Boeing factory workers vote to

 reject contract and continue 

6-week strike

DAVID KOENIG and MANUEL VALDES

Updated Wed, October 23, 2024 

SEATTLE (AP) — Boeing factory workers voted Wednesday to reject the company’s latest contract offer and to continue a six-week strike that has halted production of the aerospace giant’s bestselling jetliners.

Local union leaders in Seattle said 64% of members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers who cast ballots voted against accepting the proposal.

“After 10 years of sacrifices, we still have ground to make up, and we’re hopeful to do so by resuming negotiations promptly,” Jon Holden, the head of the IAM District 751 union, said in a statement Wednesday evening. “This is workplace democracy — and also clear evidence that there are consequences when a company mistreats its workers year after year."

A spokesperson for Boeing said officials didn’t have a comment on the vote.

The labor standoff comes during an already challenging year for Boeing, which became the focus of multiple federal investigations after a door panel blew off a 737 Max plane during an Alaska Airlines flight in January.

The strike has deprived the company of much-needed cash that it gets from delivering new planes to airlines. On Wednesday, the company reported a third-quarter loss of more than $6 billion.

Union machinists assemble the 737 Max, Boeing’s best-selling airliner, along with the 777 or “triple-seven” jet and the 767 cargo plane at factories in Renton and Everett, Washington.

The offer rejected Wednesday included pay raises of 35% over four years. The version that union members rejected when they voted to strike last month featured a 25% increase over four years.

The union, which initially demanded 40% pay boosts over three years, said the annual raises in the revised offer would total 39.8%, when compounded.

Boeing has said that average annual pay for machinists is currently $75,608.

Boeing workers told Associated Press reporters that a sticking point was the company’s refusal to restore a traditional pension plan that was frozen a decade ago.

“The pension should have been the top priority. We all said that was our top priority, along with wage,” Larry Best, a customer-quality coordinator with 38 years at Boeing, said on a picket line outside a Boeing factory in Everett, Washington. “Now is the prime opportunity in a prime time to get our pension back, and we all need to stay out and dig our heels in.”

Theresa Pound, a 16-year Boeing veteran, also voted against the deal. She said the health plan has gotten worse, with higher premiums and more out-of-pocket expenses, and her expected pension benefits would not be enough, even when combined with a 401(k) retirement account.

“I have put more time in this place than I was ever required to. I have literally blood, sweat and tears from working at this company,” the 37-year-old said. “I’m looking at working until I’m 70 because I have this possibility that I might not get to retire based on what’s happening in the market.”

The strike, which began Sept. 13, has served as an early test for Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, who became chief executive in August.

In his first remarks to investors, Ortberg said earlier Wednesday that Boeing needs “a fundamental culture change,” and he laid out his plan to revive the aerospace giant after years of heavy losses and damage to its reputation.

Ortberg repeated in a message to employees and on the earnings call that he wants to “reset” management’s relationship with labor “so we don’t become so disconnected in the future.” He said company leaders need to spend more time on factory floors to know what is going on and “prevent the festering of issues and work better together to identify, fix, and understand root cause.”

Ortberg, a Boeing outsider who previously ran Rockwell Collins, a maker of avionics and flight controls for airline and military planes, said Boeing is at a crossroads.

“The trust in our company has eroded. We’re saddled with too much debt. We’ve had serious lapses in our performance across the company, which have disappointed many of our customers,” he said.

But Ortberg also highlighted the company’s strengths, including a backlog of airplane orders valued at a half-trillion dollars.

“It will take time to return Boeing to its former legacy, but with the right focus and culture, we can be an iconic company and aerospace leader once again,” he said.

In recent weeks, Ortberg announced large-scale layoffs — about 17,000 people — and a plan to raise enough cash to avoid a bankruptcy filing.

Boeing hasn’t had a profitable year since 2018, and Wednesday’s numbers represented the second-worst quarter in the manufacturer’s history. Boeing lost $6.17 billion in the period ended Sept. 30, with an adjusted loss of $10.44 per share. Analysts polled by Zacks Investment Research had expected a loss of $10.34 per share.

BOEING CEO

Revenue totaled $17.84 billion, matching Wall Street estimates.

The company burned nearly $2 billion in cash, in the quarter, weakening its balance sheet, which is loaded down with $58 billion in debt. Chief Financial Officer Brian West said the company will not generate positive cash flow until the second half of next year.

Shares of The Boeing Co. fell 2% in regular trading Wednesday.

Boeing’s fortunes soured after two of its 737 Max jetliners crashed in October 2018 and March 2019, killing 346 people. Safety concerns were renewed this January, when a panel blew off a Max during an Alaska Airlines flight.

Ortberg needs to convince federal regulators that Boeing is fixing its safety culture and is ready to boost production of the 737 Max — a crucial step to bring in much-needed cash. That can’t happen, however, until the striking workers return to their jobs.

Early in the strike, Boeing made what it termed its “best and final” offer. The proposal included pay raises of 30% over four years, and angered union leaders because the company announced it to the striking workers through the media and set a short ratification deadline.

Boeing backed down and gave the union more time. However, many workers maintained the offer still wasn’t good enough. The company withdrew the proposed contract on Oct. 9 after negotiations broke down, and the two sides announced the latest proposal on Saturday.

Charles Fromong, a mechanic who has worked at Boeing for 38 years, said Wednesday night after the results were announced that the company needs to take care of its workers.

“I feel sorry for the young people,” he said. “I’ve spent my life here and I’m getting ready to go, but they deserve a pension and I deserve an increase.”

The last Boeing strike, in 2008, lasted eight weeks and cost the company about $100 million daily in deferred revenue. A 1995 strike lasted 10 weeks.

___

Koenig reported from Dallas. Lindsey Wasson in Everett, Washington, contributed to this report.

Boeing workers reject the company's latest proposal, which included a 35% wage hike

Shubhangi Goel
Wed, October 23, 2024

Boeing workers just rejected a proposal with a 35% wage increase over four years.


The strike has halted most of Boeing's manufacturing for over five weeks.


Boeing's earnings missed analyst expectations by over 18% amid the ongoing strike.

Boeing machinists have rejected a new proposal that included a 35% wage increase over four years, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local 751 said Wednesday.

The strike has been going on for five weeks and has halted most of the plane maker's manufacturing.

Along with the wage hike, the new proposal raised a signing bonus from $3,000 to $7,000. It was rejected by 64% of union workers, according to the IAM.

"After 10 years of sacrifice, we still have ground to make up. We hope to resume negotiations promptly," the IAM said in a statement on X on Wednesday.

Boeing reported third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with a net loss of over $6 billion. This brings the company's total losses in 2024 to nearly $8 billion.

CEO Kelly Ortberg, who joined in August, addressed the stoppage on Wednesday's earnings call.

"First and foremost on everybody's mind today is ending the IAM strike. We've been feverishly working to find a solution that works for the company and meets our employees' needs," Ortberg said.

The strike, which started on September 13, began after workers rejected a proposal to raise pay by 25% over four years, demanding 40%. The company's second offer of 30% was withdrawn after talks broke down.

According to figures provided by the union and company, the average pay for Boeing machinists has risen about 15% over the past decade to $75,000. The cost of living in the US has risen 33% in the same period, according to government inflation data.

Analysts at Anderson Economic Group estimated that the first month of Boeing's 33,000-worker strike cost the company and workers $5 billion. The last strike, in 2008, shuttered plants for eight weeks and hit revenue by an estimated $100 million per day.

Boeing did not immediately respond to a request for comment, sent outside standard business hours.

 Business Insider

Boeing strike to continue after workers reject new contract

MAX ZAHN, JACK MOORE and AYESHA ALI
Wed, October 23, 2024 at 10:07 PM MDT·4 min read
33





Boeing machinists on Wednesday rejected a new contract proposal that would've ended a weekslong work stoppage against the embattled aerospace company -- and the union said the strike will go on.

Sixty-four percent of workers voted to reject the new contract, according to the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), the union representing 33,000 Boeing workers in Washington, Oregon and California.

Representatives for Boeing said Wednesday night the company did not have a comment on the vote.

The proposed contract would have delivered a 35% raise over the four-year duration of the contract, upping the 25% cumulative raise provided in a previous offer overwhelmingly rejected by workers in a vote last month. Workers had initially sought a 40% cumulative pay increase.

The proposal also called for hiking Boeing's contribution to a 401(k) plan, but it declined to fulfill workers' call for a reinstatement of the company's defined pension. The contract would have included a $7,000 ratification bonus for each worker, as well as a performance bonus that Boeing had sought to jettison.

But union leaders said the concessions offered in the proposal were not enough to meet the demands of rank-and-file union members.

"This contract struggle began over ten years ago when the company overreached and created a wound that may never heal for many members," said Jon Holden, president of IAM District 751 in Seattle, in a statement after the vote. "I don’t have to tell you all how challenging it has been for our membership through the pandemic, the crashes, massive inflation, and the need to address the losses stemming from the 2014 contract."

The union said the strike will continue as they return to the bargaining table with the company.

