Mapping the complexities of Turkey's new Syria offensive

Analysis: Driven by domestic concerns and shifting geopolitics, any large-scale Turkish military operation in Syria comes with risks and complications.


James Snell
08 June, 2022

For months, even years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened that Turkey's armed forces and their Syrian rebel allies will launch a new attack on areas currently controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The group is dominated by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), the armed forces of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

The PKK is locked in an armed struggle with Turkey, and for Erdogan, the existence of any PKK enclave in Syria is a threat to Turkey and to his government.

Similarly, within Turkey, domestic politics is affected by the continued presence of Syrian refugees, who live in Turkey in their millions.

"Erdogan has announced a policy of securing and developing rebel-held parts of Idlib, Hama, and Aleppo provinces in Syria's northwest, with the intention of deporting Syrians resident in Turkey there"

Domestic opponents of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) blame the government's Syria policy for the continued presence of refugees, who are targets for harassment and attacks within Turkey.

Erdogan has announced a policy of securing and developing rebel-held parts of Idlib, Hama, and Aleppo provinces in Syria's northwest, with the intention of deporting Syrians resident in Turkey there.

Millions of displaced Syrians from other parts of the country now controlled by the regime of Bashar al-Assad already inhabit Idlib.

These areas are not safe, with an Islamic State (IS) insurgency and resistance from YPG-affiliated groups. Similarly, the residents of Turkish-occupied Syria have in recent weeks protested against the presence of Turkish troops, poor governance, and high food and fuel prices, which affect all of Syria.

Turkish military planners believe that the Kurdish-occupied northwest is the wellspring of some of these tensions and that increasing the Turkish buffer zone within Syria will pacify its border, and provide more territory into which Syrians currently resident in Turkey can be sent.

As a measure of the pressure on both northwest and northeast Syria on refugee movement, in January, the SDF administration attempted to expel Syrian Arabs from portions of its territory, if they did not have a card vouching for their presence.

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“Some AKP supporters are trying to square the circle by framing an operation on Tel Rifaat as creating space for the refugees to go home, but you only have to look at a map to see how small the area is; this is rationalisation, not reasoning,” Kyle Orton, an independent analyst, told The New Arab.

“Turkey has had chronic problems establishing governance in the areas of Syria it holds, and it seems unlikely adding to them will help that. The hopes from supporters of the Syrian revolution that this is a ‘first step’ towards restarting the anti-Assad war are, of course, delusion. Turkey ended its anti-Assad policy in 2016, and the ‘SNA’ will continue to be banned from engaging in offensive operations against the regime,” he added.

According to Suhail al-Ghazi, a Syrian researcher in Turkey, this is mainly happening because of internal Turkish politics.

“It helps with the Turkish plan to send refugees back and reduce the attack on TSK [Turkish armed forces]. Also, no political party except HDP doesn't support an operation against PKK\YPG elements,” al-Ghazi told TNA.

“However, Turkey and Russia didn't include their disagreements on other issues (Libya and Azerbaijan-Armenia) when discussing Syria so I don't think now there's a deal of Syria for Ukraine.”

Geopolitics have also created an opening for new Turkish movement. With Syria balanced between the forces and proxies of Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the country's civil war had largely frozen in place.

Turkey's armed forces have launched previous interventions against the YPG in Syria. [Getty]

But with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the defeating and bogging down of its forces, the Russian leg of the stool has weakened and sagged. Russian forces have reportedly been withdrawn from Syria to fight in Ukraine, as have its allied mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other private military companies.

With Russia less able to resist and with no power to renegotiate, Turkey is freer to pursue an armed solution to what its leaders consider intractable problems.

Turkey's armed forces have launched previous interventions against the YPG in Syria. In 2018, Turkey launched an operation in Afrin canton, followed in the year after by an operation into YPG-controlled northern Syria which established Turkish and allied control of a buffer zone south of the Turkish border.

Overt hostilities have decreased since, but low-level violence is constant. In parts of the region which remain YPG-ruled, including Manbij, Arab residents have protested and fought with authorities. Peace has never reigned.

Because Erdogan's threats to mount further military operations have been near-constant, it has been possible for the possible targets of a new offensive to believe that one might not come.

"Despite the scope of the Turkish operation apparently being mapped out by Erdogan, in practice, confusion predominates - not least geographically"

But now, after a formal announcement of a new Turkish attack on Manbij and Tel Rifaat in the northeast, Kurdish forces are scrambling to arm themselves and to court further international support.

The military leader of the SDF, the YPG general Mazloum Abdi, has claimed that the SDF would willingly ally with the Assad regime against any Turkish encroachment. This alignment has been possible for years; it is now more than likely.

Despite the scope of the Turkish operation apparently being mapped out by Erdogan, in practice, confusion predominates - not least geographically.

“I think this operation will only include Tel Rifaat where most of the attacks against the Turkish army are happening. Whether it will include Manbij it's still unlikely to happen,” al-Ghazi said.

Similarly unpredictable is the nature of resistance which may be offered by the YPG.

“The YPG doesn't have a big chance to resist because of the terrain and the available weapons and military resources. And the YPG-affiliated resistance is not going to have a chance because it doesn't have a base or big support in the Arab-majority areas,” al-Ghazi said.

The populations in Manbij and Tel Rifaat are unhappy amid rising prices and what they consider unrepresentative rule. But that does not mean they would welcome new conflict.

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Militarily, the involvement of the coalition fighting on the Assad regime's behalf also complicates matters. Militias like Lebanese Hezbollah have long fought Turkish-backed rebels in northern Syria.

If they were to support the YPG against a Turkish and rebel advance, these groups may not turn back the advance, but they could complicate it.

