A perfect global storm

Maleeha Lodhi 

Published January 30, 2023 



Describing the ongoing global turmoil as a perfect storm, UN Secretary General António Guterres said in his speech at the World Economic Forum that cooperation was urgently needed in a fragmented world. This was also the theme of the annual Davos meeting earlier this month. The perfect storm, he maintained, was raging on several fronts, especially economic, with an unfolding cost-of-living crisis, rising inequality, looming recession, energy crunch, soaring inflation and supply chain disruptions among its many aspects. Yet, when international solidarity was needed most, geopolitical rifts and the deepening North-South divide was undermining efforts to meet global challenges.

There is no doubt that the world is at an inflection point and in the midst of an intensely unsettled period. Instability is being engendered by rising geopolitical tensions and global economic volatility. Power shifts continue in an increasingly fragmented international system, with multilateralism under growing stress. Uncertainty is the ‘new normal’ and the outlook remains troubled. Most assessments by experts paint a picture of unpredictability ahead, with strong headwinds unleashed by competing crises and a multiplicity of interconnected but so far unmet challenges.

The World Economic Forum’s annual Global Risks Report sees an era of low-growth, low cooperation and low investment with the cost-of-living crisis presenting the biggest short-term risk confronting the world right now, and climate change as the biggest long-term threat. It identifies old and new risks which are converging to shape a fraught landscape, and finds that economic warfare has become the norm, with increasing clashes between major powers and geopolitical cooperation eroding. The report makes for sober reading, even though it expresses the hope that collective and decisive action would help to chart a way towards a more positive, inclusive and stable world.

But for now, global stability is nowhere in sight. The major contributory factors to the ongoing geopolitical turbulence and economic disruption are the war initiated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and continuing US-China confrontation. The Ukraine war, which has had global repercussions, will soon enter its second year, with no negotiated end to the conflict in sight. Russian forces are reported to be readying themselves for a spring offensive. Few, if any, diplomatic efforts are underway for a ceasefire or dialogue, which indicates that a prolonged war of attrition lies ahead. Russian targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure and strikes on key cities have not sapped Kyiv’s will to resist and fight. Nor has Western unity to help Ukraine weakened. Sophisticated military weapons have been sent to Ukraine to give it a qualitative edge in armaments. In what is described as a major policy shift, Germany and the US now plan to send battle tanks to Ukraine to help it counter Russian offensives. A week ago, the US and Nato indicated supplying a package of heavy weapons to Ukraine. All this suggests an escalation in coming months.

With rising geopolitical tensions, a divided and leaderless world is unable to meet global challenges.

The war has taken a heavy toll on the global economy, coming as it did on the back of the pandemic and its devastating economic fallout. It has disrupted global supply chains, trade, commodity and energy markets. The conflict has given rise to soaring food prices, while supply disruptions have intensified inflationary pressures across the world. This has hit poorer, debt-burdened economies especially hard. With major economies struggling to curb inflation, global financial conditions have also tightened. Weak global growth holds the prospect of recession in major economies and beyond. The international economic environment is in a volatile and uncertain state and facing a bleak future.

The Ukraine crisis isn’t the only challenge to international peace and stability. Another major source of global instability is the turbulent relationship between the US and China, the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship and a defining feature of the global landscape today. Relations between them have sunk to a historic low, raising concerns across the world about the advent of a new Cold War. Tensions have ensued in most part from America’s policy to contain China’s rise, which is being countered by an assertive response from Beijing. The US seeks to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains and products to decouple its economy from China’s. This has involved waging a trade war with Beijing. Guterres describes the risk of decoupling of the world’s two largest economies as the ‘Great Fracture’. He has often urged both countries to avoid decoupling, which would have deleterious consequences for them as well as the rest of the world.

A meeting last October between Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping in Bali — their first — on the sidelines of the G20 summit raised hopes of a de-escalation of tensions and a move towards a more stable relationship between the global powers. But it did not result in any narrowing of differences over the contentious issues and disputes that divide them, including Taiwan, trade, technology curbs and military postures. Indeed, both sides again spelt out their respective red lines on Taiwan.

While Taiwan represents the most dangerous arena of US-China confrontation, tensions are escalating on other fronts too. Washington is engaged in a battle to maintain supremacy in technology. Its national security strategy unveiled in October 2022 declares the aim is to outpace China in the technological domain. Last October, the US imposed a sweeping ban on American companies from exporting chips and advanced chip equipment to China in order to cripple its semiconductor industry. These export restrictions were the latest in the tech war and were described as “the biggest shift in US policy” on technology exports to China since the 1990s. Apart from taking this issue to the WTO, China is expected to enhance funding to its semiconductor industry. But it is by no means clear whether Washington will be able to coax its allies to join the restrictions, as the interests of their companies diverge with the US on these unilateral measures. This nevertheless underlines how intense the tech war has become.

Of course, there are other sources of instability in the world. What all of them add up to is a deeply divided and leaderless world which is increasingly falling short of addressing multiple global challenges that are cascading into what Guterres rightly calls an impending perfect storm.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK & UN.

Published in Dawn, January 30th, 2023

Tory leader asked BBC chief if ‘Pakistan origin staff’ was behind Modi film

Monitoring Desk Published January 31, 2023 

LORD Raminder Singh Ranger. —Twitter / RamiRanger.

A Conservative member of the UK’s House of Lords is facing criticism for his “racially charged” remarks over BBC’s documentary about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Guardian reported on Monday.

Raminder Singh Ranger, also known as Lord Rami Ranger, who belongs to the Conservative party, wrote a letter to BBC’s director general, Tim Davie, asking “if your Pakistani-origin staff were behind this nonsense”.

The documentary, which questio­ned Mr Modi’s leadership during the 2002 Gujarat riots, was released earlier this month. India has already ter­med the documentary ‘propaganda’.

The Tory leader called the documentary “insensitive”, one-sided, and accused the BBC of having “opened old wounds by creating hatred between British Hindus and Muslims,” the Guardian added.

India’s Supreme Court to take up petitions against govt’s move to block documentary

Mr Ranger called the film an insult to the Indian prime minister claiming he had been exonerated from having any involvement in the riots.

Mr Modi was exonerated in 2012 following an inquiry overseen by the Supreme Court and a petition questioning his exoneration was dismissed in 2022, according to Reuters

In his response, Mr Ranger defended his remarks.

“I referred to ‘any Pakistani origin’ staff of the BBC as, unfortunately, the politics of the subcontinent has been known to impact the UK, which again not conducive or helpful to our social cohesion and fragile race relation in building greater community relations,” the Guardian quoted him as saying.

India has already called the documentary a “propaganda piece” meant to push a “discredited narrative”. External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said a “bias”, “lack of objectivity”, and “continuing colonial mindset” is “blatantly visible” in the production.

Views similar to India’s stance have been echoed by another House of Lords member as well.

Another Conservative member, Dolar Popat, wrote to the BBC director general on the day the second part of the documentary was released, calling it “heavily one-sided” and urging for the film to be pulled, the Guardian added.

The BBC has defended the journalists behind the documentary. A spokesperson said the film was “rigorously researched according to highest editorial standards”.

SC to take up petitions

The Indian government’s action to block the documentary on YouTube and Twitter using emergency powers under its IT rules has been challenged in the Supreme Court which will consider the petitions next week, Reuters has reported.

The Supreme Court will take up the petitions next week, Chief Justice D Y Chandrachud said in court on Monday.

A New Delhi-based lawyer, M L Sharma, opposed the government’s move in one of the petitions, according to Reuters.

A separate petition by lawyer Prashant Bhushan, journalist N. Ram and opposition politician Mahua Moitra focused on the order to take down social media links to the documentary.

In a Twitter comment on the second petition, Law Minister Kiren Rijiju said, “This is how they waste the precious time of the Honourable Supreme Court, where thousands of common citizens are waiting and seeking dates for justice.”

Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2023

World ‘dangerously unprepared’ for next pandemic: Red Cross

AFP Published January 31, 2023

GENEVA: All countries remain “dangerously unprepared” for the next pandemic, the Red Cross warned on Monday, saying future health crises could also collide with increasingly likely climate-related disasters.

Despite three “brutal” years of the Covid-19 pandemic, strong preparedness systems are “severely lacking”, the International Federa­tion of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) said.

The world’s largest humanitarian network said building trust, equity and local action networks were vital to get ready for the next crisis.

“All countries remain dangerously unprepared for future outbreaks,” the IFRC said, concluding that governments were no more ready now than in 2019.

It said countries needed to be prepared for “multiple hazards, not just one”, saying societies only became truly resilient through planning for different types of disaster, as they can occur simultaneously.

The IFRC cited the rise in climate-related disasters and waves of disease outbreaks this century, of which Covid-19 was just one. It said extreme weather events were growing more frequent and intense, “and our ability to merely respond to them is limited”.

The IFRC issued two reports making recommendations on mitigating future tragedies on the scale of Covid-19, on the third anniversary of the World Health Orga­nisation declaring the virus an international public health emergency.

“The Covid-19 pandemic should be a wake-up call for the global community to prepare now for the next health crisis,” said IFRC secretary general Jagan Chapagain.

“The next pandemic could be just around the corner; if the experience of Covid-19 won’t quicken our steps toward preparedness, what will?” The report said major hazards harm those who are already vulnerable the most, and leaving the poorest exposed was “self-defeating”, as a disease can return in a more dangerous form.

Breakdown of trust

The IFRC said if people trusted safety messages, they would be willing to comply with public health measures and accept vaccination. But the organisation said crisis respon­ders “cannot wait until the next time to build trust”, urging consistent cultivation over time.

The IFRC said if trust was fragile, public health became political and individualised — something which impaired the Covid response.

It also said the coronavirus pandemic had thrived on and exacerbated inequalities, with poor sanitation, overcrowding, lack of access to health and social services, and malnutrition creating conditions for diseases to thrive in.

“The world must address inequitable health and socio-economic vulnerabilities far in advance of the next crisis,” it recommended.

The organisation also said local communities should be leveraged to perform life-saving work, as that is where pandemics begin and end. The IFRC called for the development of pandemic response products that are cheaper, and easier to store and administer.

By 2025, it said countries should increase domestic health finance by one percent of gross domestic product, and global health finance by at least $15 billion per year.

The IFRC said its network had reached more than 1.1 billion people over the past three years to help keep them safe during the Covid pandemic.

Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2023

Canadian research team discovers widespread manufacturing flaw in most device batteries

Story by MobileSyrup • 

An assistant professor at Dalhousie University, Nova Scotia has come forward with a discovery that could change how batteries in personal devices are manufactured.


Canadian research team discovers widespread manufacturing flaw in most device batteries© Provided by MobileSyrup

Micheal Metzger, part of a research team at the university, says that unexpected battery drainage is likely due to a widespread manufacturing flaw.

The group of Halifax-based researchers has determined that the problem stems from tiny pieces of tape that hold the components of the battery. These pieces are said to be made using the wrong type of plastic. According to Metzger, most batteries are experiencing a phenomenon known as “self-discharge.” This is caused by the battery’s electrons being unable to correctly flow through connected cables, powering a circuit, before returning to the battery. This causes the battery to be depleted internally and a device to lose its charge, even if it’s off.

“These days, batteries are very good,” Metzger said to the CBC. “But, like with any product, you want it perfected. And you want to eliminate even small rates of self-discharge.”

Dalhousie University’s battery lab is being used to test dozens of experimental battery cells. The research team is charging them and discharging them in hot environments, with temperatures upwards of 80 degrees Celsius. The team aims to learn why a battery fails over time in order to tweak its electrodes, whether positive or negative or change the electrolyte fluid.

Over the course of the team’s testing, the battery components were analyzed. As such, the team discovered that the inside casing of the battery was being held by metal, insulated coil, and tape. The sections of tape were comprised of polyethylene terephthalate (PET), commonly found in water bottles and other items. As it turns out, the use of PET leads to self-discharge within the battery.

This discovery has been public since November 2022. The Halifax research team proposes the use of a slightly more expensive plastic compound in batteries to solve the issue. A durable, more stable option is polypropylene. This compound is commonly used in reusable water bottles and doesn’t decompose as quickly as PET.

Whether or not manufacturers pick up on this discovery and adopt new procedures is another story.

Source: CBC

‘Scary time for Israeli democracy’: experts alarmed at threatened closure of public broadcaster

Story by By Sara Miller/ The Media Line • 13h ago

Members of Israel’s media and experts in the field are expressing opposition to a threat by the new government to shutter state-funded public broadcaster Kan, saying it could severely harm the country’s democratic foundations.


Members of the Israeli media protest at a busy intersection in downtown Tel Aviv over the govenrment© (photo credit: THE MEDIA LINE)

Bastions of Israeli journalists gathered at a Tel Aviv cultural center Sunday, vowing to fight Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi’s stated intention to close Kan down.

“There is no place for public broadcasting in Israel,” Karhi, a member of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, recently told the country’s Channel 12 television station. The market, he argued, should be “opened up to competition.”

It was standing room only as hundreds of members from across the Israeli media crowded into the Brodt Center for Jewish Culture in solidarity with the Kan employees facing job losses and to protest the touted closure.
KAN's outward reach

The broadcaster currently operates three television stations; Kan 11, which is largely news and current events; Makan 33, which has current events and news programs in Arabic; and Kan Educational, which features programs for young people. It also runs eight radio stations, including cultural and news stations as well as stations in Russian, Farsi, and Arabic.



‘Scary time for Israeli democracy’: experts alarmed at threatened closure of public broadcaster© Provided by The Jerusalem Post

Karhi’s declaration that Israel does not need a national public broadcaster has gone largely unnoticed internationally amid the recent uptick in deadly violence and the furor over the government’s plan to overhaul the judicial system.

While critics of the judicial reform plans warn it will give the political echelon unprecedented control over the courts, those at the protest on Sunday drew a direct line between that and the moves against Kan, calling both a threat to Israel’s democracy and freedom of speech.

Prof. Gadi Wolfsfeld, head of the Communications and New Media MA program at Reichman University’s Sammy Offer School of Communication, told The Media Line that the proposed reforms made this “a very, very scary time for Israeli democracy.”

“It’s all part of the same grand plan to [take] as much power as possible and to prevent as much criticism as possible,” Wolfsfeld said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if eventually, we see controls on newspapers as well. As we move to a less and less liberal democracy, we can see more and more of these acts.”

Citing Turkey and Hungary, Wolfsfeld compared the direction in which he said Israel was headed to “nonliberal countries where this is the kind of thing they do.”

“No one says they are going to stop here,” he said. “Let’s take a nightmare scenario, [ultranationalist National Security Minister Itamar] Ben-Gvir becomes stronger and stronger. They’ll say clearly [that they] want to go after newspapers as well, and then of course the internet. This is what this kind of government does: They take away the voice of dissent, they take away freedom of expression, they take away the opposition.”

“He can make all the excuses he wants, but if he’s neutralizing, basically castrating the Supreme Court and they’re doing all the other things they want to do, yes, I think that the backlash is going to have an effect.”Prof. Gadi Wolfsfeld, Communications and New Media at Reichman University

Professor Nicholas John of the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem also believes that the new government is attempting to quell media criticism of its activities but is additionally trying to control artistic expression.

Related video: Call for de-escalation between Israel and Palestine 

(KERO 23 Bakersfield, CA   Duration 2:06   View on Watch

“The press is a hugely important part of the proper functioning of the democratic regime,” John told The Media Line. “But with Kan, it goes further than that. It’s not only news, it’s culture. The Israeli state, like many countries, supports culture – the production of TV shows and movies – and I don’t think it’s pushing it to say that the new government is perhaps less keen on free cultural expression than previous governments we’ve had.”

