LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: 07/07/20

Tuesday, July 07, 2020

Bolsonaro: ‘I drank hydroxychloroquine and I’m feeling great’

Published July 7, 2020 By Sarah Toce, The New Civil Rights Movement

Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has reportedly contracted COVID-19 and says he’s taking hydroxychloroquine as a means to recovery. The 65-year-old confirmed the diagnosis to journalists on Tuesday as he arrived to his presidential palace.

After asking reporters to step aside, Bolsonaro removed his face mask. “See, I am fine. See you next week, God willing.”

WATCH: #Bolsonaro, after testing positive for #coronavirus, steps back and takes off mask while speaking to reporters: "Just look at my face, I'm fine"
ic.twitter.com/NfRValSt61
— AS-Source News (@ASB_Breaking) July 7, 2020

Bolsonaro said he was suffering muscle aches, fatigue and a fever but otherwise felt “normal.” This is a man who, prior to his diagnosis, repeatedly referred to COVID-19 as “just a little flu” and said the media coverage of the pandemic was “hysteria.” He also said, “Life continues. But if the economy doesn’t work it will bring new forms of death and suicide.”

The Los Angeles Times reported that more than 65,000 Brazilians have died from COVID-19 — the second-highest death toll in the world after the United States. An additional 1.6 million people have tested positive for the virus in Brazil. Low levels of testing mean deaths and infections are likely much higher.

With his positive COVID-19 result, Bolsonaro now joins U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez. The latter two world leaders were hospitalized during treatment.

– Coletiva no Palácio do Alvorada – 07 JULHO de 2020. https://t.co/FCKPt1yh5l
— Jair M. Bolsonaro (@jairbolsonaro) July 7, 2020

Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro, who repeatedly played down the risks of Covid-19, has tested positive

He took the test, his fourth, on Monday after developing symptoms, including a high temperaturehttps://t.co/mq63Ta66v4 pic.twitter.com/LxL9VHct8d
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) July 7, 2020

#Bolsonaro: Covid-19 is just a little flu
Covid-19: pic.twitter.com/RNQct9GSZ7
— kj3ll0l (@Kj3ll0l) July 7, 2020

Can #Trump please visit #Bolsonaro – without a mask…
— #BlackLivesMatter Schaltjahr (@chiquitaflanke) July 7, 2020

#Bolsonaro (finally) acknowledged grave risk posed by a virus he'd dismissed as just a "little flu." "We know the fatality of the virus for those of a certain age, like me, above 65, and for those with comorbidities, diseases, other issues." ARE YOU THINKING WHAT I'M THINKING?
— bettemidler (@BetteMidler) July 7, 2020

#Bolsonaro tests positive for a virus he doesn't believe in. I really, really, really shouldn't but…. pic.twitter.com/ADuKkf6Csq
— TRJFF (@TRJFF) July 7, 2020

Karma strikes again. I would never wish this virus on my worst enemy but karma doesn't care. #Bolsonaro pic.twitter.com/ZqgQo6Gc2r
— Dwayne Walton (@23dwayne) July 7, 2020

Trump’s fans had a choice: They could reject his toxic nonsense or completely lose it. They chose B

Published July 7, 2020 By Bob Cesca, Salon- Commentary

Normally, I wouldn’t be at all concerned about a professional tabloid weirdo like Kanye West running for president. Today, however, I’m actually quite concerned, and not because I think Kanye is likely to win or even fumble his way onto enough ballots to make a dent. He won’t. For now.

The problem with Kanye or other political hobbyists running for president is that it further erodes the already threadbare integrity of our presidential politics, making it increasingly acceptable for other famous-for-being-famous nincompoops to run, and perhaps win. The last four years have illustrated how profoundly dangerous that can be.

These days, the ground is especially fertile for dilettantes and tourists to run for national office. Even on the Democratic side, sparingly. There are myriad reasons for it, but chief among them is that we appear to be experiencing an American nervous breakdown — a societal form of psychological imbalance that’s abundantly evident and worsening by the day.
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It became blindingly noticeable in 2016, but during the course of this year in particular, our national freakout has worsened to a point where sound judgment has been dangerously inhibited, while reality and reason have become increasingly rare commodities, largely abandoned by at least 40 percent of us. America is engaged in a transcontinental meltdown and it’s not getting better.

If you need evidence, take a look around you.

Alleged grownups are routinely scolding anyone wearing a mask, either because the mask wearers are, they say, succumbing to fear or because the mask wearers are merely doing it to express their disapproval of Donald Trump, whose existence as president, by the way, is more responsible than anything else for the breakdown. Trump has exploited the bully pulpit to undermine our national sense of right and wrong, of reality and fiction, to the point where his most loyal disciples — again, chronological adults — don’t have any idea what’s real and what’s fake.

To wit: there was a video flying around Twitter over the weekend in which a Florida lawyer dressed up like the Grim Reaper was accosted by a possibly-intoxicated beachgoer who insisted that the coronavirus outbreak is a plot by China, via the Bidens, to screw Donald Trump. Another video showed a woman destroying a display rack of N-95 masks at a department store because something-something-QAnon. Likewise, a couple was captured on video painting over the yellow “Black Lives Matter” slogan on the street in the sleepy suburban town of Martinez, California, while blurting pro-Trump non sequiturs at astonished onlookers. It seems like there are new videos like these every hour on the hour, each one showing privileged white Americans in full catastrophic meltdown.

Sizable crowds of Trump supporters, along with party-going assemblies of younger people, are gathering together without masks and without social distancing in defiance of the virus, apparently believing the pandemic can be intimidated by patriotic American resolve, not unlike our national reaction to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Hundreds if not thousands of these dinguses, along with the friends and family members they may subsequently infect, will end up burdening our already overburdened health care system because they were too selfish and irresponsible to do the right thing — to exercise some self-control, at least enough to make the reasonable choices required to end the pandemic. Instead, they’re worsening it for everyone.

More than 130,000 Americans are dead on Donald Trump’s watch. That’s 32,500 times the death toll at Benghazi, or 44 times the 9/11 attacks. The United States now has the worst rate of new coronavirus infections in the world, also on Trump’s watch and indeed directly attributable to the president’s twisted, malicious, selfish insistence upon prematurely reopening the economy. Russia, meanwhile, reportedly paid bounties to Taliban fighters for killing American soldiers and Trump has yet to condemn his paymaster Putin, much less call for retaliatory sanctions. These are only the most recent tentpole news stories, not even taking into consideration hundreds of other examples of rank villainy, as well as the 20,000 lies this president has told since Inauguration Day. Yet somehow, amid all this, Trump is miraculously polling in the low 40s.

