Congressional Report Warns of Climate Threat to US Insurance, Housing Markets

"The longer climate deniers keep up this charade, the more expensive things will get," said the JEC chair.


The remnants of buildings in Chimney Rock, North Carolina are captured on December 14, 2024, months after Hurricane Helene devastated the area.
(Photo: Peter Zay/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Jessica Corbett
Dec 16, 2024
COMMON DREAMS


After at least two dozen U.S. disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion during a year that is on track to be the hottest on record, a congressional committee on Monday released a report detailing how the fossil fuel-driven climate emergency poses a "significant threat" to the country's housing and insurance markets.

"Climate-exacerbated disasters, such as wildfires, hurricanes, floods, drought, and excessive heat, are increasing risk and causing damage to homes across the country," states the report from Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee (JEC). "Last year, roughly 70% of Americans reported that their community experienced an extreme weather event."

"In the 1980s, the United States experienced an average of one billion-dollar disaster (adjusted for inflation) every four months; now, these significant disasters occur approximately every three weeks," the document continues. "2023 was the worst year for home insurers since 2000, with losses reaching $15.2 billion—more than twice the losses reported in 2022."

"Rising premiums and this issue of uninsurability could seriously disrupt the housing market and stress state-operated insurance programs, public services, and disaster relief."


The insurance industry is already responding to that stress. The publication highlights that "insurers are pulling out of some states with substantial wildfire or hurricane risk—like California, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina—leaving some areas 'uninsurable,'" and "in many regions, even if the homeowner can get insurance, the policy covers less than the actual physical climate risks (for example, rising sea levels or more intense wildfires) that their home faces, leaving them 'underinsured.'"

JEC Democratic staff found that last year, "the average U.S. homeowners' insurance rate rose over 11%," and from 2011-21, it soared 44%. Researchers also documented state-by-state jumps for 2020-23. For increases, Florida was the highest ($1,272), followed by Louisiana ($986), the District of Columbia ($971), Colorado ($892), Massachusetts ($855), and Nebraska ($849).

The highest premiums for 2023 were in Florida ($3,547), Nebraska ($3,055), Oklahoma ($2,990), Massachusetts ($2,980), Colorado ($2,972), Hawaii ($2,958), D.C. ($2,867), Louisana ($2,793), Rhode Island ($2,792), and Mississippi ($2,787).

The report ties the rising premiums to "surging" prices for repairs, reinsurers also hiking rates, insurance litigation issues, and rate caps in some states pushing higher costs off to states that regulate the industry less. While JEC Democrats focused on the United States, as Common Dreamsreported last week, the climate threat to the insurance industry is a global problem.




"Rising premiums and this issue of uninsurability could seriously disrupt the housing market and stress state-operated insurance programs, public services, and disaster relief," the new report warns. "Given this rising threat, innovations in climate mitigation and adaptation, insurance options, and disaster relief are essential for protecting Americans and their finances."

The publication points out that "a previous JEC report on climate financial risks discussed other potential solutions like parametric insurance (a supplemental insurance plan that can pay homeowners faster), community-based catastrophe insurance that incentivizes community-level resilience efforts, and attempts to use risk-pooling, data, and AI to better price risk."

The new document also promotes the Wildfire Insurance Coverage Study Act, introduced by JEC Chair Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) "to address these data needs and study wildfire risk, insurance, and mitigation to help Americans make more informed decisions about the risks to their homes," and the Shelter Act, which "would create a new tax credit, allowing taxpayers to deduct 25% of disaster mitigation expenditures."

The report further recommends improvements to several Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) programs, including:Expanding the flagship pre-disaster mitigation grant funding available through FEMA's Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program beyond the nearly $3 billion it received in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) to meet growing demand (only 22 states received funding in FY23; although, applications were received from all 50).
Making it easier for states to apply for FEMA's Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, which gives funds to states hit by a disaster that they can use to protect against future damage. The Biden-Harris administration recently streamlined the program's application process.
Enacting a National Disaster Safety Board (similar to the National Transportation Safety Board), which would provide data-informed recommendations to help communities become more resilient to disasters.

Expanding the Community Wildfire Defense Program, created by the BIL.

The JEC publication comes as the country prepares for President-elect Donald Trump to take office next month after running a campaign backed by billionaires and fossil fuel executives and pledging to "drill, baby, drill," which would increase planet-heating pollution as scientists warn of the need for cutting emissions. Republicans will also have control of both chambers of Congress.

Heinrich on Monday called out the GOP for its climate record, saying that "Republicans have denied that climate change is real for over 40 years, and as a result, homeowners are seeing their insurance costs rise."

"Homeowners in New Mexico have seen their premiums increase by $400 over the last three years because of Republicans' refusal to act," he added, citing the 2020-2023 data. "The longer climate deniers keep up this charade, the more expensive things will get."

Biden Admin Confirms Dangers of LNG Exports But Won't Act to Block Them

"This study mirrors the Biden administration's entire four-year approach to advancing a clean energy future: weak and half-hearted," one advocate said.

A liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker operates near a Venture Global export facility in Louisiana.
(Photo: Getty Images)

Olivia Rosane
Dec 17, 2024
COMMON DREAMS

Approving more liquefied natural gas exports would raise domestic energy prices, increase the pollution burden placed on local communities, and exacerbate the climate crisis, the Biden administration concluded in a long-awaited report released Tuesday.

However, the Department of Energy (DOE) stopped short of denying any pending or future approvals, passing the buck to the administration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has vocally supported the LNG boom.