Members of the new coalition, he said, “talk about how government funding shouldn’t be used for the production of documentaries, movies, cultural artifacts that are critical of the army or the state.”

Such thinking, John cautioned, is a “dangerous path” for Israel to go down.

'Our bosses are not the politicians'

“They may feel that the news is too critical of the state and [ask] again why should the state fund its own criticism, which is obviously just to profoundly misunderstand the function of journalism, which is not to be a mouthpiece for the government and its views.”

Yair Tarchitsky, a leader in journalists’ rights and the head of the Union of Journalists in Israel from 2012 to 2021, told The Media Line at Sunday’s protest that “it would be a disaster” if Kan were to be closed and vowed to battle such a decision.

“We need to preserve a strong and independent public broadcaster for the public,” Tachitsky said. “This is the only media outlet that was created with one objective – to serve the public – which is not dependent on the rich or on advertising. It is something that is important to every democratic country, and we are a democratic country.”

He said that he did not believe that Netanyahu could merely be persuaded to keep the broadcaster open and as such, “he needs to understand that there is enough strength and enough public support to fight this.”

Those present Sunday held banners reading “Here and now, protecting freedom of speech” (Kan is a homonym of the Hebrew word for here) and “I too am against the closure of the public broadcaster.”

Avi Weiss, the CEO of Kan rival Hevrat HaHadashot (the News Company), which broadcasts through Israel’s Channel 12 television, told the gathered journalists while the two entities battled one another for scoops and ratings, his organization was firmly behind the public broadcaster.

“Our bosses are not the politicians; our bosses are the viewers and the Israeli public,” Weiss said.

“We are rivals, but we at Channel 12 will fight for the right for a public broadcaster,” he vowed. “We have no other country; we have no other media.”

Some of the protesters then headed to the nearby Rabin Square, sitting in a central intersection and broadcasting their message through loudspeakers.

This is not the first time that the public broadcaster has faced closure during Netanyahu’s stint as prime minister. A similar attempt was made in 2017, during the overhaul of the former incarnation of the public broadcaster, the Israel Broadcasting Authority.

The public broadcaster was tilted too far to the left politically and almost impossible to manage, Netanyahu was quoted as saying at the time. Opposition from within Netanyahu’s then-coalition almost toppled the government and led to a compromise that allowed the new broadcaster to operate as planned.

The new government, however, is the most right-wing in Israel’s history and such. Wolfsfeld says, “composed of people who want to take control of as much of the national media as they can.”

Nonetheless, Wolfsfeld clarified, it was unclear how far the government planned to go with changes to Kan and the courts, and the politically savvy prime minister was aware of both the Israeli public backlash and opposition from its allies around the world.

“I think that Netanyahu is smart enough to realize that if he goes through [with this] there’s a tremendous price to pay, internationally, domestically,” he said.

“He can make all the excuses he wants, but if he’s neutralizing, basically castrating the Supreme Court and they’re doing all the other things they want to do, yes, I think that the backlash is going to have an effect.”

CROCODILE TEARS
US state secretary voices sorrow for ‘innocent’ Palestinians killed

AFP Published January 31, 2023

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a press conference at the Waldorf Astoria in Jerusalem on January 31. — Reuters

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed his sorrow on Tuesday for “innocent” Palestinians killed in a spike of violence in the occupied West Bank, after meeting Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas.

Washington’s top diplomat met Abbas in the West Bank city of Ramallah on the final stop of a Middle East tour aimed at curbing the bloodshed, following meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The area is reeling from a new wave of violence. On Thursday, the deadliest Israeli army raid in years in the West Bank claimed 10 Palestinian lives. A day later on Friday, a Palestinian shot dead seven people in an Israeli settlement in annexed east Jerusalem.

This month the violence has killed 35 Palestinian adults and children as well as six Israeli civilians, including a child, and one Ukrainian, killed on Friday.

Speaking in Ramallah, Blinken expressed his “sorrow for the innocent Palestinian civilians who have lost their lives in escalating violence over the last year”.

The year 2022 was the deadliest in the West Bank since the United Nations started tracking fatalities in the occupied territory in 2005.

“Palestinians and Israelis alike are experiencing growing insecurity, growing fear in their homes, in their communities and in their places of worship,” said Blinken.

The US envoy’s remarks alongside the Palestinian leader came a day after he met with Netanyahu when he urged both sides to take “urgent steps” to calm tensions.

After meeting Palestinian residents in the West Bank, the US top diplomat said he saw a “shrinking horizon of hope” for Palestinians.

‘Unwavering support’

Before heading to the West Bank on Tuesday, Blinken met new Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, who took office as part of the right-wing government Netanyahu formed in December.

Gallant praised Blinken for his “unwavering support” in helping safeguard Israel’s military superiority in the region.

The east Jerusalem shooting was preceded by the Israeli forces’ deadliest operation in the West Bank in years, killing 10 people on Thursday in the densely populated Jenin refugee camp. Israel said its forces targeted Islamic Jihad operatives.

The Israeli military later hit sites in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip in response to rocket fire from the Palestinian enclave.

Hamas said Blinken’s visit “emphasises the absolute support and partnership with the [Israeli] occupation”.

Netanyahu’s cabinet has moved to punish “the families of terrorists that support terrorism” with home demolitions and other measures.

His government is also planning to rescind the rights to social security benefits of attackers’ relatives, and steps to make it easier for Israeli citizens to obtain permits to carry firearms.

‘Close the file’

Blinken had made an initial stop in Egypt, where he met President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, commending “Egypt’s important role in promoting stability in the region”.

The diplomats and intelligence services of Egypt — a major recipient of US military aid — are regularly called upon to intercede between Israelis and Palestinians.

Blinken’s Israel visit is part of the Biden administration’s efforts to engage quickly with Netanyahu, who had tense relations with the previous Democratic president Barack Obama.

Blinken reiterated US support for a Palestinian state, a prospect few expect to advance under the new Israeli government.

Speaking in Ramallah, Blinken criticised Israeli moves which Washington believes create barriers to the two-state solution.

He listed “settlement expansion, the legalisation of [settlement] outposts, demolitions and evictions, disruptions to the historic status of the holy sites, and, of course, incitement and acquiescence to the violence”.

Controversial policies such as settlements and demolition of Palestinian homes have been high on the agenda of Netanyahu’s new government, the most-right wing administration in Israeli history.

During Netanyahu’s previous tenure, Israel established ties with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco, under deals brokered by then-US president Donald Trump.

Netanyahu said on Monday that expanding those deals and “working to close, finally, the file of the Arab-Israeli conflict, I think would also help us achieve a workable solution with our Palestinian neighbours”.

Death toll from Pakistan mosque suicide bombing rises to at least 100, 150 wounded

Death toll from Pakistan mosque suicide bombing rises to at least 100
Euronews

Mon, 30 January 2023 

The death toll from the Monday's suicide bombing at a mosque in northwestern Pakistan rose to 100 on Tuesday, officials said.

The assault on a Sunni mosque inside a major police facility was one of the deadliest attacks on Pakistani security forces in recent years. Current and former officials say the attack reflects reflects “security lapses".

More than 300 worshippers were praying in the mosque in the city of Peshawar, with more approaching, when the bomber set off his explosives vest on Monday morning.

The blast ripped through the mosque, killing and injuring scores of people, and also blew off part of the roof.

What was left of the roof then caved in, injuring many more, according to Zafar Khan, a police officer. Rescuers had to remove mounds of debris to reach worshippers still trapped under the rubble.

More bodies were retrieved from the rubble of the mosque overnight and throughout the day on Tuesday, according to Mohammad Asim, a government hospital spokesman in Peshawar, and several of those critically injured died in hospital.

“Most of them were policemen,” Asim said of the victims.

Bilal Faizi, the chief rescue official, said rescue teams were still working Tuesday at the site of the mosque — located inside a police compound in a high security zone of the city — as more people are believed trapped inside after the roof caved in.

He said the bombing also wounded more than 150 people.

