UK
Scroby Sands: Investigation into wind turbine fire 'may take weeks'

OLIV3R DRONE PHOTOGRAPHY
The turbine is part of the Scroby Sands offshore wind farm

By Andy Trigg
BBC News, Norfolk

It could take weeks to determine the cause of a fire on an offshore wind turbine, its owner has said.

The blaze at the Scroby Sands wind farm 1.5 miles (2.5km) off the coast of Great Yarmouth, Norfolk started on Tuesday morning and self extinguished hours later.

RWE, the German company that owns the site, said a team had already started removing fire debris at low tide.

The majority of turbines at the wind farm are back in operation.

Chris Smith, the first manager at Scroby Sands wind farm when it was commissioned in 2004, said; "These types of fires are extremely rare.

"I can only think of two similar fires across the UK in the past.

"When something like this happens, you can only watch as the fire burns out."

HEMSBY BEACH CAFE
The fire could be seen by people on the beach at Hemsby

RWE confirmed on Tuesday that no-one was working on the turbine at the time and that all personnel at the site had been accounted for following an evacuation.

It said the majority of damage was caused to the nacelle - the enclosure at the top of the tower which housed the generating components - and that it may take weeks to determine the cause of the blaze.

Investigators could not assess the damage until it was safe to do so, the company added.

"An electrical fault is the most likely cause," Mr Smith added. "There's a lot of electrical components in those things and electrical items are the most likely things to generate heat."

,

OLIV3R DRONE PHOTOGRAPHYImage caption,
The majority of the damage was caused to the nacelle - the enclosure at the top of the tower which houses the generating components

RWE said the wind farm was now operational but that six turbines - connected to the damaged one via an electrical cable - would remain out of action until next week.

Ana Musat, executive director of policy and engagement at RenewableUK, said: "There's a lot of work that goes in on a regular basis to stress test the equipment and ensure that we install really good quality components.

"So, of course, everyone is working really hard to ensure that we have as few incidents like this as possible and that we can learn any lessons from this particular one."

The Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) also said it was liaising with RWE, the local authority and environmental stakeholders, to ensure an appropriate clean-up operation was carried out.

It added that a local navigation warning had also been issued to keep vessels away from the affected area.

RWE said its 30 turbines at Scroby Sands had an installed capacity of 60 megawatts and was able to power more than 48,000 households.

Scroby Sands wind turbine fire off Norfolk coast self extinguishes

Published
1 day ago


The turbine is part of the Scroby Sands offshore wind farm
By Andy Trigg
BBC News, Norfolk

A fire on an offshore wind turbine has self extinguished, its owner has said.

A plume of black smoke was seen billowing from the Scroby Sands wind farm, 1.5 miles (2.5km) off the coast of Great Yarmouth, Norfolk.

HM Coastguard said the alarm was raised at 10:50 BST on Tuesday and that all personnel had been accounted for following an evacuation.

RWE, the German company that owns the wind farm, said no-one was on board the turbine when the fire broke out.

The company hoped to have the wind farm back operational on Wednesday.

EMILY METCALFE

The fire was first reported to HM Coastguard at about 10:50 BST

A spokesperson for RWE said: "An incident occurred which led to a fire in the turbine nacelle - the enclosure at the top of the tower which houses the generating components.

"Emergency services were contacted immediately and the Coastguard made aware. They are monitoring the area and advising on a potential 500 metre restriction zone being enforced around the affected turbine

"We would ask people to keep away from the area as assessments are ongoing."


The Scroby Sands wind farm was commissioned in 2004

ANDY PERKINS

Scroby Sands was one of the UK's first commercial offshore wind farms

RWE said its 30 turbines had an installed capacity of 60 megawatts and was able to power more than 48,000 households.

Georgia tribunal rejects recommendation to fire teacher over controversial book reading

Associated Press
Tue, August 15, 2023 

MARIETTA, Ga. (AP) — A trio of retired educators has rejected a suburban Atlanta school district's recommendation to fire a teacher who was removed from the classroom after she was accused of improperly reading a book on gender fluidity to her fifth-grade class.

Monday's move paves the way for Due West Elementary teacher Katie Rinderle to keep her job. But the Cobb County School Board has the final decision, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.

The panel reached a decision after a two-day hearing last week about whether Rinderle should be fired for reading the picture book “My Shadow is Purple” by Scott Stuart. The case has drawn wide attention as a test of what public school teachers can teach in class, how much a school system can control teachers and whether parents can veto instruction they dislike. It comes amid a nationwide conservative backlash to books and teaching about LGBTQ+ subjects in school.

Officials in Cobb County, Georgia’s second-largest school district, argue Rinderle broke the school district’s rules against teaching on controversial subjects and decided to fire her after parents complained. She is believed to be the first public school teacher in Georgia to face termination under the regulations modeled after new state laws that require teachers to get preapproval to bring up potentially sensitive topics in the classroom.

