Pilot program vaccinates Oregon farmworkers at unique clinic

By BRYCE DOLE, East Oregonian
Published: March 31, 2021, 


BOARDMAN, Ore. – Maria Corona knew she wanted to get the vaccine. Three months earlier, eight of her family members tested positive for COVID-19. So had many of her co-workers and neighbors.

“I was really concerned,” said Corona, who, at 49, spends half the year working in food processing plants and the other half working in the fields near her home in Boardman. “You hear a lot in the news that people are dying, so you get afraid.”

The day after Corona learned through Facebook that she and her co-workers were eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, she hopped in her Dodge Caravan and made her way down to the SAGE Center, where state and county health officials were offering doses to farmworkers in a four-day clinic that was the first of its kind.

“In order to not infect other people, to feel safe with your family and to be secure is what’s most important,” Corona told the East Oregonian through a translator after getting her vaccine last week.

Akiko Saito, deputy director for the COVID-19 response and recovery unit, a joint division between the Oregon Health Authority and the Oregon Department of Human Services, said the clinic was a “pilot project” specifically geared to immunize a community long understood to be especially vulnerable to COVID-19.

In all, officials vaccinated over 1,000 agricultural workers at the clinic, according to the Morrow County Health Department.

Saito said state officials are looking to hold similar efforts statewide. State officials recently conducted a survey with 585 agricultural facilities that showed more than 21,000 workers were eligible for the vaccine.

“We’re working with our local public health authorities to connect agricultural, migrant and seasonal workplaces to see if they can do an event(s) like this” across Oregon, Saito said.

The clinic began two days after Morrow County received approval from the state to move ahead and start vaccinating farmworkers after sufficiently providing doses to all other eligible groups.

At least 20 counties, most of them east of the Cascades, received approval from the state last week, including Umatilla County.

The change also comes just in time for harvest season, which brings thousands of jobs to the area. Morrow County Public Health Director Nazario Rivera said harvest season can bring as many as 8,000 workers to the region annually.

“We want to make sure we get some of these vulnerable communities,” he said. “We know with the season changing to spring, a lot more farmworkers are going to be out there. So if we can get them now, before the season starts, it’ll be a lot easier to get them vaccinated, rather than having to ask them to take time out of their busy schedules to come get a vaccine.”

It’s a workforce that drives the region’s economy, but is widely known to place workers, many of whom are Hispanic and Latino, at increased risk of infection.

In Morrow County, Hispanic residents have accounted for 57% of the county’s total COVID-19 cases, according to data provided by county health officials earlier this month. About 38% of Morrow County’s population is Hispanic, according to 2019 U.S. Census data.

Similar trends have been reported in Umatilla County, where residents reporting Hispanic ethnicity accounted for 41% of the county’s total COVID-19 cases in 2020, according to data from the county health department. The population also tested positive at a rate over three times higher than non-Hispanics, the data shows.

Saito said the event was a collaborative effort between a number of groups to immunize a community they recognize as a “priority population.”

“We know they’re exposed because they have to be close together when they work, and there’s been a lot of racism and injustice that’s happened over time,” Saito said, adding that the “ending health inequities” is part of the state’s 10-year plan. “This is one of the ways we’re making sure we have an equity focus and that we’re looking at those populations that have been disproportionately infected and who have historically been underserved.”

Officials have said working conditions in essential workplaces have been a driving factor behind the pandemic’s disproportionate impact on Hispanic communities nationwide.

“We have this whole row of processing plants, so (it’s) definitely a high-risk community,” Rivera said, looking out at the cars moving swiftly through the clinic, dwarfed by the large industrial facilities in the background.

Because of this, everything down to the scheduling of the daily clinics was geared to accommodate agricultural workers, partly because they often cannot take time off work to get a shot, Rivera said. He added that the health department engaged in a variety of efforts to inform residents about the clinic, like advertising it on local Spanish radio stations.

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Similar efforts are ongoing in Umatilla County, where county health officials have been reaching out to agricultural facilities to bring vaccines to workers while they’re on the job.

Umatilla County officials have said they also want to hold similar efforts as the Morrow County clinic, particularly because the state brings more doses with them, which could help with the county’s dismal vaccination rates, which remain the lowest in Oregon, according to state data.

 

Amazon Admits Pee Bottles Are A Thing, Not Denying Union-Busting Either

Robyn Pennacchia

April 03, 2021 03:30 PM

 

commons.wikimedia.org

Last week, whoever runs the Amazon News Twitter account got into a bit of spat with Wisconsin Rep. Mark Pocan, after Pocan dared mention the corporate behemoth's issues with union-busting and workers having to pee in bottles because they are afraid they will lose their job if they take the time to use an actual bathroom because Amazon tracks everything they do.

Amazon News shot back by tweeting "You don't actually believe the peeing in bottles thing, do you?" as if Pocan was believing some kind of kooky conspiracy theory and not a widely reported thing that many Amazon drivers say they have had to do.

In response, people all over social media and news orgs everywhere (including Wonkette) shared the many pictures and stories shared by Amazon drivers who have said they have to pee in bottles if they don't want to get fired.

