Bank of Canada has room to stop hiking before U.S. Fed, survey shows

Erik Hertzberg and Sarina Yoo, Bloomberg News

The Bank of Canada has leeway to end its interest-rate hiking cycle in coming months even if the Federal Reserve keeps pushing borrowing costs higher next year, according to economists.

Governor Tiff Macklem and his officials can comfortably leave their benchmark rate as much as 100 basis points lower than that of their southern counterparts, a Bloomberg survey shows. 

More than half of the 16 respondents say the Bank of Canada won’t end up signaling a pause. But Macklem is nonetheless expected to stop hiking after this month’s meeting or in January, leaving borrowing costs at 4.25 per cent. 

In the US, short-term money markets are betting that Chairman Jerome Powell will raise the Fed funds rate to between 4.75 per cent and 5 per cent.

That gap in expectations suggests Macklem has some flexibility as he searches for an endpoint to Canada’s aggressive rate hike cycle, just as momentum in the domestic economy starts fading.

“The only reason that the Bank of Canada would be worried about diverging from the Fed would be the currency reaction,” Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets, said by email. “Given that there is already a material divergence priced into markets, the exchange rate should already have taken that into account.”

Consensus in the Bloomberg survey is split on whether the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its meeting next Wednesday. Jobs data due Friday will be a key input into the decision.

Macklem and his officials have already raised the overnight rate to 3.75 per cent from the emergency pandemic low of 0.25 per cent that held until March. The Bank of Canada surprised markets and most economists at its last meeting by opting for a half-percentage-point hike, down from a 75-basis-point increase in September and a full-percentage-point jolt in July.

The Bloomberg survey took place between Nov. 25 and 30.

Other Highlights

• 94 per cent of respondents say Canada’s economy is more sensitive to interest-rate hikes than the US
• Half of economists say the Bank of Canada’s most recent forecasts for economic growth are too optimistic
• Respondents expect policymakers will start cutting the overnight rate in October 2023
• Nearly 80 per cent say the government of Canada’s spending isn’t undermining the central bank’s effort to return inflation to target

DEBT KEEPS CAPITALISM FUNCTIONING

CANADA

Consumer debt tops $2.36 trillion in third quarter, up 7.3% from last year

The Canadian Press

Equifax Canada says an increase in borrowers helped push total consumer debt to $2.36 trillion in the third quarter for a 7.3 per cent rise from last year, even as mortgage volumes decline. 

It says average non-mortgage debt rose to $21,183 for the highest level since the second quarter of 2020, with early signs of strain starting to show in auto loans and credit cards.

Overall non-mortgage debt came in at $599.9 billion for a 5.3 per cent climb from last year, and up 1.9 per cent from the third quarter of 2019, as the number of borrowers rose by 3.1 per cent.

Rebecca Oakes, Equifax Canada's head of advanced analytics, says the rising debt stems from a combination of growth from immigration, pent-up spending, as well as increased borrowing as consumers feel the strain of higher living costs.

Credit card spending in the quarter was up 17.3 per cent from last year to an all-time high for the time period. 

Average spending put on credit cards was almost $2,447, a 21.8 per cent jump from the third quarter of 2019.

There's been an increase in credit card spending and new cards issued across all consumer segments, including the sub-prime segments, said Oakes in a statement.

She said there are some signs that borrowers are starting to have trouble covering the bills, with average payment rates for those who carry a balance down from a year ago, she said. 

"Consumers have been making strong payments, but we are starting to see a shift in payment behaviour especially for credit card revolvers — those who carry a balance on their card and don't pay it off in full each month."

Delinquencies on auto loans have also started to trend up, especially those opened since late 2021, she said. 

The overall rate of more than 90 day delinquencies for non-mortgage debt was 0.93 per cent, up from 0.87 last year, though insolvencies are still well below pre-pandemic levels.

