It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, December 03, 2024
Indigenous mining complicates Brazil’s fight against illegal gold
The involvement of Indigenous people in illegal gold hunting, lured by the prospect of easy money due to record prices, has made Brazil’s task of cracking down on wildcat mining in the Amazon far harder, environmental agents and police say.
The Munduruku territory, a reservation the size of Switzerland on the Tapajos river, a major Amazon tributary, has become a hot spot for illegal mining, which Brazilian law bans on Indigenous land.
But increasingly, Munduruku tribe members are entering the illegal trade that is backed by organized crime.
On a recent enforcement operation by Brazil’s environmental protection agency IBAMA, agents swooped down in helicopters on muddy tailing ponds to find a camp in a clearing, but the miners had fled, alerted by the noise of the approaching choppers.
A pressure cooker on a gas stove was still hot, and dogs barked. The agents destroyed two motors used to pump water through filters to trap nuggets of gold. They said the hammocks and clothing were evidence the miners were Indigenous.
Gold mining has brought division within the Munduruku tribe, a majority of whom believe it is wrong, though their leaders say lack of government assistance forces people to seek other ways to deal with poverty.
On one recent morning, panhandler Samuel Manga Bal found 60 grams of gold on the river: 20 times his usual daily amount.
But his brother Domingo was furious and threatened to kill him if he continued, so he was forced to leave their village.
“He wanted me gone,” said Manga Bal, now living off growing manioc, but intending to return to mining when he can.
“I’m going to go back to mining, because things are so bad now. We don’t even have coffee, there’s no sugar, nothing, no food, just manioc flower.”
The reservation is located in the municipality of Jacareacanga, a booming town of 26,000 people, where large 4×4 pickups roar along mostly unpaved streets and shops openly buy gold from miners. Trucks arrive carrying heavy backhoes and uploaders used to dig prospecting ponds. Money-maker
Despite visible poverty, Jacareacanga’s per capita GDP is 90,000 reais ($15,157.38), higher than Sao Paulo, Brazil’s largest metropolis, a sure sign of the illegal wealth gold mining is generating.
Very little taxation is collected, even though the trading of gold is public for all to see in Jacareacanga.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has pledged to wipe out illegal mining that boomed under his far-right predecessor Jair Bolsonaro and has become harder to repress across the Amazon.
Evicting miners has become more difficult on the Munduruku territory now that tribe members are looking for gold. Tribal leaders estimate 40% of the gold mining on the reservation is carried out by Indigenous people today.
To make matter worse, local police officers have been taking bribes from a gold mining business to turn a blind eye, according to a document seen by Reuters.
In a village 10 minutes away by boat, local Chief Jonathan Kaba Biorebu said the way to stop illegal mining is to tap funding for sustainable development. He suggested selling carbon credits to companies seeking offsets for pollution.
His village has benefited from a carbon credit deal signed by the local Pusuru Indigenous Association that plans to build 40 wells for drinking water. The association built its offices in the Jacareacanga with carbon credit funding.
But Kaba Biorebu is skeptical that carbon credit will become so common as to generate enough income to replace gold mining.
The non-Indigenous population of Jacareacanga are all for legalizing the informal mining, known as “garimpo” in Portuguese.
“The income here is gold mining,” said general store owner Claudemir Pereira. “The majority of the population here depends on this, even the indigenous people, many of whom work mine for gold to survive.”
The government coordinator for expelling gold mining from Indigenous territories, Nilton Tubino, dismissed legalization and said big mining companies have lobbied against it. A bill to legalize informal mining is stalled in Congress.
(By Ricardo Brito, Adriano Machado and Anthony Boadle; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)
Trump tariffs could reshape global copper landscape
Frik Els | December 3, 2024 | US, Canada, Mexico copper trade is intertwined. Stock Image.
Whether the incoming Trump administration will quickly follow through with 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico or whether the surprisingly stiff trade sanctions are more of a negotiating tactic won’t become clear for months.
A review of the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) was scheduled for 2026 but could be pulled forward since the tariffs would all but nullify the free trade accord signed by Trump during his first term in office.
In a note, the copper service of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence points out that if implemented (and that remains a big if because Trump tied the sanctions to border security) these tariffs will have reverberations not only across the copper value chain but also for end-use copper demand in the region. More so should Canada and Mexico decide that retaliation is the only option that remains. While dwarfed by the energy and crude oil trade between the two countries, Canada is a major supplier to the US copper market. Given its widespread use, disruptions to copper supply could have many downstream effects, particularly in the automotive sector which constitutes the third largest portion of the more than $900 billion US-Canada yearly bilateral trade
. According to Benchmark, US imports of refined copper in 2023 totalled 767kt and in this year through September 2024, were at around 691kt. Most of the imports are from Chile, followed by Canada and Peru.
Imports from Canada and Mexico were 128kt and 14kt, respectively, in 2023 representing around 16% of total US imports. The US also exported 33kt of refined copper last year (net of re-exports). While Canada is a sizable supplier of cathodes, the country’s exports of copper and copper alloy semi-finished products to the US constituted a full 42% or 207kt of the total in 2023.
Benchmark says imports of semis from Canada are predominantly for copper wire rod with the country meeting over 80% of the US wire rod import requirements over the past decade.
Canadian and Mexican imports would likely not be cost-competitive at high tariff levels and would need to be procured from elsewhere for instance refined copper from Chile and semis from Korea, Japan or India, redrawing the copper landscape in the process, says Benchmark:
“Besides a rejig of trade flows, this should also in theory support domestic production with investment into production capability.
“IRA has shown that with the right incentives, US can build the domestic industry quickly and compete with the imports.
“However at the moment, no real incentives are proposed besides increasing the imported material costs for the US based manufacturers.”
Copper for delivery in March bounced on Tuesday trading at $4.20 a pound ($9,260 a tonne) in early afternoon trade in Chicago, up 1.7% on the day. The price of the bellwether metal is still trading well below recent highs and is now trading 6% below levels held before the US presidential election.
Tuesday’s rise was ascribed to a weaker dollar and reports that Chinese importers are reluctant to buy US scrap given the uncertainty surrounding Trump, who has threatened to add to already punitive levies on Chinese exports.
So far this year China imported some 300kt of copper scrap from the US, supplying over 17% of China’s annual demand and making the US the top scrap exporter to the country.
Benchmark says the situation is reminiscent of 2018, when China raised tariffs on US-origin copper scrap to 25% in response to Trump’s trade war with the country.
This time around the US may decide to restrict exports of secondary copper to feed the domestic industry and make up for any shortfall due to disruption caused by tariffs on its closest trading partners.