Counter-terrorism police are investigating how the bomber was able to reach the mosque, which is in a walled compound, inside a high security zone with other government buildings.

“Yes, it was a security lapse,” said Ghulam Ali, the provincial governor in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, of which Peshawar is the capital.

Abbasi, the official who gave the latest casualty tolls, concurred. “There was a security lapse and the inspector-general of the police has set up an inquiry committee, which will look into all aspects of the bombing,” he said.

“Action will be taken against those whose negligence” enabled the attack.

Authorities have not yet determined exactly who was behind the bombing. Shortly after the explosion on Monday, Sarbakaf Mohmand, a commander for the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP, claimed responsibility for the attack in a post on Twitter.

But hours later, TTP spokesperson Mohammad Khurasani distanced the group from the bombing, saying it was not its policy to target mosques, seminaries and religious places, adding that those taking part in such acts could face punitive action under TTP’s policy.

His statement did not address why a TTP commander had claimed responsibility for the bombing.

Suicide bomber kills 59 in Pakistan mosque used by police

Mon, January 30, 2023
By Jibran Ahmad and Asif Shahzad

PESHAWAR, Pakistan (Reuters) -A suicide bomber blew himself up inside a crowded mosque in a highly fortified security compound in Pakistan on Monday, killing 59 people, including 27 police officials, the latest in a string of attacks targeting police.

The attacker appeared to have passed through several barricades manned by security forces to get into the "Red Zone" compound that houses police and counter-terrorism offices in the volatile northwestern city of Peshawar, police said.

"It was a suicide bombing," Peshawar Police Chief Ijaz Khan told Reuters. He said the mosque hall was packed with up to 400 worshippers at the time and many of the 170 wounded were in critical condition.

The death toll rose to 59 after several people succumbed to their wounds, hospital official Mohammad Asim said in a statement. Police said 27 of the dead were police officials.

Local Taliban known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, an umbrella group of Sunni and sectarian militant groups, denied responsibility.

The bomber detonated his load at the moment hundreds of people lined up to say their prayers, officials said.

"We have found traces of explosives," Khan told reporters, adding that a security lapse had clearly occurred as the bomber had slipped through the most secure area of the compound.

An inquiry was under way into how the attacker breached such an elite security cordon and whether there was any inside help.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, the worst in Peshawar since March 2022 when an Islamic State suicide bombing killed at least 58 people in a Shi'ite Muslim mosque during Friday prayers.

Peshawar, which straddles the edge of Pakistan's tribal districts bordering Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, is frequently targeted by Islamist militant groups including Islamic State and the Pakistani Taliban.

"Tehreek-e-Taliban has nothing to do with this attack," the TTP said in a statement.

The bombing happened a day before an International Monetary Fund mission to Islamabad to initiate talks on unlocking funding for the South Asian country's economy, which is enduring a balance of payments crisis.

'ALLAH IS THE GREATEST'

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told Geo TV that the bomber was standing in the first row of worshippers.

"As the prayer leader said 'Allah is the greatest', there was a big bang," Mushtaq Khan, a policeman with a head wound, told reporters from his hospital bed.

"We couldn't figure out what happened as the bang was deafening. It threw me out of the veranda. The walls and roof fell on me."

The explosion brought down the upper storey of the mosque, trapping dozens of worshippers in the rubble. TV footage showed rescuers cutting through the collapsed rooftop to make their way down and tend to victims caught in the wreckage.

"We can't say how many are still under it," said provincial governor Haji Ghulam Ali.

Witnesses described chaotic scenes as the police and the rescuers scrambled to rush the wounded to hospitals.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack.

"The sheer scale of the human tragedy is unimaginable," Sharif said. "This is no less than an attack on Pakistan. The nation is overwhelmed by a deep sense of grief. I have no doubt terrorism is our foremost national security challenge."

Sharif, who appealed to employees of his party to donate blood at the hospitals, said anyone targeting Muslims during prayer had nothing to do with Islam.

(Reporting by Jibran Ahmad in Peshawar and Asif Shahzad in Islamabad; Additional reporting by Saud Mehsud in Dera Ismail Khan; Writing by Shilpa Jamkhandikar and Asif Shahzad; Editing by Grant McCool and Rosalba O'Brien)

Police Lines bombing

Editorial 

Published January 31, 2023

Monday’s savage bombing targeting a mosque in Peshawar’s Police Lines is a disturbing reminder of the havoc the proscribed TTP is capable of, as well as a tragic illustration of the failed policy of suing for peace with the terrorist group.

In the TTP’s worldview, either the state accepts their unreasonable demands, or gets ready to face murderous rampages like the mosque bombing. It is also a fatal security lapse in what is supposed to be one of the most well-protected parts of the KP capital, bringing back memories of last year’s Koocha Risaldar bombing in the same city. That atrocity was carried out by IS-K.

Monday’s bloodbath has reportedly been claimed by the Mohmand faction of the TTP, apparently as ‘revenge’ for the killing of Omar Khalid Khorasani in Afghanistan last August. That notorious militant had at different times been associated with IS-K, Jamaatul Ahrar, as well as the TTP.

KP has been bearing the brunt of the terrorist onslaught ever since the TTP renounced their truce with the state late last year. While attacks mainly targeting law-enforcement personnel have been occurring with regular frequency, the Police Lines bombing is surely a major escalation, considering the high body count, specifically targeting the policemen and army troops that were offering prayers in the mosque. Sadly, the needed response from the political leadership, treasury and opposition included, as well as the security establishment to the TTP threat, has been lacking.

Politically, the nation has been witnessing paralysis over the past several months, with the PDM and PTI gunning for each other in a destructive battle of nerves. Meanwhile, there exist caretaker governments in KP and Punjab, while policymaking is largely frozen, mainly due to questions about when general elections will be held, as the economy nosedives. This ‘perfect storm’ presents an ideal opportunity for the TTP and others of their ilk to strike at the state.

It is welcome that the prime minister and the interior minister rushed to Peshawar following the tragedy, while the outrage was condemned across the political spectrum. However, more than ‘thoughts and prayers’, what is required now is action. At least where the menace of terrorism is concerned, the government and opposition need to close ranks and put up a united front, working with the security forces to plan and execute a result-oriented counterterrorism strategy.

The foreign minister has said the National Action Plan is the only solution to neutralise the terrorist threat. There can be little disagreement with this, which is why political forces and the establishment need to put all their energies into implementing NAP. Intelligence-based operations should be launched to uproot the terrorist infrastructure, particularly their sympathisers and support system. Too much precious blood of our security men and civilians has been shed to let the ogre of terrorism reanimate itself.

Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2023

Road to perdition

Editorial 

DAWN

Published February 1, 2023

A RECKONING is called for, a reckoning unlike that which this nation has ever seen. It must happen now — or, as surely as night follows day, more bestial acts of violence like that which took place in Peshawar on Monday will continue to claim the lives of innocent Pakistanis. And it must come from those who sowed the seeds of a disastrous policy that is once again reaping a harvest of blood.

There is not much to be gained in pointing the finger of blame at particular individuals, though some are indeed more culpable than others. The security establishment as a whole has since decades persisted with a myopic approach to militancy, one that could only lead to perdition.

Its disregard, bordering on contempt, for any input from the civilian leadership — which had to face the public’s wrath as the body count rose — kept it insulated from what might have been wiser counsel.

Following the horrific APS attack in 2014, it seemed for a time that the state had seen the folly in its ‘good Taliban, bad Taliban’ strategy. The National Action Plan that was a response to that tragedy stipulated 20 steps towards eradicating extremism in society.

But while the civilians faltered in taking the measures they were responsible for, the establishment’s inconsistent policy towards militants remained in play and negated whatever steps the government did take.

When the civilian leadership in 2016 warned that Pakistan risked international isolation unless it cracked down on militants of all stripe, it was ruthlessly — and very publicly — cut down to size, leaving no doubt as to who was calling the shots.

