Friday, October 02, 2020

Fans arrive like butterflies: Pearl Jam concerts drive tourism, hotel demand

WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY

IMAGE: A PAIR OF PEARL JAM CONCERTS MADE A CASE THAT LARGER, ONE-OFF EVENTS TEND TO GENERATE MORE HOTEL AND TAX REVENUES THAN SPORTING EVENTS, ACCORDING TO NEW RESEARCH FROM WVU... view more
CREDIT: JOSHUA HALL

You could say Seattle came alive with more than an even flow of tourism dollars from a pair of highly-anticipated Pearl Jam concerts, according to rockin' new research by West Virginia University economists.

Dubbed the "Home Shows," two Pearl Jam concerts in August 2018 helped net the seaport city $58 million in additional hotel revenue and $9 million in hotel tax revenue. Compare that to Seattle Mariners baseball games, which generate $140,000 in additional hotel revenue on game days, and the researchers make a clear case for large, one-off events as economic boosters.

The study, "Why Go Home? Pearl Jam's 'Home Shows' & Hotel Demand," was authored by Joshua Hall, chair and professor of economics, and Justin Parker, a 2020 Ph.D. economics graduate. It was published in the Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights.

"While many events that attract visitors do not create large economic impacts (sports, for example) because a portion of the attendees are local and thus just represent spending that would happen anyway, events can generate large impacts under the right conditions," Hall said. "The Pearl Jam 'Home Shows' seem to be the perfect conditions.

"Baseball games are primarily visited by local fans. While there will be some out-of-area visitors who stay overnight, our data show they are small and do not shift demand enough to lead to a large increase in room prices and thus hotel revenue and taxes. The key difference is not between a concert and Mariners games, rather it is between events that draw people in from far away - thus requiring hotel nights - and events that mostly draw locals."

Hall believed the timing of the concert - at summer's end in early August - combined with a planned off-day between the two shows made it ideal for loyal fans wanting to combine a live music experience with a vacation. The shows marked Pearl Jam's first in Seattle - their hometown - in five years and attracted fans from across the globe.

Every Pearl Jam show is also different than the one prior, so fans attending both were guaranteed a unique opportunity from each performance.

Hall and Parker found that the concerts, held Aug. 8 and 10, increased average daily room rates by as much as $144 a night and hotel occupancy to more than 90 percent.

One contributor to the Seattle economy was Hall himself, who attended the concerts with his wife, Sabrina, as part of their 20th wedding anniversary. The couple flew from Clarksburg to Seattle via Chicago, and the plane from Clarksburg was full with everyone wearing Pearl Jam apparel, Hall said.

"Then when I checked into the hotel, I chatted with the manager," he said. "He told me that room rates got up to over $400 a night and that he thought everyone in the hotel was a Pearl Jam fan based on their clothing when they checked in. That made me think - based on what I knew about their ticketing system - that this would be the ideal conditions for large economic impacts.

"In the stands I saw and met people from all over the country and world - many international fans bring their country's flags to hold up - which further led me to realize that I wanted to estimate the impact of these shows on hotel demand and hotel tax revenue."

Hall added that research like this can inform policymakers' decisions regarding permitting and other forms of public support for concerts and cultural events.

By contrast, some sporting events do not result in economic boosts for host cities. The City of Charlotte spent $330,000 on public safety surrounding the 2017 PGA Championship, although the event had no significant impact on hotel revenue and taxes, according to one study. Meanwhile, the City of Seattle estimates each World Cup 2026 game hosted will cost $1.32 million for security. Hall projects the city will only be able to recoup those costs through the hotel tax if most attendees are from outside Seattle.

"Given the uniqueness of Pearl Jam the band and the 'Home Shows,' we argue that this case presents an upper bound of what an event designed to attract tourists can have on hotel demand," Hall said. "Tourism, and consequently hotel demand, are a key component of the economic development strategy of many cities."

Citation: "Why go home? Pearl Jam's 'Home Shows' & hotel demand"

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news re

Marketing study investigates impact of Viagra TV ads on birth rates

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT DALLAS

Research News

IMAGE: MARKETING RESEARCHERS FOUND THAT AN INCREASE IN ADVERTISING OF ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION DRUGS CONTRIBUTED TO MORE TOTAL BIRTHS IN MASSACHUSETTS. view more
CREDIT: UT DALLAS

Many marketing studies have examined the impact of direct-to-consumer advertising of pharmaceuticals on sales and market shares. But in a new study, a researcher from The University of Texas at Dallas wanted to know whether drug advertising might have some unintended, population-level health consequences.

"A colleague and I were brainstorming, and I wondered, 'Can Viagra ads result in more babies?'" said Dr. Tongil "TI" Kim, assistant professor of marketing in the Naveen Jindal School of Management and one of the study's co-authors. "With a more or less fixed gestation period, my colleague and I knew that we could compare advertising amount and birth rates after 10 months."

In the study, published online April 28 and in the August print issue of the Journal of Marketing Research, Kim and Dr. Diwas KC of Emory University explored the impact of direct-to-consumer advertising of erectile dysfunction (ED) drugs on birth rate at the population level.

The researchers examined local television commercials for three drug brands: Viagra (sildenafil), Levitra (vardenafil) and Cialis (tadalafil). They compared advertising data with hospital data from Massachusetts between 2001 and 2010, and with 15 million birth certificate records from the U.S. between 2000 and 2004.

