UK

Fund Managers in ‘Complete Shock’ After Sunak’s Green Pivot

Gautam Naik and Leonard Kehnscherper
Mon, September 25, 2023 a

Fund Managers in ‘Complete Shock’ After Sunak’s Green Pivot

(Bloomberg) -- Some of the world’s biggest green investors are voicing dismay and bewilderment as they struggle to digest the UK government’s stated intention to wind back key climate commitments.

“It was a complete shock,” said Ian Simm, founder and chief executive of London-based Impax Asset Management Group Plc, a low-carbon fund investor overseeing close to $50 billion in assets. Britain’s official policy now represents “a risk for anyone considering an investment in the UK that’s dependent on government policy,” he said.

The watered-down climate goals announced by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak last week would delay the take-up of electric vehicles and the rollout of clean heat for British homes. It’s the latest in a string of similar policy adjustments that include expanding North Sea oil and gas production.

The upshot is the UK, which just a few years ago declared its goal of being a global leader in all things green, is now actively undermining its chances of hitting net zero emissions by mid-century.

For Impax, the takeaway is there’ll now “be fewer developers of projects in the green space,” which means “less deal flow for us,” Simm said in an interview.

The Details:

• Sunak said in a speech last week that he would push back by five years to 2035 a plan to bar the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, casting the decision as an effort to protect families struggling with bills.

• The vast majority of vehicles sold in the UK would likely be electric by 2030 without government intervention, he said.

• Sunak also announced a 50% increase in funding to install heat pumps in homes and said gas boilers in existing homes will be phased out beginning in 2035. They will only need to be replaced once the boiler breaks, he said.

Sunak himself said it’s “absolutely wrong” to characterize his announcement as a watering down of Britain’s climate goals. He said the changes simply represented a “new approach” intended to help place more emphasis on consumer needs.

The UK has made “rapid progress in decarbonizing its economy,” with emissions down about 46% since 1990 and in line with its carbon budgets to date, said Maggie O’Neal, Barclays Plc global head of ESG research.

“However, the recent announcement by the PM has cast doubt on whether the UK will meet future” carbon budgets and other climate commitments, she said in a note on Monday. O’Neal also pointed to a warning from the Climate Change Committee that Sunak’s plan will “likely take the UK further away from being able to meet its legal commitments.”

Green Bonds

The first big test of investor confidence in the UK since Sunak’s comments comes Tuesday, when the government is due to auction £3 billion ($3.7 billion) in green gilts. The debt, which typically attracts specialist ethical funds, was first issued in 2021 and has already raised more than £30 billion.

“I’m not sure how it will affect the demand dynamics,” said Ulf Erlandsson, chief executive officer of the Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute. But he said some investors who bought into the bond at previous auctions are “unlikely” to come back given the government’s policy shift.

They’ll probably “have doubts if this can be considered a green bond anymore,” he said.

Any hint of investor skepticism toward Tuesday’s auction would mark a meaningful setback for the UK after years spent trying to cement its position as a global hub for green finance. Britain was the first major country to publish a green finance strategy, and the first G20 member to require large firms to disclose climate-related risks. And it has a far higher proportion of companies rated as “ESG leaders” than North America or Asia, according to MSCI Inc. data cited by Kroll, a financial and risk advisory firm.

The UK had put green finance at the heart of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow back in 2021. As chancellor at the time, Sunak laid out plans to make Britain “the world’s first net zero aligned financial center.”

That goal may now be beyond reach, according to Silvia Merler, head of ESG and policy research at Algebris Investments.

Becoming a net zero financial center is “intertwined with and dependent on consistent policy action to drive and support the UK’s real economy transition,” she said. The latest rollback “represents a dilution of climate pledges and may potentially challenge the UK’s ambition to position the City of London as a global green financial center.”

There’s also concern that Sunak’s pivot away from a green agenda may give businesses an excuse to water down their own efforts, creating a chain reaction of climate backtracking across the country.

While some large companies have made climate-related financial disclosures, “others haven’t, and the government must encourage them despite the easing of green measures,” wrote Mark Lumsdon-Taylor, ESG partner at MHA, the UK independent member firm of Baker Tilly International.

Some investors had already conveyed their unease to the government before Sunak made his climate U-turn official. In August, when a policy pivot appeared to be on the cards, financial institutions including Jupiter Asset Management Ltd., Scottish Widows Plc, Aegon, and Royal London Asset Management Ltd. wrote to Sunak, saying the signals coming from No. 10 risked eroding trust and “potentially delaying net zero-related investment.”

Last week, hundreds of organizations, including climate nonprofits and investment managers, sent a letter pressuring the government to stick with existing net zero policies. And they underlined the importance of such a commitment in light of record green stimulus being channeled into the economies of the US and EU.

“We are already losing investment to the US and EU,” the letter said. “Rowing back would make it worse.”

And green investors are continuing to step up the pressure. The Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change is actively seeking more signatures to double down on its demands that Sunak reconsider his stance.

His policy change “erodes the UK’s position as a global leader on climate, undermines our international competitiveness, and increases the risk that we fail to capitalize on one of the greatest economic opportunities of the 21st century,” according to the draft of a letter due to be sent to Sunak on Sept. 27.

--With assistance from Greg Ritchie.

 Bloomberg Businessweek

STALINIST STATE

UN worried about Vietnam arrest of energy expert after Biden's visit

Francesco Guarascio
Mon, September 25, 2023

Turk, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, attends the Human Rights Council at the United Nations in Geneva

HANOI (Reuters) - The U.N. human rights office has expressed concern about the arrest of a Vietnamese green energy expert, who had collaborated with U.N. and U.S. agencies, just days after President Joe Biden signed business and human rights deals with Hanoi on a visit.

Hanoi police on Sept. 15 detained Ngo Thi To Nhien, Executive Director of the Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition (VIET), an independent think tank focused on green energy policy, Reuters reported last week citing a charity and a source.

"We are aware of the arrest and are following the developments with concern," Ravina Shamdasani, a spokesperson for the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) told Reuters in a statement.


Nhien had worked for the World Bank, with the United Nations Development Programme and the United States aid agency (USAID), according to her profile on LinkedIn.

She "has participated in international and national events, including consultations organized by UNDP on the topic of energy transition," the UNDP in Vietnam confirmed in an email message to Reuters.

The US embassy in Hanoi has not responded to repeated requests for comment.

Over the last two years Vietnam has arrested five environmental human rights defenders accusing them of tax evasion, a OHCHR spokesperson said in June, noting the arrests happened while the country was negotiating international funding for energy transition away from coal, of which it is a major user.

Nhien kept a very low public profile and was considered an expert, not an activist.

Vietnam's government has not issued any public statement about Nhien's arrest, and did not reply to requests for comment.

On Friday, Vietnam also executed a man, Le Van Manh, who had been sentenced to death in July 2005 after being found guilty of murder, child rape and robbery.

The European Union had called to halt the execution.

Phil Robertson, Deputy Asia Director at Human Rights Watch, said Manh had a strong alibi which was disregarded.

