$-hell to take billion-dollar hit from Rotterdam biofuel site
Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) is expected to write down up to $1 billion in impairment charges after pausing construction of its 820-000-tonne-per-year biofuels facility in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Shell announced the on-site pause earlier this week, stating that it would undertake an impairment review of the plant.
“Temporarily pausing on-site construction now will allow us to assess the most commercial way forward for the project,” said Huibert Vigeveno, Shell’s downstream, renewables and energy solutions director.
Shell began work on the plant in 2021, but plans fell to the wayside as the oil supermajor reassessed its commitment to green energy plans.
In a second-quarter trading update published today, Shell said it expects non-cash post-tax impairments of up to $2 billion, with up to $1 billion arising from pausing on-site construction of its Rotterdam HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) facility.
Up to $800 million worth of impairments will also come from Shell’s Singapore-based chemicals & products segment.
CLIMATE CRISIS
Hurricane Beryl strikes Jamaica with widespread destruction
Grenada's PM has called the hurricane "Armageddon-like" as it wreaks havoc across the Caribbean with several people reported to have been killed.
The Caribbean island nation of Jamaica on Wednesday was facing the brunt of hurricane Beryl, classified as a powerful 'Category 4' storm. So far it has killed at least seven people, flattened numerous homes and destroyed crops on smaller islands as it has churned through the eastern Caribbean.
Wind-whipped rain pounded the island for hours as residents heeded authorities' call to shelter until the storm had passed.
Mexico braces for storm
Mexico's Navy patrolled areas like Tulum telling tourists in Spanish and English to prepare for the storm's arrival.
As of late Wednesday, Beryl was forecasted to make landfall in a sparsely populated area of lagoons and mangroves south of Tulum in the early hours of Friday, likely as a weakened Category 2 storm.
That changed when it was expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and restrengthen over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, making a second strike on Mexico's northeast coast near the Texas border.
"We will have intense rains and wind gusts" from Thursday, Civil Protection national coordinator Laura Velazquez said, announcing the deployment of hundreds of military personnel, marines and electricity workers in anticipation of damage.
Beryl's widespread destruction
"Beryl has also affected the Cayman Islands and is expected to spin up to even higher speeds by Wednesday night and Thursday," the NHC said in an advisory.
Local authorities have issued hurricane warnings as the rapidly moving hurricane has felled power lines and unleashed flash floods across smaller islands.
Haiti's capital Port-au-Prince — currently in the grip of gang violence and experiencing an ongoing humanitarian crisis — also saw strong winds on Tuesday afternoon.
The new Haitian Prime Minister Garry Conille has warned residents to take precautions and stay alert.
Grenada's PM has called the hurricane "Armageddon-like" as it wreaks havoc across the Caribbean with several people reported to have been killed.
Hurricane Beryl rips through Caribbean
Though slightly weakened, a destructive Hurricane Beryl is still on its way through the Caribbean and is now heading for Jamaica. Devastating winds and flooding have smashed houses and ships, killing at least six people
Though slightly weakened, a destructive Hurricane Beryl is still on its way through the Caribbean and is now heading for Jamaica. Devastating winds and flooding have smashed houses and ships, killing at least six people
.Image: Ricardo Mazalan/AP Photo/picture alliance
Wind-whipped rain pounded the island for hours
Marco Bello/REUTERS
The Caribbean island nation of Jamaica on Wednesday was facing the brunt of hurricane Beryl, classified as a powerful 'Category 4' storm. So far it has killed at least seven people, flattened numerous homes and destroyed crops on smaller islands as it has churned through the eastern Caribbean.
Wind-whipped rain pounded the island for hours as residents heeded authorities' call to shelter until the storm had passed.
Power issues in Kingston
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Beryl's eyewall was "brushing the south coast of Jamaica." The eyewall is where the most damaging winds and intense rainfall from a storm is found.
Power was knocked out in much of Kingston, the Jamaican capital.
Prime Minister Andrew Holness said on Wednesday afternoon that nearly 500 people were placed in shelters. By evening, he said that Jamaica had not seen the "worst of what could possibly happen."
Several roadways in Jamaica's interior regions were impacted by fallen trees and utility poles, while some communities in the northern section were without electricity, the government's information service reported.
"We can do as much as we can do, as humanly possible, and we leave the rest in the hands of God," Holness said.
Jamaica had announced a state of emergency and was declared a disaster zone for the next seven days, in anticipation.
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Beryl's eyewall was "brushing the south coast of Jamaica." The eyewall is where the most damaging winds and intense rainfall from a storm is found.
Power was knocked out in much of Kingston, the Jamaican capital.
Prime Minister Andrew Holness said on Wednesday afternoon that nearly 500 people were placed in shelters. By evening, he said that Jamaica had not seen the "worst of what could possibly happen."
Several roadways in Jamaica's interior regions were impacted by fallen trees and utility poles, while some communities in the northern section were without electricity, the government's information service reported.
"We can do as much as we can do, as humanly possible, and we leave the rest in the hands of God," Holness said.
Jamaica had announced a state of emergency and was declared a disaster zone for the next seven days, in anticipation.
Several roadways in the interior settlements of Jamaica were impacted by the storm
Image: Marco Bello/REUTERS
Mexico braces for storm
Mexico's Navy patrolled areas like Tulum telling tourists in Spanish and English to prepare for the storm's arrival.
As of late Wednesday, Beryl was forecasted to make landfall in a sparsely populated area of lagoons and mangroves south of Tulum in the early hours of Friday, likely as a weakened Category 2 storm.
That changed when it was expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and restrengthen over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, making a second strike on Mexico's northeast coast near the Texas border.
"We will have intense rains and wind gusts" from Thursday, Civil Protection national coordinator Laura Velazquez said, announcing the deployment of hundreds of military personnel, marines and electricity workers in anticipation of damage.
Beryl's widespread destruction
"Beryl has also affected the Cayman Islands and is expected to spin up to even higher speeds by Wednesday night and Thursday," the NHC said in an advisory.
Local authorities have issued hurricane warnings as the rapidly moving hurricane has felled power lines and unleashed flash floods across smaller islands.
Haiti's capital Port-au-Prince — currently in the grip of gang violence and experiencing an ongoing humanitarian crisis — also saw strong winds on Tuesday afternoon.
The new Haitian Prime Minister Garry Conille has warned residents to take precautions and stay alert.
Grenada's PM calls it 'Armageddon-like'
Meanwhile other countries in the Carribean, which have already faced the wrath of Beryl, took stock of the situation.
Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, said in a radio interview that the country's Union Island was "flattened" by Beryl. "Everybody is homeless ... It is going to be a Herculean effort to rebuild."
"90% of homes had been severely damaged or destroyed on one island in the Grenadines archipelago, Union Island," Prime Minister Gonsalves added. He confirmed one death and said more fatalities could be confirmed in the coming days.
The situation is "Armageddon-like," Grenada's Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said in a video briefing on Tuesday. He stressed that Carriacou and Petite Martinique, two of the three islands that make up the country, were badly affected by the natural disaster.
"There is no power. There is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings," he said, citing impassable roads due to downed power lines and destroyed fuel stations crimping supplies.
Beryl, the first to reach Category 4 in June
Scientists have said that Beryl's arrival has come earlier than is normally the case for such powerful storms. Given how the storm is rapidly strengthening, human-caused climate change might be the culprit, scientists argue.
The weather system is this year's first Atlantic hurricane and the earliest storm on record to reach the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
"The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane's maximum sustained wind speed. This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surges, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes" the Central Pacific Hurricane Center reported.
sp, mk/sms, jsi (AP, AFP, dpa, Reuters)
Meanwhile other countries in the Carribean, which have already faced the wrath of Beryl, took stock of the situation.
Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, said in a radio interview that the country's Union Island was "flattened" by Beryl. "Everybody is homeless ... It is going to be a Herculean effort to rebuild."
"90% of homes had been severely damaged or destroyed on one island in the Grenadines archipelago, Union Island," Prime Minister Gonsalves added. He confirmed one death and said more fatalities could be confirmed in the coming days.
The situation is "Armageddon-like," Grenada's Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said in a video briefing on Tuesday. He stressed that Carriacou and Petite Martinique, two of the three islands that make up the country, were badly affected by the natural disaster.
"There is no power. There is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings," he said, citing impassable roads due to downed power lines and destroyed fuel stations crimping supplies.
Beryl, the first to reach Category 4 in June
Scientists have said that Beryl's arrival has come earlier than is normally the case for such powerful storms. Given how the storm is rapidly strengthening, human-caused climate change might be the culprit, scientists argue.
The weather system is this year's first Atlantic hurricane and the earliest storm on record to reach the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
"The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane's maximum sustained wind speed. This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surges, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes" the Central Pacific Hurricane Center reported.
sp, mk/sms, jsi (AP, AFP, dpa, Reuters)
Beryl foreshadows future hurricanes, says UN weather agency
Geneva (AFP) – The World Meteorological Organization, which is tracking Hurricane Beryl's deadly course through the Caribbean, told AFP that more storms with its hallmarks could be expected in the future.
Issued on: 04/07/2024
Geneva (AFP) – The World Meteorological Organization, which is tracking Hurricane Beryl's deadly course through the Caribbean, told AFP that more storms with its hallmarks could be expected in the future.
Issued on: 04/07/2024
Anne-Claire Fontan, scientific officer at the WMO's tropical cyclone programme, said that Beryl signals a very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024
© Jose ROMERO / NOAA/RAMMB/AFP
The WMO, the United Nations' weather and climate agency, said the record-breaking tropical cyclone intensified rapidly, picking up energy over a warmer Atlantic Ocean and developing into a system with lots of heavy rain.
Anne-Claire Fontan, scientific officer at the WMO's tropical cyclone programme, said that Beryl signals a very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.
How did Beryl develop?
"It developed quite quickly in an area which was unusual for this time of year.
"It reached category 4 in June; that was the earliest we've ever seen. It reached category 5 quickly afterwards, so there is a very rapid intensification.
"It reached category 5 very early in the season. It's really very unusual. Hurricane Beryl really broke records.
"For more than a year, there has been a significant positive anomaly of hot water in this area.