They used a type of quasi field experiment -- a way to show causality in economics and marketing -- to address many potential confounding factors. They examined two sets of adjacent rural ZIP codes with similar characteristics, where one side received more ED drug ads than the other side due to discontinuity in TV ad market delineation. In other words, they compared two sets of ZIP codes that are very similar in terms of demographics and socioeconomic factors except for the level of ED drug ads.

Additionally, the researchers considered other variables that might have affected increased birth rates during these time periods, such as inclement or cold weather. They also considered other advertising, over-the-air signal quality and the possibility of couples moving across the television markets' geographic borders, and determined those factors were not major concerns in the study's setting.

In further robustness checks, the researchers replaced ED drug advertising with advertising for an unrelated drug category and found no impact on birth rates. Also, they did not find significant effects in earlier months as gestation would take at least nine months.

The researchers found that in ZIP codes where more ED drug ads ran than in neighboring ZIP codes, the birth rates were higher 10 months after the advertising aired. Their results showed that a 1% increase in ED drug advertising contributed to an increase of 0.04% to 0.08% of total births. They also found the ads particularly increased births among families with children.

The researchers believe that some viewers watched the ads and purchased ED drugs to improve their chances of achieving pregnancy (consumption effect), while others may have been affected by the suggestive nature of the ads without purchasing ED drugs (media effect).

"As for the content of the ads, many of the ED drug commercials during the data period featured suggestive ad copy and content," Kim said, "which resulted in some people deeming ED drug ads inappropriate for family viewing, as demonstrated by a legislative bill that was introduced in 2009 calling to ban ED drug ads on TV between 6 a.m. and 10 p.m."

Further analysis using Google Trends data indicated that more frequent ED drug advertising was associated with higher pregnancy-intent keyword searches.

One popular hypothesis for the increased birth rates focused on older male ad viewers taking the pill and fathering more babies, Kim said. The data, however, did not show an increase in the average age of the fathers. It is possible this effect plays a role equally across different age groups, he said.

An unexpected finding was a stronger effect from the ads on birth rates in regions with lower incomes.

"It was surprising. During our data period, the majority of ED drug consumers paid the full price out of their own pockets because ED drugs were generally not covered by insurance in the U.S.," Kim said.

Based on the increased Google searches with intent to get pregnant and higher birth rates in lower-income areas that cannot be solely explained by the consumption effect, the researchers believe the media effect is possible.

"Can mere TV content affect fertility decisions? Many studies have found this. For example, the launch of TV shows in Brazil about female working professionals was linked to a substantial decrease in the nation's birth rates," Kim said.

The researchers said their study could provide companies a framework to monitor unintended health consequences in relation to the launch and marketing of pharmaceutical goods. Companies should be aware that, beyond simply increasing sales and market shares, marketing activities may have unforeseen spillover effects on societal outcomes, especially if the products are related to health or wellness.

"This is not only a responsible thing to do, but it can also create creative marketing opportunities," Kim said. "For example, companies selling infant-related medicines and goods like children's cold medicine, baby car seats or diapers might use ED drug ads as an additional market variable to better anticipate and predict local pregnancy rates 10 months later -- essentially their market potential -- and improve upon jointly deploying marketing and distribution resources across various regions."

The study also has implications for policymakers. Kim said they should be mindful of the multifaceted and even unexpected outcomes when considering whether to allow direct-to-consumer advertising of pharmaceuticals -- something that only is permitted in the U.S. and New Zealand. The Food and Drug Administration relaxed restrictions on direct-to-consumer advertising in 1997. Since then, TV advertising for pharmaceuticals increased substantially, with more than 80 drug ads estimated to be aired every hour on U.S. television.

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New research sheds light on the reluctance of farmers to adopt new technologies

UNIVERSITY OF KENT

Research News

The paper, published in Science Direct, examined the relationship between attitudes towards risk among small-scale aquafarmers in Ghana and the time they take to adopt new technologies that reduce traditional risks, including; poor weather conditions, aquatic predators and poor hygiene.

The researchers conducted a series of psychological experiments with aquafarmers in 30 villages in four regions in southern Ghana to measure their aversion to risk and willingness to take gambles. They also recorded the aquafarmers' adoption of three innovative technologies recently introduced to Ghana: predator-proof floating cages for fish; a nutrient-rich fish feed; and a fast-growing, disease-resistant breed of tilapia fish.

Results showed that aversion to traditional production risks accelerated the adoption of all three technologies. However, adoption of floating cages was slower due to the significant upfront financial investment required, making small-scale experimentation with the technology impractical. The study also found that once aquafarmers in a community have started using the cages, the aversion by others to take the risk was further reduced.

Based on their findings, the study's authors advocate providing practical information about new agricultural technologies and information about positive returns from their adoption with the help and encouragement of regional extension agents to encourage the adoption of new agricultural technologies by small-scale farmers in developing countries.

Dr Adelina Gschwandtner, Senior Lecturer in Economics and Principle Investigator, said: 'These findings may have significant consequences beyond Africa and onto the global agricultural sector. Addressing traditional perceptions with this new understanding of the potential to reduce risk by adopting new ideas, methods, and technologies, may broaden how business ventures are viewed and conducted in the future. This in turn may help agricultural ventures in developing nations become secure and allow them to flourish.'

