Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Texas Regulator Slams BP For Flaring

“a waste of our precious resources”
By Irina Slav - Jan 27, 2021

The Texas Railroad Commission has gotten a chance to strike back at BP, which last year urged it to reduce flaring in the state. BP appears to be the company with the most flaring requests to be considered by the regulator, and one commissioner has called the practice “a waste of our precious resources”.

“I am amenable to allowing fair time for flaring to occur in certain circumstances, but limits must be set,” the newest member of the Commission, Republican Jim Wright, said, as quoted by Bloomberg.

This appears to be exactly what BP urged the regulator to do last year, along with peer Shell.

“We believe there is a real opportunity for the state to set the bar for others to follow,” the two Big Oil majors wrote in a letter to the watchdog. “We encourage the Railroad Commission of Texas to support an ambition of zero routine flaring in Texas.”

The two were not the only critics of the Railroad Commission on flaring, so last November, the regulator tightened the rules: it now requires more detailed information from applicants, including a justification for their request to flare. The amended rules also reduce the period during which companies are allowed to flare.

The regulator requires oil and gas companies to apply for a flaring exception permit after the first ten days of a new well’s start. For the first ten days, they are allowed to flare. Right now, BP is seeking a flaring exception for 121 wells, which is an unusually high number. If it receives the Commission’s approval, the cumulative exceptions would be in effect until April next year.

“This two-year flaring exception is a real world test of its promises to tackle carbon emissions,” an oil and gas analyst with transparency advocacy Documented, told Bloomberg. “If BP isn’t serious about reducing routine flaring then the Railroad Commission needs to deny this request,” kelly Mitchell added.

BP sees no problem with its request, according to Bloomberg, which quoted the company as saying it was “committed to zero routine flaring and will continue to work with the commission on this critical issue.’’

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

NYC To Tackle Largest Fossil Fuels Divestment In The World

By Julianne Geiger - Jan 26, 2021, OILPRICE.COM

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Comptroller Scott Stringer announced on Monday that two of the cities pension funds will divest completely from any securities “related to fossil fuel companies”.

The city expects its total divestment to be around $4 billion—likely one of the largest divestments in the world.

The purpose of the divestment is to “address the significant financial and environmental risks that these fossil fuel holdings post to the funds and to our planet.”

Investing in fossil fuels isn’t just bad for the planet, it’s a bad investment, de Blasio shared in a press release. ““Our first-in-the-nation divestment is literally putting money where our mouth is when it comes to climate change. Divestment is a bold investment in our children and grandchildren, and our planet. I applaud the trustees, advocates and experts for their hard work, and I look forward to seeing more cities around the world join this call for change,” de Blasio said.

Oil company stocks had a tough year in 2020, as the sector largely gave way to tech stocks, which fared better throughout much of the pandemic months.

The two funds divesting from fossil fuels include the New York City Employees’ Retirement System (NYCERS) and New York City Teachers’ Retirement System (TRS), which voted today to approve the divestments. New York City Board of Education Retirement System (BERS) is planning to vote “imminently,” according to the press release.

The divestment is expected to be complete within five years, and the names of the company will be released after the sale of the targeted securities.

The city committed back in 2018 to completely divesting its major public pension funds from fossil fuel reserve companies.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

KENNEY SAID HE WAS AGAINST THIS WHEN NDP DID IT

Canadian crude-by-rail exports surge 87% to 170,000 barrels per day in November

January 25, 20211:19 PM The Canadian Press

CALGARY – Canadian exports of crude oil by rail jumped 87% in November as oil production rose in Western Canada amid limited pipeline capacity for heavy crude.

The Canada Energy Regulator says rail shipments of oil amounted to 173,000 barrels per day, up about 80,000 bpd from 92,800 barrels per day in October.

That’s down from 302,300 barrels per day shipped by rail in November 2019.

Crude-by-rail numbers have been volatile in the past year, with shipments rising to a record 412,000 bpd last February, then falling to an eight-year low of 39,000 bpd in July.

Rail transportation of crude oil is considered to be more expensive than shipping by pipeline so shippers tend to use it only when pipelines are full or if the destination market offers much higher prices than can be achieved in Canada.

The CER says overall Canadian crude oil exports in November came to 3.74 million bpd, up by almost 5% from 3.57 million bpd in October. 29dk2902l

Cenovus to lay off upwards of 2,000 employees

January 26, 20219:21 AM Sheldon Smith

Over the next two months, Cenovus is planning to lay off upwards of 2,000 employees, with the first round of layoffs expected in early February.

After the first round of layoffs, more cuts are to follow in a couple of phases in later February and March. The affected workers will receive termination notices by phone, with work-from-home mandates still in effect.

This move comes after Cenovus finalized their deal to buy Husky Energy, a $3.8 billion deal in October, where it was announced that 20-25% of the combined workforce, 1,720 to 2,150 layoffs, would be felt as a result of the merger.

The merger meant there would be overlap and redundancies in a number of roles across the business, resulting in workforce reductions to take place throughout the course of the year.

Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline sees fortunes shine after KXL’s demise

January 25, 2021 Reuters

A aerial view of Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain marine terminal, in Burnaby, B.C.The expansion of Canada’s government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline assumes greater importance for the oil sector after the cancellation of rival Keystone XL reduced future options to carry crude, potential buyers say.

Trans Mountain Corp, a government corporation, is spending C$12.6 billion ($9.9 billion) to nearly triple capacity to 890,000 barrels per day (bpd), a 14% increase from current total Canadian capacity.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government bought the 68-year-old pipeline in 2018 when previous owner Kinder Morgan faced legal hurdles to expand the 1,150-kilometre (715-mile) line running from Alberta to the British Columbia coast. Ottawa has always said it would find new owners.

This week, U.S. President Joe Biden revoked the presidential permit for TC Energy’s Keystone XL pipeline (KXL), undoing efforts by former President Donald Trump to build the line that would have supplied U.S. refiners with 830,000 bpd of Canadian oil.

That decision has made the case for completing Trans Mountain’s expansion stronger.

“This pipeline is even more valuable now,” said Joe Dion, chief executive of Western Indigenous Pipeline Group, one of several First Nations groups interested in buying Trans Mountain.

“Everybody thought Trudeau wasn’t going to get things done in Canada, and he’s the one who successfully got a pipeline over Trump.”

Trans Mountain takes on more strategic importance with KXL cancelled, but it does not mean his group would pay more for it, Dion said.

Trans Mountain has completed 22% of the expansion project, called TMX, which is scheduled for service in December 2022. Suncor Energy Inc, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd and BP PLC are among the committed shippers who have secured 80% of its additional capacity long-term.

“All eyes are on TMX,” said Delbert Wapass, executive chair of Project Reconciliation, a First Nations coalition that hopes to buy 51% this year.

Sharing Trans Mountain’s profits would help improve living conditions on First Nations, he said.

Canadian companies have long struggled to secure top price for their crude as pipeline congestion forced them to sell at a discount.

However reduced fuel demand due to pandemic travel lockdowns and advancing pipeline expansions have eased the flow. Even without KXL, Canada may have surplus export pipeline capacity once TMX enters service, said Matt Taylor, director of infrastructure research at investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt, who expects modest oil production growth to 2025.

Ottawa plans to sell the pipeline once there are fewer risks to completion and consultations wrap up with First Nations, said Finance Ministry spokeswoman Katherine Cuplinskas. TMX has faced stiff opposition over spill concerns.

A second government source said it bought Trans Mountain for its strategic importance, as its Pacific Ocean connection enables shippers to move oil to Asia, as well as the United States, which buys most Canadian crude.

Now its importance is even greater, the source said.

Enbridge Inc, which runs North America’s Mainline oil network, also stands to gain from KXL’s demise. It intends to sell long-term contracts for most of the Mainline’s capacity, pending regulator approval, rather than continue to ration it on the spot market.

KXL’s cancellation frees up long-term commitments by shippers who may now sign Mainline contracts, Taylor said.

Indonesian volcano unleashes river of lava in new eruption
Slamet Riyadi

The Associated Press Staff
Published Wednesday, January 27, 2021

YOGYAKARTA, INDONESIA -- Indonesia's most active volcano erupted Wednesday with a river of lava and searing gas clouds flowing 3,000 metres down its slopes. No casualties were reported.

The sounds of the eruption could be heard 30 kilometres away, officials said. It was Mount Merapi's biggest lava flow since authorities raised its danger level in November, said Hanik Humaida, the head of Yogyakarta's Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation Center.

She said the volcano's lava dome is growing rapidly, causing hot lava and gas clouds to flow down its slopes.

After morning rain, the ashfall turned into muck in several villages. More than 150 people, mostly elderly, living within 5 kilometres of the crater were evacuated to barracks set up for displaced people.

Authorities in November had evacuated nearly 2,000 people living on the mountain in Magelang and Sleman districts but most have since returned.

The alert is being maintained at the second-highest level and authorities told people to stay out of an existing danger zone around the crater.

The 2,968-metre volcano is on densely populated Java island near the ancient city of Yogyakarta. It is the most active of dozens of Indonesian volcanoes and has repeatedly erupted with lava and gas clouds recently.

Merapi's last major eruption in 2010 killed 347 people.

Indonesia, an archipelago of 270 million people, is prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity because it sits along the Pacific "Ring of Fire," a horseshoe-shaped series of seismic fault lines around the ocean.

In this time-lapsed photo, hot lava runs down from Mount Merapi as its activity continues since local geological authority raised the alert level to the second-highest level in November, in Kaliurang, Indonesia, early Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Trisnadi)

Hot cloud of volcanic materials run down the slope of Mount Merapi during an eruption in Sleman, Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2021. (AP Photo/Slamet Riyadi)

HIP CAPITALI$M

Psychedelics ETF to launch in Toronto after sector attracts Peter Thiel's money

The Horizons Psychedelic Stock Index ETF, listed as PSYK, is expected to start trading Wednesday on the NEO Exchange

Author of the article:
Bloomberg News
Michael Bellusci
Publishing date:Jan 26, 2021 •

Companies that work with drugs containing compounds such as psilocybin, the substance in magic mushrooms that produces psychedelic effects, are multiplying. PHOTO BY GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO

The world’s first exchange-traded fund for psychedelic-drug companies will debut this week in Toronto, as the investment industry tries to capitalize on rising interest in prospective mental health treatments using the drugs.

