Thursday, May 07, 2026

Anticolonial fraud: The Kremlin in Africa

Panel beim zweiten Russland-Afrika-Forum in Sankt Petersburg, 27.7.2023, Foto: picture alliance / Russian Look | Maksim Konstantinov

First published at Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung.

Among the many concepts coined by the Cold War, campism remains strikingly relevant in today’s increasingly polarized world. It frames global politics as a division between two camps: the imperialist West, seen as the primary source of global exploitation and instability, and its supposed anti-imperialist opponents. The term describes a tendency to support any force opposing Western imperialism and its allies — regardless of how reactionary, exploitative, or even imperialist those forces may be.

In the case of Russia, the resurgence of this mindset became especially visible after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As Moscow launched its assault on an independent country and proceeded to systematically commit colonial crimes both on the front lines and in occupied territories, some observers have chosen to overlook these atrocities, arguing instead that NATO’s expansion left the Kremlin with no alternative.

Amid the Kremlin’s growing suppression of indigenous peoples’ rights within Russia and the intensifying persecution of opposition voices — including those on the left — campist logic separates geopolitics from internal social relations. In contemporary Russia, however, this divide is even more pronounced. Despite its claims to speak on behalf of the Global South, Moscow extends its imperial ambitions far beyond its borders, reaching not only into neighbouring independent states such as Ukraine and Georgia but further afield.

In its quest for an anti-imperialist image, Russia increasingly targets African countries, which continue to be shaped by competition among global and regional powers. An alliance with an anti-Western Moscow is often framed as a path toward resisting the expansionist ambitions of former colonial powers, as well as securing stability and economic growth. Yet the reality of Russian involvement in Africa indicates something else: anticolonial rhetoric alone is insufficient to justify campism — or to deliver genuine liberation.

Cold War histories

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union, driven by its rivalry with the capitalist bloc, played a notable role in decolonization movements across many African countries. It provided key resources for liberation struggles: weapons, economic support, and ideology. At the same time, tens of thousands of students from across Africa received education in the USSR and other Eastern Bloc countries, further strengthening the appeal and influence of the Soviet project.

After the collapse of the USSR, Moscow’s presence in Africa declined sharply as the new Russian state faced internal crises. From the mid-2000s into the 2010s, the Kremlin gradually began to rebuild ties with previous partners on the continent. Its return to Africa, however, became a prominent part of public discourse in 2019, when Russia hosted its first Russia–Africa Forum in Sochi. There, President Vladimir Putin declared the opening of a “new page” in Russian–African relations. Western media captured the moment with headlines such as “Putin just took a victory lap in the Middle East. Now he’s turning to Africa” and “The Russia-Africa summit, Moscow’s show of ambition in the region”. Amid growing isolation in the Global North and a desire to be perceived as a real superpower, the Kremlin began actively promoting its influence in the Global South, particularly in Africa.

Conventional hard-power tools

Since 2019, the scope of Russia's cooperation with African countries has noticeably expanded: Moscow has deepened its relations with historical partners and expanded its network among the new regimes facing regional and international isolation, as well as non-aligned regimes seeking to diversify their partnerships.

Economically speaking, Moscow’s presence in Africa remains limited — Russia simply does not have the capital to compete with other regional actors. While Russian media praised the historical maximum of the total trade value between Moscow and African countries which constituted almost $28 billion in 2025, for China and the EU this index exceeds $300 billion, while that of the U.S.UAE and India were over $100 billion each. But Russia has managed to carve out an economic niche for itself by exporting nuclear energy projects. As the demand for energy is growing along with the region’s population, Moscow is offering its own expertise, education for future personnel, and the nuclear fuel to run these long-term projects.