“But TSK and SNA [Syrian National Army - a Turkish-backed Syrian rebel army] will be on the frontlines with Hezbollah-backed militias in Nubul and Zahraa towns and it may cause a few incidents like in Erbil where Turkish base has been shelled by IRGC-affiliated militias,” said al-Ghazi.

But the situation remains uncertain.

“With Erdogan all things are possible, and he has previously undertaken incursions into Syria after saying he would - despite a broad analytical consensus that this was hot air. So perhaps we are at such a moment again,” said Orton.

“The factors that make one doubt the Turks are about to launch another Syrian operation are: most fundamentally, the Turks have no actual interest in acquiring more Syrian territory - had they wanted Tel Rifaat, for example, they could have taken it at any time over the last half-decade - and with the Syrian issue flaring up in Turkish politics, especially over the refugees, drawing more attention to it is a risky business.”


"Erdogan's bet if he does this is on a swift demonstration of force, for an internal boost as the elections approach and to burnish himself internationally - with the Americans, with NATO [...] and even, more quietly and indirectly, with the Russians"

Any gains could be felt only in domestic politics, and also short-lived. Turkey is mired in other geopolitical controversies, including the request from Sweden and Finland to join NATO due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Turkey has indicated it will oppose those states' membership because of Swedish bans on exporting weapons to Turkey, and Swedish support for the YPG.

“Erdogan's bet if he does this is on a swift demonstration of force, for an internal boost as the elections approach and to burnish himself internationally - with the Americans, with NATO during this showdown with the Swedes and Finns, and even, more quietly and indirectly, with the Russians,” Orton said.

“But in war things can easily go wrong, and if it bogs down or there is some terrible incident leading to a significant loss of life for Turkish soldiers, then it will backfire spectacularly. And, again, given that the benefits of this are minimal, these are high risks.”

James Snell is a writer whose work has appeared in numerous international publications including The Telegraph, Prospect, National Review, NOW News, Middle East Eye and History Today.
Follow him on Twitter: @James_P_Snell

Facebook Inaction: Whistleblower Documents Name BJP MP Vinod Sonkar in 'Fake Account' Controversy

The second pro-BJP network, on which Facebook allegedly took no action, had 54 inauthentic accounts and is one which whistleblower Sophie Zhang believes was associated with the personal account of Sonkar.

Devesh Kumar
TECH

THE WIRE

06/JUN/2022

New Delhi: Internal company documents provided by Facebook whistleblower Sophie Zhang to India’s parliamentary committee on information technology have specifically named BJP MP Vinod Kumar Sonkar as having benefited from a network of fake and inauthentic accounts that were not taken down by the social media giant despite being red-flagged.

Zhang has been waiting for nearly six months for Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla to grant permission for her to depose before the parliamentary panel.

In 2019, the former Facebook (now Meta) data scientist found four networks of inauthentic accounts, two helping the Congress and two others benefiting the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. The two pro-Congress networks had 51 accounts and 526 accounts. The network with 526 accounts had around 100 active accounts per day and was helping amplify the party’s agenda in Punjab elections.

The first pro-BJP network had 65 accounts, and it, along with the two pro-Congress networks, was taken down by the Facebook team a few weeks later on December 19, 2019.

The second pro-BJP network which Zhang identified had 54 inauthentic accounts and is one in which she believes was associated with the personal account of Vinod Kumar Sonkar, a BJP MP from Kaushambi (UP) and current chairperson of the parliamentary committee on Ethics.

This one, Zhang alleges, was never taken down by Facebook and was allowed to operate even after five repeated requests from her.

An inauthentic account (often referred to as a fake account) is an account run by someone who isn’t whom the account purports to represent. These accounts can either belong to a person that doesn’t exist or are being managed and manipulated by a network of volunteers often called an IT Cell. Locating a network of inauthentic accounts is a technical task that requires specialised internal tools.

However, many accounts in such a network show some basic signs like sharing a device or an IP address to perform similar actions, unusual activity patterns during the standard working hours and unavailability of any real information like profile picture, birthday, location etc.

Inability to act countered by contradictory claims from Facebook

In the months following the discovery of a network of inauthentic accounts associated with BJP MP Sonkar, documents show that Zhang raised the issue several times with her colleagues at Facebook, including two other Threat investigators and Facebook India public policy manager.

After documenting (conversation screenshots attached below) her findings on Facebook’s internal collaboration tool – Workplace, she triple-verified her findings given the individual’s stature and suggested ways to act.

On January 28, 2020, she recommended the Facebook India Public Policy Manager to “take some actor-level action against MP Sonkar given the clear evidence between his own account and inauthentic activity benefiting himself – e.g. a warning, a temporary feed limiting as a punitive discouraging measure”.

Appendix 1 – Conversation W… by The Wire

After thanking Zhang for flagging this network, the Facebook team didn’t act on Sonkar’s network of inauthentic accounts. On the contrary, Facebook was quick to take action against the two Congress networks, one of which was removed within eight hours.

Zhang, however, didn’t give up, repeatedly demanding action against the BJP MP’s network. In one of the messages she wrote to Facebook India Public Policy Manager, she says, “To avoid bias through selective responses, I strongly recommend also acting at the same time against the separate inauthentic amplification network identified in Kaushambi.”

Appendix 3 – Conversation W… by The Wire

Nine months later, on August 7, 2020, she reminded her Facebook team of the task by commenting, “The remaining followup here in the task regarded an apparent inauthentic cluster of inauthentic accounts focused on MP Vinod Sonkar (BJP-Kaushambi), which were run out of a network associated with the account of MP Vinod Sonkar and family members. Given the close ties to a sitting member of the Lok Sabha, we sought policy approval for a takedown, which we did not receive; and the situation was not deemed to be a focus of prioritisation.”