Aware of how foolish they looked, Amazon has officially issued an apology to Rep. Pocan, along with an acknowledgement that pee bottles are in fact a thing. However, they are claiming that this is an "industry-wide problem" that affects drivers from various companies, due to the inability to always find places to use the bathroom.

Via Amazon:

This was an own-goal, we're unhappy about it, and we owe an apology to Representative Pocan.

First, the tweet was incorrect. It did not contemplate our large driver population and instead wrongly focused only on our fulfillment centers. A typical Amazon fulfillment center has dozens of restrooms, and employees are able to step away from their work station at any time. If any employee in a fulfillment center has a different experience, we encourage them to speak to their manager and we'll work to fix it.

Second, our process was flawed. The tweet did not receive proper scrutiny. We need to hold ourselves to an extremely high accuracy bar at all times, and that is especially so when we are criticizing the comments of others.
Third, we know that drivers can and do have trouble finding restrooms because of traffic or sometimes rural routes, and this has been especially the case during Covid when many public restrooms have been closed.

This is a long-standing, industry-wide issue and is not specific to Amazon. We've included just a few links below that discuss the issue.

Regardless of the fact that this is industry-wide, we would like to solve it. We don't yet know how, but will look for solutions.

We will continue to speak out when misrepresented, but we will also work hard to always be accurate.

We apologize to Representative Pocan.

Really, they should be apologizing to their drivers and even maybe ending their policy of robotically tracking literally everything their workers do, including when they take bathroom breaks and then firing them automatically if it appears they've gone too often.

Drivers, by the way, are not the only Amazon workers who have been known to resort to pee bottles. For his 2018 exposé Hired: Six Months Undercover In Low Wage Britain, James Bloodworth went undercover in an Amazon warehouse in the U.K. — and reported that pee bottles were a thing there as well, as workers feared getting in trouble for "idle time."

The results of a survey of U.K. Amazon workers also found that the vast majority of them avoided going to the bathroom for fear of repercussions.

You will note that neither the letter nor the tweet denies that the company engages in union-busting. Apparently they're not that bothered if people know that's a thing they are into.

In a few days, we will be getting the results of the Amazon union vote, which could be really big for the future of both Amazon and American labor. If the workers at their Bessemer, Alabama plant vote to unionize, it's likely that other Amazon workers will vote to do so as well, and if they vote to unionize ... well, it's likely to spread to other companies and industries as well.

Anyway! This is now your open thread! Have a nice day!

Amazon Admits Pee Bottles Are A Thing, Not Denying Union-Busting Either - Wonkette

Calling the insurgency in Mozambique ‘terrorism’ won’t help end it

A woman is comforted by friends after a ship carrying more than 1,000 people fleeing an attack claimed by Islamic State-linked insurgents on the town of Palma, docks in Pemba, Mozambique, April 1, 2021.REUTERS/Emidio Jozine 

APRIL 2, 2021
Written by
Elizabeth Shackelford

I last visited Pemba in September 2017. It’s the capital city of Mozambique’s northernmost province of Cabo Delgado. I’d visited a few times in the years before to see friends and enjoy the rustic beaches. By that last trip, the relaxed pace I’d grown accustomed to had given way to a sense of anticipation. Massive international investment was eagerly expected for the continent’s largest natural gas deposit. Opportunity was at the door, shadowed by a sense of anxiety over how the region might change as a result. Would the investment help lift this left-behind province out of poverty? Or would it become another victim of the resource curse?

The insurgency began in October that year, with a coordinated attack on police stations and banks leaving 17 dead in Mocimboa da Praia, about 100 miles north of where I’d stayed in Pemba only weeks before. Since then, the conflict in Cabo Delgado has expanded and escalated, growing more capable and more violent year on year. Victims have been beheaded and dismembered. Others have been abducted. In March, militants raided Palma, a small town about 50 miles further north and home to the multi-billion-dollar extraction project that has promised billions in revenue for the Mozambican government and profit for multinational corporations. At the time of writing, dozens had been killed, including an unknown number of expatriate workers, and large parts of the town remained under control of the insurgents.

While the grotesque violence has been horrifying, the insurgency itself is not surprising. The northern part of the country has long been home to anti-government sentiments and resentment of the political elites in the south that dominate both the government and the dividends of development. It emerged in areas dominated by RENAMO, the rebel group in the Mozambican civil war that has been the main opposition party since the war ended in 1992. RENAMO gave voice to a large and marginalized minority. Growing economic angst fueled violence again in the region in 2013, and government forces responded with a heavy hand and human rights abuses, leading to widespread displacement of local communities. In many ways, the latest insurgency is filling the hole left by RENAMO after the death of its leader Afonso Dhaklama in 2018. By this time, however, a new generation felt cheated by the region’s marginalization. Unlike their parents and grandparents, this generation had no memory of the civil war to compare to their mostly peaceful but poor existence. A willingness to respond with violence had once again emerged. It was fertile ground.

The insurgency is limited to Cabo Delgado now, but there is a risk it could spread further south to other RENAMO areas dominated by opposition sentiment. Although the resistance began in the mosques of Mocimboa da Praia, the insurgency is driven more by anti-government sentiment than religious extremism. Grievances are focused on the lack of economic opportunity and abuse of local populations to benefit outside investors. The message was and still is: this government has done nothing for you, why should you follow its laws and pay its taxes. This is an essential distinction because it means that the grievances spurring on violence and drawing in more recruits can and must be addressed by better governance and sustainable development. A military response alone won’t suffice.