Some action against the ‘good Taliban’ was only initiated when Pakistan was about to be placed on the FATF grey list. As a result, ‘charitable entities’ that had earned an international reputation as fronts for extremist propaganda and militancy were forced to suspend their activities.

Nevertheless, some extremist groups continued to find space to hold press conferences and rallies, even field candidates in elections.

Contrast that with the persecution of individuals like Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement leaders Manzoor Pashteen and Ali Wazir, who were warning that militants were once again gaining a foothold in the tribal districts, some of them with the blessing of the state.

After the military-led ‘peace talks’ with the TTP failed and the terrorist outfit began to carry out countrywide attacks, it became clear who had gained from the exercise. In the fullness of time, the state’s missteps are plain to see. The glib platitudes, the doublespeak about ‘zero tolerance’ for militancy have been shown up for what they are.

A break from the past is needed, but for that the establishment must come clean so that we can start working to put behind us the confusion created by its dangerously muddled policy.

Published in Dawn, February 1st, 2023

A treacherous deal

Zahid Hussain

Published February 1, 2023 

TERROR has struck with renewed ferocity, reminding us yet again of the wages of appeasement. The suicide bombing that killed and wounded scores of worshippers inside a mosque in Peshawar raises questions about our flawed counterterrorism strategy.

The bombing that occurred inside a high-security zone demonstrates the rising capacity of the militants to carry out high-profile terrorist actions with deadly effects.

A faction of the outlawed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) with links to the so-called Islamic State’s Khorasan chapter has claimed responsibility for the bombing. The emerging nexus of transnational militant groups has rendered the situation more alarming. Militant groups now seem to have regrouped and appear better equipped with the help of their patrons on the other side of the border. The return of Taliban rule in Afghanistan has certainly given a boost to violent militancy here.

But it is the weakness of the Pakistani state and the absence of a clear policy direction that has allowed the militants to regain their space. Monday’s Police Lines mosque attack in an area that houses the offices of various civilian law-enforcement agencies has exposed the failure of our entire security apparatus.

Most alarming are the reports about the possible involvement of some insiders in the attack. It is apparent that such massive terrorist action requires a strong support network.

There has been a marked escalation in terrorist attacks in the troubled province over the past several months following a reportedly dubious deal with the banned outfit that allowed the militants who had fled to Afghanistan to escape the military operation to return home.

According to some media reports, thousands of armed militants have crossed the border and re-established their bases in the region.

The so-called peace negotiations were just used as a cover by the militants to gain time.

Former prime minister Imran Khan, in a recent statement, revealed that his government had planned to resettle TTP fighters in Pakistan’s tribal districts with the help of the Afghan Taliban. He has blamed the latest resurgence of terrorism in the country on the “unwillingness of the current government to abide by the commitments made by the previous regime”.

“When the militants came, they were not rehabilitated or given any proper attention, and no money was spent on them. We were afraid that if we did not pay attention to them, then terrorism would start in different places, which [is what] has happened,” the former prime minister is reported to have said at a seminar recently.

Khan’s revelation gives credence to reports of a deal with the terrorist group that is responsible for the killing of thousands of Pakistani civilians and security personnel. Under that deal, several militant leaders who had declared war on the Pakistani state were also released.

It was yet another act of surrender by the state to the militants who have refused to lay down their arms and accept the state’s authority. The nation is now paying the cost of appeasement with the blood of its citizens.

It’s apparent that the deal had been done with the full approval of the security establishment. There was a public uproar when the state decided to start so-called peace negotiations with the TTP facilitated by the Afghan Taliban regime.

But the protests didn’t stop the then ISI chief from going to Kabul and sitting across the table with the outlawed group. Instead of surrendering, the TTP leaders set out their own conditions for talks that virtually asked the state to hand over its control of the former tribal areas to them.

Despite the fact that the negotiations were going nowhere, the state continued to engage in talks with the globally declared terrorist group. The militants used the negotiations to reorganise themselves.

The so-called peace negotiations and the ceasefire were just used as a cover by the militants to gain time. Meanwhile, the state allowed thousands of militants to return with their arms. Parliament and the nation were kept in the dark on the deal that Imran Khan has confirmed.

Not surprisingly, the TTP called off the ceasefire after regrouping and unleashed a deadly wave of terrorist attacks. The end of a tenuous ceasefire has further intensified the militant violence.

Targeted killings, suicide bombings and other forms of attack on security installations have returned to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with lethal force, taking a huge toll on lives, after years of relative calm. The former tribal regions of Bajaur, North and South Waziristan and adjoining districts have been the worst hit.

The attacks have been getting more brazen in recent weeks, with the TTP extending its lethal activities to other parts of the country. In the past three months, the outlawed terror group has claimed more than 150 attacks in KP alone. The police and other security agencies have been the main target of the terrorist group amid worsening political instability that has crippled the provincial administration.

The civilian law-enforcement agencies seem to have collapsed in the face of the militant assault. The Peshawar mosque attack has been the deadliest in recent years and has shaken the country. It raises serious questions about the state of our preparedness to deal with the renewed terrorist threat. Meanwhile, the worsening political and economic crisis has pushed the country close to anarchy.

It has also led to the weakening of the state authority, providing a favourable environment to outlawed groups with a strong ally across the border. The threat to national security has become more serious with the reported tactical alliance between the TTP and some Baloch separatist groups. Consequently, there has been a tangible escalation in terrorist attacks in Balochistan in recent months.

The National Security Committee last month vowed to deal with the terrorist violence with “the full force of the state”. But there is still no clear strategy in place to deal with this existential threat.

Solemn declarations cannot be a substitute for actions. It is most important that the nation be told about the controversial deal with the militants that the former prime minister referred to. Such underhand dealings have earned the country the dubious distinction of being the epicentre of militancy, undermining not only its own national security but also that of the region.

The writer is an author and journalist.
zhussain100@yahoo.com
Twitter:@hidhussain

Published in Dawn, February 1st, 2023

A dire forecast: Scientists used AI to find planet could cross critical warming threshold sooner than expected

Story by Christian Edwards • CNN - Yesterday 

The planet could cross critical global warming thresholds sooner than previous models have predicted, even with concerted global climate action, according to a new study using machine learning.

The study estimates that the planet could reach 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels in a decade, and found a “substantial possibility” of global temperature rises crossing the 2-degree threshold by mid-century, even with significant global efforts to bring down planet-warming pollution.

Data shows average global temperature has already climbed risen around 1.1 to 1.2 degrees since industrialization.

“Our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change, over the next three decades,” noted the report, published on Monday in the journal the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries have pledged to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees – and preferably to 1.5 degrees – compared to pre-industrial levels.

Scientists have identified 1.5 degrees of warming as a key tipping point beyond which the chances of extreme flooding, drought, wildfires and food shortages will increase dramatically.

Temperature rises over 2 degrees could bring catastrophic and potentially irreversible impacts, including pushing three billion people into “chronic water scarcity.”

The study used artificial neural networks – a type of machine learning or artificial intelligence – which scientists trained on climate models and then used historical observations of temperature around the world “as independent input from which the AI makes a prediction,” said Noah Diffenbaugh, a professor at Stanford University and a co-author on the study.

Diffenbaugh and his co-author Elizabeth Barnes, a professor at Colorado State University, assessed three different scenarios: Low, medium and high “forcing” climate pathways, which refer to the intensity of the heating caused by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

In all three scenarios, the scientists estimated that the world would hit 1.5 degrees of warming between 2033 and 2035, even if planet-warming pollution is substantially reduced.

Diffenbaugh said that while “individual years are likely to reach 1.5 degrees sooner,” their predictions “are focused on how long until the global mean temperature was warmed 1.5 degrees.”



The planet could cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold in a decade.

 - Thomas Coex/AFP/Getty Images

The study’s prediction is in line with previous models. In a major report published in 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the world could cross the 1.5-degree threshold “in the early 2030s.”

Where the study departs from many current projections is in its estimates of when the world will cross the 2-degree threshold.