Appendix 4 – Post-election … by The Wire

A month later, Zhang was fired from Facebook on the grounds of poor performance after allegedly being asked by her manager to stop conducting her civic work, including in India, on the rationale that it is not valuable to Facebook.

India Fake Account (2019-20… by The Wire

Facebook response

During this process, Facebook tried to save its face to providing contradictory statements to different media organisations.

In an initial claim, Facebook said to The Guardian that Vinod Sonkar IT cell was taken down without delays. They partially retracted this claim upon being confronted with Zhang’s documents attached above.

The Wire contacted the public policy team of Facebook on their final stand on the matter, however, they are yet to respond to our email. We will update this story when we receive the response.

The delaying tactic to suffocate democracy

On November 5, 2021, Sophie Zhang submitted these documents to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Communication and Information & Technology.

While members of the panel voted for Zhang to come and depose, parliamentary rules require that foreign nationals first get permission from the Lok Sabha speaker before doing so. However, after more than six months, Zhang is still waiting for a response from Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla who has refused to respond to the request.

These new revelations add to earlier allegations that Facebook’s content moderation policies in India have been influenced in part by its fear of angering the ruling BJP party. In August 2020, The Wall Street Journal reported how the platform hesitated in applying the company’s hate speech rules to BJP MLA T. Raja Singh from Hyderabad.

Earlier in January this year, Sophie wrote an Op-Ed for The Wire, strongly suggesting that democracy cannot function if a swarm of fictitious voices drowns out the voices of the people. Unfortunately, the inaction by Facebook, followed by the delay at Lok Sabha to testify her findings, creates a situation where millions of online Indian citizens are blinded by propaganda fueled by hate machinery run by IT Cells of various political parties.

Devesh Kumar is an independent data analyst and Senior Data Visualizer with The Wire.

BREXIT BITES HIM IN THE ASS

As if things could not get any worse for Boris Johnson: Govt faces humiliating defeat in Lords over immigration


BY:MICHIEL WILLEMS

CITY AM


Woes for Boris Johnson deepened last night as the Government suffered a heavy defeat by peers critical of a move to scrap the option of physical proof of immigration status in favour of a digital-only approach.

Members of the House of Lords voted by 159 to 96, majority 63, in a so-called Motion of Regret over new regulations surrounding proof of right to live and work in the UK.

While those with EU settled status are already using a digital-only system, the Government plans to extend this to almost all migrants and phase out physical documents by the end of 2024.

This is despite a 2020 nationwide survey on the experience of the EU Settlement Scheme by Northumbria University, which found that almost 96% were unhappy with not having a physical document.

Independent crossbench peer the Earl of Clancarty, who moved the regret motion, told the upper chamber: “I am not against a digital system; we live in a digital world.

“But a digital-only for immigration status ignores real life, it ignores real experience, it ignores real people.”

The vote came as peers discussed concerns over glitches and system errors that have reportedly caused inconvenience and distress for those requiring digital proof.

Concerns were also raised over accessibility of a digital-only approach for the most vulnerable including older people, those with disabilities and those without access to a smartphone, computer or internet.

Lord Clancarty argued that the Government pressed ahead with the legislation, despite its own 2018 pilot scheme expressly advising against it.

He added that the move also “removes dignity and independence” for survivors of human trafficking and modern slavery.

The lord concluded: “By removing the physical document, you are not just taking away something without which there are significant practical problems anyway, that in itself is insensitive.

“You are depriving citizens of that piece of card or paper that they can hold up and show to anyone ‒ the same sense that our own passport gives ‒ that allows me, a Ukrainian citizen for instance, the right to be resident in this country, the right to work here, the right to find a place to live here.

“And that piece of card or paper I am holding in my hand is a fundamental thing, it is a part of who I am at this moment in time.

“My lords, that is hugely important in itself. To deny that is surely a cruelty and for that reason alone the Government should revoke this legislation.”lancarty

Home Office minister Baroness Williams of Trafford defended the Government’s position, claiming that the digital method is “more secure” as it cannot be lost, stolen or tempered with.

She added that it was the “converse of the Windrush issue” because it is “ensuring that everyone who had a status can prove that status”, and that it will always be up to date.

Baroness Williams told peers: “I am very much a minister of the 21st century and that is the way the Government is going: digital by default.”

The minister quoted user satisfaction of the digital portal at 80%, with 84% satisfaction for landlords and tenants, arguing: “Those figures don’t give me the impression of a system difficult to use.”

However, Lord Clancarty flipped those figures on their heads.

He said: “Now 80% for right to work, 84% for right to work sounds wonderful, but 80% means that 20% of people are struggling with the system.

“And if you think about the millions who will be using the system you are talking about huge numbers of people, so looked at it that way, that is not good at all.”
Ignoring warnings

Liberal Democrat peer Lord Oates accused the Government of being “determined to ignore all the warnings it has been given and all the actual cases of hardship that have been reported to it”.

He quotes multiple errors people have received when trying to access the digital system including “you’re already logged in”, “your details don’t match our records”, “service currently unavailable” and “we can’t find your status”.

This has led to problems with employment, travel, and accessing loans, among other issues.

He highlighted the case of one person who was denied boarding by an airline in Spain when trying to return to the UK, because they had a Romanian passport and were asked for additional photo ID to prove their immigration status.

He also described the case of someone who applied for a job as a carer, but due to an error on the Home Office’s side, were unable to prove their immigration status for weeks.

Lord Oates asked: “Does the Government have any understanding of how distressing these sorts of incidents are to those concerned?

“Will ministers at least try and walk at least a little distance in the shoes of others and try to understand the impact that this policy is having?”

Telling the House that it makes his “blood boil”, he asserted: “It is time, well past time, that our country’s Government stopped acting with such callous disregard for those who have chosen to make their home among us.

“It is time for them to act and reverse this policy.”