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The study, 'The effects of risk and ambiguity aversion on technology adoption: Evidence from aquaculture in Ghana' was published in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

The papers' authors were:

University of Kent's School of Economics:
Dr Christian Crentsil, Lecturer in Economics
Dr Zaki Wahhaj, Reader in Economics
Dr Adelina Gschwandtner, Senior Lecturer in Economics

New COVID test doesn't use scarce reagents, catches all but the least infectious

Addresses major testing need in developing world; also in US, where reagent supplies are again dwindling

UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT

Research News

IMAGE: JASON BOTTEN AND EMILY BRUCE, WHO PIONEERED A STREAMLINED COVID-19 TEST THAT DOESN'T USE SCARCE CHEMICALS, IN THEIR RESEARCH LAB IN THE UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT'S LARNER COLLEGE OF MEDICINE. THE... view more
CREDIT: BRIAN JENKINS

A major roadblock to large scale testing for coronavirus infection in the developing world is a shortage of key chemicals, or reagents, needed for the test, specifically the ones used to extract the virus's genetic material, or RNA.

A team of scientists at the University of Vermont, working in partnership with a group at the University of Washington, has developed a method of testing for the COVID-19 virus that doesn't make use of these chemicals but still delivers an accurate result, paving the way for inexpensive, widely available testing in both developing countries and industrialized nations like the United States, where reagent supplies are again in short supply.

The method for the test, published Oct. 2 in PLOS Biology, omits the step in the widely used reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test where the scarce reagents are needed.

92% accuracy, missing only lowest viral loads

The accuracy of the new test was evaluated by a team of researchers at the University of Washington led by Keith Jerome, director of the university's Molecular Virology Lab, using 215 COVID-19 samples that RT-PCR tests had shown were positive, with a range of viral loads, and 30 that were negative.

It correctly identified 92% of the positive samples and 100% of the negatives.

The positive samples the new test failed to catch had very low levels of the virus. Public health experts increasingly believe that ultra-sensitive tests that identify individuals with even the smallest viral loads are not needed to slow spread of the disease.

"It was a very positive result," said Jason Botten, an expert on pathogenic RNA viruses at the University of Vermont's Larner College of Medicine and senior author on the PLOS Biology paper. Botten's colleague Emily A. Bruce is the paper's first author.

"You can go for the perfect test, or you can use the one that's going to pick up the great majority of people and stop transmission," Botten said. "If the game now is focused on trying to find people who are infectious, there's no reason why this test shouldn't be front and center, especially in developing countries where there are often limited testing programs because of reagent and other supply shortages."

Skipping a step

The standard PCR test has three steps, while this simpler version of the standard test has only two, Botten said.

"In step 1 of the RT-PCR test, you take the swab with the nasal sample, clip the end and place it in a vial of liquid, or medium. Any virus on the swab will transfer from the swab into the medium," he said. "In step 2, you take a small sample of the virus-containing medium and use chemical reagents, the ones that are often in short supply, to extract the viral RNA. In step 3, you use other chemicals to greatly amplify any viral genetic material that might be there. If virus was present, you'll get a positive signal."

The new test skips the second step.

"It takes a sample of the medium that held the nasal swab and goes directly to the third, amplification step," Botten said, removing the need for scarce RNA extraction reagents as well as significantly reducing the time, labor and costs required to extract viral RNA from the medium in step 2.

Botten said the test is ideally suited to screening programs, in both developed and developing countries, since it is inexpensive, takes much less processing time and reliably identifies those who are likely to spread the disease.

Its low cost and efficiency could extend testing capacity to groups not currently being tested, Botten said, including the asymptomatic, nursing home residents, essential workers and school children. The standard RT-PCR test could be reserved for groups, like health care workers, where close to 100% accuracy is essential.

An influential pre-print points way to widespread adoption of test

The two-step test developed by the University of Vermont team first caught the attention of the scientific community in March, when preliminary results that accurately identified six positive and three negative Vermont samples were published as a preprint in bioRxiv, an open access repository for the biological sciences. The preprint was downloaded 18,000 times -- in its first week, it ranked 17th among 15 million papers the site had published -- and the abstract was viewed 40,000 times.

Botten heard from labs around the world who had seen the preprint and wanted to learn more about the new test.

"They said, 'I'm from Nigeria or the West Indies. We can't test, and people's lives are at stake. Can you help us?'"

Botten also heard from Syril Pettit, the director of HESI, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute, a non-profit that marshals scientific expertise and methods to address a range of global health challenges, who had also seen the preprint.

Pettit asked Botten to join a think tank of likeminded scientists she was organizing whose goal was to increase global testing capacity for COVID-19. The test developed by the University of Vermont and University of Washington teams would serve as a centerpiece. To catalyze a global response, the group published a call to action in EMBO Molecular Medicine.

And it took action, reaching out to 10 laboratories in seven countries, including Brazil, Chile, Malawi, Nigeria and Trinidad/Tobago, as well as the U.S. and France, to see if they would be interested in giving the two-step test a trial run. "Universally, the response was yes," Pettit said.

The outreach led to a new HESI program called PROPAGATE. Each of the labs in the PROPAGATE Network will use the two-step test on a series of positive and negative samples sent to them by the University of Washington to see if they can replicate the results the university achieved.

The study has already shown promising results. One of the labs in Chile has also used the test on its own samples from the community and got accurate results.

Assuming all goes well, Pettit and her colleagues at the University of Vermont and the University of Washington as well as scientists from the 10 partner sites plan to publish the results.

"The goal is the make the two-step test accessible to any lab in the world facing these hurdles and see a broad uptake," she said.

