WHEW THAT WAS CLOSE
Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant regains power after temporarily cut off from grid

Ukraine's Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was completely disconnected from the Ukrainian grid for the first time ever.

(Alexander Ermochenko)

The last regular line supplying electricity to Ukraine's Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is working after being cut on Thursday, the United Nations says.

Key points:The UN nuclear watchdog confirmed the Zaporizhzhia power plant had twice lost connection to Ukraine's power grid

Energoatom says lines linking the plant to the grid had been disrupted after fires had broken out in the ash pits of a coal power station near the nuclear reactor complex

Fighting in the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station has been a source of concern for weeks

Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom said fires broke out in the ash pits of a coal power station near the Zaporizhzhia reactor complex, Europe's largest nuclear facility, disrupting lines linking the plant to Ukraine's power grid.

"As a result, the station's two working power units were disconnected from the network," Energoatom said in a statement.

"Thus, the actions of the invaders caused a complete disconnection of the [nuclear power plant] from the power grid — the first in the history of the plant," it said.

The last electricity supply to the plant was restored later on Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a statement,

"Ukraine told the IAEA that the [plant] … at least twice lost connection to the power line during the day but that it was currently up again," it said.

Russia captured the Zaporizhzhia plant in March and has controlled it since, although Ukrainian technicians from Energoatom still operate it.

Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of shelling the site, fuelling international fears of a disastrous nuclear accident.

Nuclear experts have warned of the risk of damage to the plant's spent nuclear fuel pools or its reactors. Cuts in the power needed to cool the pools to avoid a disastrous meltdown are another worry.

Energoatom said the plant's security systems were working normally and work was underway to reconnect one of the reactor blocks to the grid. The power plant has six reactors in total.

The vast complex supplied more than 20 per cent of Ukraine's electricity needs and its loss would pile new strain on the government.

Russia's Novosti news agency reported safety systems at Zaporizhzhia were activated on Thursday after power cuts were reported across swathes of Russian-controlled territory.

Satellite image shows the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and fires nearby.

(Reuters: Copernicus Sentinel-2 Imagery)

IAEA close to securing Zaporizhzhia visit

The fighting in the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station has been a source of concern for weeks.

Kyiv told the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog, that shelling earlier this week had damaged transformers at a nearby conventional power plant, disrupting electricity supplies to the Zaporizhzhia plant for several hours.

War rages near huge nuclear site in Ukraine
Experts urge intervention as fighting rages near Zaporizhzhia.

Coupled with recent reports of shelling near the nuclear power plant has prompted calls for an urgent mission of the IAEA to the site.

Officials from the group are "very, very close" to being able to visit Zaporozhzhia, IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said on Thursday.

French President Emmanuel Macron pressed Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call last week to allow the UN agency to visit the site.

"Kyiv accepts it. Moscow accepts it. So we need to go there," Mr Grossi said.

Following the most recent scare at the power plant, Mr Grossi tweeted he was "determined to personally lead" a mission to the plant in the next few days to help "stabilise the nuclear safety and security situation".

"Almost every day there is a new incident at or near the [Zaporizhzhia] NPP. We can’t afford to lose any more time," he said.

Ukraine's energy minister said IAEA officials could travel to the Zaporizhzhia plant in the coming days.

"A visit is planned," German Galushchenko told Reuters in Kyiv.

"Definitely no later than the beginning of September."

Reuters/AP

Nuclear plant to be inspected after Russia grants permission.

CHERNOBYL 2
Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant disconnected from power grid: Report

World News
Published on Aug 25, 2022 

In a statement cited by CNN, Energoatom said that the complex was disconnected Thursday due to fires at a nearby ash pit, causing the last remaining power line connecting to Ukraine's energy grid to disconnect twice.

A serviceman with a Russian flag on his uniform stands guard near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant outside the Russian-controlled city of Enerhodar.

(Reuters file photo)

ANI |

Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was completely disconnected from the power grid for the first time in its history on Thursday, according to the country's nuclear operator.