"This study mirrors the Biden administration's entire four-year approach to advancing a clean energy future: weak and half-hearted," Food & Water Watch policy director Jim Walsh said in a statement. "Liquid natural gas exports systematically poison the most vulnerable frontline communities, pollute our air and water, and drive up domestic energy prices. We cannot continue to be victimized by the profit-driven agenda of fossil fuel corporations. President Biden must listen to the warnings of his own government by banning further LNG exports and rejecting pending LNG permits before he leaves office."

"DOE's long-awaited environmental and economic analyses demonstrate what environmental justice and frontline communities have been saying for years—liquefied natural gas export facilities are not in the public interest."

U.S. LNG exports have tripled in the last five years, making the country the leading gas exporter in the world. At the same time, the latest climate research has shown that—due to methane leaks across the LNG life cycle—the so-called "bridge fuel" is in fact worse for the climate than coal.

Following pressure from climate and environmental justice advocates, the Biden administration in January announced a pause on approving LNG exports to non-Free Trade Agreement countries while the DOE updated the studies it uses to determine whether or not gas exports are in the public interest, as Congress has authorized it to do under the Natural Gas Act.

Those updated studies were released Tuesday, along with a statement from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. Climate, consumer, and frontline advocates welcomed the findings themselves, which they said were largely consistent with their warnings and experience.

"DOE's long-awaited environmental and economic analyses demonstrate what environmental justice and frontline communities have been saying for years—liquefied natural gas export facilities are not in the public interest," Leslie Fields, the chief federal officer at WE ACT for Environmental Justice, said in a statement. "Not only do these projects compound public health and safety harms to communities, especially in the Gulf and for communities of color, but they also exacerbate the climate crisis and raise energy prices here at home."

Jamie Henn, the director of Fossil Free Media, said on social media that Granholm's statement was "even stronger than I expected."

In it, Granholm emphasized five key findings from the updated studies:LNG exports are booming, with the quantities already approved being sufficient to meet global demand for decades in 4 out of 5 scenarios.
Increasing exports would boost the profits of export facility owners and generate jobs in the industry, but would raise gas prices for domestic industry and consumers overall. Within the U.S., "unfettered exports" would raise prices by more than 30% and add "well over" $100 to the average yearly household energy bill by 2050.
LNG export facilities are concentrated in communities already exposed to fossil fuel industry pollution, with methane, volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and other contaminates raising mortality rates.
Increased LNG exports would contribute to the climate crisis: They are more likely to supplant renewables than coal and add to global emissions in every scenario the DOE examined.
Regulators should consider where LNG exports will be shipped. Demand in Europe is falling, while China is currently the leading importer and projected to remain so through 2050.

"Today's study makes clear that all pending export applications must be denied as being inconsistent with the public interest, and should result in a reassessment of existing exports to determine compatibility with the public interest," Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen's Energy Program, said in a statement. "Using LNG exports to provide energy abundance for China at the expense of higher utility bills for working Americans is not in the public interest."

Granholm stated clearly that "the effect of increased energy prices for domestic consumers combined with the negative impacts to local communities and the climate will continue to grow as exports increase."

Yet she also said the Biden administration would not act on the findings of the updated studies due to the timing of their release: The report's publication now triggers a 60-day comment period, and the inauguration is only a little more than a month away.

"Given that the comment period for the study will continue into the next administration—and that there are a limited number of applications that are concurrently ready for the DOE 'public interest' review—decisions about the future of LNG export levels will necessarily be made by future administrations," she said. "Our hope is that we can now assess the future of natural gas exports based on the facts and ensure authorizations are reviewed in a manner that truly advances the public interest of all the American people."

While the purpose of the DOE's updated studies had never been to deny or approve exports—rather to inform those decisions—advocates have been pushing the Biden administration to act on its findings. In particular, frontline Gulf groups are concerned about Calcasieu Pass 2 and Commonwealth LNG, two pending export facilities that are currently subject to supplemental environmental impact statements by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission due to concerns about their local impacts.

"We were hoping that this study would be released and with this study would come the denial of permits for these projects," frontline leader Roishetta Ozane of the Vessel Project of Louisiana said in a press briefing.

"It'll be hard for the Trump administration to completely ignore the finding that exports drive up costs for consumers. That's political dynamite."

Several groups responded to the study with renewed calls for permit denials.

"This study confirms that Donald Trump's plans to supercharge LNG exports will come at the expense of consumers and the climate," said Friends of the Earth senior energy campaigner Raena Garcia. "We cannot afford to prop up an industry that continues to threaten our people and the planet for profit. Over the next few weeks, it is not too late for the Biden administration to curb the deadly LNG export boom."

Walsh of Food & Water Watch said: "Secretary Granholm's admission that continuing LNG exports will drive up costs and harm vulnerable communities is a sad reflection on what we have been saying for the last decade. It is time for this administration to start matching its rhetoric with action, and reject new LNG exports while it still can."

But Henn told Common Dreams that this might be a losing battle.

"The administration has indicated it wants to follow the regular process and not jump ahead and deny permits before they leave office, only to have Trump reapprove them," Henn said. "We disagree and think denials would send a strong political signal and potentially strengthen legal challenges. It's unlikely we'll sway them with so little time left, but we're going to try."

Still, campaigners emphasized that the DOE's findings will strengthen the case of any community or group opposing LNG exports going forward.

"This report will serve as a tool for us in fighting against these projects," Ozane said.

This remains the case despite the Trump administration's pro-fossil fuel stance and history of running roughshod over rules and regulations.

"Trump will of course try and ignore the study, but it gives us new political, legal, and diplomatic arguments," Henn told Common Dreams. "Politically, it'll be hard for the Trump administration to completely ignore the finding that exports drive up costs for consumers. That's political dynamite. Legally, if Trump just ignores the findings of this report and rushes approval, that opens the door for challenges."

Natural Resources Defense Council senior attorney Gillian Giannetti pointed out in a press briefing that "because these studies are in the public record, the failure to properly consider them and their relevance would be unlawful under the Administrative Procedure Act."