While the IPCC projects that in a low emissions scenario, global temperature rises are unlikely to hit 2 degrees by the end of the century, the study returned more concerning results.

The AI predicted a probability of around 80% that 2 degrees warming will be reached before 2065, even if, over the next half century, the world reaches net-zero – where it removes at least as much planet-warming pollution from the atmosphere as it emits.

If emissions stay high, Diffenbaugh said, the AI predicted a 50% probability that 2 degrees will be reached before 2050.

There is “clear evidence that a half degree of global warming poses substantial risks for people and ecosystems. Hence, the greater the global warming, the greater the challenges for adaptation,” Diffenbaugh said.

While many net zero decarbonization pledges and targets have been framed around holding global warming to 1.5 degrees, he added: “The AI predictions in our study suggest that those may be necessary to avoid 2 degrees.”

The use of machine learning to make predictions is increasing in climate science, Diffenbaugh said.

“The AI is able to learn the most reliable indicators of how long is left until a given global warming level is reached in a large number of sometimes contradictory climate model predictions.”

AI: World likely to hit key warming threshold in 10-12 years



Mon, January 30, 2023 

The world will likely breach the internationally agreed-upon climate change threshold in about a decade, and keep heating to break through a next warming limit around mid-century even with big pollution cuts, artificial intelligence predicts in a new study that's more pessimistic than previous modeling.

The study in Monday’s journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reignites a debate on whether it's still possible to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as called for in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, to minimize the most damaging effects of climate change. The world has already warmed 1.1 or 1.2 degrees since pre-industrial times, or the mid-19th century, scientists say.

Two climate scientists using machine learning calculated that Earth will surpass the 1.5 degree (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) mark between 2033 and 2035. Their results fit with other, more conventional methods of predicting when Earth will break the mark, though with a bit more precision.

“There will come a time when we call the 1.5C target for maximum warming dead, beyond the shadow of a doubt,” Brown University environment institute director Kim Cobb, who wasn’t part of the study, said in an email interview. “And this paper may be the beginning of the end of the 1.5C target.”

Stanford University's Noah Diffenbaugh, a study co-author, said the world is on the brink of the 1.5-degree mark in “any realistic emissions reduction scenario.” Avoiding a 2-degree rise, he said, may depend on nations meeting zero-emissions goals by the middle of this century.

The artificial intelligence-based study found it unlikely that temperature increase could be held below 2 degrees Celsius, even with tough emissions cuts. And that’s where the AI really differs with scientists who had been forecasting using computer models that are based on past observations, Diffenbaugh said.

In a high-pollution scenario, the AI calculated, the world would hit the 2-degree mark around 2050. Lower pollution could stave that off until 2054, the machine learning calculated.

In contrast, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change figured in its 2021 report that the same lower-pollution scenario would see the world pushing past 2 degrees sometime in the 2090s.

Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn’t part of the Diffenbaugh study but was part of the IPCC, said the study makes sense, fits with what scientists know, but seems a bit more pessimistic.

There’s a lot of power in using AI and in the future that may be shown to produce better projections, but more evidence is needed before concluding that, Mahowald said.

Normally, climate scientists use a bunch of computer model simulations, some running hot and some cold, and then try to figure out which ones are doing the best job. That's often based on how they performed in the past or in simulations of the past, Diffenbaugh said. What the AI does is more keyed to the climate system now, he said.

“We’re using this very powerful tool that is able to take information and integrate it in a way that no human mind is able to do, for better or for worse,” Diffenbaugh said.

Each year, government climate negotiators at a United Nations summit proclaim that they have managed to “keep 1.5 alive.” But with the latest study there’s a divide among scientists on how true that really is. Diffenbaugh said there’s been so much warming already that it really doesn’t matter how pollution is cut in the next several years, the world will hit 1.5, the AI figures.

Zeke Hausfather of the tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth, who was not part of the study, agreed, saying it's time to “stop pretending” that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is possible. Some scenarios do see temperatures warming past the mark but then coming back down, something called “overshoot.”

Other scientists not involved with the study, such as University of Pennsylvania’s Michael Mann and Climate Analytics’ Bill Hare and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner maintain 1.5 is still alive. They say one rapid decarbonization scenario that Diffenbaugh didn’t examine shows the world can mostly keep under the threshold.

If the world can cut its carbon emissions in half by 2030 “then warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees” with a tiny overshoot and then reductions to get under the mark, Hare said.

Believing that the world can no longer keep warming below 1.5 “is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Mann said by email. “In the end it’s easy to overinterpret the significance of a precise threshold like 1.5C warming. The challenge is to limit warming as much as possible.”

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Follow AP’s climate and environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

___

Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

___

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Seth Borenstein, The Associated Press

China's Sichuan frees unmarried people to legally have children



People shop at a market in Beijing

Mon, January 30, 2023

Beijing (Reuters) - Health authorities in China's southwestern province of Sichuan will allow unmarried individuals to raise a family and enjoy benefits reserved for married couples, in the latest effort to bolster a falling birth rate.

The government dictates that only married women are legally allowed to give birth, but with marriage and birth rates having fallen to record lows in recent years, provincial authorities revamped a 2019 rule to cover singles who want to have children.

From Feb. 15, married couples and any individuals who want offspring will be allowed to register with the government in China's fifth most populous province, with no ceiling on the number of children they can register for.

The measure aims to "promote long-term and balanced population development," Sichuan's health commission said in a statement on its website.

Until now, the commission had allowed only married couples who wanted to have up to two children to register with local authorities.

China's population shrank last year for the first time in six decades, a historic turn expected to usher in a period of decline. That prospect is pushing authorities to roll out incentives and measures to boost the population.

A nationwide registry system for couples to register with local authorities ensures maternity insurance to cover medical bills, while letting married women keep their salary during maternity leave.

These benefits will now be extended to single women and men in Sichuan, which ranks seventh in the nation in terms of those older than 60, or more than 21% of its population, government figures show.

Much of China's demographic downturn stems from its one-child policy imposed between 1980 and 2015.

(Reporting by Farah Master in Hong Kong and Albee Zhang in Beijing; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

'They fire, we hire' - Germany seizes on Silicon Valley's woes


An almost full moon is seen behind the quadriga of Brandenburg Gate in Berlin

Mon, January 30, 2023 
By Rene Wagner and Jan Schwartz

BERLIN (Reuters) - Faced with a tight labour market and a shortage of workers with key software engineering skills, some German companies are looking at thousands of layoffs in Silicon Valley as an opportunity to recruit top talent.

The U.S. West Coast has always been the main destination for ambitious software engineers looking to work in the best-paid, most elite corner of their profession, but the mass redundancies have created a pool of jobseekers that Germany is eager to tap.

"They fire, we hire," said Rainer Zugehoer, Chief People Officer at Cariad, the software subsidiary of automaker Volkswagen. "We have several hundred open positions in the U.S., in Europe and in China."

Spooked by inflation and the prospect of recession, Google parent Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook owner Meta have announced a combined almost 40,000 job cuts.

While Germany is also teetering on the edge of recession, its companies have grown more slowly in recent years and, in a country notorious for still handling business by fax, there are huge technology leaps to be made.

Germany, with one of the world's oldest populations, has gaping holes in its labour force: according to IT industry group Bitkom, 137,000 IT jobs are unfilled.

The government is simplifying immigration rules and dangling the prospect of easily-acquired citizenship to tempt skilled would-be immigrants, and regional authorities are pressing ahead.

"I would like to cordially invite you to move to Bavaria," wrote Judith Gerlach, digitalisation minister in Germany's wealthiest region on LinkedIn in a post addressed to the recently laid off.

Especially with the euro at dollar parity, few European companies pay rates that compete with the hundreds of thousands of dollars on offer at California's most successful companies, but some hope cheaper healthcare and lower costs compared to hotspots like San Francisco can help.

"And did I mention Oktoberfest?" Gerlach added, adding Munich's famed beer festival to the strong labour protections that might prove attractive to the newly jobless.

