ExxonMobil investor says its climate strategy an 'existential' risk: report


Issued on: 26/04/2021

ExxonMobil's strategy in the face of climate change poses an "existential business risk" to the company, according to an activist hedge fund ERIC PIERMONT AFP/File

New York (AFP)

ExxonMobil's strategy in the face of climate change poses an "existential business risk" to the company, according to an activist hedge fund that is a shareholder in the oil giant, a report in the Financial Times said Sunday.

The company, which has been criticized over the last year for both its financial performance and its approach to renewable energy investment, "has no credible plan to protect value in an energy transition," hedge fund Engine No. 1 said in an 80-page investor presentation.

ExxonMobil has said its business would focus on carbon capture and storage technology as a means to counter the emissions that cause global warming.

However, it also plans to continue pumping oil and expects to spend $20 to $25 billion per year between 2022 and 2025 to fuel its growth, mainly through new oil and gas exploration projects.

In the document, which will be distributed to other shareholders, the hedge fund criticized ExxonMobil's "value destruction" and "refusal to accept that fossil fuel demand may decline," according to the Financial Times.

Engine No. 1 is campaigning for the oil company to consider alternative energy more seriously.

The document also claims that Exxon's total emissions, including those from the products it sells, will increase by 2025.

World leaders came together virtually this week at the request of US President Joe Biden for a 40-leader climate summit.

Biden doubled US targets to slash greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change by 2030, with Japan and Canada also raising commitments and the European Union and Britain locking in forceful targets earlier in the week.

The US oil giant, which lost $22 billion in 2020 amid collapsing oil prices, is due to report its first-quarter results on Friday.

PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY

World military spending grows despite pandemic



Issued on: 26/04/2021 - 

The United States increased its military spending for the third year in a row in 2020, after seven years of reductions (pictured: the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group) Erwin Jacob V. MICIANO Navy Office of Information/AFP/File

Stockholm (AFP)

Military expenditure worldwide rose to nearly $2 trillion in 2020, defying the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, researchers said Monday.

Global military spending increased by 2.6 percent to $1,981 billion (about 1,650 billion euros) in 2020, when global GDP shrank 4.4 percent, according to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Diego Lopes da Silva, one of report's authors, told AFP the development was unexpected.


"Because of the pandemic, one would think military spending would decrease," he said.

"But it's possible to conclude with some certainty that Covid-19 did not have a significant impact on global military spending, in 2020 at least," Lopes da Silva said.

He cautioned however that due to the nature of military spending, it could take time for countries "to adapt to the shock".

The fact that military spending continued to increase in a year with an economic downturn meant the "military burden", or the share of military spending out of total GDP, had increased as well.

The overall share rose from 2.2 percent to 2.4 percent, the largest year-on-year increase since the financial crisis of 2009.

As a result, more NATO members hit the Alliance's guideline target of spending at least two percent of GDP on their military, with 12 countries doing so in 2020 compared to nine in 2019.

- Some Covid effects -

There were however indications the pandemic had affected some countries.

Nations such as Chile and South Korea openly decided to reappropriate military funds in response to the pandemic.

"Other countries, such as Brazil and Russia, did not explicitly say this was reallocated because of the pandemic, but they have spent considerably less than their original budget for 2020," Lopes da Silva said.

Another response, as in Hungary for example, was to increase military spending "as part of a stimulus package in response to the pandemic".

Lopes da Silva noted many countries responded to the 2008-2009 economic crisis by adopting austerity measures, but "this time around it might not be the case".

The world's two biggest spenders by far were the US and China, with Washington accounting for 39 percent of overall expenditure and Beijing for 13 percent.

China's military spending has risen in tandem with its growing economy and has seen an increase for 26 consecutive years, reaching an estimated $252 billion in 2020.

The US also increased its spending for the third year in a row in 2020, after seven years of reductions.

"This reflects growing concerns over perceived threats from strategic competitors such as China and Russia, as well as the Trump administration's drive to bolster what it saw as a depleted US military," Alexandra Marksteiner, another author of the report, said in a statement.

Lopes da Silva however noted that the new "Biden administration has not given any indications that it will reduce military spending."

Nonconformist Youn Yuh-jung: S. Korea's first Oscar-winning actress



Issued on: 26/04/2021 - 

Youn Yuh-Jung is South Korea's first Oscar-winning actress 

Chris Pizzello  POOL/AFP

Seoul (AFP)

Septuagenarian Youn Yuh-jung, South Korea's first Oscar-winning actress, has spent decades portraying nonconformist characters, from a vicious heiress to an ageing prostitute, challenging social norms in both career and life.

Her best supporting actress turn in "Minari", a family drama about Korean immigrants in the US, is relatively more conventional: she portrays a playful grandmother to a mischievous young boy trying to adapt to life in rural Arkansas.

The film, written and directed by Korean-American Lee Issac Chung, earned six nominations overall including for best picture, best actor and a nod for Chung


Youn's win is the second Oscars success for a Korean-language film in as many years, after "Parasite" became the first non-English language best picture winner in 2020.

Youn, whose two grown sons are Asian-Americans, had played down excitement over her chance to make history, telling reporters last month: "This is not a playoff game of actors, placing them in order".

And in her acceptance speech on Sunday, she honored her fellow nominees, exclaiming: "How can I win over Glenn Close?"

She had already collected a best supporting actress Screen Actors Guild award -- the first South Korean actress to do so -- and a Bafta for her performance, along with a string of prizes on the festival circuit.

Based on Chung's own experiences growing up in America in the 1980s, "Minari" follows a Korean-born father who moves his family to a mainly white town in rural Arkansas in pursuit of a better life.

It is the latest of several grandmotherly castings for Youn, and "Parasite" director Bong Joon-ho said the role was "the loveliest character Youn has ever played".

The award honours not just "her performance in 'Minari', but the culmination of an illustrious career working with many of the prominent directors in Korea", said Brian Hu, a film professor at San Diego State University.

"The win should be above all a testament to a career honing her craft."

- 'Scarlet letter' -

Over more than 50 years, Youn has often played provocative and atypical characters who do not conform to the rules of socially conservative Korean society.

Born in 1947 in Kaesong -- now in North Korea -- she made her film debut in groundbreaking director Kim Ki-young's "Woman of Fire" (1971), as the live-in maid to a middle-class household who becomes impregnated by the father of the family.

The thriller was a critical and commercial hit -- it remains a classic of the South's modern cinema -- and Youn paid tribute to the late Kim in her speech on Sunday, saying: "I think he would be very happy if he was still alive."

Despite the success of "Woman of Fire," Youn's first heyday came to an abrupt end in 1975, when she married singer Jo Young-nam and the couple moved to the United States.