But a district-appointed, three-person tribunal that heard the case denied the district’s recommendation to terminate her employment.

“I appreciate the tribunal’s consideration of my case and decision not to terminate me,” Rinderle said in an emailed statement to the newspaper through the Southern Poverty Law Center. “However, I disagree that I’ve violated any policy and that finding remains unjust and punitive. The district has never provided adequate guidance on how I am supposed to know what is and what is not allowed in the classroom based on these vague policies. Prioritizing behaviors and attitudes rooted in bigotry and discrimination does not benefit students and undermines the quality of education and the duty of educators.”

The school board will have the choice to adopt, reject or modify the tribunal’s decision during Thursday’s school board meeting. Board Chair Brad Wheeler told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the board would discuss the case this week.

“The board will review the tribunal’s recommendation and looks forward to returning our entire focus on educating all of our talented students,” a spokesperson for the school district said in an email.

WW III

China watching closely as US, Japan, South Korea aim for 'de facto Asian NATO'

South China Morning Post
Tue, August 15, 2023 

China is said to be on "high alert" as US President Joe Biden hosts the leaders of Japan and South Korea at Camp David this week to deepen technological and defence ties - building what some observers have called a "de facto Asian Nato" on China's doorstep.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will be joining Biden on Friday at the US presidential retreat in rural Maryland for the first three-way summit of its kind.

They are expected to announce plans for expanded cooperation on ballistic missile defence systems and technology development, senior US officials told Reuters.

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They are likely to also agree to set up a new three-way crisis hotline and gather annually in the future, Reuters quoted the officials as saying.

In Beijing, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China was opposed to "the cobbling together of various small circles by the countries concerned".

"[China] also opposes practices that exacerbate confrontation and jeopardise the strategic security of other countries," Wang said.

"The countries concerned should follow the trend of the times and do more that is conducive to regional peace, stability and prosperity."

Lu Chao, dean of the Institute of American and East Asian Studies at Liaoning University in northeastern China, said Friday's meeting could lead to a trilateral military alliance that would hit a nerve in Beijing.

"The [likely] mechanism of regular meetings among heads of state and the fixed mechanism of cooperation in the military aspect amount to the de facto formation of a three-way military alliance," Lu said.

While North Korea is expected to top the agenda, Beijing will be watching for specific references to Taiwan in the joint statement expected to be issued at the end of the summit, observers in mainland China said.

Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province to be eventually reunited, by force if needs be. While most countries, including the US, Japan and South Korea, do not recognise self-ruled Taiwan as an independent state, but oppose any attempt to take the island by force.

"China is on high alert for the summit, especially if the Taiwan issue is to be mentioned," Lu said.


"If they raise the Taiwan issue publicly at the summit, it would be seen as a strong provocation to China and will be a dangerous move for stability in the Asia-Pacific."

Taiwan's Vice President William Lai (centre left) chats with Ingrid D. Larson (right) managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan/Washington Office, upon arrival in New York on Sunday. Photo: Taiwan Presidential Office via AP alt=Taiwan's Vice President William Lai (centre left) chats with Ingrid D. Larson (right) managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan/Washington Office, upon arrival in New York on Sunday. Photo: Taiwan Presidential Office via AP>

The statement would also contain general observations on maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, though the exact wording was expected to be negotiated up until the last minute, an anonymous US official told Reuters.

Friday's summit comes after months of diplomacy by the Biden administration, which has tried to bring together Washington's treaty allies Japan and South Korea as part of a campaign to strengthen Asian military alliances to counter China.

The US signed the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan in 1951. In 1953, following the Korean war armistice, it signed a Mutual Defence Treaty with South Korea.

Tokyo and Seoul have a troubled history, especially over Japan's wartime excesses as well as territorial issues, but a rising China, Russia's militarism and a nuclear-armed North Korea are factors bringing the two neighbours closer to each other and the US.

Tensions had peaked from time to time, until a major thaw in recent months as Yoon, who took office in May last year, has sought to repair ties with Japan and launched a strategic pivot to the US, to tackle growing military challenges from North Korea and souring ties with China and Russia.

North Korea test-fired around 90 missiles last year, nearly four times its peak of 25 in 2017. Last month, it tested its latest Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile, saying it was a warning to the US and other adversaries.

During an inspection tour of a military factory last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for an increase in missile production to help secure "overwhelming military power" and be ready for war, state news agency KCNA reported.

This came days before annual joint US-South Korean military exercises due to begin on Monday.

Under the principle of collective defence in Article 5 of the Nato treaty, an attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all Nato members.

But Liu Jiangyong, an expert on regional affairs at Beijing's Tsinghua University, voiced scepticism about a trilateral alliance comparable to Nato.

"The three countries do not have the security commitments that Nato countries have with each other, and Japan and South Korea are security partners, not allies," Liu said.

The strategic goals of the three countries were also different, he said.