Hours before workers cast ballots on Wednesday, Boeing released an earnings report showing the company had lost a staggering $6.1 billion over the most recent quarter due primarily to costs associated with the strike.

MORE: Striking Boeing workers set to vote on new contract offer. Will they approve it?

"We have some really big rocks that we need to get behind us to move the company forward," Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said in a letter to investors on Wednesday.

Ortberg singled out the strike as an issue that must be addressed "first and foremost."

"We have been feverishly working to find a solution that works for the company and meets our employees' needs," Ortberg said.

The company and its workers have faced significant financial losses during the nearly six-week strike.

Union members have received $250 per week from a strike fund, beginning in the third week of the work stoppage. That compensation marks a major pay cut for many of the employees.

Mid-ranking workers involved in the strike typically make $20 per hour, which totals $800 per 40-hour work week, while higher-paid members earn salaries upward of $100,000 per year, or nearly $2,000 per week.

"The question is whether the employees and their union determine that they have the power to get more from Boeing," Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst at Atmosphere Research Group, told ABC News. "It's whether they think they can extract more from Boeing, or Boeing says, 'You know what, this is it.'"

PHOTO: Boeing factory workers and supporters gather on a picket line during the third day of a strike near the entrance to a Boeing production facility in Renton, Wash., Sept. 15, 2024. (David Ryder/Reuters)

The strike was set to cost Boeing $108 million per day in lost revenue, amounting to as much as $5.5 billion in losses should the work stoppage last 50 days, investment bank TD Cowen said in a report reviewed by ABC News at the outset of the dispute. So far, the strike has lasted 40 days.

In September, Boeing announced furloughs and pay cuts for some white-collar employees in response to the strike. Last week, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg announced plans to cut 17,000 jobs, which amounts to about 10% of its global workforce.

"This is really painful for Boeing," Richard Aboulafia, managing director of aerospace consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory, told ABC News.

MORE: What would a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory mean for the stock market?

The most recent IAM strike against Boeing in the Pacific Northwest, in 2008, lasted 57 days. Work stoppages undertaken by unionized Boeing employees in the same region have historically lasted an average of 60 days, a Bank of America Global Research analysis found after examining seven previous strikes, the earliest in 1948.

In the days leading up to Wednesday's vote, the outcome remained unclear, Jake Rosenfeld, a professor of sociology at Washington University in St. Louis, who studies labor, told ABC News.

"What are the workers going to do?" Rosenfeld said. "That's a really tough question."

Boeing workers vote to reject deal

to end strike, union says

Michael Sainato

THE GUARDIAN
Wed, October 23, 2024 


Boeing workers strike in Seattle, Washington, on 15 October 2024. Members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union have voted to extend their month-long strike.Photograph: David Ryder/Reuters


Boeing workers have rejected the latest offer to end the more than a month-long strike that has crippled the already struggling manufacturing giant.

In a blow to Boeing and the Biden administration, which has fought for a resolution to the dispute, 64% of the 33,000 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union voted to reject the contract, the union said late on Wednesday.

“After 10 years of sacrifices, we still have ground to make up, and we’re hopeful to do so by resuming negotiations promptly,” leaders of the union said in a statement after votes were tallied.

The news came on the same day that new CEO Kelly Ortberg said he would “fundamentally” transform the culture inside the beleaguered aerospace giant, and announced Boeing’s quarterly losses had swelled to almost $6bn.

The workers represented by the union began striking on 13 September.

The latest contract proposal included a 35% wage increase over the four-year contract, reinstatement of incentive bonuses, increases to the company 401k match – though workers were pushing to bring back pensions that were lost as concessionary in previous contracts, and a $7,000 ratification bonus.

Related: Boeing faces new scrutiny as US aviation agency opens safety review

After weeks of tense negotiations, a deal had appeared to be in the offing over the weekend.

“With the help of acting US secretary of labor Julie Su, we have received a negotiated proposal and resolution to end the strike, and it warrants presenting to the members and is worthy of your consideration,” the union’s bargaining committee said in a statement to members on 19 October. “We are finalizing the strike settlement agreement, which will be completed soon, along with additional contract details to provide you with a clear understanding of the offer.”

Workers also rejected an initial tentative agreement in early September. Talks resumed with a federal mediator on 7 October after a two-week stalemate. But those talks quickly broke down as Boeing suspended negotiations with the union and withdrew the offer that included a 30% wage increase.

On 1 October, employee healthcare benefits for Boeing workers on strike were cut off by the company. The union noted workers had been engaging with the community for striking members to work temporary jobs in addition to the strike pay of $250 a week members have been receiving since the third week of the strike.

Boeing had also announced plans to layoff 17,000 workers as part of plans for a 10% work reduction at its commercial unit for union and non-union workers.

According to a recent analysis by the Anderson Economic Group, the strike cost an estimated $7.6bn in direct economic losses, including $4.35bn for Boeing and nearly $2bn for Boeing suppliers

Boeing employees on strike arrive to vote on a new contract offer from the company Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024, at the Aerospace Machinists Union hall in Renton, Wash. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

Ocasio-Cortez: ‘Trump thinks that people who work at McDonald’s are a joke’

Juliann Ventura
Tue, October 22, 2024


Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) slammed former President Trump for his recent visit to a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, suggesting the photo op was just an attempt at “connecting” with voters.

“You’ve got Donald Trump putting on a little McDonald’s costume because he thinks that’s what people do,” Ocasio-Cortez told a crowd of people Monday during an event with the United Auto Workers (UAW).

“They’re not trying to empathize with us. They are making fun of us,” she added. “Donald Trump thinks that people who work at McDonald’s are a joke.”


Trump visited the fast-food chain in Bucks County, Pa., on Sunday, donning an apron and working the drive-thru and the french fry station.

The New York Democrat also knocked tech billionaire and Trump ally Elon Musk for pledging to give away $1 million per day to voters for signing his PAC’s petition backing the First Amendment, which protects freedom of speech, and the Second Amendment, with its right “to keep and bear arms.”

“We see Elon Musk coming in here. He’s doing these little contests where he’s promising people a million dollars in some kind of lottery giveaway if they sign up for his list,” she said, “You have a billionaire just dangling a million bucks to those of us and many of us who are struggling to make ends meet if they dance for him.”

Ocasio-Cortez added that Musk “thinks that dangling money in front of a working person is a cute thing to do.”

She continued in her appeal to working-class voters, arguing that Trump and Musk “have no idea what our lives are like.”

“They think this callousness is a way of connecting,” she said at the UAW event. “It’s not a way of connecting, because you and I both know that when that camera turns [off] and they turn around and go into their car, they’re laughing at us; they think we are the suckers.”

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, also accused the former president of disrespecting McDonald’s workers during the campaign stop — which was largely seen as an attack on Vice President Harris, who has described her time working at the restaurant during college.

The Trump campaign has sought to capitalize on the visit, selling T-shirts with a photo of the former president working in the drive-thru.

McDonald’s, in the wake of the event, emphasized its political neutrality.

The Hill has contacted the Trump campaign and Tesla for Elon Musk for comment.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved.

McDonald’s Is Suffering After Trump’s Weird Staged Photo-Op Visit
Paige Oamek
Wed, October 23, 2024 


McDonald’s share price just hit its lowest point since Covid. It might not be completely Donald Trump’s fault—but we can’t say that he helped at all.

After Trump’s desperate stunt at the fast-food franchise on Sunday afternoon, McDonald’s suffered a double blow to the golden arches brand. On Tuesday, news broke that an E. coli outbreak related to McDonald’s Quarter Pounders is spreading in multiple states (notably not yet in Pennsylvania, where Trump held his staged photo op).


One person has died from the outbreak, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and hospitalizations have been reported across 10 states.

In response to the double whammy, McDonald’s stock, which began dropping the day after Trump’s visit, is down 19 percent on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Trump Media stock continues to fluctuate and even surge, despite the company appearing to fall apart at the seams after hitting a new low last month. Experts say that the share price is less of a measure of the health of the business, which again is not good, and more “a barometer for both Trump and Trump’s followers,” Kristi Marvin, a former investment banker, told The New York Times. “This stock has never traded on fundamentals.”

Trump’s media company continues to lose tens of millions each quarter, and senior management are dropping like flies, despite the stock fluctuations. For a comparison to demonstrate just how much of a failure Trump’s company is, let’s put it into perspective: Trump Media’s quarterly revenue is less than that of a single McDonald’s franchise.

While McDonald’s stock will probably rebound, if investors can begin to see clearly, Trump’s businesses may not be so lucky.

Trump cashes in on McDonald’s stunt with new ‘MAGADonald’s’ merch

James Liddell
Tue, October 22, 2024 at 4:29 AM MDT·3 min read

Donald Trump has sought to cash in on his McDonald’s stunt by releasing a new, limited edition line of “MAGADonald’s” merchandise.

The former president attempted to troll Kamala Harris by manning a fryer at a drive-thru in Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania, on Sunday as he continues to claim the vice president is lying about working at the fast food chain as a summer job in the early 1980s.