Youn returned to South Korea in 1984, divorced Jo three years later, and struggled to resume her acting career to support her two children, at a time when divorce carried heavy stigma for Korean women.

"To be divorced was like having the scarlet letter at the time," Youn told a local magazine in 2009.

"There was this thing that dictated women shouldn't make TV appearances so soon after their divorce."

She countered by accepting every role she was offered, however small.

"I worked very hard. I had this mission of somehow feeding my children. I'd say yes even when I was asked to climb 100 stairs," she said.

Fiercely competitive waters' -

By the 1990s, Youn was a regular in television dramas, often portraying mothers, and later grandmothers.

In 2003, Youn made her film comeback in director Im Sang-soo's "A Good Lawyer's Wife", as an unconventional mother-in-law in a dysfunctional family.

She played a cruel and rich heiress betrayed by her husband in Im's 2012 thriller "Taste of Money", and an ageing haenyeo -- the women of Jeju island who free-dive to collect shellfish -- reunited with her long-lost granddaughter in 2016 drama "Canola".

Also in 2016, she was praised for her role in E J-yong's drama "The Bacchus Lady" as an elderly prostitute -- a veteran of the brothels set up for US soldiers in South Korea -- who becomes involved in the deaths of former clients.

Throughout her career, Youn had to navigate the "fiercely competitive waters" of a film industry "largely focused on young and often male talent" for leading roles, explained Jason Bechervaise, a professor at Korea Soongsil Cyber University in Seoul.

Her Oscar win comes at a fraught time for Asian communities in the United States.

Anti-Asian violence has surged in America this year and four of the eight victims of last month's Atlanta spa shootings were women of Korean descent, three of them in their 60s or 70s.

Film professor Hu told AFP that Youn's award was also a "validation for so many grandmothers in Korean-American households, especially at a time when Asian-American elders are seen as victims rather than victors".

© 2021 AFP

French Resistance and Holocaust documentary film Colette vies for an Oscar

Issued on: 25/04/2021 -

Colette Marin-Catherine during her trip to former German concentration camp Mittelbau-Dora with young French historian Lucie Fouble. © ColetteDocShort

Text by: Stéphanie TROUILLARD

French film Colette is up for the best short documentary award at the Oscars on Sunday night. It tells the story of a woman from Normandy who goes on a sort of pilgrimage to Mittelbau-Dora concentration camp in Germany, where her brother was killed during the Second World War, in the company of a young history student.

Tears are running down the cheeks of Colette Marin-Catherine – who turns 92 on April 25, the day of the Oscars ceremony – as she grips the arm of 19-year-old history student Lucie Fouble. They are at Mittelbau-Dora in central Germany. There is not much to see at the site of this former Nazi concentration camp. But the haunting effects of the past are all too present for these two women.

Marin-Catherine’s brother was murdered during the Second World War – one of the 9,000 French people deported to Dora. Fouble was conducting research on his story. The two of them decided to visit the camp together.

This is the backdrop for the short documentary Colette, which is up for an award in that category at the 2021 Oscars.

Colette Marin-Catherine as a teenage girl. © ColetteDocShort

“No one had any idea it’d become so huge!” Marin-Catherine said from her flat in the Norman city Caen a few days before the ceremony. The Oscar nomination has changed her life completely; the phone keeps ringing, journalists keep interviewing her – and she relishes the opportunity to talk about the documentary and the story it elucidates.

‘He had an iron will’

The documentary project started in 2018. American director Anthony Giacchino and French producer Alice Doyard were looking for heroic figures from the Second World War to make a film about. They came across Marin-Catherine in Normandy. She joined the French Resistance as a secondary school pupil.

Her family was deeply patriotic – and she always kept in mind that her grandfather and two uncles were killed in the First World War; as well as that her great-grandfather died in the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War. “In our family all the men died in wars,” Marin-Catherine put it.

Colette Marin-Catherine and Lucie Fouble near the crematorium at Mittelbau-Dora concentration camp. © ColetteDocShort

As a teenager during the Occupation she monitored the German soldiers’ comings and goings around Caen for the Resistance, noting the licence plates of their vehicles. Her brother Jean-Pierre, meanwhile, distributed leaflets, stashed weapons and helped Resistance members hide.

In 1943, Jean-Pierre was arrested a few months after he garlanded Great War memorials – a symbolic crime in the eyes of the Nazi occupiers. Sentenced to forced labour, he was initially sent to the Struthoff camp in Alsace, then to Gross-Rosen concentration camp in Germany, and finally to Mittelbau-Dora. He died of exhaustion there on March 22, 1945 – 10 days after his 19th birthday.

>> The smile at Auschwitz: Uncovering the story of a young girl in the French Resistance

“He was a good-looking chap – and an athlete to boot,” Marin-Catherine recounted. “He had an iron will as well as great intelligence; he was two years ahead in his studies. It was so terrible to see such a brilliant human being disappear – you can imagine the kind of future he would have had!”

Marin-Catherine vowed never to go to Germany. She didn’t want to take part in what some see as the morbid tourism at the concentration and death camps: “I most certainly wasn’t going to go to Mittelbau-Dora in a coach full of people chatting away to each other.”

But meeting Fouble changed her mind. Giacchino and Doyard put her in touch with this history student – who was working on a biography of Jean-Pierre as part of a book about the French deportees to Mittelbau-Dora. “There was a kind of spontaneous empathy that emerged between her and me; I literally adopted her as my granddaughter,” Marin-Catherine said.

‘I gained a grandmother’

The two filmmakers soon proposed that they take a trip to Mittelbau-Dorn to follow in Jean-Pierre’s footsteps. Marin-Catherine agreed to go with Fouble. “It made me think that it wouldn’t be a tourist trip; it would really be a kind of pilgrimage,” she said. “I never would have done it without this magnificent opportunity the filmmakers gave me. Lucie was a great help to me. Thanks to her, I was able to go and see the exact place where Jean-Pierre died.”

Under the camera’s gaze, the former Resistance member was overwhelmed with emotion as she went to Mittelbau-Dora: “I knew that as soon as I crossed the border that it would change me. It was quite something to hear people speaking German again after all those years; it brought back a lot of memories of the Occupation.”


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The experience also left a deep mark on Fouble. “I’ve had trouble getting over it,” she said. “I remember when we were in the crematorium and Colette told me that was where Jean-Pierre died; she just broke into tears. But it all did so much to help me grow as a human being. In addition to the honour of befriending a former member of the Resistance, I also gained a grandmother.”

“Given my age, it’ll be Lucie who will keep this story’s memory alive,” Marin-Catherine said. “I’ve only got one thing to say to the next generations: Don’t stir up hatred! I see this film as a message of peace.”