"The US may consider [its goals] from a global perspective, while Japan is largely targeting China ... South Korea, meanwhile, is trying to strengthen security cooperation with the US and Japan to build a greater military deterrent against North Korea."

However, he expected "joint military exercises and trilateral consultations against China" to continue.

In a speech on Tuesday marking the 78th anniversary of South Korea's liberation from Japanese colonial rule, Yoon said his country would step up security cooperation with the US and Japan in addressing the nuclear threat from North Korea.

Kim Jae-chun, an international relations professor at Sogang University in Seoul, also said any trilateral military technology cooperation would largely focus on North Korea.

"While previously the discussion remained on sharing the alert on North Korean missiles, now it will focus on the drills to intercept North Korean ballistic missiles using their radar and missile weapons systems," Kim said.

"I think it has a great meaning in deterring North Korean nuclear development. However, China will criticise South Korea's incorporation into the US missile defence system."

Kim said while the joint statement after the trilateral summit was not likely to point at China as a threat, the US-China rivalry had already turned into a strategic competition, regardless of the aims of the trilateral summit.

"The current trend shows that China-Russia-North Korea cooperation is strengthening in northeast Asia and US-South Korea-Japan ties are also increasing in response ... it appears that the two sides are containing each other."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2023 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

NO JUSTICE! NO PEACE!
Oklahoma's high court will consider a reparations case from 1921 Tulsa Race Massacre survivors

AYANNA ALEXANDER and SEAN MURPHY
Updated Wed, August 16, 2023 


 People raise up their arms during the dedication of a prayer wall outside of the historic Vernon African Methodist Episcopal Church in the Greenwood neighborhood during the centennial of the Tulsa Race Massacre, May 31, 2021, in Tulsa, Okla. he state of Oklahoma says it is unwilling to participate in settlement discussions with survivors who are seeking reparations for the 1921 Tulsa Race Massacre and that a Tulsa County judge properly dismissed the case in July 2023. The Oklahoma attorney general's litigation division filed its response Monday, Aug. 14, 2023, with the Oklahoma Supreme Court. 

(AP Photo/John Locher, File)


OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — The Oklahoma Supreme Court will consider a reparations case from survivors of the 1921 Tulsa Race Massacre after a lower court judge dismissed it last month, giving hope to advocates for racial justice that government may make amends in one of the worst single acts of violence against Black people in U.S. history.

Tulsa County District Judge Caroline Wall dismissed the case on July 9. Survivors appealed and the state's high court agreed last week to consider whether that decision was proper and if the case should be returned to her court for further consideration.

In response to the appeal, the state told the court Monday that it won't consider a settlement with the survivors. The survivors want the state's high court to return the case to district court to determine exactly what occurred and what it would take to fix or abate what they allege is a continuing nuisance created by the massacre.

Just three survivors of the attack are known to still be living, all more than 100 years old. Lessie Benningfield Randle, Viola Fletcher and Hughes Van Ellis have sued for reparations from the city, state and others for the white mob's destruction of the once-thriving Black district known as Greenwood. Several other original plaintiffs who are descendants of survivors were dismissed from the case by the trial court judge last year.


“The survivors of the Tulsa Race Massacre are heroes, and Oklahoma has had 102 years to do right by them,” their attorney, Damario Solomon-Simmons, said in a statement to The Associated Press. "The state’s efforts to gaslight the living survivors, whitewash history, and move the goal posts for everyone seeking justice in Oklahoma puts all of us in danger, and that is why we need the Oklahoma Supreme Court to apply the rule of law.”

The lawsuit was brought under Oklahoma's public nuisance law, saying actions of the white mob that killed hundreds of Black residents and destroyed what had been the nation’s most prosperous Black business district continue to affect the city's Black community. It alleges Tulsa’s long history of racial division and tension stemmed from the massacre.

But the state says that argument was properly dismissed by Judge Wall. The judge properly determined that the plaintiffs failed to outline a clearly identifiable claim for relief, Assistant Attorney General Kevin McClure wrote in the state's response to the appeal.

"All their allegations are premised on conflicting historical facts from over 100 years ago, wherein they have failed to properly allege how the Oklahoma Military Department created (or continues to be responsible for) an ongoing ‘public nuisance,’ McClure wrote.

McClure claims the state's National Guard was activated only to quell the disturbance and left Tulsa after the mission was accomplished. The survivors' lawsuit alleges National Guard members participated in the massacre, systematically rounding up African Americans and “going so far as to kill those who would not leave their homes.”

Solomon-Simmons said the state's response denies the need for restorative justice for Black victims.

"We have people that suffered the harm that are still living, and we had the perpetrators, the city, the state, the county chamber, they are still here also,” he said. “Yes, the bombings have stopped. The shooting has stopped. The burning has stopped. But the buildings that were destroyed, they were never rebuilt.”

The attorney general's office represents only the Oklahoma Military Department. Tulsa officials have declined to discuss the appeal, citing the ongoing litigation. A Tulsa Chamber of Commerce attorney previously said that the massacre was horrible, but the nuisance it caused was not ongoing.

