Cárdenas, one of the village leaders who had asked Brimen to postpone his visit. “But he needed something.” What he needed, Cárdenas came to believe, was a chance to create the appearance of engagement with the community, an illusion of transparency. If this was how Próspera’s developers behaved on other people’s turf, what would they be like once they ran the show next door?
Erick Brimen, co-founder of Próspera, speaks on the phone at a newly acquired section of property on the island in September, 2021.

Erick Brimen grew up in a well-to-do family in Venezuela. In 1998, aged 14, he moved to the U.S. to attend Hargrave Military Academy, in Virginia. Soon after, Hugo Chávez was elected president of Brimen’s home country. At first, he was “captivated by socialism’s promise of a more equal, fair and just society,” as he later wrote in an op-ed for USA Today. He soon grew disillusioned. The “system of free enterprise” he encountered as a high schooler in the United States, he wrote, “stood in stark contrast to the growing poverty, stagnation and despair in my homeland.”

After graduating from the business-focused Babson College in Massachusetts in 2006, he pursued a fairly conventional career in finance and consulting, before striking out on his own and founding two small tech companies. In 2014, he joined an initiative at Babson College, aimed at using startup cities to foster entrepreneurship in emerging economies. Brimen’s role was to help secure financing for these projects via NeWay Capital, an investment fund that he had incorporated with the tagline: “investing to alleviate poverty profitably.” The Babson initiative eventually fizzled out — a result of internal politics at the school, Brimen says — but by then, his work had introduced him to the Honduran ZEDE law.

Soon, he was a convert. In an address to a 2016 tech-libertarian conference in Austin, Texas, he explained he’d come to see poverty as essentially an antitrust problem. What government offered was simply “a basket of services,” he told his audience, “provided in a bundle for a fixed price by a single provider.” If competition and profit motive improve the quality of commercial services, couldn’t they do the same for government services?

In Guatemala, tech entrepreneur Gabriel Delgado had come to similar conclusions. Delgado was born into a family of committed economic libertarians. His grandfather founded Universidad Francisco Marroquín in Guatemala City, whose façade boasts a massive brass relief commemorating Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged.

Like Brimen, Delgado attended college in the United States, at Trinity University, in Texas. Back in Guatemala, Delgado helped found startups operating in a range of tech segments—IT security, vehicle fleet logistics, mobile app development, cryptocurrency — but he grew frustrated by the corruption. Rebuff the inevitable request for a bribe, and your paperwork would hit mysterious snags, resulting in long delays.
Gabriel Delgado, co-founder of Próspera, explains plans for the project in a building on the site in September, 2021.

Delgado joined a group seeking national-level government reform in Guatemala, ProReforma, but he found the endeavor Sisyphean. “For a long time, I said, ‘Okay, if we choose the right politician, then things are going to change,’ but that doesn’t work,” he told Rest of World over lunch earlier this year. “Any reforms that are made that are good are rolled back by the cronies. … A group of us decided that what we needed to change was not the driver, but we needed to change the vehicle we were driving in.”

Startup cities struck him as a more manageable space for smaller-scale experimentation with new modes of governance, and they appealed to his tech background and preference for laissez-faire policy.

Delgado had been drawn to Honduras during an earlier flirtation with startup cities in the country — the 2011 “charter cities” initiative, the brainchild of the American economist and Nobel laureate Paul Romer. Romer’s idea was that governments of advanced economies should build and govern new cities in emerging economies, modelling good governance practices for the hosts, while attracting foreign investors.

The Honduran charter city initiative fell apart in the fall of 2012. A few weeks before the Honduran Supreme Court ruled it unconstitutional, Romer resigned from the program, citing a lack of transparency. He had been dismayed, he wrote at the time, to learn that the government had signed a secret agreement with a consortium of investors — Delgado among them — who intended to start a charter city administered not by a foreign government but as a private for-profit enterprise.