New mortgage volume dropped 22.7 per cent in the quarter compared with last year and by 14.9 per cent compared with the third quarter of 2019. First-time home buyers are paying over $500 more for almost the same loan amounts as first-time buyers last year. 

Overall insolvency rates are up from a year ago but from a relatively low starting point, and there are some areas of concern including a rise in consumer proposals by seniors, said Oakes.

"The true impact of interest rate hikes could be visible by the end of 2023.” 

 This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 6, 2022.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for DEBT 

Debt: The First 5000 Years : David Graeber : Free

 Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

Publication date 2011

Debt: The First 5,000 Years is a book by anthropologist David Graeber, published in 2011. It explores the historical relationship of debt with social institutions such as barter, marriage, friendship, slavery, law, religion, war and government; in short, much of the fabric of human life in society. It draws on the history and anthropology of a number of civilizations, large and small, from the first known records of debt from Sumer, in 3500 BC until the present.

CANADA

Court upholds all but one rule on airline compensation for passengers

Caitlin Yardley, The Canadian Press

AIR CANADA (AC:CT)

19.46 0.19 (0.99%)

As of: 12/06/22 8:13:11 pm
REAL-TIME QUOTE. Prices update every five seconds for TSX-listed stocks

Chart Type - 1year

See Full Stock Page »

The rules that bolster compensation for air passengers subjected to delayed flights and damaged luggage have been largely upheld in a Federal Court of Appeal ruling.

• Sign up to get breaking news email alerts sent directly to your inbox

The court on Tuesday dismissed the appeal that challenged the validity of the passenger bill of rights, with the exception of one regulation that applies to the temporary loss of baggage. 

Earlier this year, Air Canada and Porter Airlines Inc. along with 16 other appellants that include the International Air Transport Association — IATA has about 290 member airlines — brought the challenge to the passenger bill of rights to a Federal Court of Appeal panel. 

The airlines argued that the country’s passenger rights charter violates global standards and should be rendered invalid for international flights.

This includes the most recent amendment made to the passenger protections that require airline compensation if they cannot provide a new reservation within 48 hours of a flight cancellation or "lengthy delay" for delays and cancellations outside of the airline's control such as major weather events or a pandemic.

The three-year-old federal regulations took on renewed relevance to thousands of Canadians in 2020 as pandemic lockdowns and border closures grounded fleets and prompted mass flight cancellations.

A request from the airlines to suspend the Air Passenger Protection Regulations (APPR), initially launched by the airlines in 2019, was turned down by the Federal Court of appeal in 2020. 

In court filings, the airlines argued that the regulations exceed the Canadian Transportation Agency’s authority. They also went against the Montreal Convention, a multilateral treaty, by imposing heftier compensation requirements for flight cancellations or lost baggage. For example, the rules demand higher damages based on the length of a delay and regardless of “the actual damage sustained by each individual passenger,” according to the appellants.

In a case that pitted IATA and the airlines against the CTA and the attorney general, Ottawa argued that there is no conflict between the passenger protections and the Montreal Convention.

However, the court said that the interpretation of "lost baggage" was inconsistent with the Montreal Convention that entitles passengers to compensation for lost or damaged baggage. 

Air passenger rights advocate Gabor Lukacs said, “the decision upholds Canadian passengers’ right to be treated fairly.”

While Lukacs has criticized the lack of breadth and enforcement of the APPR, he said that the court's decision to uphold passenger protection in Canada "breathes new life into the initiative to revamp the APPR and correct its many shortcomings." 

Canada's air passenger charter came under scrutiny at a November parliamentary hearing where advocates called for improvements to the current compensation system's loopholes and backlogs.

Sylvie De Bellefeuille, legal adviser from Option Consommateurs, told MPs that it is up to customers to seek compensation based on the information provided by the airlines, leading to a lack of transparency such as in the case of flight disruptions this summer.

Currently, a backlog of over 20,000 complaints remains in front of the CTA.