In 2019, Oklahoma’s attorney general used the public nuisance law to force drugmaker Johnson & Johnson to pay the state $465 million in damages for the opioid crisis. The Oklahoma Supreme Court overturned that decision two years later.

China's CATL launches fast charging LFP battery, mass production expected by year-end

Reuters
Wed, August 16, 2023


BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese battery giant CATL on Wednesday launched a fast charging lithium iron phosphate or LFP battery capable of running 400 km (248 miles) on a 10-minute charge.

Mass production of the new battery called Shenxing is expected by the end of the year while electric vehicles equipped with Shenxing batteries will hit the market in the first quarter of 2024，Gao Han, chief technology officer of CATL's E-Car Business, told an online briefing.

"We hope through continuous efforts to improve technology and reduce costs, Shenxing will become a standard product available for every electric vehicle," Gao said.

CATL has scrambled to maintain its industry leadership while facing challenges of weakening demand and pressure to cut costs from EV makers amid a price war and a slowdown in auto sales this year.

CATL, which counts Tesla as its biggest client, has been losing market share to BYD, a major automaker that powers all its EVs with its own batteries.

Automakers such as Chongqing Changan Automobile and Guangzhou Automobile Group also sourced more batteries from smaller suppliers to reduce costs.

(Reporting by Zhang Yan, Qiaoyi Li and Brenda Goh; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Tomasz Janowski)

Tesla supplier CATL unveils battery that can add up to 400km of range in 10 minutes

Rita Liao
Wed, August 16, 2023

Image Credits: CATL


CATL, the Chinese battery giant and a major supplier to Tesla, has unveiled its latest product that aims to solve electric vehicles' charging and range limitations. The battery, dubbed Shenxing or "god-like movement", is able to refuel up to 400 kilometers (250 miles) of range in 10 minutes, Gao Han, chief technology officer of CATL's e-car division, said at a launch briefing on Wednesday.

That means vehicles powered by Shenxing can drive from New York to Boston (about 215 miles) after just 10 minutes of fast charging. Mass production of the battery is expected to be underway by the end of 2023, with shipping to begin in 2024.

Shenxing claims to be "the world's first 4C superfast charging LFP battery. "LFP stands for lithium iron phosphate, a type of battery chemistry that Tesla widely adapted in 2021 for its shorter-range cars in place of nickel-cobalt-aluminum.

China is a big proponent of LFP, a technology spearheaded by its renewable energy darling CATL, which topped the global EV battery market with a 35% share in Q1, according to research firm SNE. This type of battery is known for its cheap prices and chemical stability, though it has a lower energy density than other battery chemistries, which is a drag on EVs' range.

CATL's extraordinary growth has been buoyed by an EV boom in China over the last few years. But the EV industry is decelerating as government subsidies shrink and consumption contracts amid a post-COVID economic downturn. Meanwhile, the Fujian-based battery manufacturers face heated competition from BYD, the Chinese EV giant that also makes its own battery. In Q1, BYD trailed CATL in second place with a 16.2% share of the global EV battery market.


Congress probes Ford’s big battery deal with China’s CATL

Odds of 'strong' El Niño now over 95%, with ocean temperatures to 'substantially exceed' last big warming event

Sascha Pare
Tue, August 15, 2023 

A picture of the ocean on the Pacific coast in San Diego.

This year's El Niño may drive ocean temperatures to "substantially exceed" those recorded during the last strong event in early 2016, scientists have warned.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) latest El Niño update also says there is a more than 95% chance the event will last through to February 2024, with far-reaching climate impacts.

"El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter," NOAA staff wrote in the update. "Our global climate models are predicting that the warmer-than-average Pacific ocean conditions will not only last through the winter, but continue to increase."

Scientists officially announced the onset of El Niño in early June. El Niño is an ocean-warming event that typically occurs every two to seven years in the central and eastern Pacific, driving air temperatures up around the globe.

Its strongest climate impacts are usually felt during the Northern Hemisphere's winter and early spring, bringing more rain and storms across the southern U.S., southeastern South America, the Horn of Africa and eastern Asia. In other parts of the world, such as southeastern Africa and Indonesia, El Niño leads to drier conditions and may increase the risk of drought.

Related: Florida waters now 'bona fide bathtub conditions' as heat dome engulfs state

To track El Niño's progress, scientists measured sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. Abnormally high temperatures seem to confirm early predictions that this year's event could be a big one. Atmospheric conditions are also consistent with a long-lasting El Niño, according to NOAA.

"El Niño is a coupled phenomenon, meaning the changes we see in the ocean surface temperatures must be matched by changes in the atmospheric patterns above the tropical Pacific," the update said. More rain and clouds over the central Pacific, as well as weak pressure in the east and reduced trade wind activity in the west, suggest "the system is engaged and that these conditions will last through the winter," staff added.

Two maps show the climate effects of El Niño in the summer and winter.