She will be watching the Oscars ceremony on television live from her home in Normandy. “I’m 92, so winning an Oscar would hardly change my life. But if I win, I’ll celebrate by doubling my dose of chocolate. Every night, I tend to have a bar – if I win, I’ll start having two!”

Marin-Catherine was especially pleased to note that the Oscars ceremony will take place on her birthday – and Holocaust Remembrance Day: “It’s an exquisite co-incidence!

The promotional poster for the film Colette, nominated for a 2021 Academy Award for best short documentary. © ColetteDocShort

Researchers say the T Rex walked about the same speed as a person

Shane McGlaun - Apr 24, 2021,

One of the most famous dinosaurs is the Tyrannosaurus Rex, more commonly known as the T. Rex. Movies featuring the dinosaur lead us to believe that the dinosaur was very fast, but it appears that isn’t true. A new study recently published by researchers from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam has found that the T. Rex was about as fast as a human when it comes to walking speed.

The researchers believe that the ferocious dinosaur walked at a speed of about three miles per hour. To reach their conclusion, scientists analyzed the hip height, mass, and stride length of the dinosaur and researched its tail and how it may have carried its tail while walking. Researchers found that as the dinosaur walked, its tail would’ve moved up and down while passively suspended in the air.

The researchers used an adult T. Rex specimen named “Trix” and reconstructed the bone and ligament structure of its tail. The walking speed was determined by combining that information with what is known about step frequency and step length. Researchers on the project are clear that their research doesn’t answer all the questions about the T. Rex.

The team points out that gate reconstruction of dinosaurs has multiple inherent uncertainties. The team says it’s important to compare results from different methods to find a converging point. Researchers also point out that while the tail of the T. Rex may have slowed it down when walking, it could’ve helped it go faster when it ran.

Waters says judge in Chauvin trial who criticized her protest remarks was 'angry' and 'frustrated'

By Kelly Mena, CNN
 Sat April 24, 2021

(CNN)Rep. Maxine Waters on Saturday called the judge overseeing former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin's trial in the death of George Floyd "angry" and "frustrated" in response to his recent criticism that her comments at a protest could be grounds for appealing a verdict.

"I think he was angry. I think he may be frustrated with this case and how much world publicity is on it and all of that," Waters told CNN's Jim Acosta on "Newsroom."

Waters, last weekend, ahead of a verdict in the case, had called for protesters to "stay on the street" and "get more confrontational" if Chauvin were acquitted in Floyd's killing, comments immediately seized on by Republicans who claimed that Waters was inciting violence. The California Democrat said she was in Brooklyn Center, Minnesota, to show her support for protesters amid ongoing protests over the police killing of Daunte Wright and to also support his family.

After closing arguments in Chauvin's trial the following Monday, Judge Peter Cahill rejected a defense request for a mistrial over the publicity of the case, including TV shows and comments by Waters. Chauvin was eventually found guilty on Tuesday of all three charges against him, including second-degree unintentional murder, third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter. The jurors deliberated for more than 10 hours over two days before coming to their decision.


"I talked with a lot of legal scholars and lawyers and of course he was way off track. He knows that in fact, the jurors were not in the room. The jurors had an oath not to look at television, not to read the newspapers, not to engage with people on this. So he knows that there was no interference with the jurors," added Waters defending her comments.
"[T]o say that I'm going to cause an appeal really is not credible. And whether or not they have an appeal, even if they mention my name, like the judge says, my comments don't matter anyway," Waters noted.

Congresswoman says she receives death threats often

The congresswoman, pressed by Acosta on her recent op-ed in the Los Angeles Times, then went on to say that she receives death threats often.

In the piece, Waters says: "Now, because of who I am, the right wing and members of Congress who subscribe to the views of groups like QAnon, the Oath Keepers, the Proud Boys and the KKK have targeted me."

When asked whether she believes the Republican members of Congress referenced in her piece are non-violent, Waters responded with: "Well no, what is very interesting is I am threatened to be killed very often and so we are reporting to the Capitol Police and they are investigating all these attempts to kill me -- not attempts, but people who are calling in saying that they are going to kill me."

CNN has reached out to the US Capitol Police for comment.

Additionally, in the op-ed the congresswoman defends herself as being "nonviolent" and slams critics of her protest remarks calling it a "blatant distortion of the truth." She defended herself again on Saturday.

"So when you talk about violence, and you look at them and their alignment and you look at what happened January 6 when the domestic terrorists -- who are their friends -- broke into our Capitol and beat up police officers and caused one police death, and others to be harmed ... then I think people whether they like me or not will know their arguments are not credible," Water said.

 India: Rich Flee on Private Jets As COVID-19 Cases Hits Global Record  

REMINDS ME OF

  

PM Modi says India shaken by coronavirus 'storm', US readies help
25 April 2021

India set a new global record of the most number of Covid-19 infections in a day, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday urged all citizens to be vaccinated and exercise caution, saying the "storm" of infections had shaken the country.

In this picture taken on April 23, 2021, relatives wait next to a Covid-19 coronavirus patient laying on a stretcher in a hospital complex for admission in New Delhi. Photo: AFP

The United States said it was deeply concerned by the massive surge in coronavirus cases in India and was racing to send aid.

India's number of cases surged by 349,691 in the past 24 hours, the fourth straight day of record peaks, and hospitals in Delhi and across the country are turning away patients after running out of medical oxygen and beds.

"We were confident, our spirits were up after successfully tackling the first wave, but this storm has shaken the nation," Modi said in a radio address.

Modi's government has faced criticism that it let its guard down, allowed big religious and political gatherings to take place when India's cases plummeted to below 10,000 a day and did not plan on building up the healthcare systems.

Hospitals and doctors have put out urgent notices that they were unable to cope with the rush of patients.

People were arranging stretchers and oxygen cylinders outside hospitals as they desperately pleaded for authorities to take patients in, Reuters photographers said.

"Every day, it's the same situation, we are left with two hours of oxygen, we only get assurances from the authorities," one doctor said on television.

Outside a Sikh temple in Ghaziabad city on the outskirts of Delhi the street resembled an emergency ward of a hospital, but cramed with cars carrying Covid-19 patients gasping for breath as they were hooked up to hand held oxygen tanks.

Delhi's Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal extended a lockdown in the capital that was due to end on Monday for a week to try and stem the transmission of the virus which is killing one person every four minutes.

"A lockdown was the last weapon we had to deal with the coronavirus but with cases rising so quickly we had to use this weapon," he said.