(Reporting by Francesco Guarascio @fraguarascio; Editing by Michael Perry)

SCI-FI-IMPROPABLE-TEK

Carbon Capture Tech Hype Is Fizzling Out, IEA Says

Angely Mercado
Tue, September 26, 2023 

Wind turbines generate electricity as the Drax Power Station in the background also generates electricity on June 29, 2023 in Selby, England.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released an updated road map this week for reaching zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The new report emphasizes that solutions like carbon capture technology and carbon credits have not lived up to their promise of removing CO2 from our atmosphere, while renewables have made the most progress toward reaching lower emissions targets.

The IEA initially released its first landmark roadmap report back in May 2021 where it outlined that the world needed to end fossil fuel development ASAP. The new IEA report explains that international cooperation and investment in clean energy have shown the most promise for averting the worst of the climate crisis. Emerging tech like hydrogen fuel cells and other emissions-capturing claims previously accounted for an estimated 50% reduction of emissions to reach net zero by 2050 in the 2021 report. Those methods only make up 35% of emissions reduction in this new version of the IEA’s roadmap.

The use of carbon credits and carbon capture were not completely denounced in this week’s roadmap, but the IEA report emphasized that they are tools to use alongside other emissions-lowering solutions. “The credibility of carbon credits has suffered in recent years as a result of market design imperfections and some cases of abuse,” the roadmap explained. “It is essential to ensure that carbon credits are generated from real, verified, additional and permanent emissions reductions or removals.”

The report suggested applying industry guidelines including Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which describes the creation of a global carbon market for transparency and accuracy. It also suggested that corporations receive more guidance on how to formulate their CO2 removal strategies. This is because some companies that have claimed to use carbon offset technologies have used pretty questionable tech in the recent past. Late last year, Drax Group, a UK clean energy company, was selling offset credits based off of U.S.-based power plants that the company hadn’t even built yet.

Hydrogen also played a smaller role in this year’s report as a climate solution. The updated roadmap describes current hydrogen-based technology as another source of unneeded emissions. “Demand for hydrogen is rising, reaching 95 Mt in 2022, but most of it is met by emissions-intensive supply, resulting in more than 0.9 Gt of direct CO2 emissions in 2022,” the report explained.

Relying on hydrogen and carbon capture tech hasn’t really solved much, which means the world should put efforts and financing toward expanding renewables. Clean energy capacity will need to triple worldwide by the end of this decade to avoid further warming, the roadmap says.

This report comes after the northern hemisphere experienced its hottest summer on record, signaling what the future could hold for billions worldwide if we don’t lower emissions by the middle of this century.

Want more climate and environment stories? Check out Earther’s guides to decarbonizing your home, divesting from fossil fuels, packing a disaster go bag, and overcoming climate dread. And don’t miss our coverage of the latest IPCC climate report, the future of carbon dioxide removal, and the un-greenwashed facts on bioplastics and plastic recycling.

Gizmodo

Exclusive-Vietnam's Bamboo Airways struggling to pay pilot wages; some depart - sources

Francesco Guarascio and Khanh Vu
Tue, September 26, 2023 

An Airbus A321 aircraft of Bamboo Airways taxis at Noi Bai airport in Hanoi

HANOI (Reuters) - Some pilots have left Vietnam's restructuring Bamboo Airways in the last two months after late payments in salaries, according to two people familiar with the matter.

About 30 foreign pilots departed during that time, more than 10% of the airline's total pilot staff in June, according to one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information was not public.

A second person said some pilots had recently quit and others were dismissed.

Embattled Bamboo, Vietnam's No. 3 airline, said in a statement to Reuters that it has undertaken drastic restructuring and those efforts encompass its route network, fleet and human resources.


"Bamboo Airways has reduced a number of pilot personnel recently to serve this goal," the statement said, denying that late payments of salaries were the reason behind the departures.

It did not respond to questions about how many pilots have left.

Many staff at Bamboo have sometimes had to face delays in salary payments but this had not, until recently, affected foreign pilots who make up a large majority of the airline's pilot staff, the sources said.

Messages seen by Reuters from an internal company chat forum that management uses to communicate with foreign pilots show some salary payments have been late.

An Aug. 21 message from a company representative in the forum told foreign pilots they would have received on that day 35% of their monthly salary that had been due a week earlier, and they would be informed about the remainder when there was more information.

A similar message was sent a month earlier.

The amounts were later paid in full but foreign pilots had not received their pay for August that had been due on Sept. 15, according to information from one of the people that was current as of Sept. 25.

Bamboo also said in statements to Reuters that it is operating stably and is planning to raise capital from strategic shareholders. It said one of its major financial backers, Vietnam's Sacombank, had expressed confidence in its long-term prospects and the desire to increase its investment in the airline.

Sacombank has not provided comment.

Bamboo's new chief executive, Nguyen Ngoc Trong, said in a letter to staff last month, which was seen by Reuters, that the airline was facing "tough times" but added the government was committed to supporting the company.

Vietnam's Government Office did not reply to a request for comment.

Trong was appointed CEO in July when his predecessor resigned after less than two months on the job.

Bamboo had flagged in 2021 plans to list in the United States but has been struggling with rapid management changes and aggressive restructuring since a former chairman was arrested in March 2022 over allegations of stock market manipulation.

It was not immediately clear which companies have the biggest stakes in Bamboo. A spokesperson for Bamboo said details about its ownership would be disclosed at a later date.

Bamboo, which flies both internationally and domestically, has around 17% of Vietnam's market share, its then CEO told local media in March.

It booked losses of 17.6 trillion dong ($722 million) last year, the government has said.

Bamboo's flights continue to regularly depart, schedules at the country's two main airports show. Seven of its 30 planes, including some of those recently acquired, are currently parked for maintenance, according to tracking website Planespotters.net.

(Reporting by Francesco Guarascio @fraguarascio and Khanh Vu; Additional reporting by Phuong Nguyen, Mai Nguyen and Jamie Freed; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

Las Vegas hospitality workers could be the latest major labor union to go on strike

RIO YAMAT
Updated Tue, September 26, 2023

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Las Vegas hospitality workers may be the latest major labor union in the U.S. to go on strike after tens of thousands of members voted Tuesday on whether to authorize a walkout that could impact some of the city's most iconic casinos and hotels.

The Culinary Workers Union, a political powerhouse in Nevada, hasn’t gone on strike in more than three decades. Results of the vote are expected to be released Tuesday night.

The union said it has not yet set a deadline for a strike as it continues bargaining for better pay and benefits and improved working conditions with the top employers on the Las Vegas Strip, including MGM Resorts International, Caesars Entertainment and Wynn Resorts.

A walkout could disrupt operations at more than three dozen resorts on the Strip and in downtown, the city’s economic backbone.

“We are the glue that keeps these hotels together, and we should be paid what we deserve,” Deanna Virgil, a longtime employee at Wynn Las Vegas, told The Associated Press after casting her vote Tuesday morning.

Virgil was among 53,000 housekeepers, cocktail and food servers, porters, cooks, bartenders and other hotel employees in Las Vegas eligible to take part in the vote, which comes amid increased labor organizing across multiple industries — from strikes to work stoppages. Tuesday’s vote took place on the same day President Joe Biden joined United Auto Workers strikers on a picket line in Michigan.

