Sunday, April 05, 2020

Coronavirus: China’s unemployment crisis mounts, but nobody knows true number of jobless

As many as 205 million Chinese workers cannot find jobs or are unable to return to their previous posts, according to one analyst

Debate over China’s unemployment reality amid coronavirus heats up, with holes picked in official government statistics


UNEMPLOYMENT IS THE FINAL NAIL IN THE COFFIN OF THE MYTH OF THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA BEING SOCIALIST OR COMMUNIST IN ANYTHING BUT NAME, IT IS A NATIONALIST PROTECTIONIST STATE CAPITALIST ECONOMY

Frank Tang in Beijing 3 Apr, 2020

Now a debate is raging in China, as statisticians crunch their own numbers, trying to put a figure on how many people in China have lost their jobs due to the lockdown and the stop-start recovery effort. Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Yu Zhixiang received his redundancy notice in early-March, while he was on sick leave, weeks after the coronavirus outbreak forced Chinese economy to come to a standstill.

The 47-year-old had worked as a contract translator on Beijing’s Financial Street, home to many of China’s largest banks and the nation’s central bank. He was one of millions, maybe even tens of millions, of Chinese people who lost their jobs during the outbreak, but who were not immediately reflected in national unemployment data.

In the United States, data on the number of Americans filing their first claim for unemployment benefits each week offers a relatively up-to-date reading of the national jobless situation. But in China, jobless indicators are released on a monthly or even quarterly basis, and cover only part of the workforce.
The most widely cited figure, the surveyed urban unemployment rate issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), jumped to an all-time high of 6.2 per cent in January and February combined, up from 5.2 per cent in December. This roughly equated to an additional 5 million people thrown out of work.

The indicator, however, almost certainly underestimates the real jobless picture in the world’s second largest economy, since it excludes the many migrant workers who lost their jobs or could not return to work because of the travel restrictions put in place to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Now a debate is raging in China, as statisticians crunch their own numbers, trying to put a figure on how many people in China have lost their jobs due to the lockdown and the stop-start recovery effort.

Liu Chenjie, chief economist at fund manager Upright Asset, wrote in an article this week that the pandemic may have pushed 205 million workers into “frictional unemployment”, where they want to work but cannot or are unable to go back to work.

If true, that figure would represent more than a quarter of China’s 775 million workforce and would be vastly higher than the 6.2 per cent figure posited by the government’s survey.

It is not a like-for-like comparison, but Liu’s calculations emphasise the limitations of the official data, which only cover the urban workforce, of 442 million, but exclude the
290 million migrant workers often more vulnerable to economic fluctuations.

In addition, China’s monthly survey is conducted using a small sample base of about 120,000 households, only 0.03 per cent of the nation’s urban workforce.

At 6.2 per cent, the official jobless survey of urban workers would mean 27.4 million people are out of work, according to South China Morning Post calculations, compared to Liu’s 205 million nationwide figure.


The article, published by Caixin magazine, said that in the first two months of the year about 5 million jobs were cut at large industrial enterprises, those with annual revenue over 20 million yuan (US$2.8 million). Another 20 million job losses took place in small industrial firms, Liu wrote.

Coronavirus: Chinese companies cut salaries and staff in industries hit hardest by Covid-19
But the bulk of job losses in China took place in China’s service sector, where employment conditions are highly dependent on consumers’ willingness and ability to spend, which has been sharply curtailed by the pandemic.

In total, about 180 million service sector jobs disappeared due to the coronavirus outbreak, Liu calculated, based on a series of government statistics.

“Employment in industrial production and services may improve as the Chinese economy gradually returns to normal,” Liu wrote. But the speed and degree of improvement could be hindered by the spread of Covid-19 across the globe, he warned.

Another government metric, the urban registered jobless rate, is published quarterly and measures only the urban residents willing to file tedious reams of paperwork to register as being unemployed. This indicator has been stable at a rate of around 4 per cent for years, with few fluctuations over economic cycles.

Due to the lack of official data covering China’s entire workforce, economists and analysts have started to rely on private surveys, online job listings, anecdotal reports and even indicators such as subway rides in major cities to get a clearer view of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the unemployment situation in China.

It is not yet certain if these workers have lost their jobs, but the uncertainty over their job situations has become apparent
Hao Hong, Bocom International

Hao Hong, the head of research at Bocom International in Hong Kong, wrote in a research note last week that up to one-third of Chinese workers have not gone back to work, even though many have returned to the area where their job is located, partly based on urban subway ride statistics.

“It is not yet certain if these workers have lost their jobs, but the uncertainty over their job situations has become apparent,” Hong wrote, warning that the job losses could be more severe in China’s smaller cities, because they have generally fewer employment opportunities.

A visit by the Post to Dongguan, a manufacturing hub in the Pearl River Delta, found many factories cutting jobs and recruitment, as export orders have begun to vanish. Many of China’s 180 million export-oriented jobs will be at risk if global consumer demand continues to shrink as the pandemic spreads.

It is too early to say how many of those who were temporarily unemployed in February or March will suffer from extended unemployment. But it is clear that China is facing its largest unemployment challenge since the ruling Communist Party recognised that “unemployment” did, in fact, exist in the early-1990s. Before that, Beijing considered unemployment a product of capitalism.

Unlike two previous rounds of mass unemployment, when China laid-off tens of millions of state-owned factory workers in the late-1990s as it restructured its economy, or when the global financial crisis in 2008 left 20 million migrant workers out of work, the coronavirus shock is hurting employment across almost all sectors in the economy.


The few exceptions, such as online shopping and live streaming industries, have prospered as people have been forced to stay at home.

As the worrying employment outlook became clear, the Chinese government
shifted its focus. In March, Premier Li Keqiang said the economic growth rate is “not a big deal”, as long as China can maintain a stable jobs market.

Behind Beijing’s relentless pursuit of economic growth has been the desire to create enough jobs, thereby maintaining social stability.