And now, the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee have rolled out a new, limited edition piece of apparel to commemorate the day: a MAGADonald’s T-shirt.

“True Trump patriots” can purchase the white top brandished with Trump donning an apron and waving from the McDonald’s drive-thru window, featuring the “MAGADonald’s” slogan in the fast food giant’s red and gold brand colors.

The eagle-eyed shoppers can also spot Trump’s quiff sitting atop the slogan’s “D.”

“I HAVE A McGIFT FOR YOU!,” read a fundraising email, with the same slogan splashed across the top of the fundraising website. The so-called gift, however, is not free, with the website suggesting a donation of $100 in exchange for the T-shirt.

“I am the first and only 2024 presidential nominee to work at McDonald’s,” it continues. “But thanks to Kamala, prices for a meal are through the roof!”


The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee were quick to try and earn a buck from the former president’s McDonald’s visit (Trump campaign/Republican National Committee)

The merch adds to the Republican presidential candidate’s online store offering already consisting of $55 Make America Great Again baseball caps and a $499 pair of golden “fight, fight, fight” sneakers.

McDonald’s has attempted to distance itself from the Trump campaign and said in a statement that it does not endorse candidates for elected office following his visit.

The former president, without evidence, has repeatedly claimed that Harris has never worked at the fast food restaurant.

On October 10, Trump told rallygoers in Reno, Nevada, that he would make a pit stop at the Golden Arches.

Trump uses fryer next to an employee during his visit to McDonald's in Feasterville-Trevose on Sunday (AP)

Instead of ordering his one-time 2,400kcal order of choice – two Big Macs, two Fillet-O-Fish, and a chocolate milkshake – the former president declared he was “going to a McDonald’s to work”.

The McDonald’s loyalist, whose campaign allegedly spent $31,000 at the fast food chain in the last 18 months, also claimed his minutes-long stint would mean he’d “have worked longer and harder at McDonald’s” than Harris.

On Sunday afternoon, Trump spent just minutes donning an apron and serving up fries during a roughly hour-long photoshoot.

“I’ve now worked for 15 minutes more than Kamala,” Trump told reporters, throwing a jab at Harris.

Trump also declared that he would cover the cost of all food served to supporters: “Trump is paying for it… This is all on Trump, am I allowed to do that?”

The former president added that he enjoyed his mini-shift and would consider coming back and doing it again.
View comments (94)




Here's What We Know About Trump's 'Shift' at a McDonald's in Pennsylvania and Claims It Was 'Staged'

Aleksandra Wrona
Tue, October 22, 2024 

Reddit u/Lifegoesonforever, C-SPAN


Former U.S. President Donald Trump spent about 15 minutes scooping French fries into containers and handing them to drive-thru "customers" at a McDonald's restaurant in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 20, 2024, in a publicity stunt arranged by his presidential campaign.

"I worked 15 minutes longer than Kamala Harris ever did," Trump told reporters after the photo op, doubling down on his claims that the vice president lied when she said she worked at a McDonald's in her youth.

When video of Trump's 15-minute stint as a fast-food worker was released, social media platforms erupted with partisan posts claiming it was was "fake," "staged" and merely a "stunt."

It's crucial to note that photo ops and publicity stunts are always, by definition, staged. That said, here are examples of some of the online comments about Trump's McDonald's outing:

"You mean to tell me this was all staged, and that these 'customers' rehearsed in advance to make it seem like a genuine interaction and that the McDonald's was actually closed to the public!" one X post read. Another X post, with more than 1.7 million views, stated: "Who else was NOT surprised to learn that Trump's event at a closed McDonald's was totally staged and as fraudulent as he is?"

The News Media on Trump's 'Shift' At McDonald's

Multiple reliable news outlets, such as The Associated Press, Reuters and the BBC, reported on Trump's visit to the fast-food restaurant. The New York Times rightly called it a "campaign photo op," reporting that Trump handed food to preselected customers.

C-SPAN recorded the visit, stating Trump "worked a 30-minute shift. … He first met with the owner and received a uniform and name tag, and then learned how to make and package french fries before serving some drive-thru customers and answering questions from the press."

You can see the footage of Trump's visit below:

Trump's involvement was limited to a short interaction with staff and customers, learning how to make and package French fries, and serving a few drive-thru customers, rather than a normal employee's full workday involving numerous tasks.
Was the Location Closed?

The primary argument circulating on social media accusing the event of being staged was centered around a printed notice supposedly displayed at the restaurant, stating it was closed. A photograph of the notice was shared on platforms including X, Threads, Facebook and Reddit. "So the place wasn't even open. It was all staged and fake. He didn't work for real at a McDonalds. It was a staged fraud just like every other event," one X user captioned it.

The Washington Post and Philadelphia TV station WCAU also reported the restaurant was closed to the public during Trump's visit.

The text on the notice read:



Dear Feasterville Community,

We plan to be closed on Sunday, October 20 until 4 p.m., to accommodate a visit at the request of former President Trump and his campaign.

While we are not a political organization, we proudly open our doors to everyone and as a locally owned and operated location, this visit provides a unique opportunity to shine a light on the positive impact of small businesses here in Feasterville. We're equally honored to share the significance of what 1 in 8 Americans have experienced: that a job at McDonald's is more than just a job. It's a pathway to critical skills development and meaningful career opportunities. Having started my McDonald's joumey as a crew member in New York nearly 30 years ago. This path to economic opportunity is especially meaningful to me.

I apologize for the inconvenience of closing our restaurant and sincerely look forward to serving you very soon.

Derek Giacomantonio and my team at Feasterville McDonald's

Giacomantonio was shown in the C-SPAN video as an owner of the restaurant.

We have reached out to McDonald's and Giacomantonio to confirm the notice's authenticity.
Photos From the Event

Apart from the printed notice, social media users shared other photographs from the event along with their claims the event was fake. "It was all STAGED!! Trump did not work. McDonald's closed for the day & there was a car rehearsal," one Reddit user wrote. One X post claimed that customers were "handpicked," while another alleged the customers were "pre-selected supporters of his campaign who had practiced how to use the drive-through."

WCAU reported that "it was not immediately clear how the drive-through customers served by Trump were selected." According to The Washington Post, "the motorists whom Trump served were screened by the U.S. Secret Service and positioned before his arrival. No one ordered food. Instead, the attendees received whatever Trump gave them."

These photographs were initially shared by local journalist Tom Sofield, who captioned them with: "Cars rehearsing ahead of former Pres. Trump, who is expected to be serving supporters McDonald's food" and "The supporters who will be served food by Trump are in place and screened by USSS."



(X user @BuxMontNews)

"The fact that you present this like it's some big shock makes me wonder who ties your shoes for you. The USSS didn't let a bunch of random people in their personal vehicles drive up to a drive-thru window with a former President and Presidential candidate," one X user commented, pointing to the fact that screening people in high-security situations is a standard practice.

Sofield confirmed to Snopes that he took the pictures. He said the "rehearsals" involved staging the cars in line and brief conversations with campaign staff, adding that the people in the vehicles waited about an hour or an hour and a half before Trump arrived and handed out food.

We also reached out to Trump's campaign, which did not respond to questions about whether there were rehearsals, how customers were chosen and screened, or whether the notice about the store's closure was real, instead repeating the line that "President Trump has now worked at McDonald's longer than Kamala Harris ever did."

Additionally, we reached out to the Secret Service for comment about how the customers were selected and whether they were screened by the agency, and we will update this report if we receive a response.
Sources:

Contact. https://www.secretservice.gov/contact. Accessed 21 Oct. 2024.

Contact Information | McDonald's Corporation. https://www.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/contact.html. Accessed 21 Oct. 2024.

Former President Trump Works at McDonald's in Bucks County, PA | C-SPAN.Org. https://www.c-span.org/video/?539376-1/president-trump-works-mcdonalds-bucks-county-pa. Accessed 21 Oct. 2024.

Gold, Michael. "Trump Slings McDonald's Fries as He Smears Harris in Pennsylvania." The New York Times, 20 Oct. 2024. NYTimes.com, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/20/us/politics/trump-mcdonalds-fries.html.

Shalal, Andrea, and Steve Holland. "Trump Hands out French Fries, Harris Visits Georgia Churches." Reuters, 21 Oct. 2024. www.reuters.com, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-mark-60th-birthday-with-atlanta-church-visits-trump-hits-mcdonalds-2024-10-20/.

"Tom Sofield, Author at LevittownNow.Com." LevittownNow.Com, 21 Oct. 2024, https://levittownnow.com/author/tomsofield/.

Trump Serves up McDonald's Fries and Harris Celebrates Birthday. https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cgryevjjlx2o. Accessed 21 Oct. 2024.

"Trump Works the Fry Station and Holds a Drive-Thru News Conference at a Pennsylvania McDonald's." AP News, 20 Oct. 2024, https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-mcdonalds-2024-presidential-election-pennsylvania-73e55c8c1db4adc2a547b62bd5142be3.