Another dimension of Russia’s strategic economic influence in the region concerns food security. In 2025, Agroexport, the Russian agency for agricultural exports, claimed that Moscow had become Africa’s largest grain supplier, accounting for a third of the continent’s wheat market. In total, Russia exports grain to around 40 African countries, with demand from Algeria, Libya, Kenya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Tanzania increasing significantly in recent years. Against the backdrop of disrupted supply chains and rising prices — driven in part by Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well as climate shocks and the lingering effects of the pandemic — some African governments have accused the Kremlin of exploiting this dependency for political leverage.

However, the backbone of Russia’s presence in the region is arms exports. In January Rosoboronexport — Russia’s agency for military sales — claimed that its exports to African countries reached the scale of the Cold War times, when the Soviet Union was responsible for 40% of supplies to the continent. One cannot be certain if this reflects the reality or rather wishful thinking by the Kremlin, given the limitations in Russia’s military exports capacities amid its war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Moscow remains the critical actor on the continent’s arms market. According to SIPRI, in 2020–2024, Russia accounted for 21% of African imports of major arms, putting it ahead of China (18%) and the U.S. (16%).

‘Military presence with a human face’

In addition to conventional arms exports, for years, Russia has supplied its African partners with the services of the private military company (PMC) Wagner. The so-called ‘Wagner Group’ has now been formally absorbed by the Russian Defense Ministry and rebranded as Africa Corps (perhaps a reference to the German “Afrikakorps” in World War 2), following the PMC’s founder’s, Evgeny Prigozhin, death in 2023.

A package deal from the Russian “military instructors” — the vague mercenary job description — includes not only the security services, but also political consulting on topics such as disinformation campaigns and staged protests, as well as the management of lucrative and extractivist contracts in an array of industries from gold and other minerals to lumber.

Case in point is the Central African Republic (CAR): its president Faustin-Archange Touadéra was the first African leader to openly welcome the Russian PMC as far back as 2018. Formally, the CAR leader invited “Russian instructors” to support the national army in its fight against local rebels. In reality, they became the guarantor of Touadéra’s own hold on power. For instance, they supported the 2023 constitutional referendum, the results of which allowed the president to remain in office without term limitations. Currently the “political advisors” in CAR are promoting a foreign agent law — the Kremlin’s signature repressive mechanism it has employed against its own opponents for 15 years and has exported to the friendly authoritarian regimes in decline. The Russian-backed organizations also conduct aggressive social media campaigns in the CAR, intimidating critics of the regime, with AFP sources suggesting the Russian forces even track the president’s opponents with drones.

In reports from other countries that have experienced Russian military instructors’ presence, civilians have accused them of killings, torture and sexualized violence. Former Wagner Telegram channels are full of evidence of routine executions and desecration of corpses, especially in Mali. This is what Russian propaganda calls “military presence with a human face”.

On top of that, recent reports indicate that young African men who travel to Russia for education or what they believe to be well-paid civilian jobs are instead sent to the front lines in Ukraine. Moscow views them as a source of cheap labour, essential for sustaining its war effort. Often forced to sign contracts in a language they do not understand, thousands of men from at least 36 African countries are used as cannon fodder at the frontline. INPACT investigation identified over 1,400 Africans recruited by Russia, however, additional reports suggest higher numbers. Within months of arrival, over 300 are said to have been killed. Those who survive frequently receive no financial compensation, face racism from their commanders, and struggle to leave. With limited international scrutiny, the Kremlin has effectively built a transnational human trafficking network, a system of exploitation, capitalizing on the economic vulnerabilities of the very people it claims to support in their anti-colonial struggle.

Anticolonialism-washing

Such hybrid operations appear to be the perfect fit for the struggling autocracies among Moscow’s historical partners as well as the young regimes that find themselves limited in their choice of partners. For instance, the Sahelian juntas — the regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — heavily rely on anticolonial sentiments. Needless to say, those sentiments originate from the real grievances of the people against the centuries-long exploitation, with France still conducting years-long military operations in the region until recently. The young regimes appeal to this inequality and unfairness, refuse cooperation with the former metropoles. They commonly end up turning towards Russia.