Lukacs said there is a lot of work ahead to get air passenger protections that actually work and advocated for a passenger bill of rights similar to that of the EU. 

A similar challenge was presented by IATA to the EU, who argued that a regime similar to the regulations has been in force since 2004 and the Court of Justice of the European Union ruled it is compatible with the Montreal Convention, despite challenges from the airline industry.

The CTA and appellant lawyer Pierre Bienvenu were not immediately available for comment. 

US, UK Sign LNG Deal in Race to Secure Supplies for Next Year

Ellen Milligan, Anna Shiryaevskaya and Elena Mazneva, Bloomberg News

(Bloomberg) -- Britain and the US agreed to work together to ensure liquefied natural gas keeps flowing next year in an effort to underpin energy supplies threatened by Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

London and Washington agreed to set up a joint action group that will work “with international partners and industry” to ensure at least 9-10 billion cubic meters of American LNG is delivered to the UK over the next year. While that’s double the amount exported in 2021, it matches the record volume US producers delivered to the UK this year.

“We will look to identify opportunities to support commercial contracts that increase security of supply,” UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden said in the joint statement. The US commitment includes providing the necessary regulatory environment to achieve the delivery goals.

Britain’s accord is a result of the increased global competition for LNG, especially from Asia and the European Union, where Moscow’s decision to throttle pipeline gas deliveries is threatening to push the continent’s economy into recession. The US-UK agreement provides little clarity on how the LNG supplies will be secured, and Britain has already imported more than 10 billion cubic meters of US LNG this year. 

The deal follows a similar agreement the US struck with the EU in March for at least 15 billion cubic meters of additional LNG this year. That accord raised questions over where exactly the supply would come from, as soaring EU gas prices would likely pull the super-chilled fuel to European shores anyway.

While the US filled some of Russia’s supply gap by exporting record amounts of LNG from its seven plants, global markets are going to have to wait at least two more years before any new supplies from America come online. Three large-scale projects requiring more than $30 billion of financing are now under construction in Texas and Louisiana, yet none will be ready next year.

Still, the deal has political significance with the UK’s Sunak trying to forge new trade deals and diplomatic relations with partners outside of Europe. The countries will collaborate on renewables and nuclear projects to reduce global dependence on Russian exports and help stabilize energy markets.

The partnership also aims to drive international investment in clean energy technologies and work to decarbonize the aerospace, aviation and automotive industries, according to the statement. The first meeting of the group will be held virtually on Thursday.

--With assistance from Gerson Freitas Jr..

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

ADDING INSULT TO INJURY

US judge dismisses suit against Saudi prince in Khashoggi murder

NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW;WHICH LAW

AFP
December 06, 2022

Jamal Khashoggi, pictured in 2014, about four years before his murder and dismemberment

Washington (AFP) - A US judge dismissed Tuesday a lawsuit against Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for his alleged role in the 2018 murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Washington federal judge John Bates accepted a US government's stance that Prince Mohammed, who was designated prime minister of Saudi Arabia in September, enjoys immunity in US courts as a foreign head of state.

Bates said the civil suit filed by Khashoggi's widow Hatice Cengiz and his activist group DAWN made a "strong" and "meritorious" argument that Prince Mohammed was behind the murder.

But he ruled that he had no power to reject the US government's official stance, submitted in a formal statement to the court on November 17, that the prince had immunity as a foreign leader.

Even if the prince was named prime minister just weeks ago, the US government's executive branch "remains responsible for foreign affairs, including with Saudi Arabia, and a contrary decision on bin Salman’s immunity by this Court would unduly interfere with those responsibilities," Bates said.

He said the "credible" allegations of the murder, the timing of prince's being named prime minister, and timing of the US government's submission, left him with "uneasiness."

But Bates said he had no other choice in the case.
US intelligence blamed prince

Prince Mohammed has been the kingdom's de facto ruler for several years under his father King Salman.