The U.S. government has designated the insurgent group a Foreign Terrorist Organization, and its members Specially Designated Global Terrorists. It’s true that the group pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2018, and ISIS has even claimed responsibility for some of the attacks, though the group has made little to no public statements locally. It may even be true that ISIS has provided the insurgents with training and support. But other facts suggest that this alliance is no more than a marriage of convenience for both parties. The group is known locally as Al-Sunna wa Jama’a (ASWJ) or Al Shabab (meaning ‘the youth’), but it has no relation to either of the Somali groups known by these same names. It has no public figures locally, has made no clear demands, and professes no overt religious doctrine. The insurgents’ adoption of ISIS-style terror tactics, like beheadings and kidnappings, were likely in return for material support that they craved.

In return for its support, ISIS has expanded perceptions of its reach, even though it likely has no command control over ASWJ and has done nothing to shape its unclear agenda. The connection with ISIS is neither ideological, tactical, or strategic. ASWJ appears to have equally transactional relationships with local smugglers, who are happy to fund disruption that help them retain control over what had long been a mafia-run state, in the absence of functioning government institutions. The arrival of customs agents and formal port procedures, with expanded international investment, had no appeal to those who had grown rich on illicit trades in the region. One common theme in the insurgents’ attacks has been securing resources, and both alliances have been essential in that quest. The world has paid attention to the violence in Palma and what appeared to be targeting of expatriate workers, but in the end, the insurgents appear to have secured significant food, fuels, and arms in the process. Rather than focus on fearful affiliations and tactics, we might ask what target they are supplying up for.

Labeling ASWJ global terrorists will have little meaningful impact on the hundreds of young fighters who fuel the insurgency. They have no bank accounts or property in the West to be impacted. It will, however, significantly influence how the U.S. government, and others, view the conflict and what actions they pursue to resolve it. This designation not only elevates what the conflict means for U.S. national security, but it also dangerously downplays the very real grievances fueling this, and prior, rebellions in the region.

If we accept primarily a counterterrorism lens, Mozambique could become the latest addition to a long list of foreign countries where U.S. Special Operations Forces settle in for the long haul, engaging in operations and military training destined to do little more than keep the threat contained. This would fit our world view and national security narrative, but that would do little to resolve the problem at hand. While the government of Mozambique has accepted limited military training from the United States so far, notably, it has not yet invited direct U.S. military action, which holds both appeal and risk for the receiving country.

Unfortunately, the challenges facing Cabo Delgado have no easy fix. Even the most effective military intervention would at best disrupt the current insurgency while leaving the ground fertile for the next one. Some form of public safety response, police or military, is essential to end civilian suffering, but so, too, is a long-term investment in a mutually beneficial social contract between the government of Mozambique and the people of Cabo Delgado, many of whom blame the government rather than ASWJ for their ills.

If Mozambique is to avoid a cycle of regional violence, the government must invest in building a national identity that reaches from the political elite in the south all the way to the marginalized north, come to the aid of its people who are displaced by violence, bring an end to abuses by government forces, and promote broad-based economic development stemming from the natural gas project. Pervasive, systemic corruption is at the heart of why the government struggles to achieve these objectives.

The United States can still help with the pressing military assistance needed, but it shouldn’t casually sign up for an expansion of the Global War on Terror when the issues spurring the violence are far more akin to a typical civil war. It should use the appeal of its military training and assistance to press the Mozambican government to make meaningful progress in the developmental and governance areas that are the real cause of angst. Label it what you want, but the solution lies in effective governance, and there’s no shortcut to get there.

Job growth in U.S. topped 900,000 in March as hiring broadened

U.S. employers added the most jobs in seven months with improvement across most industries in March, as more vaccinations and fewer business restrictions supercharged the labor market recovery.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 last month and February employment was revised up to a 468,000 gain, according to a Labor Department report Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 660,000 rise. The unemployment rate fell to 6 per cent.



Rising COVID-19 infections had severely restrained the labor market for months, but now more than two million Americans are getting vaccinated daily and economic activity is picking up. This also helps explain why the workforce participation rate edged up in March.

What’s more, businesses have a clearer view of potential demand as a wave of stimulus-supported consumer spending is poised to wash over the nation’s service providers. Local and state government education employment increased by about 126,000, reflecting the return of more in-person learning at schools.


“The end of the pandemic appears to be in sight as vaccine distribution accelerates, and the economic recovery looks like it’s champing at the bit,” Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor, said in a note. “We may be looking at a bright summer with monthly gains of over a million jobs, getting us much closer to pre-pandemic employment.”

While stronger sales and daily progress in the fight against the coronavirus will help bring the labor market closer to its pre-pandemic employment levels, a full recovery will take time.

U.S. Treasury yields received a bump higher following the report, with the 10-year rate climbing as high as 1.69 per cent, although it remained within around 2 basis points of its prior day close. U.S. stocks are closed Friday for a holiday.

Broad Gains

The payroll figures showed broad-based gains across industries, led by a 280,000 surge in leisure and hospitality. Construction payrolls jumped 110,000 after dipping in February amid severe winter weather. Education employment also climbed as more schools reopened.