A Covid19 coronavirus patient is helped by her relatives as she leaves a hospital in New Delhi on April 24. Photo: AFP

India's total tally of infections stands at 16.96 million and deaths 192,311 after 2767 more died overnight, health ministry data showed.

In the last month alone, daily cases have gone up eight times and deaths by 10 times. Health experts say the death count is probably far higher.

The country of 1.3 billion people is on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe, Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, warned in an op-ed published Saturday in the Washington Post.

"Our hearts go out to the Indian people in the midst of the horrific Covid-19 outbreak," US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Twitter.

"We are working closely with our partners in the Indian government, and we will rapidly deploy additional support to the people of India and India's health care heroes."

The United States has faced criticism in India for its export controls on raw materials for vaccines put in place via the Defense Production Act and an associated export embargo in February.

The Serum Institute of India (SII), the world's biggest vaccine maker, this month urged US President Joe Biden to lift the embargo on US exports of raw materials that is hurting its production of AstraZeneca shots.

Others such as US Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi urged the Biden administration to release unused vaccines to India.

"When people in India and elsewhere desperately need help, we can't let vaccines sit in a warehouse, we need to get them where they'll save lives," he said.

India's surge is expected to peak in mid-May with the daily count of infections reaching half a million, the Indian Express said citing an internal government assessment.

Covid-task force leader V.K. Paul made the presentation during a meeting with Modi and state chief ministers and said that the health infrastructure in heavily populated states is not adequate enough to cope, according to the newspaper.

Paul did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

- Reuters

China offers to help India tackle Covid-19 outbreak after US vaccine snub

APRIL 25, 2021

ByRACHEL ZHANGSOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

A funeral service is held in New Delhi as the number of cases in the country continues to rise. Photo: Reuters

CHINA - China has offered to help India battle its Covid-19 outbreak after the United States declined a request to lift a ban on exporting vaccine raw materials.

The olive branch from the Chinese foreign ministry comes as tensions between the two nations continue to run high along their disputed border .More from AsiaOneRead the condensed version of this story, and other top stories with NewsLite.

“The Chinese government and people firmly support the Indian government and people in fighting the coronavirus. China is ready to provide support and help according to India’s needs, and is in communication with the Indian side on this,” foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Friday.

India is currently battling the world’s highest number of cases , with a record 346,786 new cases reported on Saturday, and its hospital system is on the edge of collapse due to shortages of intensive care beds, medical supplies and oxygen.

India is also running low on vaccines and has asked the US to lift an export ban on the raw materials needed to make them, but Washington declined saying it had a responsibility to look after the American people first.

“It is, of course, not only in our interest to see Americans vaccinated, it’s in the interests of the rest of the world to see Americans vaccinated,” said the US State Department spokesman Ned Price on Thursday.


But the Chinese offer to help comes despite the ongoing tensions along their disputed border following a deadly clash last summer and with little apparent progress in the most recent round of talks between the two countries’ militaries.

“India’s supplies of raw materials for vaccine production from the US and Europe are currently restricted. It desperately needs other countries’ help with the pandemic,” said Niu Haibin, deputy director of the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies.

“This is also an opportunity for both sides to mend bilateral relations”.

China has consistently denied that it is using offers to supply other countries with vaccines to extend its geopolitical influence.

However, the United States, India, Australia and Japan – the so-called Quad – recently promised to deliver a billion doses of Covid-19 throughout the Indo-Pacific by the end of next year in a move that was widely seen as an effort to counter Chinese in the region.

Niu said China is not deliberately using the pandemic for diplomatic purposes, but cooperation with other nations would increase its influence.

Raj Verma, an associate professor of international relations at Huaqiao University in Fujian, said that because Chinese vaccines have not been approved for use in India, people there would be reluctant to receive them.

But he said there were other ways China could help.

“India is making efforts to garner oxygen cylinders from across the globe,” he said. “However, the overall bilateral relationship will still be tense and the prevailing mistrust on both sides will continue”.

Li Hongmei, a research fellow at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, said: “China’s statement shows that it does not link the border issue closely with overall relations with India, and that China expects bilateral relations can be improved.

“I think China is willing to help India by substantial actions, rather than making empty gestures.”

BUT WHAT DID NOSTRODAMUS SAY?!

A book published almost 25 years ago predicted that the 'Next New Deal' would follow a period of great social unrest in 2020 - and that millennials would take the reins after decades of boomer rule

hhoffower@businessinsider.com (Hillary Hoffower,Ben Winc

© Provided by Business Insider Could President Joe Biden be the "gray champion" of the Fourth Turning? Pool/Getty Images

A generational theory written in 1997 predicted America would see the climax of a crisis in 2020.

As the climax turned toward resolution, a "Next New Deal" would reshape the economy and give millennials a brighter future.

A "gray champion" would usher in this new economic zeitgeist. Could that be Biden?

America is currently in the midst of a millennial vs. boomer showdown - and a "gray champion" is arriving to usher in the "Next New Deal."

So says an eerie generational theory known as the Fourth Turning, which was coined in 1997 by Neil Howe and William Strauss in an eponymous book. The theory proposes that America sees a "turning" every 20 years as one generation displaces another, and that this dynamic between the two creates a crisis every 80 years.

Each crisis is marked by four stages: a catalyst event that sets the wheels in motion; a regeneracy in which people stop tolerating weakening institutions and splintering culture; a climax that "shakes society to its roots," transforms institutions, and redirects purpose; and a resolution that sees the economy entirely restructured for a new set of circumstances.

It's an outlandish theory and the book has also been widely criticized for its lack of scientific support and vague predictions. But it's also resonated among conservative and liberal leaders alike, and bears uncanny parallels to American history.

The last fourth turnings, Howe and Strauss argued, culminated in World War II, the Civil War, and the American Revolution. They wrote that the next crisis-era would involve millennials and boomers fighting over the shape of the world to come, with the catalyst event beginning around 2005, and the climax around 2020, with a resolution by 2026.

© Leah Millis/Reuters Political riots, social unrest, and a pandemic resemble the climax depicted in "The Fourth Turning." Leah Millis/Reuters

The 2008 financial crisis can be seen as the catalyst they mentioned, while the pandemic, social unrest, and riots of 2020 and early 2021 sound a lot like the climax. During this climax, they wrote, the economy could "reach a trough that may look to be the start of the depression," and indeed, the stock-market crash of 2020 was the sharpest and deepest since at least the 1930s. The economy will recover, per the theory, but it will fundamentally change after this period.

Enter the Biden administration, whose ambitious social programs and big spending have triggered comparisons to FDR's New Deal. Some leading political experts agree that this era is historic and climactic. For instance, Doug Sosnik, senior adviser to the Brunswick Group, and political director for former President Bill Clinton, released a presentation in April pronouncing that not only is America going through its biggest transformation since the industrial revolution of the 19th century, but "the current period of turmoil and chaos that began in the early 2000s will likely continue throughout this decade."

