Global study to evaluate whether dengue outbreaks can be anticipated earlier

Southern Cross University

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E-Dengue platform in use in real time.

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Credit: TBC

Thousands of dengue forecasting models have been published, but few have been tested in real public-health settings. Now, researchers from the US and Australia are launching a field evaluation in Vietnam to see whether a new early-warning platform can support earlier interventions against a disease that WHO says puts nearly half the world’s population at risk. 

Southern Cross University (Aus) is leading the second phase of this multi-year collaboration, working alongside the University of Queensland (Aus), Yale University (USA) and Vietnam’s National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology. This phase has focused on translating predictive modelling into E-Dengue* – an open-source, user-friendly software system tailored for district-level decision-making. 

WATCH the E-Dengue video explainer. 

Southern Cross University researcher Dr Vinh Bui said the team’s priority has been creating a tool that frontline staff can use in real-world conditions. 

“There are thousands of published studies on dengue prediction models, but very few become tools that are practical for local teams,” said Dr Bui. 

“Our goal in this stage has been to build a tool that is reliable, actionable, fast and intuitive – something that supports, rather than complicates, routine public health work.” 

With the predictive models developed and the E-Dengue platform built, the project is now entering its most critical stage: integrating the tool into Vietnam’s routine dengue surveillance and beginning a large cluster randomised controlled trial to test whether earlier warnings lead to earlier action and fewer outbreaks.  

“We’ve built a tool with strong potential, but the critical test is ahead of us,” said Dr Bui  

“The next three years will tell us whether early warnings lead to earlier, better-targeted interventions – and whether this improves health outcomes.” 

Although interest in disease early-warning systems is growing, very few have been adopted into routine practice anywhere in the world. The research team says understanding why is just as important as building the technology. 

This work is guided by the project teams' recently published “Useful, Usable, Used (3U) Framework” in Nature Communications, which examines how digital prediction tools can move from innovation to real-world adoption. 

Yale University researcher Dr Robert Dubrow said the next stage of the collaboration will provide crucial evidence on whether early-warning systems can shift dengue control from a reactive to a proactive approach. 

“Our team at Yale has led the development of the predictive model underpinning the platform,” Dr Dubrow said. 

“We now look forward to working with our Vietnamese and Australian partners to rigorously evaluate whether early warnings change outcomes in practice.” 

Interest in the approach is emerging from neighbouring countries, including Thailand, Laos and Cambodia, where dengue risk is rising under climate and population pressures. 

Full deployment of the tool across selected districts in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region will begin in early 2026. During 2026–2028, E-Dengue will be used in real public health decision-making while the research team conducts the randomised controlled trial and associated studies. 

“This is a challenging and complex process,” said University of Queensland Associate Professor Dung Phung. 

“Our long-term aim is to develop a tool that Vietnam’s Ministry of Health sees value in maintaining beyond the life of the project.” 

*Please note the link to the E-Dengue site shows a simulation of the platform.  

 

Aedes mosquito. This species can transmit diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, and Zika.

Credit

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

MEDIA INVITATION TO VIRTUAL BRIEFING 

Media are invited to attend a virtual briefing on 18 December 2025 at 10.30am AEDT (Sydney, Australia), featuring the researchers leading the project. A recording of the briefing will be available following the event, and additional assets – including video and images – can be requested through the Southern Cross University media team at scumedia@scu.edu.au.  

Register to attend the virtual briefing at Webinar Registration - Zoom 

The E-Dengue platform is part of a Wellcome Trust –funded initiative focused on climate-informed disease preparedness. 

 

Rare earth elements – Of peptides and the origins of life

Two publications in Angewandte Chemie (“Applied Chemistry”)

Heinrich-Heine University Duesseldorf

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Dr Sophie M. Gutenthaler-Tietze and Dr Jonathan Gutenthaler-Tietze are the lead authors of the two studies, which have now been published in the scientific journal Angewandte Chemie (“Applied Chemistry”). (Photos: HHU/Christoph Kawan; HHU/Sophie M. Gutenthaler-Tietze)

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Credit: HHU/Christoph Kawan; HHU/Sophie M. Gutenthaler-Tietze

Elements from the group of rare earth metals are of great importance today, also in technical applications. The Bioinorganic Chemistry group at Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf (HHU) is conducting diverse research into these elements. The group has now published two studies in the scientific journal Angewandte Chemie (“Applied Chemistry”). One examines peptides, which can bind these elements, while the other highlights the potential role of the elements in the origins of life.

