Column: China imports the most energy, but is best placed on Iran

Reuters | March 4, 2026 |

Stock image.

China is the world’s largest energy importer and would therefore appear vulnerable to the surge in crude oil and natural gas prices from the conflict between Israel and the United States against Iran.

But the opposite is most likely the ​case, with China’s vast stockpile of crude a cushion against price spikes, meaning that any energy-led inflation in the rest of the world will not hit China.

It is ‌also possible that China’s refiners could reap windfall profits in the event of a prolonged disruption to crude supplies from the Middle East, by ramping up exports of refined products.

If Asia’s export-orientated refineries in countries such as India and Singapore start to run low on crude supplies, China will have the ability to refine stockpiled crude and export products such as diesel and gasoline to take advantage of the inevitable surge in fuel prices.

China has other advantages as well, ​insofar as it remains the major buyer of sanctioned, but discounted, Russian crude and is also the destination for any Iranian crude at sea that managed to exit the Strait ​of Hormuz before the weekend attacks by Israel and the United States.

China does not disclose how much crude it adds to commercial and strategic inventories, ⁠but an estimate of the surplus oil can be made by adding together crude imports and domestic production and then subtracting refinery throughput.

On this basis, China’s surplus crude was 1.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in ​2025, with especially strong builds toward the end of the year as imports rose sharply, hitting a record high of 13.18 million bpd in December.

While official data on imports and refinery production for the ​first two months of this year are yet to be released, it is likely the strong builds in inventories continued.

China’s crude imports are estimated at 12.47 million bpd for the first two months by LSEG Oil Research, as the country’s refiners took advantage of discounted Russian and Iranian barrels.

If domestic output remained largely steady from December levels of around 4.2 million bpd and refinery throughput held around 14.7 million bpd, the surplus for the January-February period may be ​as high as nearly 2 million bpd.

This level of surplus crude offers China two options.

Firstly it means they can cut imports in coming months and thus mitigate some of the impact of the ​sharp rise in prices, with Brent crude futures jumping 7.3% to end Monday at a one-year high of $77.77 a barrel.

It would not be surprising to see China’s imports drop to about 10.5 million bpd to 11.0 million bpd ‌by May ⁠and June.

The second option is for China to maintain robust refinery throughput, thus ensuring domestic supply and even allowing for increased fuel exports, should Asian prices surge in the event of tighter supply of crude from the Middle East.

Since Beijing also controls domestic prices of retail fuel that means Chinese consumers and businesses will not be exposed to any spike in energy-led inflation that affects competitors in the United States and Europe.

Coal, LNG

China’s advantage extends beyond crude oil to both coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The world’s biggest importer of LNG, China has shown in past episodes of high prices it will cut spot purchases ​and only take long-term cargoes, which tend to ​be either on fixed or oil-linked prices.

China ⁠may also resell LNG cargoes, allowing its utilities to boost profits.

Domestic natural gas output can probably be boosted for a short period and China can also maximise imports via pipelines from central Asia and Russia, thus ensuring that any global price spike does not cross into the domestic market.

Benchmark Asian LNG prices jumped ​almost 39% on Monday morning, with the S&P Global Energy Japan-Korea-Marker, widely used as an Asian LNG benchmark, standing at $15.068 per million British thermal ​units, Platts data showed.

China ⁠is the world’s biggest coal producer and importer and has flexibility to increase domestic output and trim imports if seaborne coal prices rise amid increased demand as an alternative for LNG for power generation.

But China mainly imports thermal coal from Indonesia, and it tends to be of a lower energy content and therefore not sought by European buyers or utilities in Japan and South Korea.

This means that similar to crude oil and LNG, ⁠China is ​largely insulated from any surge in coal prices.

These are already showing signs of moving higher in response to the Iran crisis, ​with globalCOAL assessing Australia’s benchmark Newcastle coal at $121.13 a metric ton on Monday, up 4.7% from the prior close.

(The views expressed here are those of the author, Clyde Russell, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

 

Defense Metals conditionally approved for Canadian infrastructure funding

Staff Writer | March 4, 2026 | 

Aerial view of Wicheeda project. Image provided by Agentis Capital

Defense Metals (TSXV: DEFN) says it has received conditional approval for C$1.88 million ($1.38 million) in Canadian government funding to support the infrastructure development of its flagship rare earths project in British Columbia.

The Vancouver-based company is currently advancing the Wicheeda project located 80 km northeast of Prince George. Considered one of North America’s top near-term rare earth projects, it hosts 25.5 million tonnes in reserves at an average oxide grade of 2.4%. A pre-feasibility study published last year outlined a 15-year rare earth mine that could produce 31,900 tonnes of concentrates annually.