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific exceeded the long-term average for 1991 to 2020 by 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) throughout the month of July. Temperatures from May to July — a three-month average called the Oceanic Niño Index — were also 1.4 F (0.8 C) higher than usual and marked the second warmer-than-average Oceanic Niño Index in a row.

"We need to see five consecutive three-month averages above this threshold before these periods will be considered a historical 'El Niño episode,'" the update said. "Two is a good start."

There is "a good chance" the Oceanic Niño Index will match or exceed the threshold for a "strong" El Niño, the update added.

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And forecasters are now confident the event will remain strong through to next year, although this doesn't necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, they noted

El Niño affects global weather patterns, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. The event usually dampens hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean, but this year's sizzling water temperatures could mitigate this dampening effect , according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

While a hurricane update in May predicted a 30% chance of higher activity over the Atlantic, the latest forecast said there is a 60% chance of an "above normal season," with up to 21 named storms and five major hurricanes.

Hawaii's climate future: dry regions get drier with global warming, increasing fire risk − while wet areas get wetter

Kevin Hamilton, Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii
Wed, August 16, 2023 

THE CONVERSATION

Hawaii has very dry landscapes, such as parts of the west coast of Oahu. 

Maria Ermolova/iStock/Getty Images Plus


The islands of Hawaii are world renowned for their generally pleasant and tranquil weather. However, the Aug. 8, 2023, wildfire tragedy on Maui was a stark reminder that Hawaii also can experience drought and hot, dry, windy weather, providing the conditions for destructive fires.

Hawaii has seen a generally rising trend in the amount of land that burns each year as the local climate warms. Climate change was one of several contributors to Maui’s wildfire catastrophe, and rising temperatures and associated rainfall changes are expected to increase the islands’ fire risk. These changing weather patterns will also affect Hawaii’s ecosystems and freshwater resources.

I am a meteorologist at the University of Hawaii, and I have worked with colleagues to develop sophisticated computer climate simulations that project local rainfall changes over the 21st century.

Our results suggest that as the planet warms, Hawaii’s dry regions will get drier, heightening the fire risk. At the same time, its wet areas will become wetter.

In dry areas, fields of dry grasses, like these near Waimea on the Big Island of Hawaii, can spread a wildfire quickly on a windy day. AP Photo/Caleb Jones

Runoff from frequent rainfall in the mountains keeps taro fields wet in Kauai, but flooding from heavy rain can wash in mud, harming the culturally important crop. on G. Fuller/VW Pics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The drier parts of the state in particular have reason to be concerned about the future of fresh water available for residential, commercial and agricultural uses. In addition, changes in rainfall are expected to affect the distribution of plants in Hawaii, harming some unique native species such as silversword and increasing some invasive grass species that enhance fire danger.
Average rainfall drops sharply in the rain shadow

While Hawaii is home to some of the wettest spots on earth, it also has regions that receive little rain.


The very steep mountains on each of the main Hawaiian islands block the prevailing northeast trade winds. This results in abundant rain on the slopes facing the windward direction and dry “rain shadows” in the leeward areas. Maui’s west coast tourist communities, including Lahaina, are in one of those rain shadows.


The top map shows the long-term average rainfall rate observed in Hawaii. The bottom map displays the result of the computer simulation, showing how closely the rain shadows are reproduced.

Adapted from Zhang et al., Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society

Hawaii is remarkable for its exceptionally strong gradations in the average rainfall rates over very short distances. The summit of Mt. Waialeale in central Kauai, known as one of the rainiest places on Earth, receives an average of about 450 inches of rain per year. The town of Kehaka, 15 miles to the southwest and in the rain shadow, receives less than 20 inches per year on average.

These sharp differences over short distances have made projecting future climate change in Hawaii a particularly daunting challenge.

Computer models used to project the future climate approximate the atmospheric wind, temperature and humidity at discrete points on a regular grid. The horizontal spacing between grid points in global climate models is typically 20 miles or larger. To put that in perspective, Maui is only 26 miles by 48 miles at its widest.
Predicting Hawaii’s changing climate

We created a model that zooms in on Hawaii and is able to capture those variations, including the rain shadow effect.

Using that model, we simulated the Hawaiian climate at the end of the 21st century under a scenario in which global greenhouse gas emissions from human activities continue at a rate that drives a global increase of temperature of about 4 degrees Fahrenheit (2.2 C). Such a scenario is quite plausible and even demands some significant reduction in current emission rates, but still pushes well beyond the internationally agreed goal of keeping global warming under 3.6 F (2 C) compared with preindustrial levels.

We found that in the wet windward areas of Hawaii, rainfall is projected to increase substantially. That includes increasingly frequent extreme downpours. On the other hand, rainfall is predicted to decrease substantially over much of the rain shadow regions.