The Horizons Psychedelic Stock Index ETF, listed as PSYK, is expected to start trading Wednesday on the NEO Exchange, its operator said. The fund will track the North American Psychedelics Index.

Companies that work with drugs containing compounds such as psilocybin, the substance in magic mushrooms that produces psychedelic effects, are multiplying. Some early-stage investors are betting the drugs could disrupt the US$70 billion market for mental health treatment. The wave of enthusiasm over cannabis shares in recent years has, in some ways, spread to these drugs that were long associated with all-night rave parties.

Shares of companies like MindMed Inc. and Peter Thiel-backed Compass Pathways Plc have soared in recent months. MindMed has risen more than 10-fold since their first day of trading in Canada in March, giving it a market value of $1.4 billion (US$1.1 billion). The New York-based company said recently that it had raised about $237.2 million since being founded.

Compass’s U.S.-listed shares have risen about 165 per cent since an initial public offering in September, lifting its market value to US$1.6 billion. Jason Camm, Thiel Capital’s chief medical officer, is on the board.

The North American Psychedelics Index, created by Solactive AG, was down 2.7 per cent as of 12:45 p.m. New York time on Tuesday after five straight days of gains. It’s up about 14 per cent since the start of trading Jan. 18.

Cannabis comparison

As more psychedelic firms go public, Steve Hawkins, chief executive officer of the ETF’s operator, Horizons ETFs Management Canada Inc., said the time was right to offer the new investment option. He said the company has received more inquiries on its website about the psychedelics ETF than it did about its first marijuana ETF, which launched in 2017 as HMMJ.

That marijuana fund has been on a wild ride. After debuting at $10 per unit, it surged to more than $26 on euphoria about Canada’s cannabis legalization, then collapsed below $5 last year. This month, it climbed back above the IPO price.

To be included in PSYK, companies must maintain at least a $25-million market capitalization, $0.10 stock price and $125,000 average daily traded value, Hawkins said. Revive Therapeutics Ltd., Mind Cure Health Inc. and Mydecine Innovations Group Inc. are among companies saying they’ll be included into PSYK.

Kevin O’Leary, an early investor in MindMed who’s chairman of O’Shares Investments and has no relationship with Horizons, said the psychedelics sector needed indexing because it’s too risky for institutional investors to bet on just one early-stage company or drug trial. O’Leary, who also owns shares of Compass, said he looks for companies conducting multiple trials and attracting capital.

O’Leary and other investors in the sector chafe at the comparisons between psychedelics and cannabis, emphasizing that they’re seeking to scale up mental health therapies and research and aren’t immediately focused on recreational sales.

“We could not be further from what the cannabis industry became,” said MindMed co-CEO JR Rahn. Psychedelics are a new asset class, Rahn said, aiding in the urgent need for new and innovative mental health treatments. He said he expects pharmaceutical giants to seek partnerships in the sector.

In 2019, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration gave the green light to Johnson & Johnson’s prescription nasal spray Spravato, a close chemical cousin of the anesthetic ketamine that works quickly to alleviate symptoms of depression.

Bloomberg.com

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SHANGRA-LA

Pioneering research unravels hidden origins of Eastern Asia's 'land of milk and honey'

by University of Bristol

Snowy mountain landscape of north-eastern Tibet today.

Credit: Dr Shufeng Li

A study has revealed for the first time the ancient origins of one of the world's most important ecosystems by unlocking the mechanism which determined the evolution of its mountains and how they shaped the weather there as well as its flora and fauna.

It was previously thought Southern Tibet and the Himalaya were instrumental in turning the once barren land of eastern Asia into lush forests and abundant coastal regions which became home to a rich array of plant, animal and marine life, including some of the world's rarest species. But new findings, published today in the journal Science Advances, conversely show Northern Tibet played the more influential role in this transformation which began more than 50 million years ago.

Scientists from a UK-China partnership used an innovative climate model to simulate vegetation and plant diversity, combined with spectacular new fossil finds, to discover how this unique biodiversity hotspot evolved.

Lead author, Dr. Shufeng Li, a visiting scientist at the University of Bristol in the UK and associate professor at Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (XTBG) Institute in Yunnan, China, said: "Until now it was unknown why the climate changed from that of a dry, arid, almost desert-like ecosystem to that of a lush, wet ecosystem where a vast array of plant, animal, and marine life can be found, including some of the world's rarest species.

"We conducted 18 sensitivity experiments using different Tibetan topographies representing various late Paleogene to early Neogene conditions, which test almost all possible Tibetan growth evolution scenarios."

The findings showed that from the late Paleogene to the early Neogene age, some 23-40 million years ago, the growth of the north and northeastern portion of Tibet was the most important factor because it increased rainfall, especially winter rainfall, over eastern Asia where dry winter conditions existed before.