Slocum of Public Citizen said that groups like his have legal intervention status and can ask a court to review any Trump decision.

"Any court is going to want to know—what does the administrative record say?" he noted. "And this report greatly strengthens the case that requested LNG exports are not consistent with the public interest. So a court can toss out a Trump admin approval."

"These studies show clearly that LNG exports are in gas executives' best interest and nobody else's."

Henn added that the findings could slow the LNG buildout both diplomatically and economically.

"Diplomatically, the climate data in this report makes it less likely that our allies, all of whom have signed the Paris agreement, will be as interested in importing dirty U.S. gas," he told Common Dreams.

"Finally," he concluded, "this report will cause tremors on Wall Street. This report and Secretary Granholm's strongly worded letter indicate that future Democratic administrations won't likely support new export facilities. Since these are long-term investment decisions, that uncertainty will slow down financing for new projects."

The report also undermines Trump's economic argument that more fossil fuel production is better for everyone, revealing it instead for another giveaway to the wealthy.

"Despite claims from the incoming Trump administration that it wants to lower prices, the truth is they are putting billionaire fossil fuel donors ahead of everyday Americans," Greenpeace USA deputy climate program director John Noël said in a statement. "The record is crystal clear: Increasing LNG exports will drive up costs for domestic businesses and consumers. Full stop. Any further investment in LNG will only exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis, while enriching gas industry CEOs who don't have to experience the fallout of living near an export terminal."

Lauren Parker, an attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity's Climate Law Institute, agreed, saying, "These studies show clearly that LNG exports are in gas executives' best interest and nobody else's."

Parker concluded, "If Trump wants to drive up dangerous gas exports, he's going to have to answer for causing more deadly storms, condemning the Rice's whale to extinction, and socking consumers with higher costs."

ICJ Set to Decide Whether Fueling Climate Change Violates International Law


The case could have critical consequences for the survival of future generations.

By Marjorie Cohn ,

Truthout

December 16, 2024

A man paddles himself, two other people and a dog through floodwaters on a raft made out of storm debris on February 6, 2024, in Havana, Cuba.

YAMIL LAGE / AFP via Getty Images

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has just completed hearings on the climate crisis in a case that could have critical consequences for the survival of future generations. From December 2-13, more than 100 states and organizations argued before the ICJ in landmark litigation that began five years ago when Pacific Islander law students initiated a grassroots movement that persuaded the UN General Assembly to request an advisory opinion from the ICJ.

“In The Hague, most of which lies below sea level, this has been a momentous two weeks,” environmental attorney Richard Harvey, who works for Greenpeace International and watched the historic proceedings, told Truthout. “The Cold War divided the world into East and West but climate change divides it into North and South: corporate petrostates against the Small Island Developing States and the rest.”

“Never before have the U.S., Russia, China, U.K., Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and OPEC [the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] lined up so explicitly against those who suffer the most from their greed,” Harvey said. “Corporate petrostates shamelessly asserted that peoples’ rights to self-determination, to life and to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment are, in essence, trumped by their right to fossil fuel profits.”

On March 29, 2023, the General Assembly adopted Resolution 77/276 that recognized “climate change is an unprecedented challenge of civilizational proportions and that the well-being of present and future generations of humankind depends on our immediate and urgent response to it.” The resolution directed the ICJ to render an advisory opinion on:The obligations of States under international law to protect the climate system and other parts of the environment from anthropogenic [caused by humans] emissions of greenhouse gases, now and in the future.
The legal consequences for States that fail to do this and cause significant harm to present and future generations and other States (particularly small island developing States affected by adverse effects of climate change).

The campaign in the General Assembly was spearheaded by Vanuatu, a constellation of 83 small islands in the South Pacific and one of the states most vulnerable to climate change. The measure that was introduced by Vanuatu and co-sponsored by over 130 states took aim at the primary emitters of fossil fuels, of which the United States is the leading culprit.




“Today, we find ourselves on the frontlines of a crisis we did not create ⎯ a crisis that threatens our very existence and that of so many other peoples who have come in unprecedented numbers to be heard by this Court,” Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s special envoy for climate change and environment, told the 15 judges. “The outcome of these proceedings will reverberate across generations, determining the fate of nations like mine and the future of our planet.”

The Climate Crisis Is “Existential” for Many Developing Countries

Many states, including Tuvalu, characterized the climate crisis as “existential.” Despite producing less than 0.01 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, Tuvalu is on a trajectory to be the first country completely lost to rising sea levels due to climate change. The Solomon Islands have already lost five islands and others face severe erosion. Several states cited extreme weather events, many quite recent, that have had disastrous consequences for their people.


“The cost of fossil fuel subsidies from States reached an all-time high of US$7 trillion in 2022,” more than 23 times the amount that developing countries strived to secure for climate finance at the recent COP29.

Elizabeth Exposto, chief of staff to the prime minister of Timor-Leste, which is acutely vulnerable to climate change, said, “The climate crisis that we face today is the result of the historical and ongoing actions of industrialised nations, which have reaped the benefits of rapid economic growth, powered by colonial exploitation and carbon-intensive industries and practices.” She also noted, “These nations, representing only a fraction of the global population, are overwhelmingly responsible for the climate crisis, and yet, the impacts of climate change do not respect borders.”

But Margaret Taylor, legal adviser to the U.S. Department of State, dismissed the idea that the worst offenders were most responsible for taking actions to remedy the harm they are causing to the developing states. She asserted that, “States’ current obligations in respect of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions do not vary based on differentiation between categories of States, such as those characterized as ‘developed’ and ‘developing.’”