Why? The American nervous breakdown.

Presidents have always set the tone for the rest of the country. Donald Trump’s continued insistence on reinforcing his racist, exclusionary, vindictive, obnoxious, necrotic and ultimately self-defeating brand is driving the nation toward a cultural and societal breaking point, and the gravitational pull of this decline seems to be strengthening by the day. Around 30 years ago, Trump stopped trying to build things and instead chose to build the only thing he’s “good” at building: the Trump brand. From the early 1990s onward, he’s been all about the things that compose his public persona, and he’ll never deviate from that, even if he kills thousands of Americans while destroying the economy in the process.

Inside his warped one-track mind, the Trump brand will always take priority over everything else, and ever since March, that brand has been in direct conflict with the reality of the pandemic.

At some point earlier in the year, Trump was faced with a critical choice, as he saw it: either to make decisions that benefit the nation, or to prioritize his own brand with an eye on re-election. He could tell the truth about the seriousness of the virus and the difficult, sometimes painful things we’d have to do to flatten the curve, or he could continue to ignore all that while, like the mayor in “Jaws,” downplaying the threat because it doesn’t mesh with his always winning, always great, always tremendous brand.

Consequently, Trump chose to vilify responsible actions like staying home, mask-wearing and social distancing — characterizing those things as us-versus-them propositions, politicizing the crisis, and sending the message to his 40-percenters that this was all about the Democrats trying to destroy Trump. In a June interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump actually said that mask-wearing was meant to “signal disapproval of him.” No, it’s actually about not getting the virus or spreading it to other people, but facts are irrelevant when confronted by the Trump brand, which mandates that all actions by Americans land in one of two categories: pro-Trump or anti-Trump. There’s no such thing as a “nothing to do with Trump” category. Not to him.

Trump’s nihilistic approach to the worst crisis of our time, which now includes pretending the virus doesn’t exist other than as a vehicle to demonize his enemies, is short-circuiting the wiring inside the heads of his Red Hat fanboys, who are now witnessing their own people succumbing to the virus and trying to somehow square this brutal reality with the “everything’s fine!” attitude coming from their addled messiah. No wonder they’re losing their shpadoinkle — again, facts and Trump-fiction are colliding in their heads and they’re powerless to recalibrate their bullshit detectors. The results, as we’ve all observed, have been explosive.

As long as the president relentlessly ejaculates screechy all-caps grievances into the atmosphere, his weirdly impressionable fans will continue to be inspired to do the same. As long as he markets in obvious lies and ludicrous conspiracy theories, his fans will continue to buy as fact every word emerging from a place of (undeserved and unearned) authority. As long as he sets an example of racism and misogyny, his fans will continue to reject the values of tolerance and empathy. Indeed, the Trump brand has gone viral and infected 40 percent of us, who won’t easily return to the land of reality and responsibility any time soon. This is entirely by design. Trump understands the power of the Oval Office. Trump thrives on chaos and manufactures it. He both expects and requires that his followers adopt his corrosive behavior, not unlike sports fans wearing the colors of their favorite team. And they’ve become so intensely loyal to the brand that they’re losing what’s left of their minds to protect and defend it.

As for the rest of us, we all feel like we’re leaning too far back in our chairs, almost falling over but not quite — that queasy feeling of impending doom, compacted between intense stress over our personal health and our personal finances, not knowing whether outside interference with the election combined with Trump’s attempts to cheat will give us four more years of this national madness. The frenetic uncertainty we’re enduring shouldn’t be exacerbated by the existence of an unstable tyrant in the White House, but it is.

Trump’s destabilizing and omnipresent existence, and especially the power this Mad King possesses, is the prime catalyst for this national nervous breakdown. There’s one last remaining treatment: We must find the collective strength to electorally humiliate Trump and his brand out of existence. He must be resoundingly toppled in November. The alternative is unthinkable, but it could involve an eventual President Kanye West or President Joe Exotic at some point in our lifetimes — a possibility as inconceivable today as “President Donald Trump” was five or 10 years ago.

Trump supporters’ COVID trutherism is built on the same template conservatives have used to deny science for decades

July 7, 2020 By Amanda Marcotte, Salon- Commentary

The worldwide conspiracy is vast — so vast that most of the world’s scientists, journalists and political leaders are in on it. Somehow, in all this time, not a single one of the hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of conspirators has grown a conscience and decided to blow the whistle on the conspiracy. Their goal? To ruin everything that right-wing America holds dear: the nuclear family, NFL football, needlessly enormous vehicles, the specials menu at Hooters.

To accomplish this dastardly goal, the conspiracy will fabricate a worldwide threat. They will falsify the data and use the power of institutions like governments and universities and scientific journals to perpetuate this hoax, tricking billions of people into believing this threat is real and needs a drastic response. The only people in the world who see through the hoax are right-wing Americans, of course, who know what lengths the “socialist left” will go to in order to destroy Mom and apple pie.

Coronavirus denialism has, in the period of a few short months, become one of the most serious political problems in our nation. It’s a major obstacle to both containing the virus and reviving the economy, which can’t happen until the virus is contained.

Coronavirus denialism isn’t just flourishing on social media, but emanating from both right-wing media and from Republican leaders, most notably Donald Trump. Over the weekend, the president declared that “99 percent” of coronavirus cases are “totally harmless,” a claim that isn’t just false but part of a larger pattern of Trump’s statements suggesting that the threat of the virus is being faked in order to harm him politically.

In other words, it’s a conspiracy theory, one that dates at least back to February, when Trump claimed that fears of the coronavirus were a “new hoax” designed by Democrats to ruin him.

The rapid spread of this conspiracy theory is puzzling, especially as it requires many leaps of faith, including the belief that literally millions of professionals who don’t know each other — scientists, journalists, government employees, health care providers and so on — are working to perpetuate this hoax.

There’s a simple reason why right-wing America was so quick to rally around a conspiracy theory that’s so utterly preposterous. They spent years training themselves by indulging in climate-change denialism.

It’s not a stretch to say that climate-change denialism and coronavirus denialism are basically the same conspiracy theory. In fact, it often seems like coronavirus denialists have simply copied and pasted their talking points about climate change and adjusted the wording a bit to be about virus spread instead of carbon emissions.