One of the prince's most vocal critics, Khashoggi was a journalist and activist based in the United States when he traveled to Turkey with his fiancee to obtain documents for their marriage from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

After he entered the consulate Khashoggi was seized and murdered by a team of agents of the Saudi regime, his body dismembered and disposed of.

Activists seeking to hold the crown prince accountable for the Khashoggi murder voiced dismay.

"Today is a dark day for victims of transnational repression," said Khalid Aljabri, a US-based doctor and son of a former Saudi intelligence official.

US President Joe Biden "has put dissidents at greater risk while confirming to dictators that his human rights policy is nothing but hot air."

A Saudi court in 2020 jailed eight people for between seven and 20 years over the killing.

Last year, Biden declassified an intelligence report that found Prince Mohammed had approved the operation against Khashoggi, an assertion Saudi authorities deny.

The murder deeply strained ties between Washington and Riyadh.

But driven by the needs of Middle East politics, particularly the threat from Iran, and Saudi Arabia's power over oil markets, Biden traveled to the country in July in a move seen as partially aiming to put the murder case behind.

Nevertheless, while there Biden made mention of it in his talks with the crown prince, calling the murder "outrageous."

U.S. Court Dismisses Suit Against Saudi Ruler in Khashoggi Killing

The court followed the Biden administration’s guidance that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has immunity as a head of government in a case over the death of Jamal Khashoggi.

A U.S. intelligence report released early in the Biden administration said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had approved the killing of Jamal Khashoggi.

Credit...Pool photo by Athit Perawongmetha


By Edward Wong
Dec. 6, 2022, 

WASHINGTON — A U.S. federal court said in a filing on Tuesday that it was dismissing a lawsuit against the crown prince of Saudi Arabia over the murder of a Saudi columnist who lived in Virginia, after the State Department’s determination that the prince has immunity as a head of state or government.

The lawsuit filed on behalf of Hatice Cengiz, the fiancée of the columnist, Jamal Khashoggi, named Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as the most prominent defendant. Mr. Khashoggi was killed by Saudi agents while visiting Saudi Arabia’s consulate in Istanbul in 2018 to get documents for his upcoming wedding.

This September, Prince Mohammed’s father, King Salman, made the prince the prime minister of Saudi Arabia. The move formalized his role as ruler of the kingdom, though the king remains the head of state.

Some U.S. officials and analysts said the king appeared to make the decision to ensure that the prince had immunity in the case. King Salman made the announcement six days before an October deadline set by the court for the U.S. government to advise whether Prince Mohammed had immunity. Soon after he received his new title, the prince told the court he had immunity based on legal precedent.

The State Department asked the court for an extension to make a legal determination, and then it filed a statement with the Justice Department on Nov. 17 that said Prince Mohammed should be “immune while in office.”

The letter said the State Department was not taking a position on the suit itself and repeated “its unequivocal condemnation of the heinous murder” of Mr. Khashoggi. Legal scholars said at the time that the determination was consistent with precedent.

In its 25-page filing on Tuesday, the court said: “Despite the court’s uneasiness, then, with both the circumstances of bin Salman’s appointment and the credible allegations of his involvement in Khashoggi’s murder, the United States has informed the court that he is immune, and bin Salman is therefore ‘entitled to head of state immunity … while he remains in office.’”

“Accordingly,” the court added, “the claims against bin Salman will be dismissed based on head-of-state immunity.”

The court also dismissed the cases against Saud al-Qahtani and Ahmed al-Assiri, senior Saudi officials at the time of the killing who were named as defendants in the lawsuit, saying the plaintiffs had not adequately established that the court should have jurisdiction over the matter.

Sarah Leah Whitson, the executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now, an advocacy group that filed the lawsuit on behalf of Ms. Cengiz, wrote on Twitter that the court’s decision was “sad news for accountability.” She said that the group was consulting with lawyers on the next steps and that “our struggle for justice continues.”