However, with the economy set to contract in the first quarter, it is unclear whether there will be enough jobs created to accommodate the 9 million new graduates joining the workforce this summer, never mind the millions of migrant workers looking for work.
Beijing’s challenge is particularly severe given the lack of an adequate social safety net in China.

Unemployment benefits are small and reserved for only a few – a maximum of 2.5 million people claimed unemployment benefits in each quarter over the past decade, in a country of almost 1.4 billion.

In the late-90s, China’s private sector boom absorbed those laid off by the state, while following the financial crisis the booming service sector and government stimulus spending created jobs for migrant workers. Now, there does not appear to be any quick-fire solution for China’s hoards of newly unemployed citizens.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank, said China’s “hidden unemployment” will become more visible in 2020.

“Rural migrant workers who lost their paid work are generally not included in government data,” Lu said. “Many of them may find it hard to maintain their previous living standards. Many migrant workers will have to go back to their farmland to support a basic lifestyle.”

Yu, the former contract translator who has no farmland to tilt, said he wouldn’t bother applying for unemployment benefits but would instead try to find freelance work.

“There are still some opportunities,” he said. “But wages are apparently lower than before.”

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Can China handle historic crisis in unemployment?



Frank Tang joined the SCMP in 2016 after a decade of China economy coverage and government policy analysis.
USD$2 trillion package a ‘good start’ but economic recovery relies on coronavirus containment, US economist says
BOURGEOIS POLITICAL ECONOMIST
Larry Summers, former US Treasury secretary, applauds the federal government’s swift reaction but warns there are limitations to what policies can achieve


Jodi Xu Klein in New York Published: 2 Apr, 2020

Larry Summers, former US Treasury secretary. Photo: Bloomberg
A top American economist said on Wednesday that the federal government’s economic package is a “good start” but complete recovery relies solely on containing the spread of the coronavirus.

“Success in controlling growth [of] the disease and, ultimately, putting it behind us is going to be the single most important determinant of the economic consequences of the Covid episode,” said Larry Summers, former US Treasury secretary, at a virtual event hosted by the Economic Club of New York.

Summers applauded the efforts by the Federal Reserve, Congress and the executive branch to pass legislation to stabilise the economy.

“They have made a strong start by acting with what by the context of previous crises is remarkable rapidity,” said the former director of the White House National Economic Council of the Obama administration, adding that the passage of the US$2.2 trillion package “dwarfs the Recovery Act in the spring of 2009” after the financial crisis.

Homeless in Las Vegas placed in outdoor parking lot for social-distancing

While applauding the federal government’s swift reaction, Summers warned that there are limitations to what policies can achieve.

“What happens here is ultimately going to be determined by the disease,” said Summers. “No matter how negative the interest rate, no matter how voluminous the fiscal policy, if people cannot leave their houses to work at a job or go to a store, there is going to be a very substantial limit on what the GDP can be.”

Summers warned that “the single greatest mistake that we could make would be a premature declaration of victory”.

Many New York coronavirus patients are young, surprising doctors
2 Apr 2020



He said the economy will take an even bigger hit if “we all resumed lives of relative normality and then had to return to a situation like the present”.

The massive US$2.2 trillion economic package would add to the United States’ total debt – the amount owned by the US government – that has already ballooned to a record US$23.5 trillion this year.

Summers was not concerned about the debt on Wednesday.

“If we were not to borrow, if the depression were to become that much more serious and continue that much longer, our solvency as a country would not be improved,” he said. “At this moment, the risks of under investing in our future far exceed the risks of over borrowing.”

ne challenge Summers pointed out is how to implement the massive economic plan that covers individuals and businesses with loans and grants.

“The overwhelming priority should be the protection of employees and not the protection of shareholders or bondholders who had been compensated for the risks that they have taken,” Summers said.


Pence tries to blame China and US health agency for slow virus response
2 Apr 2020


When we put Covid-19 behind us, Summers said he would expect to see a recovery that is going to take place “faster than the conventional wisdom”.

But in the short term, the outlook remains grim as about one-third of the labour force is not working, he said.

As of Wednesday, Covid-19 has infected more than 200,000 Americans and claimed more than 4,000 lives in the country. More than 75 per cent of Americans have been ordered to stay at home, keeping social distancing to contain the spread.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: economic recovery ‘hinges on containment of virus’



Jodi Xu Klein is an award-winning business journalist with 20 years of experience. She joined the Post in 2017, after a decade based in the US reporting for The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. She was part of the Time Magazine team that won the Henry R. Luce Award, breaking the China SARS story.
World at risk of second Great Depression due to coronavirus, says Chinese central bank

Zhu Jun from the People’s Bank of China says the risk is small, but the world must be alert to the threat

Economies around the world have been hit by the measures taken to stop the spread of Covid-19

Karen Yeung 5 Apr, 2020 SCMP

Measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 are likely to take
 a serious economic toll.  Photo: Xinhua

China’s central bank has warned the international community to be alert to the risk of a “Great Depression” in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak, although it said the chances of this occurring was low.

“The possibility of a ‘Great Depression’ cannot be ruled out if the epidemic continues to run out of control, and the deterioration of the real economy is compounded by an eruption of financial risks,” Zhu Jun, director of the international department of the People's Bank of China, was quoted by local media as saying last week.

The difficult trade-off between the need to protect public health and the economic cost of shutting almost all face-to-face human activity has prompted warnings from many economists that the economic shock from Covid-19 may be more severe than the 2008 global financial crisis or even the Great Depression.


The latter, which began with the Wall Street Crash of 1929, saw credit markets freezing up, massive bankruptcies, US GDP falling by more than 10 per cent and unemployment rates that touched 25 per cent.


Professor Terence Chong Tai-leung from the department of economics at the Chinese University in Hong Kong, said he was optimistic the global contraction would not be as severe as the 1930s slump.

“Governments are likely to decide to ease off restrictions by July. They need to prevent disruptions that would cause food shortages, social unrest or greater damage to human lives and the economy than if the restrictions continued,” Chong said. “The economy will naturally rebound when restrictions are lifted.”