The group of rare earth elements (REEs) comprises a total of 17 elements, all of which possess similar chemical properties. In addition to the two lightest elements, scandium and yttrium, the group also includes lanthanum, cerium and neodymium, as well as the radioactive promethium. The name of this group of elements is misleading as they are not rare on earth; rather, their deposits are distributed very unevenly worldwide, which makes them important in global political terms. REEs are needed for many high-tech applications – from smartphones and magnets (for example for wind turbines), to catalysts and optical components.

Among other topics, the Bioinorganic Chemistry group of Professor Dr Lena Daumann, is examining how organisms can absorb rare earth elements. The aim is to potentially use these processes technically to extract the elements or recycle them from old devices.

In the study “Reversing Lanmodulin’s Metal-Binding Sequence in Short Peptides Surprisingly Increases the Lanthanide Affinity”, Daumann’s team – in collaboration with the Helmholtz Centre Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) – is focusing on short-chain proteins (peptides) inspired by the REE-binding protein lanmodulin found in the bacterium Methylorubrum extorquens AM1. The new peptides synthesised in Düsseldorf display a strong binding affinity for this group of elements.

Dr Sophie M. Gutenthaler-Tietze, lead author of the study and postdoc at Daumann’s Institute: “The development of these short peptides actually originates from a synthesis error. We accidentally reversed the sequence of amino acids in the peptide compared with those in the natural protein lanmodulin. Interestingly, the peptides created in this way display an affinity for rare earth elements, which is one order of magnitude higher than their natural counterparts.”

Together with the colleagues from Dresden-Rossendorf, the researchers identified structural motifs, which are responsible for the high level of affinity. Daumann: “On this basis, we further optimised the affinity and were able to push it into the low nanomolar range. The examined peptides form an ideal basis for developing sustainable, bio-inspired recycling methods for rare earth elements. By reclaiming resources that have already been used, we are not only reducing the burden on the environment, but also increasing our raw material independence.”

The second study published in Angewandte Chemie, “Influence of Rare Earth Elements on Prebiotic Reaction Networks Resembling the Biologically Relevant Krebs Cycle”, focuses on an entirely different aspect of rare earth elements, namely their role in the emergence of the earliest life on earth. More than 3.5 billion years ago on the abiotic earth, small organic building blocks began to react with each other under the right conditions. They formed increasingly complex structures, the precursors of biological macromolecules. It is highly likely that metals such as iron played a key role in this process as catalysts. To date, however, there has hardly been any consideration of the possibility that rare earth elements might also have been important in this process.

Lead author Dr Jonathan Gutenthaler-Tietze: “For the first time, we systematically examined whether these elements facilitate reactions in a prebiotic scenario. And rare earth elements can in fact moderate key chemical reactions. Starting with glyoxylate and pyruvate, two simple organic acids seen as potential starting materials for early life, we identified seven of eleven intermediates of the biological ‘Krebs cycle’ in the presence of the rare earth elements.” The Krebs cycle is a central component of the energy metabolism of all living creatures. The reactions formed a complex network with numerous connections.

Daumann: “The ionic radii of rare earth elements are key to their reactivity. We also noted that even very small concentrations are already sufficient to have a significant influence on the reaction network. The results thus bring a previously underestimated group of elements into the focus of prebiotic research.”

Original publication

Sophie M. Gutenthaler-Tietze, Jerome Kretzschmar, Satoru Tsushima, Robin Steudtner, Björn Drobot, Lena J. Daumann; Reversing Lanmodulin’s Metal-Binding Sequence in Short Peptides Surprisingly Increases the Lanthanide Affinity; Angewandte Chemie International Edition, 64 (46), e202510453 (2025)

DOI: 10.1002/anie.202510453

Jonathan Gutenthaler-Tietze, Carolina G. Heßler, Lena J. Daumann; Influence of Rare Earth Elements on Prebiotic Reaction Networks Resembling the Biologically Relevant Krebs Cycle; Angewandte Chemie International Edition; e16853 (2025)

DOI: 10.1002/anie.202516853

 

The group led by Professor Dr Lena Daumann has conducted research into two very different aspects of rare earth elements. In this illustration, the element symbols form the frame. The left-hand section shows the newly developed peptides that can bind REE very effectively. The right-hand section symbolises the question of what role REE may have played in the origin of life. (Fig.: HHU/Jonathan Gutenthaler-Tietze)