Like other major emitting states, Russia contended that the 1.5 degrees centigrade temperature limit in the Paris agreement is not legally binding, international responsibility is only triggered at the moment the climate treaties came into force for each state, causation by a single state is impossible to prove, and the primary emitters are not responsible for harm that future generations will suffer.

Even though Palestine is responsible for less than 0.01 percent of global emissions, it suffers severe climate impacts that are intensified by Israel’s illegal occupation. It has led to “the violation of the Palestinian people’s inalienable right to control its territory, to have sovereignty over its resources and to be in command of its climate policies,” Ambassador Ammar Hijazi, permanent representative of the State of Palestine to International Organizations in the Netherlands, told the court.

Palestine’s representatives raised the significant linkage between occupation, militarism and climate justice. “Climate scientists have determined that the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip was responsible for emission of between 420,000 and 650,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in just the first 120 days, which is the period for which there is published data,” Kate Mackintosh argued for Palestine. “This is equivalent to the total annual emissions of 26 of the lowest-emitting States.”

“Although the occupying Power has a legal obligation to protect the environment and to conserve the natural resources of the occupied territory for the benefit of the protected population, this obligation is often violated, as the Court has already concluded in relation to Israel’s occupation of Palestine,” Mackintosh added. She was referring to the ICJ’s advisory opinion issued in July which concluded that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory is illegal.

Representatives from the Dominican Republic said that damages from climate change violate the fundamental right to survival — a right recognized by the ICJ in its advisory opinion on the Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons.
The Risks of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Have Been Known Since at Least the 1960s

Regenvanu from Vanuatu emphasized that “the unprecedented risks created by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have been known since at least the 1960s,” citing an address by U.S. President Lyndon Johnson in 1965: “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through radioactive materials and a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”

Referring to the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Regenvanu noted, “For many peoples, including in Vanuatu, the prolonged and systematic failure of the COP process has cost them their well-being, their cultures and even their lives. There is an urgent need for a collective response to climate change grounded not in political convenience but in international law.”

Jorge Viñuales from the Melanesian Spearhead Group stated that emissions of greenhouse gases have increased more than 50 percent since 1990. He cited a report by the International Monetary Fund that “the cost of fossil fuel subsidies from States reached an all-time high of US$7 trillion in 2022,” more than 23 times the amount that developing countries strived to secure for climate finance at the recent COP29.

Fossil fuels account for 80 percent of global primary energy. Nearly 80 percent of historical greenhouse gases have come from the Group of 20 (G20), while developing countries contributed only 4 percent.

In its directive to the ICJ for an advisory opinion, the General Assembly resolution referenced several relevant sources of international law, including the UN Charter; the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights; the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights; UNFCCC; the Paris Climate Agreement; the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea; the duty of due diligence; the Universal Declaration of Human Rights; the principle of prevention of significant harm to the environment; and the duty to protect and preserve the marine environment.

The Leading Greenhouse Gas Emitters Tried to Narrow Climate Change Law

Nevertheless, the leading greenhouse gas-emitting states argued that their international legal obligations did not go beyond those set forth in the UNFCCC and Paris agreement, an international treaty on climate change adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in 2015 and entered into force in 2016.

But the overwhelming majority of states told the court that international law governing climate change also includes customary international law and human rights law.

“As the majority of the submissions have highlighted, for islands like Samoa, climate change is more than an environmental issue,” Peseta Noumea Simi, chief executive officer in Samoa’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, said. “It is a health, food security, economic, social, cultural, human rights and security concern. As large ocean States, it fundamentally affects our ability to draw sustenance from the pristine oceans and seas that surround us.”

The Solomon Islands called for international legal protection for refugees displaced by climate change under international refugee law.

Some, like Ecuador, maintained that states which have significantly harmed the climate system, including harm caused by private contractors under its jurisdiction, must also be held accountable.

The Union of Comoros argued that breaches of the legal obligations owed to the international community as a whole (erga omnes) require reparations, including cessation of illegal acts, compensation for damage and loss, and financial support. Many of the states agreed that reparations must be paid, including restitution, compensation and satisfaction (for moral damages such as mental and emotional suffering). Some, including the African Union, mentioned debt cancellation (or at least debt relief) and structural reparation. Vietnam, which continues to suffer the effects of the U.S. military’s spraying of Agent Orange during the Vietnam War, suggested restorative measures for the national environment.

A Favorable Advisory Opinion From the ICJ Would Carry Great Moral Weight

During his first term, President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris agreement. President Joe Biden then rejoined the treaty in 2021. Now, Trump is preparing once again to leave the Paris agreement and has promised to increase fossil-fuel production.

Although an advisory opinion from the ICJ is not legally binding, it carries great moral weight. It could help climate activists hold polluting states accountable by providing legal support for climate litigation against their governments. Politicians could cite it to support the imposition of sanctions against states that fail to comply with their legal obligations. And diplomats could use it as a minimum standard in the next global climate change negotiations.

“The ICJ’s opinion will be published in 2025, just as the court celebrates its 80th birthday,” Harvey told Truthout. “I sincerely hope our colleagues threatened by rising sea levels, unbreathable air and deadly temperature increases will find its opinion a cause for celebration.”

On the last day of the hearings, Vishal Prasad, director of Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change, presented the ICJ with the “People’s Petition: A Collective Climate Justice Call for the ICJ,” which quoted a young woman from the Micronesian island of Kiribati: “The ocean, once a nurturing mother, has become a vengeful giant, swallowing the land it once cradled. It no longer only gives life — it now takes it, inch by inch. Where it once offered sustenance, it now brings destruction, its rising tides a cold and unrelenting force that pulls homes, cultures, and futures into its depths.”