“We’ve both experienced—though he’s experienced it more poignantly than me—how you can lose your country.”

The ZEDE law emerged from the wreckage. Enacted in 2013, it replaced the government-centered vision advanced by Romer, who has criticized the ZEDE model, with a private sector–driven approach favored by Delgado and his fellow investors. The ZEDE oversight committee was packed with libertarian figures, including the U.S. anti-tax fundamentalist Grover Norquist and one of Ronald Reagan’s sons, Michael.

In 2014, Delgado assembled a new group of investors. The universe of prospective ZEDE founders was small, and Delgado soon heard that Brimen, still at the Babson Initiative, was looking into investing in a Honduran ZEDE. Delgado reached out. The two men bonded over their common histories. “We’ve both experienced—though he’s experienced it more poignantly than me—how you can lose your country,” Delgado said.

By the middle of 2017, with the Babson initiative out of the picture, the nature of the conversation shifted. Brimen was interested in a more hands-on role than that of a mere financier, and the two joined forces. They complemented one another in useful ways. Delgado, who is in his 50s but retains the wiry frame of a long-distance runner, is a big-picture guy and possesses a pitchman’s free-wheeling enthusiasm. Brimen, meanwhile, is detail-oriented and, in conversation, tends toward the dour precision of an engineer.

The pair were drawn to Roatán by Tristan Monterroso, an evangelical pastor from the island who had attended military school with Brimen and had long agitated for his old friend to invest there.

With Monterroso’s help, they scouted locations across the island before deciding to buy the 23.5 hectares next to Crawfish Rock, which would give them a chance to prove their concept. Earlier this year, over espresso at a Roatán resort, Brimen recalled the thought process. “This is a poor community with some substantial shortfalls in service,” he told Rest of World. “It’s big enough where it’s a challenge, but it’s small enough where, given the size of our planned investments, we can really make a difference.”
Workers in Próspera’s “Beta Building” on the island of Roatán.

One morning earlier this year, Brimen met a pair of reporters from Rest of World in the parking lot of the Megaplaza shopping mall on Roatán, to take them on a tour of Próspera. Brimen had traded his construction-contractor outfit for a dad-on-safari look: olive green Columbia fishing shirt—a status brand among Honduran elites — khakis that unzipped into cargo shorts, and photochromic glasses.

Brimen’s SUV audibly struggled as it navigated the deep ruts and roller-coaster contours of the Crawfish Rock Road, dust billowing in its wake. At the turnoff for Próspera, a security guard, sidearm on his hip, emerged from a wooden shack and — whether for show or not — checked Brimen’s ID. A large sign beside the guard shack read, “Providing running water since September 2019.”

Further along, the dense roadside foliage gave way, opening onto a clearing. Próspera hopes to host medical and education complexes, a financial center, a shopping district, resorts, and hotels. Only a handful of buildings were close to completion, but if all goes according to plan, Próspera will grow from a 23.5-hectare village to a full-fledged city over the next decade.

Próspera raised $10 million in its latest funding round — twice its goal — from 30 investors, according to Brimen. Among its backers is Pronomos Capital, a venture-capital fund that, per its website, draws on “the lessons of Silicon Valley to create a new model for urban development where the city is the product.” It’s run by Patri Friedman, grandson of the economist Milton, and bankrolled by, among others, Peter Thiel.

In Próspera’s next investment round, Brimen says, his team plans to raise an additional $30 million. That still falls far short of the capital investment needed to build a city that aims to host thousands of residents by 2025, but Próspera expects real estate firms will stump up the rest of the cash. To date, the ZEDE has found one such investor, a small Honduran company called Apolo Group, which, in July, agreed to build a single mixed-use residential high rise.
Workers of foreign companies hosted at Próspera take a lunch break.