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Smartphone surveys find a connection between daily spiritual experiences and well-being

Sociologists use twice-a-day texts to examine whether spirituality's link with satisfaction is stable or momentary

BAYLOR UNIVERSITY

Research News

Using smartphone check-ins twice a day for two weeks, sociologists in a national study have found a link between individuals' daily spiritual experiences and overall well-being, say researchers from Baylor University and Harvard University.

While other studies have found such a connection between spirituality and positive emotions, the new study is significant because frequent texting made it easier to capture respondents' moment-to-moment spiritual experiences over 14 days rather than only one or two points in time, they say.

"This study is unique because it examines daily spiritual experiences -- such as feeling God's presence, finding strength in religion or spirituality, and feeling inner peace and harmony -- as both stable traits and as states that fluctuate," said study co-author Matt Bradshaw, Ph.D., research professor of sociology at Baylor University Institute for Studies of Religion (ISR).

"Because surveys usually capture only one or two points in time, researchers often have to assume that associations between spirituality and positive emotions capture stable traits in respondents rather than momentary states of mind," he said. "But these findings suggest that stable, consistent spiritual experiences as well as short-term periodic ones both serve as resources to promote human flourishing and help individuals cope with stressful conditions."

Additionally, "the prevalence of smartphones makes this sort of 'experience sampling' study doable on a much larger scale than in the past, when pagers or palm pilots were used to trigger data collection," said lead author Blake Victor Kent, Ph.D., Research Fellow of Harvard Medical School/Massachusetts General Hospital and a non-resident scholar at Baylor ISR.

The study -- published in The International Journal for the Psychology of Religion -- uses data from SoulPulse, a project funded by the John Templeton Foundation, to study religion, spirituality and mental and physical well-being. Participants were 2,795 individuals who signed up for the study after learning of it through national media -- including the Associated Press, the Religion News Service and The New Yorker -- and by word of mouth.

Kent said that daily spiritual experiences are measured as one of two types:

* Theistic spiritual experiences examine the degree to which God is experienced as present, available and active in the individual's life using six questions: "I feel God's presence," "I find strength and comfort in my religion or spirituality," "I feel God's love for me directly or through others," "I desire to be closer to God or in union with the divine," "I feel guided by God in the midst of daily activities" and "I feel close to God."

* Non-theistic spiritual experiences assess transcendent feelings not specifically connected to God or a divine being using three questions: "I feel a deep inner peace or harmony," "I am spiritually touched by the beauty of creation" and "I feel thankful for my blessings."

To keep daily surveys short and interesting for participants, 10 to 15 items were pulled from some 100 questions and appeared with varying frequency. They included assessments of depression or positive emotions with such items as: "I feel downhearted and blue," "I feel that life is meaningless," "I am unable to become enthusiastic about anything," "I am feeling happy," "I am feeling that I have a warm and trusting relationship with others" and "I have something important to contribute to society."

Another item asked whether, since the most recent daily survey, the person had experienced a stressful situation such as an argument with a loved one, illness, injury, accident, job stress, financial problems or tragedy.

"The findings indicate, as you would expect, that the wear and tear of daily stressors are associated with increased depressive symptoms and lower levels of flourishing," Kent said. "What this study really contributes is that daily spiritual experiences play an important role as well. Essentially, if you take two people who have equal levels of stress, the one with more spiritual experiences will be less likely to report depressive symptoms and more likely to indicate feelings of flourishing. That's a comparison between two people.

"But what about one person?" he said. "The unique thing about this study is we are able to show that when someone's spiritual experiences vary day to day, the 'above average' days of spiritual experience are associated with better mental well-being than the 'below average' days."

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*The SoulPulse project was developed by study co-author Bradley R.E. Wright, Ph.D., associate professor of sociology of the University of Connecticut and non-resident scholar at Baylor's ISR. Other researchers included W. Matthew Henderson, Ph.D., assistant professor of sociology at Union University; and Christopher G. Ellison, Ph.D., Dean's Distinguished Professor in the department of sociology at The University of Texas at San Antonio and Distinguished Non-resident Senior Scholar at Baylor's Institute for Studies of Religion.

Future climate changes in nature reserves

Bayreuth research: Tropical nature reserves to be particularly affected

UNIVERSITÄT BAYREUTH

Research News

IMAGE: IN THE COTOPAXI NATIONAL PARK, ECUADOR. view more
CREDIT: PHOTO: SAMUEL HOFFMANN.

The Earth's nature reserves are the basis for the preservation of global biodiversity. They are set to be affected by future climate change in very different ways. Detailed local knowledge of climate change impacts can therefore make a significant contribution to the management of protected areas and the preservation of their ecological function. A biogeographic study by the University of Bayreuth in the journal "Diversity and Distributions" draws attention to this fact. It is based on climate forecasts for more than 130,000 nature reserves worldwide.

For their new study, Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein and Dr. Samuel Hoffmann of the Biogeography research group examined a total of 137,735 nature reserves on six continents. Their focus was on the question of what deviations from current climate conditions these areas will be exposed to over the next five decades, and how this will impact local plant and animal species. "Blanket forecasts on climate change are not specific enough to assist in counteracting the threat of further loss of biodiversity. This can only succeed if we know exactly what local climate change - for example in nature reserves - will be caused by global trends. As our study impressively demonstrates, these local effects can be very different, even in neighbouring areas," says Beierkuhnlein.