Recently, the project was selected by the BC government for early coordination to fast-track its permitting process as it enters the feasibility stage and undergoes preparation for an environmental assessment.

The C$1.88 million funding, which would come from the federal Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund, would allow Defense Metals to advance the development of a new 60-km transmission line designed to deliver up to 35MW of electricity from the BC Hydro grid directly to the proposed mine site.

Operational efficiency

Access to reliable, grid-based hydroelectric power represents a significant step toward reducing the project’s carbon footprint while strengthening long-term operational efficiency, the company said in a press release on Wednesday.

In addition to constructing the transmission line, the project also entails the engineering design of upgrades to the existing 43-km forest service road connecting Highway 97 to the mine site. These improvements are expected to enhance site accessibility, safety and logistical efficiency during both construction and future operations, Defense Metals added.

These infrastructure developments, which also include BC Hydro interconnection, rail network integration studies and Indigenous engagement initiatives, are scheduled to commence in this year and finish in 2028.

“This conditional funding approval represents an important milestone in advancing critical infrastructure planning for the Wicheeda REE project,” Defense Metals CEO Mark Tory said in the press release. “Securing access to clean, low-carbon hydroelectric power and optimizing transportation networks are key components in positioning Wicheeda as a strategically important domestic source of rare earth elements.”

“The Wicheeda rare earth project is a strong example of how strategic infrastructure like clean electricity, modern transportation corridors and stronger regional connections unlocks the full potential of the minerals beneath our feet,” Tim Hodgson, Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, added.

Shares of Defense Metals dipped by 1.8% by midday Wednesday, for a market capitalization of C$107 million ($78 million).

Vizsla confirms two more deaths in Mexico kidnappings

Henry Lazenby | March 5, 2026 | 

The Panuco silver-gold project in Mexico might start production in 2027. Credit: Vizsla Silver

Vizsla Silver (TSX, NYSE: VZLA) said Thursday two more of the 10 workers taken from its project site in Concordia, Mexico, have been confirmed dead, lifting the death toll to seven.

“Our hearts are with the families who have lost loved ones and with those who continue to wait for answers,” CEO Michael Konnert said in a news release. The company remained focused on helping families and supporting efforts to locate the missing, he said.

The abducted workers were taken in late January in Concordia, a municipality in Mexico’s Sinaloa state about 50 km east of Mazatlán. Authorities have said rival cartel factions have driven a surge in violence in the region, complicating security for businesses and residents.

Vizsla shares fell as much as 4.6% in Toronto on Thursday to an intraday low of C$5.39, before recovering to C$5.51 in afternoon trading. The company has a market capitalization of about C$1.9 billion ($1.4 billion).

Mexican authorities are continuing search efforts and the wider investigation is proceeding with Vizsla’s support. The company said it’s reviewing and strengthening its security protocols in coordination with local authorities.

 

Mexico to tighten coal mining regulations after deadly accident

Reuters | March 5, 2026 | 

Coal mine. Stock image.

Mexico is set to tighten regulations on coal mining operations, the labor ministry said on Thursday, following widespread scrutiny brought on after a 2022 mine collapse killed 10.

The plan eliminates a previous system which allowed “small-scale” coal mining operations to be subject to less strict safety requirements or exemptions from certain rules.

The 2022 disaster in the northern border state of Coahuila highlighted the dangers workers face at Mexico’s small, unregulated coal mines and drew criticism of state utility CFE, which the mine provided with coal.

Last year, eight workers in a Coahuila coal mine were briefly trapped after the winch pulling their mine cart broke, local media reported.

The fresh regulations mandate larger tunnel dimensions for structural safety, ventilation systems to ensure adequate oxygen, and new technical standards for ramp inclinations, the labor ministry said.

Beyond powering a small percent of Mexico’s energy grid, coal is used in the country by steelmakers such as ArcelorMittal.

(By Kylie Madry; Editing by Natalia Siniawski)

First Nations Coalition says Indigenous equity key to faster mining approvals in Canada

Amanda Stutt | March 5, 2026 | 

Oil pipeline. Stock image by serikbaib.

Indigenous ownership in major mining and resource projects could help accelerate permitting timelines in Canada while improving economic outcomes for First Nations, according to the First Nations Major Projects Coalition (FNMPC). 

The national non-profit, which represents 186 First Nations across the country, works with Indigenous communities to help them participate in large-scale developments ranging from mining and energy to transmission infrastructure. 

“We’re a capacity service group. We help Nations get to the table,” FNMPC CEO Mark Podlasly said in an interview with MINING.COM the week of the PDAC 2026 global mining convention in Toronto. 