Key Atlantic current could collapse soon, 'impacting the entire world for centuries to come,' leading climate scientists warn

Sascha Pare
Tue, October 22, 2024 

Credit: NOAA

Forty-four of the world's leading climate scientists have called on Nordic policymakers to address the potentially imminent and "devastating" collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents.

In an open letter published online Monday (Oct. 21), University of Pennsylvania climatologist Michael Mann and other eminent scientists say the risks of weakening ocean circulation in the Atlantic have been greatly underestimated and warrant urgent action.


The currents in question are those forming the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a giant ocean conveyor belt that includes the Gulf Stream and transports vital heat to the Northern Hemisphere. Research shows the AMOC is slowing down and could soon reach a tipping point due to global warming, throwing Earth's climate into chaos.

"Such an ocean circulation change would have devastating and irreversible impacts especially for Nordic countries, but also for other parts of the world," the scientists wrote in the letter. The Nordic countries include Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland and Sweden.

Related: Michael Mann: Yes, we can still stop the worst effects of climate change. Here's why.

An AMOC collapse would lead to major cooling and extreme weather in Nordic countries, according to the letter. This would enlarge and deepen a strange "cold blob" that has already developed over the eastern North Atlantic due to the slowdown of heat-carrying currents. Collapsing ocean currents are also likely to precipitate climate impacts across the Northern Hemisphere, threatening agriculture in Northwestern Europe, according to the letter.

A map of the major ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean

Other regions would feel the effects, too, the scientists said. Should the AMOC grind to a halt, it would trigger a southward shift in tropical monsoon systems — with catastrophic consequences for agriculture and ecosystems. Halted ocean currents could also further heighten sea levels along the American Atlantic coast and send marine ecosystems and fisheries into a state of "upheaval."

Without urgent climate action, the AMOC could collapse in the next few decades, although there is huge uncertainty in predicting the timescales, according to the letter. The latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that "there is medium confidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will not collapse abruptly before 2100," but the scientists say this is an underestimate.

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The IPCC estimate is not only imprecise but also worrisome, according to the letter.

"The purpose of this letter is to draw attention to the fact that only 'medium confidence' in the AMOC not collapsing is not reassuring, and clearly leaves open the possibility of an AMOC collapse during this century," the scientists wrote. "Even with a medium likelihood of occurrence, given that the outcome would be catastrophic and impacting the entire world for centuries to come, we believe more needs to be done to minimize this risk."

The scientists addressed the letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers, an intergovernmental forum tasked with promoting cooperation among the Nordic countries. They urged policymakers to seriously consider the risks posed by an AMOC collapse and to increase pressure on international partners to stay close to the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to keep average global temperature rise to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels.

 Researchers make stunning discovery after examining farmland treated only with organic fertilizers for decades: '[Will] help us to move forward'

Juliana Marino
October 13, 2024

Sustainable farming is making headlines after researchers discovered a unique connection between organic farming and carbon storage in soil, according to an article posted on Phys.org.

As more polluting carbon ends up in the atmosphere and global temperatures continue to rise, scientists are trying to find ways to increase carbon absorption. This will help decrease the carbon in the atmosphere, creating a healthier planet for everyone.

Researchers at Kansas State University have been studying how different farming practices impact the amount of carbon stored in the soil. After comparing their results, the researchers concluded that soil treated with manure or compost fertilizer stores more carbon than soil treated with chemical fertilizers or no fertilizer.

While previous studies on soil carbon capture have also found organic farming techniques increase carbon capture in soil, the researchers at KSU discovered something else: how the carbon gets stored in the soil.

According to their findings, the carbon is preserved in pores, and some of that carbon attaches to minerals in the soil. Ultrabright synchrotron light — a type of light that is more intense and brighter than an X-ray — enabled the researchers to see how the carbon connects to the soil particles.

KSU researchers used the Canadian Light Source at the University of Saskatchewan and the Advanced Light Source in Berkeley, California, to analyze soil from a Kansas cornfield that had been farmed with no tilling and only manure/compost fertilizer for the past 22 years.

Watch now: How did Hurricane Helene wreak havoc so far inland?

Published in the Soil Science Society of America Journal, the study underscores the benefits of sustainable farming. It highlights how organic compost and manure not only support the health of the soil but also directly fight rising global temperatures through carbon sequestration.

"Collectively, studies like this are going to help us to move forward to more sustainable, more regenerative agriculture practices that will protect our soils and environment as well as help feed growing populations," KSU professor of soil and environmental chemistry Dr. Ganga Hettiarachchi said, according to Rowan Hollinger of Canadian Light Source.

"As well, understanding the role of the different minerals, chemicals, and microbes involved will help improve models for predicting how different farming practices affect soil carbon storage," Hettiarachchi added.

Join our free newsletter for weekly updates on the latest innovations improving our lives and shaping our future, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.

Mexico announces food and agriculture plan that could take the country back to the 1980s

Associated Press
Updated Tue, October 22, 2024 




 A farm worker irrigates black bean plants with wastewater near Tepatepec, Hidalgo state, Mexico

 (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico’s new president announced an agriculture plan Tuesday that could make the country’s food production and distribution look a lot more like it did in the 1980s, when meals in Mexico were dominated by tortillas, beans, instant coffee and cheap hot chocolate.

Four decades ago, the ingredients for those meals were often bought at government stores that stocked a few basic goods.

President Claudia Sheinbaum pledged Tuesday to revive those often shabby, limited government stores and continue efforts to achieve “food sovereignty.”

“It is about producing what we eat,” Sheinbaum said of her policy, whose main focus will be on increasing bean and corn production.

Sheinbaum appears to have a deep interest in boosting beans. On Monday, she said, “It is much better to eat a bean taco than a bag of potato chips."

Agriculture Secretary Julio Berdegué said the focus would be on guaranteeing prices for farmers who grow corn used for tortillas and lowering tortilla prices by 10% after prices jumped a couple of years ago.

The government aims to boost bean production by about 30% in six years to replace imports of beans, and will set up research centers to supply higher-yielding bean seeds.

“Self-sufficiency in beans is a goal the president has set for us,” Berdegué said.

The government will also focus on supporting coffee production, but mainly for instant coffee, which it claims is used by 84% of Mexican households. The plan will also seek to support cocoa production, but mainly for powdered baking and hot chocolate, not fine chocolate bars.

The policies appear to run counter to market trends and what Mexican food sales look like today, when consumption of most of the old basics has fallen.

Most Mexicans today shop at modern grocery stores, and consumption of fresh ground coffee, not instant, has increased enormously, accompanied by a boom in specialized coffee chains and shops.

Meanwhile, bean consumption has been dropping precipitously for decades in Mexico. According to the government's “2024 Agricultural Panorama” report, Mexicans consume only about 17 pounds (7.7 kilograms) of beans annually. That's less than half of the 35.2 pounds (16 kilograms) consumed per year in 1980.

A combination of factors, including the time it takes to cook dried beans, may be behind this. Amanda Gálvez, a researcher at Mexico's National Autonomous University, wrote that “we look down at beans because it is considered ‘the food of the poor,’ and we are making a serious mistake,” because beans are a good source of protein.

However, the health benefits aren't clear: The most common bean recipe in Mexico — refried beans — often contains a considerable dose of lard.

Tortilla consumption has also fallen from nearly 220 pounds (100 kilograms) per capita annually in 2000 to about 165 pounds (75 kilograms) in 2024. Consumers have increasingly taken to buying bread and other bakery products instead of tortillas.

Apart from the challenge of trying to change consumer habits, the policy also runs counter to market trends. While some countries are trying to encourage high-value varietal and specialized chocolate strains, Mexico is focusing on the cheapest products.

While chocolate was first exported to the rest of the world from Mexico, Mexico's own production has fallen dramatically because of plant diseases and a lack of investment. It dropped from almost 50,000 tons in 2003 to about 28,000 tons in 2022.

And while most Mexican homes may have a jar of instant coffee in their cupboards, that's not where the tendency — or consumer spending — is headed. According to a Technavio industry report, instant products accounted for only about 37% of the sales value of coffee in Mexico.

Sheinbaum's focus on self-sufficiency in oil, energy and foodstuffs is a holdover from her predecessor and political mentor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who left office on Sept. 30.

López Obrador also appears to have passed on his nostalgia for a 1970s-style Mexico — including passenger rail service, state-owned industries, tight-knit families and small corner stores — to Sheinbaum.

The agriculture plan comes one day after Sheinbaum announced a complete “junk food” ban on salty, fried, processed snacks or sweetened beverages and soft drinks in schools, starting within six months.

But the government's track record in actually changing consumer behavior is poor, columnist Javier Tejado wrote Tuesday in the newspaper El Universal. He reminded readers that the government banned junk food advertisements aimed at children in 2014.

“The result after ten years of prohibitions?” Tejado wrote. “Things are worse than when they started in 2014; Mexicans have decided to keep consuming things they like.”