The Kremlin first takes the opportunity to promote a fitting image. According to the Kremlin-disseminated conspiracy theories, the U.S. runs biological laboratories across the continent and Western companies produce deadly vaccines. The Kremlin appeals to the Global South by promoting BRICS as a project battling the American hegemony. Putin openly condemns the “shameful” history of western colonialism and consistently calls for creation of the Palestinian state.

Various propaganda outlets assist the Kremlin in spreading these narratives: Sputnik Africa, RT, TASS, as well as the recently established news agency African Initiative. Its content is translated into all the major languages spoken on the continent. The staff includes members from the former Wagner PMC network. African Initiative is headed by Artem Kureev. Reports suggest he is an operative of the Fifth Directorate dealing with the foreign affairs of the Russian internal intelligence agency (FSB).

In the countries where Russian influence is already quite strong, propaganda campaigns to shape the public opinion on the ground have been handed over to local organizations and opinion leaders. At the second Russia-Africa forum, the president of Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traoré, praised Moscow’s support of African sovereignty and even compared the modern history of Russia with African countries by calling both “the forgotten peoples of the world”. On a lower-tier, a Russia-affiliated Ivorian NGO called Total Support for Vladimir Putin in Africa (SOTOVPOA) even launched an international prize in his name, honouring what the founder of the NGO called Putin’s “liberating act for Africa.” Furthermore, the African Initiative organizes press tours of the occupied Ukrainian territories, during which bloggers from Sahelian regimes discuss the “reconstructions of new regions” and receive training in conducting information campaigns.

Against campism

As outlined above, Russia’s presence in Africa has little to do with the liberation of local populations and is instead focused on sustaining partner regimes. War crimes, extractivism, and the reinforcement of autocratic rule point to the underlying motives behind the Kremlin’s return to the continent — motives that are not so different from those of other neocolonial powers.

Many questions remain: Is the pretend-anticolonialism, supported by propaganda efforts and disinformation campaigns, convincing anyone? Are the protests depicting crowds with the Russian and Wagner flags staged or is there genuine support for Russia in Africa? Do a majority of people recognize the influence Russia has on their own governments, elections, economies? The generalized sociological data provides limited information: the latest edition of the Afrobarometer study shows significant cross-country variation. In Mali, one of Moscow’s essential newer partners, the positive public perception of Russia’s economic and political influence increased from 56% in 2019–2021 to 88% in 2023–2025. Meanwhile, in Guinea — no stranger to Russia’s business activities — the positive opinion of Russian influence dropped from 63% to 49% in respective years. Simultaneously, an average positive perception of Russia in Africa (36%) is lower than that of China (62%), the U.S. (52%), EU (50%) or India (39%).

The results of the Kremlin’s fight to win hearts and minds on the ground remain inconsistent, although it is clear that some groups are benefiting from its presence. At the same time, Moscow appears to be taking competition of great-powers in the region seriously. This is evident in the growing number of the Kremlin’s soft power institutions (such as Russian Houses), its expanding security presence, and investments in long-term infrastructure projects.

In the global context, the Kremlin’s cynical instrumentalization of anti-colonial narratives — including its claimed efforts to “liberate” African societies — appears to have achieved limited but notable traction among segments of the left. Beyond Kremlin-affiliated propagandists, this position is echoed by anti-intellectualist commentators and online influencers, as well as whole political parties (such as the German DKP), who denounce Western imperialism while overlooking the anti-democratic and reactionary nature of its geopolitical rivals. In this framing, Russia’s activities in Africa are often invoked as evidence to support such views.

This logic is not only deeply Western-centric — within a campist framework, only the West is seen as possessing the agency to commit significant crimes — but also quite dangerous. It undermines progressive struggles against regimes that present themselves as opponents of the West, whether in Russia, Iran or Venezuela. Meanwhile, despite ostensibly belonging to opposing camps, conservative elites in both Russia and the United States alike continue to pursue overlapping interests, by scheming over their own fascist International and shaking hands in Alaska. In the current global system shaped by capital and enforced by states, only genuinely internationalist and anti-colonial movements grounded in solidarity with people across both “camps” offer a viable path toward the liberation of the exploited class.