Applications for residency require a background check, a Honduran residency permit, and an annual fee — $260 per year for Hondurans and $1,300 for foreigners. Prospective residents will also have to sign something called an “agreement of coexistence,” which lays out all the rights and responsibilities of Próspera residents and Próspera’s obligations to them. Brimen characterized it as, “if you could make the social contract a real contract.” The agreement incorporates Próspera’s resident bill of rights, which is modeled on the U.S. Bill of Rights but with some decidedly libertarian twists.

Government services will be centralized and automated through ePróspera, an online portal modeled on the much-praised e-Estonia system developed by the Baltic nation. From the comfort of their homes, Prósperans will be able to pay taxes, incorporate a company, transact business, and even buy real estate. They’ll be able to vote, too, but their franchise is limited. Residents elect only five of the council’s nine members. Landowners vote for two of the five, with voting power pegged to acreage. Buy more land, buy more votes. Próspera’s founders choose the four remaining council members, and a six-member supermajority is needed to alter policy.

A SimCity-esque “Configurator” — a nod to Tesla’s car-design interface — lets residents select an exterior design and lay out the interior of apartments before making a purchase. There are plans to log real estate transactions on a blockchain ledger. The architecture firm Zaha Hadid Architects is working with Próspera to design its look, and digital renderings hew to the neofuturist style for which the firm is known.

Próspera’s ambitions extend far beyond its present stretch of Roatán coastline. Brimen and Delgado envision an archipelago of “Prosperity Hubs” across Roatán and the mainland, startup-city protectorates of Próspera’s metropole, with interhub transport via aerial drone taxi. (In 2020, Próspera authorized the creation of the first Prosperity Hub outside Roatán, in the Honduran fruit export hub of La Ceiba.)

The Beach Club of Pristine Bay in September, 2021. 
The resort, and nearby land was recently acquired as part of Próspera.

Embedded in the fine print and legalese of investor documents and governing statutes resides the makings of a radical experiment in laissez-faire governance. Government services will be provided entirely by a contractor, an idea borrowed from the Atlanta suburb of Sandy Springs. In 2005, the town sought to cut costs by privatizing everything from policing to street sweeping, and, for libertarians, it’s proof of concept for outsourcing bureaucracy. Oliver Porter, who created the Sandy Springs model, sits on Próspera’s board of directors and governing council.

Effective tax rates will sit in the low single digits, and, in place of Honduran courts, there’s a private arbitration center. But where the business inducements enter unprecedented terrain is health and safety regulation. Próspera won’t impose rules so much as curate prix fixe and à la carte menus of rules. Companies will be able to opt into an existing regulatory regime — choosing from dozens of countries and U.S. states — or they can Frankenstein together an entirely novel code, mixing and matching rules from different jurisdictions and even inventing new ones. The building code for one new construction at Próspera, Delgado told Rest of World by way of example, is a pastiche of Honduran and U.S. law. The lone requirements: sign-off by Próspera’s governing council and a liability insurance policy, most likely underwritten, Delgado says, by offshore insurers.

Próspera’s hands-off regulatory philosophy has caught the attention of the medical tourism industry. Delgado has held talks with a controversial gene-therapy startup, Minicircle, to open a clinic in Próspera. It will be funded by a “network of crypto investors,” according to its CEO, Machiavelli Davis. Davis runs in biohacking circles, a set best known for self-administering untested gene therapies. Próspera appeals to him in part because it purports to authorize clinical testing at a far earlier stage than American regulators allow, as long as test subjects give informed consent.

Brimen believes that Próspera’s genius stems from the link between investor returns and social aims. “We have effectively created a business model that provides a profit to investors as a result of creating generalized prosperity,” he said. Policies that boost resident incomes will enlarge tax revenue for Próspera, which will yield larger dividends for investors — incentives elegantly aligned. That’s the theory anyway.

Children from Crawfish Rock walk along the beach near their village.

Venessa Cárdenas lives near the dusty terminus of the Crawfish Rock Road. From her raised porch, she can keep an eye on the moods of the Caribbean, most often impassive, stilled by the Great Mayan Reef, just offshore.