The nuclear power plant is held by Russian forces.

In a statement cited by CNN, Energoatom said that the complex was disconnected Thursday due to fires at a nearby ash pit, causing the last remaining power line connecting to Ukraine's energy grid to disconnect twice.

"The actions of the invaders caused a complete disconnection of the ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant) from the power grid -- the first in the history of the plant," it stated.

Later on Thursday, the Russian-installed regional governor said that "at the moment, the power supply to all cities and districts of the Zaporizhzhia region has been restored" from the plant after earlier disruptions.

Yevhen Balytskyi, an official, blamed Ukrainian military action for the earlier outages.

"As a result of a strike by the armed formations of Ukraine on power lines in the area of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, the territory of the security zone of the 750 kV overhead line caught fire. The fire was provoked by a short circuit on power lines," he said, as per CNN.

While in a separate statement, Ukraine's State Inspection of Nuclear Regulation, which cited the nuclear operator Energoatom, said a power line from the plant was disconnected due to hostilities in the area. (ANI)

Myanmar’s arrest of ex-British ambassador shows generals don’t care what the world thinks

A Southeast Asia expert fears no amount of international outrage over expression and human rights abuses will prompt its powerful supporter China to rein in its generals

Vicky Bowman, director of Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business, speaking

 in Yangon, Myanmar in 2017 (Photo: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

By Michael Day

Chief Foreign Commentator

August 25, 2022 

Britain’s’ ex-ambassador to Myanmar has been detained in the Southeast Asian country, just as the UK announces new sanctions against what is widely regarded as one of the world’s most brutal regimes.

Vicky Bowman, who currently runs the Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business (MCRB), and her husband, Htein Lin, a Burmese artist and former political prisoner, were detained on Wednesday on alleged immigration offences, reports suggest.

In addition to imposing fresh sanctions against military-linked businesses in Myanmar, Britain is joining the case against Myanmar in the International Court of Justice.

The fact that Mr Bowman’s detention occurred as the UK marked the fifth anniversary of the junta’s campaign of ethnic cleansing against Rohingya Muslims, by announcing its support for genocide case, Gambia v. Myanmar, would appear to be more than coincidence.

Britain is the fourth country after the Maldives, Netherlands and Canada, to offer formal support for the action brought against Myanmar to determine whether its military conducted genocidal operations in 2016 and 2017.

On Thursday thousands of Rohingya refugees marked the fifth anniversary of their exodus from Myanmar to Bangladesh.

Myanmar has been in chaos since the military overthrew an elected government in early 2021.

A report by Amnesty International on Tuesday 2 August said authorities in Myanmar’s prisons and interrogation centres routinely subject people detained for resisting the coup to torture and other cruel or degrading treatment.

“Myanmar has stooped to unimaginable new lows in its vile and brutal treatment of detainees,” according to Amnesty International’s Secretary General, Agnès Callamard.

She said, however, oppression and torture was having the opposite effect to that intended by the junta.

“The Myanmar people remain unbowed even after the litany of violations, including most recently the shameful and despicable executions of Kyaw Min Yu – also known as Ko Jimmy – Phyo Zeya Thaw, Hla Myo Aung and Aung Thura Zaw.

She called on the United Nations Security Council to up pressure on the Myanmar military with a referral to the International Criminal Court, a global arms embargo and targeted sanctions.

But Chatham House Southeast Asia expert Bill Hayton said the arrest of Ms Bowman “shows that the junta doesn’t care what we think of its actions. It’s stuck in its bunker listening to itself while Myanmar heads in the direction of North Korea.”

And he fears no amount of international outrage over expression and human rights abuses will prompt its powerful supporter China to rein in its generals. “As long as the Myanmar junta facilitates China’s access to the important Bay of Bengal, Beijing will tolerate whatever the regime does,” he said.

Despite its brutality, the military junta has been unable to quell insurgencies by different groups across the country.

Mr Hayton noted that insurgencies and instability had plagued Myanmar, formerly Burma, since its independence in 1948 because the ethnically diverse country “has not be able to decide what sort of country it should be”.