Trump should focus on ‘real adversaries’ instead of targeting Canada: expert
One expert says that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump should spend more time focusing on oversees adversaries rather than putting his country’s relationship with its North American allies at risk by threatening to impose sweeping tariffs on imported goods.
Sean King, senior VP at New York-based lobbying firm Park Strategies, told BNN Bloomberg in a Monday interview that relations between Canada and the U.S. “should be very good” considering the many cultural and economic ties between the neighbouring countries.
“I take a wider geostrategic view of this, where the U.S. is only five per cent of the world’s population, and I see us with real rivals and real enemies whether it’s China, Russia, North Korea, or Iran, and I just don’t count Mexico and Canada among those, especially not Canada,” he said.
Canada-U.S. relations have been strained since Trump announced plans last month to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods entering the U.S. on his first day in office if concerns around border security aren’t addressed.
Canadian officials and business leaders swiftly responded by saying tariffs would hurt workers on either side of the border and likely put upward pressure on inflation in the U.S. – an issue Trump promised to address throughout his presidential campaign. Trudeau’s meeting with Trump
Last week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Florida for a meeting with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate, where the two leaders discussed a variety of issues including the tariff threat and Trump’s border concerns.
King said that while it may have been difficult for Trudeau to “go down there and kiss the ring,” his decision to meet with Trump and a number of his nominated cabinet members was a good idea.
“I think the takeaways and the body language were positive. Trump obviously showed he was taking the meeting very seriously. He hosted him at his home, and the fact that he had such high-level, relevant incoming cabinet officials gives me confidence that they talked real turkey,” he said.
The meeting included incoming U.S. Commerce Secretary and trade czar Howard Lutnick, incoming Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and incoming National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Bloomberg reported Saturday.
Trudeau’s delegation included his Chief of Staff Katie Telford as well as Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to Washington, according to Bloomberg.
King said that officials such as Lutnick, Burgum and Waltz “are the real people that will handle tariffs and (border) security” in Trump’s incoming administration.
‘Inflationary tariffs’
The risk of Trump’s proposed tariffs causing an uptick in inflation in the U.S. is an argument that Trudeau and his team should have been able to use as a reason to potentially exempt Canada from them, King said, especially given the U.S.’s reliance on Canadian oil.
“President Biden unfortunately cancelled the (Keystone XL) pipeline coming into office and Trump has promised to open it up, which was a big winner in states like Pennsylvania, which got him the election,” he said.
“So, if anything, Trump’s own plans call for an increase of Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. because he wants more oil from you, which I want too. I’d rather get it from Canada than the likes of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia or whoever else.”
King added that as Trump touts his tariff plans as a way to create a more self-sufficient U.S. economy, he should be more transparent about who exactly will be paying the levy.
“Trump, who himself went to Wharton and likes to tell us how smart he is, should at least be honest with people that these inflationary tariffs are paid by the U.S. importer, they’re not paid by the selling country,” he said.
“So, yes, they’re inflationary, Americans pay them, and I think that we want more oil from Canada so we’re going to have to suck it up and accept a bigger Canadian trade surplus, at least in the short term.”
Integrated market
King said that another factor complicating Trump’s tariff plan is the inextricable nature of the Canada-U.S. supply chain.
“The U.S. and Canada could not live without each other… I heard one person say over the weekend that there’s no such thing as an American car or a Canadian car, there’s a North American car, because it really is an integrated market,” he said.
King argued that when it comes to border safety concerns, Canada and Mexico should be treated differently, as data suggests the southern U.S. border is where the vast majority of illegal crossings occur.
“It’s so unfair to lump (Canada) in with Mexico. For the latest 12-month period on record that I saw, Canada is responsible for 0.6 per cent of illegal crossings into the U.S.,” he said.
“Sure, there are things to talk about… but I think we can work through these things and hopefully avoid tariffs, keep our friends close, rally democracies together, and focus our time on our real adversaries.”
With files from Bloomberg News
Joly touts 'private' diplomacy as Mexico criticizes Canada's culture, trade
OTTAWA — Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly is not escalating a war of words with Mexico, after the Mexican president criticized Canada’s culture and its framing of border issues.
“I fundamentally believe that many conversations, when it comes to diplomacy, are always better when they remain private,” Joly said Monday during a teleconference from Brussels.
The rift between the two trading partners started with U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s declaration that he plans to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all goods from both countries unless they stop the flow of migrants and illegal drugs into the U.S.
Several federal and provincial officials in Canada responded by saying the issues at the Canadian border are vastly different from the Mexican border. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, for example, has voiced concerns that the level of Chinese investment in Mexico goes against the economic-security goals of Ottawa and Washington.
Some premiers have called on Canada to negotiate a trade deal with Washington independent from Mexico, ahead of the 2026 review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, which replaced NAFTA during Trump’s last tenure in the White House.
In a Monday press conference, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico “must be respected, especially by its trading partners.”
She also noted that Canada has “a very serious problem with fentanyl consumption,” more than Mexico, and possibly as a result of some drug-decriminalization measures.
“We are not going to fall for a provocation of which country is better,” she said, chalking some criticism from Canada up to political pandering.
“Mexico should not be used as part of (Canadian) electoral campaigns,” she said.
Yet Sheinbaum also said Canada “could only wish they had the cultural riches Mexico has,” saying her country has civilizations dating back thousands of years.
Asked to respond, Joly said she is reaching out to Mexican officials after speaking with the U.S., including about the “very important trade agreement” that includes all three countries.
“I know there has been many conversations in Canada about how we can work together and how we can, at the same time, protect our interests,” she said.
“We have a positive relationship with Mexico, and we need to work with the country; that’s definitely my goal.”
Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, said tensions between both countries played out in the NAFTA renegotiation, when there was limited communication between Ottawa and Mexico City.
“The Canada-Mexico relationship has always been the weakest part of the triangle of North America,” he said.
“There was a lot of feeling during the (CUSMA) negotiations that Mexico was willing to go it alone, and that Canada particularly toward the end was on the outside looking in, and had to fight its way back to the table.”
He said Washington would rather have a trade pact with all three countries so it can limit the time and attention it needs on continental issues.
“The U.S. is probably the most trilateral of all three countries,” he said, with a caveat.
“I think Donald Trump looks at this going into 2026 and says, ‘Great, divide and conquer.’”
Sands added that Sheinbaum and her predecessor have implemented nationalist policies that have been at odds with Washington.