But there is evidence the major toll this crisis is already having a massive impact on the US employment situation. US initial jobless claims of 6.65 million last week, up from 3.3 million the week previous week, highlighted fears of mass unemployment.

Currently global markets are already down 35 per cent, credit markets have seized up to 2008 levels. Even mainstream financial firms such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley expect US GDP to fall by an annualised rate of 6 per cent in the first quarter, and by 24 per cent to 30 per cent in the second.


Moody’s has warned that 30 per cent of US home loans may stop being serviced as a result of job losses and a lack of support for small businesses.

Zhu from the Chinese central bank said the biggest market uncertainty came from the fact that central banks’ swift and forceful actions could not directly help to control the epidemic but stopping its spread would help market confidence.


He said the policies of advanced economies had helped stabilise stock market sentiment but hidden risks continued to exist in the global financial system.

For example, stock markets in developed countries have been rising for many years so their valuations are under pressure.

If the market panics due to the intensifying impact of the epidemic, that could lead to tighter market liquidity, triggering market contagion across different asset classes.

The corporate sector, which has a relatively high level of debt, could also see an increase of defaults on banks’ non-performing assets and corporate bonds.


Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, said the public-health response in advanced economies has fallen far short of what is needed to contain the pandemic and so the risk of a “greater depression” was rising by the day.

He warned that if a series of virus-related negative supply shocks reduced potential growth, the fiscal response of many countries could hit a wall as they would not be able to borrow enough in their own currency.

“After the 2008 crash, a forceful (though delayed) response pulled the global economy back from the abyss. We may not be so lucky this time,” Roubini said. “Who will bail out governments, corporations, banks and households in emerging markets?”



Despite a US$349 billion government backstop, US banks are refusing to lend to struggling small businesses at 0.5 per cent, and choosing to make the loans at 1.0 per cent instead.

Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank said, in reality these financial packages can be hard to access, and may not be really effective.

“That is a Great Depression happening in the blink of an eye,” Every said. “Who knows where the damage will spread to, and when, if we are going to see 25 per cent unemployment across much of the developed world for an extended period?”


---30---
How World War II got Japan and the US hooked on amphetamines, ‘the ultimate military performance enhancing drug’


In this second excerpt of Peter Andreas’ book Killer High, the author recounts how a post-war surplus of the drug triggered addiction epidemics on both sides of the Pacific
Published: 23 Feb, 2020
https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/3051418/how-world-war-ii-got-japan-and-us-got-hooked

In The Art of War , Sun Tzu wrote that speed is “the essence of war”. While he, of course, did not have amphetamines in mind, he would no doubt have been impressed by their powerful war-facilitating psychoactive effects. Amphetamines – often called “pep pills”, “go pills”, “uppers” or “speed” – are a group of synthetic drugs that stimulate the central nervous system, reducing fatigue and appetite and increasing wakefulness and a sense of well-being.

Methamphetamine is a particularly potent and addictive form of the drug, best known today as “crystal meth”. All amphetamines are now banned or tightly regu­lated. The quintessential drug of the modern industrial age, amphetamines arrived relatively late in the history of mind-altering substances – commercialised just in time for mass consumption during World War II by the leading industrial powers.

Few drugs have received a bigger stimulus from war. As Lester Grinspoon and Peter Hedblom wrote in their 1975 study The Speed Culture, “World War II probably gave the greatest impetus to date to legal medically authorised as well as illicit black market abuse of these pills on a world­wide scale.” The story of this drugs-war relation­ship is there­fore mostly about the proliferation of synthetic stimulant use during World War II and its speed-fuelled aftermath.

While produced entirely in the laboratory, amphetamines owe their existence to the search for an artificial substitute for the ma-huang plant, better known in the West as ephedra. (AKA MORMON TEA) This relatively scarce desert shrub had been used as a herbal remedy for more than 5,000 years in China, where it was often ingested to treat common ailments such as coughs and colds and to promote concentration and alertness, including by night guards patrolling the Great Wall of China.


Japanese chemist Nagayoshi Nagai.

In 1887, Japanese chemist Nagayoshi Nagai successfully extracted the plant’s active ingredient, ephedrine, which closely resembled adrenaline, and in 1919, another Japanese scientist, Akira Ogata, developed a synthetic substitute for ephedrine. But it was not until amphetamine was synthesised in 1927, at a University of California at Los Angeles laboratory by young British chemist Gordon Alles, that a formula became available for commercial medical use.

Alles sold this formula to Philadelphia pharmaceutical company Smith, Kline & French, which brought it to the market in 1932 as the Benzedrine inhaler (an over-the-counter product to treat asthma and congestion) before introducing it in tablet form a few years later. “Bennies” were widely promoted as a wonder drug for all sorts of ailments, from depression to obesity, with little apparent concern or awareness of their addictive potential and the risk of longer-term physi­cal and psychological damage. And with the outbreak of another world war, it did not take long for such large-scale pill pushing to also reach the battlefield.


The Japanese imperial government sought to give its fighting capacity a pharmacological edge, contracting out methamphetamine production to domestic pharmaceuti­cal companies for use during World War II. The tablets, under the trade name Philopon (also known as Hiropin), were distributed to pilots for long flights and to soldiers for combat. In addition, the government gave munitions workers and those labouring in other factories meth­amphe­ta­mine tablets to increase their productivity. The Japanese called the war stimulants senryoku zokyo zai, or “drug to inspire the fighting spirits”.

Workers in the defence industry and other war-related fields were compelled to take drugs to help boost their output. Strong pre-war inhibitions against drug use were pushed aside. The introduction of what is now the illegal drug of choice in Japan therefore began with state-promoted use during the second world war.

It is not difficult to understand the appeal of metham­phetamines in wartime Japan. Total war required total mobilisation, from factory to battlefield. Pilots, soldiers, naval crews and labourers were all pushed beyond their natural limits to stay awake longer and work harder. As one group of scholars notes, in Japan, “taking stimulants to enhance performance was a mark of patriotism”.