Prasad invoked the memory of his ancestors, who were guided across the Pacific islands by the stars, telling the judges: “Just as the wayfinders of the Pacific held the wisdom to guide us through the vast ocean to safe harbour, you hold the knowledge and the responsibility to guide the international community to ensure the protection of our collective future. And you can do this simply by applying international law to the conduct responsible for climate change.”

Indeed, Vanuatu’s Regenvanu told the ICJ, “Let us not allow future generations to look back and wonder why the cause of their doom was condoned.”


This article is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), and you are free to share and republish under the terms of the license.

Marjorie Cohn is professor emerita at Thomas Jefferson School of Law, dean of the People’s Academy of International Law and past president of the National Lawyers Guild. She sits on the national advisory boards of Veterans For Peace and Assange Defense, and is the U.S. representative to the continental advisory council of the Association of American Jurists. Her books include Drones and Targeted Killing: Legal, Moral and Geopolitical Issues.

How ramshackle housing made Mayotte vulnerable to cyclone assault


By AFP

December 17, 2024

Mayotte's shantytowns never stood a chance against the cyclone - Copyright AFP MIGUEL MEDINA

Simon AVON

The dismal quality of housing across Mayotte has compounded the devastating impact of Cyclone Chido on the poverty-stricken French Indian Ocean territory where hundreds, or maybe thousands, are feared dead.

Before the storm hit, around a third of the island’s population was living in iron-sheeted huts that never stood a chance against the powerful cyclone.

By the time it was gone, all of Mayotte’s shantytowns were flattened, burying lives — and livelihoods — beneath them.

“We fear there will be a considerable number of deaths,” a French government official told AFP. “Several hundred, or maybe several thousand.”

Mayotte is the poorest part of France, of which it is an integral part.

Recent official data on the state of housing in Mayotte are hard to come by but 2017 data published by the national statistics institute said 40 percent of the island’s homes are built with metal sheets and around a third have no access to running water.

– Flimsy –

“They’re made of wood, corrugated iron, and situated on hills, on beaten earth,” said Florent Vallee, who runs the French Red Cross branch’s emergency operations.

“You can easily imagine the wind barrelling into them, and the rain creating mudslides.”

Over the decades, French authorities have tried to improve housing conditions for the island’s population which numbers 320,000 according to official data, but is in fact much greater because of an influx of undocumented migrants who do not show up in government statistics.

As recently as the late 1970s, modern building materials were virtually unknown in Mayotte, said Megane Aussedat, a sociologist and expert on informal housing on the island.

Despite government programmes to replace precarious shelters with solid housing, the number of available homes is still inadequate compared to the size of the population, and the migration influx.

They are also out of reach for many people in Mayotte where the median monthly income is 260 euros ($273), compared with around 2,600 euros pretax on the French mainland.

Subsidised housing projects have also been slow to materialise, said Aussedat.

However, since 2018 the authorities have been allowed to raze substandard housing provided they immediately offered inhabitants new homes.

Such clearing operations, involving massive police contingents, are sometimes thought to have the secondary objective of flushing out undocumented migrants, but Aussedat observed that telling illegals from legals can be a challenge.

“There is almost no family in Mayotte,” she said, “where everybody’s status is either documented or undocumented”.



– Comoros influx –



Mayotte’s immigration issue is almost entirely due to an influx from the Comoros, an archipelago whose closest shores are just 70 kilometres (44 miles) from Mayotte, and that declared independence in the 1970s while Mayotte opted to remain French.

As poor as Mayotte is by French standards, the Comoros are even poorer, tempting many there into a perilous journey across the water in search of a better life in Mayotte.

They often end up living in makeshift areas consisting mostly of so-called “bangas” — small houses made of cloth and thatch.

When Chido hit, many refused to leave their homes, taking their chances with the cyclone rather than face the danger of their homes being looted or of being picked up by the authorities.

Vallee said emergency services had rescued “entire families, and also a lot of children who were left alone”.

Sanitary conditions, already precarious, have worsened since, mostly because of patchy access to clean water that could prompt another cholera outbreak like the one in the spring of 2024 that killed seven people, said Jean-Francois Coty, president of the Medecins du Monde NGO.

– ‘Brakes on healthcare access’ –

Undocumented migrants’ “fear of moving is putting the brakes on healthcare access”, he said.

A French government scheme allowing undocumented people access to state healthcare is not available in Mayotte.

Coty said he hoped that French officials will pause forced deportations so immigrants can seek help without fear of expulsion.

“This is a time for humanitarian aid, not for a crackdown,” he said.

Thousands Feared Dead in Impoverished French Territory of Mayotte After Cyclone Chido

"You feel like you are in the aftermath of a nuclear war," said one resident. "I saw an entire neighborhood disappear."


A photo taken on December 15, 2024 shows residents sitting among piles of debris of metal sheets and wood after homes were destroyed by the cyclone Chido that hit France's Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte.
(Photo: Kwezi/AFP via Getty Images)

Julia Conley
Dec 16, 2024
COMMON DREAMS

Undocumented migrants living in informal settlements in the French territory of Mayotte were among those whose lives and livelihoods were most devastated by Cyclone Chido, a tropical cyclone that slammed into the impoverished group of islands in the Indian Ocean over the weekend.

Authorities reported a death toll of at least 20 on Monday, but the territory's prefect, François-Xavier Bieuville, told a local news station that the widespread devastation indicated there were likely "some several hundred dead."

"Maybe we'll get close to a thousand," said Bieuville. "Even thousands... given the violence of this event."

Mayotte, which includes two densely populated main islands, Grande-Terre and Petite-Terre, as well as smaller islands with few residents, is home to about 300,000 people.

The territory is one of the European Union's poorest, with three-quarters of residents living below the poverty line, but roughly 100,000 people have come to Mayotte from the nearby African island nations of Madagascar and Comoros in recent decades, seeking better economic conditions.