Particularly severe local climate changes are expected by 2070, especially in protected areas of tropical countries. Today, these are of great importance for the conservation of globally endangered plant and animal species, and are under great pressure because, at the same time, they are being used intensively by humans. These protected areas are located in mountains high above sea level. In mountains, temperatures are expected to rise noticeably as a result of climate change. Consequently, some endangered species will probably try to migrate to higher and therefore cooler mountain regions. Here, the threat to individual species could increase rapidly because fewer resources are available at higher altitudes. "For migratory species, higher mountain regions could prove to be a dead end", Hoffmann explains.

However, the new study also shows that protected areas in which future climate conditions will differ especially from the present have some characteristics that could have a beneficial effect on the conservation of species. They are often very large, have very different landscape profiles, and therefore offer diverse environmental conditions which are little affected by direct human intervention or fragmented by traffic routes. These circumstances favour the adaptation of species, for example through genetic exchange and greater availability of resources. In addition, some species that are forced to leave their current habitats due to climate change may find new habitats in their very neighbourhood thanks to this diversity of landscape. Hence, management that is well informed about local climate changes can help to mitigate the effects of climate change in nature reserves.

Forecasts of global climate change are always fraught with uncertainty. This is why the Bayreuth researchers worked with ten different global models of climate change in their study of nature reserves. In addition, they included two significantly different scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions in their assessments. In each of the nature reserves studied, small square areas measuring around one square kilometre were examined. Characteristic properties of these "cells" were then put into relation with climatic change to be expected on a global scale by 2070. These characteristics include, for example, height above sea level, landscape profile, precipitation and temperature, local flora and fauna, and human intervention. With these investigations, the Bayreuth researchers have succeeded in estimating local climate change effects for very small areas worldwide.

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Climate change responsible for record sea temperature levels, says study

The ocean faces increasing threat from climate change

TAYLOR & FRANCIS GROUP

Research News

Global warming is driving an unprecedented rise in sea temperatures including in the Mediterranean, according to a major new report published by the peer-reviewed Journal of Operational Oceanography.

Data from the European Union's (EU) Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) will increase concerns about the threat to the world's seas and oceans from climate change.

The Ocean State Report reveals an overall trend globally of surface warming based on evidence from 1993 to 2018, with the largest rise in the Arctic Ocean.

European seas experienced record high temperatures in 2018, a phenomenon which the researchers attribute to extreme weather conditions - a marine heat wave lasting several months.

In the same year, a large mass of warm water occurred in the northeast Pacific Ocean, according to the report. This was similar to a marine heatwave - dubbed 'the Blob' - which was first detected in 2013 and had devastating effects on marine life.

Now the study authors are calling for improved monitoring to provide better data and knowledge. They argue this will help countries progress towards sustainable use of seas and oceans which are an essential source of food, energy and other resources.

Findings from the report confirm record rises in sea temperatures

"Changes to the ocean have impacted on these (ocean) ecosystem services and stretched them to unsustainable limits," says Karina von Schuckmann and Pierre-Yves Le Traon, the report's editors.

"More than ever a long term, comprehensive and systematic monitoring, assessment and reporting of the ocean is required. This is to ensure a sustainable science-based management of the ocean for societal benefit."

The Ocean State Report identifies other major strains on the world's seas and oceans from climate change including acidification caused by carbon dioxide uptake from the atmosphere, sea level rise, loss of oxygen and sea ice retreat.

Long-term evidence of global warming outlined in the report includes a decrease over 30 years of up to two days in the period of Baltic Sea ice cover and an acceleration in the global mean sea level rise.

The report highlights that the message from recent EU and global assessments of the state of seas and oceans is 'we are not doing well'. The authors add: "Human society has always been dependent on the seas. Failure to reach good environmental status for our seas and oceans is not an option."

Solving global challenges using insect research

INSTITUT DE RECHERCHE POUR LE DÉVELOPPEMENT

Research News

IMAGE: COLOBATHRISTIDE BUG (ORDERED HETEROPTERA), PILCHICOCHA (ECUADOR). view more
CREDIT: © IRD - OLIVIER DANGLES - FRANÇOIS NOWICKI / UNE AUTRE TERRE

To achieve food security, to promote peace, to ensure access to quality education and clean water and sanitation, to improve health, to take action to combat climate change, to restore ecosystems and to reduce inequalities: these are some of the 17 SDG identified by the UN to address the global challenges faced by societies.

Research can be used to achieve these interrelated goals, by not only producing reliable knowledge and data, offering innovative solutions and assessing progress but also in providing some perspective on SDGs.

"We have brought together researchers from many different countries - Germany, Australia, Burkina Faso, Brazil, China, Columbia, Ecuador, the United States, India, Panama, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam - to present original insect research that falls within the area of Sustainability science", emphasised Olivier Dangles (IRD) and Verónica Crespo-Pérez (Pontifical Catholic University of Ecuador, PUCE), coordinators of the special issue published in Current Opinion In Insect Science. "These examples show that research on insects has great potential in tackling today's challenges".

* An overview of games for entomological literacy: the article considers the use of video games in improving the dissemination of knowledge about major insect-related challenges (pollinator decline, managing vectors of disease).

* Insect vectors endosymbionts as solutions against diseases: The authors of this article present new strategies to combat viral diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, in particular a strategy based on the symbiotic bacteria Wolbachia, and how mosquitoes themselves can help us to control the diseases they transmit.

* Orienting insecticide research in the tropics: Using a bibliometric analysis of insecticides, the researchers identify the research topics (bioinsecticides and integrated pest management) that should be promoted to ensure the protection of sustainable crops.

* Insect-inspired architecture to build sustainable cities: Entomologists describe the functional principles of insect structures, which may inspire the construction of more sustainable cities (particularly in terms of multifunctionality, energy saving and sustainability).