Kamikaze pilots in particular took large doses of meth­amphetamine via injection before their suicide missions. They were also given pep pills stamped with the crest of the emperor. These consisted of methamphetamine mixed with green-tea powder and were called Totsugeki-Jo or Tokkou-Jo, known otherwise as “storming tablets”. Most kamikaze pilots were young men, often in their late teens. Before they received their injection of Philopon, the pilots undertook a warrior ceremony in which they were presented with sake, wreaths of flowers and decorated headbands.

A kamikaze pilot tries to crash his plane loaded with bombs onto the deck of a US warship. Photo: Getty Images

Although soldiers on all sides in World War II returned home with an amphetamine habit, the problem was most severe in Japan, which experienced the first drug epidemic in the country’s history. Many soldiers and factory workers who had become hooked on the drug during the war conti­nued to consume it post-war. Users could get their hands on amphetamines because the Imperial Army’s post-war surplus had been dumped into the domestic market.

At the time of its surrender in 1945, Japan had massive stockpiles of Hiropin in warehouses, military hospitals, supply depots and caves scattered throughout the islands. Some of the supply was sent to public dispensaries for distribution as medicine, but the rest was diverted to the black market rather than destroyed. The country’s Yakuza crime syndicate took over much of the distribution, and the drug trade would eventually become its most important source of revenue. Any tablets not diverted to illicit markets remained in the hands of pharmaceutical companies

The drug companies mounted advertising campaigns to encourage consumers to purchase the over-the-counter medicine. Sold under the name “wake-a-mine”, the product was pitched as offering “enhanced vitality”. According to one journalist, these companies also sold “hundreds of thou­sands of pounds” of “military-made liquid meth” left over from the war to the public, with no prescription required to purchase the drug. With an estimated 5 per cent of Japanese between the ages of 18 and 25 taking the drug, many became intravenous addicts. The presence of United States military bases on the islands contributed to the epidemic.

National newspaper Asahi wrote that US servicemen were responsible for spreading amphetamine use from large cities to small towns. Indeed, the country’s Narcotics Section arrested 623 American soldiers for drug trafficking in 1953. However, most drug scandals involving US soldiers garnered little coverage by the major papers out of “defer­ence” to “American-Japanese friendship”.

By 1954, there were 550,000 illicit amphetamine users in Japan. This epidemic led to strict state regulation of the drug. The 1951 Stimulant Control Law banned methamphetamine possession, and penalties for the offence were increased in 1954. In 1951, some 17,500 people were arrested for amphetamine abuse, and by 1954 the number had spiked to 55,600. During the early 1950s, arrests in Japan for stimulant offences made up more than 90 per cent of total drug arrests. In a 1954 Ministry of Welfare anonymous survey, 7.5 per cent of respondents reported having sampled Hiropon. Meanwhile, the Asahi published an estimate that 1.5 million Japanese used methamphetamine in 1954.

US troops in the Korean War. Photo: Getty Images

The high rates of amphetamine use in Japan began to subside by the late 1950s and early 1960s as economic growth began to create jobs. Nevertheless, it is striking that metham­pheta­mine would remain the most popular illicit drug in Japan for decades to come. Germany, meanwhile, did not experience the same post-war surge in stimulant use found in Japan, in part because the occupation dismantled domestic production.

The area where Temmler Werke had produced Pervitin came under Soviet occupation, and the factory was expropriated. At the same time, American pharmaceutical companies bought up the firm’s production facilities in the western zones, and it would take years for Temmler Werke to restart production in its new Marburg location. Moreover, Germany had already imposed tighter controls on Pervitin during the war, making it less accessible even before the war came to an end.

In contrast to tapering off in post-war Germany, amphe­ta­mine consumption in the US took off. Pharmacologist Leslie Iversen writes that “the non-medical use of ampheta­mines spread rapidly in the 20 years after the second world war. This was partly due to the attitude of the medical community to these drugs, which continued to view them as safe and effective medicines, and partly due to the wide­spread exposure of US military personnel to D-ampheta­mine during the war”.

By the late 1950s, pharmaceutical companies in the US were legally manufacturing 3.5 billion tablets annually – equivalent to 20 doses of five to 15 milli­grams for every American. Of all major powers in the decades after World War II, the US stood out for its conti­nued heavy military use of speed. Indeed, although ampheta­mines had been widely available to US service members during World War II, they became standard issue during the Korean war (1950-1953).

Smith, Kline & French was more than happy to be the supplier of choice once again, although this time it was supplying the military with dextroamphetamine (sold under the brand name Dexedrine), which was almost twice as potent on a milligram basis as the Benzedrine used during World War II. The manufacturer insisted that the drug had no negative side effects and was non-addictive.

Police officers in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, pour 15,000 amphetamine pills into the city incinerator, in 1960. Photo: Getty Images

In addition to coming home hooked on speed, some service­men returning from the Korean war also introduced to the US new methods of ingesting the drug. Dr Roger Smith, who ran the Amphetamine Research Project at the Haight-Ashbury Free Clinic, notes that the first reported case of Americans engaging in intravenous methamphetamine abuse involved servicemen based in Korea and Japan in the early 1950s. It is perhaps no coincidence that East Asia was at that time “awash in supplies of liquid meth left over from World War II”.

Returning soldiers may have been some of the first to build meth labs in the US. Following numerous arrests in 1962 of California doctors who were illegally prescribing injectable methamphetamine to patients, and pharmaceu­ti­­cal companies’ voluntary withdrawal of the drug from stores, those looking for a profit or a fix came up with a solution. Several Korean war veterans reportedly got together in the San Francisco Bay Area to build the first meth labs to take advantage of the scarcity of the drug after the recall of Methedrine and Desoxyn.

High levels of amphetamine use among the US armed forces persisted into
the Vietnam war. Although the recommended dose was 20 milligrams of Dexedrine for 48 hours of combat-readiness, the reality was that the drug was handed out, as one soldier put it, “like candies”, with little attention to dosage or frequency of use.

Elton Manzione, a member of a long-range reconnaissance platoon, acknowledged: “We had the best amphetamines available and they were supplied by the US government.” A navy commando noted, “When I was a SEAL team member in Vietnam, the drugs were routinely consumed. They gave you a sense of bravado as well as keeping you awake. Every sight and sound was heightened. You were wired into it all and at times you felt really invulnerable.”