Sasha Fokina is a journalist and analyst focusing on anti-colonial struggles, wars, and autocracies across the Global South, as well as on feminist and migration issues.

For a global anti-fascist and anti-imperialist front


Farooq Tariq

The International Anti-Imperialist Conference in Lahore, Pakistan, takes place at a very critical time, where Western capitalist centres have upped the imperialist ante in the face of receding global hegemony.

United States President Donald Trump’s second term — with its far-right agenda and foreign policy of recolonisation and war — has brought about a shift in the international situation.

Together with his partner in massacres, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump has waged war on Iran, seeking to ensure complete domination of the oil and gas market. This comes after the genocide in Gaza, the invasion of Venezuela, the attempt to strangle Cuba and threats to annex Greenland.

The tyrant is striving to normalise genocidal language, blackmail and interventionism, as well as racism, misogyny and hatred of migrants, as he attempts to expel millions of workers from the US.

Declining US empire

Imperialism is an essential part of capitalism. But it has also been the most reliable partner of Euro-American powers in times of crisis.

Lagging behind China and other countries in securing hegemony over renewable energy sources, the US empire has fallen back to strengthening its control over traditional oil supplies.

The kidnapping of Venezuelan leaders and the war on Iran are two glaring examples of an empire refusing to innovate amid the climate change crisis and instead taking violent control over developing countries’ resources.

At the same time, US gangsterism cannot be reduced to simply securing control over fossil fuel value chains. Trump’s all-out war against Venezuela, Iran, Palestine, Lebanon and Cuba must be seen in the larger context of a war against the “axis of resistance”, even if these opponents are only anti-imperialist, and not anti-capitalist.

Bloody authoritarianism is the central instrument of imperialism in our time, because it needs to impose its policies of hunger, the proliferation of ecocidal technologies and practices, the excessive power of Big Tech, the dispossession of natural and energy resources, and increased military spending.

US imperialism will embark on a blind march toward ecological disaster if it is not defeated.

Anti-imperialism is not enough

Anti-imperialism directed toward the US is a direct threat to US hegemony over violence, even if it does not pose a threat to global capitalism. That is why we must support Iran and other developing countries resisting imperialist aggression, even if their anti-imperialism is devoid of anti-capitalism.

But this strategy is only good in the short run. In the long run, we must work toward building movements and parties that are anti-imperialist and anti-capitalist.

Anti-imperialism devoid of anti-capitalism is a slippery slope. It can take the form of a theological anti-US state, such as Iran, or a secular state capitalism, as with China.

While resisting US imperialism, we must resist these anti-imperialist caricatures too. This does not mean we stop supporting their fight for sovereignty, even if it comes with localised versions of capitalism. But we must be clear that this can only be a short-term strategy.

We cannot afford to reduce the socialist project to the point where a capitalism with a human or anti-imperialist face becomes acceptable or even desirable. We must not lower the bar that far. We must fight against imperialism and capitalism.

Pakistan

While the world admires the Pakistani state’s role as peacemaker between Iran and the US and Israel, here we have seen the state implementing its neoliberal agenda, bulldozing working-class settlements in Islamabad, right as talks are happening.

This is not an isolated incident but a microcosm of the state’s re-invigorated enthusiasm for dispossessing the urban and rural working masses of their social and ecological cushions, in the name of developmentalism. We want to remind the state that it cannot build its peacemaking diplomatic credentials abroad while being repressive at home.

Pakistan has faced 32 years of military dictatorship and political activists have paid the maximum sacrifices for fighting for genuine democracy and socialism. I personally spent 8 years in exile, was arrested dozens of times and my family faced intimidation. This happened to thousands of others after the military took over. 

One of our main tasks is to regain the civic space that the military took away.