* Insects for peace: In countries recovering from conflict, agricultural development should focus on restoring food production by smallholder farmers and improving their socioeconomic position. The authors of the article describe the example of the reintegration of ex-combatants of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia as insect producers for livestock farming.

* Moving beyond the distinction between the bright and dark sides of termites: Termites are amongst the main decomposers of matter in tropical ecosystems and have a positive impact on many services for humankind. These insects also act as pests, threatening agriculture and constructions. This article assesses the impact of termites on several sustainable development goals and proposes a reconciliation between the termite's dark and bright sides.

* The importance of insects on land and in water: The authors of this article advocate for increased knowledge of the role played by insects in tropical terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, whose diversity and distribution are affected by global changes.

* Unsung heroes: fixing multifaceted sustainability challenges through insect biological control. In this article, researchers explain how biological control contributes to food security, poverty alleviation, human well-being and environmental preservation.

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New model examines how societal influences affect US political opinions

Tool could be used to simulate interventions on issues such as polarization

NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY

Research News

EVANSTON, Ill. -- Northwestern University researchers have developed the first quantitative model that captures how politicized environments affect U.S. political opinion formation and evolution.

Using the model, the researchers seek to understand how populations change their opinions when exposed to political content, such as news media, campaign ads and ordinary personal exchanges. The math-based framework is flexible, allowing future data to be incorporated as it becomes available.

"It's really powerful to understand how people are influenced by the content that they see," said David Sabin-Miller, a Northwestern graduate student who led the study. "It could help us understand how populations become polarized, which would be hugely beneficial."

"Quantitative models like this allow us to run computational experiments," added Northwestern's Daniel Abrams, the study's senior author. "We could simulate how various interventions might help fix extreme polarization to promote consensus."

The paper will be published on Thursday (Oct. 1) in the journal Physical Review Research.

Abrams is an associate professor of engineering sciences and applied mathematics in Northwestern's McCormick School of Engineering. Sabin-Miller is a graduate student in Abrams' laboratory.

Researchers have been modeling social behavior for hundreds of years. But most modern quantitative models rely on network science, which simulates person-to-person human interactions.

The Northwestern team takes a different, but complementary, approach. They break down all interactions into perceptions and reactions. A perception takes into account how people perceive a politicized experience based on their current ideology. A far-right Republican, for example, likely will perceive the same experience differently than a far-left Democrat.

After perceiving new ideas or information, people might change their opinions based on three established psychological effects: attraction/repulsion, tribalism and perceptual filtering. Northwestern's quantitative model incorporates all three of these and examines their impact.

"Typically, ideas that are similar to your beliefs can be convincing or attractive," Sabin-Miller said. "But once ideas go past a discomfort point, people start rejecting what they see or hear. We call this the 'repulsion distance,' and we are trying to define that limit through modeling."

People also react differently depending on whether or not the new idea or information comes from a trusted source. Known as tribalism, people tend to give the benefit of the doubt to a perceived ally. In perceptual filtering, people -- either knowingly through direct decisions or unknowingly through algorithms that curate content -- determine what content they see.

"Perceptual filtering is the 'media bubble' that people talk about," Abrams explained. "You're more likely to see things that are consistent with your existing beliefs."

Abrams and Sabin-Miller liken their new model to thermodynamics in physics -- treating individual people like gas molecules that distribute around a room.

"Thermodynamics does not focus on individual particles but the average of a whole system, which includes many, many particles," Abrams said. "We hope to do the same thing with political opinions. Even though we can't say how or when one individual's opinion might change, we can look at how the whole population changes, on average."

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Subsidized cars help low-income families economically, socially

CORNELL UNIVERSITY

Research News

ITHACA, N.Y. - For one low-income woman, not having a car meant long commutes on public transit with her children in tow, sometimes slogging through cold or inclement weather. But after buying a subsidized car through a Maryland-based nonprofit, she was able to move to a home located farther from bus stops, send her children to better schools and reach less expensive medical services.

"So many different things open up to a person that is mobile," the woman told Nicholas Klein, assistant professor of city and regional planning at Cornell University.

In "Subsidizing Car Ownership for Low-Income Individuals and Households," published in the Journal of Planning Education and Research, Klein reports insights from interviews with 30 people who gained access to inexpensive, reliable cars through the nonprofit Vehicles for Change (VFC).

He found that the cars conferred wide-ranging benefits, not only shortening commutes and opening opportunities for higher-paying jobs, but also dramatically improving quality of life. The recipients of subsidized cars spent more time with family, visited doctors they preferred, shopped for groceries more efficiently, attended more school events and enrolled kids in previously inaccessible after-school enrichment programs.

"For a lot of families, it's a really transformative moment that allows them to move up the economic ladder, to access all sorts of sort of social benefits and to just make their lives easier," Klein said of the access to subsidized cars. "It permeated everyone's lives in all sorts of different ways."

Transportation planners and scholars have debated subsidizing car ownership for decades, and VFC, which has provided more than 6,000 cars in Maryland and Virginia since 1999, is one of only a handful of such programs across the country. Critics say subsidizing cars on a large scale would exacerbate environmental pollution, traffic congestion and sprawl, and impose new cost burdens on car owners.

Klein said his research took a longer, more nuanced view that suggested such answers are "not so clear-cut." Beyond interviewees' experiences with a subsidized car, he also learned about their personal and car-ownership histories.