Many of those people live in informal neighborhoods and shacks across the islands that were hardest hit by Chido, with aerial footage showing collections of houses "reduced to rubble," according toCNN.

"What we are experiencing is a tragedy, you feel like you are in the aftermath of a nuclear war," Mohamed Ishmael, a resident of the capital city, Mamoudzou, told Reuters. "I saw an entire neighborhood disappear."

Bruno Garcia, owner of a hotel in Mamoudzou, echoed Ishmael's comments, telling French CNN affiliate BFMTV: "It's as if an atomic bomb fell on Mayotte."


"The situation is catastrophic, apocalyptic," said Garcia. "We lost everything. The entire hotel is completely destroyed."

Residents of the migrant settlements in recent years have faced crackdowns from French police who have been tasked with rounding up people for deportation and dismantling shacks.


The aggressive response to migration reportedly led some families to stay in their homes rather than evacuate, for fear of being apprehended by police.

Now, some of those families' homes have been razed entirely or stripped of their roofs and "engulfed by mud and sheet metal," according to Estelle Youssouffa, who represents Mayotte in France's National Assembly.


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People in Mayotte's most vulnerable neighborhoods are now without food or safe drinking water as hundreds of rescuers from France and the nearby French territory of Reunion struggle to reach victims amid widespread power outages.


"It's the hunger that worries me most. There are people who have had nothing to eat or drink" since Saturday, French Sen. Salama Ramia, who represents Mayotte, told the BBC.

The Washington Postreported that Cyclone Chido became increasingly powerful and intense—falling just short of becoming a Category 5 hurricane with winds over 155 miles per hour—because of unusually warm water in the Indian Ocean. The ocean temperature ranged from 81-86°F along Chido's path. Tropical cyclones typically form when ocean temperatures rise above 80°F.

"The intensity of tropical cyclones in the Southwest Indian Ocean has been increasing, [and] this is consistent with what scientists expect in a changing climate—warmer oceans fuel more powerful storms," Liz Stephens, a professor of climate risks and resilience at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, told the Post.

People living on islands like Mayotte are especially vulnerable to climate disasters both because there's little shielding them from powerful storms and because their economic conditions leave them with few options to flee to safety as a cyclone approaches.

"Even though the path of Cyclone Chido was well forecast several days ahead, communities on small islands like Mayotte don't have the option to evacuate," Stephens said. "There's nowhere to go."

Record-breaking Philippines typhoon season was ‘supercharged’ by climate change

Ayesha Tandon

12.12.2024 | CARBON BRIEF

This year’s record-breaking typhoon season in the Philippines – which saw six consecutive storm systems hit the country in under a month – was “supercharged” by climate change, according to a rapid attribution study.

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to extreme weather. Between late October and mid November 2024, the country was hit by a barrage of storms, starting with severe Tropical Storm Trami on 22 October, and ending with Tropical Storm Man-Yi which made landfall on 16 November.

“Typhoon” is the term used to describe a tropical cyclone – a tropical storm with wind speeds of at least 33 metres per second – that forms in the north-west Pacific. (If a tropical cyclone forms in the Atlantic Ocean or north-eastern Pacific Ocean, it is called a hurricane.)

Even for a disaster-prone country, such rapid “clustering” of typhoons was “unprecedented”, one Filipino expert told a press briefing.

By the end of November 200,000 individuals were displaced across six regions – many of whom had been forced from their homes multiple times in just one month.

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) service finds that climate change has exacerbated the conditions that enabled these powerful storms to form in the Philippine Sea, such as warm seas and high humidity.

Of the six major storms that hit the Philippines between the end of October and middle of November this year, three made landfall as “major typhoons” with wind speeds above 50 metres per second (112 miles per hour). This is 25% more likely to happen in today’s climate than it would have been in a pre-industrial world without human-caused warming, the study finds. 

The typhoons “highlight the challenges of adapting to back-to-back extreme weather events”, the study says. The authors add that “repeated storms have created a constant state of insecurity, worsening the region’s vulnerability and exposure”.

‘Unprecedented’ typhoon season

On 22 October 2024, severe Tropical Storm Trami made landfall on the Filipino island of Luzon – the country’s largest and populous island. The storm rapidly dumped one month’s worth of rain over parts of the island, with floods sweeping the country.

However, the residents were given little time to recover. Just days after Storm Trami subsided, the Philippines was hit by Super Typhoon Kong-Rey. More than nine million people were affected by the two storms and almost 300,000 displaced.

As the weeks progressed, the Philippines was hit by Typhoon Yinxing, Typhoon Toraji and Typhoon Usagi. Finally, Tropical Storm Man-Yi made landfall on 16 November, marking the end of the record-breaking month. 

Afrhill Rances works at the Asia-Pacific regional office of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and is an author on the WWA study. She told a press briefing that, even for a disaster-prone country, the rapid “clustering” of typhoons in 2024 was “unprecedented”.

Dr Claire Barnes – a research associate at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute and an author on the study – added that in the Philippines, “in November we would expect to see only three named storms in the entire basin at any point, with only one of those reaching super typhoon status”. A super typhoon is defined as any typhoon with winds above 58 metres per second (130 miles per hour).

The back-to-back storms formed so rapidly that November saw four named storms forming in the Pacific basin simultaneously. Japan’s meteorological agency said this was the first time in seven years – and the first November in recorded history – where four named storms have formed in the Pacific at the same time.

Typhoon intensity

Typhoons are complex events, which can be intensified by climate change in many different ways, including their rainfall intensity, storm surge height and wind speed.

The authors of this study focus on a metric called “potential intensity”, which looks at temperature, humidity levels and sea level pressure over the Philippine Sea where the typhoons formed.