"So that's a lot of energy for cyclones, since they feed on the energy of the ocean.
"With such a powerful system, this early in the hurricane season, it suggests... a very active season for 2024."
Where will Beryl go next?
"Beryl will head towards the Yucatan peninsula.
"We are expecting violent winds even if Beryl is expected to decrease in intensity.
"And then it's expected to come out into the Gulf of Mexico.
"There is a little more uncertainty on its trajectory after passing over the Yucatan, recognising that when a hurricane is cut off from... the ocean... it will probably weaken enormously.
"By returning to warm waters, it could intensify. So this is where there is uncertainty... It remains to be seen whether it will be Mexico or Texas (afterwards)."
How will climate change affect hurricanes in future?
"Beryl is an illustration of what we can expect in the future: systems which intensify rapidly with a lot of energy at the ocean level, therefore category 5 systems with a lot of rain.
"A warmer world with global warming does not necessarily mean more tropical cyclones... in terms of frequency.
"(But) we expect a shift towards much more powerful systems -- so with much higher winds.
"Another factor is that in a warmer atmosphere that is capable of retaining more moisture, there will be increased rain associated with tropical cyclones."
What will their impact be?
"The categorisation of hurricanes relies on wind speeds, but the... dangers (are heavily linked to) rain, with all the hazards it brings, in the form of mudslides, flash floods. All of that will also increase.
"The sea level is rising. Tropical cyclones are associated with storm surges... which can cause catastrophic flooding when they make landfall, depending on the layout of the coast.
"So if the storm surges arrive with an already increased sea level, you can clearly see the flooding this can also cause.
"We have a huge population living near the coasts worldwide. So it will clearly be a problem to manage the populations at the coast."
A longer hurricane season?
"When it comes to what will happen to tropical cyclones in a warming world, in terms of a longer season, there is no information at the global level.
"On the other hand, studies have been carried out at the regional level... which show that the season may be extended."
Are systems geared to track such cyclones?
"Trajectory-level tropical cyclone forecasts have improved significantly.
"There is room for improvement in terms of intensity forecasting, and in particular rapid intensification.
"Rapid intensifications are not yet well understood by digital weather forecast models. The scientific community is constantly working on this."
How should vulnerable countries prepare?
"It is very important that all countries do hurricane preparedness, in other words that they sensitise their population to the dangers presented by tropical cyclones, (explaining) how they should react depending on the degree of danger.
"Preparing really means systematically educating the population in advance to know how to act, to prepare their house, then the family; knowing where the shelters are."
© 2024 AFP
The WMO, the United Nations' weather and climate agency, said the record-breaking tropical cyclone intensified rapidly, picking up energy over a warmer Atlantic Ocean and developing into a system with lots of heavy rain.
Anne-Claire Fontan, scientific officer at the WMO's tropical cyclone programme, said that Beryl signals a very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.
How did Beryl develop?
"It developed quite quickly in an area which was unusual for this time of year.
"It reached category 4 in June; that was the earliest we've ever seen. It reached category 5 quickly afterwards, so there is a very rapid intensification.
"It reached category 5 very early in the season. It's really very unusual. Hurricane Beryl really broke records.
"For more than a year, there has been a significant positive anomaly of hot water in this area.
"So that's a lot of energy for cyclones, since they feed on the energy of the ocean.
"With such a powerful system, this early in the hurricane season, it suggests... a very active season for 2024."
Where will Beryl go next?
"Beryl will head towards the Yucatan peninsula.
"We are expecting violent winds even if Beryl is expected to decrease in intensity.
"And then it's expected to come out into the Gulf of Mexico.
"There is a little more uncertainty on its trajectory after passing over the Yucatan, recognising that when a hurricane is cut off from... the ocean... it will probably weaken enormously.
"By returning to warm waters, it could intensify. So this is where there is uncertainty... It remains to be seen whether it will be Mexico or Texas (afterwards)."
How will climate change affect hurricanes in future?
"Beryl is an illustration of what we can expect in the future: systems which intensify rapidly with a lot of energy at the ocean level, therefore category 5 systems with a lot of rain.
"A warmer world with global warming does not necessarily mean more tropical cyclones... in terms of frequency.
"(But) we expect a shift towards much more powerful systems -- so with much higher winds.
"Another factor is that in a warmer atmosphere that is capable of retaining more moisture, there will be increased rain associated with tropical cyclones."
What will their impact be?
"The categorisation of hurricanes relies on wind speeds, but the... dangers (are heavily linked to) rain, with all the hazards it brings, in the form of mudslides, flash floods. All of that will also increase.
"The sea level is rising. Tropical cyclones are associated with storm surges... which can cause catastrophic flooding when they make landfall, depending on the layout of the coast.
"So if the storm surges arrive with an already increased sea level, you can clearly see the flooding this can also cause.
"We have a huge population living near the coasts worldwide. So it will clearly be a problem to manage the populations at the coast."
A longer hurricane season?
"When it comes to what will happen to tropical cyclones in a warming world, in terms of a longer season, there is no information at the global level.
"On the other hand, studies have been carried out at the regional level... which show that the season may be extended."
Are systems geared to track such cyclones?
"Trajectory-level tropical cyclone forecasts have improved significantly.
"There is room for improvement in terms of intensity forecasting, and in particular rapid intensification.
"Rapid intensifications are not yet well understood by digital weather forecast models. The scientific community is constantly working on this."
How should vulnerable countries prepare?
"It is very important that all countries do hurricane preparedness, in other words that they sensitise their population to the dangers presented by tropical cyclones, (explaining) how they should react depending on the degree of danger.
"Preparing really means systematically educating the population in advance to know how to act, to prepare their house, then the family; knowing where the shelters are."
© 2024 AFP
Why are Southeast Asian countries looking to join BRICS?
Emmy Sasipornkarn
Malaysia and Thailand are the latest nations in Southeast Asia to express interest in joining the expanded BRICS group of emerging economies.
Greater economic opportunities
Last year, BRICS — an acronym that was originally used to refer to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — decided to expand its membership, inviting Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join the bloc.
The name for the expanded group has not yet been officially announced, but it could be called "BRICS+."
Combined, its members account for about 45% of the world's population — around 3.5 billion people.
Their economies are worth around $30 trillion (€28 trillion) — about 28% of the global economy, according to World Bank data.
The bloc "can help Malaysia's digital economy grow faster by allowing it to integrate with countries that have strong digital markets and also take advantage of best practices from other members," Rahul Mishra, associate professor at the Center for Indo-Pacific Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, told DW.
"Thailand would also be able to draw investments in important industries including services, manufacturing, and agriculture," he added.
Nearly three-quarters of the survey's respondents said ASEAN should favor China over the US if the bloc were forced to align with one of the two rival superpowers.
In June, during the three-day visit of Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Malaysia, Anwar criticized "the incessant propaganda that we should cast aspersions and fear the dominance of China economically, militarily, technologically."
"We do not. We in Malaysia, having a neutral stance, have the resolve to work with all countries and with China," he added.
Will other ASEAN nations follow?
Malaysia and Thailand are not the only countries in Southeast Asia interested in joining BRICS.
In May, Pham Thu Hang, Vietnam's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told a press briefing in Hanoi that "like many countries around the world, we are closely monitoring the process of BRICS membership expansion."
Mishra believes Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia "could be the potential applicants" as they already have good ties with China, India, and Russia — all key players in BRICS.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru
Emmy Sasipornkarn
Emmy Sasipornkarn
Malaysia and Thailand are the latest nations in Southeast Asia to express interest in joining the expanded BRICS group of emerging economies.
Last year, BRICS decided to expand its membership, inviting Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join the bloc
Image: Sergei Bobylev/TASS/dpa/picture alliance
BRICS is attracting Southeast Asian countries, with Thailand and Malaysia being the latest to express their interest in joining the bloc.
Last month, Thailand submitted a membership request, while Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said in an interview with Chinese news portal Guancha that his country would soon begin formal procedures.
"Being a member of BRICS would open up trade and investment opportunities, so the question is 'why not?'" Piti Srisangam, the executive director of the ASEAN Foundation, told DW.
"The bloc has members from all over the world, but none from Southeast Asia yet," he added.
According to James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, "both Thailand and Malaysia are seen as middle powers."
"It's better for them to join groups like BRICS so that they will have a larger voice in the international arena. But the major benefit will be trade," he added.
BRICS is attracting Southeast Asian countries, with Thailand and Malaysia being the latest to express their interest in joining the bloc.
Last month, Thailand submitted a membership request, while Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said in an interview with Chinese news portal Guancha that his country would soon begin formal procedures.
"Being a member of BRICS would open up trade and investment opportunities, so the question is 'why not?'" Piti Srisangam, the executive director of the ASEAN Foundation, told DW.
"The bloc has members from all over the world, but none from Southeast Asia yet," he added.
According to James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, "both Thailand and Malaysia are seen as middle powers."
"It's better for them to join groups like BRICS so that they will have a larger voice in the international arena. But the major benefit will be trade," he added.
Greater economic opportunities
Last year, BRICS — an acronym that was originally used to refer to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — decided to expand its membership, inviting Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join the bloc.
The name for the expanded group has not yet been officially announced, but it could be called "BRICS+."
Combined, its members account for about 45% of the world's population — around 3.5 billion people.
Their economies are worth around $30 trillion (€28 trillion) — about 28% of the global economy, according to World Bank data.
The bloc "can help Malaysia's digital economy grow faster by allowing it to integrate with countries that have strong digital markets and also take advantage of best practices from other members," Rahul Mishra, associate professor at the Center for Indo-Pacific Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, told DW.
"Thailand would also be able to draw investments in important industries including services, manufacturing, and agriculture," he added.
Experts believe joining BRICS would help Malaysia's transforming economy grow faster
Image: AP
Chin believes the trade ties that Malaysia and Thailand already have with China have influenced their decisions to join BRICS.
China has been Malaysia's largest trading partner for the past 15 years and Thailand's biggest for 11 years, according to official data.
Both these Southeast Asian nations becoming BRICS members "will enhance their relationship with China," Chin told DW.
Not taking sides
Last month, Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa insisted that Bangkok did not view joining BRICS as an act of "choosing sides," or as a way to counterbalance any other bloc.