Cárdenas said she first met Brimen in late 2017, when he and some business partners were out greeting their new neighbors. Like many villagers, she believed Próspera was just another resort, though, as time passed, she found it odd that the real estate developers kept a near-continuous presence in Crawfish Rock.

A foundation, then called the Institute for Excellence, run by Monterroso, rented a turquoise house by the village square — the site of Brimen’s later encounter with police — and began to undertake philanthropic projects in the village: small-business loans, carpentry workshops, and after-school programs. Soon, Próspera’s social media feeds and promotional materials swelled with photographs of the foundation’s good works.

In the summer of 2019, after issues with its cistern led Crawfish Rock to lose access to running water, Próspera connected the village to its own water tank. The villagers were grateful. But some villagers were surprised when water bills arrived. Stranger still, monthly payments went to the Institute for Excellence. Why, they wondered, was a charitable foundation acting like a water utility? Brimen would later explain that, in general, Próspera doesn’t “believe in charity as a primary source of support, because I think it creates dependencies.” But dependency, Cárdenas would come to suspect, was exactly what this was all about.

This wasn’t the first time Próspera had insinuated itself into life in Crawfish Rock. In Honduras, patronatos are hyperlocal councils empowered to speak on behalf of their communities. In June 2019, Próspera arranged for villagers to elect a new patronato. Monterroso handpicked a slate of candidates, who ran uncontested.

In May 2020, just after Próspera broke ground, its relationship with Crawfish Rock started to unravel. There were protests over the fact that few construction jobs went to villagers and an outcry after Próspera’s armed security guards, responding to a spate of robberies, began asking people coming and going from Crawfish Rock to identify themselves and state their business. On Próspera’s website, Cárdenas found sketches of its future footprint. Although hard to tell, it looked worryingly like the ZEDE planned to absorb Crawfish Rock, and some villagers worried that Próspera officials would ask the Honduran government to expropriate their land on the ZEDE’s behalf. At best, as Próspera grew, it would cut off Crawfish Rock from the rest of the island, pinning it against the sea.

In June 2020, Brimen, who was stuck in the U.S. due to Covid travel restrictions, sent villagers an almost hour-long voice message over WhatsApp. Próspera would never seek or accept expropriated land, he said. Brimen cataloged all that Próspera’s foundation had done for Crawfish Rock, finally turning to the water supply, for which Próspera had agreed to stop billing during the pandemic. His tone veered from disappointment to veiled threats. “Wow,” he said, in a breathy whisper of faux-astonishment, “how terrible, eh? To live in this modern age and lack running water.” He went on: “Running water to your home, such a basic yet transformative and essential service.” A pause for effect. “Who did that?”

Venessa Cárdenas, one of the village leaders, at her home in Crawfish Rock.

The following month, Brimen flew to Roatán. Several civil society groups had issued a statement criticizing Próspera’s treatment of Crawfish Rock, and he wanted the patronato to disavow it on the village’s behalf. But before that could happen, villagers opposed to the ZEDE called for a new vote, one not orchestrated by Próspera. Though only in her 30s, Cárdenas, now a leader of Crawfish Rock’s opposition to Próspera, was elected vice-president, and her friend Luisa Connor became president.

Throughout early September, Covid-19 cases surged on Roatán. After learning that Brimen planned to hold a public meeting to address community concerns, the new patronato sent him a letter, civil in tone, asking him to postpone the event. “We are open to dialog,” the letter read, “in hopes of a favorable solution, for all parties.” Brimen reacted furiously in a voice message sent to Cárdenas’ mother. He demanded the patronato retract its letter, which he characterized as an assault on free speech and the right to assemble. “They can end up in jail if they keep up this type of behavior,” he said.