The challenge, Sosnik wrote, will be the transition from a 20th-century top-down industrial economy to a 21st-century digital and global one. In other words, this period could be a "great gate of history," just as Strauss and Howe wrote.
Forgoing Obama-era rules for a bolder approach

The Fourth Turning predicts the agenda of the Next New Deal will center around young adults, with boomers imposing a "new duty of compulsory service" and millennials recognizing this as a path to public achievement. The government's economic role, per the theory, will shift away from amenities and past promises such as elder care and debt service and toward spending on survival and future promises, such as defense and public works.

President Joe Biden signaled early on that he wouldn't bow to the worries over the national debt that dominated much of the last 20 years (ie, the third turning). The president unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package one week before his inauguration, urging Congress to pass another round of relief checks, extend bolstered unemployment benefits, and fund the distribution of coronavirus vaccines.

© Provided by Business Insider President Joe Biden signs three documents including an Inauguration declaration, cabinet nominations and sub-cabinet nominations on January 20, 2021. JIM LO SCALZO/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

For the first time in a generation, economists and consumers alike have since become worried about inflation, and whether such a large boost was even needed as vaccines started to reach Americans' arms.

Where the Obama administration shrank its proposal to appease Republicans and moderate Democrats, Biden stuck with his plan to "go big" and, for the time being, ignore its impact on the government debt.

"A new resolve about urgent public goals crowds out qualms about questionable public means," Strauss and Howe wrote. "Instead of coaxing people with promises of minimal sacrifice, they summon them with warnings of maximal sacrifice."

This could only be the beginning of the Biden-led resolution. For his second act, could we meet the "Gray Champion?"

Spending big on a new age of American infrastructure

The authors predicted that a key component of the Next New Deal would be a new era for infrastructure: "Fourth Turning America will begin to lay out the next saeculum's infrastructure grid - some higher-tech facsimile of turnpikes, railroads, or highways. Through the Fourth Turning, the old order will die, but only after having produced the seed containing the new civic order within it."

That's exactly what Biden is proposing, arguing explicitly in the rollout of his $2.3 trillion package that now is the time to rethink infrastructure for the first time in decades. It includes funds for nationwide broadband and green energy projects as well as more "traditional" infrastructure such as rebuilding roads and bridges.

"With the 1936 Rural Electrification Act, the federal government made a historic investment in bringing electricity to nearly every home and farm in America, and millions of families and our economy reaped the benefits," reads a White House fact sheet on the plan. "Broadband internet is the new electricity."

"It's big, yes. It's bold, yes. And we can get it done," Biden said as he unveiled the package. "The divisions of the moment shouldn't stop us from doing the right thing for the future." He also called it a "once-in-a-generation investment in America."

That isn't all the administration has on the docket. The president is expected to reveal another $1.5 trillion in spending before he addresses a joint session of Congress on April 28. The plan is set to include funds for child care, universal pre-K, and paid family and medical leave.

These two packages look a lot like the spending on "public works" and "future promises" that Howe and Strauss predicted would make up the Next New Deal, in some ways they even surpass FDR's New Deal programs. Leonard Burman, a professor of behavioral economics at Syracuse University's Maxwell School, told Insider's Juliana Kaplan that compared to FDR, the country has "never done" a package the size of Biden's proposals. Unlike Biden, he said FDR "spent much less than would have been appropriate for the size of the economic downturn at that point."

© Provided by Business Insider Biden has framed his American Job Plan as a reimagining of US infrastructure. Alex Wong/Getty Images

Taken together, Biden's proposals place the country on the brink of a new policy regime. The fierce debate over this new regime is where the millennial versus boomer conflict reaches its fever pitch.

"In the Fourth Turning, boomers are likely to occupy the vortex of a downward economic spiral," the authors wrote, as "the truth will dawn on old boomers that the money simply won't be there to support their accustomed consumption." But it predicted that millennials will come out of this with a brighter future, as they come to embody a "new American mainstream."

Helping the millennials along the way will be a particular figure, Howe and Strauss wrote.

Eight or nine decades after his last appearance in a similar gate of history, the coauthors predicted, America will be visited by "the figure of an ancient man," one who combines aspects of "the leader and the saint" to lead the way toward resolution. They called that character the Gray Champion, and said he would be the one to usher in a new economic zeitgeist.

The 78-year-old Biden, who became America's oldest president when he was elected in 2020, has several of these attributes, including devout Catholic faith, a biography marked by perseverance through several personal tragedies, and a distinct sense of empathy in his public remarks. And when he introduced his infrastructure plan last month, he promised a new economic "paradigm" for the country. This could just be the beginning.

Read the original article on Business Insider

WILL GERMANY HAVE THE FIRST GREEN GOVERNMENT

Germany's Greens ahead of Merkel's CDU/CSU in new poll

The Greens have recorded their best polls in history, surpassing the ruling conservatives. The development sparked accusations that the party's candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock, lacks experience.


Five months out from federal elections, the Greens are polling ahead of Merkel's conservatives. GREEN LEADER  Annalena Baerbock SPEAKIN G

Germany's Green party is more popular than German Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU bloc, according to a new opinion poll published on Sunday.

The Greens polled at 28%, up 6 percentage points, according to the Kantar research group's Sunday trend poll carried out on behalf of tabloid Bild am Sonntag.

The newspaper reported that this was the Green's highest-ever poll rating in the history of the Sunday trend polls.

Watch video00:33 Baerbock: We must make changes to create a fair country

Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) fell two percentage points to 27%.

The Social Democrats (SPD), who share power in a coalition government with the conservatives, also lost two points, slipping to 13%. This was their lowest result since August 2019.

The socialist Left party polled at 7%, and the far-right, populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) recorded 10% — both down one point.

The pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) remained at 9%.

Kantar surveyed 1,225 people for the poll between April 15 and 21.

WHO COULD SUCCEED ANGELA MERKEL AS GERMAN CHANCELLOR?

Armin Laschet

CDU chairman Armin Laschet, a staunch supporter of Angela Merkel, heads Germany's most populous state. Conservatives routinely underestimated the jovial 60-year-old, famous for his belief in integration and compromise. But recently, his liberal non-interventionist instincts have led to him eating his words more than once during the coronavirus crisis. PHOTOS 123

New chancellor candidate

The poll results come after the Greens appointed Annalena Baerbock as their chancellor candidate for the September elections.

The CDU/CSU bloc has chosen Armin Laschet to be its chancellor candidate, rejecting Bavarian Premier Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. The center-left SPD put forward Olaf Scholz, who is currently serving as vice-chancellor.

