Thursday, April 25, 2024

"Liberalists vigorously oppose Christianity" - Georgian PM at conservative forum in Hungary

FASCIST WAR ON THE ENLIGHTENMENT

JAMnews

Tbilisi

Georgian and Hungarian authorities against the West

Georgian prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze participated in a conservative political conference in Hungary organized by Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban on April 25.

In his speech, Kobakhidze echoed several anti-Western propaganda statements, similar to those often used by Russian representatives. Specifically, Irakli Kobakhidze stated that “so-called liberals” are fervently fighting against Christianity.

Viktor Orban, in turn, expressed his support for Irakli Kobakhidze.

“Irakli Kobakhidze, the prime minister of Georgia, is considered a great chess player in Georgian politics. In Georgia’s centuries-old history, chess is a geopolitical game. The ability to preserve national identity and culture in one’s country despite all difficulties is the skill of a true chess player, a grandmaster. Mr. prime minister, we thank you for being with us and wish you success,” said Viktor Orban.

Prime ministers of Georgia (left) and Hungary, Irakli Kobakhidze and Viktor Orban Georgian and Hungarian authorities against the West — *Prime ministers of Georgia (left) and Hungary, Irakli Kobakhidze and Viktor Orban*

What did the prime minister of Georgia say?

During his address, Kobakhidze primarily focused on making anti-Western, homophobic, and populist statements.

“Tо-so-called liberals vigorously oppose Christianity. The only difference between these so-called liberals and Bolsheviks is that the Bolsheviks used the hammer as their main weapon against religion [an allusion to the Soviet emblem of the hammer and sickle — JAMnews]. Meanwhile, these so-called liberals attack Christianity through propaganda, which is much more powerful than the hammer,” said Irakli Kobakhidze.

The prime minister also attempted to discredit ongoing protests in Tbilisi against the adoption of the “foreign agent” law.

“The Georgian Orthodox Church has become a special target of their attacks. A few days ago, Georgian so-called liberals even tried to change the concept of Georgia’s national identity. It consists of three words: homeland, language, faith. But they removed the notion of ‘faith’ and only spoke about homeland and language,” Kobakhidze stated.

Irakli Kobakhidze also emphasized the importance of “clear gender identity.”

“Just a couple of decades ago, no one could have imagined discussing this issue seriously. Liberals argue that a person should not have a stable gender identity and that everyone can change their gender at any stage of life. Even a child should have the right to choose their gender. Liberals find it unacceptable to use traditional gender terms such as woman and man, or mother and father.

“In essence, liberals are completely alien to values such as freedom and tolerance. Their continuation of this approach is their active campaign to liberalize drug policy. But it should be remembered that drugs kill a person’s thinking personality and make them useless beings,” Irakli Kobakhidze concluded.

During his speech at the same conservative conference in 2023, then-prime minister Irakli Garibashvili stated that “the Hungarian people are very lucky to have such a wise and far-sighted leader.”

Garibashvili spoke then about “forces opposing the truth, which are trying to achieve their goals through LGBT propaganda.”

According to Associated Press, Hungary is largely isolated in Europe due to its right-wing populist government. And now the authorities of this country are looking for countries or groups in other countries that would become their like-minded allies.

The “Conservative Political Action Conference” (CPAC), organized by the “American Conservative Union,” first took place in 1974. This annual event is held in different countries. Hungary has been hosting the conference for the third year.

The Hungarian government is considered the most pro-Russian and populist in the European Union.

The leaders of Hungary and Georgia do not hide their sympathies for each other’s policies. In October 2022, Viktor Orban called his Georgian colleague Irakli Garibashvili “a great politician among the few who have returned to true values.” And Garibashvili responded that “the government of Georgia has taken many examples from Hungary and is proud of its successful reforms.”

Bankers reassessing accelerating climate crisis in anticipation of trillions of dollars of annual damage

The climate crisis has gone from a meme to something that threatens to do trillions of dollars of damage every year. Banks are starting to get worried and are assessing their exposure to the risk that could bankrupt them. / bne IntelliNews

By Ben Aris in Berlin April 25, 2024

As global temperatures continue to rise, banks are facing growing financial risks associated with the changing climate and have switched their focus from selling things like green bonds to trying to assess their exposure to possible trillions of dollars of damage hurricanes and floods will cause in the coming years.

A new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) publication Nature warns that climate change up to 2050 could do $38 trillion in damage and knock a fifth off global income.