Left unity

We must develop a positive project for progressive, socialist futures. A project that stands against capitalism in its various imperialist, fascist, liberal, theocratic, statist and hybrid forms, under electoral and dictatorial conditions.

Despite internal differences, the left must forge a united front against the right. The global pro-Palestine movement is a good example of progressives from diverse convictions joining hands to fight for a common cause. Similar instances of left forces converging around common causes and developing a ground-up socialism are rampant across the Third World.

Some may question the success of these synergies, but my life-long experience working with movements and parties reveals there are no quick fixes to the imperialist, genocidal machinery we are up against. It is only after we develop a powerful confluence of working masses, farmers and other marginalised classes that we will have a united front to reckon with.

Capitalist governments refuse to recognise that popular mobilisations against them are the result of deep social contradictions. They typically attribute them to the actions of internal or external “agents”. We cannot accept this conspiracy version of history.

Undoubtedly, imperialism and its agencies try to take advantage of struggles, such as that of the Iranian people. But that does not reduce those struggles to an imperialist operation. We must oppose such interventions, while continuing to support those struggles.

Consistent internationalism

Today more than ever, we must practice consistent internationalism: a solidarity without borders, which encompasses struggles by workers and the oppressed, as well as struggles for self-determination across the world, without exceptions.

This is a policy that opposes all forms of imperialism. It does not subordinate the struggle in any country to that of another country. It is a policy that corresponds to the slogan: “Workers of the world, unite!”

For solidarity without borders! For internationalism without exceptions!

This is an edited version of the opening remarks delivered by Farooq Tariq at the International Anti-Imperialist Conference, hosted by Haqooq-e-Khalq Party (HKP) and People's Academy on May 3, in Lahore, Pakistan. Tariq is President of HKP.

Iran and the Western left


Islamic Republic of Iran flag

First published in Turkish at Evrensel. Translation by LINKS International Journal of Socialist Renewal.

As occupations and wars intensify, anti-imperialism has become a key priority for the global left. This has raised questions about how to organise and mobilise a mass anti-imperialist movement.

Within the Western left, particularly socialists in the United States, a certain position is gaining ground that, at first, seems logical but ultimately undermines the left’s cause. This position demands we offer unconditional support to regimes and movements targeted by imperialism, and regard any criticism of them as treason. The latest example is the support given to the Iranian regime, which has killed countless leftists, minorities and women over the years.

Before delving into the subject, one thing must be clear: when it comes to the Global South, any country facing imperialist aggression must be defended. Moreover, in the event of war or occupation, this defence must not be watered down. However, this does not mean turning a blind eye to the nature of the regimes under threat.

The position I was referring to equates anti-imperialism with support for the Iranian regime. It claims any criticism of the regime right now amounts to support for imperialism. Those who support this position employ quite sound arguments.

The most persuasive is that the Western left’s primary responsibility is to curb the belligerence of their own states and that, in any case, we lack the power to influence the Iranian regime. Imperialist aggression will only push the regime towards an even more hardline stance; therefore, defeating imperialism is the best way to support the Iranian people.

This position is not only put forward by groups that opponents label as “campist” — those who take opposition to Western imperialism as their starting point on every global issue. Even some non-campists have used this argument. 

While fundamentally correct, it nevertheless overlooks one crucial point. It is true that the Western left does not have the power to democratise the Iranian regime. But the left’s stance on this issue directly affects the number and type of people we can draw into anti-imperialist organisation and action.

It is common to hear complaints on the left, such as: “Look at how huge the protests were during the Iraq War; compare that to the meagre turnout for anti-war protests today.” It is truly disheartening that protests have not spread through the US, even as President Donald Trump threatens genocide. However, those who claim to be leading the movement should be asking themselves “where are we going wrong?”, rather than blaming the people.

It would be easy to draw up a long list of differences between the current situation and the Iraq invasion, and argue these differences are why anti-imperialist sentiments have declined. However, this war is a continuation of a series of wars, including the one in Iraq.