“The Mexican government has been moving in a direction which is antithetical to the North American project (through) nationalizing parts of the economy, by reversing energy reforms, by doing deals with the cartels. (They are) sometimes working co-operatively with the Americans in the borders, and sometimes not.”
Sheinbaum indicated a week ago that she would be writing a letter to Trudeau. That has not been made public, although she did release a letter she had sent to Trump.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 3, 2024.
— With files from The Associated Press and Kelly Geraldine Malone in Washington
Dylan Robertson, The Canadian Press
Canada mining group uses China ban to push back on Trump tariffs
Mining Association of Canada president and CEO Pierre Gratton.
Credit: Mining Association of Canada
China’s move to ban exports of rare metals to the US underscores the need for trade cooperation between mineral-rich Canada and its southern neighbor.
That’s the message from the Mining Association of Canada, which argued that China’s decision to curb shipments of gallium, germanium and other key metals to the US is “a stark reminder of the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, particularly on the reliable supply of critical minerals.”
The statement from the mining association follows the escalation of trade tensions with the US, after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to slap 25% tariffs on all goods coming from Canada and Mexico unless the countries each do more to stem migration and fentanyl.
“Imposing tariffs on Canadian mineral and metal exports to the US would run counter to the shared goals of secure and reliable supply chains,” Pierre Gratton, the mining association’s president, said in Tuesday’s statement. “Such measures risk disrupting the essential flow of these resources, undermining the competitiveness of North American industries, and exacerbating vulnerabilities in critical mineral supply chains that both nations are working to address.”
More than half of Canada’s mineral exports — valued at more than C$80 billion ($56.9 billion) — were destined for the US in 2022, according to the Canadian group. Its members include Barrick Gold Corp., Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Cameco Corp., BHP Group and others.
Meanwhile, Vancouver-based metals producer Teck Resources Ltd., one of the world’s largest integrated germanium producers, said it’s looking at ways to boost its output of the metal in the wake of China’s export ban.
Germanium’s uses include fiber optics, night-vision goggles and space exploration. Most satellites are powered with germanium-based solar cells. Canada was responsible for supplying nearly half of the US’s import needs of germanium between 2019 and 2022, according to the US Geological Survey.
(By Jacob Lorinc)
Trudeau calls meeting with opposition leaders about Canada-U.S. border plan
Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc says Canada is committed to increasing the number of RCMP officers patrolling the U.S. border between ports of entry, though he said specific details are still to come.
Appearing at the public safety committee Tuesday, LeBlanc couldn’t provide exact specifics on the number of extra “boots on the ground,” but said those details will be announced in the coming weeks.
“We haven’t made, as a government, those final decisions,” LeBlanc told the committee, in response to questions from Conservative MP Raquel Dancho.
“There will be additional resources. Human and equipment. We will be making announcements in terms of procurement and personnel before (Jan. 20).”
That is the inauguration day of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump, who last week threatened Canada with 25 per cent tariffs if Canada didn’t do more to stem the passage of people and illegal drugs across the border.
Trudeau met with opposition leaders in his office on Parliament Hill on Tuesday morning to brief them on the government’s plan for the Canada-U.S. border.
Trudeau’s office said he initiated the meeting, which lasted about an hour.
Trudeau met with premiers virtually in an emergency first ministers' meeting Nov. 27, two days after Trump’s threat, and flew with LeBlanc to Florida on Nov. 29, where they dined with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre emerged from the meeting to say that he will make the argument with everyone he can that Trump’s suggested tariffs will make life more expensive for Americans.
Poilievre said his demands are for Trudeau to fix the “disorder” at the border and the immigration system, as well as reverse economic damages he says were caused by the carbon price and an emissions cap on oil and gas production.
RCMP Commissioner Michael Duheme also appeared before the committee, which is reviewing departmental spending requests — though much of the questioning related to border security.
Duheme told the committee the RCMP did not have intelligence about where people might try to cross the U.S. border, which would inform where to deploy additional officers and how many.
Dancho pressed Duheme in relation to Trump’s tariff threats, rather than reacting to surges coming into Canada at particular spots on the border.
“They’re saying right now this is happening. The people and drugs coming from Canada to the U.S. is their concern,” Dancho said, adding that Trump’s tariffs would send Canada into an economic recession.
Duheme said the challenging part is it’s only a crime once people or drugs actually cross into the U.S.
“There’s collaboration (with U.S. Customs and Border Protection). But I think it’s really important to identify those hot areas based on the position that the U.S. will take.”
LeBlanc said Monday the RCMP and Canada Border Services Agency are providing a list of items that could enhance their existing capabilities at the border, such as drones or helicopters equipped with infrared sensors and night vision.
Speaking to reporters outside the committee, Duheme said protecting the border is a shared responsibility between both countries.
“The vested interests we have in the border (are) the same as the Americans,” Duheme said.
“You heard fentanyl, you heard firearms are coming up from the south. So it’s a shared responsibility.”
The flow of illegal firearms is a topic LeBlanc said he and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raised with Trump at their dinner Friday night.
“The prime minister did say, when they were talking about their concerns around fentanyl and precursor chemicals and drugs, that we have for a long time worried about illegal firearms smuggled into Canada,” LeBlanc told the committee.
“We made that point to (Trump) that that was something we wanted to do in partnership with them.”
LeBlanc also told reporters on Monday that his department is mulling over expanding the CBSA’s mandate to include border patrol between ports of entry. Right now, that responsibility falls on the RCMP.
But LeBlanc said such a move would require a legislative change.
“We’re always looking at good ideas and we’re not dismissing this one, but it’s not a priority for us in terms of arriving at the conclusion we want,” LeBlanc said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 3, 2024.
Oil Sands Carbon Capture Project Draws First Nations’ Scrutiny
By Robert Tuttle,
Bloomberg News
December 03, 2024
Trump has pledged to cut American energy bills in half within 18 months, something that could be made harder if a 25% premium is added to Canadian oil imports
(Bloomberg) -- A proposed carbon-capture and storage system designed to slash emissions from Canada’s oil sands is drawing scrutiny from local Indigenous communities, who are requesting that the project be subject to an impact assessment.
A group of eight First Nations in northern Alberta have asked the federal government to subject the project to the Impact Assessment Act because of its potential environmental effects, according to a letter filed by the groups. That designation would subject the project to greater regulatory scrutiny, potentially slowing its rollout and threatening the industry’s goal of cutting emissions by 22 million metric tons by 2030.