Under worse-case scenarios based on current emissions trajectories, temperatures will miss the 1.5C cap and rise by 3C to 4C, which will have disastrous impact on many countries.

Potsdam’s central scenario is that the global economy could face $38 trillion a year of climate damages a year by 2050, which would knock 19% off projected per capita incomes and that much of that damage is already locked in even if emissions start to fall now. Under the worst-case scenario the study found that the damage could rise to $59 trillion by 2050 and incomes would fall by 60%.

The report concluded: "Our analysis shows that climate change will cause massive economic damages within the next 25 years in almost all countries around the world, including highly developed ones such as Germany, France and the United States."

However, the extent to of the damage and how it manifests itself remains an open question, due to the myriad uncertainties associate with the Climate Crisis, which is why banks are starting to tool and man up with staff to assess the risks.

As 2023 starts, the all-time record extreme records are already being smashed on a daily basis as the world moves into uncharted territory, a paper published by Oxford Academic warned in December that tracks the climate vital signs: 20 of the 35 indicators are already flashing red.

According to the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the potential economic shocks of global warming could significantly impair banks' balance sheets and even threaten the overall stability of the banking sector in the annual disaster seasons that appeared last year.

Initially banks concentrated on so-called transition risks related to asset value changes and costs linked to global decarbonisation efforts. However, the growing frequency of extreme weather events has shifted their focus towards more immediate physical risks.

For example, bankers were caught off guard after the first ever category five hurricane hit Acapulco last year, virtually destroying the popular tourist seaside resort town that was ill-prepared for such a strong storm. Floods have also become common around the world due to higher rainfall that is a consequence of global warming, and threaten to sweep entire towns and villages on big river banks away.

So far, the worst disasters have hit emerging markets. Countries in the tropics will suffer the most because they are already warmer. The irony is that the countries least responsible for climate change are the ones likely to suffer the worst damage, and the ones that are most responsible will suffer the least.

But some more developed countries have already found themselves in the front line. Last year saw massive flooding in Greece that devastated the country’s agricultural sector and did damage that will take five or more years to repair, if there are no more storms.

European farms have also warned of a “harvest catastrophe” this year as temperatures on the Continent have seesawed between the hottest ever days on record for early April, before northern Europe was plunged into a cold snap in the second half of the month that saw unseasonal snowfall in Belgium.

European farmers who were unable to plant winter crops last autumn had been banking on a dry spring this year to be able to plant those same fields with springs crops, but have been met with a quagmire. The prospects of establishing spring crops are looking increasingly slim, which will have an impact on European grain yields this year and hence prices.

Heavy rainfall over the last fortnight is increasing farmers’ concerns as it follows relentless rain since October, and there is more heavy rainfall on the horizon. This year’s harvest prospects are looking bleak.

And in a sign of things to come, in Dubai things were even more extreme when an entire year’s worth of rain fell in a single day, turning the capital of the normally arid United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a lake.

Extreme weather is something that is starting to have an impact on entire economies and which banks are beginning to feel forced to factor into their regular stocks and bonds analysis. Devastating floods in Pakistan in 2022 erased 2.2% of the country's GDP. Canada's severe wildfire season in 2023 and a significant drought at the Panama Canal affected growth and international trade in a measurable way, and disrupted a critical global trade route handling $270bn annually.

To better prepare for these environmental threats, JPMorgan has been bolstering its workforce, including hiring catastrophe modellers to assess potential impacts on its real estate portfolios. And a December report by BloombergNEF revealed that extreme climate events can severely affect companies up to the point of bankruptcy. Still, many are still not fully aware of their vulnerability as analysts race to catch up with the pace of change. Bloomberg’s study showed that 65% of over 2,000 companies analysed did not recognise potential physical risks in their operations, and even fewer conducted financial assessments of these risks.

Citigroup has also acknowledged the broad spectrum of risks posed by climate change, Bloomberg reports, including credit, liquidity and operational risks. Last month, Citigroup introduced a Climate Risk Heat Map to evaluate the vulnerability of its credit exposures to climate-related risks, identifying its oil and gas production loan book, along with the semiconductor and ports sectors, as areas with high physical and transition risk scores.

The Potsdam report concluded that "protecting our climate is much cheaper than not doing so, and that is without even considering non-economic impacts such as loss of life or biodiversity".

Polluting rivers, beaches and the ocean: How can Trinidad solve its plastics problem?

24 April 2024

Plastic pollution blocks rivers, chokes oceans and makes its way into the food chain as microplastics. It’s a global environmental crisis, and Small Island Developing States are especially vulnerable, having to cope with detritus washing up on their beaches, as well as the waste they generate themselves.