Podlasly is of the Nlaka’pamux Nation (NNTC), whose traditional territory is in the southern interior of British Columbia and extends into the state of Washington. NNTC is actively involved in protecting Nlaka’pamux traditional cultural properties related to the Seattle City Light Hydro Project. 

Coalition origins 

Founded 11 years ago in British Columbia, the Coalition emerged after a group of First Nations missed out on a major investment opportunity tied to a C$5 billion natural gas pipeline project. Eleven Nations had negotiated a 30% equity stake, but when they approached banks for financing they were treated as high-risk borrowers. 

“First Nations went to the bank to finance their equity and discovered they had no collateral,” Podlasly said. “They were offered credit-card level interest rates — 30% or 35%.” 

Unable to secure affordable financing, the Nations lost the investment opportunity — an inflection point that led to the creation of the Coalition to help Indigenous communities overcome structural barriers to capital and commercial participation in resource projects. 

Today the Coalition provides technical support to its members project economics and commodity markets, environmental assessments and regulatory processes. The organization employs about 35 staff across Canada, roughly 70% of whom are Indigenous, including economists, lawyers and finance specialists. 

“You can’t make an informed decision unless you have the information,” Podlasly said. “That’s what we do — technical, regulatory and financial.” 

From consultation to ownership 

For decades, Indigenous participation in major projects largely focused on consultation and impact-benefit agreements. But the Coalition says the landscape is shifting toward direct equity ownership. 

“It’s not nations asking for grants anymore,” Podlasly said. “Nations want to co-invest.” 

Equity participation can give communities a long-term revenue stream while aligning their interests with project developers, Podlasly said. “If you bring a First Nation in as a partner, they bring capital and they bring rights that will have to be addressed anyway.”  

The Coalition has advised on or supported several projects that include Indigenous ownership. 

In Ontario, First Nations have secured about 50% equity stakes in  electricity transmission projects. In British Columbia, multiple Coalition members collectively hold a 10% stake in the Coastal GasLink pipeline, a 670-km natural gas pipeline connecting Dawson Creek to the LNG Canada facility in Kitimat.

Other initiatives include the North Coast transmission line project in northern British Columbia, where First Nations are expected to hold roughly 50% equity, and a 100% Indigenous-owned geothermal project in Fort Nelson, Podlasly said.

The Coalition has also begun advising on mining projects, including an early-stage lithium development in northern Ontario. Some projects listed on the Coalition’s website remain confidential while negotiations are ongoing. 

Source: FNMPC

Partnership and permitting 

As global demand for critical minerals grows and governments move to secure domestic supply chains, Canada has increasingly focused on accelerating project approvals. Federal officials have pledged to shorten timelines for major developments in mining and energy. 

At PDAC this week Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson said Canada will lead the Group of 20 nations with the fastest permits as the government’s Major Projects Office (MPO) advances projects to production within two years.

The Coalition says Indigenous participation could be key to making that happen. 

“If you have an Indigenous partner with an economic stake who wants the project to succeed, are they going to oppose it?” Podlasly said. “Probably not.” In that sense, equity partnerships can help reduce regulatory delays, Podlasly pointed out.  “Indigenous ownership can actually shorten permitting timelines,” he said. 

But the Coalition also cautions that projects imposed without Indigenous participation could still face strong opposition. 

“If projects are dropped in the way they were done in the past, Nations will fight,” he said. 

Instead, the Coalition advocates what it calls “smart projects” — developments that incorporate Indigenous environmental values, economic participation and community consent. 

“As long as Indigenous environmental and economic interests are built into the project — and the nation wants it — we support it,” Podlasly said. 

National competitiveness 

The Coalition says the conversation around Indigenous participation in major projects has evolved significantly over the past decade. 

“It’s not just an Indigenous issue anymore,” Podlasly said. “It’s about national economic competitiveness.” 

With Canada seeking to develop critical minerals and energy infrastructure in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment, collaboration between Indigenous communities, governments and industry will be essential, the Coalition says. 

Indigenous ownership could also reshape the relationship between communities and resource development. 

Rather than being seen solely as stakeholders or rights holders, Podlasly said First Nations can become partners in projects that take place on their territories. 

“Indigenous people are Canadians. We’re going to sink or swim together.” 

The 9th annual First Nations Major Projects Coalition Conference will take place April 29 to May 1 at the Sheraton Centre Toronto. Information is here.  

 

Peru taps fuel reserves to combat worst energy crunch in two decades

Reuters | March 6, 2026 | 

Oil & gas pipelines. AI-generated stock image.