The C$16 billion ($11 billion) project would strip carbon dioxide from oil sands sites and transport the gas down a carbon trunk line for injection underground near the Cold Lake area of Alberta. It’s being spearheaded by the Pathways Alliance, a group of Canada’s largest oil sands producers, which recently requested proposals to pipe manufacturers for building the carbon trunk line. Pathways didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Many in the oil industry and Alberta’s government have opposed the Impact Assessment Act, saying it infringes on the province’s jurisdiction over natural resources. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said last week that she’s taking the federal government to court over revisions to the act that were made after Canada’s Supreme Court partly ruled the original legislation was unconstitutional.
The provincial government has told Ontario Power Generation to begin discussions to determine community support for all types of new energy generation, including nuclear, at three sites in the southern part of the province.
The sites are all in the south of Ontario, in regions the government says are experiencing significant growth (Image: OPG)
Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator has said the province's demand for electricity is forecast to increase by 75% by 2050 - the equivalent of adding four and a half cities the size of Toronto to the grid, the Government of Ontario said. The increase in demand is being driven by Ontario's rapid increase in population, new manufacturing facilities, advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence data centres, the electrification of industry, and the charging energy required for electric vehicles.
"While the province is already on track to meet demands through 2035 with major projects already announced, including Canada's first small modular reactor and the largest competitive energy procurement in Ontario's history, the province will need 16,000 additional megawatts of generation, in addition to new transmission to meet demand in 2050," the government added.
Early community engagement is a critical part of the province's approach to new energy generation. These "early conversations" ( will look at how communities would be supported and potential benefits to them from generation projects, including equity participation for Indigenous communities, funding for municipal host communities to support community infrastructure investments and attraction of co-located industry, additional income from municipal property taxes, and associated jobs and economic development for municipalities and Indigenous communities.
The three sites owned by Ontario Power Generation (OPG) - already Ontario's largest generator - that have been singled out by the government for discussions with Indigenous, community and municipal leaders are at Wesleyville in Port Hope, Nanticoke in Haldimand County and Lambton in St Clair. These sites are already zoned for electricity generation, have proximity to transmission, and are located in Southern Ontario, within regions experiencing significant growth, according to the provincial government.
"As we prepare for the largest expansion of electricity generation in over 30 years, our government is embracing an important opportunity for economic reconciliation among First Nations communities and workers," Ontario Minister of Indigenous Affairs and First Nations Economic Reconciliation Greg Rickford said. "By working together with Ontario Power Generation, we are ensuring that First Nations communities are not just part of the conversation, but active participants in shaping a prosperous, sustainable energy future."
OPG President and CEO Ken Hartwick said the company places "great importance" on relationships with host communities, neighbours, and the Indigenous Nations on whose traditional territory it operates. "We look forward to meeting with municipalities and Nations to understand their perspectives and aspirations for their communities," he said.
Clean and reliable baseload electricity from nuclear and hydroelectricity are prioritised in the government's vision document, Ontario's Affordable Energy Future, released in October. The provincial government is already supporting Bruce Power in pre-development work on the province's first large-scale nuclear build in 30 years, as well as OPG's plans for four small modular reactors at its Darlington site and the refurbishment of the Pickering Nuclear Generation Station, as part of what Minister of Energy and Electrification Stephen Lecce said is Ontario's largest expansion of electricity generation in more than thirty years. "To meet soaring energy demands, we're working with communities to plan ahead and build for our future so that we can generate more power that is reliable and affordable for our families today and tomorrow. Our plan will ensure we keep energy bills down and the power on for generations to come," he said.
About the sites
According to information from OPG, the three sites are already zoned for electricity generation, have proximity to transmission, and are located in Southern Ontario within regions where a lot of growth is taking place.
Wesleyville (Port Hope) covers about 1300 acres, adjacent to Durham Region which hosts Pickering and Darlington nuclear generating stations
Nanticoke (Haldimand County) is a former coal generating site, part of which is currently used for a solar facility. It has existing transmission connection with capacity, railway, and dock
Lambton (St Clair Township) is a former coal generating site with access to railway and deepwater dock, and the potential to re-use some existing site features from previous generation
OPG says it is "in the early stages of understanding each community’s willingness to explore energy development in their community or territory". Projects will only be explored if they have a willing host community and Indigenous participation.
South Africa 'committed to new nuclear and PBMR'
Tuesday, 3 December 2024
The South African government remains committed to the use of nuclear energy and is planning to revive its Pebble Bed Modular Reactor programme and embark on new builds, the Deputy Director General of the Department for Mineral Resources and Energy has said.
The 29 November event was themed Advancing Nuclear Technology’s Contribution for Just Energy Transition, Energy Security and Provincial Economic Development (Image: Africa4Nuclear)
Zizamele Mbambo was speaking at Stand Up4Nuclear South Africa, a joint event held by DMRE in collaboration with Kouga Local Municipality, South African Young Nuclear Professional Society and Women in Nuclear South Africa on 29 November. The event, billed by the Africa4Nuclear group as a chance for school learners and community members to learn about the role of nuclear energy in shaping South Africa’s sustainable future, took place in Jeffreys Bay, in Eastern Cape: the region has previously been earmarked for potential nuclear new-build at Thyspunt.
The South African government is in the process of updating its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP): the DMRE published the Draft IRP2023 in December last year for public comment, and has been working to address the "high interest" the draft has received. "This week as we gather here, the department has been meeting with interested parties to present the updated IRP2023 version," Mbambo said. "In parallel the minister is in the process of establishing an Industry Expert Team to advise on the Nuclear New Build Programme following the withdrawal of Section 34 Determination," he added, referring to the decision in August to withdraw a Ministerial Determination for the procurement of 2500 MWe of new nuclear capacity to allow for further public consultation.
Nuclear energy remains key to South Africa’s low carbon pathway by 2050, Mbambo said, and its role is made "more pertinent" given the planned decommissioning of a significant amount of coal-fired baseload capacity post-2030. "Nuclear power will complement the massive rollout of intermittent renewables to ensure a reliable low carbon electricity supply as well as ensure the grid stability," he said.
"As a government we maintain that all low-carbon energy sources will be key to realise a just energy transition, this includes nuclear energy," he said.
"There is a global growth in the development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Our most ambitious project yet is to promote the use of nuclear power as a critical tool in mitigating climate change through new nuclear builds and Small Modular Reactors in the country. South Africa is currently looking to revitalise our nuclear programme to provide energy security and grid stability through clean, dependable energy. The world once acknowledged our Pebble Bed Modular Reactor Programme (PBMR) as a global first, and we aim to restore our position as a leader in nuclear energy research by bringing to market a working prototype SMR, with supporting fuel production, that can be successfully commercialised. The Department will soon recommend that Cabinet approve the lifting the state of Care and Maintenance on the PBMR to revive this programme in South Africa to create jobs and contribute to the economy," he said.