The Maraval river winds its way through Port of Spain, the capital of Trinidad & Tobago, reaching the sea at Invaders Bay, the evocative name of the site where British troops landed in the late 18th Century.

Today, the area is heavily built up, and construction has begun on a large-scale project that is expected to see hotels, housing and shops spring up on the oceanfront. Another by-product of development is plastic pollution; on the day that UN News went to the Maraval River, a steady stream of waste could be seen floating downstream, including water bottles, detergent containers and even a discarded yoga ball aimlessly bobbing around.

Countries like Trinidad are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of plastic pollution. They are heavily dependent on imports and receive tonnes of plastic every day. In Trinidad alone, around 129,000 metric tonnes of plastic are brought into the country every year.

Trinidad has limited resources to treat the waste, which directly affects tourism and fishing, two important elements of the country’s economy; tourists don’t want to relax on beaches covered in waste, and marine litter can damage fish stocks and boats.

Coastal communities can suffer from reduced income and employment while shouldering clean-up operation costs. On top of that, there’s an increased risk of flooding due to blocked stormwater systems and drainage, meaning higher clean-up costs, and increased maintenance for water infrastructure.

From bust to boom

Dealing with the problem might appear to be an overwhelming task, but in Trinidad, the UN is working with local organizations to not only collect the waste, but also find ways to reuse it in ways that benefit local communities.

At Invaders Bay, a group of volunteers from environmental consulting firm Coastal Dynamics have stretched a boom across both banks of the Maraval River. This traps most of the detritus and stops it from reaching the ocean. In just one week, hundreds of plastic items are pushed up against the boom, almost enough to reach both sides of the river, a visually arresting indicator of the amount of waste that is pouring down Trinidad’s waterways on a daily basis.

“The Maraval is a thoroughfare of plastic,” said Frank Teelucksingh, a Trinidadian oceanographer and the director of Coastal Dynamics. “This is just one example. During the wet season, the rain washes all the plastic off the land, into the rivers and then the sea. There are dozens and dozens of rivers in Trinidad, and they don’t yet have booms stopping the plastic from flowing into the ocean”.

Mr. Teelucksingh explained that the pilot project, which receives funding from the UN’s Green Environment Fund, also has an educational aspect, in a country where, he says, the population doesn’t trust the water from the tap, and doesn’t have a history of responsibly disposing water bottles and other waste. Mr. Teelucksingh is in discussion with the government and UN to scale up the project to many more of Trinidad’s rivers.

But, whilst this might remove the plastic out of the water, it won’t solve the wider problem: Only around 10 per cent of plastic in Trinidad is recycled, and the remaining 90 per cent is discarded either in landfills, waterways or elsewhere in the environment.

The UN in Trinidad is attempting to make a dent in these stark figures, by developing upcycling projects that involve collecting discarded waste, and turning it into useful products that can benefit local communities and the country at large.

UN News/ Brianna Rowe
Plastic waste is mixed with water and sand to make sequestered concrete in Trinidad.

A concrete solution

In the village of Kernaham, a farming community on the east coast of Trinidad, UN News met Sharda Mahabir, an environmental expert at the UN Development Program (UNDPOpens in new window) in Trinidad and Tobago, beside a greenhouse which appeared to be made of wood. In fact, it is constructed entirely of waste plastic.

“Plastic lumber is made of all kinds of waste, including high density plastic like bleach bottles, fabric softener bottles, and plastic bags,” explained Ms. Mahabir. “We combine all of these different types of plastics into an extruded product, which looks like wood”.

The lumber is made at a factory in Arima, near Port of Spain, where sacks of plastic are taken to large shredders to be cut into multi-coloured pieces, the size of breakfast cereal. The raw materials are mostly containers made from types of plastic that can’t be recycled and, therefore, have no commercial value. Many other types of plastic, such as industrial sheeting, and even car interiors, are also stacked up, ready to be broken down, melted, and converted into strong and durable building materials that have been turned into a range of products, such as benches, tables, and window frames.

Ms. Mahabir was keen to demonstrate another way to use the shredded material and prevent it from adding to the microplastic pandemic: concrete. She introduced UN News to members of a group for vulnerable women in Kernaham, who were adding shredded plastic to gravel, to bind together sand and water and create “sequestered concrete” as a way of trapping plastic, and removing it from the environment.

“The women collect plastics on the beach and from their own communities, and then process them in such a way that they can make products out of it,” said Ms. Mahabir. “They're making plant pots, benches and pavers. As well as the environmental benefits, they are creating extra income for themselves”.