 Peru will draw on fuel reserves to safeguard domestic supply, Prime Minister Denisse Miralles said on Friday, after a gas pipeline rupture triggered the most severe energy crisis in two decades.

The government will urge public and private‑sector employees to work remotely while shifting schools to online learning, she added.

The emergency measures follow suspension of natural gas exports on Thursday as Peru scrambles to contain the fallout from the gas‑pipeline rupture on Sunday that choked energy supplies and triggered a major power crunch.

“The reduction in the gas supply has been tremendous… only 10% is being delivered,” Energy and Mines Minister Angelo Alfaro told Congress on Thursday.

The National Chamber of Mining, Oil and Energy (SNMPE) on Friday said its members were working to minimize the impact on the population and are looking to import an LPG shipment in “record time.”

Peru is the world’s second-largest copper producer, making the mining sector a critical pillar of its economy and a major consumer of its domestic energy supply.

Operator Transportadora de Gas del Peru (TGP) shut down a section of the pipeline in the Megantoni district to isolate the leak. The company implemented temporary restrictions on gas supplies to industrial and electricity sector users to prioritize residential and essential services.

The outage forced energy firm Pluspetrol to suspend production of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at its Pisco fractionation plant, which accounts for approximately 70% of Peru’s LPG consumption.

(Reporting by Marco Aquino, Editing by Daina Beth Solomon and David Gregorio)

BAN DEEP SEA MINING

Deep-sea mining debate reaches critical global moment

Cecilia Jamasmie | March 5, 2026 

Stock image by allexxandarx.

Ocean governance is entering a decisive moment as governments weigh whether to allow deep sea mining in international waters or impose a global moratorium while science and regulations catch up.

The debate is intensifying ahead of a key meeting of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), the UN-established body that manages mineral-related activities in the deep sea. Governments will gather in Kingston, Jamaica, from March 9 to 20 to continue negotiations on a proposed mining code that could open the door to commercial seabed mining.

Experts warn that decisions made in the coming months could determine whether the deep ocean remains protected as humanity’s shared heritage or becomes the next frontier of industrial extraction.

At a media and policy briefing Wednesday, Samantha Robb, a senior associate with Ocean Vision Legal, outlined the legal risks of mining outside the ISA system. She said the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) establishes the ISA as the sole authority to regulate mining in seabed areas beyond national jurisdiction, yet some companies and governments are exploring ways to proceed independently.

Robb pointed to recent developments in the US, where a new domestic regulatory pathway created by President Donald Trump could authorize mining in international waters. Such actions, she said, would conflict with UNCLOS provisions that designate the deep seabed and its resources as the “common heritage of humankind,” meaning activities must benefit all people, including future generations.

Unilateral mining, she warned, would bypass mechanisms designed to ensure equitable distribution of financial benefits and environmental protections. It could also destabilize international governance structures built on multilateral cooperation.

Support for restraint has grown. As of December 2025, about 40 countries back a moratorium on deep-seabed mining, citing environmental uncertainty and governance gaps. Scientific studies have added weight to those concerns, including trials showing steep declines in seabed animal abundance and diversity following disturbance. Several governments have slowed or halted plans, with Norway pausing its deep-sea mining ambitions amid domestic and international opposition.

David Willima, the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition’s Africa regional lead, said the deep-sea mining debate also intersects with the new High Seas Treaty, formally known as the BBNJ Agreement on biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction. 

The treaty entered into force on Jan. 17 and aims to strengthen conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in international waters.

Allowing deep sea mining now, Willima said, could undermine the treaty before it is fully implemented. The agreement emphasizes precaution, biodiversity protection and equitable benefit sharing, particularly for developing countries.

“Mining could threaten fragile ecosystems, disrupt food webs and damage habitats that hold valuable marine genetic resources,” he said.

Scientists believe these resources could lead to medical and scientific breakthroughs, yet many of the ecosystems that contain them overlap with areas targeted for mineral extraction, including hydrothermal vents and seamounts, Willima noted.

He also highlighted concerns from African countries about potential economic and environmental impacts. An influx of seabed minerals could oversupply global markets and destabilize terrestrial mining sectors that many developing economies depend on.

Key issues unresolved

Emma Wilson, policy lead at the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition, said the ISA faces growing pressure to finalize its mining regulations even though the proposed mining code remains incomplete.

Dozens of key issues remain unresolved, including environmental protections, benefit-sharing rules and the rights of Indigenous peoples, she said.

Wilson also raised concerns about the ISA secretariat advocating rapid adoption of the mining code in response to unilateral mining threats. Accelerating the process, she said, risks weakening governance rather than strengthening it.