UK

Military boarding school pupils subjected to ‘dreadful abuse’, inquiry finds

Simon Johnson
Tue 22 October 2024 

Queen Victoria School has been described as a place where ‘violence was allowed to prevail’ - PA Images/Alamy


Pupils attending a military boarding school decades ago were subjected to “dreadful abuse” in an environment where “violence was allowed to prevail”, the chairman of an inquiry has found.

Lady Smith, who chairs the Scottish Child Abuse Inquiry, said children attending the Queen Victoria School (QVS) in Dunblane were physically and emotionally abused by teachers and older children.

Children were beaten or hit by “a small number of teachers” with belts, slippers, a cricket bat and wooden dusters “under the guise of corporal punishment”, she said.


Older pupils would also subject younger ones to “cruel and terrifying behaviour” such as tying them to chairs and putting bags over their heads.

QVS was constituted by a royal warrant initiated by Queen Victoria but enacted by her son, King Edward, who signed it in 1905.

The school was established with the initial aim to provide support and education to sons of Scottish servicemen of ranks other than officers.

Lady Smith made her remarks about the school as the latest volume of her inquiry findings were published on Tuesday.

She said: “The pupils at QVS were all boarders and they were exposed to risks of sexual, physical, and emotional abuse. For many of them, those risks materialised and children suffered abuse.

“I have no difficulty in finding that children were abused by staff whose abusive practices were such that they must, or at least ought to, have been obvious to those in positions of responsibility.

“Further, they were abused by senior and other pupils, some of whose practices must or ought to have been obvious. It was mistakenly assumed the background and governance of the school would be enough to provide appropriate residential care.”

But she said this assumption was “ill-founded”, particularly between the late 1950s and early 1990s, and factors including inadequate management and “undue adherence to a robust military culture” enabling abuse to occur.

“The culture of the school was such that pupils were subjected to initiation ceremonies, there was a hierarchy that enabled abuse of power by senior pupils, differences were not tolerated, and pupils were, at times, not treated as the children they were,” she said.

“A culture of silence was the norm. Staff encouraged pupils not to clipe or report, and some ignored obvious abuse.”

Endemic violence

Highlighting the “endemic” violence displayed by older boys to younger pupils, she said that “cruel and terrifying behaviour” was commonplace in senior boarding houses. Among the cases she highlighted were “threatening to throw a child down a lift shaft”.

She concluded: “The current management, the commissioners, and the MoD now understand that there is no room for complacency given the abuse that has taken place since 2010 despite the child protection systems and policies that had been put in place.

“QVS apologised for the abuse experienced by children who had been entrusted into its care.”

Lady Smith has now published 13 volumes of inquiry findings, including one relating to Gordonstoun in Moray, the King’s former school.

Further case study findings in relation to other boarding schools will follow. QVS has been contacted for comment.

Norman coin hoard becomes England’s most valuable treasure find after being sold for record-breaking sum

Salma Ouaguira
Tue 22 October 2024 

The 11th-century coin trove is known as the Chew Valley Hoard (British Museum/PA Wire)

A group of metal detectorists uncovered an extraordinary hoard of 2,584 ancient coins in a Somerset field valued at £4.3million.

The 11th-century coin trove, known as the Chew Valley Hoard, is now England’s most valuable treasure find, revealing new information about the historical transition following the Norman Conquest.

The set includes pennies depicting William the Conqueror and Harold II, and a number of coins of William I issued after his coronation in 1066.


Adam Staples, 48, discovered the coins in 2019 with his girlfriend at the time, Lisa Grace, and five friends, but had to wait for years to secure the payout.

The set includes pennies depicting William the Conqueror, Harold II and William I (British Museum/PA Wire)

Under the Treasure Act 1996, hunters must report an archaeological find to the local coroner within 14 days of discovering it.

The auctioneer from Derby said: “It’s like winning the lottery but then you can’t cash the ticket for five years.

“Coming to the British Museum a few days after we found the hoard, when they opened the front gates and we drove through crowds with a few million pounds worth of coins in the back of the car, was a surreal experience.

“And then it was Covid and five years of silence until we got to this point. It’s frustrating, but it’s still winning the lottery, so you feel like you can’t complain.

“We received the money a few weeks ago – I’ve bought a house and can now live mortgage-free.”

The collection shines fresh light on the aftermath of the Norman invasion, covering the transition from Saxon to Norman rule marked by 1066 (British Museum/PA Wire)

Half of the money went to the landowner, and the rest was split between the members of the treasure-hunting group, meaning they got around £300,000 each.

Despite hitting the jackpot, Mr Staples is continuing to hunt for treasure, having last gone detecting on Sunday.

Experts believe the coins provide valuable insights into the economic conditions during the period following the Battle of Hastings. They suggest the coins were buried for safekeeping amid the unrest at the time.

Gareth Williams, a curator at the British Museum, said the original owner was likely affluent and possibly involved in the conflicts during the Norman invasion.

An Edward the Confessor Pyramid coin (1065-6), which is part of the Chew Valley Hoard of 2,584 coins (AP)

Evidence showed whoever buried the trove was “involved in some way in the Battle of Hastings”, he added. The hoard would have bought a flock of more than 500 sheep, he said, and so it must have belonged to “someone relatively wealthy”.

That person “may or not” have come to an unpleasant end, Mr Williams added.

Coins in the 1,000-year-old hoard show signs of being illicitly tampered with, having mixed designs on either side. Experts said this is evidence that the person striking the coins was avoiding paying a fee to obtain an up-to-date design.

Mr Williams said that making false coinage risked a severe penalty – having a hand cut off – at the time. “We can see from these coins that that wasn’t a deterrent,” he added.

The hoard has been acquired by the South West Heritage Trust, following funding received from the National Lottery Heritage Fund and other organisations which paid Mr Staples for the coins.

It will be displayed at the British Museum from 26 November, before touring other museums across the country and eventually finding a permanent home in Somerset.

Hoard of 1,000-year-old coins unearthed in a farmer's field sells for $5.6 million

JILL LAWLESS
Tue 22 October 2024 





An Edward the Confessor Pyramid coin (1065-6), part of the Chew Valley Hoard of 2,584 coins, buried in the turmoil following the Norman Invasion of Britain in 1066, on display at the British Museum in London, Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024, the hoard is valued at £4.3 million pounds, (US$5.58 million), a record find. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)

LONDON (AP) — Adam Staples knew he’d found something when his metal detector let out a beep. And then another. And another.

Soon “it was just ‘beep beep, beep beep, beep beep,’” Staples said.

In a farmer’s field in southwest England, Staples and six friends had found a hoard of more than 2,500 silver coins that had lain in the ground for almost 1,000 years. Valued at 4.3 million pounds ($5.6 million) and now bound for a museum, they will help shed light on the turbulent aftermath of the Norman conquest of England.

“The first one was a William the Conqueror coin — 1,000 pounds, 1,500 pounds value,” Staples said Tuesday at the British Museum, where the hoard will go on display in November. “It’s a really good find. It’s a find-of-the-year sort of discovery. And then we got another one, (we thought) there might be five, there might be 10.

“And it just got bigger and bigger," he said — the biggest find in his 30 years of searching the fields and furrows of Britain as an amateur detectorist.

The hoard, discovered in 2019 and recently acquired by the South West Heritage Trust, totaled 2,584 silver pennies minted between 1066 and 1068, some showing conquering King William I and others his defeated Anglo-Saxon predecessor Harold II.

Michael Lewis, head of the Portable Antiquities Scheme — a government-funded project that records archaeological discoveries made by the public – said it is “one of the most spectacular discoveries” of recent years, especially because “its story is yet to be fully unraveled.”

Lewis said the coin hoard will help deepen understanding of the most famous date in English history: 1066, the year William, Duke of Normandy, defeated King Harold at the Battle of Hastings, replacing England’s Saxon monarchs with Norman French rulers.

“Most of us are taught about the Norman Conquest of England at school, probably because it was the last time that England was successfully conquered,” Lewis said. “But it a story based on certain myths,” such as the notion that the battle pitted “English versus French,” or “good” Saxons against “bad” Normans.

In fact, the warring families were interrelated, and Lewis said the hoard “helps us to tell a different story, one that is more nuanced.”

Though the invasion marked a historic schism, the coins in the hoard are remarkably similar whether they were minted before or after the conquest. One side shows a monarch’s head in profile, the other an emblem: an elaborate cross for William, the somewhat ironic word “pax” -- peace -- for Harold.

Amal Khreisheh, curator of archaeology at the South West Heritage Trust, said the coins were likely buried for safekeeping as local rebellions erupted against Norman rule.

“We know that the people of Exeter rebelled against William in 1068 and that Harold’s sons, who were in exile in Ireland, came back and started mounting attacks along the River Avon down into Somerset,” she said. “So it’s probably against that background they were hidden.”

The Chew Valley Hoard, named for the rural area where it was found, has been bought for the nation with money from the charitable arm of Britain’s national lottery. After going on display at the British Museum and other museums around the U.K., it will have a permanent home at the Museum of Somerset in Taunton, 130 miles (210 kilometers) southwest of London.