Baroness Williams told peers that a full equality impact assessment completed back in October last year will be made available on gov.uk website

India opposes environmental index ranking

Jacob Koshy
NEW DELHI:

JUNE 09, 2022 

2022 EPI Framework

The framework organizes 40 indicators into 11 issue categories and three policy objectives, with weights shown at each level as a percentage of the total score.

The the Environmental Performance Index is prepared by researchers at the Yale and Columbia universities in the United States.

India has objected to a report, called the Environmental Performance Index (EPI), 2022, that places India last in a list of 180 countries on managing climate change, environmental health, and ecosystem vitality. The report is prepared by researchers at the Yale and Columbia universities in the United States.

“These indicators provide a gauge at a national scale of how close countries are to the established environmental policy targets. The EPI offers a scorecard that highlights leaders and laggards in environmental performance and provides practical guidance for countries that aspire to move towards a sustainable future,” says the report that places Denmark, United Kingdom and Finland at the top of the list. “High-scoring countries exhibit longstanding and continuing investments in policies that protect environmental health, preserve biodiversity and habitat, conserve natural resources, and decouple greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth.”

India ranked at the bottom of all countries in the 2022 EPI, with low scores across a range of critical issues with “deteriorating air quality and rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions” posing major challenges, according to the report.

In a detailed rebuttal, the Union Environment Ministry said that it “does not accept the EPI analysis” and pointed out several parameters, which according to it, were incorrectly weighed by the EPI authors.


Thus “Projected Emission levels in 2050,” which carries a weight of 36% in the ‘Climate Change’ sub-category, calculates trends in emissions from 2010-2019 and extrapolates it to 2050.

India being a developing country and the second largest population will have the increasing trend of GHG (greenhouse gas emissions) and so the correct method, the Environment Ministry said, would be to calculate GHG emissions per capita and have a model with the coefficients taking into account the effect of policies to reduce emissions like increase in use of renewable energy, electric vehicles, creation of carbon sink, etc., to project the values for future years.


The use of “biased metrics and biased weights” caused India’s low rank as it didn’t account for the fact that India had one of the lowest emission trajectories. The index also didn’t account for the fact that developed nations past emissions are responsible for the climate crisis.

Per capita GHG emissions contributed only a “miniscule” 2.6% weight overall in the index. India was a party to Paris Agreement and has given a goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2070 and hence comparing it to countries with Projected 2050 emissions level in 2050 equal to or below zero receiving the maximum score is against the principle of Equity as enshrined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreements.

UN climate chief says 'much more is needed' to combat global warming

Since signing the 2015 Paris climate accord, most countries have stepped up their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas

Nations must not lose hope and focus in tackling global warming despite the many obstacles to international co-operation, the UN climate chief said on Monday at the start of a 10-day meeting in Bonn, Germany.

Patricia Espinosa, whose second term as head of the UN climate office ends this year, spoke in front of diplomats from around the world who will try, during the international gathering, to lay the foundations for this year’s international climate summit in Egypt.

“I appeal to all of you, especially in these difficult and challenging times, not to lose hope, not to lose focus, but to use our united efforts against climate change as the ultimate act of unity between nations,” she said.

Since signing the 2015 Paris climate accord, most countries have stepped up their efforts to reduce greenhouse gases responsible for human-made global warming.

But, collectively, those pledges still fall far short of what is needed to limit global warming to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

While Ms Espinosa said that “much more” is needed, she noted that the commitments so far were made during a time of international turmoil — from former US president Donald Trump's decision to pull his country out of the Paris accord, later reversed by the Biden administration, to the first years of the coronavirus pandemic.

“We must never give in to despair,” she said, joining a chorus of scientists and policymakers who reject climate doomism. “We must continue to move forward. Look at what we have accomplished in the last six years.”

Many of the key issues delegates will try to resolve in the coming days centre on financial aid to poor countries struggling to cope with the impact of climate change.

Ms Espinosa made it clear that she expected leaders to provide their delegates with the necessary backing to agree upon what she described as a “balanced package” soon.

“We must understand that climate change is moving exponentially. We can no longer afford to make just incremental progress,” she said. “We must move these negotiations along more quickly. The world expects it.”

Representatives of the group of 46 Least Developed Countries demanded that big polluters such as China and the US cut their emissions more strongly and pay for the damage that is already resulting from climate change.

“Countries with much greater responsibility and capabilities than ours must close the funding gap so that when the impacts of climate change hit — when houses and hospitals are washed away, when crops are destroyed, when islands sink and when whole communities are displaced — the costs don’t land on the already vulnerable households,” said the group’s chairperson, Madeleine Diouf Sarr from Senegal.

SAWA LAKE IRAQ

Sawa Lake is now dry due to years of drought.

 

AFP

NOBODY WANTS A GREEN BOURSE
MEPs vote down key part of climate plan in 'bad day for European Parliament'


Wed, 8 June 2022


The European Parliament voted Wednesday to reject a reform of the EU carbon trading system, in a surprise setback to the bloc's Green Deal climate plan.

The EU has vowed to cut greenhouse emissions by 55 percent by 2030, but Green and socialist MEPs judged the plan to expand carbon trading insufficiently ambitious.

The plan to expand the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) to include carbon from transport and construction is a keystone of Brussels' entire climate package.

It also legislated the abolition of exceptions to the carbon trading scheme for European industry in exchange for a carbon tax on imports at the EU's borders.

The text will now go back to the parliament's environmental committee to be re-negotiated, in a severe blow to the European Commission's key legislative projectl, "A European Green Deal," first proposed in December 2019.

There were fierce recriminations following the vote, with conservative and liberal members accusing the socialists of allying with extremists to defeat the measure by 340 votes to 265.

The left in turn accused the right of watering down the plan in committee, forcing those seeking a more ambitious goal to make a stand.