But the basic parameters are the same: a worldwide conspiracy, threats that are invented or exaggerated for supposed political gain, a sinister hidden agenda — whether that’s bringing down capitalism or ending Trump’s presidency.

The content of coronavirus denialism can be somewhat diverse. This article from the New York Times chronicling the struggles of nurses to convince family and friends that the coronavirus is a real threat gives a good overview of the range of different flavors. Some folks insist the virus isn’t real at all. Some accept that it’s real but believe the danger of death or serious injury is being wildly exaggerated. Some deny that it’s as communicable as public health officials believe. Some claim that deaths from other causes are being falsely attributed to the virus.

We see the same kind of diversity in the world of climate-change denialism. At first, conservatives flat-out denied that climate change or “global warming” was even happening. But as evidence for changing temperatures grew, the flavors of denialism did too, with some denialists claiming it was just a natural fluctuation not attributable to humans, others saying that the effects wouldn’t be so bad, and still others saying it was too late to do anything about it so we should just give up.

What holds all these flavors of denialism together is the conspiracy theory undergirding them: The people raising the alarm about this problem are in cahoots with each other, and have ulterior motives.

Climate-change denialists have long held that progressives, and the scientists and world leaders who supposedly share their radical agenda, aren’t really concerned about species loss or rising sea levels or the devastating effects on poor people or any of that. Instead, they argue, these concerns are being faked to create a justification for an all-out assault on capitalism and “freedom.”

Similarly, coronavirus denialists argue that health care workers and scientists warning about the coronavirus are insincere, but instead are part of a larger — again, worldwide! — movement to take down Trump by making him look bad.

The rhetoric between the two forms of denialism is almost comically similar.

In September, Fox News host Laura Ingraham declared that teenage climate-change activists were part of a sinister plot to seize control of “our economy, our way of life, our way of transport, how many children you want to have.”

In May, she made the same arguments about recommendations to wear face masks to slow the coronavirus spread, claiming it was about “control over large populations” that is “achieved through fear and intimidation and suppression of free thought.”

In case the link wasn’t obvious, Ingraham made it herself, saying, “They’ll say this whole mask thing is settled science, just like they do with climate change.”

It’s not possible that both things are just settled science, of course. It’s all just a massive conspiracy!

It’s the same story with Fox News superstar Tucker Carlson, who argued last September that climate strikes are “not about the environment” but are a left-wing scam meant to create “an emergency big enough to justify grabbing more power.”

Carlson copy-pasted those same arguments to deny the dangers of the coronavirus months later, claiming that the scientific evidence that it’s dangerous and communicable is overblown, and being exaggerated by people who are hungry for “power” and want to see Americans following “orders.”

Both climate change and coronavirus denialism are given a boost by the tribalist politics of right-wing America. For decades now, one of the ways for conservatives to indicate their skepticism of climate change and fealty to the right was to buy giant, gas-guzzling SUVs and trucks, making quite clear to anyone looking that they don’t care one fig about your fears of carbon emission.

The same logic is driving the anti-mask phenomenon, where some of the most fiercely loyal Trump supporters make a big show out of refusing wear a mask, because they don’t care one fig about your fear of catching a potentially deadly virus.

It was clever of Trump and his media followers to encourage his supporters not to wear masks. That kind of showy public defiance has helped normalize coronavirus denialism, and exerted pressure on other conservatives to follow suit to show their tribal loyalties. It serves the same function as mocking people for driving fuel-efficient vehicles did, using peer pressure to get people on board with a right-wing conspiracy theory.

Unfortunately, as we’ve seen with climate-change conspiracy theories, once they take hold, it’s very hard to pry people free from their delusional beliefs. If you confront them with the evidence that the threat is real, they simply move to claiming it’s overblown. George Soros will probably be blamed. Or they’ll come up with excuses for why they personally won’t be affected and so shouldn’t care. Or they’ll just shift to casting aspersions on the motives of people who do care, whether that’s Greta Thunberg or Dr. Anthony Fauci, accusing them of being tools or power-hungry schemers. They’ll embrace any view, really, except admitting that the problem we’re all facing is real and that yes, we have to do something about it.

Earth's Magnetic Field Could Be Changing Much Faster Than We Ever Realised

(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Flickr/CC BY 2.0)
NATURE

DAVID NIELD
8 JULY 2020

The Earth's magnetic field flips, every few hundred thousand years or so on average, which means magnetic north becomes magnetic south and vice versa (the planet doesn't actually turn upside down). New research suggests this change of direction can happen up to 10 times faster than previously thought.

That's big news for scientists studying how the magnetic field shifts affect life on Earth, how our planet has evolved over time, and how we might be better able to predict the next reversal in the coming years.

Past palaeomagnetic studies have shown that the magnetic field could change direction at up to 1 degree a year, but the latest study suggests that movements of up to 10 degrees annually are possible.

That's based on detailed computer simulations of the outer core made of nickel and iron some 2,800 kilometres (1,740 miles) below Earth's surface, which controls our magnetic field.

"We have very incomplete knowledge of our magnetic field prior to 400 years ago," says geophysicist Chris Davies from the University of Leeds in the UK.

"Since these rapid changes represent some of the more extreme behaviour of the liquid core, they could give important information about the behaviour of Earth's deep interior."

Davies and his colleague Catherine Constable from the University of California San Diego combined their computer modelling with a recently published timeline of Earth's magnetic field over the past 100,000 years, and found a close match between the other study and their own predictions.

Changes in our planet's magnetic field leave traces in sediment, lava flows, and even human-made objects, though some educated guesswork is still required when it comes to working out how it's shifting and over what period of time.

Quicker changes in direction seem to coincide with a local weakening of the magnetic field, the new research found. One shift in particular was highlighted: a movement of 2.5 degrees per year 39,000 years ago, right after the most recent Laschamp excursion flip, when the Earth's magnetic field was weakened around the west coast of Central America.

"Understanding whether computer simulations of the magnetic field accurately reflect the physical behaviour of the geomagnetic field as inferred from geological records can be very challenging," says Constable.

"But in this case we have been able to show excellent agreement in both the rates of change and general location of the most extreme events across a range of computer simulations."

Earth's magnetic field not only helps us get from A to B with a compass (or a smartphone), it also keeps us protected from the weathering effects of space and solar radiation. You might not realise it, but the magnetic poles are always wandering about.