Mr. Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident who wrote columns in The Washington Post criticizing the prince and the kingdom’s government, was strangled by Saudi agents and then dismembered. During the 2020 presidential campaign, President Biden vowed to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” for the killing and other human rights abuses. As one of his first foreign policy actions in office, Mr. Biden authorized the release of a U.S. intelligence report that said Prince Mohammed had approved the killing.

Mr. Biden kept his distance from the kingdom and criticized its human rights record, but this summer he bowed to suggestions from top national security aides that he should try to repair relations with Prince Mohammed. He reluctantly visited the kingdom in July and exchanged a fist bump with the prince, which drew widespread condemnation from senior Democratic lawmakers and human rights advocates.

In October, the prince led OPEC Plus, a cartel of oil-producing nations, in announcing a steep cut in production, which infuriated Mr. Biden and created a new rupture in U.S.-Saudi relations. Mr. Biden accused the prince of siding with Russia, which relies on high oil prices to support its spending during its war on Ukraine.

Top Biden aides thought they had reached a secret agreement with Saudi officials in May to increase oil production through the end of this year, though officials in Riyadh have denied making such promises.

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia

U.S. Backs Immunity for Saudi Leader in Lawsuit Over Khashoggi Murder
Nov. 18, 2022

U.S. Officials Had a Secret Oil Deal With the Saudis. Or So They Thought.
Oct. 25, 2022

Saudi Crown Prince Is Held Responsible for Khashoggi Killing in U.S. Report
Feb. 26, 2021

Edward Wong is a diplomatic correspondent who has reported for The Times for more than 22 years, based in New York, Baghdad, Beijing and Washington. He received a Livingston Award and was on a team of Pulitzer Prize finalists for Iraq War coverage. He has been a Nieman Fellow at Harvard and a visiting professor of journalism at Princeton and U.C. Berkeley. @ewong

FASCIST ZIONISM
Bibi’s Extreme Comeback

Today An Altamar podcast with
Gil Tamary
Chief International Editor and Commentator for Israel’s Channel 13 News

Former Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to supporters during a campaign event on October 29, 2022 in Bnei Brak, Israel. Israelis voted for Netanyahu in the fifth general election in four years.
Photo: Amir Levy/Getty Images

Israel just completed its fifth election in four years. This time, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come back with a new, hard-right, extremist coalition. How will that translate into domestic and foreign policy?

This week, the Altamar podcast team of Peter Schechter and Muni Jensen spoke to guest Gil Tamary, chief international news editor for Israel’s News 13 to make sense of this new government and to find out whether or not it will last.

Israel’s longest-serving prime minister — Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu — is in the saddle again with a new strategy. This time, Netanyahu aligned himself with hard-right extremist parties to clinch a victory in a narrow election. His new allies are the ultra-nationalist Religious Zionist Party, who express racist and homophobic propaganda. Will this new coalition add even more instability to this historically tumultuous region?

 
The Left Has Almost Vanished in Israel

Tamary explained what is going on in Israel: “In recent years, the political debate in Israel stopped being along ideological lines between right and left. Israeli society has shifted so much to the right that any leftist agenda actually has no power.

“More than 60% of the Israelis describe themselves as at least right-leaning or holding a right-wing position. When you’re saying ‘right,’ we mean: against the prospect of a Palestinian state, support for Jewish settlements in the territories that some of them call Judea and Samaria, and support for more traditional religious life.”

The Pro and Anti-Bibi Factions

“For the last four years, there have been two political blocks. On one side, you have the Pro-Bibi block, the Bibi supporters, which are all the usual suspects. And on the other side, there are people mainly from the center and the Left, and some from the right side of the political map. And this is the anti-Bibi block. Now, the two blocks are almost identical in their size, and that’s the way we have so many election cycles, because no one can sustain a stable coalition.”

The pro-Netanyahu camp won this time around with help from the right’s new darling: The Religious Zionist Party. What happened there? Tamary answered, “The main reason that Bibi is back in power is the fact that he played the political game in a much more clever way than his opponent.