According to the International Crisis Group, ethnicity and conflict are inextricably linked in Myanmar, creating a vicious cycle of violence that continues to escalate”. Buddhist extremists led some of the worst violence against the Rohingya in 2016-17. The campaign group says that Myanmar’s inability to address ethnic minority grievances or provide adequate security to communities has created “an arms race among minority groups”.

UK
Croydon: Tram drivers to strike for third time in four months

The strike follows industrial action in June and July

Tram drivers in south London have announced they will strike for the third time this year over pay.

Members of the Aslef union on London Tramlink, based in Croydon, will walk out on 12 September.

Aslef said that due to inflation an offered 3% pay rise was actually a pay cut and they had any contact from management since July's strike.

Tram Operations Ltd (TOL), run by FirstGroup, said the unions should call off the strike.

Aslef says their drivers have had their wages frozen for two years and the offered pay rise is not fair during the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

Finn Brennan, Aslef's full-time organiser on Tramlink, said: "There has been no contact from Tramlink management and no new offer since our last strike in the middle of July.

"It seems FirstGroup, which operates the tram system on behalf of TfL, doesn't care about either the welfare of their staff or the impact on their passengers of more disruption."

'Perks of bosses'

He continued: "Their offer means a huge wage cut for staff who face being unable to heat their homes and pay their bills this winter.

"We are having to strike again because management are not prepared to make anything like a fair offer that reflects the real cost of living in this country."

Mr Brennan accused FirstGroup of neglecting the needs of staff: "FirstGroup are prioritising the pay and perks of their bosses above a fair deal for staff.

A TOL spokesperson said: "It's hard to understand how Aslef can justify going out on strike, having benefited from a change in terms equivalent to a 5% plus rise only in November.

"This action will disrupt Croydon residents and businesses needlessly, when the local economy is still recovering from the pandemic. We want to find a solution with Aslef - they should call off these damaging strikes and reconsider our offer."

Here’s how to get the hard-core homeless into homes

AuthorKevin DrumPublished onAugust 24, 2022 – 9:43 pm2 Commentson Here’s how to get the hard-core homeless into homes

In the New York Times today, Maia Szalavitz writes about how Seattle finally tackled chronic homelessness. A few years ago Lisa Daugaard, a lawyer, developed a program called LEAD:

Instead of re-incarcerating homeless people who typically already have long histories of minor arrests, police departments that participate in LEAD refer them to case management services. The program has an overall philosophy of harm reduction, which, in addition to securing shelter, focuses on improving health, rather than mandating abstinence from drugs and other risky behaviors. LEAD originated as a collaboration of public defenders, the police and prosecutors, who put aside differences to work on solutions.

LEAD worked, but during the pandemic shelters were closed and police stopped arresting people for minor crimes. So Daugaard decided to try something new:

With federal pandemic funds becoming available and desperate hotel owners newly open to being paid to house nontraditional guests, she said she saw “our chance to show that there is another way.”

Ms. Daugaard and her colleagues created a program now known as JustCare. JustCare staff members, rather than police officers, would respond to urgent calls about encampments. After building trust with ‌‌local homeless people, the workers would move them into housing without strict abstinence requirements and then help clean up the site. The police would be contacted only as a last resort.

The common element of both programs is an emphasis on getting people into shelter, not obsessing over behavioral rules or addictions to drugs or alcohol. Addicts would rather have drugs than housing, so insisting that they get clean in return for housing accomplishes nothing except to keep them on the streets.

There's a lesson here for homeless initiatives everywhere. Obviously, one thing you need is actual shelter, and public resistance makes that hard to build. But if you overcome that obstacle, you also need to get people off the street and into your shiny new shelters. The way to do that is to build trust and to let people live the way they want. That doesn't sound attractive to a lot of people, but it works.