Brimen held the meeting that evening in front of the turquoise house in Crawfish Rock — at least until the police shut it down. Cárdenas saw the performance at the public meeting as a PR stunt—the klieg lights, the porch-turned-pulpit. She believes Brimen wanted an incontrovertible record of him engaging with transparency and candor to undermine villagers’ claims that Próspera hadn’t been forthcoming. If so, it backfired. Brimen’s encounter with the police made the rounds on social media and even the local news, only adding to Próspera’s image problem.

In late October, Cárdenas and Connor received an unsigned letter from the Próspera Foundation, a new name for the charitable organization Monterroso oversees. The foundation had heard that the pair were looking at ways of restoring Crawfish Rock’s old water supply. The letter said that the foundation assumed that meant they no longer wanted to access water from the ZEDE’s well, and was going to cut them off in 30 days’ time.

There was only one way to keep the water flowing, the letter concluded — the patronato had to ask for it “in writing on behalf of the community.” A second letter went out at the same time, this one a notice, from Próspera to villagers across Crawfish Rock, alerting them that they would lose water service in 30 days. Próspera placed the blame squarely on the patronato. “The current leaders do not want the community to have access to Próspera-ZEDE sourced water,” the letter claimed, repeating — in a bolded and underlined passage — the ultimatum Cárdenas and Connor had received. If the patronato made a request in writing, the pipes would remain open.

Cárdenas saw it as a divide-and-conquer tactic. The patronato had never asked Próspera to shut off the water, and its members didn’t want the community to go without while they worked to get the old water system online again. But given all that had happened, they refused to sign anything Próspera could spin as proof that the ZEDE had the village’s blessing. A month later, the taps in Crawfish Rock ran dry.



Water distribution in Crawfish Rock in September, 2021. Since the local well ran dry, families have had to buy water by the barrel from a delivery service.

On a Saturday in mid-January 2021, Ron McNab, an outgoing congressman and a candidate for mayor of Roatán, held a campaign rally in Crawfish Rock. The air was damp and heavy. Languorous clouds idled over gray seas, contemplating rain. A sizable crowd had turned out in the village square nevertheless. Eventually, a calypso-tinged campaign anthem began to pulse from the speakers near the pulperia. The song had the earworm quality of an ad jingle and an impressively succinct refrain, “Vamos con Ron, Ron McNab. / Vote for Ron, Ron McNab.”

Before Brimen’s encounter with the police, local political leaders had generally supported Próspera or remained silent on the issue. Afterward, sensing, perhaps, that the winds were beginning to change, they took to denouncing the ZEDE. “I think we’ve made it very clear,” McNab told the crowd, “but I’m going to say it again: we do not support the ZEDE or Próspera.”

After Próspera had cut off Crawfish Rock, the patronato had enlisted McNab’s help to restart their old cistern. Cárdenas, who was in the audience, was grateful not to be beholden, for such a basic need, to people she didn’t trust. “We got the water, and it’s ours,” she said. “Crawfish Rock water.”

A little way up the Crawfish Rock Road, the sign at the turnoff to Próspera still read, “Providing running water since September 2019.”

Getting the water supply fixed was a rare example of the government doing what it’s supposed to. Corruption suffuses Honduras’ politics and institutions. Given their own experiences in their home countries, it’s understandable that Brimen and Delgado are skeptical of big government. What Próspera promises — “empirical-evidence driven” strategies to replicate “tested solutions,” “best practices,” and policies “proven” to maximize prosperity, according to its two founders — is seductive. But the evidence they point to to support their case doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

In 2019, the city council in Sandy Springs, the Atlanta suburb that privatized almost all of its government services in 2005, voted to bring nearly all of that contract work in-house again. Outsourcing proved to be more, not less, expensive. Nor is there any antecedent for a system of bespoke regulation that assigns offshore insurance companies the role of de facto regulator. Even some of Próspera’s boosters, like Mark Lutter, who founded and runs the nonprofit Charter Cities Institute, doubt whether it makes sense to ask a retired state judge from Arizona — three of the Próspera Arbitration Center’s seven arbiters match this description — to decide a case that turns on a hodgepodge of, say, Honduran, French, and Japanese regulations.