A moratorium would not halt negotiations or scientific research, Wilson said, but would give governments time to resolve legal and technical questions while insulating the process from industry pressure.

She added that ISA member states can also limit unilateral mining efforts by denying access to global investment, partnerships and markets for companies attempting to bypass the international regime.

Increased interest

Interest in deep-sea mining has grown over the past two years. Some companies, including US defence giant Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), have resumed Pacific seabed mining plans through a UK subsidiary, despite ongoing regulatory uncertainty.

Deep Sea Minerals Corp. (CSE: SEAS) (FRA: X45), joined last month the US Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC), a Department of War-backed consortium that connects government, private industry, and academia under a flexible contracting framework to rapidly develop and deliver advanced technologies and strengthen the US defence industrial base.  

The company also announced this week that it is on track to proceed with its license application in accordance with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) regulatory requirements. 

California-based Impossible Metals has already applied for exploration rights both under US law and through the ISA, targeting the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific, which holds nodules rich in copper, nickel, manganese and other metals vital for electric vehicles. 

Canada’s The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMCWW) filed for a commercial permit almost a year ago and secured an $85.2 million investment from South Korea’s Korea Zinc in June.The deal positioned Korea Zinc as a non-Chinese alternative capable of refining TMC’s extracted materials into battery-grade metals.

Beyond mining: Oklahoma bets on refining to anchor US critical minerals supply chain

Amanda Stutt | March 6, 2026 | 

AI-generated stock image by KarpenArt Studio.

As the United States races to secure supplies of critical minerals, much of the policy discussion has focused on opening new mines. But industry leaders say the bigger bottleneck lies further down the value chain: refining, processing and manufacturing.

In Oklahoma, state officials believe they have found an opportunity in that gap.

Rather than positioning itself as a mining jurisdiction, the state is building a strategy around processing critical minerals into usable industrial materials — aluminum, rare earth magnets and batteries essential to aerospace, defense and advanced manufacturing. 

A series of early-stage proposed investments and federal funding programs are now converging around that vision.

The goal is to plug Oklahoma into the middle of the domestic supply chain as the United States works to reduce dependence on overseas processing from China.

“Here in Oklahoma we’re not actually doing the mining of these minerals,” Jay Shidler, Advanced Technology Project Manager at the Oklahoma Department of Commerce told MINING.com in an interview. “It’s around the refining and the production side — being part of the supply chain that turns these materials into finished products.”

“One of the things we’re really focused on is strengthening domestic supply chains and not being dependent on other countries for these materials,” Shidler said. 

The “missing middle” of the supply chain

For decades, the US gradually ceded much of the world’s mineral processing capacity to other countries. China built a dominant position refining rare earths and producing permanent magnets, key components used in everything from electric vehicles to defense systems.

As geopolitical tensions have grown and supply chain vulnerabilities have become more apparent, Washington has shifted its attention toward rebuilding domestic capacity.

Federal incentives, including funding tied to the CHIPS and Science Act and other industrial policy initiatives, have begun encouraging companies to establish processing and manufacturing facilities inside the US.

Industry analysts increasingly describe this stage of the value chain as the “missing middle” — the industrial infrastructure that connects raw materials to finished products.

Oklahoma’s pitch to investors centers on filling that gap.

The state’s strategy emphasizes refining, magnet manufacturing, recycling and smelting rather than primary mineral extraction. 

Shidler said the approach aligns with broader national priorities around onshoring supply chains and supporting defense manufacturing.

A $4 billion aluminum bet

The most prominent project tied to Oklahoma’s emerging strategy is a proposed aluminum smelter from Emirates Global Aluminium.

The company announced plans to invest roughly $4 billion in a facility near Tulsa at the Port of Inola, a logistics hub that offers barge access for bulk materials moving through the U.S. inland waterway system.

Construction has been forecast to begin as early as 2026.

If completed, the plant would represent one of the largest aluminum investments in the US in decades.

Aluminum remains a critical industrial metal for aerospace, defense and transportation applications. However, the number of operating U.S. smelters has declined significantly over the past several decades due to high energy costs and global competition.

Power and location advantages

In Oklahoma, the combination of wind generation and natural gas resources gives the state a structural advantage, Shidler said. 

The State produces roughly 65% more energy than it consumes, according to state figures, with a significant portion of that supply coming from wind power. It’s also a major producer of natural gas.

Those energy resources translate into relatively low electricity costs — a critical consideration for aluminum smelting and other heavy industrial processes.

Location also plays a role in the state’s pitch.