“I started this group because of the poverty level in my community,” explained Omatie Rampersad, the President of the Kernaham/Cascadoux Women’s Group. “We also have a lot of plastic pollution in the area, it goes into the streams, causes flooding and, when we burn it, it pollutes the air.

We want to have a clean environment, and we want to empower women by helping them to become financially sustainable. We also want to educate our people and the surrounding communities on how to dispose of plastics properly. We are trying our best to show the whole country how we can deal with this problem.”

UN News/ Brianna Rowe
Plastic waste is shredded before being turned into lumber at a factory in Arima, Trinidad

An international plastics treaty

From 23 to 29 April, delegates from around the world are meeting in Ottawa, Canada, to continue negotiations on the development of a legally binding agreement that will bring the international community closer to finally being able to get to grips with plastic pollution, particularly in the marine environment.

Speaking at the opening session of the meeting, Inger Andersen, the head of the UN Environment Programme (UNEPOpens in new window), expressed her hopeOpens in new window that the talks will lead to a reduction in the production of problematic waste, and more investment in solid waste management and recycling.

Ms. Mahabir agreed with these aims and added that, on top of education, more research and development investment is needed to create alternatives to the kinds of plastics that are ubiquitous in most societies.

“Maybe there's some plant, some tropical tree or fruit that could be converted into a biodegradable plastic. We want to encourage the younger generation to consider taking up the sciences that are required to develop these potential alternatives.

Until then, we have to find ways to deal with the problem, and this is what our programmes are addressing. We also need to address the economic angle; there's a lot of unemployment in Trinidad, and we want to see if upcycling can generate jobs. Every piece of furniture built in the plastic lumber factory has been sold, helping to support more livelihoods. I hope that an agreement can be reached in Ottawa, one that encourages the private sector to invest more in recy

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Polluting rivers, beaches and the ocean: How can Trinidad solve its plastics problem?

Abundance, capitalism and climate change

BRANKO MILANOVIC
APR 25, 2024

In classical Marxism, communism is defined as a society of material abundance. It is a society where goods flow in abundance (“after the productive forces have…increased…all the springs of co-operative wealth flow more abundantly”, Marx, Critique of the Gotha Program). It is also a society that, having overcome the division of labor, allows for full self-realization and flowering of individual abilities:

He is a hunter, a fisherman, a herdsman, or a critical critic, and must remain so [under capitalism] if he does not want to lose his means of livelihood; while in communist society, where nobody has one exclusive sphere of activity but each can become accomplished in any branch he wishes, society regulates the general production and thus makes it possible for me to do one thing today and another tomorrow, to hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticize after dinner… without ever becoming hunter, fisherman, herdsman or critic.” (The German Ideology)

When we define abundance in communist society it is important to keep in mind that it is material abundance, viz., abundance of physical goods and some services. This cannot be a abundance in everything. We can each have as many cars as we wish but the number of desirable parking places near the good restaurant, where we get a free dinner, or near a good theater will always be limited.

One could even argue that the abundance of material goods cannot be absolute. For example, if cars are abundant and one can have as many as he or she wishes, they can indulge in anti-social behavior by destroying a car each day. Thus eventually, society must step in and impose a limit on the number of cars. It can be countered, however, that this is not a likely behavior because a socially destructive behavior is generally indulged in order to show power and wealth. One could expect this kind of behavior to be minimized in communist societies because wanton destruction of goods that are accessible to all does not convey status. A useful comparator may be the wastefulness with the things that are relatively cheap today like water or electricity are used. Neither of them is, for most households in rich countries, very expensive. There is thus no particular status one gets by being ostentatiously wasteful with them. The same might apply for most goods under communism: since they are accessible to all, intentional wastefulness is not signaling power.

This summary of the standard Marxist view faces one significant problem. The definition of abundance implies full satisfaction of all needs. However, Marx very clearly defines needs as a social category, something that evolves with the development of society. What it means is what we perceive as a need today is a function of what currently exists in the world and consequently what is the current level of development. In Roman times nobody felt the need for a smart phone, nor a frustration if they did not have it. Likewise, we do not experience the need to spend a weekend on Mars simply because such a good is unavailable.

If needs are a historical category, then new needs arise with technological progress. If new needs are constantly born, the abundance that was presumed in the opening paragraphs cannot be achieved because sufficient material means to satisfy these new needs will always be deficient. When the first laptop was invented, no matter how efficient the production, society could not create billions of laptops almost instantly. Some people’s needs for a new laptop had to go unsatisfied. The access to new goods must always be unequal, and this inequality will produce frustration and imply absence of abundance.