Investors are bearish on China, but have more to fear in the US

China’s zero-Covid policy and property crackdown have undermined attempts to boost growth and dashed investor confidence – but at least expectations are in line with reality

In the US, markets are still in denial about the Fed’s determination to bring down inflation with aggressive policy tightening


Nicholas Spiro
25 Aug, 2022

People walk in front of a screen showing the latest stock exchange data in Shanghai on August 22. Photo: EPA-EFE

Among the world’s leading economies, which one unsettles financial markets the most? The answer is by no means clear, partly because the global economy as a whole is in such a precarious state, but also because investors struggle to price risks accurately.

A cursory glance at the performance of stock markets since the start of the third quarter suggests China is a bigger source of concern. The CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed shares is down 9 per cent, snuffing out a tentative recovery in May and June.

The benchmark S&P 500 index, by contrast, is up 9 per cent, outpacing the rise in the FTSE All-World Index, a leading gauge of stocks in developed and developing economies. Indeed, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index has gained 12.7 per cent since June 16, showing the extent to which US equity markets continue to outperform their global peers.

At the beginning of this year, many Wall Street firms had high hopes for China. The optimism stemmed partly from the attractive valuations of the country’s beaten-up stocks. It was also fuelled by expectations that the sharp slowdown in the economy would force Beijing to pivot towards looser monetary and fiscal policy.

These hopes were dashed spectacularly. While expectations were too high to begin with, and markets the world over suffered heavy losses in the first half of this year, investors have been let down by ineffective measures to stabilise markets and shore up growth.

Beijing’s pursuit of three incompatible goals – a zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 that involves the imposition of draconian lockdowns, reducing moral hazard in the all-important property sector, and introducing measures to stimulate growth – has led to policy incoherence on a grand scale.

Successive pledges of support have been met with increasing scepticism. Tellingly, only four out of 25 policy initiatives in the past five months coincided with a gain in Chinese equities of at least 2 per cent, data from Bloomberg shows.

Disappointment at Beijing’s failure to do more to restore confidence, and to redress the balance between fighting the virus and inflicting harm on the economy, has caused a mood of despondency to set in.

In the United States, by contrast, the Federal Reserve risks doing too much. Having allowed inflation to get out of hand, it is now hiking interest rates at the fastest pace since 1994, exacerbating a downturn that could lead to a full-blown recession.

An empty store advertises retail space in New York City

 – where unemployment is double the national average – on July 11. 

Photo: Bloomberg

While the underlying problem in China’s markets is a loss of confidence, US asset prices are threatened by a dangerous mismatch between investors’ expectations and the Fed’s new-found determination to stamp out inflation. Bond markets are pricing in rate cuts next year even though the Fed has said it will continue to tighten policy in the face of higher unemployment and weaker growth.

The US central bank has sowed doubt about its inflation-fighting resolve by refusing to acknowledge that a recession is the price that almost certainly needs to be paid to bring prices back into normal bounds.

Fed chair Jerome Powell has a chance to convince markets of the central bank’s commitment when he delivers a speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming on Friday. Yet, the real showdown between markets and the Fed will begin when America’s labour market – which is still extremely hot – starts to cool sharply. Only then will it become clear if the Fed is serious about crushing inflation come what may.

The US Federal Reserve building in Washington, on August 23.

 Photo: Bloomberg

In China, the bad news has been baked into asset prices for some time. The key question is whether there will be a meaningful positive catalyst to turn sentiment around. In the US, on the other hand, investors have yet to come to terms with a resolutely hawkish Fed, either because they are overly optimistic about inflation or because they believe the Fed will get cold feet when growth collapses.

The risk of a negative policy-induced surprise is much greater in the US, for the simple reason that markets and the Fed are far apart. While investors are accustomed to China’s opaque governance, and have had to contend with Beijing’s conflicting priorities for much of this year, US monetary policy is confusing and misleading.

While this is partly due to the extraordinary level of uncertainty in the global economy, the Fed’s move to scrap its forward guidance – its decisions will now be made meeting to meeting – adds insult to injury. In a note published on Tuesday, UBS said the change “removed a stabilising force at a time of increasing instability”.