Knowing more about how these shifts and flips are happening – and at what speed – is going to be vital for everything from reconfiguring satellites to dealing with the changes in radiation exposure that might result from a reversal of the field.

We're learning all the time though: about how frequent these reversals are, and now, how fast they are too. The researchers hope that further simulations might give us clues about where best to look in terms of making field recordings on the state of the magnetic field over time.

"Further study of the evolving dynamics in these simulations offers a useful strategy for documenting how such rapid changes occur and whether they are also found during times of stable magnetic polarity like what we are experiencing today," says Constable.

The research has been published in Nature Communications.

US formally starts withdrawal from WHO

TRUMP EMBRACES JOHN BIRCH ANTI UN / NWO CONSPIRACY

THE STUPIDITY OF THIS MOVE IS BEST UNDERSTOOD AS BEING COUNTER

TO THE PRINCIPLES OF THE USA THAT FUNDED AND CREATED WHO

(John Moore/Getty Images)

Ignoring Outrage, Trump Officially Pulls US Out of WHO During Virus Crisis
SHAUN TANDON, AFP
8 JULY 2020

President Donald Trump on Tuesday formally started the withdrawal of the United States from the World Health Organization, making good on threats to deprive the UN body of its top funding source over its response to the coronavirus.

Public health advocates and Trump's political opponents voiced outrage at the departure from the Geneva-based body, which leads the global fight on maladies from polio to measles to mental health - as well as COVID-19, at a time when cases have again been rising around the world.

After threatening to suspend the US$400 million in annual US contributions and then announcing a withdrawal, the Trump administration has formally sent a notice to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, a State Department spokesperson said.

The withdrawal of the key WHO founding member is effective in one year - July 6, 2021. Joe Biden, Trump's presumptive Democratic opponent in November elections, vowed he would immediately end the pullout if he won the White House.

"Americans are safer when America is engaged in strengthening global health. On my first day as President, I will rejoin the WHO and restore our leadership on the world stage," Biden wrote on Twitter.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus responded to the news with a one-word tweet - "Together!" - as he linked to a discussion by US health experts on how leaving the global body could impede efforts to prevent future pandemics.

In line with conditions set when the WHO was set up in 1948, the United States can leave within one year but must meet its remaining assessed financial obligations, UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.

'Total control'

In late May, Trump said that China exerted "total control" over the WHO and accused the UN body led by Tedros, an Ethiopian doctor and diplomat, of failing to implement reforms.

Blaming China for the coronavirus, Trump, a frequent critic of the UN, said the United States would redirect funding "to other worldwide and deserving, urgent, global public health needs."

Democratic lawmakers have accused Trump of seeking to deflect criticism from his handling of the pandemic in the United States, which has suffered by far the highest death toll of any nation despite the president's stated hope that the virus will disappear.

"To call Trump's response to COVID chaotic and incoherent doesn't do it justice," said Senator Robert Menendez, the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee.

"This won't protect American lives or interests - it leaves Americans sick and America alone," he said.

Representative Ami Bera, himself a physician, said that the United States and World Health Organization had worked "hand in hand" to eradicate smallpox and nearly defeat polio.

"Our cases are increasing," Bera said of COVID-19. "If the WHO is to blame: why has the US been left behind while many countries from South Korea to New Zealand to Vietnam to Germany return to normal?"

Even some of Trump's Republican allies had voiced hope that he was exerting pressure rather than making a final decision to abandon the World Health Organization.

The investigative news outlet ProPublica reported last month that most of Trump's aides were blindsided by the WHO withdrawal announcement, which he made during an appearance about China.

The Trump administration has said that the WHO ignored early signs of human-to-human transmission in China, including warnings from Taiwan - which, due to Beijing's pressure, is not part of the UN body.

While many public health advocates share some criticism of the WHO, they question what other options the world body had other than to work with China, where COVID-19 was first detected late last year in the city of Wuhan.

The anti-poverty campaign ONE said the United States should work to reform, not abandon, the WHO.

"Withdrawing from the World Health Organization amidst an unprecedented global pandemic is an astounding action that puts the safety of all Americans the world at risk," it said.

© Agence France-Presse

The United States has formally started its withdrawal from the World Health Organization,
whose logo is seen here at its Geneva headquarters Fabrice COFFRINI AFP/File

Washington (AFP)

Issued on: 07/07/2020 -

President Donald Trump has formally started the withdrawal of the United States from the World Health Organization, making good on threats over the UN body's response to the coronavirus, officials said Tuesday.

The United States is the largest financial contributor to the WHO -- which leads the fight on global maladies from polio to measles to mental health -- but it has increasingly been in Trump's crosshairs as the coronavirus takes a heavy toll.

After threatening to suspend the $400 million in annual US contributions and then announcing a withdrawal, Trump has formally informed UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that he has started the US pullout, a State Department spokesperson said.

The withdrawal is effective in one year -- July 6, 2021 -- and Joe Biden, Trump's presumptive Democratic opponent, is virtually certain to stop it and stay in the WHO if he defeats Trump in the November election.

Stephane Dujarric, the spokesman for Guterres, confirmed that the United States gave its notice.

Under conditions set when the United States entered the World Health Organization in 1948, Washington has to give a one-year notice to pull out -- and meet its remaining assessed financial obligations, Dujarric said.

"To call Trump's response to COVID chaotic and incoherent doesn't do it justice," said Senator Robert Menendez, the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, who said that Congress was notified.

"This won't protect American lives or interests -- it leaves Americans sick & America alone," he said.

Trump has accused the World Health Organization of bias toward China, saying it ignored early signs of human-to-human transmission of the deadly virus.

While many public health advocates share some criticism of the WHO, they question what other powers the world body had other than to work with China, where COVID-19 was first detected late last year.

Critics say Trump is seeking to deflect criticism from his own handling of the pandemic in the United States, which has suffered by far the highest death toll of any nation.

© 2020 AFP

Algae Blooms 'Without Historical Precedent' Are Turning US Lakes Green, Study Warns

PHINEAS RUECKERT, AFP
8 JULY 2020

Global warming is turning clear mountain lakes green in the western United States because of an increase in algae blooms "without historical precedent", researchers reported on Tuesday.

The concentration of algae in two remote mountain lakes more than doubled in the past 70 years, researchers at Colorado State University found.

Their results, published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B, highlight the potentially harmful effects of climate change on pristine and remote ecosystems.