Most had owned cars before and planned to purchase cars again, typically through used car dealers that Klein called "pernicious." The interviewees had typically paid significantly more for used cars that were less reliable than those provided by VFC, which cost less than $1,000 and passed thorough inspections (through a job training program for formerly incarcerated individuals).

Considering that context, Klein said, scholars and policymakers should be asking not only about the benefits and consequences of having a car, but about the consequences of not making subsidized car ownership available to low-income families.

"What I see is that a lot of low-income households are going out and spending quite a bit more on unreliable used cars, and those cars may be polluting much more," he said.

Klein concluded that subsidized car ownership should be implemented more broadly, along with complementary programs providing subsidized repairs or replacement of older, more polluting and less efficient cars.

Such programs shouldn't come at the expense of longer-term investments in public transit and infrastructure expanding alternatives to cars, Klein said. But that infrastructure takes time to build and can't support everyone living in suburban or rural areas.

"In the meantime, these families are struggling, and we can think about ways to help them while also investing in high-quality public transit, and biking and walking infrastructure," Klein said.

Klein said his research relying on interviews proved valuable in a transportation field that emphasizes quantitative methods - for example, to measure economic outcomes such as how car ownership affects income or employment.

"When we only do that, we miss a lot of important nuance and details and we miss people's voices and stories," he said. "Qualitative research lets us understand the broader scope of effects that we might miss if we only rely on what's in the data, allowing us to see a broader range of possibilities."

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Yan report's claims that SARS-CoV-2 was created in a Chinese lab are misleading, unethical

New Peer Reviews

THE MIT PRESS

Research News

CAMBRIDGE, MA - September 30, 2020--The MIT Press Journal Rapid Reviews: COVID-19 (RRC:19) has openly published the first official scholarly peer reviews of pre-print research from Li-Meng Yan, Shu Kang, Jie Guan, and Shanchang Hu that claims to show that unusual features of the SARS-CoV-2 genome suggest sophisticated laboratory modification rather than natural evolution. Reviewers Robert Gallo, Takahiko Koyama, and Adam Lauring rate the study as misleading and write that the "manuscript does not demonstrate sufficient scientific evidence to support its claims."

Find peer reviews and information about this study at Rapid Reviews website.

While this research has been widely debunked in popular media, scholarly peer review represents a different type of rebuke from the scientific community. The original study was posted on a public pre-print server without the benefit of peer review--a necessary part of the scientific publishing process in which scientists review one another's work, vetting research for accuracy and evaluating methods and evidence. Pre-prints enable researchers to share information quicker, but they have created a need for rapid and transparent peer review to correct misinformation about COVID-19 and to minimize the influence of unverified research.

"While pre-print servers offer a mechanism to disseminate world-changing scientific research at unprecedented speed, they are also a forum through which misleading information can instantaneously undermine the international scientific community's credibility, destabilize diplomatic relationships, and compromise global safety," explains the RR:C19 Editorial Office.

RR:C19 was launched in June 2020 to provide rapid and transparent peer review of COVID-19 pre-prints. When the 'Yan Report' was published in September, RR:C19 quickly sought out peer reviews from world-renowned experts in virology, molecular biology, structural biology, computational biology, vaccine development, and medicine.

These reviews are now openly published, along with a response from the RR:C19 Editorial Office, that states, "Collectively, reviewers have debunked the authors' claims that: (1) bat coronaviruses ZC45 or ZXC21 were used as a background strain to engineer SARS-CoV-2, (2) the presence of restriction sites flanking the RBD suggest prior screening for a virus targeting the human ACE2 receptor, and (3) the furin-like cleavage site is unnatural and provides evidence of engineering. In all three cases, the reviewers provide counter-arguments based on peer-reviewed literature and long-established foundational knowledge that directly refute the claims put forth by Yan et al. There was a general consensus that the study's claims were better explained by potential political motivations rather than scientific integrity."

Reviewer Dr. Robert Gallo, biomedical researcher and co-founder of The Institute of Human Virology Evidence Scale Rating: Misleading "Widely questionable, spurious, and fraudulent claims are made throughout the paper about the thought-to-be precursor of SARS-2, RaTG13, found in bat caves. The author's attacks include quotes which have not been referenced, including how this 'has been disputed and its truthfulness widely questioned. Soon a paper proving that will be submitted.' She then goes on to attack several genome sequences as fraudulent, ranging from pangolin coronaviruses to bat coronaviruses, again without evidence. The reference she cites for that, in fact, does not make that claim."

Reviewer Dr. Takahiko Koyama, IBM Research, Computational Biology Center Evidence Scale Rating: Misleading "[The] authors' speculation of furin cleavage insert PRRA in spike protein seemed quite interesting at first. Nevertheless, recently reported RmYN02 (EPI_ISL_412977), from a bat sample in Yunnan Province in 2019, has PAA insert at the same site[2]. While the authors state that RmYN02 is likely fraudulent, there are no concrete evidences to support the claim in the manuscript. In addition, argument of codon usage of arginine in PRRA is not convincing since these are likely derived from some kind of mobile elements in hosts or other pathogens. Further investigations are necessary to unravel the mystery of the PRRA insert. For these reasons, we conclude that the manuscript does not demonstrate sufficient scientific evidences to support genetic manipulation origin of SARS-CoV-2."