The PBMR was to have been a small-scale high-temperature reactor using graphite-coated spherical uranium oxycarbide tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel, with helium as the coolant, able to supply process heat as well as generating electricity. Based on well-proved German technology, South Africa had been working on the PBMR project since 1993, and PBMR Ltd was established in 1999 with the intention of developing and marketing the reactor. However, in 2010 the government formally announced its decision no longer to invest in the project, which was then placed under care and maintenance. PBMR Ltd was reincorporated into South African utility Eskom, its sole shareholder, in 2012. In 2020, the company said it was seeking to take PBMR out of care and maintenance and commercialise the business, and issued a request for expressions of interest from would-be investors. South Africa's Stratek Global is also developing the HTMR-100 high temperature modular reactor which is derived from the PBMR programme.
"Electricity is a basic need. Electricity is one of the core elements of a decent standard of living. To this, the National Development Plan 2030 envisioned a future where all South Africans will have access to clean and reliable supply of electricity," Mbambo said, referring to the country's long-term plan to reduce inequality and unemployment, and to eliminate poverty for all South Africans.
"I am here reminding all of us of government policy imperatives that as the Ministry and custodian of Nuclear Industry, our endeavours are not taken in isolation, that its integrated effort to realise the ideals of NDP and the role of nuclear in realising those ambitions."
Long-term safety at Dutch plant assessed
Tuesday, 3 December 2024
An International Atomic Energy Agency team of experts has completed a review of long-term operational safety for the Borssele nuclear power plant in the Netherlands.
The Borssele plant (Image: EPZ)
The 485 MWe (net) pressurised water reactor at Borssele - operated by EPZ - has been in operation since 1973 and accounts for about 3% of the country's total electricity generation. It is scheduled to close in 2033, but the government has requested it remain in operation until 2054, if this can be done safely.
A Safety Aspects of Long-Term Operation (SALTO) peer review is a comprehensive safety review addressing strategy and key elements for the safe long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plants. SALTO missions complement IAEA Operational Safety Review Team (OSART) missions which are designed as a review of programmes and activities essential to operational safety. SALTO peer reviews can be carried out at any time during the lifetime of a nuclear power plant, though according to the IAEA the most suitable time lies within the last 10 years of the plant's originally foreseen operating period. SALTO and OSART reviews are carried out at the request of the IAEA Member State in which the review is to take place.
A Pre-SALTO mission reviews ageing management for safe LTO at an early stage of the preparation prior to the complete implementation of the ageing management activities.
The Pre-SALTO review mission was requested by the country's Authority for Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection (ANVS). During the ten-day mission, held from 19 to 28 November, the team reviewed the plant's preparedness, organisation and programmes for safe LTO.
The team identified two good practices that will be shared with the nuclear industry globally, including: use of a 360 degree imaging system for enhanced planning of ageing management activities to reduce radiation dose to plant personnel; and use of a portable tablet for field inspectors to conduct ageing management inspections of civil structures and record findings.
The team also provided 15 recommendations and suggestions to further improve safe subsequent LTO, including that: the plant should complete the development and implementation of the ageing management programmes for mechanical and electrical components; the plant should enhance the ageing management of civil structures; and the plant should effectively update and implement the human resources strategy to support LTO.
"The team observed that EPZ is preparing for safe continued long-term operation and the plant staff are cooperative, professional, and open to suggestions for improvement," said team leader and IAEA Senior Nuclear Safety Officer Gabor Petofi. "We encourage the plant to address the review findings and implement the remaining LTO-related activities as planned."
EPZ CEO Carlo Wolters said: "We appreciate the IAEA's support to our plant in ageing management and preparation for safe subsequent LTO. It is very important for us to get an external view of our preparations in an early phase. The competencies and experience of the IAEA team enabled an effective identification of our areas for improvements. The results of this mission will help us to improve our activities for safe subsequent LTO and to further align them with IAEA safety standards."
A draft report has been provided to plant management and ANVS. They have the opportunity to make factual comments on the draft, with the final report to be submitted to them and the Dutch government within three months.
Newcleo submits SMR design for UK assessment
Monday, 2 December 2024
France-headquartered innovative reactor developer Newcleo has submitted an application to the UK Department of Energy Security and Net Zero for approval to enter the Generic Design Assessment for its LFR-AS-200 small modular lead-cooled fast reactor.
(Image: Newcleo)
Generic Design Assessment (GDA) is a process carried out by the Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) and the Environment Agency (EA) - and where applicable Natural Resources Wales - to assess the safety, security, and environmental protection aspects of a nuclear power plant design that is intended to be deployed in Great Britain. Successful completion of the GDA culminates in the issue of a Design Acceptance Confirmation from the ONR and a Statement of Design Acceptability from the EA. In May 2021, BEIS opened the GDA process to advanced nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors (SMRs).
Newcleo has now applied for a GDA of its commercial-scale 200 MWe lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR). It said it aims to complete a two-step GDA with the ONR and EA, including a fundamental assessment of its technology by the regulators. Subject to acceptance by the UK Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), the GDA would take around two years, starting in early 2025.
"This application reflects the immense progress that Newcleo Group has made both in the growth of their global capability as well as the advancement of their research, development, and design activities," the company said. It noted that it becomes the only advanced modular reactor developer to submit applications for both GDA and Regulatory Justification Decision in the UK.
In April this year, the Nuclear Industry Association applied to the UK government for a justification decision for Newcleo's LFR-AS-200. Such a decision is required for the operation of a new nuclear technology in the country.
The first step of Paris-headquartered Newcleo's delivery roadmap will be the design and construction of the first-of-a-kind 30 MWe lead-cooled fast reactor to be deployed in France by 2030, followed by a 200 MWe commercial unit in the UK by 2033.
At the same time, Newcleo will directly invest in a mixed uranium/plutonium oxide (MOX) plant to fuel its reactors. In June 2022, Newcleo announced it had contracted France's Orano for feasibility studies on the establishment of a MOX production plant.
In October, the European Commission selected nine small modular reactor projects - including Newcleo's LFR - in the initial round of applications to form Project Working Groups under the European Industrial Alliance on SMRs.
"We are delighted to be able to proceed with this next step of Newcleo’s journey in the UK," said Newcleo CEO Stefano Buono. "Thanks to our growth as a global team, our lead-cooled fast reactor design has reached new levels of maturity, as has our confidence in the continued development and refinement of our technologies.