"Even in relatively remote lakes located in protected areas... the fingerprint of human perturbation of Earth System is evident," lead researcher Isabella Oleksy of Colorado State University told AFP.

(AFP Photo/Isabelle Oleksy)

"Rapid warming of high elevation environments has resulted in the rapid acceleration and dominance of green algae, which until recently were found in low abundance in these lakes."

The team of scientists led by Oleksy examined algae concentrations in lakes in a mountain range about 100 kilometres (65 miles) from Denver, using a tool called a gravity corer to collect sediment cores without damaging the lakebed.

Drawing on measurements going back to the 1950s, they found "dramatic changes" in algal abundance in the form of green algal blooms called chlorophytes, which thrive in warmer temperatures.

The high level of algae "came as an ecological surprise", Oleksy said.

(AFP Photo/Isabelle Oleksy)

She noted that the amounts of algae documented in the study would more typically be found in highly polluted areas, such as those prone to agricultural run-off, and not in unsullied mountain environments.

"While we documented these changes in two lakes in Colorado, it is likely that this is not an isolated phenomenon," she said.

The results are not a smoking gun, the researchers acknowledged, but point to climate change as driving the excess accumulation of nutrients - such as phosphorus and nitrogen - that cause algal blooms.

In lakes and oceans, algae blooms sicken wildlife if ingested and destabilise aquatic environments by blocking out sunlight, the United States Environmental Protection Agency says on its website.

Fresh water and marine algae blooms have a huge negative economic impact, affecting fisheries, tourism and human health.

© Agence France-Presse

CORONAVIR-USA

US Cases Skyrocket in New COVID-19 Surge, But Deaths Seem Flat. Here's Why

ARIA BENDIX, BUSINESS INSIDER
6 JULY 2020

Those keeping an eye on the US's coronavirus case and death curves will notice a seemingly hopeful trend: New daily cases are skyrocketing, but daily deaths have so far remained relatively flat during this second surge.

Indeed, projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) suggest that this new peak is not expected to be as deadly as the one in April.

That's primarily because increased testing means more mild cases are being confirmed, and young people represent a larger share of coronavirus cases than they did at the start of the outbreak. (We know now that COVID-19 is far less fatal in younger people.)

In Florida, the median age of coronavirus cases has dropped to 35, compared 65 in March. Cases among people under 40 are also rising in Arizona, California, Minnesota, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.

But even if higher case counts don't bring a proportional surge in deaths, there is still reason for alarm. The IHME model projects that the US will see nearly 50,000 new coronavirus deaths from July to October 1. That's close to the number of US combat deaths recorded during World War I.

Put another way, the model expects the US to see 500 or more people die of COVID-19 every day for the next three months, on average. The projection accounts for seasonality, the amount of testing being done, and how often people are interacting with others outside their household.

Currently, more than 128,000 people have been killed by COVID-19 in the US, so the additional projected deaths represent a nearly 40 percent increase. These deaths are expected to arrive as other countries' daily cases and deaths continue to drop precipitously.

And if that wasn't concerning enough, there's still a strong possibility that coronavirus deaths will rise in the near future.

"No one wants to say too early that deaths are not rising. That would really be a mistake," Howard Koh, a professor at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, told Business Insider.

"If somebody is infected and then has the risk of getting sick and being hospitalized and dying – that whole trajectory takes a number of weeks, at least, maybe up to a month or more."
Hospitalizations are on the rise, too

Over the last week, the US has recorded its highest numbers of coronavirus cases to date: around 47,000 daily cases, on average. Thursday marked the peak of the outbreak so far, with more than 55,000 cases. New cases are now rising in the majority of states.

Nationwide deaths, meanwhile, have declined considerably since their peak in April. Over the last week, the US has seen around 560 daily deaths, on average, compared to more than 2,7000 deaths on April 21, the deadliest day of the outbreak.

President Donald Trump has attributed the nation's rising cases to an increase in testing. The US is now testing 59 out of every 100,000 people – a lower rate per-capita than Russia, Iceland, and Australia, but a higher rate per capita than France and the UK.

But the nationwide percentage of COVID-19 tests coming back positive is rising – a sign that increased testing isn't the primary reason for the growth in new cases. Instead, experts suggest that the surge reflects increased transmission, since people have started interacting more without sufficient distancing or mask-wearing.

"We're all speculating that after Memorial Day, it was really the younger people who perhaps reengaged with society too soon and without the proper precautions," Koh said.

Epidemiologists usually predict a two- to three-week lag between when new cases and new deaths are reported. Based on that estimate, the US should already see an uptick in coronavirus deaths. But Koh said a surge is still possible in the coming weeks.

"In places where cases are rising, hospitalizations are increasing, too," Koh said. "We will inevitably see deaths coming in such situations, unfortunately."

Indeed, the daily death total has started to rise in Arizona and Texas. On Tuesday, Robert Redfield, director of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, said hospitalizations were rising in 12 states as well.

"We're starting to see that uptick in deaths coming now," Dr. Theo Vos, who works on the IHME model, told Business Insider.
'All the trends are going the wrong way'

The IHME model accounts for two scenarios: Either social-distancing mandates continue to be lifted and mask use stays the same, or countries pull the emergency break by reinstating mandates if deaths climb too high.

Either way, nationwide deaths are projected to stay relatively flat – but at a number far too high for comfort.

"If you look at other countries, they are down on the other side of the curve. Their cases have dropped dramatically. Their deaths have dropped dramatically," Koh said. "We're nowhere near that right now. All the trends are going the wrong way."

The US is currently seeing around 39 coronavirus deaths for every 100,000 people. Of the 20 countries currently most affected by COVID-19, only the UK has a higher death rate per capita right now: around 66 coronavirus deaths for every 100,000 people. If US deaths continue at the current rate, however, the nation could climb to the top of that ranking.

The IHME predicts that total US deaths could top 175,000 by October. And that doesn't include deaths through the entire fall season, which many experts think will be the worst phase of the outbreak.

"Our model strongly suggests that there's quite a seasonable component to this disease," Vos said. "Come the fall, we expect the pressure on transmission to go up."
Deaths could surge in the fall, but masks can help

Experts worry that a surge of coronavirus cases on top of regular flu outbreaks this fall could place additional strain on hospital capacity, leading to many more deaths that could have been prevented.