Challenges for Hong Kong as China, US widen the gap on interest rates
25 Aug 2022


This is bad news for China’s markets. The yuan is already at its weakest level against the US dollar in two years. If bond investors sense they jumped the gun in pricing in Fed rate cuts next year, the greenback will strengthen further, putting the yuan under more strain and spurring capital outflows.

Still, from a sentiment standpoint, China poses less of a risk. Market expectations need to adjust much more sharply in America. Chinese assets could even provide some upside if Covid-19 cases fall sharply. That is a big if, but then things cannot get much worse in China.




Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.

SCMP

ETHIOPIA'S WAR OF AGRESSION

US urges permanent end to conflict in Ethiopia amid renewed violence

Ethiopian government and Tigray rebels confirmed a humanitarian truce had been broken following military escalation

Vakkas Dogantekin |25.08.2022


ANKARA

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged the opposing sides involved in the conflict in Ethiopia late Wednesday to work towards a permanent cease-fire amid renewed clashes in the East African country.

"Five months ago, a truce was declared in northern Ethiopia, which reduced violence and saved lives. We are concerned that renewed fighting puts that at risk. We call on the Ethiopian Government and TPLF to redouble efforts for peace to bring a permanent end to the conflict," Blinken said on Twitter, referring to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the party that controls Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region.

Earlier in the day, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "deeply shocked and saddened" over the resumption of hostilities in Ethiopia.

His remarks came hours after both the Ethiopian government and Tigray rebels confirmed that a humanitarian truce had been broken following a military escalation.

The Ethiopian army and the forces of the TPLF traded blame as to which side violated the cease-fire that was reached in March in areas along the administrative border between Amhara and Tigray states.

The government has expressed readiness to engage in talks with the rebels in the past several months without any preconditions as long as they are held under the sole mediation of the African Union.

But the Tigray rebels rejected the African Union as a mediator, recommending that talks be held with Kenya’s outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta in that role.

Thousands of people, most of them civilians, have been killed and millions displaced since the conflict began in November 2020.

The UN has warned that Tigray “stands on the edge of a humanitarian disaster,” with more than 40% of the region’s estimated 6 million people in need of emergency assistance.

It also said that more than 5 million people were internally displaced in Afar and Amhara regional states where Tigrayan forces made military incursions a year ago, inflicting huge humanitarian and property damage.

*Addis Getachew in Ethiopia contributed to this story

 ACLU, 10 Media Organizations Sue Arizona Over Law on Filming Police

The Arizona law against filming police officers within eight feet is being challenged in court. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and almost a dozen media organizations are suing Arizona officials, saying the law is unconstitutional. Retired Police Sergeant Jim Fuda gives his take.

WAIT, WHAT?!

Pittsburgh Jewish Chronicle hit with antisemitism after Gab founder targets paper

Jewish newspaper becomes subject of hate remarks after Andrew Torba slams one of its articles critical of the hate speech on far-right platform

By DAVID RULLO


A screenshot shows a reply left on Gab founder Andrew Torba's page after he posted a link to a Pittsburgh Jewish Chronicle story. (Screenshot by David Rullo via JTA)


Pittsburgh Jewish Chronicle via JTA — Andrew Torba, the founder of Gab, a social media platform widely known as an online home for extremist, antisemitic comments and conspiracy theories, reposted an article by the Pittsburgh Jewish Chronicle about a Jewish Pennsylvania state representative who was hit with antisemitic threats on the platform.

In response, several of Torba’s followers aimed antisemitism towards the Chronicle.

After Pennsylvania state Rep. Dan Miller retweeted the Chronicle’s article from Friday, “State Rep. Dan Frankel targeted by antisemitic posts on Gab,” Torba reposted the article on Gab.

“People are done caring about your eternal victimhood complex,” Torba wrote. “Free speech means the right to offend..Stop conflating offensive memes with ‘threats’…Gab is what free speech looks like, the good, the bad, and the ugly are all included.”