"You can't seek support from the far-right to lower the level of ambition and then complain that we voted with them. You need to be coherent," declared socialist group leader Iratxe Garcia.

But Peter Liese, the centre-right MEP charged with steering the ETS reform, warned that MEPs had ceded the legislative initiative to EU member state capitals.

"It is a bad day for the European Parliament," he said.

In mid-May, the parliament's environment committee approved expanding the ETS after lengthy negotiations between the political blocs.

At the time the plan came to a vote, it stipulated that companies would have to pay for the CO2 emissions of their buildings and vehicles by 2030.

It also provided for a 63 percent reduction in emissions from sectors subject to the European carbon market by 2030 compared to 2005.

This was better than the target proposed by the European Commission, but a clear step backwards compared to the 67 percent voted in the environment committee.

(With agencies)

Microplastics found in freshly fallen Antarctic snow for first time


New Zealand researchers identified tiny plastics, which can be toxic to plants and animals, in 19 snow samples

Research published in The Cryosphere journal identified microplastics in freshly fallen snow in Antarctica for the first time. Photograph: Alex Aves


Eva Corlett in Wellington

THE GUARDIAN

Wed 8 Jun 2022


Microplastics have been found in freshly fallen snow in Antarctica for the first time, which could accelerate snow and ice melting and pose a threat to the health of the continent’s unique ecosystems.

The tiny plastics – smaller than a grain of rice - have previously been found in Antarctic sea ice and surface water but this is the first time it has been reported in fresh snowfall, the researchers say.

The research, conducted by University of Canterbury PhD student, Alex Aves, and supervised by Dr Laura Revell has been published in the scientific journal The Cryosphere.


Microplastics found deep in lungs of living people for first time

Aves collected snow samples from the Ross Ice Shelf in late 2019 to determine whether microplastics had been transferred from the atmosphere into the snow. Up until then, there had been few studies on this in Antarctica.
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“We were optimistic that she wouldn’t find any microplastics in such a pristine and remote location,” Revell said. She instructed Aves to also collect samples from Scott Base and the McMurdo Station roadways – where microplastics had previously been detected - so “she’d have at least some microplastics to study,” Revell said.

But that was an unnecessary precaution – plastic particles were found in every one of the 19 samples from the Ross Ice Shelf.

“It’s incredibly sad but finding microplastics in fresh Antarctic snow highlights the extent of plastic pollution into even the most remote regions of the world,” Aves said.

Plastic pollution has been found from the summit of Mount Everest to the depths of the oceans. People are known to inadvertently eat and breathe microplastics and another recent study found that the particles cause damage to human cells. A study last year found that airborne microplastics are “spiraling around the globe”.

Aves found an average of 29 microplastic particles per litre of melted snow, which is higher than marine concentrations reported previously from the surrounding Ross Sea and in Antarctic sea ice.

Samples taken from immediately next to the scientific bases on Ross Island, Scott Base and McMurdo Station threw up larger concentrations – nearly three times that of remote areas.

University of Canterbury researchers work in Antarctica in 2019.

 Photograph: Lucy Howell


There were 13 different types of plastic found, with the most common being PET – the plastic commonly used to make soft drink bottles and clothing.

Atmospheric modelling suggested they may have travelled thousands of kilometres through the air, however it is equally likely the presence of humans in Antarctica has established a microplastic ‘footprint’, Revell said.

“There was a photo we found of some marker flags that are put out for use for wayfinding around the base…those colors matched the most commonly colored microplastics that we found in the environment.”

Revell’s prior research has shown that microplastics in the atmosphere can trap radiation emitted by the Earth and contribute to climate change. Dark microplastics in icy surfaces could absorb sunlight and lead to localised warming, she said. The plastics can also be toxic for animals and plant life.

“We’re still learning a lot about the impacts, but from what we know so far, it’s not very good.”

Carnivorous dinosaur similar to T-Rex discovered in Egypt's Western Desert

Six-metre theropod believed to have lived more than 98 million years ago

A reconstruction of the newly discovered yet unnamed abelisaurid. 

Photo: Andrew McAfee, Carnegie Museum of Natural History

Nada El Sawy
Cairo
Jun 08, 2022

An Egyptian research team has discovered the fossil of a large, carnivorous dinosaur believed to have lived more than 98 million years ago in the Bahariya Oasis of Egypt’s Western Desert.

The team was led by Hesham Sallam, professor of vertebrate palaeontology at The American University in Cairo and founder of the Mansoura University Vertebrate Paleontology Centre (MUVP).

A research paper describing the discovery was published in the scientific journal Royal Society Open Science on Wednesday.

The well-preserved vertebra, or backbone, from the base of the neck of a theropod was recovered on a 2016 MUVP expedition. Theropods, the same subgroup to which the Tyrannosaurus rex belongs, are characterised by hollow bones and three-toed limbs.
Trailblazing Egyptian team

“We are the only vertebrate palaeontologists working in Egypt documenting prehistoric life,” Prof Sallam told The National.

“I’m really enjoying my dream of seeing my students leading a scientific paper on a discipline that didn’t exist in Egypt before my time.”

Several exciting prehistoric findings have been made by Egyptian teams in recent years. Last August, a team of palaeontologists from Mansoura University announced the discovery of a species of semi-aquatic whale that lived 43 million years ago. And in February, a collaborative study from Cairo and New Valley universities found dinosaur footprints dating back 70 million years.
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Prof Sallam decided to take the lead in bringing the science of vertebrate palaeontology to Egypt shortly after receiving his master’s degree from Mansoura in 2002.

“I was lucky to get a scholarship from the Egyptian government to study rare disciplines that are needed,” he said. He went on to study at the University of Oxford in 2006 and returned with a doctorate in 2010.