Some are sceptical, with Bitkom's Bernhard Rohleder noting that Germany is competing not just with other countries for the most talented, but with potential recruits' home countries too.

Germany's penchant for red tape could be another challenge: companies are already reporting months-long delays in securing appointments for their new hires to get work permits.

"Bureaucracy in Germany is utterly crippling for most highly-qualified workers when they first encounter it, especially if they don't speak German," said Diana Stoleru of Berlin startup Lendis.

(Writing by Thomas Escritt; Editing by Mark Potter)

NEUTRALIZE ALL NUKES
Russia warns United States: the end of nuclear arms control may be nigh

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov leaves after talks with U.S. Under Secretary of State Nuland in Moscow

Sun, January 29, 2023 
By Guy Faulconbridge

LONDON (Reuters) -Russia told the United States on Monday that the last remaining pillar of bilateral nuclear arms control could expire in 2026 without a replacement due to what it said were U.S. efforts to inflict "strategic defeat" on Moscow in Ukraine.

Both Russia and the United States still have vast arsenals of nuclear weapons which are currently partially limited by the 2011 New START Treaty, which in 2021 was extended until 2026.

What comes after Feb. 4, 2026, however, is unclear, though Washington has indicated it wants to reach a follow-on agreement with Russia.

Asked if Moscow could envisage there being no nuclear arms control treaty after 2026, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the RIA state new agency: "This is quite a possible scenario."

Ryabkov, Russia's top arms control diplomat, said the United States had in recent years ignored Russia's interests and dismantled most of the architecture of arms control.

"New START may well fall victim to this," Ryabkov told RIA. "We are ready for such a scenario."

His remarks constitute a warning to Washington that its continued military support for Ukraine could scupper the final major post-Cold War bilateral arms control treaty with Russia.

The United States has supplied more than $27 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia invaded the country on Feb. 24, including over 1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft rocket systems, 8,500 Javelin anti-tank missile systems and over 1 million 155mm artillery rounds.

"The entire situation in the sphere of security, including arms control, has been held hostage by the U.S. line of inflicting strategic defeat on Russia," Ryabkov said.

"We will resist this in the strongest possible way using all the methods and means at our disposal."

NUCLEAR CONTROLS

U.S.-Russia talks on resuming inspections under the New START treaty were called off at the last minute in November 2022. The sides have not agreed on a time frame for new talks.

Russia and the United States, which during the Cold War were constrained by a tangle of arms control agreements, still account together for about 90% of the world's nuclear warheads.

The United States said in its 2022 Nuclear Posture Review that Russia and China were expanding and modernising their nuclear forces, and that Washington would pursue an approach based on arms control to head off costly arms races.

The New START Treaty limited both sides to 1,550 warheads on deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine ballistic missiles and heavy bombers. Both sides met the central limits by 2018.

"Expiration of the Treaty without a follow-on agreement would leave Russia free to expand strategic nuclear forces that are now constrained, as well as novel intercontinental-range and regional systems that are not currently limited by the Treaty," according to the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review.

"Russia is pursuing several novel nuclear-capable systems designed to hold the U.S. homeland or Allies and partners at risk, some of which are also not accountable under New START."

(Writing by Guy FaulconbridgeEditing by Gareth Jones)

Reports of Torture, Unfair Trials in Iran Trigger Fresh Alarm Over Fate of Protesters



Golnar Motevalli
Sun, January 29, 2023 

(Bloomberg) -- Rights groups warned that several young people, including teenagers who’ve been jailed by Iran for their involvement in anti-government protests, are at risk of being executed, and have been tortured.

In a statement, London-based Amnesty International urged Iran to immediately quash death sentences for three protesters — ages 18, 19 and 31 — charged with at least two capital offenses each after court hearings that lasted less than an hour.

Widespread demonstrations against the leadership of the Islamic Republic erupted in mid-September over the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman. She collapsed at a police station after being arrested for allegedly flouting Iran’s strict dress code for women.

Iran has been condemned by many countries for its use of violence and executions to suppress the protests, which have been largely led by women and young people and have presented a major challenge to the hardline clerical leadership.

Arshia Takdastan, Mehdi Mohammadifard and Javad Rouhi are each accused of “inciting arson or vandalism by dancing, clapping, chanting or throwing headscarves into bonfires” during protests in a town in northern Iran on Sept. 21, according to Amnesty.

The men have have been subjected to “floggings, electric shocks, being hung upside down and death threats at gunpoint” by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to extract confessions, Amnesty said, citing “informed sources on the ground.”

In its statement, Amnesty added that one of the men had been raped and another sexually tortured while in detention. Rouhi was also charged with a third capital offense of apostasy after being accused of burning a copy of the Koran.

Activists have also called for the release of 21-year-old Armita Abbasi, who was arrested in October after criticizing the Islamic Republic in social media posts and is due to stand trial on Sunday. According to a Nov. 21 report by CNN, citing interviews with unnamed doctors in Iran, she has been repeatedly raped in detention and needed treatment in hospital for severe bleeding.

Iran’s state-run media denied the reports.

According to the BBC, Abbasi’s father confirmed in an Instagram post on Saturday that she’ll be represented by a court-approved lawyer after her original attorney resigned from his position because he was barred from meeting her.

Abbasi is being held in a prison near the city of Karaj, on the western outskirts of Tehran. The Oslo-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported on Jan. 6 that she’d joined a group hunger strike involving 14 other women prisoners.

FAUX OUTRAGE FROM THE TORONTO SUN

Theatres spark outrage with black-only audience policy

David Millward

THE TELEGRAPH
Sun, 29 January 2023 

Is God Is poster

Two major Canadian theatres have sparked outrage by announcing exclusive performances for an “all black-identifying audience”.

In Ottawa, the National Arts Theatre – one of Canada’s biggest taxpayer-funded performing arts organisations – will hold its first ever “Black Out” night on February 17, at the 897-seat Babs Asper Theatre.

The organisation is putting on a performance of “Is God Is” – a revenge story about two African-American sisters written in 2018.

A similar event is planned by the Theatre Passe Muraille in Toronto on February 9, with two plays: “Okay you can stop now” and “X and Da Spirit” – which was written about the author’s experiences during the Black Lives Matter protests.

According to the Toronto theatre, the purpose of the events is to facilitate “a safe environment for a personal and intimate discussion on the work made and performed by black artists”. It added that it welcomed everyone who self-identifies as black to attend this performance.

However, while white attendees could not be banned from attending the show on a Black Out night, the theatre made clear they would not be welcome.

“If someone identifies as a non-black person and requests to enter the room, a member of our team will be present to speak to that person.

“We try our best to have this labour land on a non-black staff member and we will have non-black front-of-house, leadership or technical and production team members present in the lobby to help de-escalate such situations.

“We will also specify across our ticketing and show pages, social media and other communications that the Black Out Night performance is dedicated to black audiences.
‘There will be no checkpoints’

In Ottawa, the National Arts Centre said: “No one is turned away at the door. There will be no checkpoints for Black Out Night ticket holders and no questions will be asked about the identity, race or gender of anyone”.

A non-black member of staff will be on hand to have “a chat” with anyone who seeks to defy the admissions policy.

Black Out nights started in 2019 with a performance on Broadway where the event was pitched as enabling black theatregoers to enjoy events “free from the white gaze”.

The two theatres in Canada are the latest to take up the idea.

Reaction to the Black Out nights has been hostile. Columnist Brian Lilley blasted the move in the Toronto Sun.

“What is bothersome is the apparent segregationist appeal,” he wrote.

“Rather than encouraging black theatregoers, in what is a mostly white but slowly diversifying national capital to attend, the NAC makes it sound like this event is only for black patrons.”

But Shifter, a Canadian magazine celebrating black culture, disagreed.

“Any attempt at carving out a dedicated space for racialised communities is often labelled by some as ‘racist’ and counterproductive to this Utopian kumbaya idea of all people getting along (despite the fact many individuals still don’t like Black people; even among people of colour).”