This allowed the development of a stable, wet and warm climate, conducive to the evolution of vast and varied plants and animal species which formed the biodiversity hotspot known today for supplying more than a billion people with fresh water and providing ingredients used for lifesaving pharmaceutical drugs. Rare species of monkey, tiger, leopard, bear, fox, mongoose, hedgehog, seal, dolphin, and sea lion all live in this abundant ecosystem.

Diagram showing how Tibet influences the climate and vegetation of East Asia.

Credit: Dr Shufeng Li

Earlier research has mainly investigated the impact of Tibetan mountain building much further to the South when India collided with Asia around 55 million years ago, leading to the rise of the Himalaya mountains and, eventually, the vast arid Tibetan Plateau. However, recent work is increasingly showing the creation of the modern Tibetan plateau was complex, and did not rise as one monolithic block as originally believed.

Co-author Professor Paul Valdes, Professor of Physical Geography at the University of Bristol who led the modelling group, said: "Most previous studies have focused on Southern Tibet and the Himalaya, but our results indicate it is the growth of northern Tibet which is really important.

"The topography of northern Tibet decreases the East Asian winter monsoon winds in the southern part of China, causing wetter winters in eastern Asia and this allows the expansion of vegetation and biodiversity."

So enigmatic was the drastic change that even in Chinese folklore this area is known as the 'Land of Fish and Rice', due to its immense productivity.

"Without the growth in Northern Tibetan mountains, none of this would exist. But our research should also be taken as a cautionary tale," Professor Valdes explained.

"A unique set of tectonic and stable climatic conditions over millions of years allowed the development of this rare species rich region of South East Asia. However, global warming, harmful intensive agricultural techniques, forest clearing and lack of integrated conservation to preserve this unique ecosystem means once it is gone, it is gone for good."

Professor Zhekun Zhou, of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' XTBG, who led on the fossil analysis, said: "So effectively, without northern Tibetan growth, there would be no 'land of milk and honey' in eastern Asia. This research represents a significant breakthrough in understanding how this remarkably rich region of mountainous terrain and diverse plant life formed."

Explore further

Newly discovered fossils prove "Shangri-La"-like ecosystem in central Tibet

More information: "Orographic evolution of northern Tibet shaped vegetation and plant diversity in eastern Asia" Science Advances (2021).

advances.sciencemag.org/lookup … .1126/sciadv.abc7741

Journal information: Science Advances

Provided by University of Bristol

On nights before a full moon, people go to bed later and sleep less, study shows

by University of Washington

The moon. Credit: University of Washington

For centuries, humans have blamed the moon for our moods, accidents and even natural disasters. But new research indicates that our planet's celestial companion impacts something else entirely—our sleep.

In a paper published Jan. 27 in Science Advances, scientists at the University of Washington, the National University of Quilmes in Argentina and Yale University report that sleep cycles in people oscillate during the 29.5-day lunar cycle: In the days leading up to a full moon, people go to sleep later in the evening and sleep for shorter periods of time. The research team, led by UW professor of biology Horacio de la Iglesia, observed these variations in both the time of sleep onset and the duration of sleep in urban and rural settings—from Indigenous communities in northern Argentina to college students in Seattle, a city of more than 750,000. They saw the oscillations regardless of an individual's access to electricity, though the variations are less pronounced in individuals living in urban environments.

The pattern's ubiquity may indicate that our natural circadian rhythms are somehow synchronized with—or entrained to—the phases of the lunar cycle.

"We see a clear lunar modulation of sleep, with sleep decreasing and a later onset of sleep in the days preceding a full moon," said de la Iglesia. "And although the effect is more robust in communities without access to electricity, the effect is present in communities with electricity, including undergraduates at the University of Washington."

Using wrist monitors, the team tracked sleep patterns among 98 individuals living in three Toba-Qom Indigenous communities in the Argentine province of Formosa. The communities differed in their access to electricity during the study period: One rural community had no electricity access, a second rural community had only limited access to electricity—such as a single source of artificial light in dwellings—while a third community was located in an urban setting and had full access to electricity. For nearly three-quarters of the Toba-Qom participants, researchers collected sleep data for one to two whole lunar cycles.

Past studies by de la Iglesia's team and other research groups have shown that access to electricity impacts sleep, which the researchers also saw in their study: Toba-Qom in the urban community went to bed later and slept less than rural participants with limited or no access to electricity.

New research shows that on nights before a full moon, people sleep less and go to bed later on average. The pattern's ubiquity, which was observed in urban and rural settings, may indicate that our natural circadian rhythms are somehow synchronized with the phases of the lunar cycle.

This visualization is interactive:

https://tableau.washington.edu/views/LunarCycleandSleep/LunarCycle .

Credit: Rebecca Gourley/University of Washington

But study participants in all three communities also showed the same sleep oscillations as the moon progressed through its 29.5-day cycle. Depending on the community, the total amount of sleep varied across the lunar cycle by an average of 46 to 58 minutes, and bedtimes seesawed by around 30 minutes. For all three communities, on average, people had the latest bedtimes and the shortest amount of sleep in the nights three to five days leading up to a full moon.