The Port of Inola, where the proposed EGA smelter would be located, is often described as the furthest inland ice-free port in the United States. Through the McClellan–Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System, the port connects to the Mississippi River and eventually the Gulf of Mexico, allowing raw materials to move inland by barge.

Combined with Oklahoma’s central location in the United States, the infrastructure allows materials to move relatively efficiently to manufacturing hubs across the country.

Rare earth magnets and national security

Another pillar of Oklahoma’s critical minerals strategy involves rare earth magnets — a technology that has become increasingly important for defense systems and advanced manufacturing.

USA Rare Earth is developing a vertically integrated rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in the State. The company is building a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater,  a project that has received roughly $1.6 billion in funding from the Department of Commerce and from the private sector.

Permanent magnets made from rare earth elements such as neodymium and praseodymium are essential components in electric motors, precision guidance systems, wind turbines and a range of other technologies.

Yet global magnet production remains heavily concentrated in China.

The United States currently has limited domestic capacity to manufacture these magnets at scale, making them a key focus of industrial policy efforts.

Building that capability inside the country is seen as an important step toward securing supply chains for both civilian industries and defense systems. 

Stardust Power (NASDAQ: SDST)  in February joined the Cornerstone Consortium to Support U.S. Critical Minerals and Industrial Base Resilience. 

Stardust is advancing development of its lithium refinery in Muskogee,  with major engineering work completed and key permits secured, Stardust Managing Director, Oklahoma, John Riesenberg told MINING.com. 

The project has secured a major offtake agreement with Sumitomo, and established multiple feedstock supply partnerships, Riesenberg said, adding that construction is expected to lead to commercial production roughly 24 months after initial construction begins. 

said they are actively working to attract companies across the supply chain — from refining and recycling to component manufacturing.

Defense and aerospace demand

Another reason Oklahoma believes it can sustain such a cluster lies in its existing aerospace and defense industries,  Oklahoma Department of Commerce officials said. 

Aerospace and defense is already the state’s second-largest and fastest-growing industrial sector. Oklahoma hosts five military installations, including Tinker Air Force Base near Oklahoma City.

Tinker is widely considered the largest maintenance, repair and overhaul facility in the world, supporting aircraft and equipment used by the U.S. military.

The broader context for Oklahoma’s efforts is the evolution of the United States’ critical minerals strategy, Shidler noted. 

Five years ago, much of the discussion centered on restarting domestic mining operations after decades of decline, but that conversation has expanded rapidly. 

Policy makers increasingly recognize that mining alone cannot solve supply chain vulnerabilities. Without refining, processing and manufacturing capacity, raw materials must still be sent overseas to become usable products.

That realization has shifted attention toward building industrial capacity across the entire value chain.

Whether Oklahoma ultimately becomes a major processing hub remains to be seen. But the projects now being proposed suggest that the next phase of America’s critical minerals strategy may be less about digging new mines — and more about rebuilding the industrial infrastructure needed to turn those minerals into finished materials.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

DOJ probes US fertilizer market for possible price fixing

Bloomberg News | March 4, 2026 | 

The Justice Department has been investigating whether several leading producers of commercial fertilizers colluded to raise prices, according to people familiar with the matter.

The companies whose conduct is under scrutiny include phosphate and potash suppliers Nutrien Ltd. and Mosaic Co., as well as CF Industries Holdings Inc., Koch Inc. and Norway’s Yara International ASA, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing a confidential investigation. CF Industries, Koch, Yara and Nutrien control most of the nitrogen-based fertilizer sold in the US.

The probe is examining companies’ pricing practices for possible civil and criminal antitrust violations, the people said. The investigation is in the early stages and is being run out of the DOJ antitrust division’s Chicago office, they said.

Only a handful of companies control the supply of most fertilizer in the US, which has raised concern among farmers and government officials. The Biden administration also expressed concerns about high fertilizer prices due to market concentration and the impact of the war in Ukraine.

The companies haven’t been accused of wrongdoing by antitrust officials, and investigations don’t necessarily lead to charges or lawsuits.

Nutrien didn’t have an immediate comment. The other companies and the Justice Department didn’t respond to requests for comment. A US Department of Agriculture spokesperson referred to DOJ for comment.

Mosaic shares fell as much as 4.3% to the lowest price since mid-January. CF Industries dropped as much as 5.5%, the most since November, while Nutrien shares were down as much as 2.9%.

Key priority

The investigation reflects a key priority of both political parties to police conduct that increases costs for farmers and consumers. Addressing high food costs has been a goal of the Trump administration’s response to Americans’ growing dissatisfaction on the rising cost of living, which propelled Democrats to victories over Republicans in several key elections in November.