MGM Resorts said it would comment on the union’s vote later Tuesday after the outcome is announced. Caesars did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment, and Wynn Resorts said they had no comment.

Virgil, who has worked in the hospitality sector for 38 years, said she is able to make do with her current salary and benefits because she lives with her adult daughter.

“There’s no telling where I would be if I didn’t have the support of my daughter,” Virgil said. “There are a lot of us who have two jobs, but one job should be enough.”

Bethany Khan, the union’s spokesperson, said all members receive health insurance and currently earn about $26 hourly, including benefits. Khan declined to say how much the union is seeking in pay raises because “we do not negotiate in public,” although the union has said it is asking for “the largest wage increases ever negotiated” in the union's history.



The union is scheduled to return to the bargaining table next week with MGM Resorts, Caesars and Wynn Resorts.

Across the country, it’s been a big year for labor unions — from walkouts in Hollywood and on auto production lines in 20 states, to UPS reaching a new deal before a work stoppage that could have significantly disrupted the nation’s supply chain. Workers calling for higher wages, better conditions and job security, especially since the end of the pandemic, have been increasingly willing to walk out on the job as employers face a greater need for workers.

In Nevada, the Culinary Union is the largest labor union, representing about 60,000 hospitality workers. Contracts covering 40,000 of those members in Las Vegas recently expired.

The strike vote was held among workers solely in Las Vegas, and includes employees at properties like the Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, Wynn Las Vegas, MGM Grand, Caesars Palace, Harrah's, Circus Circus, Treasure Island and the Strat.

In 1991, more than 500 workers went on strike at the now-shuttered Frontier hotel and casino in downtown Las Vegas. It became one of the longest strikes in U.S. history, stretching more than six years. The union said all the strikers returned to their jobs afterward, with back pay and benefits.

The union last voted to authorize a strike in 2018. Five-year contracts were reached soon after a majority of the participating 25,000 hospitality workers cast votes to walk off the job. Rory Kuykendall, 40, said he is hopeful that Tuesday's vote will have the same effect.

“It’s great to see all the huge numbers in turnout,” said Kuykendall, a bellperson at Flamingo Las Vegas. “It’s a chance for all the members to come out and show that we’re really ready to fight.”

Last summer, the casino workers’ union in Atlantic City negotiated landmark contracts that gave workers the biggest raises they’ve ever had. It also removed any chance of a strike for several years, an important consideration for Atlantic City’s casino industry as it tries to return to pre-pandemic business levels.

In past contracts, the Atlantic City union had concentrated on preserving health care and pension benefits, but this time sought “significant” pay raises for workers to help them keep pace with spiraling prices for gasoline, food, rent and other living expenses, the union said.

Strike Vote Nevada Culinary Union members rally ahead of a strike vote Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2023, at Thomas & Mack Center on the UNLV campus in Las Vegas. Tens of thousands of hospitality workers who keep the iconic casinos and hotels of Las Vegas humming were set to vote Tuesday on whether to authorize a strike amid ongoing contract negotiations. (K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal via AP)

India's Moon Lander Appears to Have Died

Victor Tangermann
Tue, September 26, 2023 


Last month, India became only the fourth country in the world to pull off a soft landing on the lunar surface.

Afterward, the country's Vikram lander flexed its muscles by releasing a rover and even firing up its thrusters to float 15 inches above the surface before softly landing once again.

A couple of days later, the team at the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) put Vikram and its accompanying Pragyaan rover into sleep mode to wait out the next lunar sunrise on September 22.

Unfortunately, the pair have yet to "re-awaken" from their prolonged night-time nap days later — and, as The Guardian reports, ISRO scientists haven't been able to make contact, saying that "hopes are dimming" of Vikram and Pragyaan ever waking back up.

It's an unfortunate development, highlighting the extreme conditions of the lunar surface, particularly in the long absence of the Sun's warming rays.

Lunar Ambassador

But scientists are far from definitively calling it.

"Efforts to establish communication with the Vikram lander and Pragyaan rover will continue," the ISRO tweeted.

According to the team, mission control will try to reestablish communications until the next sunset on September 30.

"Unless the transmitter on the lander comes on, we have no connectivity," ISRO chief AS Kiran Kumar told the BBC on Monday. "It has to tell us that it's alive. Even if all other sub-systems work, we have no way of knowing that."

Surviving the bitter cold may be difficult, but there have been recent instances of lunar rovers surviving a harsh night. China's Chang'e-4 and Yutu-2 rovers, for instance, have successfully woken up from their slumber on more than one occasion.

However, even if Vikram never wakes up again, India can count its Chandrayaan-3 mission as a groundbreaking success, with the lander serving "as India's lunar ambassador" on the Moon, per the ISRO.

More on the lander: India's Moon Lander Just Took Off Again and Landed in a Different Place

IEA says route to net zero requires more cash and less politics

Forrest Crellin
Updated Tue, September 26, 2023

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, in Brussels

PARIS (Reuters) - Record growth in clean energy technology, including solar panels and electric vehicles, means it is still possible to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

But it also said the world would need need to invest nearly $4.5 trillion per year in the transition to cleaner energy from the start of the next decade, up from spending of $1.8 trillion expected in 2023.

Temperatures have hit record levels this year and global averages are around 1.1C higher compared with the pre-industrial average.

That compares with the goal set by the 2015 U.N. Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rises well below 2C, while pursuing efforts to limit them to 1.5C to prevent the most severe consequences, such as drought, floods and increased wildfires.

In its update to its Net Zero Roadmap, which proposes scenarios to reach net zero emissions by the middle of the century, the IEA said an increase in solar power capacity and in electric vehicle (EV) sales since 2021 were in line with targets, as well as infrastructure plans in both fields.

Much more effort, however, is still required as a tripling of global renewable capacity, a doubling of energy efficient infrastructure, an increase in heat pump sales and a further rise in EV use are needed by 2030, the IEA said.

It also called for a 75% cut in energy sector methane emissions by 2030, which would cost an estimated $75 billion, just 2% of net income received by the oil and gas industry in 2022.

The IEA pathway to net zero will also require an equitable transition, taking into account national circumstances and requiring advanced economies to reach net zero sooner than developing economies, the report said.

Despite this year's extreme weather, politicians, mindful of the cost-of-living crisis and seeking re-election. have been backsliding on climate pledges.

"Governments need to separate climate from geopolitics, given the scale of the challenge at hand," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

(This story has been refiled to correct a typographical error in paragraph 10)

(Reporting by Forrest Crellin; editing by Barbara Lewis)

Global use of oil could peak this decade: IEA

Nick Robertson

THE HILL
Tue, September 26, 2023 



Greenhouse gas emissions and the global demand for fossil fuels could peak this decade, according to an updated analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that emphasized more must be done to prevent devastating climate change.

The agency said that the case for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is “stronger than ever,” citing a rapidly growing green energy industry and electric vehicle sales.

The new projections are an update to the agency’s 2021 plan to get to net zero global greenhouse emissions by 2050.