"Thailand is unique in that we are friends with every country and enemies to none. We can act as a bridge between developing countries and BRICS members," Maris said.
Apart from BRICS, Thailand has also applied to join the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which has 38 mostly Western members.
"Small and middle powers do not have many options," Piti said. "What Thailand is doing is a balancing act — one foot with the Western liberal democracy and the other foot with the emerging economies."
In Malaysia, public sentiment is currently more in favor of China, the world's second-largest economy after the United States, according to a recent survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singaporean think tank.
Chin believes the trade ties that Malaysia and Thailand already have with China have influenced their decisions to join BRICS.
China has been Malaysia's largest trading partner for the past 15 years and Thailand's biggest for 11 years, according to official data.
Both these Southeast Asian nations becoming BRICS members "will enhance their relationship with China," Chin told DW.
Not taking sides
Last month, Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa insisted that Bangkok did not view joining BRICS as an act of "choosing sides," or as a way to counterbalance any other bloc.
"Thailand is unique in that we are friends with every country and enemies to none. We can act as a bridge between developing countries and BRICS members," Maris said.
Apart from BRICS, Thailand has also applied to join the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which has 38 mostly Western members.
"Small and middle powers do not have many options," Piti said. "What Thailand is doing is a balancing act — one foot with the Western liberal democracy and the other foot with the emerging economies."
In Malaysia, public sentiment is currently more in favor of China, the world's second-largest economy after the United States, according to a recent survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singaporean think tank.
Nearly three-quarters of the survey's respondents said ASEAN should favor China over the US if the bloc were forced to align with one of the two rival superpowers.
In June, during the three-day visit of Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Malaysia, Anwar criticized "the incessant propaganda that we should cast aspersions and fear the dominance of China economically, militarily, technologically."
"We do not. We in Malaysia, having a neutral stance, have the resolve to work with all countries and with China," he added.
Will other ASEAN nations follow?
Malaysia and Thailand are not the only countries in Southeast Asia interested in joining BRICS.
In May, Pham Thu Hang, Vietnam's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told a press briefing in Hanoi that "like many countries around the world, we are closely monitoring the process of BRICS membership expansion."
Mishra believes Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia "could be the potential applicants" as they already have good ties with China, India, and Russia — all key players in BRICS.
In 2023, South Africa hosted the annual BRICS summit in Johannesburg
Themba Hadebe/AP/picture alliance
"For Vietnam, which has been registering significant investments, it would be a good opportunity to further boost its trade beyond their traditional markets into the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa," he added.
Ahead of the BRICS summit in South Africa last year, there had been speculation that Indonesia — the only G20 country in Southeast Asia that hopes to complete the accession process with the OECD within three years — could become a BRICS member.
But ultimately, Indonesian President Joko Widodo told the public that his government had decided not to submit a letter of interest. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said at a press conference in January that Jakarta was still weighing the pros and cons of the BRICS membership.
"For Vietnam, which has been registering significant investments, it would be a good opportunity to further boost its trade beyond their traditional markets into the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa," he added.
Ahead of the BRICS summit in South Africa last year, there had been speculation that Indonesia — the only G20 country in Southeast Asia that hopes to complete the accession process with the OECD within three years — could become a BRICS member.
But ultimately, Indonesian President Joko Widodo told the public that his government had decided not to submit a letter of interest. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said at a press conference in January that Jakarta was still weighing the pros and cons of the BRICS membership.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru
Emmy Sasipornkarn
Multimedia journalist covering Thailand and Southeast Asia
German cannabis clubs face jungle of bureaucracy
Gradual legalization of cannabis
On April 1, in a first step, Germany legalized the consumption of small amounts of cannabis in public — with many caveats. Since then, people above the age of 18 have been allowed to carry 25 grams of cannabis, and enthusiasts have been allowed to grow three plants and store up to 50 grams of dried cannabis in their homes.
Geyer believes the new regulations have already had an effect. "Far fewer consumption-related criminal offenses have been documented," he said. "In previous years, someone was arrested every three minutes because they had a small amount of cannabis on them."
In general, said Geyer, German society is simply ready for the new freedoms. "The trend in recent years has been toward greater acceptance. What I've noticed in the last three months is that the average age of consumers who identify themselves as such has risen considerably. Consumers have become more middle class and older, more colorful and more peaceful," he said.
Opposition to legalization
Previously, owning even just 1 gram of hashish was illegal and punishable by law. Since the legalization, however, the German Police Union has said it fears new criminal groups might emerge in the new cannabis clubs.
Alexander Poitz, deputy head of the police union, told the daily Augsburger Allgemeine Zeitung: "We fear that criminals from the organized crime sector will use the possibility of growing clubs to expand criminal structures."
The center-right political opposition of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) are staunchly opposed to liberalization and have vowed to roll it back, should they again come to power in the 2025 general election.
The state of Bavaria, which is governed by the CSU party, has announced that it intends to take an extremely restrictive approach to the inspection of cultivation associations.
Since possession of small quantities has been permitted, according to Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann, the police have already had to investigate almost 3,000 cases of driving under the influence of cannabis. The public prosecutor's office has initiated criminal proceedings for serious cases in 180 of such traffic offenses.
"In our view, the legalization of cannabis is a major mistake in terms of safety and health policy," said Hermann.
Geyer maintains that the transparent regulations, including registration with the authorities, are intended to prevent criminal groups from developing in the new clubs. He also pointed to the experiences of many countries that have also gone down the path of cautious liberalization.
"We have followed the examples of Canada, the US, Uruguay, Liechtenstein, Malta, the Netherlands and Spain. We have a lot of regulations that are designed to prevent a mix of black and white market," he said.
Does cannabis cause psychotic disorders?
However, some experts continue to warn about the dangers of consumption. A Canadian study published in the specialist journal Psychological Medicine found that cannabis use is significantly associated with psychotic disorders during adolescence.
Studies suggest not only visual or acoustic hallucinations are possible in adolescents, according to Rainer Thomasius, a childhood addiction expert at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf. He said adolescents who use cannabis show a reduced ability to concentrate and learn, and their ability to feel joy or sadness is dulled. In addition, they say they often feel completely overwhelmed by environmental stimuli.
According to a 2021 survey, around 4.5 million people in Germany smoke cannabis at least once a year. Around a third have tried it at least once in their lives.
This article was originally written in German.
DW
July 3, 2024
Stage two of cannabis freedom has begun in Germany: cannabis clubs are now legal. The possession and use of small quantities of the drug has been permitted since early April, but the issue remains controversial.
Stage two of cannabis freedom has begun in Germany: cannabis clubs are now legal. The possession and use of small quantities of the drug has been permitted since early April, but the issue remains controversial.
Since April 1, Germany has eased the rules surrounding cannabis consumption
Image: Annette Riedl/dpa/picture alliance
Since July 1, cannabis enthusiasts in Germany can get together and establish private clubs with up to 500 members to grow cannabis, distribute it among their members and consume it together.
However, as is so often the case in Germany, this new regulation comes with many details — and a lot of bureaucracy. Each member of the club may receive a maximum of 25 grams of cannabis (just under one ounce) on one day and a total of 50 grams per month.
It's as yet unclear which authority is supposed to be monitoring these clubs. In Berlin, for example, observers aren't sure how the city's responsible districts will handle the licensing process.
"The federal states are extremely ill-prepared for this," said Steffen Geyer, the head of the umbrella organization of German Cannabis Social Clubs. "There will certainly be a mid three-digit number of clubs applying for a license. How long this will take and how many of them will be successful is still impossible to predict," he said.
Since July 1, cannabis enthusiasts in Germany can get together and establish private clubs with up to 500 members to grow cannabis, distribute it among their members and consume it together.
However, as is so often the case in Germany, this new regulation comes with many details — and a lot of bureaucracy. Each member of the club may receive a maximum of 25 grams of cannabis (just under one ounce) on one day and a total of 50 grams per month.
It's as yet unclear which authority is supposed to be monitoring these clubs. In Berlin, for example, observers aren't sure how the city's responsible districts will handle the licensing process.
"The federal states are extremely ill-prepared for this," said Steffen Geyer, the head of the umbrella organization of German Cannabis Social Clubs. "There will certainly be a mid three-digit number of clubs applying for a license. How long this will take and how many of them will be successful is still impossible to predict," he said.
Gradual legalization of cannabis
On April 1, in a first step, Germany legalized the consumption of small amounts of cannabis in public — with many caveats. Since then, people above the age of 18 have been allowed to carry 25 grams of cannabis, and enthusiasts have been allowed to grow three plants and store up to 50 grams of dried cannabis in their homes.
Geyer believes the new regulations have already had an effect. "Far fewer consumption-related criminal offenses have been documented," he said. "In previous years, someone was arrested every three minutes because they had a small amount of cannabis on them."
In general, said Geyer, German society is simply ready for the new freedoms. "The trend in recent years has been toward greater acceptance. What I've noticed in the last three months is that the average age of consumers who identify themselves as such has risen considerably. Consumers have become more middle class and older, more colorful and more peaceful," he said.
Geyer has long advocated the decriminalization of cannabis consumption
Image: Leopold Achilles
"I see people over the age of 50 coming to the Hemp Museum almost every day. They are stocking up on hemp seeds and buying specialist literature for the first time in their lives," added Geyer, who is also one of the organizers of the private museum in Berlin.
"These are all people who wouldn't have thought of setting foot into the museum just one year ago, if only because they thought it was somehow disreputable to be associated with cannabis."
"I see people over the age of 50 coming to the Hemp Museum almost every day. They are stocking up on hemp seeds and buying specialist literature for the first time in their lives," added Geyer, who is also one of the organizers of the private museum in Berlin.
"These are all people who wouldn't have thought of setting foot into the museum just one year ago, if only because they thought it was somehow disreputable to be associated with cannabis."
Opposition to legalization
Previously, owning even just 1 gram of hashish was illegal and punishable by law. Since the legalization, however, the German Police Union has said it fears new criminal groups might emerge in the new cannabis clubs.