When they discovered this pattern among the Toba-Qom participants, the team analyzed sleep-monitor data from 464 Seattle-area college students that had been collected for a separate study. They found the same oscillations.

The team confirmed that the evenings leading up to the full moon—when participants slept the least and went to bed the latest—have more natural light available after dusk: The waxing moon is increasingly brighter as it progresses toward a full moon, and generally rises in the late afternoon or early evening, placing it high in the sky during the evening after sunset. The latter half of the full moon phase and waning moons also give off significant light, but in the middle of the night, since the moon rises so late in the evening at those points in the lunar cycle.

"We hypothesize that the patterns we observed are an innate adaptation that allowed our ancestors to take advantage of this natural source of evening light that occurred at a specific time during the lunar cycle," said lead author Leandro Casiraghi, a UW postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Biology.

Whether the moon affects our sleep has been a controversial issue among scientists. Some studies hint at lunar effects only to be contradicted by others. De la Iglesia and Casiraghi believe this study showed a clear pattern in part because the team employed wrist monitors to collect sleep data, as opposed to user-reported sleep diaries or other methods. More importantly, they tracked individuals across lunar cycles, which helped filter out some of the "noise" in data caused by individual variations in sleep patterns and major differences in sleep patterns between people with and without access to electricity.

These lunar effects may also explain why access to electricity causes such pronounced changes to our sleep patterns, de la Iglesia added.

"In general, artificial light disrupts our innate circadian clocks in specific ways: It makes us go to sleep later in the evening; it makes us sleep less. But generally we don't use artificial light to 'advance' the morning, at least not willingly. Those are the same patterns we observed here with the phases of the moon," said de la Iglesia.

"At certain times of the month, the moon is a significant source of light in the evenings, and that would have been clearly evident to our ancestors thousands of years ago," said Casiraghi.

The team also found a second, "semilunar" oscillation of sleep patterns in the Toba-Qom communities, which seemed to modulate the main lunar rhythm with a 15-day cycle around the new and full moon phases. This semilunar effect was smaller and only noticeable in the two rural Toba-Qom communities. Future studies would have to confirm this semilunar effect, which may suggest that these lunar rhythms are due to effects other than from light, such as the moon's maximal gravitational "tug" on the Earth at the new and full moons, according to Casiraghi.

Regardless, the lunar effect the team discovered will impact sleep research moving forward, the researchers said.

"In general, there has been a lot of suspicion on the idea that the phases of the moon could affect a behavior such as sleep—even though in urban settings with high amounts of light pollution, you may not know what the moon phase is unless you go outside or look out the window," said Casiraghi. "Future research should focus on how: Is it acting through our innate circadian clock? Or other signals that affect the timing of sleep? There is a lot to understand about this effect."

Explore further Access to electricity is linked to reduced sleep

More information: L. Casiraghi el al., "Moonstruck sleep: Synchronization of human sleep with the moon cycle under field conditions," Science Advances (2021). advances.sciencemag.org/lookup … .1126/sciadv.abe0465

Journal information: Science Advances

Provided by University of Washington

Experiments show people with contrasting views more respected if they use personal experiences rather than facts

by Bob Yirka , Phys.org

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

A team of researchers with the University of Koblenz-Landau, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Wharton School of Business has found that people looking for more respect from others with contrasting viewpoints are more likely to get it if they argue using personal anecdotes rather than facts. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the group describes 15 unique experiments they conducted to learn more about tolerance in political arguments.

In the U.S. and many other countries, political differences have led to animosity—differences between those with liberal views and those who hold more traditional or conservative beliefs have grown more heated in recent times. In this new effort, the researchers wondered if different approaches used by people when engaging in a political discussion might have different degrees of success. More specifically, they wondered if people would respond with more tolerance for one another if arguments were personally based rather than fact-based. To find out, they carried out a series of experiments.

In their first experiments, they simply asked volunteers to rate whether they would respect the opinions of another person more or less based on facts versus personal anecdotes. More than half of such respondents reported that they would respect another's opinions more if they were fact-based. Subsequent experiments designed to test these feelings, however, showed the opposite to be true.

The next experiments involved observing people with differing views engaging in a political discussion and noting whether they were more respectful of one another when anecdotes were used rather than facts. Other experiments involved analyzing comments left on YouTube videos about controversial topics such as the death penalty, abortion and gun control. The researchers likewise studied comments left on op-eds posted on well known sites like the New York Times, CNN and Fox News.

The researchers found that people were more respectful with people of opposing views if the person expressing their views used anecdotal experience rather than data. In taking a closer look, they found that the more personal the anecdotes were (particularly if they were painful experiences), the more respectfully they were treated.

Explore further In crisis, people trust feelings over facts

More information: Emily Kubin et al. Personal experiences bridge moral and political divides better than facts, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2021).

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008389118

For Trudeau, there's no political reason to fight for Keystone XL

The Liberals have little reason to push for the project when Canadians seem ready to move on

Éric Grenier · CBC News · Posted: Jan 27, 2021

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed disappointment over the U.S. decision to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline. A poll by the Angus Reid Institute suggests a majority of Canadians don't think the pipeline is worth prioritizing over other issues in the U.S.-Canada relationship. (Justin Tang / Canadian Press)

After U.S. President Joe Biden moved recently to revoke permits for the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline project, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he was "disappointed."