The Bahariya Oasis is known for its rich fossils and the discovery of several famous dinosaurs during the early 20th century, such as Spinosaurus, the largest known carnivorous dinosaur. Two other giant theropods, the Carcharodontosaurus and Bahariasaurus, were also found in the oasis.

But the Bahariya dinosaur fossils were shipped to Munich’s palaeontological museum, where they were destroyed during an allied bombing of the city in 1944.

Hesham Sallam said his research team comprises 'the only vertebrate palaeontologists working in Egypt documenting prehistoric life'. Photo supplied

The large predatory dinosaurs that roamed what is now the Egyptian Sahara during the middle of the Cretaceous period, which began 145 million years ago and ended 66 million years ago, are among the abelisaurid family. They existed in Europe and the Southern Hemisphere during the later stages of the Mesozoic Era, or Age of Dinosaurs.

The latest unnamed abelisaurid is estimated to have been six metres in body length with a bulldog-shaped face and short limbs.

Collaborators on the study, which was led by Ohio University graduate student Belal Salem of MUVP, included a team of Egyptian and international researchers from Ohio University, the Carnegie Museum of Natural History, the University of Michigan, Benha University and the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency.

“Identifying definitive abelisaurid from Bahariya is very exciting for Egypt and MUVP, as this group of predatory dinosaurs continues to tell us a lot about vertebrate communities during the Cretaceous Period,” said Ohio University professor of biomedical sciences Patrick O’Connor.

NASA's Mars Perseverance rover has a pet ROCK! 

Stone that found its way into the vehicle's wheel in February has been hitching a ride ever since

The Martian rock attached itself to Perseverance's wheel in February, NASA said

It has since been transported more than 5.3 miles across Mars aboard the rover

NASA's car-sized rover touched down on Mars' Jezero crater in February last year

By JONATHAN CHADWICK FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED:  8 June 2022

A small rock has been hitching a ride on NASA's Perseverance rover on the surface of Mars for four months without falling off.

The rock attached itself on the Perseverance's wheel in February and has since been transported more than 5.3 miles (8.5 km) aboard the rover, NASA has said.

Photos show the Martian fragment tucked into the front left wheel of the Perseverance rover, which landed on the surface of Mars in February last year.

The photos of the rock were taken by the rover's front cameras used to navigate hazards, called 'Hazcams'.

NASA said the 'unexpected traveling companion' isn't doing any damage to the wheel, although it could drop off at any time.

Perseverance can only go up to 0.07 miles per hour (0.12 km per hour), which may just be slow enough to stop it from falling off.

Prior to being caught on Perseverance's wheels, the rock could have been in the same spot for millions of years.



The Mars rock can be seen on the front left wheel of Perseverance on May 26, 2022 (sol 449) beside track marks in the Martian surface

Image taken using the front left Haz Avoidance Camera (Hazcam), acquired on April 19, 2022 (sol 413)

PERSEVERANCE ROVER COMES WITH 23 CAMERAS


There are 23 cameras mounted to the Perseverance rover including:

Nine engineering cameras, seven science cameras and seven for entry, descent and landing.

The engineering cameras give detailed information in colour about the terrain the rover has to cross.

They measure the ground for safe driving, check out the status of hardware and support sample gathering.

There are Hazcams for hazard detection and Navcams for navigation.

Science cameras record in more detail and can even capture 3D images.

The Mastcam-Z on a 2 metre arm has a zoom feature for focusing on distant objects and can film video.

The Supercam fires a laser at mineral targets beyond the reach of the rovers arm to analysed the chemical composition of the rock.

Perseverance touched down on Mars' Jezero Crater on February 18, 2021 after a nearly seven-month journey through space.

The car-sized Mars rover is tasked with seeking traces of fossilised microbial life from Mars' ancient past and to gather rock specimens for return to Earth.

Last month, it reached a key phase of its mission – climbing up an ancient delta known as 'Three Forks'.

NASA said the 'pet rock' attached itself to the wheel on the 341th 'sol' or Martian day – over 100 sols ago, in early February 2022.

One sol lasts 24 hours, 39 minutes and 35 seconds – slightly longer than an Earth day. As of Wednesday (June 8), Perseverance has been on Mars for 462 sols.

On sol 341, Perseverance was still working on its first science campaign focused on picking up samples from the Jezero crater floor.

'We examined rocks that are part of the Máaz formation, which we believe is made up of lava flows,' NASA said in a statement.

Martian rocks are so variable on the red planet's surface that if this pet rock were to fall off the wheel so far from its original location, it could stick out if a 'Martian geologist from the future' were to encounter it.

'It's possible that the rock may fall out at some point along our future ascent of the crater rim,' NASA said.

'If it does so, it will land amongst rocks that we expect to be very different from itself.'

The public can track the route taken throughout Perseverance's 462-sol journey using an online interactive map on NASA's website, which uses dots to denote where the rover stopped.

'Engineers created this experience with software used by the mission team who decide where Perseverance will explore, and how to get there,' NASA said.

'Each dot represents the end point of a drive and is labelled with the day, or sol, on Mars, that the rover stopped.'



The same rock is seen in an image acquired on February 6, 2022 (sol 343). Photos were taken by the rover's front cameras used to navigate hazards, called 'Hazcams'

This is not the first time a rock has hitched a ride on a Mars rover mission; 18 years ago, a 'potato-sized' rock found its way into the Spirit rover’s rear right wheel, and had to be dislodged.

Five years ago, the front right wheel of the the Curiosity rover also periodically picked up its own rocky traveling companion.

'While it's unclear exactly how long these rocks stuck around, they tended to hop off after a few weeks,' NASA said.

'Perseverance's current companion is therefore on its way to setting Mars hitch-hiking records.'

It's Perseverance's job to collect rocks, but the hitchhiking rock was not meant to be one of them. Perseverance captured its first rock sample last September.