Germans will head to the polls in five months for national elections to replace Merkel, who has held power for more than 15 years.

SPD's Scholz points to Baerbock's inexperience

Baerbock would have a strong chance in a head-to-head battle for the chancellory, according to another survey published by Bild.

Talking to Bild's Sunday edition, however, Scholz claimed the race was still open to him despite trailing the two top candidates.

"Germany is one of the world's biggest and most successful industrial countries. It should be run by someone who has experience in governing, who not only wants to govern, but can actually do it," Scholz said.

"I am the candidate for chancellor who has the necessary experience and knowledge for this task," he added.
Greens welcome new members

Meanwhile, Green party membership has surged, with a record 2,159 people signing up in the past week, according to party officials.

The Greens recently appointed Annalena Baerbock as their chancellor candidate for the September elections

"Recently, the Greens have managed to win over voters from the CDU/CSU, the SPD, the Left party, but also non-voters," Kantar researcher Torsten Schneider-Haase said. "They're taking on topics that are currently booming."

He said Baerbock had also benefited from the weaknesses of her two competitors.

Party official Michael Kellner told the dpa news agency: "Now is the right time for a new departure in this country, to protect the climate, reduce inequality and start a new Europe."

CSU leader Söder said he expects the CDU/CSU to win more than 30% of votes in the September elections.

"It has to be a result that is clearly above 30% — closer to 35%," the Bavarian premier told the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

In the 2017 election, the sister parties won a combined 32.9%.

VIDEOS

Germany′s Greens ahead of Merkel′s CDU/CSU in new poll | News | DW | 25.04.2021

Germany: Greens' Annalena Baerbock urges hard line on Russia, China

The Greens chancellor candidate for the upcoming federal elections has said she wants a tougher stance from Germany to address Russian aggression in Ukraine and China's global ambitions

On the controversial Nord Stream 2 Russian gas pipeline across the Baltic seabed to Germany, Baerbock said that political support for the project must be "withdrawn." 

Annalena Baerbock has said she wants a foreign policy based on toughness combined with dialogue

Five months ahead of Germany's federal election, top Greens candidate Annalena Baerbock is arguing for a tougher German stance toward Russia and China.

In an interview Sunday with Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) newspaper, Baerbock said "increasing the pressure on Russia" over its recent military maneuvers near Ukraine should be a priority for Germany.

Baerbock added that that ensuring stability immediately between Ukraine and Russia should take priority over Ukraine's ambition to be included in the EU and NATO.

On the controversial Nord Stream 2 Russian gas pipeline across the Baltic seabed to Germany, Baerbock said that political support for the project must be "withdrawn." The Greens oppose the gas pipeline project, which critics say will weaken Europe and Germany's energy security.

Watch video 00:33 'We must make changes to create a fair country'

After Baerbock's candidacy for chancellor was announced last Monday, she said that Germany needs a "clearly guided foreign policy" with "authoritarian forces" that focuses on "dialogue" but is "tough" at the sameompetition with China

Baerbock said German and European relations with China are a "competition of systems" that place "authoritarian forces versus liberal democracies." She described China's ambitious "Belt and Road" projects as part of "hardcore power politics."

She added that China is too big to simply cut off ties, but emphasized that liberal democracies must uphold their values.

On security concerns with Chinese technology, Baerbook said she would support Europe limiting cooperation if Beijing were to require Chinese suppliers, such as Huawei, to tap into European data. "We cannot integrate products from such manufacturers into European infrastructure," she said.

On China and the plight of the Uyghur ethnic minority, Baerbock said Europe must ensure that "products from forced labor do not come onto our market."

Baerbock was referring to recent controversy over the sourcing of cotton from China's Xinjiang region, which human rights groups say is harvested using Uyghur slave labor.

Italian star singer Milva dies aged 81

The genre-crossing Italian chanteuse, known for her vocal range and red hair, took Europe by storm in the 1960s and '70s. Her career spanned decades.

Singer Milva passed away aged 81 on April 23, 2021


Milva, an Italian chanson and pop music singer popular in the 1960s and 1970s, passed away Friday at her home in Milan, Italy, aged 81. Born Maria Ilva Biolcati, the singer was often referred to as "La Rossa," meaning "redhead" in Italian, for the color of her fiery red locks.

With an active career spanning decades, Milva was a musical great in her home country. Italy's Minister of Culture, Dario Franceschini, called her "one of the strongest interpreters of Italian songs." Her voice awakened "intense emotions" in entire generations and upheld the reputation of Italy, he said Saturday after news of her death broke.

Yet her fame was not limited to Italy. Her penchant for singing in foreign languages led to her success around the world — she released songs in English, German, French, Spanish, Greek, Portuguese and Japanese.

Milva collaborated with tango music great, Astor Piazzaolla

She had an especially large fan base in Germany, where she gained fame with sophisticated easy listening tracks. Her song "Hurra, wir leben noch" ("Hurray, we're still alive"), was an especially big hit. A fan of collaborations, Milva recorded songs with Greek composer Mikis Theodorakis, as well as famed film score composer Ennio Morricone.

Milva sang with Argentine tango music composer Astor Piazzolla, who died in 1992, and began a long-lasting collaboration with her compatriot, the innovative singer-songwriter Franco Battiato with whom she recorded an album.  

A career to envy

Maria Ilva Biolcati was born on July 17, 1939, to a dressmaker and a fisherman in the small town of Goro in Italy's Emilia-Romagna region on the Adriatic coast. As a child, she worked to support her family, which experienced economic hardship.

Eventually, she moved to Bologna, entered a singing competition and received vocal and acting lessons. From then on, her career was enviable. She recorded dozens of albums, went on tours and appeared on the stages of theaters and concert halls around the world. Between 1961 and 2007, she performed 15 times at Italy's most important pop festival in San Remo, but never won it.

Milva sang a variety of musical genres throughout her long career

For over 50 years, Milva worked tirelessly, recording 173 albums that spanned a wide range of repertoire. Her daughter Martina was born in 1963 but Milva had little time for family life and her daughter often had to go without her famous mother.

Milva had no qualms about breaking away from chanson and commercial music. She toured the world's opera houses and theaters with performances of songs by Kurt Weill and Bertold Brecht. Her rendition of the role of Pirate Jenny in Brecht's "Threepenny Opera" helped make her an icon in the world of musical theater. She gave concerts at the Scala in Milan, the Paris Opera, London's Royal Albert Hall and the Deutsche Oper in Berlin. She alsosangin operas by avant-garde composer Luciano Berio and even dabbled in work as an actress. She landed a supporting role in Wim Wenders' 1987 masterpiece "Wings of Desire

Seeing red

The singer was open about her leftist political views and charmed the working-class milieu with her political chansons, including the famous partisan hymn "Bella Ciao," which was a constant in her repertoire. Her nickname "La Rossa" was also an allusion to the color associated with her political commitments.