“The speed of the roll-out of key clean energy technologies means that the IEA now projects that demand for coal, oil and natural gas will all peak this decade even without any new climate policies,” according to the report. “This is encouraging, but not nearly enough for the 1.5 degree Celsius goal.”

Much of that expansion was prodded on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the report, which forced European countries to move rapidly away from natural gas and to alternative energy sources.

The IEA projects global renewable energy capacity will nearly triple to 11,000 gigawatts by 2030 and methane emissions will fall to a quarter of current levels in the same period — to about 30 megatons per year.

The new plan also relies less on technologies that have not yet been developed. While about half of the reductions in the 2021 report necessitated future tech, the 2023 update reduces that to about 35 percent.

The technologies that have shown the most promise in the last two years have been new battery processes and the hydrogen electrolysis method of removing carbon dioxide from the air, according to the report.

If the world continues and doubles down on investing in green energy sources, as well as ceases new construction of fossil fuel sources, net zero is still possible by 2050, the IEA said, but a lack of international cooperation makes that difficult.

“By 2035, emissions need to decline by 80 percent in advanced economies and 60 percent in emerging market and developing economies compared to the 2022 level,” according to the report. “As part of an equitable pathway to the global goal of net zero emissions by 2050, almost all countries need to bring forward their targeted net zero dates.”

And as time goes on, the need for action becomes more apparent, the agency said.

“The energy sector is changing faster than many people think, but much more needs to be done and time is short. Momentum is coming not just from the push to meet climate targets but also from the increasingly strong economic case for clean energy, energy security imperatives, and the jobs and industrial opportunities that accompany the new energy economy,” the report concludes. “Yet, momentum must be accelerated to be in line with the 1.5°C goal and to ensure that the process of change works for everyone.”

EV sales growth points to oil demand peaking by 2030 − so why is the oil industry doubling down on production?

Robert Brecha, Professor of Sustainability, University of Dayton
Tue, September 26, 2023 

THE CONVERSATION

Tesla brought EVs into the mainstream. Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images

Electric vehicle sales are growing faster than expected around the world, and sales of gas- and diesel-powered vehicles have been falling. Yet, the U.S. government still forecasts an increasing demand for oil, and the oil industry is doubling down on production plans.

Why is that, and what happens if the U.S. projections for growing oil demand are wrong?

I study sustainability and global energy system transformations. Let’s take a closer look at the changes underway.

EVs’ giant leap forward

On Sept. 12, 2023, Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental organization that advises the world’s major economies, drew global attention when he wrote in the Financial Times that the IEA is now projecting a global peak in demand for oil, gas and coal by 2030.

The new date was a significant leap forward in time compared with previous estimates that the peak would not be until the 2030s for oil and even later for gas. It also stood out because the IEA has typically been quite conservative in modeling changes to the global energy system.

Birol pointed to changes in energy policies and a faster-than-expected rise in clean technologies – including electric vehicles – along with Europe’s shift away from fossil fuels amid Russia’s war in Ukraine as the primary reasons. He wrote that the IEA’s upcoming World Energy Outlook “shows the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point.”

EV sales have been growing quickly, particularly in China. China’s BYD produces several of the top-selling models globally. VCG/VCG via Getty Images

The United Nations also released its “global stocktake” report in early September, assessing the world’s progress toward meeting the Paris climate agreement goals of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with preindustrial temperatures. The report found serious gaps in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by soon after mid-century. However, it noted two bright spots: The world is more or less on track in the growth in solar photovoltaics for renewable energy – and in the growth of electric vehicles.

The dynamics of EV expansion are important because each vehicle that uses electricity instead of gasoline or diesel fuel will depress demand for oil. Even though demand for petroleum products in other sectors, like aviation and petrochemicals, is still increasing, the IEA expects a decline in road transportation’s 50% share of oil consumption to drive an overall peak in demand within a few years.

EVs are now on pace to dominate global car sales by 2030, with fast growth in China in particular, according to analysts at the Rocky Mountain Institute. If countries continue to upgrade their electricity and charging infrastructure, “the endgame for one quarter of global oil demand will be in sight,” they wrote in a new report. As electric trucks become more common, oil demand will likely drop even faster, the analysts wrote.

Global sales of light-duty vehicles already show a decrease in internal combustion – gasoline and diesel – vehicle sales, mainly due to increasing EV sales, but also due to an overall decline in vehicle sales that started even before the pandemic.
So, why is the US projecting oil demand growth?

Based on the data, it appears that global oil demand will peak relatively soon. Yet, major oil companies say they plan to increase their production, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration still projects that global demand for oil and fossil fuels will continue to grow.

Vehicles do last longer today than they did a couple of decades ago, and they are also larger, slowing down efficiency gains. But the Energy Information Administration appears to be lowballing projections for EV growth.

The Biden administration, which pushed through large U.S. tax incentives for EV purchases, has taken steps to clear the way for increasing some oil and natural gas exploration. And large government subsidies continue flowing to fossil fuel industries in many countries. These contradictions undermine the goals of the Paris Agreement and could lead to costly stranded assets.

What do these trends mean for the oil industry?

It’s fair to assume that large industries should have a good handle on future developments expected to affect their fields. But they often have a competing priority to ensure that short-term gains are preserved.

Electric utilities are an example. Most didn’t feel threatened by renewable electricity until penetration expanded quickly in their territories. In response, some have lobbied to hold off further progress and invented spurious reasons to favor fossil fuels over renewables.

Of course, some companies have changed their business models to embrace the renewable energy transition, but these seem to still be in a minority.

Large corporations such as BP and TotalEnergies invest in renewables, but these investments are often offset by equally large investments in new fossil fuel exploration.

Both Shell and BP recently backpedaled on their previous climate commitments in spite of tacit admissions that increasing oil production is inconsistent with climate change mitigation. Exxon’s CEO said in June 2023 that his company aimed to double its U.S. shale oil production over the next five years.

In 2020, then-BP CEO Bernard Looney declared that the oil company would achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. In 2023, after record profits, BP announced it would increase fossil fuel production investment by about billion a year for the rest of the decade. Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty Images

What is happening in the fossil fuel industry seems to be an example of the so-called “green paradox,” in which it is rational, from a profit-maximization point of view, to extract these resources as quickly as possible when faced with the threat of future decreased market value.

That is, if a company can see that in the future its product will make less money or be threatened by environmental policies, it would be likely to sell as much as possible now. As part of that process, it may be very willing to encourage the building of fossil fuel infrastructure that clearly won’t be viable a decade or two in the future, creating what are known as stranded assets.

In the long run, countries encouraged to borrow to make these investments may be stuck with the bill, in addition to the global climate change impacts that will result.

Extractive industries have known about climate change for decades. But rather than transform themselves into broad-based energy companies, most have doubled down on oil, coal and natural gas. More than two dozen U.S. cities, counties and states are now suing fossil fuel companies over the harms caused by climate change and accusing them of misleading the public, with California filing the latest lawsuit on Sept. 15, 2023.

The question is whether these companies will be able to successfully adapt to a renewable energy world, or whether they will follow the path of U.S. coal companies and not recognize their own decline until it is too late.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. Like this article? 

It was written by: Robert Brecha, University of Dayton.