Reviewer Dr. Adam Lauring, University of Michigan, Internal Medicine Evidence Scale Rating: Misleading "A key aspect of research ethics and the responsible conduct of research is to include information on who supported the work - financially or otherwise. The authors' affiliation is the "Rule of Law Society & Rule of Law Foundation." It is not clear who supports this Foundation or what its purpose is. It is important for there to be transparency regarding research support, especially for a manuscript that is based on conjecture as opposed to data or empiricism. It is also unethical to promote what are essentially conspiracy theories that are not founded in fact."

Rapid Reviews: COVID-19 is an open-access overlay journal that seeks to accelerate peer review of COVID-19-related research pre-prints. The journal is edited by Stefano M. Bertozzi, Professor of Health Policy and Management at the School of Public Health at University of California Berkeley, and published by the MIT Press.

Media Contacts Jessica Pellien Associate Director of Publicity Fortier Public Relations jessica@fortierpr.com

Kate Silverman-Wilson Community and Resource Development Associate The MIT Press kswilson@mit.edu

About the MIT Press Established in 1962, the MIT Press is one of the largest and most distinguished university presses in the world and a leading publisher of books and journals at the intersection of science, technology, art, social science, and design. MIT Press books and journals are known for their intellectual daring, scholarly standards, interdisciplinary focus, and distinctive design.

About the UC Berkeley School of Public Health For 75 years and counting, the UC Berkeley SPH has been dedicated to making a transformative impact on the health of populations through its values of health as a right, strength through diversity, think forward, and impact first. To eliminate inequity and injustice that affects the health and dignity of all people, SPH is committed to radical public health collaborations that challenge conventional thinking, leverage technology, and build bridges between research, public policy, education, and action.

About the Patrick J. McGovern Foundation The Patrick J. McGovern Foundation is dedicated to improving lives globally with information technology, neuroscience, and AI. The Foundation is the legacy of IDG founder Patrick J. McGovern, who believed in the potential for technology to democratize information, improve the human condition, and advance social good.

About the Knowledge Futures Group The Knowledge Futures Group, a nonprofit originally founded as a partnership between the MIT Press and MIT Media Lab, builds and sustains technology for the production, curation, and preservation of knowledge in service of the public good.

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Ice Age manatees may have called Texas home

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

Research News

IMAGE: MANATEES LIVED IN TEXAS DURING THE LAST ICE AGE, ACCORDING TO FOSSIL EVIDENCEFOUND ALONG TEXAS BEACHES. view more
CREDIT: ROBERT BONDE / U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

Manatees don't live year-round in Texas, but these gentle, slow-moving sea cows are known to occasionally visit, swimming in for a "summer vacation" from Florida and Mexico and returning to warmer waters for the winter.

Research led by The University of Texas at Austin has found fossil evidence for manatees along the Texas coast dating back to the most recent ice age. The discovery raises questions about whether manatees have been making the visit for thousands of years, or if an ancient population of ice age manatees once called Texas home somewhere between 11,000 and 240,000 years ago.

The findings were published in Palaeontologia Electronica.

"This was an unexpected thing for me because I don't think about manatees being on the Texas coast today," said lead author Christopher Bell, a professor at the UT Jackson School of Geosciences. "But they're here. They're just not well known."

The paper co-authors are Sam Houston State University Natural History Collections curator William Godwin, SHSU alumna Kelsey Jenkins (now a graduate student at Yale University), and SHSU Professor Patrick Lewis.

The eight fossils described in the paper include manatee jawbones and rib fragments from the Pleistocene, the geological epoch of the last ice age. Most of the bones were collected from McFaddin Beach near Port Arthur and Caplen Beach near Galveston during the past 50 years by amateur fossil collectors who donated their finds to the SHSU collections.

"We have them from one decade to another, so we know it's not from some old manatee that washed up, and we have them from different places," Godwin said. "All these lines of evidence support that manatee bones were coming up in a constant way."

The Jackson Museum of Earth History at UT holds two of the specimens.

A lower jawbone fossil, which was donated to the SHSU collections by amateur collector Joe Liggio, jumpstarted the research.

"I decided my collection would be better served in a museum," Liggio said. "The manatee jaw was one of many unidentified bones in my collection."

Manatee jawbones have a distinct S-shaped curve that immediately caught Godwin's eye. But Godwin said he was met with skepticism when he sought other manatee fossils for comparison. He recalls reaching out to a fossil seller who told him point-blank "there are no Pleistocene manatees in Texas."

But examination of the fossils by Bell and Lewis proved otherwise. The bones belonged to the same species of manatee that visits the Texas coast today, Trichechus manatus. An upper jawbone donated by U.S. Rep. Brian Babin was found to belong to an extinct form of the manatee, Trichechus manatus bakerorum.

The age of the manatee fossils is based on their association with better-known ice age fossils and paleo-indian artifacts that have been found on the same beaches.

It's assumed that the cooler ice age climate would have made Texas waters even less hospitable to manatees than they are today. But the fact that manatees were in Texas -- whether as visitors or residents -- raises questions about the ancient environment and ancient manatees, Bell said. Either the coastal climate was warmer than is generally thought, or ice age manatees were more resilient to cooler temperatures than manatees of today.

The Texas coast stretched much farther into the Gulf of Mexico and hosted wider river outlets during the ice age than it does now, said Jackson School Professor David Mohrig, who was not part of the research team.

"Subsurface imaging of the now flooded modern continental shelf reveals both a greater number of coastal embayments and the presence of significantly wider channels during ice age times," said Mohrig, an expert on how sedimentary landscapes evolve.

If there was a population of ice age manatees in Texas, it's plausible that they would have rode out winters in these warmer river outlets, like how they do today in Florida and Mexico.

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