Alexander Poitz, deputy head of the police union, told the daily Augsburger Allgemeine Zeitung: "We fear that criminals from the organized crime sector will use the possibility of growing clubs to expand criminal structures."
The center-right political opposition of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) are staunchly opposed to liberalization and have vowed to roll it back, should they again come to power in the 2025 general election.
The state of Bavaria, which is governed by the CSU party, has announced that it intends to take an extremely restrictive approach to the inspection of cultivation associations.
Since possession of small quantities has been permitted, according to Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann, the police have already had to investigate almost 3,000 cases of driving under the influence of cannabis. The public prosecutor's office has initiated criminal proceedings for serious cases in 180 of such traffic offenses.
"In our view, the legalization of cannabis is a major mistake in terms of safety and health policy," said Hermann.
Geyer maintains that the transparent regulations, including registration with the authorities, are intended to prevent criminal groups from developing in the new clubs. He also pointed to the experiences of many countries that have also gone down the path of cautious liberalization.
"We have followed the examples of Canada, the US, Uruguay, Liechtenstein, Malta, the Netherlands and Spain. We have a lot of regulations that are designed to prevent a mix of black and white market," he said.
Does cannabis cause psychotic disorders?
However, some experts continue to warn about the dangers of consumption. A Canadian study published in the specialist journal Psychological Medicine found that cannabis use is significantly associated with psychotic disorders during adolescence.
Studies suggest not only visual or acoustic hallucinations are possible in adolescents, according to Rainer Thomasius, a childhood addiction expert at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf. He said adolescents who use cannabis show a reduced ability to concentrate and learn, and their ability to feel joy or sadness is dulled. In addition, they say they often feel completely overwhelmed by environmental stimuli.
According to a 2021 survey, around 4.5 million people in Germany smoke cannabis at least once a year. Around a third have tried it at least once in their lives.
This article was originally written in German.
WAR IS RAPE!
Mariel Müller | Martina Schwikowski
July 2, 2024
The conflict in Sudan has turned into the largest displacement crisis worldwide. Widespread sexual violence is reported by many women and children who have sought safety in neighboring Chad. DW spoke with rape survivors.
The conflict in Sudan has turned into the largest displacement crisis worldwide. Widespread sexual violence is reported by many women and children who have sought safety in neighboring Chad. DW spoke with rape survivors.
Many women report that suffer from sexual violence, forcing them flee to neighboring Chad
Gender-based violence along ethnic lines
The majority of people who have fled across the border from war-torn Sudan are now in camps in eastern Chad — in places such as Adre.
Halima is one of them. She believes that the RSF militia mainly raped her because she belongs to the Massalit ethic group; the Massalit were the majority population in the city of El Geneina — until the RSF brutally attacked its citizens last year.
The world's largest displacement crisis
In a report on gender-based violence published at the end of 2023, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reported that women and girls in Sudan had to bear the brunt of the consequences of the conflict there, including an "alarming" rise in levels of sexual violence.
Many of those seeking asylum elsewhere say they have experienced or witnessed harassment, abduction, rape, sexual assault, sexual exploitation and other forms of violence during their journeys to safety.
For over a year, the Sudanese Armed Forces have been fighting the RSF in a brutal battle for control of the country.
The conflict has forced millions of people to flee their homes since April 2023, pushing the number of displaced people to about 12 million by June 2024.
Escape to Chad — and beyond
Before the conflict began, Sudan was already experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis caused by long-term political instability and economic pressures in the country.
The war has only added to these conditions, leaving almost 25 million people — more than half of Sudan's population — in need, according to the IRC.
More than 600,000 people have crossed the border into Chad, which had already been hosting 400,000 Sudanese refugees prior to the outbreak of conflict.
This is why the IRC has also expanded critical services to support Sudanese refugees in neighboring countries beyond Chad, including Uganda, Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Human rights obligations ignored
Ali demands that the parties involved in the conflict uphold their obligations under international humanitarian law to protect civilian populations and infrastructure.
In order for the human rights situation to improve, he said, the aid workers providing assistance would also need to be granted safeguards.
"There is a need for the parties of conflict to go to the negotiation table and ensure that this crisis is brought to a halt," he said. "It is causing untold human suffering to the people of Sudan."
Despite the trauma, Hawa and Halima both hope to return to their previous lives; Hawa dreams of completing her studies in economics to work "as an accountant or as a business administrator."
Halima also wants to get her old life back. "If the situation improves, I want to go to university," she said. "I'm a midwife — but I want to become a doctor."
Image: DW
Halima (name changed) has lived in various camps for displaced people for as long as she can remember. Every time she thought she had found safety, another attack happened, displacing her over and over.
She told DW that the memories of being upended so frequently keep her up at night.
In June 2023, fighters belonging to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacked the area of El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur, where she lived with her family.
Halima heard the militants arrive on their motorbikes. "They found me in my room," she said. "Four of them threatened me with guns. One choked my neck and raped me."
She suffered multiple wounds but eventually managed to escape, crossing the border into Chad. She felt safe there — but could not find the medical help she needed so badly after her ordeal.
Many women and children in camps in Chad have spoken of the issue, as reports of sexual violence within camps have also been on the rise.
Halima (name changed) has lived in various camps for displaced people for as long as she can remember. Every time she thought she had found safety, another attack happened, displacing her over and over.
She told DW that the memories of being upended so frequently keep her up at night.
In June 2023, fighters belonging to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacked the area of El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur, where she lived with her family.
Halima heard the militants arrive on their motorbikes. "They found me in my room," she said. "Four of them threatened me with guns. One choked my neck and raped me."
She suffered multiple wounds but eventually managed to escape, crossing the border into Chad. She felt safe there — but could not find the medical help she needed so badly after her ordeal.
Many women and children in camps in Chad have spoken of the issue, as reports of sexual violence within camps have also been on the rise.
People line up to register for a potential food aid delivery at a camp for internally displaced persons in central SudanImage: Guy Peterson/AFP
Gender-based violence along ethnic lines
The majority of people who have fled across the border from war-torn Sudan are now in camps in eastern Chad — in places such as Adre.
Halima is one of them. She believes that the RSF militia mainly raped her because she belongs to the Massalit ethic group; the Massalit were the majority population in the city of El Geneina — until the RSF brutally attacked its citizens last year.
Women who fled the war in Sudan report rape and sexual violenceImage: MOHANED BELAL/AFP
Another young woman at the camp, Hadija (name changed), corroborates Halima's impression.
She remembers how her attacker asked about the tribe she belonged to. "I did not tell him I was Massalit," she told DW. "I said I belong to the Fur tribe."
He threatened to kill her if she was Massalit, adding that the Massalit would never own any land in Sudan in future.
Hawa (name changed) survived a similar attack in June 2023.
She told DW that an RSF fighter entered her home and shot her 20-year-old cousin. Then she heard how her mother and aunt were being beaten.
"He beat me, too, with a whip, a stick, a water container," she said. "He then threw me on the bed and raped me."
It was only days later that she was able to finally find a hospital; she needed stitches after the attack and still feels pain when she walks.
These survivors' stories are backed up by Human Rights Watch, which has documented numerous atrocities of a similar nature, warning of a potential genocide unfolding against the Massalit people in West Darfur.
The RSF did not respond to DW's requests for comment.
Another young woman at the camp, Hadija (name changed), corroborates Halima's impression.
She remembers how her attacker asked about the tribe she belonged to. "I did not tell him I was Massalit," she told DW. "I said I belong to the Fur tribe."
He threatened to kill her if she was Massalit, adding that the Massalit would never own any land in Sudan in future.
Hawa (name changed) survived a similar attack in June 2023.
She told DW that an RSF fighter entered her home and shot her 20-year-old cousin. Then she heard how her mother and aunt were being beaten.
"He beat me, too, with a whip, a stick, a water container," she said. "He then threw me on the bed and raped me."
It was only days later that she was able to finally find a hospital; she needed stitches after the attack and still feels pain when she walks.
These survivors' stories are backed up by Human Rights Watch, which has documented numerous atrocities of a similar nature, warning of a potential genocide unfolding against the Massalit people in West Darfur.
The RSF did not respond to DW's requests for comment.
A young Sudanese survivor of sexual violence in front of her shelter in Adre in ChadImage: Zohra Bensemra/REUTERS
The world's largest displacement crisis
In a report on gender-based violence published at the end of 2023, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reported that women and girls in Sudan had to bear the brunt of the consequences of the conflict there, including an "alarming" rise in levels of sexual violence.
Many of those seeking asylum elsewhere say they have experienced or witnessed harassment, abduction, rape, sexual assault, sexual exploitation and other forms of violence during their journeys to safety.
For over a year, the Sudanese Armed Forces have been fighting the RSF in a brutal battle for control of the country.
The conflict has forced millions of people to flee their homes since April 2023, pushing the number of displaced people to about 12 million by June 2024.
Each day, thousands of Sudanese attempt to leave West Darfur into Chad to escape war and violence in their home country
Image: Zohra Bensemra/REUTERS
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) reports that more than 2 million people have sought refuge in neighboring countries since the eruption of the conflict. But the vast majority of them — over 10 million people — remain within Sudan, representing the largest displacement crisis in the world.
Aid organizations highlight that there are massive funding shortages to address the unfolding situation in Sudan and throughout the region.
Increased rates of rape
Abdirahman Ali, the country director for Sudan at CARE International, has confirmed this fast increasing rate of gender-based violence reported across Sudan, particularly in the areas that are currently witnessing the most violence, such as Darfur, Khartoum, Al Jazirah State and other areas.
Ali told DW that, especially in refugee camps, the violence against women and girls continues, adding that the situation is only being exacerbated by difficulties in the delivery of emergency food assistance, clean water, health care and nutrition.
The biggest challenge, he said, is moving health and nutrition supplies across the border from Chad into Sudan for people who are internally displaced.
"There are many areas [where] we are unable to access or even provide assistance due to the ongoing conflict and restrictions that will not allow us as aid workers to reach the people in need," he said.
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) reports that more than 2 million people have sought refuge in neighboring countries since the eruption of the conflict. But the vast majority of them — over 10 million people — remain within Sudan, representing the largest displacement crisis in the world.