The change in average rainfall rates projected to occur over the 21st century as simulated in the computer model. These changes are expressed as a percentage of present-day rainfall rates at each location. Adapted from Zhang et al., Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society

This overall “wet gets wetter and dry gets drier” trend is generally found in global model projections of climate warming. Our computer model shows that it also applies to the rainfall gradations over the very short distances relevant for Hawaii.

The “dry gets drier” aspect is particularly important for formulating Hawaii’s plans to adapt to climate change. The soil in already dry regions may become even drier as rainfall decreases and warmer air promotes more evaporation from the surface. That includes Maui’s highly developed west coast and agricultural areas that until recently were home to large sugar cane farms.
Developing better projections to help prepare

Rainfall rates will still vary year to year. Indeed, Hawaii rainfall is known to display quite strong year-to-year and even decade-to-decade variations, due in large part to the influences of El Niño and the Pacific decadal oscillation, both natural climate patterns. Such natural variations are expected to coexist with the overall centurylong trend toward drier or wetter conditions.

Simulating rainfall in climate models still has many uncertainties, and there are particular challenges in representing the fine geographical details of the rain in Hawaii. Another study using a different approach produced results broadly consistent with ours but projects an overall stronger drying trend in the islands.

While further research should help reduce the uncertainties in climate projections, our results suggest that, in the long term, Hawaii needs to prepare for more extreme conditions, including a heightened risk of wildfires.

This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. 

It was written by: Kevin Hamilton, University of Hawaii.

Read more:

After Maui fires, human health risks linger in the air, water and even surviving buildings

Maui’s deadly wildfires burn through Lahaina – it’s a reminder of the growing risk to communities that once seemed safe

Kevin Hamilton has received funding from NASA, NOAA, US Department of Interior, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.

'You're kind of raised to hate tourists': Maui fires fan tensions on Hawaiian island

Holly Honderich & Max Matza in Maui - BBC News
Tue, August 15, 2023 

Many of Maui's tourists heeded calls to leave the island. Others remained


After wildfires devastated parts of the Hawaiian island of Maui, one of the most popular tourist destinations in the US, officials warned visitors to stay away. But thousands remained and others continued to fly in, angering residents in the wake of the tragedy.

At Maui's Wailea Beach on Monday the skies were bright and clear. Luxury hotels lined the beachfront, their guests spread on the sand. Some waded in the ocean, while others sat under umbrellas with white monogrammed towels on their chairs.

Inside one of the hotels, beyond a pool, a two-tiered fountain and a glass-walled habitat for the resident parrot, was a wooden-framed screen advertising a relief fund for the resort's employees - the first sign of the destruction in Lahaina, just 30 miles (48km) up the coast.

In the wake of the wildfires, the deadliest in modern US history, frustration at tourists who have chosen to carry on with their holidays has grown. Many in Maui say the devastation has highlighted what is known as the "two Hawaiis" - one built for the comfort of visitors and another, harsher Hawaii left to Hawaiians.

"It's all butterflies and rainbows when it comes to the tourism industry," said a 21-year-old Maui native and an employee at the hotel who asked to remain anonymous. "But what's really under it is kind of scary."




Last Wednesday, a day after the wildfires, the county asked visitors to leave Lahaina and the island as a whole as soon as possible.

Officials soon urged people to avoid the island entirely, except for essential travel. "In the days and weeks ahead, our collective resources and attention must be focused on the recovery of residents and communities that were forced to evacuate," the Hawaii Tourism Authority said.

Many travellers heeded the advice. In the immediate aftermath of the fires, some 46,000 people left the island. The grass field separating the airport from the surrounding highway is now lined with rows upon rows of suddenly surplus rental cars.

'It's devastating' - Inside Lahaina after wildfires


Hawaii wildfires: Your questions answered

But thousands did not. Some ignored requests to leave Maui immediately, while others flew in after the fire - decisions that have angered some.

"If this was happening to your hometown, would you want us to come?" said resident Chuck Enomoto. "We need to take care of our own first."

Maui's Wailea is the domain of the island's wealthy visitors

Another Maui local told the BBC that tourists were swimming in the "same waters that our people died in three days ago" - an apparent reference to a snorkelling excursion on Friday just 11 miles from Lahaina.

The snorkelling company later apologised for running the tour, saying it had first "offered our vessel throughout the week to deliver supplies and rescue people but its design wasn't appropriate for the task".

But the opposition to tourists is not without complications given the island is economically reliant on those travellers. The Maui Economic Development Board has estimated that the island's "visitor industry" accounts for roughly four out of every five dollars generated here, calling those visitors the "economic engine" of the county.

"You're kind of raised to hate tourists," said the young hotel worker. "But that's really the only way to work on the islands. If it's not hospitality then it's construction."

Surplus rental cars sit outside Maui's airport after thousands of visitors left the island

Several business owners expressed concern that the growing anti-tourist sentiment could hurt Maui further.

"What I'm afraid of is that if people keep seeing 'Maui's closed', and 'don't come to Maui', what little business is left is going to be gone," said Daniel Kalahiki, who owns a food truck in Wailuku. Sales have already dropped by 50% since the fire, he said. "And then the island is going to lose everything."