That was a fairly tepid reaction to losing an infrastructure project billed as a job-generator and an essential prop for a struggling Canadian energy sector.

But Trudeau doesn't really have an incentive to take on the Biden administration over Keystone because — economic and environmental arguments for and against the project notwithstanding — there simply isn't much of a political case for fighting for it any longer.

Like Trudeau, most Canadians just want to move on.

A survey by the Angus Reid Institute published on Tuesday found that 59 per cent of Canadians would "accept Biden's decision on Keystone XL and focus on other Canada-U.S. priorities" if they were in the prime minister's shoes. Only 41 per cent said they would instead "press for the authorization of Keystone XL above other Canada-U.S. priorities".

That doesn't mean Canadians are indifferent, however.

The poll found that 52 per cent of Canadians think Biden's decision is a bad thing for this country, while just 30 per cent think it's a good thing. While there were some regional divides on the issue, pluralities in every part of the country said losing Keystone is bad for Canada.

Albertans want Ottawa to fight for Keystone XL while most Canadians ready to move on, poll suggests

So Trudeau's response might have been an accurate reflection of how most Canadians are reacting to the news — with grudging acceptance.

Canadians also might be taking a dim view of the federal government's chances of convincing the U.S. president to abandon a campaign promise — one that Biden thought was important enough to get out of the way on his first day in the Oval Office.

Biden has his own supporters to think about. So does Trudeau.

Keystone a big issue where Liberals have little support

Among those who voted for the Liberals in the 2019 federal election, 77 per cent of those polled by the Angus Reid Institute said they believed it would best for Ottawa to focus on priorities other than Keystone with Biden. The share of NDP and Green voters polled who felt the same way was even higher — at 81 and 87 per cent, respectively.

Those NDP and Green supporters happen to be the voters the Liberals need on their side to secure a majority government in the next election.

Regionally, the survey shows how the Liberals have little to gain by bringing up Keystone XL again. Only in Alberta and Saskatchewan did a majority of those polled by the Angus Reid Institute say they believe that the defence of Keystone XL should be placed above other priorities.

U.S. President Joe Biden signed his first executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House on Jan. 20, 2021, including the order revoking the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. (AP)

The Liberals don't hold any seats in either province. They also don't have great prospects to change that situation any time soon. The party fell 13 seats short of a majority government in the last election — and not one of the 13 seats the Liberals came closest to winning was located in either Alberta or Saskatchewan.

Those near-miss seats were in Ontario (seven), Quebec (three), British Columbia (two) and Nova Scotia (one) — all provinces where a majority of voters expressed a willingness to let Keystone go.

In fact, the seat the Liberals came closest to winning in Alberta or Saskatchewan last time — Edmonton Centre — would rank just 30th on their list of target ridings based on voting margins in 2019.

It may sound cynical, but when an entire region of the country is no longer politically competitive for a particular party, that party no longer has a strong incentive to compete for those votes.

Canadians want the U.S. relationship to work

And there's little for Trudeau to gain in picking a fight with Biden.

In the days after the U.S. vote, the Angus Reid Institute found that 61 per cent of Canadians expected Biden's victory to have a positive impact on U.S.-Canada relations. Just 12 per cent expected the impact to be negative.

More recently, an Abacus Data survey conducted between Jan. 15 and 18 found that 49 per cent of Canadians held a positive impression of Biden and just 16 per cent had a negative one. By comparison, 80 per cent of Canadians polled have a negative impression of Donald Trump, and just nine per cent have a positive view of the ex-president.

Polls indicate Canadians were relieved to see Biden defeat Trump in the November presidential election. The former U.S. president was deeply unpopular in this country and most Canadians are unlikely to perceive the actions taken by the Biden administration as negatively as they viewed the decisions made by Trump — even the ones that could have a bad impact on Canada's interests.
Preaching to the choir

So this is a relatively easy political choice for the Liberals. The Conservatives are in a trickier position.

According to the Angus Reid Institute poll, 79 per cent of Conservative voters think Keystone XL should be given priority over other issues. Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole has criticized the Liberals' "total failure" on Keystone XL. He has not, however, gone as far as Alberta Premier Jason Kenney by calling for retaliatory sanctions.

It's the duty of the Official Opposition to oppose — but going hard against the Liberals over Keystone is unlikely to appeal to many people outside the Conservative base.

The Conservatives already have 47 of 48 seats in Alberta and Saskatchewan. They need that last seat (Edmonton–Strathcona, occupied by a New Democrat) a lot less than they need to win dozens of new seats across Ontario, B.C. and Atlantic Canada.

Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole used his first two questions in the first question period of 2021 on the cancellation of the Keystone XL project. (Justin Tang / Canadian Press)

It makes sense for Kenney to go on the offensive against the federal government over Keystone XL, of course. He's doing what most of his constituents would do in his shoes, according to the Angus Reid Institute poll.