Within 21 hours of publication, Torba’s post had more than 560 comments and 821 reposts. Many of the replies voiced agreement with Torba, and a large number included antisemitic comments, tropes and memes.

Two replies read, “Exile the jews from the USA and they’ll take that hatred for God with them,” and “it’s anudda SHOAH.”

Torba is a supporter of Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate and Pennsylvania State Sen. Doug Mastriano. After paying the social media platform $5,000 in consulting fees, all new Gab users automatically followed Mastriano before he closed his account in the wake of widespread criticism from both Republicans and Democrats.

Frankel, who has been in office since 1998, had criticized Mastriano for his ties to Gab.


State Rep. Dan Frankel speaks before a joint session of Pennsylvania lawmakers who came together to commemorate the victims of the Pittsburgh synagogue attack that killed 11 people, Wednesday, April 10, 2019, at the state Capitol in Harrisburg, Pa. (AP/Matt Rourke)

Torba has embraced Christian nationalist and antisemitic ideologies. In July, he said on Gab TV: “This is a Christian nation. Christians outnumber you, by a lot. A lot. And we’re not gonna listen to 2%. You represent 2% of the country, ok? We’re not bending the knee to the 2% anymore.”

According to the Anti-Defamation League, Torba once reposted a comment from a Gab user which reads, in part: “So, should we subject our children to Jewish propaganda on television, music, or movies? Uh, no. Should we act like the nation of Israel is not in rebellion against God? Uh, no. Should we ignore that Talmudic zionists want to crush the Gentiles? Uh, no.”

As of Wednesday, Torba’s repost of the Chronicle’s story and the subsequent replies to that post were unavailable and no longer visible on his page.

The man accused of killing 11 Jews in the Tree of Life building posted antisemitic messages on Gab before the October 27, 2018, massacre. In his Gab bio, he described Jews as the “children of satan.”

A version of this piece originally ran in Pittsburgh Jewish Chronicle and is reprinted with permission.

A River of Shit Runs Through It

BY GEORGE OCHENSKI

 AUGUST 24, 2022
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Gallatin River, near Big Sky. Photo: Jeffrey St. Clair.

The latest national “news” that extremely wealthy people are buying up Montana and the West was about as revealing to Montanans as telling us the sky is blue. We know, we live here, and we see it every day. While many laud the benefits of such economic activity, the very real consequences are stacking up – and nowhere is it more obvious than in the destruction of the world-famous Gallatin River that just turned neon green downstream from Big Sky for the fifth year in a row.

It was way back in 1970 that Chet Huntley, a Montana native and famous anchor for the national Huntley-Brinkley Report, went all in on the development of a high-end resort on Lone Mountain, located in the headwaters of the West Fork of the Gallatin River. Huntley was the trusted “voice of America,” but had retired from the stress of the nightly newscast saying he wanted to “get these damn deadlines off my neck.”

Old Chet told us Montanans who were present at the pre-construction public meetings that Big Sky was going to be a “place for regular Montanans to go skiing.” But Chet was lying through his teeth. That was evident to anyone looking at who was putting up the money for the venture. That would be the Chrysler Realty Corp., General Electric Pension Fund, Burlington Northern, and the Montana Power Co. to name a few. And not only did they get everything they wanted, Chet even “cajoled two Montana governors, obtaining permission for the resort to make use of the state’s nickname, Big Sky.”

At that time, there was virtually no development except for a couple of dude ranches between Four Corners and West Yellowstone. From its headwaters in Yellowstone National Park the Gallatin ran so clean and pure you could drink a handful of cold and delicious water right out of the stream while flyfishing without a worry that it might be polluted.

Many Montanans voiced very real concerns at the beginning of the Big Sky venture about just how many roads, homes, hotels, golf courses, shops, and ski areas you could cram into a narrow, rock-lined canyon without doing serious damage to the area’s lands, waters, and wildlife. In those days, as Montanans with good memories will recall, wildlife in the canyon was abundant, with herds of big horn sheep and moose often wandering down to the river.