A central tenet of the startup city movement is the promise of letting people vote with their feet. For Brimen and his cohort — well-off, educated, peripatetic — this idea holds purchase. Don’t like one startup city? Find one that better suits your preferences. But this global mobility is a luxury of the well-to-do and the cosmopolitan, and not everybody affected by Próspera will live within the ZEDE. There are lots of people in Crawfish Rock, for example, who never opted into a future where their ancestral home is all but immured by a gated community engaged in controversial forms of social and political experimentation.

Toward the end of his stump speech, McNab, whose family has lived on Roatán for generations, paused to ruminate on the nature of place and identity. “This island is our home, and it’s the oldest place we’ve got,” he said. “It’s not as if I can pick up and go back to Olancho or Olanchito [on the mainland] if things go south on Roatán. Ain’t nowhere for me to go.” In the audience, Cárdenas nodded and repeated the word “nowhere.”

Ian MacDougall is a New York-based journalist.

Isabelle Simpson is a researcher working on "start-up societies".

Photography by Daniele Volpe for Rest of World.
THE DESTABILIZATION EXPERIMENT

The uncomfortable link between the U.S. insurrection and Tahrir Square revolution
Social media has gone from being the savior of democracy to the scourge of democracy. How did it come to this?



By MICHAEL KARANICOLAS

In 2011, the massive protests in Tahrir Square against Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak felt like a vision of the democratizing potential of social media: empowering the people by giving everyone a voice. Ten years later, that dream has been replaced by anxiety over whether democracy can survive the spread of social media. As confusing as this shift has been, the truth is that the crowds that came out to Tahrir Square and the mobs that descended on the United States Capitol on January 6 are two sides of the same coin.

From rampant hate speech to misinformation to human trafficking, it is easy to see why the global “techlash” is in full swing. Twitter, Facebook, and Google have done plenty to earn this opprobrium. The Destabilization Experiment, an ideas series produced in partnership between Rest of World and the UCLA Institute for Technology, Law & Policy, has noted a laundry list of mistakes, chief of which is the platforms’ organizing principle of growth at all costs, grabbing as much attention and market share as quickly as possible without bothering to think through the consequences.

In parts of the world where underlying religious or ethnic tensions created a tinderbox environment, Facebook crashed in with a blowtorch, providing the most virulent actors with unprecedented scale and reach to mobilize angry mobs. To make matters worse, the companies’ relationships with global autocrats has grown decidedly chummier over the past decade. Where social media used to be seen as a threat to dictatorships, social media use today is an asset to their consolidation of power. The platforms’ desire to stay on governments’ good side has even led to them carrying out some of the dirty work themselves, as a privatized censor of journalists and human rights activists.

While the social media giants certainly deserve some of the blame for how things have evolved over the past decade, the dark side of global connectivity has always lurked in the background of optimistic narratives around the internet’s transformational power.

Social media was never really a force for or against democracy. Rather, its impact is to challenge fundamental institutions of knowledge and governance by decentralizing speech away from traditional concentrations of power and into the hands of the public.

In the context of a repressive government like Egypt or Iran, this can be a marvelous thing. Giving everyone the ability to broadcast their views to a mass audience can help to break the information stranglehold of autocratic power structures. Leveling the communications playing field allowed thousands of dissenting views to pour out, brushing aside the calcified institutional monoliths that aimed to keep the public discourse under control.

But the collective mistake of the techno-optimists of 2011, myself included, was failing to realize that this corrosive impact would not be limited to the world’s autocracies. It turns out that the United States and other developed democracies are equally reliant on centralized institutions of knowledge and authority to guide our public discourse. These include, most obviously, specialized government agencies as well as universities, traditional media, and other hubs of expertise and authority. The democratic nature of these structures means they are more resilient than, say, Belarusian state television, but they are not immune from the destabilizing impact of social media on the information ecosystem.