“If we measured the number of voters for each block, it was almost identical. The issue is that the other block, the anti-Bibi block didn’t join forces, and therefore, two parties that didn’t meet the threshold of 3.25% of the vote actually were not included in the Parliament. That means 6% of the votes are not in the game as of right now. And that’s actually the reason Bibi has a majority.”
Who Is Itamar Ben Gvir?

Itamar Ben Gvir is the new political partner of Netanyahu. According to Tamary, he is an extremist. “During the Rabin Era, Ben Gvir was one of the people who incited violence and called for doing something with the prime minister. And famously he stole the hood ornament — the Cadillac ornament — from the prime minister’s official car and showed it on TV and said, ‘We got to his car and will get to him, too.’”

Altamar’s Peter Schechter asked, “Isn’t the extremist nature of this government going to be a real problem for Israel?”

Tamary explained, “It depends on who you ask and how you measure a problem. I can tell you that, for instance, Rabbi Jacobs, who is the head of the Jewish Reform Movement in America, compared nominating Ben Gvir to the national security minister, to nominating David Duke, the leader of the KKK, as U.S. Attorney General.”

 
Major Threat to Israel’s Democracy

Is there any opposition to extremist ideas within the coalition? Tamary said, “No, it’s a unanimous coalition of the right wing. It’s the right — and [then] those even more to the right. Bibi is the moderate voice here. They are talking about changing the law in a way that the Knesset — the Parliament — can overrule any Supreme Court decision.

“This means that the Parliament can decide in a majority vote to cancel any ruling. It’s a major threat to Israel’s democracy, especially because Israel doesn’t have a constitution to defend the democratic system and the democratic nature of the country, not to mention the LGBTQ community and minorities in general in Israel.”

Tamary thinks any moderation will come from running the government. “When you are running the government, you have to be much more moderate than your rhetoric prior to the election. So that’s the silver lining of the coming government.”
The Relationship With the Palestinians

What will the relationship look like for the next two years with the democratic Biden administration? Tamary said,“[Netanyahu] understands very well the importance of the alliance. … He will work hard to avoid public clashes with the Biden administration. On the other end, I don’t see the Biden administration working with Itamar Ben Gvir, for instance. So, they will bypass him like they’re doing within other countries in the world where they don’t like specific people. At the end of the day, I don’t see relations with the States deteriorating tremendously, even with this government.”

What about this new government’s relationship with the Palestinian authority? Tamary answered, “If we are talking about any prospect for peace, there is none. There is no place for dialogue, for a two-state solution.

“The concept of a two-state solution is dead for the time being and maybe dead forever, because you know, there are circumstances on the ground that change reality. And as years go by, it’ll be harder and harder to separate the two communities, especially if we’re talking about annexations or other such measures.

The Gulf states signed agreements with Israel, not because of Israel’s policy towards the Palestinians, but because of other things. So those things still exist, they don’t change. And because Bibi is the guy that will continue to be the face of Israel, I don’t see the agreements that right now we have changing anytime soon.”

Despite all this, Tamary ended the podcast on an optimistic note. “I’m sure that the sun will rise and people in Israel will continue to go to the beach and continue to crowd the restaurants and the coffee shops. Yes, there will be a right-wing government, but at the end of the day, the reality I think is more powerful than any ideology.”
Share this Article




Gil TamaryChief International Editor and Commentator for Israel’s Channel 13 News@giltamary
Gil Tamary is the chief international editor and commentator for Israel’s Channel 13 News and has served in various roles within the journalism industry. He has worked as the Washington Bureau Chief for Channel 13 and as the anchor and chief editor of “Good Morning Israel”.