Still, in the days after the fire, the disparity between Maui residents - reeling from catastrophic loss - and the insulated tourist hotspots has been laid bare.

In one Hawaii, locals face an acute housing crisis. Many live in modest one-storey homes in neighbourhoods like Kahlui and Kihei, some in multi-family dwellings, with each family separated by a curtain or a thin plywood wall.

And working a number of jobs is common, locals told the BBC, to keep up with rising costs. Jen Alcantara shrugged off surprise that she worked for a Canadian airline in addition to a senior administrative position at Maui's hospital. "That's Hawaii," she said.

In this Hawaii, the effects of the fires are everywhere. At shops and grocery stores, evacuees look for essentials, trying to replace their lost possessions with whatever money they have. At restaurants, workers can be seen in kitchens and behind bars holding back tears and making phone calls to co-ordinate relief efforts.

Here, collections were being taken for the survivors nearly everywhere you look. An upscale coffee shop in Kahului was offering to refrigerate donated breast milk. Food truck owners were volunteering their services to the front line and farmers were carrying bunches of bananas to shelters.

Daniel Kalahiki says tourists are 'essential' to prevent the Lahaina disaster from spreading

Things are different in the other Hawaii.

As you reach the end of the 30-minute drive from the island's urban centre to Wailea, home to Maui's high-end holiday rentals and resorts, the earth suddenly changes, dry brown grasses become a rich, watered green.

"It's a blunt line," one local said, another hotel employee who did not want to be named.

Inside Wailea, gated communities border golf courses, that are connected to luxury hotels. Inside those hotels, obliging staff provide surf lessons and pool-side meals, including a $29 burger.

Staff told the BBC that many of the guests were sympathetic to the crisis on the west of the island. Others had complained about scheduled activities in Lahaina - horse-riding, ziplining - being cancelled, said Brittany Pounder, 34, an employee at the Four Seasons.

The day after the fires, one guest visiting from California, asked if he could still get to his dinner reservation at the Lahaina Grill - a restaurant in one of the hardest-hit areas of the town. "It's not OK," Ms Pounder said.

There is mounting concern that the eventual rebuild of Lahaina will further cater to this second Hawaii.

Already, wealthy visitors have contributed to exorbitant house prices, buying land and property in a place where homeownership is out of reach for many permanent residents. Famous billionaires Peter Thiel and Jeff Bezos both have homes in Maui. Oprah Winfrey is the island's largest landowner.

Rumours have spread of estate agents approaching Hawaiian property owners in Lahaina, asking about possible deals.

Several locals told the BBC they worried Lahaina would be refashioned into another Waikiki, the ritzy waterfront of Honolulu, dominated by oceanfront high-rises and branded luxury shopping.

"We don't need another Waikiki," said Chuck Enomoto. "But it's inevitable."

Maui satellite photo shows full scale of deadliest US fire for more than a century

Harry Baker
Tue, August 15, 2023 


A map of Maui with Lahaina highlighted in a white box. A majority of the town is covered in flames.

A new satellite photo has captured a somber aerial view of the devastating wildfire that burned through the town of Lahaina on Hawaii's Maui island last week.

On Aug. 8, fast-moving flames appeared on Lahaina's border and rapidly spread through the town, burning down buildings, exploding cars and filling the air with ash and smoke. Many survivors, who either fled the town or escaped into the ocean, reported knowing almost nothing about the fire until the flames were almost right on top of them, CNN reported.

At least 99 people were killed by the fire, making it the most deadly U.S. fire in more than a century. But the death toll is expected to rise significantly as emergency responders continue to search destroyed buildings for people who are still missing, Hawaii governor Josh Green told CNN.

A night time satellite image of Maui with a bright yellow patch representing where the flames were

The Landsat 8 satellite, which is co-owned by NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey, captured an image of Maui at around 10:25 p.m. local time on Aug. 8, which reveals the fires almost completely engulfing Lahaina, as well another large but less deadly wildfire northeast of Kihei. The satellite image shows the spike in infrared radiation given off by the flames overlaid on a natural color image of the island.

The Lahaina fire moved rapidly because it was fanned by unusually strong winds, which were fueled by a strong high-pressure area to the north of the island and the remnants of Hurricane Dora to the south, according to NASA's Earth Observatory. The gusts ranged from 45 to 67 mph (72 to 107 km/h). Green said that at its peak, the blaze traveled at around 1 mile (1.6 kilometers) every minute.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has said it is too early to calculate the cost of the damages caused by the fires, but Green told CNN the losses could equate to up to $6 billion. "This is the largest natural disaster we've ever experienced [in Hawaii]," he added. "It's going to also be a natural disaster that's going to take an incredible amount of time to recover from."