The US military supplied its troops with more than 225 million doses of Dexedrine (and the French-manufactured Obestol) during the war. Soldiers could also buy ampheta­mine over the counter in many cities and towns in Vietnam. Grinspoon and Hedblom argue that all the attention given to illicit drug consumption by soldiers during the Vietnam war glossed over the more severe problem of amphetamine addiction.

US Army helicopters attack a Viet Cong camp, in 1965. Photo: AP

A key source of information on amphetamine use in Vietnam was the 1971 Inquiry into Alleged Drug Abuse in the Armed Services, a report of the House of Representatives Committee on Armed Services. The report noted that due to increased safety concerns, amphetamines had been removed from survival kits by 1971, and prescrip­tions of these drugs had sharply declined: in 1966, the US Navy issued the equivalent of 33 million 10-milligram capsules of amphetamine, but by 1970 this number had dropped to 7 million capsules. Though these numbers demonstrated reductions in usage over time, they also revealed the high rates of amphetamine use in the US military during the Vietnam war.

According to another report published in 1971, The Fourth Report by the Select Committee on Crime, “Over the past four years, the Navy seems to have required more stimulants than any other branch of the services. Their annual, active duty, pill-per-person requirement averaged 21.1 during the years 1966-69. The Air Force has flown almost as high by requiring 17.5 10-milligram doses per person in those years. The Army comes in last, averaging 13.8 doses per person per year.”

Grinspoon and Hedblom point out that these figures suggest that from 1966 to 1969, members of the US Army alone took more amphetamines than all British or American armed forces in the second world war. They note that even as the military launched a campaign against heroin, it continued to overlook amphetamine use, and indeed routinely supplied the drug to the troops in Southeast Asia as late as 1973.

In the following years, even as amphetamines came to be tightly controlled at home, the US Air Force kept dispens­ing them to pilots. Dexedrine was given to the crews of F-111 aircraft for their 13-hour-long missions to Libya during Operation El Dorado Canyon in mid-April 1986. The drug was again given out in late December 1989 during Operation Just Cause in Panama, and during the 1990-1991 Gulf War, almost two-thirds of fighter jet pilots in Operation Desert Shield and more than half in Operation Desert Storm took amphetamines.

Operations Desert Shield and Storm saw the deploy­ment of aircraft from the continental United States to the Arabian Peninsula, a trip that required a 15-hour flight across five to seven time zones. One pilot admitted, “Without go pills I would have fallen asleep maybe 10 to 15 times.” In 1991, Air Force Chief of Staff General Merrill McPeak temporarily banned amphetamines, saying the pills were no longer needed with the ending of combat operations in Iraq. But in 1996, Air Force Chief of Staff John Jumper quietly reversed the ban.

Short of an unlikely epidemic of [attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder] among our soldiers, the military almost certainly uses the stimulants to help fatigued and sleep-deprived troops stay alert and awakeRichard A. Friedman, psychiatrist

At the turn of the century, supplying ampheta­mines to US aircrews remained standard practice, though the air force had its crews sign a consent form emphasising that taking the pills was volun­tary. The form appeared to both leave the decision of whether to take Dexedrine up to the pilot and compel the pilot to take the medication with him on the flight.

A study of dextroamphetamine use during B-2 combat missions in Operation Iraqi Freedom revealed high rates of amphetamine use among pilots. The pilots flew B-2 bombers from either Whiteman Air Force Base in Montana or a forward deployed location to targets in Iraq. Pilots on the shorter missions used dextroamphetamine on 97 per cent of their sorties, while those on the longer missions used the drug in 57 per cent of sorties. The puzzling differ­ence between these two rates was partly explained by the fact that napping was more often possible on longer flights, reducing pilots’ need for the drug.

Moreover, the US military’s spending on stimulant medications, such as the amphetamine drugs Ritalin and Adderall, reportedly reached US$39 million in 2010 alone, up from US$7.5 million in 2001 – a jump of more than 500 per cent. Medical officers were writing 32,000 prescriptions for Ritalin and Adderall for active-duty servicemembers every year, up from only 3,000 five years earlier. It remains unclear whether these prescriptions were to counter attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) or fatigue, but, as psychiatrist Richard A. Friedman notes, “short of an unlikely epidemic of that disorder among our soldiers, the military almost certainly uses the stimulants to help fatigued and sleep-deprived troops stay alert and awake.”

Meanwhile, US Air Force researchers continued to insist that pilot use of amphetamines enhanced their fighting capacity while decreasing accidents. Dr John Caldwell, writing in Air & Space Power Journal, defended ampheta­mine use by arguing that for pilots in the “war on terror”, “around-the-clock operations, rapid time-zone transitions, and uncomfortable sleep environments are common on the battlefield; unfortunately, these conditions prevent personnel from obtaining the eight solid hours of sleep required for optimum day-to-day functioning.”

Amphetamines have been the ultimate military performance enhancing drug ever since World War II. That war was not only the most destructive in human history but also the most pharmacologically enhanced. It was literally sped up by speed, with tens of millions of pills doled out to combatants to keep them fighting more and sleeping less. Despite their shift from being widely accessible to being strictly controlled in later decades, the pills have become the drug of choice for many combatants in the most war-ravaged region of the world and continue to be prescribed by the world’s leading military power.

EXCERPT FROM
Killer High: A History of War in Six Drugs is published by Oxford University Press.

Peter Andrea is the John Hay Professor of International Studies. He is the author, co-author, or co-editor of eleven books, including his most recent, Killer High: A History of War in Six Drugs (Oxford University Press, 2020), which explores the relationship between warfare and mind altering substances, from ancient times to the present. Andreas has also written for a wide range of scholarly and policy publications. Other writings include congressional testimonies and op-eds in major newspapers, such as The New York Times, Washington Post, and The Guardian.