Ben Clarke, a study author from the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, told the press briefing that potential intensity indicates the “theoretical maximum intensity for a tropical cyclone”. He explains that the metric is “based on the conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean which are crucial for cyclone development”.

The map below shows the average potential intensity of the Philippine Sea between September and November 2024, where red indicates high potential intensity and blue indicates low potential intensity.

The dotted lines show the tracks of different storms. The black square indicates the study area. Potential intensity is calculated as the potential wind speed of the typhoon in metres per second.

Average potential intensity in the Philippine Sea over September-November 2024, using ERA5 data. Source: WWA (2024).

To put this year’s record-breaking typhoon season into its historical context, the authors analysed a time series of average potential intensity in the Philippine Sea, using an observational reanalysis dataset stretching back to the year 1940.

The study says:

“Our best estimate is that the observed potential intensity has become about 7 times more likely and the maximum intensity of a potential typhoon has increased by about 4 metres per second.”

The authors also carried out attribution analysis to assess whether the increase in potential intensity can be linked to human-caused climate change.

Attribution is a fast-growing field of climate science that aims to identify the “fingerprint” of climate change on extreme-weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts. To conduct attribution studies, scientists use models to compare the world as it is today to a “counterfactual” world without human-caused climate change.

The authors find that the potential intensity in the Philippine Sea in 2024 was 1.7 times higher than it would have been in a world without climate change. They add that the maximum potential intensity of a typhoon has increased by about 2 metres per second due to climate change.

(These findings are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, the methods used in the analysis have been published in previous attribution studies.)

Landfall

Climate change is exacerbating the conditions needed for tropical cyclones to form. However, tropical cyclones are still fairly infrequent and there is a “short period of reliable observations” of tropical cyclones that make landfall, according to the study.

This can make it challenging for scientists to assess the impact of climate change on the frequency of tropical cyclones using traditional methods.

To address this problem, researchers from Imperial College London developed a “synthetic tropical cyclone dataset” called IRIS earlier this year. This dataset uses observations from 42 years of observed tropical cyclones to create a “10,000-year synthetic dataset of wind speed”.

The database includes millions of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks. Each track maps the wind speed of the tropical cyclone from its formation to its landfall, to describe how its power changes throughout its lifetime.

The team has already used this method to attribute the extreme winds of Typhoon Geami and Hurricane Beryl, which hit China and Jamaica, respectively, earlier this year. 

Of the six major storms that affected the Philippines in the month-long period, three made landfall as “major typhoons”, according to the WWA. The authors define a major typhoon as a category three or above, indicating sustained wind speeds above 50 metres per second.

Using the IRIS dataset, the authors assessed how likely it is for three typhoons to make landfall in the Philippines in a single year under different warming levels. They find that in today’s climate – which has already warmed by 1.3C as a result of climate change – the Philippines could expect three major typhoons to make landfall in a single month roughly once every 15 years. This is 25% more frequent than in a world without climate change.

They add that if the planet warms to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures, “we expect at least three major typhoons hitting in a single year every 12 years”.

‘Supermarket of disasters’

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to extreme weather events and natural disasters, and is already facing deadly impacts from climate change.

The country’s location in the Pacific ocean makes it highly vulnerable to typhoons, volcanoes and earthquakes. The WWA study adds that the country “is experiencing sea level rise more than three times faster than the global average”. And the Philippines is facing deadly heatwaves, which have been made more intense as a result of climate change. 

Rances told the press briefing:

“In the Red Cross we call the Philippines a ‘supermarket of disasters’, because you name it – we have it.”

The Philippines is struck by more typhoons every year than almost any other country in the world. It has “gradually shifted its approach from reactive to proactive risk management with a significant focus on preparedness and resilience building”, according to the World Bank.

For example, warning and pre-emptive evacuation orders were sent out ahead of many of the typhoons this year. Schools, ports and airports were closed in many regions. And disaster response teams were mobilised. 

Families seeking shelter at the Bagong Silangan Evacuation Center, Philippines, due to the expected flooding in low-lying areas caused by Super Typhoon Man-yi, local name Pepito, on 17 November 2024. Credit: Imago / Alamy Stock Photo.

However, the unrelenting barrage of typhoons this year overwhelmed many of the country’s disaster preparedness systems, exhausting supplies and overstretching emergency responders. It also left communities with little time between storms to recover and prepare.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates that, at the end of November 2024, more than 200,000 individuals were displaced across six regions, hundreds of fatalities and injuries had been reported and more than 250,000 homes had been damaged. The damage to livestock, agriculture and infrastructure was estimated to be around $47m at the end of November.

The Filipino government spent more than $17m on food and other aid for the hundreds of thousands of storm victims. It has also sought help from neighbouring countries, the US and the United Nations. 

The consecutive typhoons “highlight the challenges of adapting to back-to-back extreme weather events”, the study says. It adds:

“With 13 million people impacted and some areas hit at least three times, repeated storms have created a constant state of insecurity, worsening the region’s vulnerability and exposure.”

The authors warn that “major investment is needed to help the Philippines adapt to extreme weather”.

Buildings ‘pancaked’ in Vanuatu as 7.3 magnitude quake hits off capital Port Vila

Witnesses have appealed for help, describing chaotic scenes, widespread damage and people trapped in the rubble.

Stefan Armbruster & Harry Pearl
2024.12.17
Brisbane and Sydney

Rescue operations underway on a commercial building flattened by the earthquake in Port Vila’s CBD, pictured on Dec. 17, 2024.
 [Michael Thompson/Vanuatu Zipline Adventures


A strong 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Vanuatu on Tuesday, U.S. geologists said, severely damaging a number of buildings in the capital, crushing cars and briefly triggering a tsunami warning.