Why the Maui Wildfires Were So Deadly

Solcyre Burga

TIME
Wed, August 16, 2023

The devastating Maui wildfires have killed at least 99 people so far, and have burned more than 2,500 acres across historic towns like Lahaina, destroying homes and businesses in the region. It is now the deadliest wildfire incident in the U.S. in over a century, and the worst natural disaster in Hawaii’s history.

The catastrophe began on Aug. 8. High winds, that some officials say may have been as strong as 60-81 mph, engulfed the area in flames at a rate that was difficult to escape. A lagging emergency warning system caused chaos on the island, with anecdotes of survivors running to the ocean to escape the flames. More than a thousand people remain unaccounted for.

A week later, officials still do not know what the exact cause of the fires were, but experts say that the wildfires' devastation is due to a mix of high temperatures, strong winds from a Category 4 storm near the islands, and drought conditions that dried out grasses on the island.

Annually, about 0.5% of Hawaii’s total land area burns due to wildfires, according to the Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization. Seventy-five percent of these fires are caused by humans and therefore preventable, but none have ever been as devastating as the Maui wildfires.

Read more: What Remains After the Flames: Scenes From the Ash-Colored Streets of Maui

Experts warn that extreme weather conditions and disasters like these wildfires will occur more frequently and with greater intensity due to climate change, though that is not the only contributing factor at hand. “When the air is hotter it can hold more water vapor, so that means you get more water evaporating from plants, and that dries them out,” says Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. “But you can't blame it just on climate change, that's for sure. Humans are causing this wildfire risk in multiple ways.”

What caused the fires? 

Officials are still unclear on what exactly sparked the fires in Maui, though focus has turned towards the state’s biggest power utility company, Hawaiian Electric, to assess their role in the wildfires.

Lahaina residents are suing the company because they allege Hawaiian Electric’s equipment was not strong enough to withstand such fast winds, and that the company should have shut down the power before winds reached such high levels—a common practice in states like California, which experiences the most wildfires nationwide.

Regardless, the deadly blazes were also caused by a combination of conditions including hot weather, strong winds, and a drought that has been affecting the state since the month of May.

The island was under high alert because of Hurricane Dora, a Category 4 storm that traveled hundreds of miles away from the island, making its closest approach to the islands on Aug. 8. The exact effect Hurricane Dora had on the wildfires remains unclear. Hurricane Expert Phillippe Papin from the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center tweeted that the hurricane may have played a minor role in the fires because it had a small wind field, which is the area that is potentially affected by the storm’s sustained winds. But other experts like Masters note that the tropical storm still created a “very strong high pressure system” that may have contributed to the high gusts of wind.

“If you give a spark in those kinds of conditions, drought plus heat plus wind, it can lead to very rapid fire spread and very intense fires,” Masters says.

Read more: How to Help Those Affected by the Maui Wildfires

Temperatures on the day of the fires were also up to 90°F, which dries out vegetation and makes it more fire prone, according to Masters.

He adds that the presence of invasive grasses, like guinea grass, also fueled the fires forward. Nonnative grasses that were used to feed livestock or for ornamental purposes were brought to the island decades ago, and are now posing hazardous risks because they are highly flammable.

Was the community prepared for it?

Questions related to the preparedness of the state have risen as details about the day of the fires revealed that emergency sirens did not alert residents to what was happening.

“I don't think we were ready for it,” Maximus Yarawamai, a 63-year-old gardener, tells TIME. Yarawamai, who traveled from his home on the Big Island to Lahaina to help the community in need, compares the damage he’s seen to what he imagines Pearl Harbor or the Twin Towers to have looked like after those catastrophes. “I think we never thought that this would happen in Hawaii. We've had fires but not this magnitude.”

Yarawamai’s words echo the sentiments not just of many Hawaiian residents, but likely also of officials who may have been unprepared for fires of this magnitude. A February 2022 emergency management plan by the state of Hawaii rated wildfires as low and medium risk across the board for its effect on people, property, the environment, and emergency management program operations.

A 2021 Maui County report found that the number of incidents caused by fires on the island has increased over the years. While there are annual fluctuations in the destruction caused by fires, Hawaii’s acre burnage before the Maui wildfires peaked at more than 50,000 acres in 2019 compared to slightly over 10,000 in 2007. That report also pointed out potential issues in times of emergency, including limited roads in and out of Maui County that make it more difficult to provide emergency care, and also limit escape routes for residents.

“The investigation revealed that current budgets, combined with County and State access to Federal emergency relief funding, are adequate to meet the current fire threat, but are inadequate for an effective fire prevention and mitigation program,” the report says.

Now, residents like Yarawamai are asking for the government to think of long term solutions. “I think the immediate needs [for disaster recovery] are there,” he says, “but what's the next move? What's the next thing we need to do?”

https://www.marxists.org/archive/bordiga/works/1951/murder.htm

Murder of the Dead by Amadeo Bordiga 1951 

Murder of the Dead ... The basis of marxist economic analysis is the distinction between dead and living labour. We do not define capitalism as the ...