Manufacturing employment increased by 53,000 last month, the biggest advance since September.

The US$1.9 trillion stimulus package signed last month by President Joe Biden should give an additional shot of adrenaline to hiring amid renewed support for businesses and individuals.

A report Thursday from the National Federation of Independent Business showed a record share of small-business owners in March said they had unfilled positions. That indicates employment will remain strong in coming months.

Further, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pledged the central bank will continue to support the economy with accommodative monetary policy, despite the recent uptrend in economic and employment data. Even with the sharp advance in March, payrolls remained 8.4 million below the pre-pandemic peak of about 152.5 million.

“The recovery is far from complete,” Powell said at the House Financial Services Committee hearing on March 23. “As we have emphasized throughout the pandemic, the path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus.”

The U-6 rate, also known as the underemployment rate, declined to 10.7 per cent from 11.1 per cent. It is often thought of as a more inclusive measure of unemployment than the headline figure because it also accounts for those who stopped looking for a job because they were discouraged about their prospects and those working part-time but desiring a full workweek.


The participation rate, which is the share of the population that is either working or actively looking for work, improved to 61.5 per cent last month from 61.4 per cent. The so-called prime-age participation rate, or the participation rate among those ages 25-54, climbed as more women returned to the workforce.

The report also showed the average workweek increased by 18 minutes to 34.9 hours, partly reflecting a bounce back from severe winter weather a month earlier.

Detailing Demographics
Unemployment rate declined for all races except Asian-Americans
Jobless rate for Asian-Americans rose to 6 per cent from 5.1 per cent, reflecting both an increase in the number of people entering the labor force and more unemployed
Black unemployment rate fell to 9.6 per cent, still the highest among races
Jobless rate among Hispanics fell to 7.9 per cent; unemployment rate for Whites dropped to 5.4 per cent

--With assistance from Kristy Scheuble, Sophie Caronello and Benjamin Purvis.

Lift all ‘illegal sanctions’ on Iran: China tells US
Beijing says US ‘stokes up tensions because it exited Iran nuclear deal’
Riyaz ul Khaliq |02.04.2021



ANKARA

China on Friday called on the US administration to lift all “illegal sanctions” on Iran as it welcomed Washington’s return to the Iran nuclear deal.

“China welcomes the US return to the deal and urges it to lift all illegal sanctions on Iran and stop long-arm jurisdiction,” Hua Chunying, spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told a news conference in Beijing.

As reported by Chinese daily Global Times, Hua said China stands “fair” on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal.

Beijing has been playing a constructive role, she said, “while the US stokes up tensions because it exited the JCPOA.”

China has recently amplified its call for removing sanctions on Iran imposed mainly by the US on Tehran’s oil exports due to its nuclear program.

Last month, China and Iran signed a much-anticipated 25-year strategic cooperation deal as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The $400 billion deal had been on anvil since January 2016 when Chinese President Xi Jinping became the first world leader to visit Iran following the signing of the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and the world powers.

When asked for a comment on US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure investment plan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said it is “US’ internal affair.”

“China has started a new development strategy and will push opening-up so that more countries could amply share China’s development dividends,” Hua said.

Her comments came after Biden presented his $2 trillion plan to revitalize the US’ badly aged infrastructure, seeking a tax hike on corporations to cover its costs.

On rise in violence in neighboring Myanmar, she said: “China hopes varied political parties in Myanmar should initiate dialogue and consultation as soon as possible.”

“China is seriously concerned with the violence and bloodletting there, which hurts Myanmar people. Restraint should be held to avoid aggravating the situation,” the Chinese official added.

At least 536 people have so far been killed in the military crackdown against pro-civilian rule protesters since the Feb. 1 junta takeover in Myanmar, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a rights group based in Thailand.

The Burmese military soon after the coup announced a year-long state of emergency besides establishing its council to run the affairs of the Buddhist-majority country.

Containing Iran and drawing the wrong lessons from the Cold War

APRIL 1, 2021

Written by
Eldar Mamedov

When it comes to Iran, there is a persistent belief in Washington that the Cold War experience in confronting the Soviet Union is relevant to dealing with the Islamic Republic. Yet the pundits and policymakers insist on drawing the wrong lessons from that experience.

The latest iteration of this theme is found Karim Sadjadpour’s recent article in The Atlantic, conspicuously titled “How to Win the Cold War with Iran.” In it, Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, promotes “containment” as a long-term strategy to deal with Iran, similar to the one devised by the American diplomat George Kennan regarding the Soviet Union in 1946.

What Sadjadpour offers, however, amounts to no more than repackaging of the old “dual containment” of Iran and (then Saddam Hussein-led) Iraq dating back to the Clinton presidency. With higher or lower intensity, Washington has pursued that policy ever since, with the JCPOA providing only a brief interlude, and then confined only to the nuclear issue. Dual containment, however, failed to achieve its more general objective of fundamentally changing the nature of the Iranian regime, or the regime itself. Essentially, Sadjadpour proposes to pursue the same, decades-long strategy hoping for a different result.