"I see too many patients die too early of preventable causes and that's an absolute tragedy," Koh said. "What we can accomplish in the long run depends so much on whether we can maximise the power of prevention based on the tools we have: face masks, social distancing, and hygiene."

The IHME model predicts that about one-third of transmission – or 24,000 deaths – could be prevented if 95 percent of the US population wears masks in public from July to October.

"It is such a cheap and relatively easy option with quite a potential to make a substantial dent in this epidemic," Vos said.

Koh said a national face mask policy is perhaps the most critical step to preventing future coronavirus deaths. At least 21 states have instituted a statewide mask mandate so far.

Texas became the most recent addition to that list on Friday, when Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order requiring masks in counties with 20 or more active COVID-19 cases. Failure to comply with the mandate could result in a fine of up to US$250.

But the specifics of mask requirements differ state to state, and some cities and counties have implemented their own policies.

"We have 50 states going in 50 different directions," Koh said. "This all leads to tremendous confusion among the public about what's the public-health standard."

Under a universal mask mandate, US coronavirus deaths could drop to less than 100 per day by September, according to the IHME model. Koh said it's important for individuals to realise that these aren't just numbers – they're real people's lives.

"When prevention works, absolutely nothing happens. All you have is the miracle of a perfectly normal, healthy day," he said. "Maybe because I'm a physician I've seen that gift forfeited so many times. We need to convey the fragility of our good health right now."

This article was originally published by Business Insider.

THE EVICTIONS BEGIN

Dozens of Palestinians injured as Israeli soldiers, settlers storm West Bank towns

The New Arab Staff
Dozens of Palestinians injured as Israeli soldiers, settlers storm West Bank towns
Israeli soldiers stormed West Bank towns [Getty]

Date of publication: 4 July, 2020

Dozens of Palestinians have been injured as Israeli soldiers and settlers stormed towns in the West Bank, local reports confirmed.

Dozens of Palestinians were injured on Saturday in clashes with Israeli troops in various areas of the West Bank, as Israeli settlers stormed the town of Sila near Jenin in the north of the occupied Palestinian territory.

Palestinian official news agency WAFA said that Israeli forces had raided the village of Zabouba, west of Jenin, injuring dozens of Palestinians who protested the raid with tear gas.

A 17-year-old teenager from the village was also arrested.

Israeli soldiers also stormed the town of Qafin near Tulkarm, also using tear gas and injuring Palestinians. The troops broke into the house of a Palestinian detainee, Sheikh Majdi Ajouli, and destroyed some of his belongings, according to local Palestinian websites.

Read more: Formal annexation won’t change anything on the ground

The 58-year-old has been sentenced to life imprisonment in Israel but was released as part of a prisoner swap in 2014 but re-arrested a year later.

Israeli settlers also entered the town of Sila under the protection of the Israeli army and performed religious rituals.

The town is close to the site of the former settlement of Homesh, which was dismantled by Israel in 2005 as part of a “disengagement plan” which also saw Israel withdraw from the Gaza Strip.

Other Israeli settlers on Saturday set fire to olive trees in the town of Hawara south of the West Bank city of Nablus, according to Ghassan Daghlas, a Palestinian Authority official who monitors settler activity in the northern West Bank.

On Friday, 23 Palestinians were injured in clashes with the Israeli army in Abu Dis near Jerusalem. Palestinian medics said that one Palestinian was shot with live bullets while six had been shot with rubber bullets.

Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli occupation forces have increased recently as Israel prepares to annex one-third of the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley area and major settlement blocs, according to a plan approved by US President Donald Trump and overwhelmingly rejected by Palestinians.

European Union countries have voiced opposition to the annexation plan, saying it would be a violation of international law. The annexation plan, which was originally scheduled for July, has been delayed by the Israeli government, which has given confusing signals about when it will actually be implemented.

As Covid-19 Crisis Continues, UNEP and Global Partners Release 10-Point Plan to Prevent the Next Pandemic
"The science is clear that if we keep exploiting wildlife and destroying our ecosystems, then we can expect to see a steady stream of these diseases jumping from animals to humans in the years ahead."
by Jessica Corbett, staff writer

"Climate change is a force of growing importance that influences the future geographic distribution and abundance of species such as bats, monkeys, and rodents, including those in which zoonotic pathogens often originate," says a new UNEP report. (Photo: nutsiam / Shutterstock.com via Preventing the Next Pandemic)
As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide neared 11.5 million on Monday and the death toll topped 535,000, a new United Nations report detailed trends in human activity that are driving the emergence of zoonotic diseases and offered steps countries can take to prevent future pandemics.

"To prevent future outbreaks, we must become much more deliberate about protecting our natural environment."
—Inger Andersen, UNEP

The report, entitled Preventing the Next Pandemic: Zoonotic Diseases and How to Break the Chain of Transmission (pdf), was released on World Zoonoses Day. Zoonotic diseases, or zoonoses, are infectious diseases that are passed from animals to humans.

"The science is clear that if we keep exploiting wildlife and destroying our ecosystems, then we can expect to see a steady stream of these diseases jumping from animals to humans in the years ahead," U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) executive director Inger Andersen said in a statement announcing the report.

"Pandemics are devastating to our lives and our economies, and as we have seen over the past months, it is the poorest and the most vulnerable who suffer the most," Andersen added. "To prevent future outbreaks, we must become much more deliberate about protecting our natural environment."

Scientists of the UNEP, the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), and the South African Medical Research Council produced the report in partnership with other multilateral agencies and research institutions.

Researchers identified seven human-caused drivers of zoonotic disease emergence: increasing demand for animal protein; unsustainable agricultural intensification; increased use and exploitation of wildlife; unsustainable utilization of natural resources accelerated by urbanization, land use change, and extractive industries; travel and transportation; changes in food supply chains; and climate change.

Our #ZoonosesReport with @ILRI

Identifies 7 trends driving the increasing emergence of zoonotic diseases - including climate change & increased demand for meat.

Provides 10 recommendations to prevent future zoonotic outbreaks.

Learn more: https://t.co/IUTwtf1MlT #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/pJi9LU5HeC

— UN Environment Programme (@UNEP) July 6, 2020

"This report makes many recommendations, all based on the One Health approach, which unites experts from multiple disciplines—public health, animal health, plant health, and the environment—to deliver outcomes that improve the health of people, wildlife, and the planet," Andersen explained in a foreword.