In a pandemic, for example, Americans rely on specialized health agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as an authoritative voice to supply health information and to separate rumor from reality. Likewise, during an election, local administrators, law enforcement, and the media play an important role in informing the public of who won and lost and assuring them that the result was free, fair, and impartial.

Modern society is far, far too complicated for us to actually “do our own research” on these kinds of questions. We must rely on centers of expertise

Modern society is far, far too complicated for us to actually “do our own research” on these kinds of questions. We must rely on centers of expertise that, traditionally, will speak with the biggest and most authoritative voice on issues that are too complex or far removed for members of the public to investigate themselves. We trust these experts because they typically have their own methods of validating information for all of us: whether through peer review or a robust editorial process. Today’s crisis of democracy is what happens when that hierarchical information structure breaks down, and your crazy uncle has the same platform to promote quack medical theories as an actual expert.

So where do we go from here?

The first step is to realize that common problems require common solutions. Like our environment, the world shares a common online space. Toxicity and misinformation do not respect national borders any more than an oil spill. As a result, governments should not only refrain from actions that “pollute” the information environments of other countries but should also be keenly aware of the impacts that solutions they take forward to “clean up” the online discourse may have elsewhere, either by directly harming internet users outside of their borders or, as is commonly the case, by establishing a precedent for regulatory structures that will be implemented abusively in other parts of the world.

Words and tone matter, particularly when they emanate from the world’s leading democracies. When democratic governments portray social media as the cause of every problem, it gives license to more-repressive leaders to target them and, ultimately, their users, with disastrous consequences for freedom of expression. This is not to suggest that there should be no accountability for the very real harms and mistakes that major social media platforms are responsible for. But political leaders should think carefully about the transnational implications of what they say and do. This is more challenging than it sounds because the typical model for governments is to view problems through the lens of how their constituents are affected. But, as with climate change, the first step here is realizing that this is a global problem.

The reverse of this is also true, insofar as proposals that strengthen civic discourse — such as through healthy public service media or supporting local journalism — have the potential to carry benefits across borders. This does not mean trying to turn the clock back to the 1990s or to undo the many civic benefits that flow from widespread internet access. But with the erosion of traditional power and information structures, it is inevitable that new centers of influence will rise up. The challenges that political systems around the world are facing suggests a need to think carefully about how to improve the information space structurally, such as through solutions that combat the surveillance economy that currently drives online discourse, as well as efforts to promote information literacy, transparency, and quality journalism.

Social media platforms themselves, as the root of these changes, have an incredibly important role to play in curtailing the worst elements of their impact on the global discourse. Recent revelations that Facebook’s content moderation is overwhelmingly focused on the United States are not surprising to anyone who follows this space closely, though the scale of the differential is shocking, considering the outsized impact the platform has in places where democratic institutions are less resilient.

More than just pivoting their focus to pay more attention to these global impacts, platforms need to think carefully about their mission and place in the world. Their role is simply too important for their planning to be dominated by quarterly earnings reports and growth figures. As traditional institutions of knowledge and governance see their role in global dialogue diminished, the platforms are rising up in their place as key pillars of public discourse. Even if a full public-interest model for social media, as some have suggested, may be a bridge too far, platforms need to change their view of the world to one that accounts for the incredibly important role they play in global democracy.

While Facebook, understandably, has moved away from the earlier mantra of “Move fast and break things,” the unfortunate fact is that many things around the world are now broken as a result of social media platforms’ disruptive impact on global discourse. Fixing things is not going to be a rapid or exciting process, much less a lucrative one. But it is necessary and something that is essential for platforms to play a positive role in.


Michael Karanicolas is the inaugural executive director of the UCLA Institute for Technology, Law & Policy.