Credit

HHU/Jonathan Gutenthaler-Tietze

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Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1002/anie.202516853 

Article Title

Influence of Rare Earth Elements on Prebiotic Reaction Networks Resembling the Biologically Relevant Krebs Cycle

 

Bubbles enhance the ocean’s CO2 uptake more strongly than previously assumed

New study provides first direct measurement evidence for a long-overlooked effect in air–sea gas exchange

Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)

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In strong winds and rough seas, gas exchange between the air and the sea is asymmetrical: air bubbles are literally pushed into the water by breaking waves. Consequently, more gases, such as carbon dioxide, are absorbed than released.

Photo: Ming-Xi Yang, Plymouth Marine Laboratory

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Credit: Dr Ming-Xi Yang, Plymouth Marine Laboratory

The exchange of carbon dioxide between the ocean and the atmosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle. Acting as a vast buffer, the ocean absorbs a substantial share of human-made CO2 emissions, thereby slowing the pace of climate change.

How effective this buffering is, depends on how efficiently CO2 is transferred between air and water. Until now, most calculations assumed that this exchange is symmetric – meaning that CO2 enters and leaves the ocean at the same rate.

“With our study, we fundamentally challenge this assumption, known as the symmetric flux formulation,” says lead author Dr Yuanxu Dong, a Humboldt Fellow at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and Heidelberg University. Because this assumption is widely used in carbon cycle and climate models, many previous estimates may be systematically biased.

When waves swallow air

In regions with strong winds and heavy wave action, breaking waves entrain air bubbles into the water. These bubbles act like tiny transport capsules: under increased pressure below the surface, CO2 dissolves particularly efficiently into the ocean. Put simply, the gas is not just exchanged, but actively “pushed” into the water.

This bubble-mediated gas transfer favours CO2 uptake much more strongly than outgassing – an asymmetric effect that had previously been hypothesised but never directly demonstrated using field data.

First direct evidence from observations

In the study, an international research team led by Plymouth Marine Laboratory and GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, in collaboration with the Heriot-Watt University, analysed a total of 4,082 hours of high-quality measurements of air–sea CO2 flux measurements. The data were collected during 17 research cruises across a wide range of ocean regions.

Using a newly developed two-dimensional analysis method, the researchers were able for the first time to demonstrate directly from observational data that air–sea gas exchange is indeed asymmetric. Based on this approach, the team recalculated global air–sea CO2 fluxes for the period from 1991 to 2020. The result: on average, the global ocean absorbed around 0.3 to 0.4 petagrams more carbon per year – about 15 per cent more than previous estimates.

Particularly strong effect in the Southern Ocean

The effect varies regionally. The additional CO2 uptake is especially pronounced in regions with frequent strong winds and breaking waves, such as the Southern Ocean – an area where some of the most severe impacts of climate change are already being observed.

Seasonal differences also play a role: during winter, when storms are more frequent, the asymmetric effect becomes even stronger. Overall, the revised calculations significantly increase the fraction of the ocean surface that acts as a net sink for CO2.

Implications for climate models and the global carbon budget

The findings suggest that the ocean’s role as a CO2 sink has so far been underestimated. At the same time, the gap between observation-based estimates and the results of many global climate models becomes even more apparent.

“We therefore strongly advocate that future CO2 flux assessments should adopt the asymmetric formulation,” says Yuanxu Dong. Co-author Dr Ming-Xi Yang, chemical oceanographer at the Plymouth Marine Laboratory, adds: “Accounting for this asymmetry means that ocean CO2 flux estimates derived from observations diverge even further from those produced by global models. This points to shortcomings in the models – and these models need to be as realistic as possible in order to make reliable future CO2 and climate projections.”

Open questions and future research needs

Despite the robustness of the results, the researchers emphasise that uncertainties remain. In particular, measurements of CO2 outgassing under extreme wind and wave conditions are still scarce, as they are technically challenging to obtain. Additional data are needed to further constrain the asymmetric effect and to better integrate it into global models.

What is already clear, however, is that the ocean plays an even more important role in the climate system than previously assumed – and that seemingly small processes, such as air bubbles in breaking waves, can have global consequences.

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Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-025-66652-5 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Asymmetric bubble-mediated gas transfer enhances global ocean CO2 uptake