Aid organizations highlight that there are massive funding shortages to address the unfolding situation in Sudan and throughout the region.
Increased rates of rape
Abdirahman Ali, the country director for Sudan at CARE International, has confirmed this fast increasing rate of gender-based violence reported across Sudan, particularly in the areas that are currently witnessing the most violence, such as Darfur, Khartoum, Al Jazirah State and other areas.
Ali told DW that, especially in refugee camps, the violence against women and girls continues, adding that the situation is only being exacerbated by difficulties in the delivery of emergency food assistance, clean water, health care and nutrition.
The biggest challenge, he said, is moving health and nutrition supplies across the border from Chad into Sudan for people who are internally displaced.
"There are many areas [where] we are unable to access or even provide assistance due to the ongoing conflict and restrictions that will not allow us as aid workers to reach the people in need," he said.
Many babies die of malnutrition at the El Fasher camp in Northern Darfur
Image: Mohamed Zakaria/REUTERS
According to the IRC, 90% of the people crossing borders in the region in search of safety are women and children. One in five young children are experiencing acute malnutrition.
Psychological support for people affected by gender-based violence is also hard to come by, Ali said: "There are multiple displacements. Communities and internationally displaced persons are moving from one location to the other, complicating [efforts] to provide continuous support to this population."
According to the IRC, 90% of the people crossing borders in the region in search of safety are women and children. One in five young children are experiencing acute malnutrition.
Psychological support for people affected by gender-based violence is also hard to come by, Ali said: "There are multiple displacements. Communities and internationally displaced persons are moving from one location to the other, complicating [efforts] to provide continuous support to this population."
Escape to Chad — and beyond
Before the conflict began, Sudan was already experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis caused by long-term political instability and economic pressures in the country.
The war has only added to these conditions, leaving almost 25 million people — more than half of Sudan's population — in need, according to the IRC.
More than 600,000 people have crossed the border into Chad, which had already been hosting 400,000 Sudanese refugees prior to the outbreak of conflict.
This is why the IRC has also expanded critical services to support Sudanese refugees in neighboring countries beyond Chad, including Uganda, Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Aid organizations say they have difficulties providing nutrition and other supplies to internally displaced women in Sudan
Image: AFP
Human rights obligations ignored
Ali demands that the parties involved in the conflict uphold their obligations under international humanitarian law to protect civilian populations and infrastructure.
In order for the human rights situation to improve, he said, the aid workers providing assistance would also need to be granted safeguards.
"There is a need for the parties of conflict to go to the negotiation table and ensure that this crisis is brought to a halt," he said. "It is causing untold human suffering to the people of Sudan."
Despite the trauma, Hawa and Halima both hope to return to their previous lives; Hawa dreams of completing her studies in economics to work "as an accountant or as a business administrator."
Halima also wants to get her old life back. "If the situation improves, I want to go to university," she said. "I'm a midwife — but I want to become a doctor."
Edited by: Sertan Sanderson
Mariel Müller DW East Africa Bureau Chief
ISLAMIC FASCISM
Turkish goal celebration: Who are the Gray Wolves?July 3, 2024
Merih Demiral celebrated Turkey's winning goal at Euro 2024 with a so-called wolf salute, a symbol of the Gray Wolves. Who are these Turkish ultranationalists, and why are they under observation by German authorities?
Turkey's national football team was triumphant on Tuesday, defeating Austria in a Euro 2024 round of 16 match in Leipzig, Germany and qualifying for the quarterfinals. But defender Merih Demiral, who scored both of Turkey's goals in the 2-1 win, drew attention for non-sporting reasons when he celebrated his winning strike with a hand gesture associated with far-right, ultranationalist symbolism.
UEFA, European football's governing body, has opened an investigation into Demiral, who could face a suspension. This is because the so-called wolf salute — pinching thumb, middle and ring finger together to imitate the shape of a wolf's head — is the symbol of the Gray Wolves, an ultranationalist Turkish group also known as the Idealist Hearths or Ulku Ocaklari.
The gesture is legally prohibited in Austria but not in Germany, where a similar ban is being discussed.
Who are the Gray Wolves?
The symbol made headlines in Germany nearly a year ago after Mesut Özil, a former German national team star, caused a stir when a photo with his fitness coach revealed his tattoo of a howling wolf and three crescent moons — typical Gray Wolves symbols. The design was at the center of discussions in Germany, where he was born and raised in a Turkish immigrant family.
The animal is an important symbol for Turkish right-wing extremists. In mythology, a gray wolf saved the ancestors of the Turkish peoples from their enemies and helped them ascend as a great power. For many, the wolf therefore represents power. The wolf hand gesture also traces its meaning back to this myth.
The moon crescents trace their meaning back to the war flag of the Ottomans, which depicted three arranged in a triangle. Today, they form the party logo of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which has been the main ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for years.
Gray Wolf ideology
German authorities characterize the group's ideology as ultranationalist, anti-Semitic and racist. The group holds hostile views toward Kurdish, Armenian, Jewish and Christian people, and believes in the superiority of the Turkish nation. In the past, members of the Gray Wolves have committed numerous acts of violence, including murder, particularly in the 1970s.
According to Germany's domestic intelligence services, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), the aim of the Gray Wolves is to establish a homogeneous state of all Turkic peoples under Turkish leadership — from the Balkans to western China.
Merih Demiral celebrated Turkey's winning goal at Euro 2024 with a so-called wolf salute, a symbol of the Gray Wolves. Who are these Turkish ultranationalists, and why are they under observation by German authorities?
Turkey defender Merih Demiral made this contoversial gesture while celebrating his match-deciding goal
TRADITIONAL SIGN AGAINST THE EVIL EYE,AKA SATANS HORNS,AND OZZY OSBORNE FANS GESTURE
Turkey's Merih Demiral could face a ban for a gesture he made while celebrating a goal
Ebrahim Noroozi/AP Photo/picture alliance
Turkey's national football team was triumphant on Tuesday, defeating Austria in a Euro 2024 round of 16 match in Leipzig, Germany and qualifying for the quarterfinals. But defender Merih Demiral, who scored both of Turkey's goals in the 2-1 win, drew attention for non-sporting reasons when he celebrated his winning strike with a hand gesture associated with far-right, ultranationalist symbolism.
UEFA, European football's governing body, has opened an investigation into Demiral, who could face a suspension. This is because the so-called wolf salute — pinching thumb, middle and ring finger together to imitate the shape of a wolf's head — is the symbol of the Gray Wolves, an ultranationalist Turkish group also known as the Idealist Hearths or Ulku Ocaklari.
The gesture is legally prohibited in Austria but not in Germany, where a similar ban is being discussed.
Who are the Gray Wolves?
The symbol made headlines in Germany nearly a year ago after Mesut Özil, a former German national team star, caused a stir when a photo with his fitness coach revealed his tattoo of a howling wolf and three crescent moons — typical Gray Wolves symbols. The design was at the center of discussions in Germany, where he was born and raised in a Turkish immigrant family.
The animal is an important symbol for Turkish right-wing extremists. In mythology, a gray wolf saved the ancestors of the Turkish peoples from their enemies and helped them ascend as a great power. For many, the wolf therefore represents power. The wolf hand gesture also traces its meaning back to this myth.
The moon crescents trace their meaning back to the war flag of the Ottomans, which depicted three arranged in a triangle. Today, they form the party logo of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which has been the main ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for years.
Gray Wolf ideology
German authorities characterize the group's ideology as ultranationalist, anti-Semitic and racist. The group holds hostile views toward Kurdish, Armenian, Jewish and Christian people, and believes in the superiority of the Turkish nation. In the past, members of the Gray Wolves have committed numerous acts of violence, including murder, particularly in the 1970s.
According to Germany's domestic intelligence services, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), the aim of the Gray Wolves is to establish a homogeneous state of all Turkic peoples under Turkish leadership — from the Balkans to western China.
The logo of ultranationalist party MHP: three white crescents on a red background
Image: AP
There are two main currents within the Gray Wolves: the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Great Unity Party (BBP), the extremism researcher Kemal Bozay at the Cologne Center for Radicalization Research and Prevention finds.
Germany's BfV traces the origins of the far-right Gray Wolves organization back to the ultranationalist MHP.
Gray Wolves in Europe
Gray Wolves are organized throughout Europe. A regional umbrella organization, the Turkish Confederation in Europe, was founded in the German city of Frankfurt in 2007 to bundle the various European offshoots.
Across Europe, there have been repeated clashes involving Gray Wolves, particularly with Kurds. Austria prohibited Gray Wolves symbols in 2019 and France banned their offshoot in 2020. Later that same year, the German parliament resolved to consider a similar ban. So far, it has not come to fruition.
Security authorities in Germany believe there are some 12,500 Gray Wolves members in the country, around 10,500 of them organized in associations.
The association with the largest number of members is the "Türkisch Demokratischen Idealistenvereine in Deutschland" (Turkish Democratic Idealists Associations in Germany), known as ADÜTDF from the Turkish-language acronym. It represents the interests of the ultranationalist MHP, Erdogan's ally. With over 7,000 members in Germany, ADÜTDF is the largest known umbrella organization among the Gray Wolves. It is organized into 200 local organizations in 15 different regions of Germany.
The second-largest association is ATIB, the "Union der Türkisch-Islamischen Kulturvereine in Europa" (the Union of Turkish-Islamic Cultural Associations in Europe). According to the BfV, it has 2,500 members and is organized into 24 local chapters throughout Germany. It was founded in 1987 by a well-known Gray Wolves member, who is said to have provided the hitman's weapon and wages for the 1981 assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II.
Germany's third umbrella organization is the Federation of World Order in Europe (ANF). Nationwide, it has some 1,000 members in about 15 local chapters, according to German authorities. ANF represents the interests of the Islamic-ultranationalist Great Unity Party (BBP), which is also a member of Erdogan's electoral alliance. Numerous political murders in Turkey have been attributed to the BBP. Its members are also alleged to have been involved in the murder of the Armenian journalist Hrant Dink in Istanbul.
According to estimates from German authorities, there are around 2,000 unorganized members of the Gray Wolves movement. That includes individuals and members of smaller structures.