Enlisting the U.S. Cold War experience as a guide in this effort is not helpful. At a time when Washington has to deal with a rising China and a hostile Russia, it is baffling, to say the least, that it should focus on “winning the Cold War with Iran” — a distant middling regional power, surrounded by hostile states, with a struggling economy and an out-dated military that, unlike the Soviet Union of the original Cold War, poses no direct threat whatsoever to the United States

Apart from overstating the Iranian threat, Sadjadpour exaggerates the success of the original containment strategy in bringing change to — and the eventual demise of — the Soviet Union. Although U.S. pressure and the arms race undoubtedly contributed to exhausting the Soviet economy, there was nothing inevitable about the reform, or perestroika, process launched by then Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 1980s.

For proof, one only has to look at Cuba or North Korea, where one-party “communist” regimes are still in place, despite decades of isolation, sanctions, and pressure. That the Soviet Union ended its existence peacefully 30 years ago is nothing short of miraculous and is mostly attributable to Gorbachev’s refusal to use violence to arrest the country’s disintegration. The set of circumstances that led to the Soviet demise is unique and not easily replicable elsewhere.

Crediting containment alone also does not do justice to Ronald Reagan’s and George H.W. Bush’s careful engagement with the Soviets on arms control. They were attacked by hawks at the time who claimed that the  “Soviets could never be trusted,” exactly the same kind of rhetoric anti-Iranian hard-liners use today against any rapprochement with Tehran. Yet history vindicated Reagan and Bush as their diplomacy helped to end the Cold War.

Sadjadpour and fellow new cold warriors, by contrast, subscribe to a notion that it was not the arms control-centered diplomacy, but rather U.S. support for democratic and nationalist aspirations of the Soviet peoples that ended the Cold War. It follows that Washington should adopt a similar approach to Iran. Yet this fundamentally misreads both the Soviet experience and conditions in Iran.

The democratic aspirations of the Soviets were galvanized by Gorbachev’s top-down policies of openness (glasnost). They didn’t suddenly blossom as a result of some cumulative, pent-up pressure from the populace. American diplomacy at the time was focused on strengthening Gorbachev’s domestic position. When centrifugal forces gained steam in the Soviet Union as an unanticipated consequence of his reforms, Bush and his secretary of state, James Baker, were notoriously cautious in embracing them, out of a well-founded concern that doing so would provoke Soviet hard-liners and roll back all the progress achieved in bilateral relations until then. As to the nationalist impulses that ran through the Soviet periphery, far from encouraging them, Bush in fact showed a distinct lack of enthusiasm as when, in his stop-over in Ukraine in 1991, he warned against “a suicidal nationalism based upon ethnic hatred.”

In Iran, the reformist, moderate aspirations of a significant part of the population found their outlets, since early 1990s, in the elections of former presidents Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Mohammad Khatami and the incumbent, Hassan Rouhani. Each of them reached out to Washington — from Rafsanjani’s offer of a contract to an American oil major Conoco to Khatami’s “dialogue of civilizations” and practical help in the U.S. war in Afghanistan to Rouhani’s JCPOA and de facto cooperation with United States in fighting ISIS in Iraq.

Each time these overtures were ultimately rebuffed by Washington. It is therefore disingenuous for Sadjadpour to claim that the JCPOA failed to soften the Islamic Republic’s anti-American posture: like previous efforts, the attempts at engagements were simply not given chance to consolidate themselves, provide economic dividends to Iran, develop new dynamics in U.S.–Iran relations and eventually set the country on a more liberal trajectory. It was the failure of the JCPOA — due to an extreme form of the containment policy under President Trump — that vindicated the Iranian hardliners’ dim view of the United States and politically undermined the moderates. A true lesson of the Cold War would have been to do the exact opposite: empower the moderates by giving arguments in favor of engagement with the United States. 

More than a viable blueprint for a successful U.S. strategy on Iran, Sadjadpour’s advice is just another example of a conventionally hawkish analysis, based on a selective and ideological reading of the Cold War and its lessons.

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not necessarily the opinions of the S&D Group and the European Parliament.

Written by
Eldar Mamedov

 IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

Military force would hasten, not prevent, an Iranian nuclear weapon

APRIL 2, 2021

Written by
Paul R. Pillar

Continued failure to restore full U.S. and Iranian compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, risks outbreak of U.S.-Iranian warfare in ways that Joe Cirincione partly reviewed in these pages. Some of the scenarios leading in that direction involve unrelated motives that purported U.S. “allies” have for stirring up a fight. Other scenarios involve unforeseen incidents, which tend to arise amid high tension and confrontation, spinning out of control.

But the nuclear issue itself presents a more direct route to war, as some of the history that preceded the JCPOA suggests. One of the motivations for Barack Obama to push ahead with negotiation of what would become the JCPOA — despite all the challenges and roadblocks that had to be surmounted — was to ward off warfare that would begin with a threatened Israeli attack on Iran.

The more that continued non-compliance with the JCPOA leads to continued expansion of Iran’s nuclear program, the greater will be the threat of Israel initiating such a war. Just last month, Israel Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Israel is actively working on lists of Iranian targets to strike if the nuclear expansion continues. Given the perceived nature of the U.S.-Israeli “alliance,” such warfare runs a significant risk of dragging in the United States.