Kenney also needs a political boost. Polls have shown he is now one of the least popular premiers in the country. Since the end of last summer, polls have consistently shown his United Conservative Party either statistically tied with or trailing the opposition New Democrats. The NDP even out-fundraised the UCP last year.

ANALYSIS How political symbolism brought down Keystone XL

O'Toole doesn't need to worry about his Alberta flank. But he still used his opening question in the first House of Commons question period of 2021 to needle the government over Keystone XL — on the one-year anniversary of the first recorded case of COVID-19 in Canada, during a week when no vaccines were being shipped into the country.

According to a poll released by Nanos Research this week, 42 per cent of Canadians think the pandemic is the top issue facing the country. Just 12 per cent said it was jobs and the economy. Less than one per cent pointed to pipelines or energy issues.

After the trauma of the Trump presidency, most Canadians appear ready to go along to get along — especially when there are plenty of other things to worry about.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Éric Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail, Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.

Farmers storm India's Red Fort by the thousands
Sheikh Saaliq

The Associated PressStaff
Tuesday, January 26, 2021

Thousands of farmers protest in India

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Thousands of farmers stormed the Red Fort in New Delhi to demand the withdrawal of new laws which they say will impact their earnings.

NEW DELHI -- Tens of thousands of farmers marched, rode horses and drove tractors into India's capital on Tuesday, breaking through police barricades to storm the historic Red Fort -- a deeply symbolic act that revealed the scale of their challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government.

As the country celebrated Republic Day, the long-running protest turned violent, with farmers waving farm union and religious flags from the ramparts of the fort, where prime ministers annually hoist the national flag on the country's August independence holiday. Riot police fired tear gas and water cannons and set up barricades in an attempt to prevent the protesters from reaching the centre of New Delhi, but the demonstrators broke through in many places.

People watched in shock as the takeover of the fort, which was built in the 17th century and served as the palace of Mughal emperors, was shown live on hundreds of news channels. Protesters, some carrying ceremonial swords, ropes and sticks, overwhelmed police.

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The farmers have been staging largely peaceful protests for nearly two months, demanding the withdrawal of new laws that they say will favour large corporate farms and devastate the earnings of smaller scale farmers.

The contentious legislation has exacerbated existing resentment among farmers, who have long been seen as the heart and soul of India but often complain of being ignored by the government. As their protest has gathered strength, it has rattled the government like never before since they form the most influential voting bloc in India and are also crucial to its economy.

"We want to show Modi our strength," said Satpal Singh, a farmer who drove into the capital on a tractor along with his family of five. "We will not surrender."

Leaders of the farmers said more than 10,000 tractors joined the protest, and thousands more people marched on foot or rode on horseback while shouting slogans against Modi. At some places, they were showered with flower petals by residents who recorded the unprecedented protest on their phones.

Authorities used tear gas, water cannons and placed large trucks and buses in roads to try to hold back crowd, including rows upon rows of tractors, which shoved aside concrete and steel barricades. Police said one protester died after his tractor overturned, but farmers said he was shot. Several bloodied protesters could be seen in television footage.

Farmers -- many of them Sikhs from Punjab and Haryana states -- tried to march into New Delhi in November but were stopped by police. Since then, unfazed by the winter cold and frequent rains, they have hunkered down at the edge of the city and threatened to besiege it if the farm laws are not repealed.

"We will do as we want to. You cannot force your laws on the poor," said Manjeet Singh, a protesting farmer.

The government insists that the agriculture reform laws passed by Parliament in September will benefit farmers and boost production through private investment. But the farmers fear it will leave those who hold small plots behind as big corporations win out.

The government has offered to amend the laws and suspend their implementation for 18 months. But farmers insist they will settle for nothing less than a complete repeal and plan to march on foot to Parliament on Feb. 1.

Farmers are the latest group to upset Modi's image of imperturbable dominance in Indian politics.

Since returning to power for a second term, Modi's government has been rocked by several convulsions. The economy has tanked, social strife has widened, protests have erupted against laws some deem discriminatory and his government has been questioned over its response to the coronavirus pandemic.

In 2019, the year that witnessed the first major protests against his administration, a diverse coalition of groups rallied against a contentious new citizenship law that they said discriminated against Muslims.

But the latest protests -- which began in northern states that are major agricultural producers -- have triggered a growing farmer rebellion that is fast spreading to other parts of the country, presenting a serious challenge to Modi's government.

Agriculture supports more than half of the country's 1.4 billion people. But the economic clout of farmers has diminished over the last three decades. Once producing a third of India's gross domestic product, farmers now account for only 15% of the country's $2.9 trillion economy.

More than half of farmers are in debt, with 20,638 killing themselves in 2018 and 2019, according to official records.

Devinder Sharma, an agriculture expert who has spent the last two decades campaigning for income equality for Indian farmers, said they are not only protesting the reforms but also "challenging the entire economic design of the country."

"The anger that you see is compounded anger," Sharma said. "Inequality is growing in India and farmers are becoming poorer. Policy planners have failed to realize this and have sucked the income from the bottom to the top. The farmers are only demanding what is their right."

Modi has tried to dismiss the farmers' fears as unfounded and has repeatedly accused opposition parties of agitating them by spreading rumours.