The rover has turret-mounted scientific instruments that are able to determine chemical and mineral composition and look for organic matter, as well as better characterise the planet's geological processes.

It uses a drill and a hollow coring bit at the end of its 7-foot-long (2-meter-long) robotic arm to extract samples slightly thicker than a pencil, which it stores under its belly.

However, Perseverance is not bringing the samples back to Earth – the rover is stashing in certain locations on Mars them to be collected by a future retrieval mission, which is currently being developed.


It was in February last year that Perseverance touched down on Mars' Jezero crater, which scientists believe was once home to an ancient river delta

Mars NASA Privacy Policy

One option involves NASA and ESA launching two more spacecraft that would leave Earth in 2026 and reach Mars in 2028.

The first will deploy a small rover, which will make its way to Perseverance, pick up the filled sampling tubes and transfer them to a 'Mars ascent vehicle' – a small rocket.

This rocket will blast off – in the process becoming the first object launched from the surface of Mars – and place the container into Martian orbit, meaning it will essentially be floating in space.

At this point, the third and final spacecraft involved in the tricky operation will manoeuvre itself next to the sample container, pick it up and fly it back to Earth.

A multi-billion dollar project to bring back a piece of Mars to Earth will involve three separate launches and would only be successful as soon as 2031

Providing its re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere is successful, it will plummet to the ground at a military training ground in Utah in 2031, meaning the Martian samples likely won't be studied for about another decade.

Perseverance also made the journey to Mars equipped with a detachable 4-pound (1.8-kilogram) robotic helicopter called Ingenuity.

The copter has performed a series of nearly 30 flights of increasing complexity on the red planet, the most recent in April this year.

Ingenuity, which is just 18-inches tall, made its first flight on April 19, 2021, making history as the first powered controlled flight on another planet.

 

INGENUITY FLIGHTS SO FAR

Flight one: April 19, 2021 with a vertical takeoff up to 9.8ft, stationary hover and a landing 

Flight two: April 22, 2021 with a vertical takeoff up to 16ft, hover, then shift westward for 14ft before returning and landing 

Flight three: April 25, 2021 with a vertical takeoff up to 16ft, hover, shift northwards for 328ft at an airspeed of 2 m/s before returning to land

Flight four: April 30, 2021 with a vertical takeoff up to 16ft, hover, shift southwards 873ft at 3.5m/s before returning to land 

Flight five: May 7, 2021 with a vertical takeoff up to 33ft, hover, shift southwards 423ft at 3.5 m/s before landing at that new location

Flight six: May 22, 2021 with a vertical takeoff of 33ft, hover, shift southwest 492ft at 9mph, travel 49ft south, travel 164ft before returning to land 

Flight seven: June 8, 2021 with a vertical takeoff of 33ft, hover, shift 348ft at 9mph, land at Airfield D

Flight eight: June 21, 2021 with a vertical takeoff, hover, shift southwest 520ft, land at Airfield E 438ft away from Perseverance

Flight nine: July 5, 2021 with a record length of 2,050ft southwest over a prospective research location at 16ft per second.

Flight ten: July 24, 2021 with a record height of 40 feet (12 metres) over Raised Ridges to Airfield G. Flight duration 165.4 seconds.   

Flight eleven: August 5, 2021 by flying 1,250ft for 130 seconds in preparation for a series of reconnaissance missions for the Perseverance rover.

Flight twelve: August 16, 2021 by flying 1,476ft for 169 seconds, climbing 32.8ft in the air, over the 'South Seitah' region of Mars. 

Flight thirteen: September 5, 2021 by flying 690ft for 160.5 seconds, climbing 26ft over one particular ridgeline over the 'South Seitah' region of Mars. 

Flight fourteen: October 25, 2021 by flying a 'short hop' of 6.5ft (2m) to test out higher rpm settings. It flew for 23 seconds at 1mph at an altitude of 16ft (5m).

Flight fifteen: November 6, 2021 by flying back towards its original landing site. It flew for a total of 128 seconds at an estimated 11mph.

Flight sixteen: November 20, 2021 by travelling 381ft (116m) for a total of 108 seconds at an estimated 3mph.

Flight seventeen: December 5, 2021 by flying back toward the Wright Brothers Field at the Octavia E. Butler landing site. It flew 614ft (187m) for a total of 117 seconds at an estimated 6mph. 

Flight eighteen: December 15, 2021 by travelling 755ft (230m) for a total of 124.3 seconds at an estimated 5mph.

Flight nineteen: February 7, 2022 by travelling 207ft (63m) for a total of 99.8 seconds at an estimated 2mph.

Flight twenty: February 25, 2022 by travelling 1,283ft (391m) for a total of 130.3 seconds at an estimated 10mph.

Flight twenty one: March 11, 2022 by travelling 1,214ft (370m) for a total of 129.2 seconds at an estimated 8mph.

Flight twenty two:  March 19, 2022 by travelling 223ft (68m) for a total of 101.4 seconds at an estimated 2.2mph.

Flight twenty three: March 23, 2022 by travelling 1,175ft (358m) for a total of 129.1 seconds at an estimated 8.9mph.

Flight twenty four: April 3, 2022 by travelling 154ft (47m) for a total of 69.5 seconds at an estimated 3.2mph.

Flight twenty five: April 8, 2022 by travelling 2,310ft (704m) for a total of 161.3 seconds at an estimated 12.3mph.

Flight twenty six: April 19, 2022 by travelling 1,181ft (360m) for a total of 159 seconds at an estimated 8.5mph.

Flight twenty seven: April 23, 2022 by travelling 1,007ft (307m) for a total of 152.9 seconds at an estimated 6.7mph. 