The notion of a military attack to prevent development of an Iranian nuclear weapon is not confined to Israel. The notion has had favor among some foreign policy strategists in the United States, as well as among some whose influence on U.S. policy has been more a matter of money than of strategic sophistication. In the United States as well as in Israel, one can expect the notion to win renewed favor the more that the Iranian nuclear program expands without the restrictions of the JCPOA. 

Even looking beyond the political and moral enormity of conducting an act of aggression to try to preclude the mere possibility of a country acquiring a weapon that several other countries (including in the Middle East) already have, the notion always has had major strategic flaws. One of its underlying assumptions has been that after being subjected to such an attack, a cowed Iran would be deterred from striking back by the possibility of being hit with an even worse attack. That assumption — of a coolly restrained and rationally deterred Tehran — contradicts the mad mullah image that has been at the heart of most alarms about why a nuclear-armed Iran cannot be tolerated. It also contradicts the oft-repeated behavior of many proud nation-states, in which being on the receiving end of an act of military aggression is the very situation in which cool is likely to be lost and anger and revenge are more likely to shape responses.

But look beyond those serious strategic flaws and consider whether such an attack would even make an Iranian nuclear weapon less rather than more likely. A relevant experiment in that regard was conducted 40 years ago next door in Iraq: an Israeli airstrike that destroyed a partially completed nuclear reactor located several miles from Baghdad. The attack elicited some cheers in the United States back then, but the passage of time and further investigation revealed that if the purpose of the Israeli attack was to set back an Iraqi effort to build a nuclear weapon, it was counterproductive. The attack almost certainly accelerated such an effort.

Whatever nuclear weapons-related work Iraq may have been conducting prior to 1981 was slow and did not reflect a high priority. That changed after the airstrike. A concerted bomb-building effort enjoyed a surge in resources. The program was placed under wraps at the same time it was enlarged, and Iraq secretly developed uranium enrichment rather than plutonium production as its route to acquiring bomb-grade fissile material. How far Iraq got along this route was uncovered after the first Gulf war in 1991.

There is every reason to expect that Iran’s reaction to an armed attack on its nuclear facilities would be similar. Iran has had interest in a nuclear weapon, as evidenced by some weapons design work in the past, before it decided that being a non-sanctioned member of the international community rather than a nuclear-armed pariah was better for Iranian interests and agreed under the JCPOA to close all possible routes to a bomb.

An armed attack on its territory would be the sort of event most likely to strengthen whatever voices inside the Iranian regime argue that Iran needs nuclear weapons after all. Specifically, the felt need would be for a deterrent against any future attacks. And without the intrusive inspections under the JCPOA if that agreement were to die altogether, Iran would have an easier time developing a weapons capability in secret.

In short, a military attack would be not just a costly alternative to the JCPOA in preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon. It would be not an alternative at all, but instead a blunder that would make such a weapon more likely in addition to incurring all the retaliatory and other costs of resorting to war.  

Written by
Paul R. Pillar

‘Nobody in Asia knows weed better than the Thais’: new cash crop turning the kingdom green

By Coconuts Bangkok Apr 2, 2021 

THAI STICK TIME 

A vendor pours cannabis powder onto a cannabis-infused ice-cream at a cannabis event held in Buriram. Photo: Medical Cannabis Institute


By Duncan Forgan

If Anutin Charnvirakul has planned to bond himself with cannabis, he has gone about it the right way.

Over the past year or so, Thailand’s current health minister has not missed an opportunity to display his weed-friendly credentials. Images of him sniffing cannabidiol (CBD) oil in parliament, planting cannabis seedlings in a fetching hairnet, or mixing cannabis leaves into drinks circulate on a near weekly basis.


A recent photo on his personal Facebook page showed the tycoon-turned-politician caressing a giant cannabis plant with a near ecstatic look on his face. He posted the snap ahead of the Cannabis 360 festival in Buriram — his party’s Isaan powerbase — where the minister was a star draw at an event to promote the use of cannabis in food, drinks, and health and beauty items.

Here’s every joint cooking with CBD across Thailand (that we know of)

Vendors at the expo showcased a wide variety of lines, with products ranging from cannabis craft soda to soft-serve hemp ice cream and CBD anti-aging cream.

SCREW HYDROPONICS WE GROW IT WILD OUTDSIDE

Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul sniffs a marijuana leaf. Photo: Medical Cannabis Institute

Mixed messages have been a feature of Thailand’s recent governance, but it’s hard to think of a clearer sign that the country’s cannabis industry is edging overground than having your health minister drape himself in weed leaves like your favorite stoner uncle.

Anutin, whose Bhumjaithai Party is part of Thailand’s current coalition government, has built much of his political capital on legalizing cannabis in Thailand. It’s a cause gathering seemingly irresistible momentum via successive moves to decriminalize the plant and its by-products.

He once said legalization would be “a win-win for the Thai people because they will grow the plant, and it will benefit the economy.”

“Our leaders understand the benefits cannabis deregulation will bring to the country, both economically and for the improvement of society and of health,” said Thanisorn “Phet” Boonsoong, CEO of Eastern Spectrum, a fully integrated cannabis plant cultivator and processor, which provides (primarily) hemp-derived CBD products. “We are extremely excited about the cannabis industry in Thailand. Although it’s only in its infancy, we look forward to it expanding much further as things mature.”