The UNEP summarized 10 key policy recommendations from the report:
Investing in interdisciplinary approaches, including One Health;
Expanding scientific enquiry into zoonotic diseases;
Improving cost-benefit analyses of interventions to include full-cost accounting of societal impacts of disease;
Raising awareness of zoonotic diseases;
Strengthening monitoring and regulation practices associated with zoonotic diseases, including food systems;
Incentivizing sustainable land management practices and developing alternatives for food security and livelihoods that do not rely on the destruction of habitats and biodiversity;
Improving biosecurity and control, identifying key drivers of emerging diseases in animal husbandry and encouraging proven management and zoonotic disease control measures;
Supporting the sustainable management of landscapes and seascapes that enhance sustainable co-existence of agriculture and wildlife;
Strengthening capacities among health stakeholders in all countries; and
Operationalizing the One Health approach in land-use and sustainable development planning, implementation and monitoring, among other fields.

In addition to acknowledging the devastation of Covid-19, the report highlights other recent examples of "headline-hitting and dramatically destructive novel diseases," including zoonotic influenza (Bird Flu), pandemic human influenza (H1N1), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

Addressing zoonotic disease emergence requires addressing its root cause–primarily, the impact of human activities on ecosystems.

On today’s #WorldZoonosesDay, we’re releasing a new #ZoonosesReport with @ILRI - stay tuned for the launch at 19:00 EAT. pic.twitter.com/r8M7LKJQmJ

— UN Environment Programme (@UNEP) July 6, 2020

The report also underscores the importance of addressing "neglected zoonoses" that "are continuously present in affected (mainly impoverished) populations, yet receive much less international attention and funding than emerging zoonotic diseases," such as anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, brucellosis, rabies, cysticercosis (pig tapeworm), echinococcosis (hydatid disease), Japanese encephalitis, leptospirosis, Q fever, rabies, Lassa fever virus, and trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness).

Jimmy Smith, director general of the Kenya-based ILRI, noted in a statement Monday both the elevated risks faced by many African nations and the potential leadership opportunities in terms of future zoonotic pandemics, given population growth and experiences combating diseases in countries across the continent.

"The situation on the continent today is ripe for intensifying existing zoonotic diseases and facilitating the emergence and spread of new ones," Smith said. "But with their experiences with Ebola and other emerging diseases, African countries are demonstrating proactive ways to manage disease outbreaks. They are applying, for example, novel risk-based rather than rule-based approaches to disease control, which are best suited to resource-poor settings, and they are joining up human, animal, and environment expertise in proactive One Health initiatives."

African countries have the potential to lead the way in preventing the spread of new zoonotic diseases—learn more at the UNSG’s daily press briefing today at 12 pm EDT/7 pm EAT: https://t.co/RuyEM6IWSF

— ILRI Director General - Jimmy Smith (@ILRI_JimmySmith) July 6, 2020

The report was welcomed by U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, according to U.N. News.

Echoing both the report and previous remarks he has made during the Covid-19 pandemic, Guterres said that "to prevent future outbreaks, countries need to conserve wild habitats, promote sustainable agriculture, strengthen food safety standards, monitor and regulate food markets, invest in technology to identify risks, and curb the illegal trade in wildlife."

Phoenix Police Shot and Killed a Man Sitting in a Parked Car

DISARM DEMILITARIZE DEFUND THE POLICE

By Hannah Gold

Photo: Matt York/AP/Shutterstock/Matt York/AP/Shutterstock

On Saturday, Phoenix police officers fatally shot a 28-year-old man named James Garcia in a parked car. The killing, which was captured on video, has led to renewed protests against police violence.

The video shows Garcia sitting in his parked car and several cops surrounding him with guns pointed at him. Onlookers can be heard begging cops to lower their weapons, while one officer shouts, “Stop fucking moving, I will fucking shoot you!” Then a series of ten or so gunshots can be heard in quick succession, even as the cops stand before bystanders who are clearly recording the incident. Garcia was later taken to a hospital, where he was pronounced dead. None of the responding officers were injured, nor have they been identified.

Witnesses say they saw what the video makes evident: Cops escalated the situation out of nowhere and proceeded to use lethal force. The police department said in a statement that they were on the scene responding to a 911 caller who said a man who had recently tried to kill him had returned with a knife. They said that during that effort, they noticed Garcia sitting in a car and that when they approached him, he armed himself with a handgun. Garcia’s sister said in a Facebook post, “Phoenix P.D shot my brother who was unarmed sleeping in the car.” The police have not commented on whether Garcia had anything to do with the person they’d been called in on that tip to investigate. A police spokesperson the Guardian questioned about any possible connection replied, “We do not know yet.” Garcia was reportedly sitting in the driveway of a friend’s house when police shot him.

Lisa Wagner, the mother of 26-year-old Shawn Hensen, who considered Garcia to be his best friend, told the Arizona Republic that Garcia was waiting in the driveway while Hansen was getting ready for them to go out. She said she had no idea the police were outside her home until she heard the gunshots. “I keep thinking it’s a bad dream and we’re going to wake up and we’re all going to laugh about this,” she said. “Everyone kind of feels like [the police] murdered Jay.”

Jamaar Williams, a member of Black Lives Matter’s Phoenix chapter, told the Guardian that there was “no justification for what happened,” as Garcia “was boxed in, in a car, by himself; he literally had nowhere to go and you’re holding him at gunpoint, for whose safety? Who is in danger?” Carlos Garcia, a member of the Phoenix City Council, said in a Facebook post, “It does not shock us that despite all the scrutiny from community, Phoenix PD continues to respond violently to calls,” adding, “We cannot allow for dishonest narratives to be built by violent departments.”

The case bears some resemblance to that of Dion Johnson, a Black man killed by an Arizona Department of Public Safety trooper on May 25 after he came upon Johnson asleep in his car. The FBI launched an investigation into Johnson’s case in June. The cop who killed Johnson claimed he fired only after a struggle ensued and he feared being pushed into traffic, but there’s no video of the moments leading up to the shooting. There is, however, footage of the moments after, which shows paramedics on-scene were not permitted to approach Johnson for several minutes as he lay on the ground wounded. The Arizona Republic reported that in 2018, Phoenix police officers fired at more people than any other municipal police department in the country.

On Sunday night, protests convened demanding justice for Garcia and all those profiled and harmed by Arizona law enforcement. The protesters also called for the city to release the officers’ body-cam footage of the incident. Dozens of protesters gathered at the Maryvale Estrella Mountain police station, where they were met with some 30 cops in riot gear, according to social-media reports. On Monday, the police department released part of a body-cam video, but the department said releasing the whole video could interfere with its investigation.