"New nuclear technologies have an immense potential to play a significant role in the decarbonisation of the UK's energy mix as well its energy security, and we are excited to demonstrate what Newcleo can bring to this challenge. We look forward to the prospect of working with the relevant authorities and regulators throughout the GDA process."
Stéphane Calpena, global licensing and nuclear safety director at Newcleo, added: "This GDA submission in the UK follows 18 months of intensive technical discussions with the French regulator and international experts about the Newcleo LFR design, the MOX manufacturing plant design along with their related safety options. These moves in the UK and France reflects our continued commitment to deployment in France, in the UK, as well as our interest in sharing our technology and its advantages elsewhere across Europe."
Generic Design Assessments have previously been completed for the EDF/Areva UK EPR, the Westinghouse AP1000, the Hitachi-GE UK ABWR and the CGN/EDF/GNI UK HPR1000 designs. A GDA assessment is currently ongoing for Rolls-Royce SMR Limited's small modular reactor design, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy's BWRX-300 and Holtec International's SMR-300. In August, Westinghouse's AP300 was accepted for a GDA review.
Orano contracted to make MOX fuel for Japanese reactors
Tuesday, 3 December 2024
France's Orano has signed two mixed-oxide fuel manufacturing contracts with Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for a total of 64 MOX fuel assemblies for use in two Japanese nuclear power reactors.
A MOX fuel assembly (Image: MHI)
On 18 November, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) announced it had received an order from Kyushu Electric Power Company to supply 40 MOX fuel assemblies for unit 3 of its Genkai nuclear power plant. On 29 November, it received an order from Shikoku Electric Power Company to supply 24 MOX (mixed-oxide) fuel assemblies for unit 3 of its Ikata plant.
Under both these contracts, MHI will perform design of MOX fuel, and have components such as cladding tubes manufactured by Mitsubishi Nuclear Fuel Co - part of the MHI Group - supplied to Orano, who will fabricate the MOX fuel assemblies at its Melox plant in France.
Announcing its contract with MHI, Shikoku said it reached an agreement earlier this year with Tohoku Electric Power Company, Tokyo Electric Power Company, Chubu Electric Power Company, Hokuriku Electric Power Company and Japan Atomic Power Company to transfer ownership of the plutonium it held in the UK for an equal amount of plutonium held by another power company in France. It is this plutonium that will be processed into MOX fuel for use at Ikata 3.
Orano has now announced that it has signed two MOX fuel manufacturing contracts with MHI for the 64 MOX fuel assemblies for Genkai 3 and Ikata 3.
"These new contracts strengthen our longstanding relationship with MHI and utility customers in Japan," said Corinne Spilios, senior executive vice president of Orano's Recycling Business Unit. "We are very proud of our Japanese partners' renewed confidence in our expertise. This choice underlines the relevance of recycling for our customers as a responsible and sustainable solution for managing their used fuel."
On 29 November, MHI said it had signed "several contracts" with its Japanese partners to return all waste to Japan still stored at the Orano la Hague plant. In accordance with the terms of the contracts, the equivalent in mass and radioactivity of this waste contained in the used fuel elements must be returned to Japan, a solution authorised by the French administration on 27 November. It noted the entry into force of the signed contracts was subject to the lifting of suspensive conditions.
Between 1981 and 1999, contracts for the reprocessing of used fuel were signed with ten Japanese utilities. These contracts resulted in the recycling of fuel elements from Japanese nuclear reactors and in the conditioning of the residual waste. Under the contracts, 2793 metric tonnes of fuel were processed at Orano's La Hague plant. Almost 97% of the total radioactivity has already been returned to Japan.
MHI has previously supplied 57 MOX fuel assemblies to Japanese utilities.
To date, 44 reactors worldwide have generated electricity from MOX fuel since 1972.
Final cycle of REMIX nuclear fuel trial under way
Tuesday, 3 December 2024
The third 18-month phase of the pilot operation of innovative REMIX fuel has begun at Russia's Balakavo nuclear power plant's first unit. The aim is to be able to close the fuel cycle for VVER reactors.
(Image: Rosatom)
Instead of standard enriched natural uranium, the REMIX fuel assemblies contain pellets of a mixture of enriched uranium with recycled uranium and plutonium obtained from used nuclear fuel at VVER reactors.
Six fuel assemblies of the TVS-2M design, equipped with the pilot fuel elements, were loaded into Balakavo 1 in 2021. They are undergoing a standard operating cycle for VVER-1000 reactor fuel, of three 18 month campaigns. Following the first two of those three operating cycles, specialists from TVEL, Rosatom's fuel division, did video inspections of the fuel elements and structural elements of the TVS-2M with no obstacles identified to moving on to the final stage.
The third of the 18 month operating campaigns is now under way, with the REMIX (from Regenerated Mixture) fuel due to be unloaded in 2026 into the used fuel pool before being closely studied.
Alexander Ugryumov, Senior Vice President for Scientific and Technical Activities at TVEL, said: "After completing the pilot programme and post-reactor studies of REMIX fuel, Rosatom will have sufficient justification to offer the market a new product in the Balanced Fuel Cycle concept. At the next stage, we expect to move on to the phased introduction of such fuel at one of the high-capacity VVER power units."
The REMIX fuel cycle would see used fuel assemblies reprocessed so that uranium and plutonium can be recycled as an unseparated mixture. They are topped up with some freshly enriched uranium and made into new fuel, which goes back to be used again. This cycle can be repeated as many as five times, with waste fission products removed each time and vitrified in glass ready for permanent geological disposal. In theory, with three fuel loads in circulation, a reactor could run for 60 years using the same fuel, with LEU recharge and waste removal on each cycle.
Compared with uranium-plutonium fuel for fast reactors - such as MOX fuel - REMIX has a lower plutonium content of up to 5% and the fuel performs within the same parameters as fuel made only from fresh low-enriched uranium. This means a reactor would not need any modification to start using REMIX.
Rosatom said: "In the future, the introduction of uranium-plutonium fuel will allow not only fast neutron reactors to be involved in the closed nuclear fuel cycle, but also classical light-water thermal reactors, which form the basis of modern nuclear energy. This will allow the raw material base of nuclear energy to be expanded many times over by closing the nuclear fuel cycle, as well as reusing irradiated fuel instead of storing it."
Paks II gets key approval for pouring of first concrete
Monday, 2 December 2024
Hungary's Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Péter Szijjártó says first concrete is to be poured for the Paks II new nuclear plant early in 2025 after the country's National Atomic Energy Agency approved the preliminary safety report.