"They all adhere to the right-wing extremist Ulkucu ideology to varying degrees and express it predominantly on social media, where they openly express their mostly racist and antisemitic enemy stereotypes. Some individuals achieve considerable reach," the current report from the BfV states.
The unorganized Gray Wolves often display weapons and other threatening gestures, which is intended to project strength, superiority and a preparedness to fight. They also have shown a greater propensity for violence in recent years, especially during confrontations with political opponents or government critics at demonstrations and other events. They have also formed greaser-like gangs in recent years, but these didn't last long.
Gray Wolves dispute Israel's right to exist
After the October 7 attacks in Israel, unorganized groups associated with the Gray Wolves sided with Palestinians and Hamas, the militant group that led the attacks.
These groups have denied Israel's right to exist and justified the attacks by Hamas, which is considered a terror organization by the US, Germany, the EU and others. Turkey does not follow this designation.
Amid Israel's ongoing military campaign in the beleaguered Gaza Strip, which has led to looming famine and killed over 38,000 Palestinians, the groups have also called for a boycott of Israeli products, collected donations for Gaza, and participated in anti-Israel rallies.
This article was originally published in German on July 27, 2023 and was updated on July 3, 2024 after Turkey's quarterfinal victory against Austria at Euro 2024 in Germany.
There are two main currents within the Gray Wolves: the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Great Unity Party (BBP), the extremism researcher Kemal Bozay at the Cologne Center for Radicalization Research and Prevention finds.
Germany's BfV traces the origins of the far-right Gray Wolves organization back to the ultranationalist MHP.
Gray Wolves in Europe
Gray Wolves are organized throughout Europe. A regional umbrella organization, the Turkish Confederation in Europe, was founded in the German city of Frankfurt in 2007 to bundle the various European offshoots.
Across Europe, there have been repeated clashes involving Gray Wolves, particularly with Kurds. Austria prohibited Gray Wolves symbols in 2019 and France banned their offshoot in 2020. Later that same year, the German parliament resolved to consider a similar ban. So far, it has not come to fruition.
Security authorities in Germany believe there are some 12,500 Gray Wolves members in the country, around 10,500 of them organized in associations.
The association with the largest number of members is the "Türkisch Demokratischen Idealistenvereine in Deutschland" (Turkish Democratic Idealists Associations in Germany), known as ADÜTDF from the Turkish-language acronym. It represents the interests of the ultranationalist MHP, Erdogan's ally. With over 7,000 members in Germany, ADÜTDF is the largest known umbrella organization among the Gray Wolves. It is organized into 200 local organizations in 15 different regions of Germany.
The second-largest association is ATIB, the "Union der Türkisch-Islamischen Kulturvereine in Europa" (the Union of Turkish-Islamic Cultural Associations in Europe). According to the BfV, it has 2,500 members and is organized into 24 local chapters throughout Germany. It was founded in 1987 by a well-known Gray Wolves member, who is said to have provided the hitman's weapon and wages for the 1981 assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II.
The Gray Wolves are also known as the Idealist Hearths (Ulku Ocaklari)
Boris Roessler/dpa/picture-alliance
Germany's third umbrella organization is the Federation of World Order in Europe (ANF). Nationwide, it has some 1,000 members in about 15 local chapters, according to German authorities. ANF represents the interests of the Islamic-ultranationalist Great Unity Party (BBP), which is also a member of Erdogan's electoral alliance. Numerous political murders in Turkey have been attributed to the BBP. Its members are also alleged to have been involved in the murder of the Armenian journalist Hrant Dink in Istanbul.
According to estimates from German authorities, there are around 2,000 unorganized members of the Gray Wolves movement. That includes individuals and members of smaller structures.
"They all adhere to the right-wing extremist Ulkucu ideology to varying degrees and express it predominantly on social media, where they openly express their mostly racist and antisemitic enemy stereotypes. Some individuals achieve considerable reach," the current report from the BfV states.
The unorganized Gray Wolves often display weapons and other threatening gestures, which is intended to project strength, superiority and a preparedness to fight. They also have shown a greater propensity for violence in recent years, especially during confrontations with political opponents or government critics at demonstrations and other events. They have also formed greaser-like gangs in recent years, but these didn't last long.
Gray Wolves dispute Israel's right to exist
After the October 7 attacks in Israel, unorganized groups associated with the Gray Wolves sided with Palestinians and Hamas, the militant group that led the attacks.
These groups have denied Israel's right to exist and justified the attacks by Hamas, which is considered a terror organization by the US, Germany, the EU and others. Turkey does not follow this designation.
Amid Israel's ongoing military campaign in the beleaguered Gaza Strip, which has led to looming famine and killed over 38,000 Palestinians, the groups have also called for a boycott of Israeli products, collected donations for Gaza, and participated in anti-Israel rallies.
This article was originally published in German on July 27, 2023 and was updated on July 3, 2024 after Turkey's quarterfinal victory against Austria at Euro 2024 in Germany.
Norway: Man guilty of deadly Oslo LGBTQ shooting
PATRIARCHICAL ABRAHAMIC RELIGIONS
ARE ANTI WOMEN AND ANTI LGBTQ+
Zaniar Matapour will serve 30 years in prison after being convicted and sentenced for an attack before a 2022 Pride celebration in Oslo. He killed two people and seriously injured nine more
Conviction 'a great relief' — head of victim support
"This is a great relief," the head of the support group for survivors and victims' relatives, Espen Evjenth, told public broadcaster NRK.
Evjenth was herself struck by a bullet in the forehead at the London Pub.
"This verdict is an important step to establish a common understanding in our society about what happened."
Prosecutor Aud Kinsarvik Gravas called it "the right outcome" and "a historically severe punishment."
The court had been presented with extensive video material of the attack. Bystanders managed to overpower Matapour and he was then arrested.
Matapour had sworn allegiance to "Islamic State" — prosecutors
Matapour, who was born in Iran and immigrated to Norway as a child, had sworn allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS), prosecutors said.
During the course of the trial, both the prosecution and the defense agreed Matapour had fired into the crowd and there was no disputing that the attack had been motivated by terrorism.
Matapour's lawyer, Marius Dietrichson, however, sought an acquittal, saying his client had been provoked to carry out the attack by a Danish intelligence agent posing as a high-ranking member of the IS terror group.
The shooting shocked Norway, which has a relatively low crime rate but has experienced so-called lone wolf attacks in recent decades, including one of Europe's worst mass shootings at the hands of a right-wing extremist in 2011.
kb/sms (Reuters, AFP)
Two people died, nine suffered gunshot wounds when Zaniar Matapour opened fire into a crowd outside a bar in Oslo in 2022
Martin Solhaug Standa/NTB/REUTERS
A Norwegian court has found a man guilty of carrying out a deadly gun attack at a gay bar in Oslo in 2022. The shooting took place during the city's annual Pride celebrations.
Zanier Matapour killed two people and seriously injured nine others after opening fire into a crowd outside the London Pub, a popular gay bar in the Norwegian capital.
The Oslo District Court said Matapour, fired 10 rounds with a machine gun and eight shots with a handgun into the crowd.
A Norwegian court has found a man guilty of carrying out a deadly gun attack at a gay bar in Oslo in 2022. The shooting took place during the city's annual Pride celebrations.
Zanier Matapour killed two people and seriously injured nine others after opening fire into a crowd outside the London Pub, a popular gay bar in the Norwegian capital.
The Oslo District Court said Matapour, fired 10 rounds with a machine gun and eight shots with a handgun into the crowd.
Conviction 'a great relief' — head of victim support
"This is a great relief," the head of the support group for survivors and victims' relatives, Espen Evjenth, told public broadcaster NRK.
Evjenth was herself struck by a bullet in the forehead at the London Pub.
"This verdict is an important step to establish a common understanding in our society about what happened."
Prosecutor Aud Kinsarvik Gravas called it "the right outcome" and "a historically severe punishment."
The court had been presented with extensive video material of the attack. Bystanders managed to overpower Matapour and he was then arrested.
Matapour had sworn allegiance to "Islamic State" — prosecutors
Matapour, who was born in Iran and immigrated to Norway as a child, had sworn allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS), prosecutors said.
During the course of the trial, both the prosecution and the defense agreed Matapour had fired into the crowd and there was no disputing that the attack had been motivated by terrorism.
Matapour's lawyer, Marius Dietrichson, however, sought an acquittal, saying his client had been provoked to carry out the attack by a Danish intelligence agent posing as a high-ranking member of the IS terror group.
The shooting shocked Norway, which has a relatively low crime rate but has experienced so-called lone wolf attacks in recent decades, including one of Europe's worst mass shootings at the hands of a right-wing extremist in 2011.
kb/sms (Reuters, AFP)
Verdict due over deadly Oslo Pride attack
Oslo (AFP) – A Norwegian court is set to deliver its verdict Thursday on a shooter who killed two people hours before Oslo's 2022 Pride festival, shocking the placid country and leading to the cancellation of the parade.
Issued on: 04/07/202]
Zaniar Matapour has never revealed his motives
© Lise Åserud / NTB/AFP/File
Zaniar Matapour, who pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group, is accused of opening fire on June 25, 2022 outside two bars in central Oslo, including a famous gay club, just hours before the Pride Parade.
Nine other people were wounded.
Norway's public prosecutor has sought the maximum penalty of 30 years behind bars -- with possible extensions -- for the 45-year-old Norwegian of Iranian origin.
Matapour's verdict is expected around 1:00 pm (1100 GMT).
He is accused of an "aggravated act of terror".
Matapour, who was restrained by passersby after the shooting, has never revealed his motives. He has pleaded not guilty.
Psychiatric experts have been divided over his mental health, and thereby his legal responsibility, as the accused has previously been diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia.
But the public prosecutor considered him criminally responsible and said that he deliberately targeted the LGBTQ community.
During the trial, Matapour's lawyer accused an undercover agent with Norway's domestic security service of provoking the attack by encouraging his client to pledge allegiance to IS.
He pleaded for his client to be declared criminally irresponsible, which would lead to his mandatory transfer to a secure psychiatric hospital.
In June 2023, the intelligence agency apologised after a report it commissioned, with the chief of police concluding it could have prevented the attack.