GALACTICUS
Hungriest Black Hole in the Universe Gobbles Up One Sun Per Day

By Kelly Conaboy @kellyconaboy

Photo: Getty Images/Science Photo Libra

How many suns do you think you could eat per day, if challenged? To make it more interesting, let’s say the prize was $50,000 for whoever could eat the most suns. Now that you have incentive, what do you think? One sun, or fewer? If your answer is fewer, well, I hate to tell you that you’ve already been beaten.

In 2018, a team of scientists from the Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the Australian National University discovered the fastest-growing supermassive black hole in the known universe, called J2157. This week, the same team released new research explaining exactly how massive the hole actually is as well as how much it eats to sustain its growth. The answer may shock you.

According to a press release about the research, the black hole is 34 billion times the mass of our sun and about 8,000 times bigger than the black hole at the center of the Milky Way. Research team member Dr. Christopher Onken explained it like this: “If the Milky Way’s black hole wanted to grow that fat, it would have to swallow two-thirds of all the stars in our galaxy.” Damn.

Researcher Dr. Fuyan Bian said they were tipped off to the black hole’s impressive mass back in 2018, when they noticed its rate of growth. “How much black holes can swallow depends on how much mass they already have,” he said. “So for this one to be devouring matter at such a high rate, we thought it could become a new record holder. And now we know.”

And exactly how much can this black hole devour, you’re wondering? According to the release, the hole “gorges on nearly the equivalent of one sun every day.” The hole puts you to shame, it’s true. But please do not feel sad. I have faith that you too can one day eat a sun. Life is about challenging yourself, after all. It’s about growth.

The Arctic Is On Fire, and We Should all Be Terrified

By Bridget Read @bridgetgillard

Photo: Kirill Shipitsin/TASS/Getty Images

Not that you don’t have a lot on your mind already, but may I suggest one additional topic of alarm for consideration: Siberia is on fire.

Siberia, the proverbial coldest place, situated way up at the top of the globe in the Arctic circle, is experiencing record warm temperatures, melting sea ice, and massive wildfires — changes to the environment that even the scientists most urgently tracking the climate crisis didn’t expect to see for another several decades. As New York’s David Wallace-Wells wrote of one town that hit triple-digit temperatures on June 20, “In a world without climate change, this anomaly, one Danish meteorologist calculated, would be a 1-in-100,000-year event.”

“We always expected the Arctic to change faster than the rest of the globe,” one researcher told the Washington Post. “But I don’t think anyone expected the changes to happen as fast as we are seeing them happen.” Siberian towns are experiencing a heat wave throughout the region, with many smashing centuries-old temperature records, records that are now being broken year after year. Scientists say that the area is warming at three times the rate of the rest of the world, due to a phenomenon called “Arctic amplification,” in which melting ice exposes more dark sea and lake waters, turning zones that were once net heat-reflecting into heat-absorbing. And temperatures rise even more.

The effects of that increase are myriad and terrifying. Melting snow creates dry vegetation for wildfires, which have reached record levels this summer, sending out giant plumes of smoke and releasing more greenhouse gases than ever before. Some of these are troublingly named “zombie fires,” which don’t actually go out in winter, but burn under the snow and ice only to erupt in the air once again once the snow melts. People in Siberia are at risk of infrastructure collapse as towns built for the cold strain under new, extreme conditions while the melting of Arctic ice contributes to sea level rise and irregular weather patterns around the world. Perhaps scariest is the potential calamity of total permafrost melting: Permafrost is a layer of continuous ice that covers nearly a quarter of the land mass in the Northern Hemisphere, in which approximately 1,460 billion to 1,600 billion metric tons of organic carbon are trapped. That’s more than twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere. If, with previously stable permafrost subject to never-before-seen heat, it is released, we could reach a tipping point beyond human intervention.

With much of the world consumed by the coronavirus pandemic, and with the United States engaged in a reckoning on racial injustice on top of reaching a record number of virus cases, temperature records in Siberia might seem like a faraway problem. But seemingly separate crises are not so disconnected; studies recently show, for example, how warming affects poor pregnant women in the U.S., and Black expecting mothers in particular, a disparity that will get even worse as warming continues. “When we develop a fever, it’s a sign. It’s a warning sign that something is wrong, and we stop and we take note,” a Colorado-based Arctic researcher said to the Post. “Literally, the Arctic is on fire. It has a fever right now, and so it’s a good warning sign that we need to stop, take note and figure out what’s going on.

Daily chart
Many Americans are ready to question the result of the presidential election

A study finds that a significant share of partisans will support a re-run if they don’t get their way
Graphic detail

Jul 7th 2020

DONALD TRUMP’S odds of being re-elected this November appear to have shrunk dramatically this past month. Our election-forecasting model now gives him just a one-in-ten chance of being re-elected in November. But as his prospects for a legitimate victory have faded, his critics worry that he may try to hold on to power by illegitimate means. Theories about what might happen range from Mr Trump claiming fraud and refusing to leave the White House after his challenger, Joe Biden, is inaugurated next January, to armed insurrection and violence against Democrats.

A new report from the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, a collective of public-opinion researchers and political scientists, suggests that a surprisingly large minority are prepared to question the result of the election in November, and even to support violence. According to their survey of 5,900 Americans, detailed in a report released in June, 18% of respondents (including 29% of Republicans) think it would be appropriate for Mr Trump to refuse to leave office if he claims he lost because of widespread illegal voting. To many, Mr Trump has already set the stage for this in his opposition to postal ballots, tweeting that “Mail in ballots substantially increases the risk of crime and VOTER FRAUD!” (Political scientists who have studied the matter disagree.)

Democrats also have concerns. Nearly 40% of them say they would support a candidate calling for the election to be re-run if they won the nationwide popular vote but lost the majority of electoral-college votes—as was the case when Mr Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. And 57% support a re-run if investigators find credible evidence of foreign interference in the process.

Perhaps most alarming is the finding that roughly two out of every ten partisans (declared Democrats and Republicans) say there would be a “little” or even a “great deal” of justification for violence if their candidate loses. Americans are right to be concerned about the fairness of the electoral process. To remain healthy, democracy needs the buy-in of voters and a willingness by all to accept the result.

These Pictures Capture What Frida Kahlo Was Really Like