It has taken several years for the hoard to make its way through Britain’s system for handling amateur archaeological finds. The Treasure Act decrees that anyone who finds historic gold, silver or other precious items must inform the local coroner. If a coroner declares it treasure, the hoard will belong to the government, and museums can bid for funding to acquire it.

An expert committee sets a value on each find, with the money divided between the owner of the land and the finders. In this case, Staples and six fellow detectorists split half of the 4.3 million pound purse.

“It’s like winning the lottery,” said Staples, who plans to continue his treasure-hunting hobby. “I’m not going to give up now. I love it.”

Experts: Analysis shows Trump proposal would "dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances"

Marin Scotten
Mon, October 21, 2024 

Donald Trump | Social Security Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images

Social Security funds could run out in the next six years if former President Donald Trump wins in November, according to a new report from the bipartisan group Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The program's funding is already in crisis and expected to become insolvent as early as 2033. Trump’s policies would add over $2.3 trillion to Social Security’s deficit between 2026 and 2033 and — and cause a 33% cut to benefits in 2035, the report found.

“We find President Trump’s campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances,” the report released Monday states.


Many of Trump’s proposals would “widen Social Security’s cash deficits,” the report reads. Currently, 40% of Social Security recipients pay taxes on some portion of their benefit and that money goes back into the program. Trump has proposed to cut the taxation of all Social Security benefits, which would dramatically weaken the program’s longevity.

The Republican nominee has also promised to cut taxes on tips and overtime pay, which could cost Social Security anywhere from $150 million to $1 trillion, the report found. His proposed import tariffs and mass deportations of undocumented immigrants would also impact the program, which benefits over 71 million people.

“If President Trump’s campaign agenda were enacted in full, we estimate it would shrink that window by one-third, to only six years," the report said.

The watchdog group found that Vice President Kamala Harris’ proposed policies would neither accelerate or slow Social Security’s funding trajectory.

Despite Social Security’s uncertain future, the topic hasn’t come up much in this year’s election conversations. Both candidates have vaguely pledged to protect the program, but neither has shared a detailed plan for doing so.

Trump Proposals Could Lead to a 33% Cut in Social Security Benefits

Michael Rainey
Mon, October 21, 2024

Social Security will be forced to cut benefits by an estimated 23% in 10 years if Congress fails to prop up the program’s trust funds before then, but a new analysis from a budget watchdog group warns that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s proposals would move up the day of reckoning by as much as three years while forcing an even larger benefit reduction.

The report from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates for debt and deficit reduction, found that several of Trump’s proposals would widen Social Security’s projected financial shortfall. Ending taxes on Social Security benefits would reduce the program’s cash balance by an estimated $950 billion between 2026 and 2035. Eliminating federal income taxes on tips and overtime income would cost about $900 billion over the same time period, while the combination of more restrictive immigration rules, which would reduce the number of migrant workers paying into the system, and higher tariffs, which would increase the cost of many goods and thereby increase annual cost-of-living adjustments, would cost about $400 billion.

Altogether, the proposals would reduce the cash balance in the Social Security system by roughly $2.3 trillion over a decade, according to the group’s “central estimate” of the effects of Trump’s plans. (The “low” estimate for the revenue loss is $1.3 trillion over 10 years, while the “high” estimate is $2.8 trillion.)

As a result, the Social Security system would be forced to cut benefits in fiscal year 2031 rather than in 2034, as currently projected. “In other words,” the group said, “the trust funds would be insolvent only six years after the next President takes office instead of nine – reducing the remaining life of the trust fund by one-third.”

Additionally, the size of the benefit cut would increase under Trump’s proposals. The current projected 23% cut — roughly $16,500 a year for a typical dual-income household — would become a 33% cut by 2035.

No plans to bolster Social Security on the table: Neither presidential candidate has offered a plan to improve Social Security’s long-term financial health and avoid the projected benefit cuts. The CRFB analysts did note, however, that Vice President Kamala Harris’s proposals would not have a significant negative effect on the Social Security trust funds.

Harris campaign spokesperson Joe Costello told CBS News that the analysis shows that Trump is a threat to the Social Security system, while the Democratic candidate seeks to safeguard it. “Vice President Harris is committed to protecting Social Security benefits and is the only candidate who will actually fight for seniors, not just pay them lip service on the campaign trail,” Costello said.

Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt rejected the CRFB analysis altogether while arguing without basis that undocumented immigrants are a serious threat to the Social Security system. “The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong throughout the years,” Leavitt said in a statement. “By unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history and put Social Security on a stronger footing for generations to come,” she said.

In its analysis, CRFB addressed Trump’s argument about the curative power of energy production, saying, “increased energy exploration is unlikely to have a meaningful effect on Social Security.” And while faster economic growth could indeed help Social Security’s finances, CRFB was skeptical about the potential for Trump’s plans to do so. “[B]ased on available analyses and understanding the effects of President Trump’s agenda on the national debt, it is unlikely his plans would significantly boost the size of the economy, and many estimates find his plans would reduce long-term output,” CRFB said.
chart-Social-Security-trust-fund-CRFB-10212024-600.png




A Trump presidency would drain Social Security's finances faster, budget group warns

Grace Eliza Goodwin
Updated Mon, October 21, 2024 at 2:26 PM MDT·4 min read

Trump's proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security's finances, a nonpartisan budget group is warning.


The group predicts Trump's agenda would push up Social Security insolvency by 3 years.


Harris' proposals would have little impact on Social Security's insolvency timeline, the group says.

Americans are in danger of losing their full benefits by the mid-2030s — and a nonpartisan budget group is warning that if Trump is elected, his policies could push the funding crisis years sooner.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan nonprofit that examines the impacts of fiscal policies, released a report Monday outlining the negative effects it predicts a second Trump presidency would have on Social Security.

"We find President Trump's campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security's finances," the CRFB wrote in its report.

In a recent report, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that a main Social Security trust fund could be exhausted in 2034, meaning that Americans wouldn't get their full benefits.

The Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees estimated that the fund would run out a year later, in 2035.

But the CRFB estimates in its report that if Trump wins a second term and enacts his current campaign proposals, those funds would become insolvent three years sooner than the CBO's prediction, in 2031. The CRFB says that would lead to Americans losing 33% of their Social Security benefits across the board by 2035 — a bigger cut compared to the CBO's current 23% projection.

The CRFB estimates that the Republican presidential nominee's promises to stop taxing Social Security benefits, eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, impose tariffs, and increase deportations would worsen Social Security's cash deficits when combined.

But that's not all the damage Trump's proposals would do, according to the CRFB.

In addition to advancing the insolvency timeline and reducing Americans' benefits, Trump's agenda would raise Social Security's ten-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion through 2035 and raise its annual shortfall by about 50% in 2035, the CRFB predicts in its report.

For Social Security to restore 75-year solvency under these conditions, current law benefits would need to be decreased by about a third, or revenue would need to increase by half.

The Trump campaign's national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, disputed the CRFB's report in a statement shared with Business Insider.

"The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong throughout the years. President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security in his first term, and President Trump will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term," Leavitt said in the statement.

"By unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history and put Social Security on a stronger footing for generations to come, all the while eliminating taxes on Social Security for America's well-deserving seniors," Leavitt continued.

Meanwhile, the CRFB had a rosier outlook when it examined Kamala Harris' policy proposals.

The CRFB says in its report that the Democratic presidential nominee's campaign proposals "would not have large effects on Social Security trust fund solvency." Because Harris's policies would only affect the insolvency timeline by weeks or months, the group did not create a similar report for her, CRFB's senior policy director Marc Goldwein said, according to the Washington Post.

A spokesperson for the Harris-Walz campaign, Joseph Costello, said in a statement shared with BI: "Vice President Harris is committed to protecting Social Security benefits and is the only candidate who will actually fight for seniors, not just pay them lip service on the campaign trail."

Both Trump and Harris have said they would protect Social Security, but neither candidate has laid out specific plans to alleviate the expected $16,500/year cut to benefits that a typical couple retiring just before insolvency could face, the CRFB said in its report.

The promise of Social Security to provide a retirement free from poverty is already not living up to the reality many Americans are facing.

Business Insider previously spoke to over 40 baby boomers and some Gen Xers who said they're struggling to reach a comfortable retirement, and Social Security isn't doing enough to keep them afloat. Some retirees have even had their benefits unexpectedly slashed thanks to murky provisions.

Donald Trump's Proposals Would Hurt Social Security’s Finances, Analysis Finds

Arthur Delaney
Mon, October 21, 2024

The popular Social Security retirement insurance program would run out of money faster if Congress adopted policies promoted by former President Donald Trump, according to a new analysis by an authoritative budget group.

Despite Trump’s promise to protect Social Security, his proposals to cut tax breaks on tips and overtime pay, among other things, would “dramatically worsen” Social Security’s financial position, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said Monday.

“Social Security will be only nine years away from insolvency when the next President takes office,” the CRFB said on its website. “If President Trump’s campaign agenda were enacted in full, we estimate it would shrink that window by one-third, to only six years.”