Racial discrimination has been illegal in Canada for decades. The first legislation was passed in Ontario and Saskatchewan in the 1940s and nationally in 1977, with the Human Rights Act.

'I am Inca blood': Peru protests fire up a divided nation

Mon, January 30, 2023 
By Alexander Villegas and Monica Machicao

LIMA/DESAGUADERO, Peru (Reuters) - In the Peruvian southern border town of Desaguadero, indigenous protester Adela Perez is defiant after almost eight weeks of deadly clashes that have roiled the Andean nation, hit its huge copper mines and strained the country's democratic institutions.

The country of some 34 million people has been in the throes of its worst unrest in decades since the abrupt Dec. 7 ouster and arrest of center-left President Pedro Castillo after he tried to illegally shutter Congress to avoid impeachment.

The son of peasant farmers, Castillo had been a champion of the rural poor and indigenous groups who propelled him to office in 2021, despite falling short on pledges to spread mining wealth and being hit by regular corruption probes.

His dramatic ouster has fired up a deep-seated anger in the rural provinces, especially in the copper-rich south, against the political and wealthy elite in the capital Lima, with protesters taking aim at Congress and new President Dina Boluarte, Castillo's former deputy.

The violence has left 48 people dead with 10 more civilians killed in accidents or other issues related to the blockades.

The protests, which show no sign of abating, threaten to snarl copper supply from the world's No.2 producer of the red metal and destabilize Peru's government with little sign of a political solution to the unrest due to infighting in Congress.

Protesters have pledged to fight on until new elections are held, Boluarte resigns and Congress is shut. Many want a new Constitution to replace a market-focused 1993 text. Nationwide polls show strong support for many of the demands.

"Mrs. Boluarte, you cannot command or militarize this place here," said Perez, near a road blockade at the Peru-Bolivia border that has stymied the flow of trucks for weeks in the region of Puno, one of the regions at the heart of the protests.

"You can't send the military here because the soldiers are our children."

The government has called for a political truce and dialogue, offered its support for new elections to be held soon and blamed "violent groups" for stoking unrest.

Puno, home to the Peruvian side of the iconic Lake Titicaca, was the location of the worst violence in the protests yet, with 18 protesters killed in the city of Juliaca as well as one policeman who was burned to death in his car.

The protests, while focused in the south, have spread across the nation, with hundreds of road blockades using trees, rocks and car tires jamming up transport. Tourism has suffered badly with Machu Picchu closed earlier this month.

It has also sparked a democratic crisis with no clear solution beyond new elections held quickly, which Boluarte has called for but a divided Congress has yet to ratify.

"It doesn't matter if she wants to kill us, to kill us with our children. We are never going to give up until she (Boluarte) resigns," said Carmen Rosa Inofuentes, a protester in Lima, where one person died in clashes in the last week.

"When she resigns, we will leave. If needed, we will sleep in the street; there is no other way. She brought us into this war. We will face the police because we are full of anger, and that anger is exploding and getting out of control."

'WE ARE SUFFERING'

Protesters have marched with banners calling Boluarte a "murderer" and refer to the protesters' deaths as "massacres". Some carry catapults or whips; others hold checkered multicolored Wiphala flags of the indigenous Andean groups.

"I am Inca blood," said Cirilo Yupanqui, wearing a pink gas mask while protesting in capital Lima. He railed against government claims that the protests were being led and riled up by criminal groups.

"I'm not a terrorist, as they say. I'm not a criminal. I have a formal job. Just look at how they treat us."

The protests have raised the specter of violence of years past in Peru, the center of the Incan empire hundreds of years ago, including clashes between rebel Maoist groups and the government in the 1980s and 1990s that saw thousands killed.

"How many people are dying? For the love of God, out Dina, get out of the government. Don't hurt us anymore," said one of the protesters in Lima, who asked not to be named, adding that inflation and economic hardship were sharpening people's anger.

"We are suffering, everything is becoming more expensive, and we don't even have enough to eat."

Peru's inflation ended 2022 at around 8.5% on an annual basis, with analysts saying that many of the protest regions were the hardest hit.

Jackelyn Boncano, a demonstrator in Lima, pleaded for global attention on what was happening.

"I want everyone to be aware of and support this struggle because it is now or never," she said, adding the current government needed to change. "They can't stay in power in Peru."

(Reporting by Alexander Villegas, Marco Aquino and Monica Machicao; Additional reporting by Reuters TV; Writing by Adam Jourdan, editing by Deepa Babington)

Dems urge Biden to halt aid to Peru over protest crackdown







Residents gather round the coffins containing the remains of people who died during protests demanding the resignation of Peruvian President Dina Boluarte, in Juliaca, Peru, Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2023. Fifty-seven people have died amid the unrest, including 45 in direct clashes with the police. One police officer has also been killed. (AP Photo/Jose Sotomayor)

JOSHUA GOODMAN
Mon, January 30, 2023

MIAMI (AP) — A group of House Democrats is urging the Biden administration to suspend all U.S. security assistance to Peru over a “pattern of repression” of antigovernment protests that has resulted in more than 50 civilian deaths.

The letter, sent Monday and a copy of which was shared with The Associated Press, urges the Biden administration to halt all security assistance until it can confirm that the crackdown has ended and the Peruvian officials responsible for human rights abuses are being held accountable.

Peru's foreign minister is in Washington this week seeking international support for President Dina Boluarte's increasingly besieged government. Pressure has been mounting on Boluarte, the vice president under President Pedro Castillo, to resign the post she inherited last month when Castillo was impeached and arrested for his ill-fated attempt to close Peru's Congress.

“Security forces have indiscriminately responded with almost no regard for protestors’ human rights,” according to the letter, which was signed by 20 mostly progressive House Democrats. “Rather than working to deescalate tensions, the Boluarte government has substantially increased tensions — including classifying protesters as ‘terrorists’ and limiting citizens’ right of movement.”


The U.S. provides more than $40 million annually to Peru in security assistance, according to the Washington Office on Latin America. The vast majority is aimed at helping Peru counter drug trafficking.

While initially protesters were demanding Castillo's release from jail, the unrest has spread across the country, galvanizing the support of many poor, indigenous Peruvians who have benefitted little from Peru's mining-driven economic boom.

Protesters demand that both Boluarte and Congress stand down and that new elections be held this year. Lawmakers rejected that Friday, but after another protester died and Boluarte urged them to reconsider, Congress narrowly agreed Monday to debate a proposal to hold elections in October.

Meanwhile, as the protests stretch into their second month, beleaguered security forces have become more forceful.

Among the incidents cited in the letter organized by Rep. Susan Wild of Pennsylvania was the national police raid on student dormitories at San Marcos University in Lima, which included the mass arrest of nearly 200 people. That shocked many Peruvians because campuses have long been off limits to security forces except when crimes are being committed.

The campus invasion drew sharp condemnation from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, which said it collected testimony from civil society groups who said law enforcement officers invaded the bedrooms of student leaders, slung racist remarks at indigenous activists and forced women to strip naked and do squats.

Officials from the United Nations and European Union have strongly condemned what they consider the disproportionate use of force. The Biden administration has been more measured, calling for impartial investigations into abuses while also expressing support for Boluarte's efforts to restore calm and seek a political solution.

Amid the unrest, outgoing U.S. Ambassador Lisa Kenna announced an additional $8 million in U.S. support for coca eradication efforts in the remote Upper Huallaga valley. She has also met with the defense minister and other Cabinet members.

Such actions send an “ambiguous message," according to the letter, which was also signed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington and Rep. Jim McGovern of Massachusetts, a longtime voice for human rights in Latin America.

“The U.S. government can and must do more,” they wrote. “We believe our proposed actions would send a powerful signal in support of fundamental rights and help promote effective engagement for a political resolution.”

A copy of the letter was also sent to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

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Joshua Goodman on Twitter: @APJoshGoodman