His new book, Killer High: A History of War in Six Drugs (Oxford University Press, 2020), explores the relationship between warfare and mind altering substances, from ancient times to the present.
Jan 3, 2020 - In a newly released book, “Killer High: A History of War in Six Drugs,” Peter Andreas, a professor of international studies at Brown University, has drawn from an impressive and eclectic mix of sources to give psychoactive and addictive drugs a fuller place in discussions of war.

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Luther Urswick
Updated on June 17, 2019

With interests in science, nature, history and the paranormal, Luther explores topics from a unique and sometimes controversial perspective.


Legends of strange creatures have been with us since the beginning of time. Cryptozoologists study these animals, and sort of out fact from fiction. | Source

What Is Cryptozoology?

The word cryptozoology means literally the "study of hidden animals”, those which some people believe are out there but science has yet to officially acknowledge.

Think of Bigfoot or the Loch Ness Monster. You know, those creatures that make your friends smile, nod and slowly move away from you whenever you bring them up in conversation. These mystery creatures (the animals, not your friends) are known as cryptids.

Cryptozoology has unfortunately earned a reputation with the mainstream public as a kooky diversion, practiced by the same guys who contact UFOs using modified CB radios while wearing hats made from tin foil. However, the good cryptozoologists are more about science than silliness, and have hatched some compelling theories over the years to explain sightings of unusual animals.

But even the best cryptozoologists have a lot working against them. A serious biologist or zoologist who spends their time and money in the pursuit of some mythical creature is risking career suicide. There is little grant money to be had for a researcher who decides to take a year away from teaching at the University and treks off to the Himalayas in hopes of meeting a Yeti.

Along with financial struggles and losing the respect of your mainstream peers comes the frustration of limited results for your efforts. Progress moves slowly in cryptozoology, and new discoveries and evidence are hard to come by. A researcher may spend a lifetime searching in vain.

So why do they do it? What makes these people tick? And do they ever really come up with any evidence aside from footprints and blurry pictures?

What Do Cryptozoologists Study?

If cryptozoology is the study of unknown animals than one could argue that by going into your backyard and turning up rocks in the hopes of finding some undiscovered bug you are indeed a cryptozoologist. You’re searching for unknown animals, and it’s a lot less expensive and time consuming than a month-long trip to Africa.

In fact, there are likely thousands if not millions of undiscovered insect species in the world, most of them in deep jungles. So why aren’t more cryptozoologists creeping around in the rainforest with a magnifying glass?

It’s not so simple. There is no debate that there are countless undiscovered animals in the world. However, there is a great deal of debate regarding the remaining species of large fauna yet to be discovered.

Cryptozoology is about finding the big animals, those creatures that many of us believe can’t possibly have gone undiscovered for so long. Some are so bizarre that there must be a supernatural component to their existence. Some are believed to be real animals, yet to be discovered by science.

Others are creatures that we know once roamed the Earth, but science tells us they went extinct long ago. Some say there are fascinating prehistoric beasts still lurking in far corners of the world, even living dinosaurs.

This is the part that separates cryptozoology from mainstream science. Logically, it makes little sense for many of these creatures to have eluded human detection, and we often dismiss the idea of their existence as borderline absurd.

Still, many of us are intrigued. Wouldn’t it be interesting if some of these fantastic tales of bizarre animals proved to be true? And that’s what makes a cryptozoologist get out of bed in the morning. We’re all interested in the possibility of the unknown, but they get out there and look for it.


How to Become a Cryptozoologist

If you’re considering a career in cryptozoology it’s probably a good idea to take a step back and think things through. While there are a handful of researchers who make a living writing books, lecturing and even hosting TV shows or radio programs, for most cryptozoologists it is a labor of love.

That’s an artistic way of saying you probably aren’t going to make much money doing it. In fact, you’ll spend a lot of money in the process. That doesn't mean cryptozoology isn’t a worthwhile pursuit, but you do need to be realistic about it.

There are no real qualifications to becoming a cryptozoologist, no degree programs and no governing body. You simply need to have an interest, and get out and do it. However, it is important to note that earning the respect of your peers (other serious researchers) will serve as a kind of credentialing process.

There are all kinds of monster hunters out there, and those who give cryptozoology a bad name are no help to the emerging science.

If you believe you want to pursue cryptozoology in your spare time, or even see if you can somehow make a career out of it, it’s a good idea to look at comparable mainstream sciences as your main area of study.

You may go to school and earn a degree in anthropology, zoology, marine biology or some other natural science, with the eventual goal of become a professor. Teachers get lots of time off, and at least you’d have a glimmer of hope for snagging some grant money for your studies.

Or you may wish to pursue another totally unrelated field. Cryptozoolgists come from every profession, and have taken many diverse paths. You may wish to choose something where you can make tons of money to fund your yearly expeditions in search of the Megalodon shark!

What Would You Do?

You're looking out your kitchen window into your backyard one morning and you spot Bigfoot! You get a clear view, and you're sure it is him. You even snap a couple of pictures. What do you do next?
Find a buyer for the pictures and cash in. Cha ching!
Get on the phone and tell everyone I know. This is so cool!
Tell only a few people I can trust to keep a secret.
Tell nobody and keep the pictures safe. It's a private experience between me and nature.
Check myself into the hospital. Hopefully this delusion was just caused by something I ate.See results


Where It All Began

No doubt humans have been telling tall tales about strange animals since the invention of language, but what we think of as modern cryptozoology is likely only a bit older than a century. In 1892 a Dutch zoologist named Anthonie Cornelis Oudemans published the manuscript called The Great Sea Serpent.

Here, Oudemans contends that sighting of sea serpents may be attributed to an as-yet-unknown species of giant, elongated seal. Oudemans was a respected scientist, the director of the Dutch Royal Zoological Gardens, but few took his book seriously. And they still haven’t found the giant seal.

Explorer and researcher Bernard Heuvelmans is another notable figure in early cryptozoology. In 1955 Heuvelmans published On theTrack of Unknown Animals, a book that earned him the title of Father of Cryptozoology . Heuvelmans’s book laid out a detailed account of cryptids from around the world, and inspired many a young mind to take up their pursuit.