Thanisorn ‘Phet’ Boonsoong, at left. Photo: Eastern Spectrum

It’s impossible not to notice the current hype around hemp in Thailand. Medical marijuana was legalized in 2019 — albeit it is still very strictly controlled: limited to specifically licensed clinics and hospitals.

Other moves towards freeing the weed have followed. At the end of 2020 came a formal announcement that most of the cannabis plant would be delisted as Class-5 controlled substances. The formerly forbidden bark, stem, fibres, branches, roots and leaves became legal, providing they comprised CBD with less than 0.2 percent of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) by weight. Flowers and buds—with their heavy-duty volume of THC, the high-inducing psychoactive constituent of cannabis—remain off-limits.

A pilot scheme has also made it legal for Thai households to grow six pots of cannabis each to supplement their income. But any flowers and seeds yielded from the crop grown at homes must be sent to state medical facilities as they remain in Thailand’s criminal code.

These measures have sparked a so-called “green gold rush” where cannabis is becoming increasingly ubiquitous.

On March 17, share prices of Thai cosmetics and food firms rose sharply following announcements about the research and manufacture of cannabis products. One significant beneficiary was CP Foods, which says it plans to launch hemp-based ready meals within the year. Its shares rose 1.65 percent.

All over the country, familiar Thai conglomerates, as well as small-scale entrepreneurs, are dipping their toes into the fast-flowing waters. The wave is epitomized by the appearance of cannabis cafes and the cannabis consumer products doing the rounds at Cannabis 360 and other forthcoming expos, including a major one to be held at Bangkok’s Carlton Hotel to mark World Cannabis Day next month.

Anutin and Dr. Ganja introduce cannabis to children. Photo: Anutin Charnvirakul / Facebook

The craze has even broached the counter-culture-unfriendly surrounds of Siam Paragon, where staid bakery Kanom Siam is stuffing its signature pandan cakes full of chopped leaves from the cannabis plant.

Players in the country’s green gold rush are not so interested in the plant’s potential for inducing a higher state of consciousness. Well, they are, but that’s some way further down the line towards what they hope will be full legalization of the plant—dank buds and all—and widespread acceptance (and monetization) of recreational marijuana use. What is most intoxicating to many is the financial potential of the industry.

“Marijuana is Thailand’s future cash crop,” said Sontirat Sontrijirawonghas, the secretary general of the ruling Phalang Pracharat Party and a former commerce minister.

Indeed, it is hard not to be dazzled by the figures. The global legal market is projected to grow to US$56 billion (THB1.7 trillion) by 2025, according to business consultancy Grand View Research. The Asian medical marijuana market will be worth an estimated US$5.8 billion by 2024, according to Prohibition Partners, a cannabis research firm. It’s no wonder that many view Thailand’s positioning at the vanguard of this boom as a smart economic move. It’s also a play that—on the surface anyway—appears to make sense culturally.

Conservative Thais may disapprove of your average pot-head, but even they can’t deny the country’s stoner credentials. Over the centuries, the plant has been used for medicinal herbs, topical ointments for muay Thai fighters and as an ingredient in multiple recipes. The country’s weed — especially its Thai Stick — is legendary.

Kris Thirakaosal


“Nobody in Asia knows weed better than the Thais,” said Kris Thirakaosal, CEO and co-founder of Golden Triangle Group, which has partnered with Chiang Rai’s Rajabhat University to grow high-quality hemp for use in medical, cosmetic, and F&B products. The company is currently in discussions with potential high-profile partners, including drinks giants Red Bull and Tipco, about using its CBD-packed strains.

“We’ve had the knowledge in Thailand for centuries,” he continues. “With average temperatures up here in the north of around 26 degrees [Celsius], we have perfect conditions for growing cannabis outdoors, which is great for energy efficiency. There are strong labor advantages with a highly skilled agricultural workforce and amazing supply chain benefits. There’s so much potential.”

It’s easy to get swept up in the evangelism of business players like Thirakaosol. But others take a measured view of Thailand’s current green gold rush.

An employee at Golden Triangle Group’s facility in Chiang Rai province. Photo: Golden Triangle Group / Courtesy

“The changes in the law are a step in the right direction, but they are just baby steps,” said Chokwan “Kitty” Chopaka, founder of Elevated Estate and former head of Bangkok-based cannabis advocacy group Highland Network.

Chokwan “Kitty” Chopaka

“The communication from the government about what is and what is not allowed is quite unclear. Many people don’t know what the hell is going on. They don’t understand cannabis and just see the bubble.”

“Everyone is rushing in to stake their claim in the industry. Next, we will see the golden age of the gray market. Smaller players who are getting into the market will likely not be around in four or five months. It’s a very volatile market and will be for the next three or four years.”

Boonsoong of Eastern Spectrum agrees that the coming period in Thailand is likely to involve a degree of fumbling around in the dark.

“There’s confusion about how to capitalize on this industry,” he says. “There is a lack of information and an abundance of misinformation floating around Thailand. Our goal is to contribute to the growth of the industry by providing education and fact-based knowledge.”