Read more:

Boosting EV market share to 67% of US car sales is a huge leap – but automakers can meet EPA’s tough new standards

Climate change is an infrastructure problem – map of electric vehicle chargers shows one reason why

Right-to-charge laws bring the promise of EVs to apartments, condos and rentals

Robert Brecha is also affiliated with Climate Analytics, a global non-profit climate science and policy institute. Opinions and ideas expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the University of Dayton or Climate Analytics.
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Is the Hollywood writers’ strike over? The provisional deal explained

A tentative agreement has been announced but what does it mean for the industry and the viewers?

Adrian Horton

THE GUARDIAN

Mon 25 Sep 2023 

After nearly five months – 146 days, to be exact – the Hollywood writers’ strike appears to be nearing its end, as the Writers Guild of America (WGA) reached a provisional deal with the group representing the studios and streamers. If ratified by union membership, the deal would conclude one of the longest work stoppages in the union’s history; the current record was set in 1988, when the WGA struck for 154 days.


Hollywood writers’ strike: WGA reaches ‘tentative’ deal to end 146-day strike

The tentative agreement was announced on Sunday night after a marathon weekend of negotiations. “We can say, with great pride, that this deal is exceptional – with meaningful gains and protections for writers in every sector of the membership,” the WGA said in an email to strike captains on Sunday night.

While there is still much that is unclear – the nature of the deal, which still needs to be ironed out in contractual language and ratified by union leadership and its 11,500 members, has yet to be revealed – the picture of a post-strike Hollywood is coming into focus. Here is what we know so far:
What’s in the deal?

US screenwriter Travis Adam Wright walks with a homemade sign in front of Netflix.

 Photograph: David Swanson/EPA

The provisional, three-year contract between the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) and the WGA will address the main three issues undergirding the strike: protections against the encroachment of artificial intelligence on writers’ work, residual payments for shows on streaming platforms and staffing minimums for writers’ rooms on TV shows.

Concerns around the future of AI emerged as arguably the leading issue and, for many, the most charged; Hollywood’s push into AI is already under way and the dual strike with the actors’ union offered one of the first and strongest labor opportunities to shape the path ahead for technology that will undoubtedly shape many employment sectors. The WGA was particularly concerned about the possibility that streamers and studios could use generative AI – the type of machine-learning systems capable of creating text, images and video, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT – to cut costs by foregoing human writers for AI-produced scripts.

The details on the AI concessions are still scarce, but the Hollywood Reporter noted that negotiations over AI regulations were the final sticking point heading into the weekend. According to the New York Times, the AMPTP proposed this weekend to add a few paragraphs to the contract about AI and old scripts owned by studios. The two sides negotiated the language for several hours on the final night of talks.

The new agreement also reportedly includes a plan for residual compensations tied to streaming show performance that is not tied to health and pension funds. Residuals for shows that succeed on streaming platforms – such as this summer’s hit Suits, a 2010s legal drama that broke streaming records on Netflix – have lagged far behind those of shows on linear networks.


‘Embrace it or risk obsolescence’: how will AI jobs affect Hollywood?

Another sticking point was the WGA’s proposal for TV staffing minimums – six to 12 writers a show, depending on the number of episodes per season —– which the AMPTP had refused to consider and some within the guild privately opposed. In the final weeks of negotiations, the studios reportedly budged by offering showrunners flexibility to hire a certain number of writers based on the budget of the show. It remains unclear the precise compromise reached by the two sides on staffing minimums and the regulation of “mini-rooms”, seen by many as a way to avoid the cost of a full writers’ room.

What’s next?

John Oliver’s HBO show could resume production within weeks. 

Photograph: Rich Fury/Getty Images

It’s still possible that the strike could go on; the deal must now be ratified by the guild’s several leadership boards (including the union membership committee, WGA West’s board and WGA East’s council), which are set for a vote on Tuesday. After that, members will receive a summary of the agreement for a ratification vote.

In the meantime, the WGA has suspended picketing, though it reminded members that no one is to return to work until given the green light and the lawyerly contract is formalized. “What remains now is for our staff to make sure everything we have agreed to is codified in final contract language,” WGA reps said in the email to strike captains on Sunday night. “And though we are eager to share the details of what has been achieved with you, we cannot do that until the last ‘i’ is dotted.”

Writers could return to work quickly if union leadership approves the deal, as they can also vote to end the strike while the rank-and-file vote is still underway. “This would allow writers to return to work during the ratification vote, but would not affect the membership’s right to make a final determination on contract approval,” WGA leaders said.

However, most TV and film production will be unable to resume, as the actors’ strike is still under way and the joint strikes have already altered the production and release schedule for months to come. With performers still out, there will probably be long delays between script and screen and months before Hollywood work returns to pre-strike levels. Studios have pushed the release of major titles, such as Dune: Part Two and Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers, until 2024. Some TV shows, such as Amazon Prime’s A League of Their Own and The Peripheral, went from indefinitely delayed to cancelled, and the production on many others has been delayed.

Without such popular shows as Abbott Elementary and Young Sheldon, which shuttered their writers’ rooms for the strike in May, the major networks have already filled their fall TV schedules with reality programming and reruns. Fox developed a new game show called Snake Oil, while ABC expanded its Bachelor franchise with The Golden Bachelor, premiering this week. CBS is airing old episodes of Yellowstone in prime time and ABC began simulcasting ESPN broadcasts of Monday Night Football.

Some scripted network shows filmed before the strike, such as Quantum Leap and Magnum PI, will return with new seasons this fall; others, such as Grey’s Anatomy, Abbott Elementary and Law and Order, will not. With the WGA expected to ratify the deal, at least some of the 2023-2024 broadcast season could be saved, with production resuming for some shows as early as Thanksgiving.

Late-night and daytime television – the first casualties of the work stoppage in May – could get back on the air quickly. And Deadline reported on Monday that Saturday Night Live, which usually begins at the end of September, will get most of its season; the show is expected to return on 7 or 14 October, pending the WGA vote, with non-actor hosts and potentially without some cast members in solidarity with the actors.

Will this affect the actors’ strike?

Sag-Aftra members and supporters walk the picket line in New York in July.

 Photograph: Angela Weiss/AFP/Getty Images

Not directly – the Screen Actors Guild (Sag-Aftra), the union that represents more than 160,000 performers, has stressed that it will not be governed by other unions’ contract deals (as did the WGA, which was on strike after the directors’ guild reached a non-strike agreement with the AMPTP). The actors have been on a separate strike since 14 July, though many of its demands overlap with writers and many A-listers have picketed jointly with them.

Still, a deal with the WGA could provide a blueprint for resolving the actors’ strike, which has taken a mounting toll on performers and below-the-line staff. The tentative writers’ agreement addresses similar concerns to actors, namely strong guardrails against the encroachment of AI – actors are worried about the rights to their digital likenesses, for example – and streaming residuals.

While championing its own deal, the WGA has encouraged members to continue supporting actors on their picket lines when they resume on Tuesday.

‘We did it’: Hollywood writers react to ‘tentative agreement’ to end strike

Ellie Iorizzo

EVENING STANDARD
Mon, September 25, 2023 



Writers in the US are praising a “tentative” deal that has been reached with Hollywood studio bosses which could mark the end of a strike that has lasted many months.