To summarize: Our needs increase in step with technological progress but the technological progress cannot at all points in time satisfy the needs of everybody. Abundance defined as full satisfaction of all material needs cannot be achieved in technologically advancing societies.

When can all needs be covered by societal production? Only in a society which does not experience technological progress and where no new needs can arise. In such a society it is possible to imagine an almost unlimited production of things which already exist. That society can be related to today's society by realizing that in the rich part of the world most of our current material needs, defined in terms of goods that already exist, can be fully satisfied. Given the productive capacity of rich countries, everyone could have a decent home, refrigerator, laptop, dishwasher, car etc.

To reach a society of abundance requires that we accept absence of technological progress or economic stationarity. The question then becomes whether capitalist society can ever be stationary. Schumpeter thought that imagining capitalism as a stationary society is a contradiction in terms. Capitalism can exist only if profits, on average, are positive. No capitalist or entrepreneur would invest if they cannot expect a net return, no more than a worker would work for a zero wage. If profits are positive they will be used for investment; investments will generate growth, and that very growth will create new products, which in turn will create new needs and make the society of abundance impossible.

This then means that the stationary society that is compatible with full satisfaction of all human needs cannot be capitalist. Capitalism, by definition, means limitless change and limitless progress. With the society of limitless change and limitless progress we cannot have abundance.

Degrowth advocates therefore might have a valid point when they argue for an end to capitalism if they believe that climate change can be stopped only if society is stationary. Stationary society, end of capitalism, and abundance are logically consistent.

P.S. The last point is an implication based (I hope correctly) on Kohei Saito’s arguments. I had a privilege to participate in a panel with Kohei and my interpretation is based on that discussion. I have not yet read his just published (in English) book “Slowdown: The Degrowth Manifesto”.

The West Should Brace for Long-Term Deterrence of Russia

By Boris Grozovski

on April 25, 2024
KENNAN INSTITUTE

After months of political wrangling the Ukraine military aid package cleared both chambers of Congress and was signed by the president on Wednesday. This is an important milestone signaling bipartisan support for the Ukrainian cause. Yet, although immediate shipments were promised, a substantial portion of the package—$48 billion out of nearly $61 billion—will pay for replenishing U.S. weapons stockpiles and producing new equipment for Ukraine.

Russia, meanwhile, shows no signs of curbing its confrontation with the West. Regardless of how long Ukraine can withstand the onslaught of the Russian war machine, or whether the United States and Europe can continue providing support to Ukraine, the current season of confrontation between Russia and the West promises to be a long one.

Not Provoking the Aggressor?

Russia will remain a threat to the United States and its allies for a long time to come, analysts Miranda Priebe and Samuel Charap write in a RAND research report (for a quick read, see the research brief with a summary). They paint two scenarios. In the one more favorable to the United States, the war ends quickly, the ceasefire is sustainable, and the Russian war machine is severely weakened. In the less favorable (and potentially more likely) scenario the war of attrition lasts a long time, the ceasefire is unsustainable, and Russia is not weakened enough to cease preparations for the next imperialist wars.

In both more and less favorable scenarios, the RAND report says, the United States could adopt softer or tougher policies toward Russia. By choosing relative softness, the United States would signal it was willing to negotiate with Russia. It would not send additional military forces to Eastern Europe, and it would show restraint in providing political and military support to countries threatened by Russia. If it chose relative toughness, the United States would continue efforts to gain Ukraine accession to NATO and would seek to punish, contain, and weaken Russia for its aggression.

This leads to a matrix of four scenarios. If Russia is significantly weakened by the war, the U.S. hard approach leads to Cold War 2.0. The soft approach leads to “cold peace.” If Russia quickly rebuilds its military machine after the war, the U.S. soft approach leads to localized instability and the hard approach to widespread, pervasive instability.

If Russia’s aggressiveness continues unabated and the United States pursues a tough policy, international tensions will rise rapidly, Russian-Chinese cooperation will deepen, NATO-Russia relations will deteriorate further, and global economic fragmentation will increase. With a softer policy, the United States weakens its support for European NATO countries. U.S. relations with Russia improve slightly. China’s ties with Russia do not strengthen, and global trade does not fragment into competing blocs. The United States is less involved in the conflict with Russia and can shift its focus to the rivalry with China. This scenario is very similar to Trump’s possible policy in 2025.