In 2010, Milva left the stage and said farewell to her fans in a letter posted on social media. "I did my job gracefully and probably well," she wrote. Milva said she decided to take this step because she was no longer able to continue her career "in the best way possible."

Milva is survived by her daughter Martina.

Fact check: 5 myths about the Chernobyl nuclear disaster

Monday marks the 35th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. What happened in the former Soviet Union on April 26, 1986, is no longer a secret.


The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone is off-limits to most people

Is Chernobyl the biggest-ever nuclear disaster?

The 1986 nuclear disaster at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant near the city of Pripyat in northern Ukraine is often described as the worst nuclear accident in history. However, rarely is this sensational depiction clarified in more detail.

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) does classify nuclear events on a scale of zero to seven, breaking them down into accidents, incidents and anomalies. It was introduced in 1990 after being developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (NEA/OECD). Level seven denotes a "major accident," which means "major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures."

Watch video 01:59 Ukraine still dealing with Chernobyl aftermath

Both the Chernobyl and 2011 Fukushima disaster have been categorized as such. But INES does not allow for nuclear events to be classified within a level.

If the term nuclear disaster is not only used to describe events, or accidents, in nuclear reactors but also radioactive emissions caused by humans then there are many occasions when human-caused nuclear contamination has been greater than that of the Chernobyl disaster, explained Kate Brown, professor of science, technology and society at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

"Let's take the production of plutonium," she told DW, referring to the American and Soviet plants that produced plutonium at the center of a nuclear bomb. "Those plants each issued as part of the normal working everyday order at least 350 million curies [a unit of radioactivity — Editor's note] into the surrounding environment. And that was not an accident.

Some parts of the exclusion zone will continue to be contaminated for some 24,000 years

"Let's look at, even more dire, the issuance of radioactive fallout in the detonation of nuclear bombs during the periods of nuclear testing ground, which were located throughout the world, " she continued. "Those just take one isotope, one radioactive iodine, which is harmful to human health because it's taken up by the human thyroid, causing thyroid cancer or thyroid disease.

"Chernobyl issued 45 million curies of radioactive iodine just in two years of testing, in 1961 and 1962. The Soviets and the Americans issued not 45 million curies, but 20 billion curies of radioactive iodine," she said. And these tests, she added, were by design — not due to an accident or human error.

Are there mutants in the exclusion zone?

One of the most popular questions for tour guides in the , the area around the former nuclear reactor, is whether there are mutants. Computer games, horror films and books have propagated this notion, but it is misguided.

Denis Vishnevsky, head of the department of ecology, flora and fauna of the Chernobyl Radiation and Ecological Biosphere Reserve, reassured DW that he had never seen any two-headed wolves or five-legged rodents.

Animals living in the exclusion zone may have a lower life expectancy

"The influence of ionizing radiation may cause some restructuring in the body, but mostly it simply reduces an organism's viability," he explained, giving the example of high embryo fatalities in rodents due to genomic defects that prevented the organism from functioning. Those animals that survive the womb sometimes have disabilities that prevent them from staying alive in the wild. Vishnevsky and his colleagues have conducted research into thousands of animals in the exclusion zone, but have not found any unusual morphological alterations.

"Why? Because we were always dealing with animals that had survived and had won the fight for survival," he said. He added that it was difficult to compare these animals with creatures that scientists had deliberately exposed to radiation in laboratories.
Has nature reclaimed the site of the disaster?

Reports entitled "Life Flourishing Around Chernobyl" and photo series suggesting that the exclusion zone has become a "natural paradise" might give the impression that nature has recovered from the nuclear disaster. But Brown, who has been researching Chernobyl for 25 years, is adamant that this is "not true."

"That's a very seductive idea, that human messed up nature and all they have to do is step away and nature rewrites itself," she said. In reality, however, biologists say that there are fewer species of insects, birds and mammals than before the disaster. The fact that some endangered species can be found in the exclusion zone is not evidence of the area's health and vitality.

Watch video 03:45 Nature is taking back Chernobyl

On the contrary: there has been a significant increase in the mortality rate and a lowered life expectancy in the animal population, with more tumors and immune defects, disorders of the blood and circulatory system and early ageing.

Scientists have attributed the apparent natural diversity to species migration and the vastness of the area. "The exclusion zone comprises 2,600 square kilometers [about 1,000 square miles]. And to the north are another 2,000 square kilometers to the north is Belarus' exclusion zone," said Vishnevsky. "There are also areas to the east and west where the human population density is extremely low. We have a huge potential for preserving local wild fauna." That includes lynxes, bears and wolves which need a great deal of space.

But even 35 years after the disaster the land is still contaminated by radiation, a third of it by transuranium elements with a half-life of more than 24,000 years.
Is it safe for tourists to visit Chernobyl?

The exclusion zone was already a magnet for disaster tourists, but in 2019 annual numbers doubled to 124,000 after the success of the HBO miniseries Chernobyl. The State Agency of Ukraine on Exclusion Zone Management has set up a number of routes so tourists can visit the region by land, water or air. It has also drawn up a number of regulations to protect visitors, stipulating that people must be covered from head to toe. They shouldn't eat any food or drink outside, and they should always follow official paths. It's estimated that the radiation dose received over a one-day visit does not exceed 0.1 millisievert (mSv) — roughly the same dose that a passenger would be exposed to on a long-distance flight from Germany to Japan, according to Germany's Federal Office for Radiation Protection.

Some medical uses might expose a patient to much higher doses. Sven Dokter, the spokesman for the German nuclear safety organization Global Research for Safety (GRS), said that the dose of an effective pelvic X-ray ranged from 0.3 to 0.7 mSv, while a CT scan of the chest ranged from 4 to 7 mSv.

Watch video 05:23 Chernobyl as a tourist attraction

Dokter said a visit to the exclusion zone would not cause any undue harm if visitors paid attention to the rules and took an official tour.

"We're a long way off from the doses needed for a warning against such visits to be issued," he told DW. "On average in Germany a person receives a radiation dose of over 4 mSv per year. Half of this is from the natural radiation that we're always exposed to and the other half comes from standard medical procedures and flights."

The IAEA also has no qualms: "One may certainly visit the Chernobyl area, including even the exclusion zone, which is a 30-kilometer radius surrounding the plant, all of whose reactors are now closed. Although some of the radioactive isotopes released into the atmosphere still linger (such as Strontium-90 and Caesium-137), they are at tolerable exposure levels for limited periods of time," said the organization's website.
Are there people living in the area?