The Writers Guild of America (WGA) announced the deal with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), the group which represents studios, streaming services and producers in negotiations, after 146 days on the picket line.

More than 11,000 WGA members have been on strike since May 2 over issues including pay and the threat of artificial intelligence (AI), however the terms of the new contract must be approved by the guild’s board and members before the strike officially ends.

On Monday, US comedian, writer and TV presenter Adam Conover, who wrote and starred in The G Word on Netflix, tweeted: “We did it. We have a tentative deal.


“Over the coming days, we’ll discuss and vote on it, together, as a democratic union. But today, I want to thank every single WGA member, and every fellow worker who stood with us in solidarity. You made this possible.”


US comedian, writer and chat show host Larry Wilmore reacted to the news on Twitter writing: “Finally!!!”

Alex Zaragoza, a writer on Amazon Freevee series Primo, said she reacted to the news by “crying, screaming, throwing up, (and) crying again”.

She tweeted: “This strike has been so hard. Necessary and invigorating, and really f****** hard. But we did it! We fought together.

“Thank you thank you thank you to all of our strike captains who have held us down at every picket these last 146 days. Kept us hydrated, informed, sunblocked, safe from cars, and feeling encouraged. Love y’all!!”

Writer Caroline Renard of Disney’s Secrets Of Sulphur Springs, was also among those celebrating the agreement news.

She tweeted: “We got a deal. That was the hardest I’ve worked in forever. Captain signing off!”

Announcing the deal, days before the strike was set to become the longest in the union’s history, the WGA said: “What we have won in this contract – most particularly, everything we have gained since May 2 – is due to the willingness of this membership to exercise its power, to demonstrate its solidarity, to walk side-by-side, to endure the pain and uncertainty of the past 146 days.

“It is the leverage generated by your strike, in concert with the extraordinary support of our union siblings, that finally brought the companies back to the table to make a deal.”

As a result of the agreement, shows such as The Drew Barrymore Show could return to the air within days.

However, talks have not yet resumed between studios and striking actors who are part of Sag-Aftra (the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists).

The union, which represents around 160,000 members of the industry, has been on strike since July 14, causing a major stalling of multiple Hollywood productions.

It tweeted: “To our fellow union siblings who serve on the WGA Negotiating Committee, we extend our heartfelt congratulations on securing a tentative agreement with the AMPTP.

“We applaud your dedication and unwavering solidarity over the last five months and are proud to stand shoulder to shoulder with you as creative partners in the entertainment industry.”

Tentative WGA Deal Grants Members Who Are About To Lose Health Coverage An Extension Through End Of 2023

David Robb
Mon, September 25, 2023 



WGA members who will lose their health coverage on October 1 will be granted extended coverage through the end of the year, per the guild’s tentative agreement. The extension also applies to writers who will exhaust their COBRA benefits eligibility. WGA members will soon be voting to ratify the new deal.

Union health plans have been taking a beating since the Writers Guild went on strike on May 2, followed by SAG-AFTRA on July 14, due to a lack of employer contributions. The Motion Picture Industry Pension & Health Plans (MPIPHP), which is covering IATSE’s West Coast locals, Teamsters Local 399 and several other industry unions, is reportedly down $150 million in employer contributions during the strikes.

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Several other health plans, including those covering members of the DGA, SAG-AFTRA and IATSE, have made it easier to obtain health coverage during the strikes.

Last month, trustees of the SAG-AFTRA Health Plan unanimously agreed to a one-calendar-quarter extension of health coverage for certain qualified participants who would otherwise lose coverage on Oct. 1.

And trustees of the DGA Pension & Health Plans approved a free major medical plan last month for participants who lose coverage because of the strikes. The MPIPHP has also eased requirements that their members need to qualify for health coverage in order to help participants and dependents affected by the strikes.

Hollywood's writers strike is on the verge of ending. What happens next?

Will Gendron,AP
Mon, September 25, 2023 

CHRIS DELMAS/Getty Images

In what lasted for almost five months, the writer's strike has seemingly reached an end.

On Sunday evening, the Writer's Guild of America came to a tentative agreement with Hollywood studios.

Here's how this impacts the entertainment landscape moving forward.

The Writers Guild of America has arrived at a "tentative agreement" with Hollywood studios, after striking for 146 days.

Following a marathon five-day bargaining session, both the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers and the WGA released a joint statement Sunday evening, signalling a return to regularly scheduled programming is on the horizon.

Meanwhile, Hollywood's actors remain on strike — SAG-AFTRA, the actor's union, offered its congratulations to WGA — and there are still formalities needed to complete before the strike officially ends, with the WGA emailing its members that "no one is to return to work until specifically authorized to by the Guild."

"We are still on strike until then. But we are, as of today, suspending WGA picketing," it added.

So how will things proceed?

Two successful votes must happen before the strike is over

First, boards of the WGA's eastern and western branches must approve the deal. Then the 11,500 members themselves must vote for approval. Such votes are actually common with Hollywood unions, taking place every time a new three-year contract is negotiated, though they don't normally come at the end of a prolonged strike.

In the last writers strike, in 2008, board members voted two days after a deal was reached, and members voted two days after that. The agreement was approved overwhelmingly, with over 90% of writers voting yes.

That doesn't necessarily mean the vote is a sure thing. Some members are bound to be unsatisfied with the compromises their leaders reached on issues including compensation, the size of writing staffs, and the use of artificial intelligence in scriptwriting, especially after spending nearly five months out of work on picket lines.
When will writers return to work and shows return?

Once the contract is approved, work will resume more quickly for some writers than others. Late-night talk shows were the first to be affected when the strike began, and may be among the first to return to air now. NBC's "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon," ABC's "Jimmy Kimmel Live" and CBS's "The Late Show With Stephen Colbert" could come back within days.

But while the show's joke writers will be free to return, many of their usual guests will not, with the ongoing actors strike bringing limits on such appearances. And the shows' returns amid that second strike could prove controversial, as it did for the planned-then-axed resumptions of daytime shows including "The Drew Barrymore Show" and "The Talk."

Film writers will also get back to work on their slower timeline, though those working on scripts or late revisions for already scheduled movies — including "Deadpool 3" and "Superman: Legacy" — will certainly be hustling to crack open their laptops and avoid further release-date delays.
How long will the actors strike last?

The studios that make up the AMPTP opted to finish a deal with writers — who went on strike two months earlier — before even beginning to deal with actors.

Leaders of SAG-AFTRA have said they have received no overtures from the AMPTP since their strike began on July 14. That is likely to change now, and another round of negotiations is likely to begin, though it remains to be seen how long that may take. It was three months into the writers strike before the AMPTP reached out to begin negotiations, and the initial talks sputtered after a just a few days. A month later, the studios came calling again, and this time the deal was done less than a week l

Dispatches From The Picket Lines: Actors With A Smattering Of Rain & Writers Walk In NYC For First Time Since WGA Deal
Sean Piccoli
Tue, September 26, 2023 


This is Day 76 of the SAG-AFTRA strike.