The protests overshadowed Republic Day celebrations, in which Modi oversaw a traditional lavish parade along ceremonial Rajpath boulevard displaying the country's military power and cultural diversity. Authorities shut some metro train stations, and mobile internet service was suspended in some parts of the capital, a frequent tactic of the government to thwart protests.

The parade was scaled back because of the pandemic. People wore masks and adhered to social distancing as police and military battalions marched along the route displaying their latest equipment.

Republic Day marks the anniversary of the adoption of the country's constitution on Jan. 26, 1950.

Police said the protesting farmers broke away from the approved protest routes and resorted to "violence and vandalism."

The group that organized the protest, Samyukt Kisan Morcha, or United Farmers' Front, blamed the violence on "anti-social elements" who "infiltrated an otherwise peaceful movement."

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AP video journalist Rishabh R. Jain contributed to this report
RELATED IMAGES

Indian Railway Protection Force (RPF) personnel march during Republic Day celebrations in Hyderabad, India, Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2021. (AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.)

Sikhs wave the Nishan Sahib, a Sikh religious flag, as they arrive at the historic Red Fort monument in New Delhi, India, on Jan. 26, 2021. (Dinesh Joshi / AP

Indian farmers storm historic Red Fort in Republic Day protests

Growers have camped outside New Delhi for almost 2 months

Thomson Reuters · Posted: Jan 26, 2021

Protesters gather at the Red Fort as Indian farmers continue to demonstrate against the central government's recent agricultural reforms in New Delhi on Tuesday. (Sajjad Hussain/AFP/Getty Images)

Thousands of Indian farmers protesting against agricultural reforms overwhelmed police on Tuesday and stormed into the historic Red Fort complex in New Delhi after tearing down barricades and driving tractors through roadblocks.

Police fired tear gas in an unsuccessful bid to force the protesters back. One protester was killed, a witness said, and Delhi police said 86 officers had been injured across the city.

Some of those who scaled the walls of Red Fort carried ceremonial swords, scattering police who tried to prevent them from entering. Footage from Reuters partner ANI showed police jumping from the ramparts to escape. Once inside, the protesters hoisted flags.

Angered by laws they say help large, private buyers at the expense of producers, farmers have camped outside the capital for almost two months, posing one of the biggest challenges to Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he came to power in 2014.

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"Modi will hear us now, he will have to hear us now," said Sukhdev Singh, 55, a farmer from the northern state of Punjab.

The body of one protester draped in an Indian tricolour lay in the street after the tractor he rode overturned in one clash, said a witness, Vishu Arora.

"He died right there," Arora said.

Indian farmers descend on capital to protest reforms

PHOTOS 12 TOTAL Indian farmers storm historic Red Fort in Republic Day protests | CBC News

A Reuters witness saw several police and protesters with head injuries following clashes at the Red Fort, from whose ramparts Modi delivers an annual speech.

The government ordered internet services in some parts of the capital to be blocked, according to mobile carrier Vodafone Idea, in an attempt to prevent further unrest.
Breakaway protests condemned

Tens of thousands of farmers began the day in a convoy of tractors festooned with flags along the city's fringes.

But hundreds of protesters — some on horseback — broke away from approved routes, heading for government buildings in the city centre where the annual Republic Day parade of troops and military hardware was taking place.

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They commandeered cranes and used ropes to tear down roadblocks, forcing constables in riot gear to give way, Reuters witnesses said. A second group rode tractors to a traffic junction, also breaching barricades after clashes with police.

Police accused those who diverged from the agreed routes of "violence and destruction."

"They have caused great damage to public property and many police personnel have also been injured," a police statement said.

Farmers in New Delhi take part in a tractor rally on Tuesday as they demonstrate against the Indian government's recent agricultural reforms. (Money Sharma/AFP/Getty Images)

Protest organizer Samyukt Kisan Morcha said the groups deviating from set routes did not represent the majority of farmers.

"We also condemn and regret the undesirable and unacceptable events that have taken place today and dissociate ourselves from those indulging in such acts," the group of farm unions said in a statement.

Amarinder Singh, chief minister of Punjab state where many of the protesters came from, called the clashes "shocking."

"The violence by some elements is unacceptable," he said in a tweet. "It'll negate goodwill generated by peacefully protesting farmers."
Farmers' unrest concerns government

Agriculture employs about half of India's population of 1.3 billion, and unrest among an estimated 150 million landowning farmers worries the government.

Nine rounds of talks with farmers' unions have failed to end the protests, as farm leaders rejected the government's offer to delay the laws for 18 months, making a push for repeal instead.

A farmer in New Delhi covers his face to protect himself from

tear gas during the protest on Tuesday against controversial

farm laws introduced by the government.

(Adnan Abidi/Reuters)

"The farm organizations have a very strong hold," said Ambar Kumar Ghosh, an analyst at New Delhi think-tank the Observer Research Foundation.

"They have the resources to mobilize support, and to continue the protest for a long time. They have also been very successful in keeping the protest really focused."

India showcases its military hardware with a parade every year on Republic Day, which marks the adoption of its constitution in 1950.