Nowadays, you can hardly click on the television without coming across a show on cryptozoology. Finding Bigfoot, which airs on Animal Planet, is perhaps the most noteworthy. Destination Truth (Syfy Channel), and Beast Hunter (National Geographic Channel) are other shows which have delved heavily into the search for unknown creatures.

So if all these people are out there looking why don’t we have crystal-clear photos of a smiling Sasquatch with his arm around a researcher by now? What exactly are these people looking for, and what are the chances of finding it?


Oudemans's search for the legendary sea serpent led him to suggest sightings were due to a strange, rare seal. | Source

Strange and Elusive Creatures

Below you'll read about a few of the more famous creatures in the world of cryptozoology. None of these animals have been proven my mainstream science, but nevertheless there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest they are out there. As a cryptozoologist you may specialize in the study of one or more of these creatures.

Bigfoot

He’s the star of the cryptozoology world, known to deftly elude researchers but then reveal himself to anyone with a camera incapable of shooting a clear picture.

Called Sasquatch in the Pacific Northwest, Skunk Ape in the South and Yeti in the Himalayas, Bigfoot is believed to be a species of undiscovered ape, possibly evolved from the extinct Gigantopithecus Blacki.

Sightings date back to Native American times, and in modern days Bigfoot is spotted in just about every inch of the United States and Canada, so it seems your chances of spotting him are better than they are for most creatures on this list.

Amazing Evidence from the Show "Finding Bigfoot"


Loch Ness Monster

Second only to the big, hairy guy listed above, Nessie is said to inhabit Loch Ness of Scotland.

It’s a huge lake and extremely deep. The lake is connected to the ocean by waterways, leading some to believe Nessie could be a sea creature of some kind, or at least travel that route to and from the ocean.

Furthering that theory is the debate of whether or not Loch Ness contains the food necessary to support a population of such large creatures. Like other lake monsters such as Ogo Pogo and Champ, Nessie is thought by some to be a Plesiosaur, a species of aquatic reptile long gone extinct.

Orang Pendek

Translated to “Short Person” in Indonesian, Orang Pendek is a small, hairy, bipedal humanoid creature spotted in the jungles of Sumatra.

Like a tiny Bigfoot, Orang Pendek may be an undiscovered species of ape or other primitive hominid. But it may also share a much closer relation to humans.

The discovery of the bones of a species of small, prehistoric human dubbed Homo floresiensis on the Indonesian island of Flores sparked the theory that Orang Pendek may be a related species, hidden in the jungles and rarely seen.

Mapinguari

It’s a giant beast that terrorizes locals in the South American jungles, with a mouth on its stomach, backward-facing feet, huge claws and a horrible stench.

It might sounds crazy, but some researchers think the Mapinguari may be a species of giant ground sloth thought to have gone extinct thousands of years ago.

Megatherium was a species of massive sloth that some researchers think may have existed as recently as 15,000 years ago. Could it be that this beasty that terrorizes natives in the jungle is actually a living Megatherium? Until somebody finds one, we just don’t know.

Megalodon Shark

Thousands of years ago a massive shark over 50 feet in length stalked the world’s oceans and some say it is still around.

Like a monstrous great white it fed on marine mammals, in this case enormous whales and other large creatures. It was called Carcharodon Megalodon, and it was the apex predator of its day and the largest carnivore ever to exist on this planet.

While modern science says it went extinct thousands of years in the past, some say Meg is still around today, lurking deep in the ocean. Strange creatures once thought extinct have resurfaced before, and we still have a huge percentage of the ocean left to explore. Could Megalodon still be out there?

Mokele Mbembe

Is it possible that there are isolated places in the world where dinosaurs still exist, undocumented by modern science and lost to history?

Mokele Mbembe is a beast known to local tribes in the African Congo. It is described as having the body of an elephant with a long neck and small head. To some brave researchers, this sounds like a sauropod dinosaur.

But Mokele Mbeme isn’t the only dino still plodding around in Africa. Several different types of creatures have been spotted in and around the Congo River basin, leading some researchers to think a small remnant population of dinosaurs may well exist in Africa.

It makes absolutely no sense based on what we know of the history of the planet, but there is no denying that people are spotting strange things in Africa, and they describe them as dinosaurs.



Could some dinosaurs have survived extinction and still live today? | Source

Do You Believe in Strange Creatures?

“Do you believe” is really the wrong question to ask in cryptozoology. Because we’re talking about animals that may be real, belief is irrelevant. Science can and should bear out the existence of these creatures over time, if they exist. Any interest in exploring unknown cryptids should spur from the facts available, not some mystical belief in the wonders of the universe.

Most of these creatures, by way of sightings and other evidence, merit at least some level of scientific investigation. We’ve all heard the old cliché about the remaining unexplored parts of our globe, and what a shame it would be to ignore our curiosity for amazing discoveries. It would be an incredible thing to validate a legend.

Or would it? What if a population of Bigfoot were discovered and documented by mainstream science? True, it would amaze and shock the world, and the name of the researcher who found them would go down in history.

But what next? Do we put them in a zoo? Dissect and analyze them? While we all would like to see the mysteries of the world revealed? Would the final result of such a discovery be worth it? Perhaps some mysteries are better left alone.

No matter what is eventually discovered, it’s hard to imagine that mankind’s of the unknown will ever be satisfied. There will never be a shortage of stories of strange creatures or people willing to go out and look for them. There will always be a place in the world for Cryptozoology .

Is Finding Bigfoot a Good Idea?

What would happen if a population of Sasquatch were discovered?
They'd be tagged, bagged and carted off to some research facility.

On the surface it would seem like a good thing, but they'd be exploited soon enough.
Laws would be passed and they would be protected.

It would be awesome, and we're evolved enough to treat them right.See results

Xi Jinping, Winnie the Pooh and the Canadian origins of the bear that’s banned in ChinaXi Jinping

Comparisons between the beloved character and the Chinese president might have gone viral, but few are aware that Winnie’s story began in Canada during World War I

Patrick Blennerhassett 30 Dec, 2019

While most are now familiar with satirical comparisons of Chinese President Xi Jinping and popular children’s cartoon character Winnie the Pooh, fewer may know that the lovable bear’s origins lead all the way to a heartland Canadian city during the first world war.