A fourth straight day of rain in New York City — the remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia — greeted striking film and television workers who were back on picket lines this week for the first time since the announcement of a deal between the Writers Guild and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers.

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Although WGA pickets are suspended, a smattering of Guild members and their union representatives turned up on Tuesday to bolster rain-soaked SAG-AFTRA picket lines at the four locations in Manhattan where AMPTP studios are headquartered.

“SAG was there for WGA from Day 1, and they came out in such encouraging numbers when they really didn’t have to,” Eric Glover, a writer for the CW’s Tom Swift, told Deadline at the end of a soggy 2½-hour march outside Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery offices. “I can’t technically be here in my WGA shirt, but I just wanted to be a warm body to provide support.”

Turnout overall was comparatively light on the day after Yom Kippur and a weekend of developments signaling a possible end to a writers walkout, now in its 22nd week. But SAG-AFTRA tents were up at all four sites — Netflix/WBD, NBCUniversal, Paramount and Amazon/HBO — with union representatives handing out ponchos, snacks and picket signs.

Marchers chanted, “Rain or shine/We walk the line/We won’t go home until the contract’s signed.”

SAG-AFTRA members — on strike since July in the first combined walkout of both actors and writers since 1960 — said that they were heartened by developments with the WGA but staying in strike mode even as pressure on their personal finances hasn’t let up.

“I am OK,” actor, playwright and model Jason Duval Hunter told Deadline as he marched outside Paramount offices with about two dozen other picketers. “But I’m at the end of my savings, tapped out on my credit, and all of that good stuff. I’m in good spirits. I’m optimistic — good thing I have my hand in a lot of different avenues in this industry. I’ve been doing this since the ’80s.”

Hunter said that he was just in an off-Broadway play that paid “a little money” and that he walked the runway for Fashion Week in New York earlier this month.

Lila Donnolo — an actor, writer, podcaster and intimacy coach who is also doing copywriting to help pay bills — told Deadline after the Netflix/WBD rally, “I’m hopeful but pragmatic.”

Donnolo described artificial intelligence as a kind of wild card in contract talks once they resume between SAG-AFTRA and the AMPTP.

“How can we prevent future things that we don’t know about that would be awful for us as performers from happening?” Donnolo said, alluding to fears that generative AI could replicate and replace on-screen actors. “I think that takes a lot of more time and a lot more thought, which means more time for negotiation, which means dragging the strike on longer.

“It’s not simply wages,” Donnolo said. “There’s almost an existential fight that we’re fighting that is far greater.”

Hunter made a similar point, saying that AI and streaming technologies represent a “new era.”

“We needed to do this strike so that we can have an understanding: How do we make a living?” Hunter said.

At NBCUniversal, children’s television actor and writer Stephanie D’Abruzzo was not on strike because she works in programming that is covered under different contracts. But D’Abruzzo told Deadline that the WGA has set an example, and a tone, for the other contract negotiations — hers included — coming down the pipeline in film, television and video gaming.

“Their determination … has inspired SAG-AFTRA, a union that has had its share of division in the past, to truly come together and be united,” D’Abruzzo said.

“Obviously we don’t know what all of the details are with the WGA tentative contract, and with any situation you know that someone is going to be disappointed,” D’Abruzzo said. But she took it as a good sign that the WGA is calling the new deal “exceptional” in its official statement — in contrast with the more downbeat language that the union employed after the last writers’ strike in 2008.

This time around, she said, “The fact that the Writers Guild led the way, held strong, stayed united … is going to mean everything for the future.”

Robert Keniston, a Los Angeles-based actor originally from New York, marched outside Amazon offices with a dozen other picketers including his father.

“I’m out here on vacation so I’m taking some time to show solidarity,” Keniston told Deadline. He said that news of a potential end to the writers strike brought him “a healthy dose of optimism that we’ll get the contract we need.”

“I’ve been one of the lucky ones,” Keniston said. “I have a day job that’s not related so I’ve been able to make ends meet. But I definitely have friends who are struggling and have to rely on the SAG-AFTRA Foundation grant or the Entertainment [Community Fund] grant.”

Ashley Zukerman, who had a recurring role on all four seasons of HBO’s Succession, told Deadline after the Netflix/WBD rally, “We’ve just got to stay strong.”

“This has been very confusing and very cruel so it just doesn’t make any sense at all,” Zukerman said. “But we’re hopeful AMPTP comes clean.”



The Writers Guild of America has reached a tentative agreement with Hollywood studios after nearly 150 days of striking. The deal still has to be approved by union members.

Hollywood writers guild ends strike ahead of final contract vote

Lisa Richwine and Dawn Chmielewski
Updated Tue, September 26, 2023 

The iconic Hollywood sign is pictured the day after the Writers Guild of America (WGA) announced it reached a preliminary labor agreement with major studios in Los Angeles

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -Hollywood's writers union said its members could return to work on Wednesday while they decide whether to approve a three-year deal that provides pay raises and some protections around use of artificial intelligence among other gains.

The Writers Guild of America (WGA) leadership voted unanimously to end the strike on Wednesday, the guild said in a statement. The 11,500 members have until Oct. 9 to cast their votes on the proposed contract.

The WGA said the estimated value of the deal was $233 million per year.

Film and television writers walked off the job in May after failing to reach a deal with major studios, including Netflix, Walt Disney and Warner Bros Discovery.

Writers appeared to have won concessions across the board, with raises over the three years of the contract, increased health and pension contributions, and AI safeguards.

Under the agreement, the studios agreed to meet at least twice a year with the guild to discuss plans to use AI in film development and production.

The studios are not expressly prohibited from using AI to generate content. Writers, however, have the right to sue if their work is used to train AI.

Writers can choose to use AI when drafting scripts, but a company cannot require the use of the software. The studios also must disclose to a writer if any materials were generated by AI.

In other areas, the guild said it won guarantees of minimum staffing in writers’ rooms, a key issue for many of its members. Staffing will be determined by the number of episodes per season. Minimum pay rates will climb by more than 12% over three years.

Also, residuals will rise for the use of TV shows and movies outside of the United States and a bonus will be awarded for the most popular shows on streaming.

"These are essential protections that the companies told us, to our faces, that they would NEVER give us," writer Adam Conover, a member of the guild's negotiating committee, posted on social media platform X.

"But because of our solidarity, because they literally cannot make a dollar without us, they bent, then broke, and gave us what we deserve. WE WON," Conover said.

Television writer David Slack said: "Our strike was necessary. Our strike was effective. Our strike is a victory."

The strike's end means daytime and late-night talk shows can return to the air. Bill Maher, host of HBO's "Real Time," said on social media that he would be back with fresh episodes starting Friday.

"My writers and Real Time are back!" Maher wrote.

Maher and Drew Barrymore had angered writers by saying this month that their talk shows would return before the strike ended.

The end of the WGA strike does not return Hollywood to normal. The SAG-AFTRA actors union walked off the job in July and remains on strike.