On May 3, Pakistan extradited the suspected mastermind -- Arfan Bhatti, a 46-year-old who lived in Norway.
Bhatti left Norway for Pakistan before Matapour carried out the shooting.
Bhatti, an alleged "accomplice to an aggravated act of terror", has denied any involvement and opposed his extradition.
He will be tried at a later date.
Oslo's Pride festival, scheduled to take place a few hours after the shooting, was eventually cancelled.
© 2024 AFP
Zaniar Matapour, who pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group, is accused of opening fire on June 25, 2022 outside two bars in central Oslo, including a famous gay club, just hours before the Pride Parade.
Nine other people were wounded.
Norway's public prosecutor has sought the maximum penalty of 30 years behind bars -- with possible extensions -- for the 45-year-old Norwegian of Iranian origin.
Matapour's verdict is expected around 1:00 pm (1100 GMT).
He is accused of an "aggravated act of terror".
Matapour, who was restrained by passersby after the shooting, has never revealed his motives. He has pleaded not guilty.
Psychiatric experts have been divided over his mental health, and thereby his legal responsibility, as the accused has previously been diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia.
But the public prosecutor considered him criminally responsible and said that he deliberately targeted the LGBTQ community.
During the trial, Matapour's lawyer accused an undercover agent with Norway's domestic security service of provoking the attack by encouraging his client to pledge allegiance to IS.
He pleaded for his client to be declared criminally irresponsible, which would lead to his mandatory transfer to a secure psychiatric hospital.
In June 2023, the intelligence agency apologised after a report it commissioned, with the chief of police concluding it could have prevented the attack.
On May 3, Pakistan extradited the suspected mastermind -- Arfan Bhatti, a 46-year-old who lived in Norway.
Bhatti left Norway for Pakistan before Matapour carried out the shooting.
Bhatti, an alleged "accomplice to an aggravated act of terror", has denied any involvement and opposed his extradition.
He will be tried at a later date.
Oslo's Pride festival, scheduled to take place a few hours after the shooting, was eventually cancelled.
© 2024 AFP
Germany: Far-right AfD's donation account shut down
Omas gegen Rechts is a civil society platform that was founded on Facebook in November 2017 by Monika Salzer. They operate throughout Germany and their social media accounts on TikTok and Instagram have accumulated tens and thousands of followers.
The German news agency DPA reported that transfers to the bank were still possible amid a transition period during which the account would still be accessible.
AfD's rise met with opposition
Having a far-right party like the AfD as a client was guided by the "principle of political neutrality," the German bank said earlier this year.
According to the bank, It follows the applicable laws with regard to the equal treatment of all bank customers.
This "also applies to political parties that are democratically legitimized in liberal elections and represented in German parliaments," a bank official said.
The AfD has risen to its highest level of support in the polls, especially in Germany's eastern states. In last month's European Parliament elections, it came out as the single largest party in Germany, making considerable gains across almost all age groups.
Amid a fear of a resurgent far right, thousands of people have come out in protest against the party. Groups like Omas gegen Rechts have been in frequent opposition.
Earlier this year, The Munich Administrative Court in South Germany allowed the Bavarian intelligence agency to monitor the regional association of the AfD as a suspected extremist group.
The party did not immediately comment on the account closure.
sp,ab/rmt (dpa, DW sources)
The Alternative for Germany must now look for a new banking provider, as Grannies against the Right stir up trouble for the far-right party.
Grannies against the Far-right collected more than 33,000 signatures for their petition to shut down the AfD account
Michael Bihlmayer/CHROMORANGE/picture alliance
The donation account for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party was shut down on Wednesday after activists gathered names on a petition in opposition to the populist group, media reported on Thursday.
The civil initiative Omas gegen Rechts, which translates as Grannies against the Far-right, collected more than 33,000 signatures in an online petition, which they then handed over to the Berliner Volksbank and called for the bank to close the party's donation account.
The German newspaper TAZ first reported on the account closure on Wednesday, with events later being confirmed by other outlets on Thursday.
Bank confirms receipt of petition
The bank confirmed that it had met the activists and received their petition, but would not comment on the status of the account due to secrecy rules.
However, a link on the AfD's website that directed supporters to donate money to the bank account had disappeared by Thursday. Donations via other methods were still possible.
The Berliner Volksbank also refused to deny the closure of the account.
"Since we've handed over the petition, we assume that there are no longer any business relations between the AfD and the Berliner Volksbank," Omas gegen Rechts said on social media.
In their post, they also thanked the Berlin-based bank and the petitioners for their "victory".
The donation account for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party was shut down on Wednesday after activists gathered names on a petition in opposition to the populist group, media reported on Thursday.
The civil initiative Omas gegen Rechts, which translates as Grannies against the Far-right, collected more than 33,000 signatures in an online petition, which they then handed over to the Berliner Volksbank and called for the bank to close the party's donation account.
The German newspaper TAZ first reported on the account closure on Wednesday, with events later being confirmed by other outlets on Thursday.
Bank confirms receipt of petition
The bank confirmed that it had met the activists and received their petition, but would not comment on the status of the account due to secrecy rules.
However, a link on the AfD's website that directed supporters to donate money to the bank account had disappeared by Thursday. Donations via other methods were still possible.
The Berliner Volksbank also refused to deny the closure of the account.
"Since we've handed over the petition, we assume that there are no longer any business relations between the AfD and the Berliner Volksbank," Omas gegen Rechts said on social media.
In their post, they also thanked the Berlin-based bank and the petitioners for their "victory".
Omas gegen Rechts is a civil society platform that was founded on Facebook in November 2017 by Monika Salzer. They operate throughout Germany and their social media accounts on TikTok and Instagram have accumulated tens and thousands of followers.
The German news agency DPA reported that transfers to the bank were still possible amid a transition period during which the account would still be accessible.
AfD's rise met with opposition
Having a far-right party like the AfD as a client was guided by the "principle of political neutrality," the German bank said earlier this year.
According to the bank, It follows the applicable laws with regard to the equal treatment of all bank customers.
This "also applies to political parties that are democratically legitimized in liberal elections and represented in German parliaments," a bank official said.
The AfD has risen to its highest level of support in the polls, especially in Germany's eastern states. In last month's European Parliament elections, it came out as the single largest party in Germany, making considerable gains across almost all age groups.
Amid a fear of a resurgent far right, thousands of people have come out in protest against the party. Groups like Omas gegen Rechts have been in frequent opposition.
Earlier this year, The Munich Administrative Court in South Germany allowed the Bavarian intelligence agency to monitor the regional association of the AfD as a suspected extremist group.
The party did not immediately comment on the account closure.
sp,ab/rmt (dpa, DW sources)
FASCIST INTERNATIONALE
Right-wing parties in Brussels are regrouping after surging at the polls of the 2024 European Parliament elections. Some old alliances remain, some new ones are being forged, and there could be surprises on the horizon.
Geert Vanden Wijngaert/AP/picture alliance
Far-right parties made big gains in EU parliamentary elections this June, shifting the political balance at both the EU and the national levels across the bloc.
A victory by the far-right National Rally (RN) in France, for instance, sent shockwaves through the country, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call new national elections.
While the true strength of the RN within France's national parliament will not be clear until the second round of voting is completed on Sunday, right-wing parties in the European Parliament have begun to forge alliances for the upcoming legislative period — some old, others new.
The right-wing conservative ECR group is growing
To date, far-right, conservative-nationalist, right-wing populist and other parties on the right of the European political spectrum have essentially settled into two camps.
One is the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) parliamentary group, home to, among others, Poland's nationalist opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) and Italy's Brothers of Italy (FdI), which grew out of the country's post-fascist movement. Brothers of Italy leader and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni serves as president of the ECR party.
The right-wing conservative ECR has already laid out its priorities for the coming legislative period, namely "to ensure that the EU focuses on its core tasks," as well as "strongly opposing any move towards a supranational superstate."
On immigration, the ECR wants to do more to curb irregular migration as well as creating "regional disembarkation platforms outside the EU" to process asylum applications. At the same time, the group seeks to "tackle the root causes of migration."
In terms of the environment, the group wants to reverse existing agreements to phase out internal combustion vehicles and has openly questioned efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The ECR has clearly expressed support for further aid to Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression.
Thierry Chopin, a political analyst at the Jacques Delors Institute, a Paris think tank, believes that Meloni's more moderate approach, especially when it comes to Ukraine, is part of a political strategy.
According to the latest statistics, the ECR currently holds 84 seats in the European Parliament, making it the body's third-largest bloc. On Wednesday, the party used its inaugural meeting to distribute posts for the coming legislative period. It is also likely that the ECR will play a key role in reelecting Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission in two weeks.
Far-right parties made big gains in EU parliamentary elections this June, shifting the political balance at both the EU and the national levels across the bloc.
A victory by the far-right National Rally (RN) in France, for instance, sent shockwaves through the country, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call new national elections.
While the true strength of the RN within France's national parliament will not be clear until the second round of voting is completed on Sunday, right-wing parties in the European Parliament have begun to forge alliances for the upcoming legislative period — some old, others new.
The right-wing conservative ECR group is growing
To date, far-right, conservative-nationalist, right-wing populist and other parties on the right of the European political spectrum have essentially settled into two camps.
One is the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) parliamentary group, home to, among others, Poland's nationalist opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) and Italy's Brothers of Italy (FdI), which grew out of the country's post-fascist movement. Brothers of Italy leader and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni serves as president of the ECR party.
The right-wing conservative ECR has already laid out its priorities for the coming legislative period, namely "to ensure that the EU focuses on its core tasks," as well as "strongly opposing any move towards a supranational superstate."
On immigration, the ECR wants to do more to curb irregular migration as well as creating "regional disembarkation platforms outside the EU" to process asylum applications. At the same time, the group seeks to "tackle the root causes of migration."
In terms of the environment, the group wants to reverse existing agreements to phase out internal combustion vehicles and has openly questioned efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The ECR has clearly expressed support for further aid to Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression.
Thierry Chopin, a political analyst at the Jacques Delors Institute, a Paris think tank, believes that Meloni's more moderate approach, especially when it comes to Ukraine, is part of a political strategy.