The left must first be able to explain this continuity. Yet, explaining the broader picture — the retreat of the leading imperialist power and the violence this will inevitably unleash across the globe — and reframing public debate along these lines is a long and arduous path.

It is also a path that requires us to get a hearing among the public. That is why remaining silent during the wave of violence unleashed by the Iranian regime in January, and allowing the monarchists in the diaspora to politically monopolise the response, was a major mistake by the Western left.

Rather than viewing those horrific massacres from the perspective of Iran’s poor, workers, women, minorities and leftists, the Western left approached the situation simply from the point of view of “will this benefit the US?”. This ultimately led into inaction. Taking advantage of this, liberals and conservatives were able to lend credibility to their empty rhetoric, saying things such as: “See, leftists are not bothered by the massacre of people.”

It is not easy to disrupt this tactic, which mainstream voices often use. Given the resources at their disposal, they will always seek to distort events, even if the left takes the right position. Nevertheless, it is essential that revolutionaries and socialists adopt a clear stance against all forms of oppression and injustice, remain consistent with their principles, and bring together all left and progressive forces in a broad united front.

I reiterate: our absolute priority today is defeating imperialism. Uniting all leftists and progressives is crucial for this. There is no point in exaggerating our differences and weakening any anti-imperialism and anti-war united fronts we have built. Nevertheless, it is also evident that we have so far not been very effective in extending this unity beyond established activist circles.

Partido Lakas ng Masa: On the firing of the US missile system on Philippine soil


The MRC was used early Tuesday morning to launch a Tomahawk land attack missile from Tacloban Airport. Bianca Dava, ABS-CBN News

The reported first-ever firing of a Tomahawk missile and operational deployment of the US Typhon system (Mid-Range Capability or MRC) on Philippine soil under Balikatan 2026 mark a dangerous escalation in the country’s deepening entanglement in imperialist military conflicts.

Balikatan 2026 is the largest US-Philippine joint exercise to date, involving about 17,000 troops across air, land, sea, space and cyber domains. Combat forces from Australia, Canada, France, Japan and New Zealand are participating, with 17 more countries present as observers, further internationalising military operations on Philippine soil.

The Typhon system is not a defensive weapon. It is a long-range strike platform capable of launching Tomahawk cruise and SM-6 missiles, with ranges extending far beyond Philippine territory and into neighbouring countries.

Tomahawk missiles have been used in wars marked by widespread civilian casualties and destruction of critical infrastructure, in theaters such as the Middle East, including Iran and Gaza.

The live firing of such a system goes beyond “training”. It signals that Philippine territory is now integrated into US war planning. Under the Ferdinand Marcos Jr regime, the country is increasingly being used as a forward base for US military projection in the Indo-Pacific, particularly amid intensifying rivalry with China.

Reports indicate that the Typhon launch platform is mobile and can be repositioned across Philippine terrain. From Tacloban, where the firing reportedly took place, its range could cover key areas in Luzon and the South China Sea. Deployed further north, it could extend toward the Taiwan Strait, placing the Philippines squarely within potential conflict zones.

These developments undermine national sovereignty and heighten the risk of the Philippines being drawn into a US-China war. By hosting and enabling these systems, the country exposes itself as a potential launch site — and target — in a major power confrontation.

This militarisation diverts attention and resources from the real security needs of the people. The Filipino masses face urgent threats: soaring prices of basic goods and fuel, job insecurity and low wages, climate disasters, and the absence of adequate social protection.

Instead, the government prioritises military dependence on the US. This is a distorted notion of “security” — one that serves geopolitical interests rather than the welfare of the Filipino people.

Partido Lakas ng Masa calls on the Filipino people to:

• Ban the deployment and firing of foreign missile systems on Philippine soil;

• End the use of the Philippines as a staging ground for imperialist war; and

• Assert a truly independent foreign policy based on peace, neutrality and solidarity among peoples.