PELE BE PRAISED

Aerial images used to map lava from Mauna Loa eruption in Hawaii

Aerial footage of lava flowing from Mauna Loa volcano

VIDEO
abc.net.au/news/aerial-images-map-lava-mauna-loa-eruption-hawaii/101742310COPY LINKSHARE

Scientists are using satellites and helicopters to map lava flows from the Mauna Loa volcano, and say they're seeing the lava continue its slow progress across the Big Island.

The Mauna Loa on the island of Hawaii, which is the world's largest active volcano, has erupted for the first time in 38 years.

Aerial image of fissure 3 erupting on the north-east rift zone of Mauna Loa(Supplied: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)

Officials were initially concerned that lava flowing down the side of the volcano would head toward the South Kona district.

Scientists later assured the public that the eruption migrated to a rift zone on Mauna Loa's north-east flank and was not threatening any communities.

Lava fountains measured by field crews reached heights of 40 metres, with bursts of 100 metres.(Supplied: L. Gallant/Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)

As the eruption reaches its second week, the lava flow marches slowly north toward the Daniel K. Inouye Highway, which remains open to traffic in both directions.

Image taken during a helicopter overflight and shows a lava flow branching after it cuts across the Mauna Loa Access Road.(Supplied: L. Gallant/Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)

"There's no signs of the flow stopping at any immediate term because activity up at that event on the north-east drift zone continues steadily," US Geological Survey Geologist Mike Zoeller said.

"We still see high rates of lava fusion into the upper lava channels in that region."
Aerial view of the fissure 3 lava channel, measured to be moving at 8.2-11 metres per second.(Supplied: L. Gallant/Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)

In some places the lava has been advancing at about 20 meters per hour. In channels closer to the vent it advances at 8.2-11 metres per second.

Mauna Loa, rising 4,169 metres above sea level, is the much larger neighbour to Kilauea volcano, which erupted in a residential neighbourhood and destroyed 700 homes in 2018.

Mauna Loa volcano erupts in Hawaii

Hawaii County Civil Defense Administrator Talmadge Magno has reminded visitors to stay safe and maintain the respect and be aware of the local surroundings to the community.

AP/ABC

PELE

US Justice Department subpoenas 3 states in Trump 2020 election probe: Report

Special counsel requests Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin hand over all communications with Trump, aides, allies

Darren Christopher Lyn |07.12.2022

Former U.S. President Donald Trump ( Kyle Mazza - Anadolu Agency )

HOUSTON, United States

The US Justice Department has subpoenaed officials in the state of Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin regarding a 2020 election probe of former President Donald Trump.

Special Counsel Jack Smith issued the subpoenas -- at least three of which are dated Nov. 22 -- to election officials in Maricopa County, Arizona, Wayne County, Michigan and Dane County, Wisconsin, according to records obtained by The Washington Post.

The agency is asking for all communications with or involving Trump, his campaign aides and a list of allies involved in his efforts to try to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

“I’m happy to participate in this process,” said Milwaukee clerk George Christenson, who confirmed to the Post in an interview that the subpoena asks for communications with Trump and his campaign, including several key allies.

“I don’t see any issues with it,” Christenson said. “Many of those names aren’t familiar to me, so I don't know how many of those individuals did reach out to us. For example, I don’t recall receiving anything from Rudy Giuliani. I think I would have remembered that. But who knows.”

“I don’t expect to find any smoking gun," he added.

Dane County Clerk Scott McDonell confirmed receiving a similar subpoena asking for communications he had with “the gang of people you would sort of expect.”

McDonell said he did not expect his response to the subpoena to reveal anything that “hasn’t been covered in the past.”

“I am not aware of any significant communications that have not already been made public," he said.

Smith is overseeing the Justice Department’s investigation into the presence of classified documents at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in the state of Florida as well as key aspects of a separate probe involving the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots and Trump's last-ditch efforts to remain in power.

The subpoenas are the clearest indication that Smith’s work will include an examination of fake electors that were part of Trump’s efforts to subvert the election count and certification of results of President Joe Biden's win.

The Justice Department has declined to comment on the subpoenas.