Turns out Montanans were fully justified in their concerns for the river and lands they loved. We were, of course, told that our regulatory agencies wouldn’t allow damaging development…and like Chet Huntley, they, too, lied through their teeth. There was no zoning, there were no regulations on how many septic systems could be installed and the regulations that did exist were routinely weakened by developers seeking the enormous profits such a high-end development on Lone Mountain — situated in pristine wilderness — would generate.

Fifty years later we get today’s tragic situation of a neon green Gallatin River directly downstream from the Big Sky, Yellowstone Club, Moonlight Basin and Spanish Peaks developments. Thirty years ago the famous flyfishing footage used in “A River Runs Through It” was filmed on the Gallatin — but nowadays it’s more like “a river of sewage runs through it.”

It’s ironic that while Huntley was pushing Big Sky Montanans were adopting a new Constitution stating: “The state and each person shall maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations” — a mandate Montana has sadly failed to meet in the past and continues to shirk in the present as the Gallatin turns neon green.

George Ochenski is a columnist for the Missoulian, where this essay originally appeared.

Is There Enough Metal to Replace Oil?

The short answer: No, not even close!

BY ROBERT HUNZIKER

 AUGUST 23, 2022
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Image by Dan Cristian Pădureț.

The short answer: No, not even close!

Nations of the world are only too aware that fossil fuels need to be phased out for two reasons. First, oil is a finite commodity. It’ll run out in time. Secondly, fossil fuel emissions such as CO2 are destroying the planet’s climate system.

However, a recent study puts a damper on the prospects of phasing out fossil fuels in favor of renewables. More to the point, a phase out of fossil fuels by mid century looks to be a nearly impossible Sisyphean task. It’s all about quantities of minerals/metals contained in Mother Earth. There aren’t enough.

Simon Michaux, PhD, Geological Survey Finland has done a detailed study of what’s required to phase out fossil fuels in favor of renewables, to wit:

“The quantity of metal required to make just one generation of renewable tech units to replace fossil fuels is much larger than first thought. Current mining production of these metals is not even close to meeting demand. Current reported mineral reserves are also not enough in size. Most concerning is copper as one of the flagged shortfalls. Exploration for more at required volumes will be difficult, with this seminar addressing these issues.” (Source: Simon P. Michaux, Associate Research Professor of Geometallurgy Unit Minerals Processing and Materials Research, Geological Survey of Finland, August 18, 2022 – Seminar: What Would It Take To Replace The Existing Fossil Fuel System?)

Metals/minerals required to source gigafactories producing renewables to power the world’s economies when fossil fuels phase out looks to be one of the biggest quandaries of all time. There’s not enough metal.

Michaux researched and analyzed the current status of the internal combustion engine fleet of cars, trucks, rail, maritime shipping, and aviation for the US, Europe, and China, accessing databases to gather information as a starting point for the study.

Michaux’s calculations for what’s required to phase out fossil fuels uses a starting point of 2018 with 84.5% of primary energy still fossil fuel-based and less than 1% of the world’s vehicle fleet electric. Therefore, the first generation of renewable energy is only now coming on stream, meaning there will be no recycling availability of production materials for some time. Production will have to be sourced from mining.

When Michaux presented basic information to EU analysts, it was a shock to them. To his dismay, they had not put together the various mineral/metal data requirements to phase out fossil fuels and replaced by renewables. They assumed, using guesstimates, the metals would be available.

A key issue for the accomplishment of renewables is power storage because of the impact of wind and solar intermittency, both of which are highly intermittent. Most studies assume gas will be the buffer for intermittency. Other than using fossil fuel such as gas as a buffer, an adequate power storage system to handle intermittency will require 30 times more material than what electric vehicles require with current plans, meaning the scope is much larger than the current paradigm allows.

One factor that will influence what materials and systems are used to build out renewables is the fact that EVs require a battery that is 3.2 times the mass of the equivalent of a hydrogen fuel tank. Therefore, an analysis of EVs versus hydrogen fuel cells indicates it’ll be necessary to build out the global fleet with EVs for city traffic and hydrogen fuel cells for all long-range vehicles like semi-trailers, rails, and maritime shipping.