No to US war preparations on Philippine soil!

Defend national sovereignty!

Fight for a people-centred, peaceful and independent Philippines!

Obliteration Ecocide from Gaza to Lebanon and Beyond

Lebanon accuses Israel of committing ecocide in country since 2023. It is an extension of Israel’s destruction of Gaza – and its obliteration doctrine.



by  | May 7, 2026 | 

Israeli military aggression has “reshaped both the physical and ecological landscape” of southern Lebanon, according to the Lebanese report (which does not consider the impacts of Israel’s latest barrage of attacks this spring).

In her foreword, Lebanon’s minister for the environment Tamara el Zein notes: “The scale and intentionality of the damage to forests, agricultural lands, marine ecosystems, water resources, and atmospheric quality constitute what must be recognized as an act of ecocide, with consequences that extend far beyond immediate destruction.” 

Obliteration ecocide in Lebanon

Released by the country’s National Council for Scientific Research and presented by the environment ministry, the report accuses Israel of “ecocide” during the 2023–2024 war and subsequent escalations. It frames environmental destruction not as incidental “collateral damage” but as systematic transformation of ecosystems.

Key findings are damning. They include:

  • 5,000 hectares of forest destroyed
  • Massive agricultural losses ($118m direct infrastructure damage; much larger indirect losses)
  • Soil contamination (including high phosphorus levels)
  • Air pollution from repeated strike cycles
  • Destruction of orchards and irrigation systems

Minister el Zein characterizes this as “intentional ecological destruction” affecting food systems, public health, and long-term viability of southern Lebanon’s rural economy.

International reporting on the same dossier highlights an estimated total damage burden of over $25 billion when recovery costs and economic losses are included. The figure is a combined total from the assessments by the Lebanese report and the World Bank Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) 2025.

This framing aligns with a growing legal discourse around “ecocide” as a potential international crime, particularly where environmental damage is widespread, long-term, and strategically embedded in military operations.

It is also aligned with UN reporting on the broader Israel–Lebanon escalation confirming extensive infrastructure destruction, civilian displacement, and strikes affecting residential areas.

As the ecocide of Gaza has gone effectively unpunished by the international community, the Netanyahu government is extending the environmental devastation into Lebanon and the proximate region. 

Obliteration doctrine in Gaza

In The Obliteration Doctrine (2025)related commentaries and excerpts, I define this doctrine as the lethal mix of scorched earth policy, collective punishment and civilian victimization, coupled with massive indiscriminate bombardment and systematic use of artificial intelligence (AI).

The concept is vital because it connects the dots between military strategies, aerial bombardment, lethal deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) and international law, particularly the Geneva Conventions and the Genocide Convention. As Professor William Schabas, a leading scholar of genocide, notes, “the Obliteration Doctrine” “adds a new term to the lexicon on genocide, notably in the application of international law and its judicial mechanisms.”

Modern warfare in Gaza is no longer just counterinsurgency but systems-level destruction of the environmental and infrastructural substrate of life – water, soil, agriculture, energy, and urban continuity.

This interpretation overlaps with empirical reporting on Gaza’s environmental collapse:

  • Satellite analysis shows 38–48% of tree cover and farmland destroyed
  • Severe contamination of soil and groundwater
  • Large-scale destruction of greenhouses and irrigation systems
  • Air pollution from sustained bombardment and debris burning

These patterns are described in independent investigations as producing conditions of near-uninhabitability in many parts of Gaza.

Warfare is no longer bounded by battlefield geography. It becomes the restructuring – or “obliteration” – of ecological systems that sustain civilian life.

Ecocide here is not merely destruction of nature, but destruction of life-support systems as purposeful strategy. It is another word for cultural genocide. 