What Trump Did In The Counties That The Special Counsel Subpoenaed

WARREN, MI - OCTOBER 01: Former President Donald Trump speaks during a Save America rally on October 1, 2022 in Warren, Michigan. Trump has endorsed Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, Secretary of State 

By Josh Kovensky

What distinguishes the five counties known to have been subpoenaed by special counsel Jack Smith is that former President Trump and his campaign filed lawsuits to invalidate the 2020 election results in all of them.

The subpoenas, issued last month by a federal grand jury in Washington, D.C., but only publicly revealed Tuesday, sought communications between election officials in at least five counties and Trump, his 2020 campaign, and multiple attorneys and staffers affiliated with the re-election effort. It is not known if additional counties were subpoenaed but have yet to disclose it publicly.

What the five counties across three states have in common is that Trump filed suit to reverse the 2020 election results in each of them while his allies reportedly contacted officials in several of the areas.

With the exception of Maricopa County, Arizona, the counties are also heavily Democratic counties in key swing states, and Biden won them handily, which is partly why Trump targeted them in the first place. Biden narrowly won Maricopa County.

A recap of what is already publicly known about Trump’s efforts in each of the counties in question:

Wayne County, Michigan

In Michigan’s Wayne County, Trump reportedly called the Republican chairwoman of the county board of canvassers after she initially voted against certifying the local election results.

The Trump campaign had also sued to invalidate results in Wayne County, where Detroit is located. That lawsuit included more than 100 affidavits that were not only ridiculed as absurd in the press but whose incorporation in a subsequent “Kraken” lawsuit led a Michigan federal judge to conclude that they were fraudulent.

Amid a public outcry, Wayne County later went on to certify the election results.

The county was among those where Sidney Powell paid to obtain voting machine data.

Milwaukee County, Wisconsin

The Trump campaign sued to invalidate the results in Milwaukee County in a case brought by attorneys Jim Troupis and Kenneth Chesebro. Subpoenas asked for communications between the county and both of the attorneys.

After the 2020 election, Trump repeatedly demanded that votes in Milwaukee be thrown out. His campaign paid for a recount in the state.

Dane County, Wisconsin

The Trump campaign sued to invalidate the results in Dane County in a case brought by attorneys Jim Troupis and Kenneth Chesebro. Subpoenas asked for communications between the county and both of the attorneys.

Maricopa County, Arizona

Enraged by Fox News’ relatively early call of Arizona for Biden, Trump focused an inordinate amount of energy on Maricopa County in the aftermath of the 2020 election.

His campaign sued to block Biden’s win in the county over a scandal known as “Sharpiegate,” which posited that sharpie ink, bleeding through ballots, had cost Trump his win. His campaign dropped the suit in mid-November.

The Arizona Republic reported last year that the Trump White House tried unsuccessfully to call the chair of the county’s elections commission. Per the paper, Rudy Giuliani left a voicemail to county officials suggesting that they “get this thing fixed up.”

“You know, I really think it’s a shame that Republicans sort of, we’re both in this, kind of, situation. And I think there may be a nice way to resolve this for everybody,” Giuliani reportedly said on the voicemail.

Allegheny County, Pennsylvania

The Trump campaign sued after the 2020 election to invalidate mail-in ballots that were cast in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh. The county saw more than 330,000 mail-in votes cast out of a statewide total of 2.6 million.

That lawsuit was based on a series of fraud claims that, like the rest of them, never came close to panning out. The lawsuit was eventually thrown out of court; Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani is facing the loss of his DC law license over his role in filing it.
Sidney Powell, the Trump attorney, also spread wrong information about the county, posting at one point that more than 200,000 ballots in the county had been invalidated. In fact, a state judge ruled that more than 2,000 ballots in the county had to be counted.



Josh Kovensky is an investigative reporter for Talking Points Memo, based in New York. He previously worked for the Kyiv Post in Ukraine, covering politics, business, and corruption there.