(Reporting by Lisa Richwine and Dawn Chmielewski; Editing by Jamie Freed, Leslie Adler and Gerry Doyle)

Actors ‘Thrilled’ About WGA Deal but Hope Studios Offer SAG-AFTRA What It ‘Needs and Deserves’ (Video)

Raquel 'Rocky' Harris
Tue, September 26, 2023 at 3:00 PM MDT·4 min read


While on the picket lines, actors shared with TheWrap that they were excited about the Writers Guild of America’s deal and are hoping the studios give SAG-AFTRA members what they “need and deserve” in a contract.

“I was thrilled. So thrilled. The writers have been out on the line for almost triple what [actors have] been doing,” “The Walking Dead” actress Emma Bell told TheWrap on Tuesday. “The writers deserve everything that they feel they deserve. We would never have anything in this industry if we didn’t have [the writers], and it really made me hopeful for our deal.”

On Sunday, and after 146 days of striking, the Writers Guild reached a tentative deal with the AMPTP, sparking hope for possible talks with SAG-AFTRA. As TheWrap has reported, conversations are close but not imminent, and getting back to the table could take at least two weeks. And even after they agree to sit down again, the new round of negotiating could take longer than the five days the writers and AMPTP took.

The SAG-AFTRA strike will hit the 75-day mark Wednesday.

Nevertheless, actors and writers weighed in with their thoughts.

“I hope that the CEOs show up just like they did for the WGA so we can get this done,” Frances Fischer, actress and SAG-AFTRA negotiating committee member told TheWrap. “We have a huge package, much bigger than any other union because we have so many members and so many different categories of workers. I don’t prioritize because it all works together.”

As the WGA continues to sort out its contract with the AMPTP, the Actors Guild will have time to look over the writers’ deal, which in turn could help them steer their upcoming negotiation meeting with the studios, particularly on issues that overlap with other unions, including the use of artificial intelligence and minimum wage increases.

“Eleven percent, baby that’s where we’re at. Take a look at the economics for the last five to seven years. That’s where we’re at,” Kevin E. West, actor and SAG-AFTRA negotiating member, said referring to pay boosts for actors. “There’s certainly a mechanical difficulty of A.I. and an economical reality of financial share, but there’s also a day-to-day part of this union that goes all the way down to either something that has a lesser economic impasse on the AMPTP but still is equally as important to us. They are all important. “

West continued: “Quite frankly, it would just be easy if they’d just go ahead and sign the deal we left on the table. That’d make it really simple.”

While most were delighted at the progress made from the WGA deal, writer and producer Travis Adam Wright said he remains a bit skeptical.

“You know I wish I was more excited that I was. It’s kinda like when you’re in love with someone and they’ve broken your heart a couple of times, so you’re like, ‘Do they really love me? I’m not sure,” Wright said. “I was very lukewarm about it. We still haven’t read the details. Until we read the details of the deal, we don’t know what’s what.”

Wright continued, saying that he hopes that future dealmaking for the unions becomes more clear, and that unions push for more.

“I would love for us all to get back to work,” he said. “And three years from now, I’d love if we were striking for like 10% of profits or something real instead of 3%. You know, wow, we went from 3.6 to 3.8 of adjusted gross. As long as its adjusted gross, it might as well be fairy farts or something. Without transparency also in accounting, how do you know what they’re paying you? So I’m happy that we can all get back to work.”

He went on to say that without the united front of all the unions none of the progress made would have happened.

“We wouldn’t have gotten paid without SAG-AFTRA, period,” Wright added. “This is a collaborative medium. Without them we’re nothing. This industry can’t function without them, obviously. So they need to get paid and until they get paid, I’ll come out here every day.”

For all of TheWrap’s strike coverage, click here.

The Hollywood writers’ strike is over
Samantha Delouya, CNN
Tue, September 26, 2023 

Mario Anzuoni/Reuters

The Hollywood writers strike is finally over after 148 days.

Leaders of the Writers Guild of America have unanimously voted to authorize its members to return to work following the tentative agreement reached Sunday between union negotiators and Hollywood’s studios and streaming services, effectively ending the months-long strike that has paralyzed the industry.

“The WGAW Board and WGAE Council also voted to lift the restraining order and end the strike as of 12:01 am PT/3:01 am ET on Wednesday, September 27th. This allows writers to return to work during the ratification process, but does not affect the membership’s right to make a final determination on contract approval,” the WGA wrote online.

The tentative agreement, reached earlier this week, marks a turning point for Hollywood’s film and TV studios after both the WGA and SAG-AFTRA, the union that represents actors, went on strike this summer to fight for higher pay and protections against artificial intelligence.

The contract, which will expire in May 2026, includes pay increases, better benefits, protections against the studios’ use of artificial intelligence, guarantees for streaming compensation, longer-duration employment terms and other perks.

Most writers’ minimum pay will increase 5% immediately, another 4% in May 2024 and then another 3.5% in May 2025. Health fund contributions will increase by a half percentage point to 12% of companies’ reportable earnings. And writers working on the same script will no longer need to split pension and health contributions.

Writers were particularly concerned about the growth of streaming, because they lose out on residuals that traditional television shows paid when they were re-run.

For big streaming projects, namely feature-length productions with a budget of at least $30 million, minimum writer compensation for a story and teleplay will increase 18% to $100,000. Residual pay minimums for big-budget streaming productions will increase by more than a quarter. And other residuals for video on-demand services will yield a 50% bonus to writers when the shows are watched by a fifth of domestic subscribers in the first three months of a project’s run. That means writers could take home more than $9,000 for a half-hour eposide, and more than $16,000 for a one-hour episode for big-budget productions on the top services.

Those services, such as Netflix, Disney+ and Max, also pledged to increase transparency about how many hours certain programs were streamed.

A summary of the agreement by the WGA included AI protections. “AI can’t write or rewrite literary material,” according to the summary, which also noted a requirement that AI-generated materials must be disclosed to writers.

The agreement also addressed streaming residuals and transparency for data around streaming. The rise of Netflix and other such services over the years have helped transform Hollywood, becoming a major issue in the writers’ and actors’ strikes.

Although union leadership has allowed union members to return to work, their contracts with the studios have not yet been officially ratified, meaning union members may still reject the terms of the deal, potentially prolonging a historic strike that has crippled many parts of the US entertainment industry.

A SAG-AFTRA spokesperson said in a statement regarding its own negotiations that the union is “reviewing the WGA’s tentative agreement and are committed to achieving a fair and just deal for our members.”

“We remain on strike in our TV/Theatrical/Streaming contract and will inform our members when there is negotiations news to share. We will not speculate regarding schedule or next steps,” the spokesperson said.

The union said “eligible voters will be able to vote from October 2nd through October 9th, and will receive ballot and ratification materials when the vote opens.”

The WGA officially began striking on May 2, making the strike one of the longest in its history. The current record was in 1988 when the WGA struck for 154 days.

The Hollywood strikes have been costly, with a nationwide economic impact of more than $5 billion, according to economists. The pain has been felt by more than just Hollywood insiders; restaurants and businesses that cater to the entertainment industry, like makeup and custodial work, have experienced a downturn, as well.

Bill Maher, who said he would return to air during the writers strike before backing off that pledge, announced Tuesday his show would officially come back Friday.

- CNN’s Eva Rothenberg contributed to this report

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