Priebe and Charap conclude that the best scenario for the United States is one in which Russia is weakened as much as possible by the war and the United States pursues a soft policy afterward. The worst scenario is one in which Russia’s war machine remains strong and the United States pursues a tough policy.

This conclusion and reasoning may seem logical: both strategically and economically, peace is better than war, and global war is worse than local war. The problem, however, is that the likelihood and intensity of the war Russia is waging are determined less by the hawkish or dovish policies of the United States than by the capabilities and desires of the Kremlin. Russia is not losing the current war of attrition, and the longer the war goes on, the less likely are the scenarios favorable to the United States. The Russian war machine is clearly accelerating.

For Russia to be significantly weakened at the end of the war with Ukraine, aid to Ukraine now would have to be much more timely and massive. The current difficulties the United States and Europe are experiencing in providing timely, adequate military assistance to Ukraine reduce the likelihood of a cold peace and new Cold War scenarios. Having ended the war with Ukraine, Russia may be almost ready for new wars.

Priebe and Charap seem to underestimate Russia’s willingness and ability to continue waging war in Eastern Europe and overestimate the beneficial effects of U.S. peacemaking. They also assume that a soft U.S. policy will help avoid a Russian conflict with NATO members. However, the likelihood of such a conflict depends much more on events and attitudes in Moscow than on events and attitudes in Washington. If the Kremlin's appetite for risk continues to grow, a soft U.S. policy will only encourage an attack.

The real consequence of the softer U.S. policy could be what we have seen online in recent months: Ukraine's weapons deficit, the accelerated pace of Russia's offensive, and direct signals that the offensive will not be limited to Kharkiv or even the whole of Ukraine. What provokes Russia most is not the West's strength and toughness but its weakness, its fragmented and delayed efforts, its indecision and half-heartedness, and the many holes in European and transatlantic unity.

Stopping Russia

The authors of the CEPA report, edited by Sam Greene and SaraJane Rzegocki, have a much more realistic view of Russian politics. They take seriously the claims of Putin and his associates that from 2022 on, Russia has been at war not with Ukraine but with the West. Even the end of the Russia-Ukraine war will not stop Russia’s war with the West. Russia’s challenge to the West is not limited to Ukraine and will not disappear in the coming years.

This is exactly what Putin and his associates are warning the West about. The chances are very high that Russia will continue its war with the West after Putin leaves office.

Russia’s goals now, according to the CEPA report, are as follows:To maintain the power of Putin’s elite through the military mobilization of society;
To change the world order by depriving the United States of its primacy and changing the international norms and rules that have brought prosperity to much of the world since 1945; and
To gain military, political, and economic dominance in the post-Soviet space.

To counter these attempts, the United States should not only contain Russia but also deny it the ability to wage war in Europe and in the post-Soviet space, now and in the future.

This will require attention and vigilance. Deterrence is the only alternative to escalation, says the CEPA report, whose authors echo George Kennan's famous cable. A new deterrence strategy should include a strengthened NATO commitment to defend the Eastern bloc countries, countering Russia's attempts to destabilize Western societies and influence their politics, and a principled refusal to accept that the post-Soviet countries are an area of interest to Moscow. Similar recommendations to the U.S. authorities can be found in the CFR report, written by Liand Fix and Maria Snegovaya, and the CNAS report, prepared by Andrea Kendall-Taylor.

The strategy of deterrence involves supplying Ukraine with weapons not "as long as it takes" but "as quickly as possible." This requires a significant strengthening of transatlantic and European solidarity to overcome the strategic weakness of the West. It requires a significant increase in U.S. and European engagement in Moldova, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia, including, curiously, assistance to China in building alternative trade routes between Southeast Asia and Europe.

In the absence of a firm and coherent deterrence strategy, Russia will continue to pose threatening challenges to NATO and Europe. The goal of deterrence should not be the defeat or collapse of Russia. During the Cold War, the goal of the United States and Western Europe was not the defeat or collapse of the USSR. It was to preserve world order, protect the United States and its allies, and prevent further destabilization of the international order. Doing so this time will be difficult and will require determination, consistency, internal unity, and a great deal of patience.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.

BURMA/MYANMAR

Video shows rebel group sentencing own fighters to death for ‘abuse of power’

Footage of public spectacle provides a rare look at how the ethnic army metes out justice to its own.

By RFA Burmese
2024.04.25

Video shows rebel group sentencing own fighters to death for ‘abuse of power’

Screen capture from video of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army sentencing former Kokang rebels, April 2024.