Preparatory soil works taking place in September (Image: Paks II)
Szijjártó said that the regulator's lifting of the retention point was one of the most important milestones for the construction project, saying "this is a serious document with a total volume of half a million pages, which meets the standards of the International Atomic Energy Agency". He also noted that the site officially gets the status of a nuclear facility under construction once first concrete is poured.
Excavation of soil to a depth of 23 metres is under way and 39,000 of the 75,000 piles that need to be drilled into the ground during soil consolidation are in place he said, adding: "There are already thousands of people working in the work area."
The first large-scale nuclear power plant equipment - the core catcher - was delivered to the site in August. Also known as a melt trap, the core catcher is a container in the form of a cone made of thermally resistant steel which in the unlikely event of an emergency will securely hold the melt of the core and not allow radioactive substances to leave the containment of the reactor.
In its official announcement of the decision, the National Atomic Energy Agency (Országos Atomenergia Hivatal, OAH) said it had "decided to lift the retention point specified in the construction permit for new nuclear power plant blocks. After that, it is possible to start significant activities (but requiring additional permits), such as the so-called first concrete pouring, during which the first concreting works of the new block's nuclear island are carried out".
"There are a number of technical and administrative conditions for the start of this activity, one of which was the lifting of the holding point specified in the establishment permit - in this procedure. The first concrete pouring has additional conditions prescribed in other permits, such as, for example, obtaining a permit for use of soil consolidation. During construction, the OAH constantly checks compliance with the legal requirements and the conditions laid down in the permits in the framework of ad hoc, announced or unannounced, as well as comprehensive inspections."
The Paks II project was launched in early 2014 by an intergovernmental agreement between Hungary and Russia for two VVER-1200 reactors to be supplied by Rosatom, with the contract supported by a Russian state loan to finance the majority of the project. The construction licence application was submitted in July 2020 to build Paks II alongside the existing Paks plant, 100 kilometres southwest of Budapest on the banks of the Danube River. The construction licence was issued in August 2022 and a construction timetable agreed last year which set out plans to connect the new units to the grid at the beginning of the 2030s.
The existing four units at Paks are VVER-440 reactors that started up between 1982 and 1987 and they produce about half of the country's electricity. Their design lifetime was for 30 years but that was extended in 2005 by 20 years to between 2032 and 2037. The Hungarian Parliament approved a proposal in 2022 to further extend their lifespan, which means preparations can begin on operating the plant into the 2050s.
B2Gold employees go on strike at Fekola mine in Mali
2024-12-02 - News Release
Mr. Clive Johnson reports
B2GOLD CONTINUING TO OPERATE AT FEKOLA MINE DESPITE TEMPORARY LABOUR ACTION; IMPLEMENTATION OF MOU WITH STATE OF MALI CONTINUES
B2Gold Corp. is closely monitoring a strike that began on Nov. 29, 2024, by certain employees at the company's Fekola mine in Mali. Under the notice provided to the company by the Fekola workers union, the strike commenced on Nov. 29, 2024, with a seven-day duration, ending on Dec. 5, 2024. The company is continuing to operate the Fekola mill at full throughput capacity during this period and still expects to be toward the lower end of its annual production guidance for the Fekola mine of between 420,000 and 450,000 ounces of gold in 2024.
The health, safety and security of B2Gold employees remain the company's foremost priorities. During the seven-day strike period, the company is continuing to operate critical infrastructure and the mill on a reduced roster, maintaining the expected gold production profile during the period. It is important to note that under Malian legislation, employees are authorized to provide minimum service, and participation in strikes is not compulsory for employees who elect to continue to work.
The company believes that the labour action is primarily in response to the action B2Gold has taken against a small number of Fekola employees that previously engaged in illegal activities detrimental to productivity at the Fekola mine, including "go slow" actions by the mining employees and an illegal sit in at the Fekola management office in August, 2024. During this period, B2Gold urged all Fekola employees to avoid involvement in these illegal activities and, in line with Malian law, Fekola's current union agreements and the B2Gold employee code of conduct, has commenced the disciplinary process for those employees who chose to engage in the illegal activities.
B2Gold remains ready and willing to participate in meetings with the Fekola workers union to reach a resolution, and will continue to adhere to legal procedures, respecting the rights of all its employees, inviting the union to engage in a constructive dialogue and providing the authorities with all requested information. Fekola has well-documented and recognized procedures for raising any form of grievance, as well as established engagement platforms in place with union representatives, to engage on issues concerning B2Gold's employees. B2Gold is committed to the highest standards for integrity and transparency and will continue to focus on safe and sustainable mining at Fekola, which brings great benefits to the work force, the surrounding communities and the state of Mali.
In addition, the company continues to make progress with the state of Mali on its respective deliverables and implementation of the necessary steps under the memorandum of agreement signed in September, 2024, including the issuance of the necessary permits to commence exploitation at Fekola Regional (located 25 kilometres north of the Fekola mine). Upon issuance of the exploitation permit for Fekola Regional, mining operations will begin with initial gold production expected to commence in early 2025, with the potential to generate approximately 80,000 to 100,000 ounces of additional gold production on an annualized basis from Fekola Regional sources through the trucking of open-pit ore to the Fekola mill. B2Gold continues to have a strong working relationship with the Malian government.
About B2Gold Corp.
B2Gold is a low-cost, international, senior gold producer headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. Founded in 2007, today, B2Gold has operating gold mines in Mali, Namibia and the Philippines, the Goose project under construction in Northern Canada, and numerous development and exploration projects in various countries, including Mali, Colombia and Finland. B2Gold forecasts total consolidated gold production of between 800,000 and 870,000 ounces in 2024.
Why voters should care about what ChatGPT tells them about history and politics
Peter Finn Lauren C. Bell Amy Tatum Caroline Leicht December 2nd, 2024
LSE
The past two years have seen artificial intelligence (AI) tools such as ChatGPT become widely used by those looking for information – including information to help them decide how to vote. But how accurate are AI tools’ responses when asked about political information? In new research, Peter Finn, Lauren C. Bell, Amy Tatum, and Caroline V. Leicht prompted ChatGPT to create short political and historical profiles of US states, and then asked human experts to rate them. They found that ChatGPT really can’t do it all: experts identified factual inaccuracies in over 40 percent of the profiles, and often provided vague and even false information and citations.
Key to most understandings of democracy is that voters (and citizens in general) should have sufficient evidence about the policies and actions of those who govern them to make an informed decision about their performance and who to vote for in future elections. Recent decades have seen many of the transparency mechanisms which can support this informed decision-making moving into the digital realm with examples, such as the National Security Archive based at The George Washington University, showing the value of focused oversight available to both academics and voters in general.