The recent frenzy has tended to skate over the issue of recreational use of weed. Pandan cakes, CBD soda, and marketing paraphernalia featuring cute characters shaped like cannabis leaves suggest a societal acceptance of pot. But users of marijuana in Thailand still face severe penalties for possession, including up to ten years in prison. While many dismiss the possibility of legalization, other campaigners are more optimistic.

“I think that Thailand will make cannabis legal for recreational use within five to eight years,” Kitty said. “I believe it is inevitable, especially with more countries around the world legalizing recreational use for adults. Ultimately, politicians believe in the benefit of the ker-ching.”

Nobody doubts the economic potential of marijuana for Thailand. Of course, there will be many who come away empty-handed. On the other hand, the scope for profit is incredible, with a healthy slice of a multibillion-dollar pie the prize for those with the right business strategy and connections.

Perhaps that’s part of the reason why Anutin looks so content when he’s around all those cannabis plants

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Young buds grow at Eastern Spectrum headquarters. Photo: Eastern Spectrum

See art you can’t touch and maybe not afford at Bangkok’s debut NFT exhibition

By Thitima Sukontaros Apr 1, 2021 | 1:34pm Bangkok time

Digital works that will be show and sold at this weekend’s Mango Art Festival at Lhong 1919. From left, works by Tan-star, William Char and Zebracan. At right, the JPG collage of early works by American digital artist Beeple which sold for US$69 million earlier this month.

Those who laughed when a duct-taped banana sold for US$120,000 and were blown away when a Nyan Cat GIF sold for $540,000 last month could be forgiven for thinking April Fool’s day came early two weeks ago when a JPG image sold for US$69 million.

On the same day that U.S. artist Beeple collected his record haul for an intangible work that can never hang on a wall, Thai artist Phurichaya Panyasombat sold her first work of blockchain NFT art for THB50,000 (US$1,600). And on Saturday, the crypto art trend will reach fad-forward Bangkok with the opening of an exhibition at a Sino-hip riverside venue.

“The news of Beeple’s NFT work drew a lot of attention from people in Thailand, and I’ve been observing NFT since the beginning of this year,” said Watjanasin Charuwattanakitti of Thonglor’s Palette Artspace, who is organizing the Mango Art Festival opening at riverside venue Lhong 1919. He says it will be Bangkok’s first NFT art show.

For those not running on the latest updates, NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, are files registered as unique via blockchain in the same way as cryptocurrency. They can be anything digital, from photos and music to paintings and even tweets. People have begun paying serious money for things like clips of basketball players to collect and trade like cards. They’ve also been storming the art world, which was already a place for people to park their fortunes.

Saturday’s opening at Llong 1919 will feature works by a number of local artists including Tan-star and Kyoko Abe. It runs through Tuesday.

Watjanasin said NFT is perfect for the pandemic-era art trade. Because many are still unfamiliar with the format, he said the gallery found young, upcoming digital artists to showcase and sell their work securely to people around the world.

If all goes well, he may offer NFTs of his private erotic works at another venue he owns, Bangkok’s Museum of Sex

Phurichaya, aka Fxaq27, said she didn’t think NFT was a passing fad as she believes digital works will have a place in museums around the world going forward. On top of that, human culture is increasingly expressed online, and she thinks the internet memes that define their place in historical records.

“I haven’t collected any NFTs yet, but when I have more money, I will definitely own some,” she said. “It’s like collecting a piece of history if you buy one-time hit internet memes such as Bad Luck Brian.”

Ahead of the curve is Siriphong “Preto” Tipayakesorn, a Thai visual artist who began collecting NFTs from NBA Top Shot and other artists and is now making his own. Siriphong, who lives in New York and has worked at a number of its museums, said he just spent US$2,000 (THB62,500) on a hypnotic visual and audio piece by American street artist Greg Mike.

“We have to admit that buying and collecting art is an extravagant hobby,” he said. “People who appreciate such activities usually have enough money that they’re not worried about how they’re going to feed themselves tomorrow.”

He said he doesn’t mind the fact it can only be appreciated online, where anyone can make a free copy of it. He said the large sums spent to own such works give a different satisfaction compared to, say, owning Leonardo da Vinci’s Mona Lisa. “A copy is a copy,” he said, comparing copies of NFT works to the worthless prints of famous originals people buy.

FIND IT

Mango Art Festival

Lhong 1919


11am until late, April 3 to April

A Statement from ArtStation on NFT

By ArtStation Team 

Dear all

The last few hours since announcing our intention to run a proof of concept for NFTs on ArtStation have been humbling. Based on the strong demand from artists wanting a way into the world of NFTs, we sincerely felt an obligation to explore this path and help artists succeed.

In light of the critical reception on social media regarding NFTs, it’s clear that now is not the right time for NFTs on ArtStation. We are very sorry for all the negative emotions this has caused. Despite our attempts to validate our approach, we clearly made a mistake and admit fault. It was our bad.

We feel that NFTs are a transformative technology that can make significant, positive change for digital artists. It’s our hope that at some point in the future we’ll be able to find a solution that is equitable and ecologically sound. It will take time for us to reflect on this and we’ll do our best to earn back your trust.

Sincerely,

The ArtStation Team

March 8, 2021

A Statement from ArtStation - ArtStation Magazine