The entire renewable build-out requires 36,000 terawatt hours to operate, meaning 586,000 new non-fossil fuel power stations of average size. The current fleet of power stations is only 46,000, meaning it’ll take 10 times the current number of power stations, yet to be built.

The new annual energy capacity of 36,007.9 terrawatt hours will supply (1) 29 million EV Buses (2) 601.3 million Commercial EV Vans (3) 695.2 million EV Passenger Cars (4) 28.9 million H2-Cell Trucks (5) 62 million EV Motorcycles (6). Hydro will also need to be expanded by 115% by 2050 and nuclear will need to double. Biomass will stay the same. It’s already at limitations. Geothermal triples.

Additionally, buffer systems are crucial to handle intermittency. For example, Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia, which is an Elon Musk project with a 100-megawatt capacity. The EU is using Hornsdale as the standard buffer system. Globally, 15,635,478 Hornsdale-type stations will need to be built across the planet and connected to the power grid system just to meet a 4-week buffer system. This is 30 times the capacity compared to the entire global vehicle fleet. Therefore the market for batteries is substantially larger than currently understood and accounted for in planning for a renewable economy.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on how much metal is required per unit to build out a renewable economy. As well as a study of what 2040 market share would look like for batteries for light duty vehicles and heavy duty vehicles and power storage at the level of the global fleet for solar panels in 2040 and hydrogen fuel cells, trucks, freight locomotives, maritime shipping, wind turbines and power storage buffer.

The total metals required for one generation of technology to phase out fossil fuels is listed by Required Production followed by Known Reserves for all metals based upon tonnes, as follows:

Copper 4,575,523,674 vs. 880,000,000 – a serious shortfall -reserves only cover 20% of requirements.

Zinc 35,704,918 vs. 250,000,000 – adequate reserves.

Manganese 227,889,504 vs 1,500,000,000 – adequate reserves

Nickel 940,578,114 vs. 95,000,000 – huge shortfall – reserves 10% of requirements.

Lithium 944,150,293 vs. 95,000,000 = huge shortfall – reserves 10% of requirements.

Cobalt 218,396,990 vs. 7,600,000 – huge shortfall – reserves 3.48% of requirements.

Graphite 8,973,640,257 vs. 320,000,000 = huge shortfall – 3.57% reserves of requirements.

Silicon (metallurgical) 49,571,460 – adequate reserves

Silver 145,579 vs. 530,000 – adequate reserves

Vanadium 681,865,986 vs. 24,000,000= huge shortfall -3.52% reserves of requirement

Zirconium 2,614,126 vs.70, 000,000 – adequate reserves.

Prior to 2020- the global system mined 700 million tons of copper throughout all history. Looking forward, the same 700 million tons will need to be mined over the next 22 years, which is based upon current economic growth rates without giving consideration to what’s needed for one generation of renewables.

Current reserves of copper are 880 million tons. But 4.5 billion tons of copper are required just to manufacture one generation of renewable technology. Hmm.

Moreover, each renewable technology has a life cycle of 8 to 25 years. Thereafter, they need to be decommissioned and replaced. Also, whether renewables are strong enough, and sustainably enough to power the next industrial era is a question that hangs in the air.

THE PAST – “An industrial ecosystem of unprecedented size and complexity, that took more than a century to build with the support of the highest calorifically dense source of cheap energy the world has ever known (oil) in abundant quantities, with easily available credit, and unlimited mineral resources.” (Michaux)

THE PRESENT – “We now seek to build an even more complex system with very expensive energy, a fragile finance system saturated in debt, not enough minerals, with an unprecedented number of the human population, embedded in a deteriorating environment.” (Michaux)

Current mineral reserves are not adequate to resource metal production to manufacture the generation of renewable energy technology, as current mining is not even close to meeting the expected demand for one generation of renewable technology.

Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.