Kokang Information Network via Facebook

The video opens with an overhead shot of 10 individuals wearing blue jumpsuits on a stage adorned with banners in Chinese and large loudspeakers before slowly pulling back to reveal hundreds of spectators – several of them clutching brightly colored umbrellas to keep the sun off their faces.

But this is not a performance. The images captured in northeastern Myanmar’s Kokang region, in Shan state near China, show a public trial in the capital Laukkai by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, of members of their own ethnic army accused of “abuse of power.”

Among them is a 36-year-old district commander and two other guerrillas who the ethnic army said in a statement on Thursday it had executed following the trial on April 24. The remaining seven fighters received prison sentences, the MNDAA said.

The highly produced three-minute video provides a rare look at how the rebel army metes out justice to its own in the Kokang region after it captured Laukkai on Jan. 4.

The group is one of three ethnic militias making up the Three Brotherhood Alliance – along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army – that has dealt the junta’s military forces a series of defeats since late last October. Their offensive has turned the tide in the civil war that broke out after the military overthrew a democratically elected government in a February 2021 coup d’etat.

In the video, which features a rousing, militaristic soundtrack, onlookers snap photos with their cellphones while officials in fatigues read out the alleged crimes of the 10 soldiers and their punishments. Within the crowd are families with young children, as well as groups of students with their instructors.

EU condemns executions

At the conclusion of the trial, the soldiers are led away in arm and leg shackles with signs hung around their necks identifying them as criminals in bold Chinese characters.

Three of the signs sport red Xs on them, marking those condemned to death. These men are made to stand in vehicles as they are driven through Laukkai to a field on the outskirts of the capital.

Screen capture from video of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army sentencing former Kokang rebels, April 2024. (Kokang Information Network via Facebook)

The next segment shows the three being led into the field before the picture fades to black. An order is heard and shots ring out, although no execution is shown.

In a statement on Thursday, the European Union condemned the executions “in the strongest terms,” calling them “an inhuman and degrading punishment that represents an ultimate denial of human dignity.”

The EU added that upholding the rule of law in accordance with international standards is an “effort integral to the aspirations for federal democracy.”

Attempts by RFA to contact MNDAA spokesperson Lee Kyar Win for additional information went unanswered.

Kokang has long been in China’s orbit, and many of its residents are ethnically Chinese. In the mid-20th century, Kokang served as a base for Myanmar communists, before the Communist Party of Burma collapsed in 1989.

In recent months, China had expressed increasing frustration with organized crime rings that had been allowed to operate in Kokang by junta-aligned forces. An estimated 120,000 people are being held in Myanmar against their will. Chinese nationals have both been trafficked by these groups and fleeced by them.

In its statement, the MNDAA said that the district commander who was sentenced to death had been involved in the kidnapping of two Burmese drivers, more than 10 Chinese nationals and six Vietnamese nationals between July and September of 2023. He also took part in the murder of two Chinese nationals, it said.

The other two fighters sentenced to death had served in the Logistics Department of Brigade 311 and were convicted of the theft and sale of weapons, as well as their involvement in “deadly kidnappings.”

Of the remaining seven soldiers, a deputy battalion commander of an MNDAA-aligned militia force and the deputy commander of Battalion 191 were sentenced to 15 and 20 years in prison, respectively. The other five were sentenced to terms ranging from two to five years in prison.

The MNDAA publicly executed four people on May 2, 2023, after convicting them of kidnapping and murdering Chinese nationals in Shan state’s largest town, Lashio.

Translated by Kalyar Lwin. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.

European Arctic experienced warmer-than-average conditions for most of 2023: report

In Svalbard, climate change is causing shorter winters, yo-yo temperatures, permafrost thawing and more frequent precipitation, increasingly in the form of rain, all conditions that increase the risk of avalanches and landslides. Photo: Thomas Nilsen

The European Arctic saw above-normal temperatures for

the majority of 2023, says the new European State of the

Climate report from the EU’s Copernicus program and the

World Meteorological Organization.

April 23, 2024

January and February were the standout months where temperatures were 10-11C higher than what is normally expected.

The below-average sea ice around the Norwegian Arctic Archipelago of Svalbard is one factor connected to the higher temperatures, the report said.

“In 2023, the average summer temperature in Svalbard was the highest on record, at 1.66 C above average, surpassing the previous record of 1.47 C above average in 2022,” the authors said.

“As in 2022, the warm summer for the region as a whole can be linked in part to below-average sea ice cover and above-average sea surface temperatures.”