Now, for the first time since “ Xi the Pooh” took root in 2013 – leading to Winnie’s likeness being banned in China, whether as a stuffed toy, paper mask or social-media sticker – the author of two books on the bear’s history, and great-granddaughter of Winnie’s original owner, has spoken about the bear’s enduring worldwide popularity (except, you know, in that one place).

“It is so outrageous and absurd,” says Canadian Lindsay Mattick, whose award-winning children’s books are still available in China despite the controversy. “To ban something like Winnie the Pooh, one of the most loving, peaceful and happy stories of all time, is really quite sad.”

Lindsay Mattick, the great-granddaughter of Harry Colebourn, 
Winnie’s original owner, and author of the book Finding Winnie. 
Photo: Lindsay Mattick

In 1914, a trainload of military men pulled into White River, Ontario, on their way to training in Quebec before heading to the war in Europe. During the brief stop, a 27-year-old Canadian soldier, Harry Colebourn, originally from England, made a purchase from a trapper: a black bear cub.

The trapper had killed the mother but said he could not do the same to its cub. Smitten, Colebourn handed over some cash and dubbed the female cub Winnie, after his adopted hometown of Winnipeg, Manitoba.

Colebourn took Winnie to England, where she became the regimental mascot of the Canadian Army Veterinary Corps before, realising the severity of the fighting, he reluctantly gave her to London Zoo. Winnie went on to become a star attraction, catching the eye of a little boy called Christopher Robin Milne, who renamed his teddy bear Winnie in her honour.

His bear and other toy animals would inspire his father, author A.A. Milne, in 1926 to create Winnie-the-Pooh (“Pooh” was Christopher Robin’s name for a swan), one of the world’s most beloved children’s characters, appearing in four books and, half a century later, in Walt Disney’s world-famous animation.

Mattick discovered her great-grandfather’s connection to the stories as a child, while reading his diary with her family. In 2015 she published the children’s picture book Finding Winnie: The True Story of the World’s Most Famous Bear, winner of the Caldecott Medal in 2016. The book tells the story of Winnie and Harry and then Winnie and Christopher Robin. (Her second book, Winnie’s Great War, was published in 2018.)

“She was at the London Zoo for 20 years,” Mattick says. “She had a very friendly, docile nature, which is not the norm for a bear. But I would like to think that she got off on the right foot with my great-grandfather, who really loved animals and cared for her.”

The cartoon version of Winnie the Pooh first appeared in 1977, in Disney’s The Adventures of Winnie the Pooh, about the lovable bear and his animal friends – Piglet, Eeyore, Kanga, Roo, Rabbit and Tigger.

For the next few decades, Winnie the Pooh and his cohort were universally beloved. Then in 2013, Mattick, who runs her own public relations company in Toronto, caught wind of a bizarre case of anti-Winnie-ism. A photo had surfaced online of Xi and United States president Barack Obama next to a picture of similarly positioned cartoon characters, likening Obama to Tigger and Xi to Winnie the Pooh.

The Reuters image of Chinese President Xi Jinping with then US President Barack Obama next to a picture of Winnie the Pooh and Tigger that went viral on Weibo in 2013. Photo: Xinhua

The Reuters photo of the two leaders was taken during a summit in Sunnylands, California, but the source of the split shot is unknown. It soon went viral on Weibo, China’s ersatz answer to Twitter. Pictures were quickly deleted by censors, who apparently did not appreciate the comparison of the Chinese president to a bashful, hapless, chubby yellow bear.

When Mattick heard the news, she had a tough time wrapping her head around it. She did not do any media interviews, but she did receive a lot of messages from friends and family about the rather odd news that the leader of a country could be so thin-skinned as to think Winnie the Pooh posed a threat.

China’s Winnie the Pooh ban has since extended to the release ofChristopher Robin , a 2018 film starring Ewan McGregor as the boy who fell in love with Winnie. While censoring the image in China is one aspect of the story, it has given the meme a life outside the mainland. Internet users continue to link images of Xi to Winnie the Pooh, including one in 2014 with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe filling in as Pooh’s melancholy donkey pal, Eeyore.

Of course, this is not the only thing the Chinese government has deemed unsuitable for its citizens. A long list of entertainment-related images, books, memes and shows have been banned over the years, the latest being the satirical US cartoon South Park, after a recent episode took a dig at China.

The image of Eeyore and Winnie the Pooh that proliferated after comparisons were drawn between Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Xi and the two cartoon characters. Photo: Reuters

Vancouver-based University of British Columbia professor Florian Gassner, who specialises in the role of censorship in society, says Beijing’s actions have had both intended and unintended consequences. He says it is important to remember the target of this ban is internal, not external.

“And we should probably not forget that a lot of citizens in China support the Communist Party,” Gassner says. “When they see their government strike something down like this, it could be interpreted as the system working.”

It’s a trend Gassner has been seeing in authoritative countries where censorship has been taken to a new level, from India’s online troll armies to Russia’s state media. “The part that fascinates me is that governments are not capitulating, they are doubling down, doing their best to get all of this under control,” he says.

Mattick, who has held exhibitions about Winnie’s origins, says she hopes families in China can still enjoy the stories the bear has inspired, given their positive messages.

“I hope the Chinese population has the chance to not only read about the story but feel good about the story and feel proud about sharing it with their children without feeling like they are doing something subversive,” she says. “I feel sad that this particular chain of events has led to such a mixed perception that doesn’t seem in any way keeping with the spirit of the books and the stories.”


Patrick Blennerhassett is an award-winning Canadian journalist and four-time published author. He is a Jack Webster Fellowship winner and a British Columbia bestselling novelist. His work has been published in The Guardian, Reader's Digest, The Globe & Mail, Business Insider, MSN and his commentary has appeared on the BBC and the CBC.

FROM THE SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST SCMP