Flight twenty eight: April 29, 2022 by travelling 1,371ft (418m) for a total of 152.4 seconds at an estimated 8.1mph.

James Webb Space Telescope was hit by a tiny space rock – but it’s OK

Leah Crane - New Scientist


The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has been struck by a small space rock. A micrometeoroid hit one of the telescope’s main mirrors between 23 and 25 May, but the NASA team that operates it doesn’t expect the impact to significantly affect the observatory’s data.

JWST launched at the end of 2021 and reached its permanent orbit in January. Since then, the engineering team has been preparing the telescope’s instruments for science observations. The most delicate and finicky part of the observatory is its primary mirror, which is made up of 18 smaller, hexagonal mirrors coated in gold.

The solar system is full of micrometeoroids, most about the size of a grain of dust, so one hitting JWST is not unexpected. The mirrors were designed to withstand small impacts, and were tested before the spacecraft launched.

However, the one that hit the telescope in May was larger than anything the NASA team tested or simulated on the ground, and because it was not part of a meteor shower, nobody predicted it. Had they done so, the telescope’s operators would have been able to turn it to avoid a direct impact.

“Since launch, we have had four smaller measurable micrometeoroid strikes that were consistent with expectations, and this one more recently that is larger than our degradation predictions assumed,” said JWST team member Lee Feinberg at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in an official blog post published on 8 June. “We will use this flight data to update our analysis of performance over time and also develop operational approaches to assure we maximise the imaging performance of Webb to the best extent possible for many years to come.”

While the effect of this impact on the data is significant enough to be detectable, the observatory team found that the telescope's future images won’t be degraded too badly. For now, JWST is still performing well above the level that is required for its planned science observations, including those of the early universe and the very first galaxies.

 YouGov ‘BANNED 2017 Election poll as it was “too positive” for Corbyn’s Labour after THREAT by Tory MP co-founder’

By Tom D. Rogers
8th June 2022

ALL TWEETS AT THE END

YouGov intentionally surpressed a poll showing Jeremy Corbyn’s incredible 2017 General Election popularity surge after pressure from their co-founder – a current Tory Minister – because it was “too positive for Labour“, a former senior employee at the pollster has sensationally claimed.

Writing on Twitter, Chris Curtis – who was YouGov’s Political Research Manager during the 2017 General Election campaign – said that Tory Minister Nadhim Zahawi, who co-founded YouGov in 2000, personally phoned the CEO of YouGov threatening them with the sack for publishing data showing Jeremy Corbyn’s hugely increasing popularity.

In a viral Twitter thread, Curtis said that YouGov bosses “banned” him from releasing the poll conducted following the 2017 Leader’s Debate, which showed Corbyn had won “by a country mile“, following the intervention by the Tory Minister and co-founder.

Writing on Twitter, Curtis began his recollection of events by outlining how the public mood was clearly shifting in favour of Corbyn’s Labour throughout the 2017 General Election campaign, stating:

“Firstly, it is worth noting just how dramatically the opinion polls changed during the course of the campaign. This isn’t how things are supposed to happen.

“There are loads of reasons for the shift (Tory hubris/volatile electorate/manifestos/Corbyn/The Tories screwing up their attack lines) but it was certainly very difficult for us pollsters to deal with. When something this dramatic happens, you struggle to believe it.”

Curtis then went on to detail how all the data clearly pointed to an undeniable Labour surge, writing:

“The first thing I would do every morning is download the overnight data, and each day the gap just kept getting smaller and smaller. On the morning of the Manchester bombing, we actually had Labour pulling level, although the poll got spiked because the campaign rightly paused.

“We looked at everything to try and work out why this was happening. One theory was that Corbyn supporters had mass joined the panel (despite the checks we have on such things happening) and were playing the system to get the Labour numbers up.

“But we looked at excluding people who had joined the panel more recently, and it made no difference to the final numbers. At one point, and I feel stupid saying this now, I seriously wondered if we had been hacked by nefarious actors.”

The former YouGov employee then detailed how the mood changed with the release of YouGov’s sensational MRP poll – which accurately predicted a hung parliament – but caused anger and hysteria within the Conservative Party at the time:

“And then we released the MRP. This was probably the worst possible idea. The MRP was actually showing exactly the same thing as our standard polls would have, but it was the first time anybody had said “hung parliament”.”

Curtis then stunningly claimed:

“Nadhim Zahawi called up the CEO and said he would call for his resignation if he was wrong. It became pretty clear we would all be out of a job if we were wrong now.”

Zahawi’s intervention clearly spooked YouGov bosses, with Curtis claiming that after his threat their “polling and coverage was a lot worse for the rest of the campaign” – before sensationally claiming that YouGov bosses actually “banned” him from releasing one poll because it was “too positive about Labour“:

“We did a fantastic debate poll in the hours following the debate that Corbyn took part in. The results were stark – Corbyn won by a country mile, and one in four Tory voters thought he was best.

“But despite having written the story and designed the charts, we were banned from releasing the story because it was too positive about Labour.”

In addition, Curtis also claimed that YouGov bosses forced them to change their methodology – which artificially increased the Tories’ supposed popularity – because of “pressure from high-ups“:

Unsurprisingly, many on Twitter responded with fury to the allegations:

Following Curtis’ thread, YouGov have since released a statement claiming that the poll was only surpressed because “the sample of people who watched the debate significantly over-represented Labour voters from the previous election“.

However, YouGov’s statement includes no denial about Zahawi’s intervention, or anything regarding their apparent change in methodology as a result of it – and many on Twitter were having none of it:

In response to the allegations, Nadhim Zahawi – who sits as the current Tory Education Secretary – confirmed his phone call to YouGov, but claimed that his threat to have YouGov staff sacked was actually a “joke“:

What is undeniable, however, is that YouGov’s reputation has been irrevocably damaged.