Social Security’s trust fund has enough money to pay full benefits until 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office, at which point incoming revenue from payroll taxes would cover only 83% of benefits. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which opposes large budget deficits, said Trump’s various proposals would hasten the fund’s depletion to 2031.

The harm to Social Security’s finances under Trump’s agenda results from a combination of proposals, some directly related to Social Security, and others not.

Trump’s idea to cut taxes on tipped income, overtime pay and Social Security benefits, for instance, takes away money that funds benefits. Those proposals would reduce funding by as much as $2 trillion over a decade, per the CRFB.

Trump’s proposals for tariffs on imported goods, plus mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, meanwhile, could reduce trust fund revenue by as much as $750 billion. The former policy would impact Social Security by boosting inflation, thereby forcing Social Security to speed up its annual cost-of-living adjustments. Mass deportations would reduce the number of workers paying into the program.

The former president often claims immigrants are a drain on Social Security, but they help the program’s finances by contributing through automatic payroll deductions even when they are ineligible to receive benefits in the future.

Trump has steered the Republican Party away from its past support of cutting Social Security benefits in order to improve the program’s finances, but his ad hoc campaign promises to cut taxes for various voter groups would make it more difficult to balance the program’s projected revenue and spending. Trump has said he would close the gap with faster economic growth, which is a dubious proposition, while Democrats have suggested improving Social Security solvency entirely through taxes on higher earners.

“The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong throughout the years,” Trump campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in an emailed statement, without pointing to examples of CRFB being wrong.

“The only candidate who poses a threat to the solvency of Social Security is dangerously liberal Kamala Harris — whose mass invasion of millions of illegal aliens will, if they are allowed to stay, cause Social Security to buckle and collapse,” Leavitt said. “By unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history and put Social Security on a stronger footing for generations to come, all the while eliminating taxes on Social Security for America’s well-deserving seniors.”
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Report: Trump's plans could force Social Security benefit cuts in 6 years
Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press
Updated Mon, October 21, 2024 at 6:18 PM MDT·5 min read
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A new report by a nonpartisan budget organization in Washington concluded Monday that while neither Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris' or Republican former President Donald Trump's plans would address Social Security's looming insolvency, Trump's would "dramatically worsen" the social safety net program's finances.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget issued an analysis reported in the Washington Post that indicated that Trump's sweeping campaign promises of tax cuts on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits, along with higher prices caused by tariffs and mass deportation efforts he has said he would order would put Social Security in a position of becoming insolvent in as short a time as six years and requiring benefits to be cut by a third if enacted.

Harris' plans, on the other hand, which also include cutting taxes on tips, increasing border security and extending some parts of the 2017 tax cuts would "likely expand Social Security’s deficits," the report said, but proposed minimum wage increases and other measures could boost payroll tax collections. "On net, these changes are likely to modestly increase ten-year deficits and advance insolvency by several weeks or months," the report said in a footnote.

The group, which was founded more than 40 years ago to address and research fiscal policy, has a long history of bipartisan involvement and its current co-chairs include former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a Republican, and former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, a Democrat.

The analysis comes near the end of a fractious campaign between Harris and Trump, with Michigan a key battleground state where polling shows them effectively tied. Both candidates have promised to protect Social Security's finances but neither has put forward a specific plan for staving off the social safety net's insolvency.

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in testimony provided to Congress, has estimated that under current payroll tax revenues and expected benefit payments, the Old Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund, which pays out to retirees, would likely see benefits cut by 25% beginning in 2034 because of a shortfall and the Disability Insurance trust fund would see benefits cut by 13% in 2065. If the two were combined — which is not allowed under current law but could be to shore up a shortfall — estimated revenues will equal 77% of scheduled payments in 2035, requiring benefits to be reduced by 23% absent an increase in payroll taxes, the CBO said.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget report found that while Harris' proposals would have a negligible effect on that prediction, Trump's would exacerbate it, cutting the time of predicted insolvency for a combined program from fiscal year 2034 to FY 2031 or 2032.

"Upon insolvency, the law calls for limiting Social Security spending to its revenue stream, which we've previously estimated would mean a $16,500 cut in annual benefits for a typical dual-income couple retiring in 2033. CBO estimates that benefits would have to be cut by 23% by 2035 under current law," the analysis said. "Under President Trump's agenda, we estimate that benefit cut would total 33% by 2035, with a range of 29% to 36% depending on the scenario."

The analysis relied on the group's other estimates of the effects of both Harris' and Trump's economic proposals and what they would mean if fully implemented. Those estimates, which included a range of potential outcomes, concluded that Harris' plan could be anywhere from deficit neutral over a decade to worsening it by up to $8.1 trillion, with a central estimate of costing $3.5 trillion.

Trump's plans, the group said, would cost at least $1.45 trillion on the low end and up to $15.15 trillion over a decade, with a central estimate of $7.5 trillion.

In the current analysis, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said ending taxation of Social Security benefits, as Trump has proposed, will remove as much as $950 billion in revenue from the program over a decade, and ending taxes on tips and overtime wages could deny it more than $1 trillion. It also concluded that tariffs promoted by Trump as a way to cut imports and spur manufacturing in the U.S. but which most economists say would increase costs on Americans, as well as plans for a mass deportation of immigrants in the country illegally, could cost the program as much as $750 billion over 10 years.

Workers in the country illegally cannot collect Social Security benefits but still pay billions in payroll taxes, including those that go into bolstering Social Security.

Social Security, while doling out benefits to retirees, their families and disabled workers, is paid for through a trust fund supported largely by current payroll tax collection, not merely those that workers contributed while they were employed. Under the law, if revenues were to fall short of benefits, benefits would have to be reduced unless additional revenue, through taxes or other means, were added to the trust funds.

There were some 2.3 million Social Security beneficiaries living in Michigan as of December 2023.

Responding to the report, Trump Campaign National Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt maintained Trump protected Social Security during his previous term. "By unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history and put Social Security on a stronger footing for generations to come," she said.

Trump, however, also saw historic job losses due to the COVID-19 shutdowns at the end of that term, while Democratic President Joe Biden's tenure has seen some 16 million new jobs created, though there was a period of particularly high inflation for much of that time that offset wage gains. As for the Social Security trust funds, CBO estimated they would be exhausted in 2030 in 2017, Trump's first year in office; that moved only a year out, to 2031, in his last year in office in 2020.

“Donald Trump’s agenda poses an imminent threat to Social Security, and seniors could have their benefits cut by a third," said Joseph Costello, a spokesman for the Harris campaign. "This is yet another reason that Americans simply cannot afford the risk of another Trump term."

Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

This story has been updated to add new information.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Report: Trump's plans could force Social Security cuts in 6 years

Social Security funds could run out in 6 years under Trump plans: Analysis
Aris Folley
Mon, October 21, 2024 



Social Security’s trust fund reserves could be depleted as early as 2031 under former President Trump’s proposals, several years earlier than recent projections, according to an analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).

In an analysis published Monday, the fiscal watchdog weighed the impact several Trump proposals — including his plan to end taxation of Social Security benefits, scrap taxes on tips and overtime, impose new tariffs and expand deportations — would have on Social Security’s finances over the coming years, were he to return to the White House and implement them.

The combined trust funds for Social Security retirement and disability benefits are currently projected by the program’s trustees to run out in 2035, a year later than previously expected, after economic growth exceeded expectations last year.

But under Trump’s proposals, the CRFB estimated funds could run out by 2031 while increasing Social Security’s cash deficit $2.3 trillion between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2035.

In a closer look at the price tag, the CRFB said its central estimate found the biggest cost stemmed from Trump’s proposal to do away with taxation of Social Security benefits — a move that would cost $950 billion.

The next big-ticket item, ending payroll taxes on tips and overtime pay, would cost about $900 billion, while proposed changes on tariffs and immigration could add $400 billion to Social Security’s cash deficit.

Ending taxes on tips and overtime pay would lead to a reduction in “payroll tax collection accruing to the Social Security trust funds,” and imposing large tariffs on imports could “either increase cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) through higher inflation or reduce taxable payroll,” the analysis stated.

The CRFB also said expanding deportations could lead to fewer “immigrant workers paying into the Social Security trust funds.”

Trump’s campaign slammed the analysis in a statement Monday.

“The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong throughout the years. President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security in his first term, and President Trump will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term,” Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement, while instead pointing the finger at Vice President Harris, saying immigration under her agenda “would cause Social Security to buckle and collapse.”

The CRFB said Harris’s plans to increase border security and extend some parts of Trump’s signature 2017 tax law could “expand Social Security’s deficits by reducing revenue collection from payroll taxes and taxation of benefits.” But the group said her campaign’s proposal overall would not “have large effects on Social Security trust fund solvency.”

“At the same time, increases in the minimum wage and various tax compliance measures would likely reduce Social Security’s deficits by boosting payroll tax collection,” the CRFB said. “On net, these changes are likely to modestly increase ten-year deficits and advance insolvency by several weeks or months.”

The watchdog additionally forecast potentially bigger cuts to benefits upon insolvency under Trump’s proposals than under current law. The group estimated a 33 percent cut to benefits after tax for roughly half of beneficiaries under Trump’s plans, compared to 23 percent under current law.