Lebanon and the Gaza template

The Lebanese report and international commentary suggest strong structural parallels between Gaza and southern Lebanon operations:

  • Destruction of orchards, especially olive groves (long-lived economic ecosystems)
  • Targeting of water infrastructure and rural supply systems
  • Repeated airstrikes generating soil and atmospheric contamination
  • Displacement of civilian populations from ecological productive zones, which can be seen as a form of ethnic cleansing

International media reports that Israel is applying a “Gaza playbook” in Lebanon: expulsion orders, infrastructure targeting, and village-level destruction patterns.

Lebanon is now an adjacent theatre where similar operational logics are extended across a different ecological terrain:

  • Gaza: dense urban-agricultural mosaic under blockade conditions
  • Southern Lebanon: dispersed agro-ecological rural system with forested and orchard economies

In both cases, ecological assets are not collateral but structurally embedded in livelihood and resistance capacity – and that makes them strategic targets under the high-intensity obliteration doctrine. 

Consequences beyond Lebanon (and for Israel)

The environmental consequences of such conflict patterns are not geographically contained. Three spillover trajectories are particularly important.

First of all, regional ecological degradation. Soil contamination, wildfire damage, and agricultural collapse are not confined to strike zones. Windborne particulates, water contamination, and long-term soil chemistry changes affect broader cross-border ecosystems.

Second, economic fragility and food-system insecurity. Both Lebanon and Israel depend on regional agricultural stability and water systems. Repeated infrastructure destruction increases food import dependence, rural depopulation and long-term land degradation in border zones.

Third, internal Israeli environmental vulnerability. A less discussed but critical dimension is the simple reality that prolonged warfare conditions can feed back into Israel’s own ecological systems vis-à-vis air quality deterioration from sustained military operations, water system strain under security infrastructure expansion, fire ecology disruption in northern regions. long-term land-use militarization effects.

In this sense, “obliteration” generates mutual ecological degradation across interconnected landscapes. It is an ecological version of MAD – mutually assured destruction. 

Diffusion of doctrine

The key concern is not just localized destruction but doctrinal diffusion. Methods of high-intensity ecological disruption normalize across theaters. And let’s keep in mind that the first test of the obliteration doctrine occurred in Dahiya, the predominantly Shia enclave of Beirut.

US military legacy in Iraq and Syria already includes extensive infrastructure and ecosystem disruption under counterinsurgency and airpower doctrines. These feature water system destruction in Iraq, oil field fires and atmospheric contamination, and urban siege warfare effects in Raqqa and Mosul via coalition partners.

Such precedents create a shared operational vocabulary where environmental damage is treated as secondary to strategic objectives.

In a potential Israel–Iran escalation scenario, ecological infrastructure becomes strategically central through water scarcity systems in Iran’s arid regions, oil and petrochemical infrastructure vulnerability, and agricultural basins dependent on irrigation networks.

Under the obliteration logic, these become dual-use environments – civilian life-support systems that also acquire military significance.

Finally, there is the regional systemic risk. This implies a shift from territorial warfare to ecosystem-targeted coercion, where water, soil, energy, and agriculture become primary pressure points. Meanwhile, environmental degradation is exploited as a form of strategic leverage and recovery cycles extend beyond political timelines into generational horizons. 

From battlefield to biosphere as target

The Lebanese charges, Gaza environmental destruction data, and the doctrine of obliteration converge on a structural transformation in modern conflict.

The object of war is increasingly not just territory or armed forces, but the ecological infrastructure that makes civilian life possible. In this way, destruction of that infrastructure is a prelude to ethnic cleansing and displacement.

For military doctrines, this may be framed as incidental or operational necessity. But for Lebanon and environmental analysts, this constitutes potential ecocide under international law. In view of the obliteration doctrine, it represents a systemic shift in the practice of warfare itself – from the battlefield to biosphere as target.

What happens in Gaza won’t stay in Gaza. What happens in Lebanon won’t stay in Lebanon. The stage is being set for obliteration ecocides wherever they are seen as effective necessities.

Ecological systems are now central to both the conduct and consequences of war.

The original commentary was published by Informed Comment (US) on April 30, 2026


Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized visionary of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net