Potash and phosphate fertilizer prices have eased since last fall after spiking as a result of President Donald Trump’s trade war. Still, prices remain historically elevated, and the escalating conflict in the Middle East is reigniting worries about reliance on foreign fertilizers. Disruptions in the Gulf are already pushing prices higher for urea, a form of nitrogen fertilizer widely used for corn and other crops. The higher fertilizer costs have put a strain on US farmers struggling with low crop prices and shrinking markets.

Nutrien and Mosaic control about 90% of the production capacity of both potash and phosphate fertilizers, according to agriculture industry watchdog Farm Action. Nutrien, CF Industries, Koch and Yara control about 82% of nitrogen-based fertilizers, Farm Action says.

Meanwhile, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden has accused Nutrien and Mosaic of colluding to limit US fertilizer supply and control prices. In January public comments to the National Agricultural Law Center, Vaden called the two companies a “duopoly” and said the administration will “do everything it can” to ensure affordable fertilizer prices for farmers.

Joint venture

Vaden cited a Canadian joint venture between Mosaic and Nutrien, Canpotex Ltd., as an example of how the companies “collude to control prices up there.” While such a venture doesn’t exist in the US, Vaden said the companies have constrained supply, “driving up the price that farmers pay.”

Vaden didn’t mention the antitrust probe and it’s unclear if the dynamics he referenced are part of the Justice Department’s investigation.

While the first Trump and Biden administrations increased antitrust enforcement in the tech sector, the agriculture industry has seen less action, despite a rise in concentration.

That has left just four companies in control of more than half of all beef, poultry and pork processed in the US, while a different quartet of firms controls majorities of soybean and corn seeds, according to Farm Action.

The Trump administration has made a series of moves to boost competition in the sector. In September, the Justice Department and Agriculture Department signed an agreement to police competition in agriculture markets. About a month later, Trump ordered a federal investigation into the meatpacking industry, blaming “majority foreign-owned” companies for soaring beef prices.

In December, Trump issued a directive for the DOJ and the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the US food supply chain for potential price fixing and other anti-competitive behavior that drives up costs of goods such as meat, seeds and fertilizer.

The Justice Department is also investigating pricing practices among the largest US egg suppliers.

Executive order

Trump in February signed an executive order to protect domestic supplies of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides, noting that there is only one domestic producer of both materials.

Mosaic is the top US fertilizer producer and makes almost half of the phosphate-based crop nutrients used by US farmers. The company in 2023 asked the Commerce Department to investigate phosphate fertilizers from Morocco, which led to added duties on those imports that are still currently in place.

Early in February, corn farmer groups in Iowa and Texas both pressed Attorney General Pam Bondi for an update on the DOJ’s work in the fertilizer market.

“The current state of the farm economy is dire,” Hagen Hunt, president of the Texas Corn Producers Association, wrote in a letter to Bondi. “While the prices farmers receive for their crops has softened, the costs of the essential nutrients needed to grow them remain artificially inflated.”

(By Josh Sisco and Ilena Peng)

LME fines PAC Global Services Spain for warehouse violations

Reuters | March 4, 2026 | 

The London Metal Exchange fined warehouse operator PAC Global Services Spain (PGS) 250,000 pounds ($334,175) in a disciplinary action due to breaches of its rules, the LME said on Wednesday.

The exchange, the world’s oldest and largest market for industrial metals, listed eight violations of its warehouse agreement by PGS in a members’ notice.

The most serious violation was found during an investigation of a PGS warehouse in Taiwan, where it found copper stored in an open yard outside the facility.

“The storage of metal on warrant outside of an LME approved shed is an egregious breach of the warehouse agreement … and as such the financial penalty reflects this,” the notice said.

PGS runs 39 LME-registered warehouses in Europe and Asia, according to the LME website.

The LME is owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd.

($1 = 0.7481 pounds)

(By Eric Onstad; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Mark Potter)

 

RANKED: Top 20 automakers by battery metals spending

Frik Els | March 5, 2026 | 

Volkswagen plant in the 1960’s. (Image courtesy of Roger W. |Flickr Commons.)

The global passenger EV market, including plug-in and conventional hybrids, fell short of 30 million units last year, but still showed robust growth of 18% year over year.  In combined battery capacity deployed – a better indicator of battery materials demand than unit sales alone – the electric car market expanded by 22%. 

According to data from Toronto-based EV supply chain advisory Adamas Intelligence, 2025 was the first calendar year battery capacity deployment topped 1 TWh. To put that in perspective, for calendar 2021, the total was 286 GWh, meaning the global market measured in GWh has nearly quadrupled in just four years and is ten times larger than in 2019 –  powering through the pandemic. 