Today, Pripyat, the closed city built to serve the nuclear plant and house its employees, is often described as a ghost town, as is the nearby city of Chernobyl.

However, neither has been entirely empty since 1986. Thousands of people, usually men, have stayed there, often working two-week shifts and ensuring that the crucial infrastructure in both cities continues to function. After the explosion in reactor No. 4, reactors 1, 2 and 3 continued to operate, closing down only in 1991, 1996 and 2000. Special units of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry police the zone. There are also stores and at least two hotels in Chernobyl, which are mainly for business visitors.

There are also a number of unofficial inhabitants, including people who used to live in the area and have chosen to return. They have settled in villages that were evacuated after the disaster. The exact number of people is unknown: when DW asked the State Agency of Ukraine on Exclusion Zone Management how many people lived in Chernobyl, the official answer was "nobody."

In 2016, about 180 people were thought to be living in the entire exclusion zone. Because they tended to be older, this number may well have fallen. Even though these locals are officially only tolerated, the state does support them in their everyday lives. Their pensions are delivered once a month, and every two to three months they are supplied with food by a mobile store.

This article has been translated from German.

CHERNOBYL: THE PEOPLE WHO'VE STAYED

The contagious optimism of Baba Gania

Baba Gania (left) is 86 years old. She survived her husband who died a decade ago. For the past 25 years, Gania has taken care of her mentally disabled sister Sonya (right). "I am not afraid of radiation. I boil the mushrooms till all the radiation is gone!" she says proudly. Photographer Alina Rudya visited her several times over the past years: "She is the warmest and kindest person I know."  PHOTOS 12345678910

Indonesia: Submarine wreckage located on seafloor

Indonesia's military says there is no hope of finding survivors from a submarine that sank last week with 53 people on board. President Joko Widodo has sent his condolences to the crew's families.


The submarine has broken into at least three pieces


Rescue teams located the missing Indonesian submarine on Sunday, authorities said.

Navy Chief of Staff Yudo Margono said the submarine had been broken into three pieces.

"With this authentic proof, we can confirm that KRI Nanggala 402 has sunk and all of its 53 sailors have died on duty," Air Marshall Hadi Tjahjanto told a press conference.

Underwater drone images showed the wreckage on the seafloor. It was found by a Singaporean craft about 1,500 meters (5,000 feet) to the south of where it last dove.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo earlier offered his condolences to the families of those lost in a submarine accident four days ago.

He confirmed that the KRI Nanggala 402 submarine sank, and that the 53 crew members are presumed to have died.

"All of us Indonesians express our deep sorrow over this tragedy, especially to the families of the submarine crew," he said.

He said rescuers were still expending their best efforts to recover the craft and its crew. He offered his hopes and prayers, and wished the families patience and strength.


How did the submarine go missing?

The 44-year-old West-German-built submarine lost contact while taking part in torpedo drills off the coast of Bali on Wednesday.

It failed to surface and only had enough oxygen for the crew to survive up to 72 hours.

Rescue teams announced on Saturday they had found objects such as prayer mat fragments, a piece of the torpedo system and a bottle of periscope lubricant near the submarine's last known location.

This led them to believe that the vessel had broken open.

Watch video 01:15 Indonesia's navy declares missing sub as 'sunken vessel'

Navy Chief of Staff Yudo Margono later announced that sonar scans had detected a submarine-like object 850 meters (2,790 feet) underwater, well beyond the diving range of the craft.

Ships and helicopters from Australia, the United States, Singapore, Malaysia and India are helping in the search effort.

aw/mm (AFP, AP, Reuters, dpa)

AS A STEAM/POWER ENGINEER SUBS OF COURSE ARE IN MY FIELD AND HAVE ALWAYS FACISINATED ME SINCE VOYARE TO THE BOTTOM OF THE SEA AND OF COURSE 20,000 LEAGUES UNDER THE SEA.

  

The COVID variant from India: What we know so far

The latest variant of the COVID-19 coronavirus, dubbed B.1.617, was first found in India and then in other countries around the world. It is still unclear how dangerous it is.



There have been at least five major mutations of the COVID-19 coronavirus

The number of new coronavirus infections has continued to rise sharply in India. The country has just recorded the world's highest daily tally of 314,835 infectionsamong its total population of 1.38 billion people.

It's too early to say whether the new variant of the virus, B.1.617, is responsible for the rapid increase in infections, but it is being treated as a possible cause.
What role do virus variants play?

In many other cases and countries, new variants have played a role when infections took a sudden, upward swing.

Some experts are also concerned that the Indian variant may be turning into a type of "super mutation" that will continue to spread across the world.

Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said that he is "deeply concerned" about the situation in India, the WHO tweeted.

And the Indian variant has spread to other countries. Health authorities have detected variant B.1.617 in Germany, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, the US, Australia and Singapore. The British health ministry has reported 77 cases of the Indian variant.

A new variant of coronavirus is causing concern in India
Why would the Indian variant become dangerous?

The Indian variant consists of two mutations of the spike protein of the virus.

A spike protein allows a virus to enter the body and infect it. The virus can then spread quickly through the body, if it escapes any antibodies in the immune system or those developed as a result of a vaccine — or, indeed, if there aren't any antibodies.

Experts say there is a risk that people, who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection, or those who have been vaccinated, may not be as resilient against this new variant as they may be against other forms of the virus.

What's special about the Indian variant?

The mutations found in the Indian variant are identified as E484Q and E484K.

They are known in other mutations as well — they are not entirely new. They have been detected in the South African variant, B.1.353, and in the Brazilian variant, P1.

In some cases, the Indian mutations were detected in the British variant, B.1.1.7.

There are other mutations, such as one called L452R, which is detected in a Californian variant of the virus, B.1.429. The same was found in a variant in Germany.


The Indian variant of coronavirus has already reached Europe
Of interest or of concern?

The WHO categorizes the Indian variant as a "Variant of Interest." That means the variant is being monitored, but that it is, for the time being, not of major concern.

Dr Jeffrey Barrett, director of the COVID-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in the UK, has commented that the Indian variant has spread at such low levels over the past few months, and that makes it "likely not to be as transmissible as B.1.1.7."

But a number of other experts see the threat differently. And current developments appear to suggest they may be right.

In the Indian state of Maharashtra, over 60% of all coronavirus infections have been linked to the n.ew B.1.617 variant, based on the infections that have been sequenced for their origin.

But local authorities say the number of cases being sequenced is far too low for them to draw any clear conclusions.

As such, it remains unclear whether the Indian variant is responsible for the increase in infections in India