“But they would be cut by closer to 30 percent for the seniors with just enough income to be paying taxes on benefits, 26 percent for a household with income in retirement at about $100,000 per year, and 3 percent for the very highest income households,” the group said while assessing the potential impact of Trump’s proposed policies thus far.

Trump has said on the campaign trail that he will not “cut one cent from Social Security.” But experts say that lawmakers will likely need to find common ground on hiking taxes or reducing benefits, or both, to prevent across-the-board benefits cuts if the program goes insolvent in the years ahead.

“Restoring solvency over the next 75 years would require the equivalent of reducing all future benefits by 24 percent or increasing revenue by 35 percent,” the CRFB said in its analysis.

Recent scoring from the group on Trump’s previous Medicare proposals have been more favorable for the former president, however. A CRFB analysis looking at his last budget proposal as president found the proposals offered at the time would have “strengthened” Medicare’s fiscal position and “modestly slowed” its cost growth.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. 



Trump's policies would jeopardize Social Security, report finds. 'Beyond irresponsible,' says one expert.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, tax cuts, and deportations would run the program dry earlier than expected.

Janna Herron
·Senior Columnist
Updated Mon, October 21, 2024 

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Seniors would face heftier cuts to their Social Security benefits sooner than expected if Donald Trump wins the presidential election and his campaign promises are implemented, a new analysis found.

The reserve fund for Social Security would run empty by 2031 instead of the current estimate of 2034 if Trump's tax breaks, tariffs, and mass deportations are imposed, according to a new report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).

At that time, Social Security benefits would be cut by 30% to 31%, reaching 33% by 2035. If Social Security remains on the current trajectory, the reduction would be 23% by 2035.

"Social Security is nine years from insolvency, and neither campaign has a plan to solve it," said Marc Goldwein, a senior policy director for CRFB, a nonpartisan public policy organization. "But President Trump's plans would make it much, much worse."


Though not considered in this report, Goldwein also added that the policies would hurt Medicare's funding as well. Payroll taxes, specifically FICA taxes, fund both Social Security and Medicare.

While there are real questions if all these policies would be enacted should Trump win a second term, simply adding to existing concerns over Social Security's solvency could be enough to drive people to make poorer financial decisions.

"It’s beyond irresponsible, toying with people’s retirement," Laurence Kotlikoff, a professor of economics at Boston University and an expert on Social Security. "We already have too many people taking benefits too early, forfeiting hundreds of thousands of dollars in benefits."

Read more: Do you pay taxes on Social Security?

'They're paying into the Social Security program'

The report considered Trump's promises to get rid of taxes on Social Security benefits, tips, and overtime as well as his vow to deport undocumented immigrants and impose a 10% to 20% tariff on imported goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.

By not taxing Social Security benefits — which directly go to Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds — Social Security would lose $950 billion, the analysis found.

Another $900 billion would be lost to the elimination of taxes on overtime and tips, the former of which is subject to FICA taxes and the latter must be reported at tax time.

The tariffs and deportations would reduce the money going to Social Security by $400 billion. In total, that's $2.25 trillion less than would be collected under current law.

Goldwein noted that tariffs increase Social Security spending because tariffs increase prices, boosting inflation. Benefits are indexed to inflation, so they would also increase with consumer prices. The Social Security Administration would then have to pay out more in benefits.

Undocumented immigrants also add to Social Security's coffers, Goldwein said.

"The vast majority of undocumented immigrants are of working age. Many of them work in jobs where they pay taxes either because they gain some legal status after they've gotten here, or they write down a random Social Security number," he said.

"Either way, they're paying into the Social Security program."

In fact, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the recent surge in immigrants is expected to bring in $348 billion in Social Security taxes over the 2024–2034 period. The CRFB report assumes this would be reduced to $100 billion to $150 billion under Trump's immigration policies.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump delivers remarks on the damage and federal response to Hurricane Helene on Oct. 21 in Swannanoa, N.C. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Another domino?

While the report only focuses on Social Security, Medicare would also be threatened, said Goldwein, who noted that he might do an additional analysis on that.

Right now, the reserves that Medicare uses for hospital coverage — known as Medicare Part A — are expected to run out in 2036. Eliminating just the taxes on Social Security benefits would move up that date to 2030.

Add in the other tax breaks, tariffs, and deportations, and "those extra should make it even more severe," Goldwein said. "Medicare would likely be insolvent before 2030 under these proposals."

The Medicare trustees have previously said the fund's insolvency could first cause delays in payments to health plans and hospitals. Additionally, seniors' "access to healthcare services could rapidly be curtailed."

The real-life consequences

The severity of Social Security cuts would differ by income. The report found that about half of beneficiaries would see the full 33% cut — typically those with lower incomes who don't pay taxes on benefits now. In 2024, an individual with income below $25,000 does not have to pay taxes on their benefits. That amount is $32,000 for a married couple filing jointly.

Seniors with just enough income to pay taxes would see a 30% cut to their benefits, while those with $100,000 in annual income in retirement would experience a 26% reduction. The very highest income retirees would only see a 3% nick off their benefits.

The cuts are regressive partly because the tax on Social Security benefits is progressive, meaning people are taxed more if they have higher incomes. Those with the top incomes would see a tax break that would largely offset the cut in their benefits.

"Those who are impacted, the majority of them are in the middle class," said Emmanuel Eliason, a certified financial planner in Centennial, Colo. "So less money in the pocket means that their lifestyle may have to be adjusted."

Read more: How to find out your 2025 Social Security COLA increase

The reserve fund for Social Security would run empty by 2031 instead of the current estimate of 2034 if Donald Trump's tax breaks, tariffs, and mass deportations are imposed, new report shows. (AP Foto/Jenny Kane, Archivo)

For those who rely on Social Security for the majority of their income, a cut like this could be devastating, said Monica Dwyer, senior vice president at Harvest Financial Advisors in West Chester, Ohio.

"It will increase the need for government aid such as affordable housing, Medicaid, and other social services, and it will likely mean more homelessness than we have ever seen," she said.

Just the threat of steeper Social Security reductions could hurt people's financial planning.

A survey last year from asset management company Schroders found that the top reason workers said they plan to take benefits before 70 is because they're concerned Social Security could stop paying out before they reach that age.

But if they wait until 70, their benefits would be larger — 8% more every year past full retirement age. Many experts encourage people to wait as long as possible to claim to get the bigger benefit.

"Sometimes the fear about whether Social Security is going to be available encourages people to make bad Social Security decisions," Dwyer said. "I am very concerned that [the effect of Trump's proposals] will make people’s irrational thinking worse."

Janna Herron is a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @JannaHerron.


Donald Trump's plans would drain Social Security years earlier than expected, report says

William Gavin
Mon, October 21, 2024 

Former President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump - Photo: Win McNamee (Getty Images)

Former President Donald Trump’s plans to slash taxes are expected to “dramatically” weaken Social Security’s finances — and make the program insolvent three years ahead of schedule.

The Social Security Administration (SSA), the government agency that administers the program’s benefits to Americans, expects its coffers to be depleted by 2035, according to a May report. But proposals Trump has made on the campaign trail would exhaust Social Security by 2031 or 2032 at the latest, according to a report released Monday by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).

As of 2024, almost 68 million Americans receive a check from the SSA each month. The vast majority of those people are at least 65 years old and many depend entirely on the program for income after retiring, the National Institution on Retirement Security found in 2020.

“SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY!” the Republican presidential nominee wrote in July on his social media platform, Truth Social.

Recipients of benefits must pay federal income taxes if their combined income is higher than $25,000 each year if they file individually, or $32,000 for joint filers. That revenue helps helps fund the Social Security and Medicare Hospital Insurance trust funds.

Without that funding — combined with the many other tax cuts Trump has proposed — and the former president’s plans to impose massive tariffs and deport unauthorized immigrants, Social Security’s funding will be cut by as much as $2.75 trillion.

Ending taxation of Social Security benefits alone could cut between $850 billion and $950 billion from its cash reserves, while ending taxes on overtime pay and tips would slash anywhere between $150 billion and $1.05 trillion. Heavily restricting immigration and imposing tariffs would reduce the balance by between $300 billion and $750 billion, according to the CRFB.

After Social Security is insolvent, the program’s spending would be limited and likely result in a $16,500 cut in annual benefits for the typical dual-income couple retiring in 2033, the CRFB said.

Under current laws, benefits would have to be cut by 23% by 2035, according to the Congressional Budget office. Trump’s plans would raise that benefit cut to 33% by 2035, according to the CRFB. Although, some beneficiaries would likely see their real after-tax benefits cut by smaller percentages.

In the past, Trump has said he will “not cut one cent” from the program, nor will he change the retirement age. In a town hall last year, he proposed taking advantage of the “incredible wealth under our feet” by drilling for more oil and natural gas to grow the economy. However, that would cover less than 4% of Social Security’s shortfall, the CRFB said last year, noting that opening up “all federal land” to drilling couldn’t solve that problem.