Turnaround 

The EV Metal Index pairs metals demand with prices in the EV battery supply chain. That paints a very different picture of the battery metals market and shows just how deep the slump of the last few years has been for raw material suppliers to the industry. 

But even by this measure, the outlook has become much brighter. The raw material bill for the contained lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt and manganese in the batteries of EV sold over the course of  2025 climbed to $15.6 billion, an 11% gain over the year before.  

If $15.6 billion sounds modest, the installed tonnage does not take into account any losses during processing, chemical conversion or battery production scrap (where yield losses often go well into double digit percentages and at much higher rates during startup) so required tonnes and revenues are meaningfully higher at supply chain entry points.

Granted, that’s still almost half of the extraordinary level reached in 2022, but 2026 is already shaping up to be another year of strong growth as rising lithium and nickel prices continue to work through the supply chain and cobalt prices stay on the boil.

The right chemistry

While lithium and graphite represents a relative constant in the EV industry, the demand for nickel and cobalt have been impacted by ongoing thrifting of the latter by automakers in NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) and NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum) batteries and both by ever faster adoption of LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate) cathode chemistries. 

In 2025 LFP packs accounted for nearly half of the total in battery capacity deployed terms, despite a limited presence outside China (where it now commands 70% and growing share of the market). 

Some of the negative effects of LFP’s intrusion in markets in North America and Europe are being blunted by a parallel trend towards higher nickel content NCM batteries (60%-plus nickel content and more often 80% and above) which remains the go-to chemistry outside China.

  

Volkswagen picks up speed

Drilling down from the overall figure shows vast differences between automakers in terms of battery metals usage and costs.  

Despite selling nearly 500,00 more full electric vehicles last year than Tesla (and 2.2 plug-in hybrids), BYD’s bill of materials was $710 million below that of its Texas-based rival. BYD’s in-house manufactured batteries cost the Chinese company  $1.1 billion in 2025, about the same as in 2024 despite selling 230,000 more BEVs and PHEVs than the year before. 

BYD’s all lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery-powered model line-up concentrated at the lower end of the market and a sales mix that is now majority plug-in hybrids kept sales-weighted average material costs per EV to just $247 versus $1,082 for every Tesla model sold. 

Even when considering only fully electric vehicles, BYD’s spending on raw materials is way below the average at $366 per BEV. LFP-powered Models 3 and Y manufactured in China are a big part of Tesla’s sales but the slow buildout of LFP cell factories outside China means these nickel cobalt and manganese free powerpacks are largely absent from Western automakers’ lineups.

The comparable number for the Volkswagen stable which includes Audi, Porsche, Skoda and others –  is $1,624 per BEV. EV sales by  Volkswagen – for the first time the world’s biggest spender on battery metals – is split 70:30 for BEV:PHEV which accounts for some of its high-spending but the bulk of Wolfsburg’s budget went to battery nickel and cobalt.  Volkswagen’s Powerco has commissioned an LFP battery plant in Germany and is building one in Spain targeting production some time next year.

Generally expensive 

From Volkswagen, there’s another big step up to General Motors which has to contend with an average battery metals bill of a hefty $1,664 even after a rise of 17.6% year on year thanks to increasing use of nickel, cobalt and manganese prices and a 20 rise in EV shipments thanks the popular Equinox SUV and Silverado pickup. 

On a GWh basis, 85% of GM’s batteries came from its venture with LG Energy Solution called Ultium. GM is overhauling this strategy after poaching a Tesla battery executive in 2024 and is moving away from its heavy and beefy one-size-fits-all packs. GM has been going in a different direction with the adoption of NCMA batteries, but the cost savings associated with LFP is just too compelling and the company is now retrofitting its Tennessee NCMA plant to produce LFP  batteries.

On the other side of the spectrum is Toyota, which spent on average just $185 per EV sold in 2025 for a total of $830 million, up 7.2% year on year. That’s because of the Japanese giant’s focus on conventional hybrids or HEVs where battery capacity rarely exceeds 2kWh. 

Last year nine out of every ten Toyota (including Lexus) electrified vehicles sold were HEVs fitted with mostly nickel-metal-hydride batteries which also shows that the old-school Prius and its ilk are still a meaningful source of battery nickel demand (with a good dose of rare earths thrown in). 

For a fuller analysis of the battery metals market check out the latest issue of The Northern Miner print and digital editions.

* Frik Els is Editor at Large for MINING.COM and Head of Adamas Inside, providing news and analysis based on Adamas Intelligence data.