The sea surface temperatures of the Kara Sea off the northwestern coast of Russia in August and September were another contributing factor that the report described as “much above average.”

Greenland ice melt

Greenland also experienced unusually high temperatures in summer 2023.

This resulted in substantial melting as wet snow is darker and absorbs more heat and light compared to dry snow, which is lighter and reflects heat and light.

“This darkening was most prominent in July and across the lowest elevations of northern and southwestern Greenland,” the report authors said.

“In these areas, the surface darkening was related in large part to melting that produced ‘blue slush’ at the surface. Another factor that may have contributed to the lower albedo was the deposition of aerosols from widespread wildfires burning in Canada at the time.”

Climate report, Quick Facts

Svalbard had its hottest summer since records started
The Greenland Ice Sheet had heatwave conditions for most of July and a shorter period in August
Weather carried smoke from wildfires in Canada to Greenland in July contributing to significant melt
The Arctic Ocean’s annual sea, and sea ice, surface temperature were the sixth highest since satellite records began in 1982

In all, 2023 was sixth-warmest year for the Arctic since data collection began.

The report was released on April 22, which coincides with International Earth Day.

This story is posted on The Barents Observer as part of Eye on the Arctic, a collaborative partnership between public and private circumpolar media organizations.

Nornickel moves production to China to circumvent sanctions

War sanctions bite hard on Russia’s Arctic mining and metallurgical giant producing nickel and copper on the Kola Peninsula and in Norilsk.

Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant in Norilsk on the Taymyr Peninsula.

Photo: Thomas Nilsen

By Thomas Nilsen
April 24, 2024

Vladimir Potanin, the main shareholder of mega-polluter Nornickel, admits in a remarkable statement with Kremlin’s information agency Interfax that Western sanctions reduces the company’s revenue by up to 20%.

To circumnavigate sanctions, Potanin says Nornickel plans to establish a joint venture with a Chinese company and move parts of the copper smelting to China.

It was earlier in April that the United States and United Kingdom imposed sanctions on nonferrous metals from Russia.

Nornickel is one of the world’s largest producers of nickel, copper and platinum, with mines and factories in the Murmansk region and in Norilsk on the Taymyr Peninsula in northern Siberia.

Although the European Union has not imposed similar sanctions, many European customers refuse to buy products from Nornickel. The important London Metal Exchange is due to the UK sanctions now barred from accepting nonferrous metals from Russia.

Nickel, copper and cobalt are important metals in battery production for electrical vehicles (EVs).

Potanin said to Interfax: “… pressure forced us to think about how to better deliver our commodity to markets. And one such nonstandard decision is moving a portion of production markets of direct consumption.”

China is the world’s largest producer of batteries for EVs.

By moving production to China, Potanin said it “will enable us to avoid big losses due to current difficulties with settlements, supply refusals, discounts on our metal and the formation of inventories.”

Nornickel said in its 1Q production report that its Kola division last year delivered a trial batch of premium quality nickel for the Chinese electroplating sector and will continue to do so this year.

Potanin did not name which company he wants to team-up with in China. The new plant should be constructed by mid-2027 and will get about two million tons of copper concentrate a year. Shipment to China will take place along the Northern Sea Route, the Arctic shipping lane along the partly ice-covered waters north of Siberia.

Loading onto one of Nornickel’s ice-strengtened vessels at the port

of Dudinka by the Yenisey River.

Photo: Thomas Nilsen

Nornickel has its own fleet of ice-strengthened, partly icebreaking, vessels for shipping of metals and concentrate.

As previously reported by the Barents Observer, Nornickel’s Kola division has shut down the old copper plant in Monchegorsk and moved production to Norilsk awaiting a new state-of-the-art technology plant to replace production in Monchegorsk.

Modernization of the Nadezhda factory in Norilsk has been going on for years, with Nornickel promising a sharp reduction of sulphur dioxide pollution.

It is production currently taking place the Nadezda plant that will be moved to the new joint-venture factory in China.

First built by Stalin’s prisoners in the Norillag labor camps from 1935 to 1956, the factories in Norilsk is mainly infamous for enormous air pollution problems. Since Vladimir Potanin gained control of the company through the controversial loans-for-shares program in the early 1990s, he has become one of the wealthiest oligarchs in post-Soviet Russia’s bandit economy.

From autumn 1996 to spring 1997, Vladimir Potanin was Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister. Today, he is considered to be a close ally of Vladimir Putin who is wanted by the International Criminal Court in Haag for war crimes.