According to the latest statistics, the ECR currently holds 84 seats in the European Parliament, making it the body's third-largest bloc. On Wednesday, the party used its inaugural meeting to distribute posts for the coming legislative period. It is also likely that the ECR will play a key role in reelecting Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission in two weeks.
What is the far-right ID group up to?
The second-largest right-wing group in the European Parliament is Identity and Democracy, or ID. Parties in the group include Italian Matteo Salvini's Lega and Marine Le Pen's RN from France. Just prior to the June EU vote, ID expelled the Alternative for Germany (AfD), parts of which German domestic security services have labeled right-wing extremist.
The AfD expulsion, as well as a meeting between Meloni and Le Pen, have fueled rumors of the formation of a far-right "super group," but that does not seem to be in the works at the moment. Political analyst Chopin said Meloni's and Le Pen's political programs were simply too far apart for that to be a possibility, especially when it came to their attitudes toward Russia.
While Meloni has clearly positioned herself on the side of Ukraine, that has not necessarily been the case with Le Pen. Chopin said RN traditionally aligned itself more closely with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nevertheless, the party has toned down its rhetoric in the wake of Putin's invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
Chopin said the issue would take on greater importance if RN populists emerged victorious in the second round of voting in French parliamentary elections on Sunday. That is because France's parliament has control of the country's budget and thus, over Ukraine aid. Although he was unsure what policies an RN-led parliament would pursue, Chopin said it could very well be problematic for Kyiv.
At the moment, however, the final makeup of the ID group in Brussels remains unclear. That is due in part to the formation of another new far-right group in the European Parliament, the so-called Patriots for Europe.
Patriots for Europe a new right-wing force?
Last Sunday, one day before his country took over the European Council's rotating presidency, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced the formation of a new right-wing alliance in the European Parliament. The bloc will be led by Orban, the head of the nationalist-conservative Fidesz party; his Czech counterpart Andrej Babis, former prime minister of the Czech Republic and head of the liberal-populist ANO (Yes) party; and Herbert Kickl, leader of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ).
In an online manifesto, the three parties emphasized their desire to create a "Europe of nations," noting that they do not want an EU superstate. Their program puts great emphasis on national sovereignty and the need for countries to be able to exercise veto rights. They also want to protect what they call "European identity, tradition and customs, the fruits of its Greco-Roman and Judeo-Christian heritage." Furthermore, the three called for a stop to "illegal migration to protect our cultural identity."
Orban regularly makes headlines in the EU for his use of Hungary's veto powers in the European Council, as has often been the case when it came to support for Ukraine. A vote in favor of opening EU accession talks with Kyiv, for example, was only made possible through the use of a procedural trick — with the vote taken after Orban agreed to temporarily leave the room.
According to media reports, Portugal's right-wing populist Chega party has also signaled interest in joining the bloc, and there has been speculation over the possibility of Salvini's Lega and Le Pen's RN joining — though both are currently still members of the ID Group. According to news agency DPA, Alice Weidel, co-chair of the now unaffiliated AfD, has said the German party will not join the group.
In order for the new group to attain the status of an official European Parliamentary bloc it must have members from at least seven EU states, though by now it will have likely already cleared another hurdle, that of having at least 23 members.
The final future makeup of the right-wing spectrum in Brussels still remains open, but should be clear by the time the European Parliament convenes for its constituent session on July 16.
This article was originally written in German.
ARYAN NATIONALISTS
Nik Martin1
After Moscow's tanks rolled into Ukraine, Russian oil exports to India soared. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares for talks with President Vladimir Putin, India wants to stay neutral and boost trade with Russia.
Putin sees India as a diplomatic and economic ally, but the Ukraine war has complicated ties
Alexandr Demyanchuk/SPUTNIK/AFP
India took a lot of flak in the West for increasing imports of Russian fossil fuels in the face of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The world's third-largest oil importer saw deliveries from Russia jump tenfold in 2022 and double again last year, thanks to heavy price discounts. India's coal imports from Russia rose threefold over the same two-year period.
Despite accusations of funding Putin's war machine, New Delhi has justified the increase by citing India's traditional "stable and friendly" ties with Moscow and its heavy reliance on imported oil.
As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week, Putin will be looking to further boost trade with the South Asian power to shore up Russia's commodity-dependent economy and lessen the impact of Western sanctions over the Ukraine war.
When announcing the talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that in addition to working together on global and regional security issues, there was "mutual political will" to boost trade and economic cooperation.
India, on the other hand, must tread a delicate path as it aims to maintain strong links with the West, seek new trade links with Moscow and retain a neutral position over the conflict.
DW looks at the current state of India-Russia trade ties and what the two leaders could agree on next.
India took a lot of flak in the West for increasing imports of Russian fossil fuels in the face of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The world's third-largest oil importer saw deliveries from Russia jump tenfold in 2022 and double again last year, thanks to heavy price discounts. India's coal imports from Russia rose threefold over the same two-year period.
Despite accusations of funding Putin's war machine, New Delhi has justified the increase by citing India's traditional "stable and friendly" ties with Moscow and its heavy reliance on imported oil.
As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week, Putin will be looking to further boost trade with the South Asian power to shore up Russia's commodity-dependent economy and lessen the impact of Western sanctions over the Ukraine war.
When announcing the talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that in addition to working together on global and regional security issues, there was "mutual political will" to boost trade and economic cooperation.
India, on the other hand, must tread a delicate path as it aims to maintain strong links with the West, seek new trade links with Moscow and retain a neutral position over the conflict.
DW looks at the current state of India-Russia trade ties and what the two leaders could agree on next.
How strong are India-Russia relations?
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and India built a strategic partnership for defense and trade that continued after the end of communism. In 2000, Putin, then Russia's prime minister, signed a new declaration of cooperation with New Delhi.
India is a major market for the Russian defense industry — until recently its largest. During the past two decades, Moscow supplied 65% of India's weapons purchases, totaling more than $60 billion (€55.8 billion), according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
After Russian forces invaded Ukraine, Moscow sought to deepen its relations with India and China as a counterweight to the West. The Kremlin offered New Delhi huge discounts on oil, coal and fertilizer deliveries to boost the country's finances to fight the war.
As a result, India emerged as a major export market for Russian fossil fuels in search of new destinations in the wake of Western sanctions. In April, for example, Russian crude oil deliveries to India surged to a new record of 2.1 million barrels per day (b/d), according to the financial analytics firm S&P Global.
Bilateral trade between the two countries reached a record high of nearly $65.7 billion last year, figures from India's Department of Commerce showed. Trade is, however, massively stacked in Russia's favor, with India importing $61.4 billion worth of goods, including oil, fertilizers, precious stones and metals.
"For long, we have looked at Russia from a political or security perspective," Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said at an industry conference in May. "As that country turns eastwards, fresh economic opportunities are presenting themselves ... the spike in our trade and new areas of cooperation should not be regarded as a temporary phenomenon."
What are New Delhi's concerns about ties with Moscow?
While the West limited its criticism of India over the cheap oil deal with Russia, New Dehli's historic reliance on Moscow for weapons is a major concern for the US and Europe.
"New Delhi has demonstrated a nuanced approach to navigating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, staying on good terms with Moscow and the West," Aleksei Zakharov, a researcher on Indian foreign policy at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), wrote in a paper last month.
Zakharov wrote of "structural challenges" that he said "appear to still prevent the two sides from reinvigorating the economic ties, adding that the defense cooperation between Russia and India is currently "in a state of limbo," partly as the Ukraine war and Western sanctions have hobbled Russia's arms sector.
India has jointly developed the Brahmos supersonic cruise missile with Russia
Gurinder Osan/AP/picture alliance
India had several negative experiences in earlier deals with Russia's arms industry. A 2004 deal to buy a Soviet-era aircraft carrier, upgraded and retrofitted by Russia, was criticized over long delays and a doubling of costs.
In 2013, the explosion and sinking of a Russian-built submarine, which killed 18 crew members, further pressured India's leaders on their defense cooperation with Moscow.
The Indian military is currently awaiting two of five S-400 air defense systems and Russian-made frigates that Russia agreed to supply as part of 2018 deals, local media reported in April.
While India remained the leading destination of arms transfers from Moscow between 2017 and 2022, Russia's share of defense exports to the South Asian country dropped from 65% to 36% during the same period, SIPRI data showed,
French and German arms suppliers have benefitted from New Delhi's change of strategy, amid reticence among Indian policymakers to break Western sanctions on Moscow by signing new deals with the Kremlin.
Is more trade between India and Russia in the cards?
Modi's visit to Moscow — his second overseas trip after reelection in June — is a sign of the importance India still places on relations with the Kremlin. As a growing world power, New Delhi is keen to prioritize its own strategic interests while balancing relations with the West, Russia and China.
While New Delhi has called for "dialogue and diplomacy" to end the Ukraine war, at the recent Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, India's representative did not sign a joint communique calling for Ukraine's territorial integrity to be respected in any peace agreement.
"On the surface, it may seem that India's neutrality [in the Ukraine war] has allowed the strengthening of bilateral ties with Moscow," said Zahkarov in his recent paper. "However, a closer look suggests that India has become more cautious in its interactions with Russia ... [so] maintaining dialogue and hedging bets will likely be more important for both sides than striking new deals."
Although new pacts to buy Russian weapons may be limited, Modi's "Made in India" initiative, which aims to promote the country as a manufacturing hub, could see Russia provide more raw materials and parts for domestic Indian arms production.
Russia is also keen to expand the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a road, sea and rail project that connects Russia to India via Iran. Russia shipped the first tranche of coal through the INSTC last month.
The project has been in the works for over two decades and due to the constraints that Russia is facing from Western sanctions, INSTC is now a key trade priority for the Kremlin.
Completion of another project that has taken on new urgency is the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor. First proposed in 2019, the sea route stretching 10,300 kilometers (5,600 nautical miles) from Russia's easternmost region could help secure flows of Russian energy and other raw materials to India.
The proposed corridor is expected to reduce shipping times from 40 to 24 days, compared with the existing route through the Suez Canal.
Edited by: Ashutosh Pandey