Increasingly, however, generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools are being embedded in our lives as the technology infrastructure, such as the initial online offerings of traditional media sources and social media sites, that dominated the first two decades of the twenty first century is superseded. What then, are the possibilities offered by such tools in terms of academic research and knowledge, and why does it matter to the average voter?
50 States or Bust! project
With the 50 States or Bust! project, we set out to explore exactly these types of questions in a systematic rather than an anecdotal fashion. Launched in Spring 2023, we began by developing a standard list of prompts for one of the most popular generative AI tools, ChatGPT, (essentially requests for ChatGPT to carry out a task) that could be tweaked for all US states and territories. These prompts were designed to provide insight into how ChatGPT would respond to inquiries about the history and politics of US states and territories, and which sources of information would be provided when requested by the prompts. Between 22 June and 27 June 2023, these prompts were entered into ChatGPT4 for all states and territories, which generated 56 profiles which varied in length from 123 to 705 words.
Following the creation of our profiles we began speaking to academic experts on state* level US politics about these profiles. We gave the experts a standard list of questions that asked them to judge the profiles that had been generated by ChatGPT in relation to the portrayal of history and politics and how well they drew from academic materials. We asked experts for qualitative responses, as well as asking them to rate the profiles on history, politics, and use of academic materials from 1-10 (with 10 being the highest). These interviews, as well as a standardised discussion of the politics of these states, can be found on our project podcast. As of writing, we have carried out 19 interviews with experts.
When it comes to information about the states, ChatGPT can’t do it all
In new research, we drew on 17 interviews with experts from a diverse range of states including Virginia, California, Utah, and Florida. Based on these interviews, we discovered the following:ChatGPT can’t do it all: Tools such as ChatGPT are clearly useful for some tasks. However, experts identified factual inaccuracies in over 40 percent of the profiles generated. Difficult to verify: Even though our prompts asked for sources in all instances, the information provided was often so vague as to be of little use. Hallucinated information: Our interviews demonstrated that ChatGPT tends to hallucinate false information, such as stating that Ohio has a Congressional delegation of 16 rather than 15, and incorrectly maintaining that Iowa’s current boundaries were set in 1851, when the state entered the union in 1846. Not only is it hard to judge the validity of some of the information or factual assertions ChatGPT provides, in some cases the information is simply factually wrong. Citations that do not exist: As well as hallucinations of factual information, ChatGPT also hallucinated citations, meaning that it said it has drawn from sources that do not actually exist.
To be fair to OpenAI, the company (part owned by Microsoft) that operates ChatGPT, it is open about potential flaws with ChatGPT, noting, for instance, that ‘[s]ometimes, ChatGPT sounds convincing, but it might give you incorrect or misleading information (often called a “hallucination” in the literature)’ highlighting that it ‘can even make up things like quotes or citations’ and advising users not to rely on it as the ‘only source for research’. Yet, with an increasing amount of content generated by ChatGPT, and similar tools such as Gemini from Google, the cumulative issues illustrated by our research raise important questions about the role of such tools in society, especially as there are very few restrictions on how material generated by tools such as ChatGPT and Gemini can be used. Below we chart three of these that relate to democracy and elections. Why voters should careFacts matter: As in academia, facts, and the evidence on which they are based, are integral to democracy. As generative artificial intelligence tools become embedded more into our work and private lives, there is a danger that voters come to see the output they generate as factually accurate. Yet, our research demonstrates that this is often not the case. Sources, and the existence of sources, matter: As important as facts and evidence themselves is where they are drawn from. Facts and evidence drawn from questionable sources is a problem as old as democracy itself. However, generative artificial intelligence tools add to this problem not just by engaging with questionable sources, but by completely inventing sources. Undermining the idea of truth: Differing interpretations of facts and evidence are key to democracy. Indeed, without such differing interpretations, societies would not develop and evolve. However, for such different interpretations to occur, there must be some agreement on what counts as evidence, and how one arrives at a particular fact. The potential for the almost unlimited generation of large amounts of content that is untethered from evidence has the potential to undermine faith in evidence or the idea of truthful narratives.
Given their increasing pervasiveness in our lives, it is important that voters are aware of the pitfalls, as well as the potential benefits, of tools such as ChatGPT. One avenue we are currently exploring is whether the material upon which ChapGPT is trained causes a bias in favour of nationalised topics in US politics: even when requests are given for information on state politics. Further forward, there is scope for testing our method on newer versions of ChatGPT (though these test profiles for California and Utah with ChatGPT4o appear to show many of the same issues as our initial dataset) or other tools such as Gemini. Moreover, it would be interesting to know what would occur if similar prompts were developed and tested for other countries such as Canada and the UK.* At present the authors have not managed to secure any interviews with territory level experts but would welcome such engagement. Please do get in touch if you are an expert on US territory level politics and are interested in being interviewed
Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Shortened URL for this post: https://wp.me/p3I2YF-ezi
About the author Peter Finn Dr Peter Finn is a multi-award-winning Senior Lecturer in Politics at Kingston University. His research is focused on conceptualising the ways that the US and the UK attempt to embed impunity for violations of international law into their national security operations. He is also interested in US politics more generally, with a particular focus on presidential power and elections. He has, among other places, been featured in The Guardian, The Conversation, Open Democracy and Critical Military Studies. Lauren C. Bell Lauren C. Bell is the James L. Miller Professor of Political Science and Associate Provost and Dean of Academic Affairs at Randolph-Macon College in Ashland, Virginia. She is the author of Filibustering in the US Senate (Cambria Press: 2011) and Warring Factions: Interest Groups, Money, and the New Politics of Senate Confirmation (The Ohio State University Press: 2002), and co-author of Slingshot: The Defeat of Eric Cantor (CQ Press 2015). She served as a United States Supreme Court Fellow during 2006-07, and was an American Political Science Association Congressional Fellow on the US Senate Committee on the Judiciary from November 1997 until August 1998. Amy Tatum Amy Tatum is a Lecturer in Communication and Media at Bournemouth University. She specialises in US politics and the role of women in politics. Caroline Leicht Dr Caroline Leicht is a Tutor in Media, Culture and Society at the University of Glasgow and a Visiting Fellow in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Southampton. Her research focuses on gender, media, and political communication, particularly on social media. She previously covered the 2020 US Presidential Election for German public broadcaster ZDF.
_91892.jpg)
_46346.jpg)
_71972.jpg)
_11531.jpg)
_20716.jpg)