Witnesses described a “violent shake” and widespread damage to Port Vila, located about 1,900 kilometers (1,180 miles) northeast of the Australian city of Brisbane.

The Pacific island nation is ranked as one of the world’s most at-risk countries from natural disasters and extreme weather events, including cyclones and volcanic eruptions.

Michael Thompson, an adventure tour operator based in the capital, said the quake was “bigger than anything” he’d felt in his 20 years living in Vanuatu.

“I was caught in the office with my colleague,” he told BenarNews. “When we came outside, it was just chaos everywhere. There have been a couple of buildings that have pancaked.

“You can hear noises and kind of muffled screams inside.”

The building housing the U.S., British, French and New Zealand diplomatic missions in the capital Port Vila partially collapsed during the earthquake, pictured on Dec. 17, 2024. [Michael Thompson/Vanuatu Zipline Adventures]

Video footage taken by Thompson outside the U.S. embassy showed the bottom floor of the building in downtown Port Vila had partially collapsed. Its windows are buckled and the foundations have been turned to rubble.

“We stood there yelling out to see if there was anyone inside the building,” Thompson said. “It looks really dangerous.”

The building also hosts the British, French and New Zealand missions.

Just down the main road from the embassy building, search and rescue teams were trying to force their way into a commercial building through the tin roof, Thompson said, but at the pace they were going it would be a “24 hour operation.”

“We need help. We need medical evacuation and we need qualified rescue personnel. That's the message,” he said.

A number of buildings in Port Vila’s CBD have sustained serious damage, pictured on Dec. 17, 2024. [Michael Thompson/Vanuatu Zipline Adventures]

The quake was recorded at a depth of 43km and centered 30km west of the capital Port-Vila, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

The U.S. Tsunami Warning System cancelled an initial tsunami warning for coastal communities in Vanuatu within 300km of the epicenter.

The quake hit the island nation not long after midday, coming into peak tourist season, when the streets of Port Vila were packed with people shopping and eating in restaurants, Thompson said.

He had seen at least one dead body among the rubble.

“The police are out trying to keep people back,” he said. “But it’s a pretty big situation here.”

In other videos posted online people can be seen running through the streets of the capital past shop fronts that had fallen onto cars. Elsewhere, a cliff behind the container port in Port Vila appears to have collapsed.

Dan McGarry, a Port Vila-based journalist, described the earthquake on social platform X as a “violent, high frequency vertical shake” that lasted about 30 seconds, adding the power was out around the city.

Vanuatu, home to about 300,000 on its 13 main islands and many smaller ones, is prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions because it straddles the seismically active Pacific “Ring of Fire.”

Vanuatu’s government declared a six-month national emergency early last year after it was hit by back-to-back tropical cyclones Judy and Kevin and a 6.5 magnitude earthquake within several days.

Bodies seen in Vanuatu capital after major quake'

SYDNEY

Rescue workers are seen at the site of a collapsed building after a powerful earthquake struck Port Vila, the capital city of Vanuatu, on Dec. 17, 2024

A powerful earthquake hit the Pacific island of Vanuatu on Tuesday, smashing buildings in the capital Port Vila including one housing the U.S. and other embassies, with a witness telling AFP of bodies seen in the city.

The 7.3-magnitude quake struck at a depth of 57 kilometres (35 miles), some 30 kilometres off the coast of Efate, Vanuatu's main island, at 12:47 pm (0147 GMT), according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The ground floor of a building housing the U.S., French and other embassies had been crushed under higher floors, resident Michael Thompson told AFP by satellite phone after posting images of the destruction on social media.

"That no longer exists. It is just completely flat. The top three floors are still holding but they have dropped," Thompson said.

"If there was anyone in there at the time, then they're gone."

Thompson said the ground floor housed the U.S. embassy. This could not be immediately confirmed.

The United States has closed the embassy until further notice, citing "considerable damage" to the mission, the U.S. embassy in Papua New Guinea said in a message on social media.

"Our thoughts are with everyone affected by this earthquake," the embassy said.

The New Zealand High Commission, housed in the same building, suffered "significant damage", a statement from Foreign Minister Winston Peters' office said.

"New Zealand is deeply concerned about the significant earthquake in Vanuatu, and the damage it has caused."

Roof collapsed on cars

Thompson, who runs a zipline adventure business in Vanuatu, said: "There's people in the buildings in town. There were bodies there when we walked past."

A landslide on one road had covered a bus, he said, "so there's obviously some deaths there".

The quake also collapsed at least two bridges, and most mobile networks were cut off, Thompson said.

"They're just cracking on with a rescue operation. The support we need from overseas is medical evacuation and skilled rescue, kind of people that can operate in earthquakes," he said.

Video footage posted by Thompson and verified by AFP showed uniformed rescuers and emergency vehicles working on a building where an external roof had collapsed onto a number of parked cars and trucks.

The streets of the city were strewn with broken glass and other debris from damaged buildings, the footage showed.

Nibhay Nand, a Sydney-based pharmacist with businesses across the South Pacific, said he had spoken to staff in Port Vila who said most of the store there had been "destroyed" and that other buildings nearby had "collapsed".

"We are waiting for everyone to get online to know how devastating and traumatic this will be," Nand told AFP.

A tsunami warning was issued after the quake, with waves of up to one metre (three feet) forecast for some areas of Vanuatu, but it was soon lifted by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

Earthquakes are common in Vanuatu, a low-lying archipelago of 320,000 people that straddles the seismic Ring of Fire, an arc of intense tectonic activity that stretches through Southeast Asia and across the Pacific basin.

Vanuatu is ranked as one of the countries most susceptible to natural disasters such as earthquakes, storm damage, flooding and tsunamis, according to the annual World Risk Report.