Sunday, January 18, 2026

Is Russia imperialist? A response to Renfrey Clarke


Russian troops

In his article, “The sources of the Ukraine conflict: A reply to Chris Slee,” Renfrey Clarke disputes my contention that Russia is imperialist. Clarke says:

As analysed by Lenin early in the last century, imperialism is a characteristic of the richest and most developed capitalist countries.

However, he acknowledges that Vladimir Lenin regarded Russia as imperialist, despite the fact that the Russian empire of his day remained a “primitive and dependent state”. Clarke recognises that Russia was “a ranking military power, able to keep large non-Russian populations in subjection and to throw millions of soldiers into its wars.”

Clarke also notes that:

In his writings, Lenin never fully untangled this conundrum. But he left us a definite pointer to his views. In articles in 1915 and 1916 he described the Russian imperialism of his time as “feudal” and as “crude, medieval, economically backward”. Clearly, he did not include it in the same category with the modern imperialism of the advanced Western countries.

Instead, the Russian empire was a relic of an earlier, pre-industrial imperialism, based not on finance capital and advanced productive methods, but on peasant rents, handicraft production and merchants’ profits. For Lenin, it may be said, the Russian empire despite its military power belonged in a historical category with such empires as that of the Ottomans.

Military power and foreign interventions as indicators of imperialism

Certainly tsarist Russia was backward and semi-feudal. But some of Lenin’s writings indicate that he regarded military strength and interventions in foreign countries as indicators of imperialism, regardless of the economic system. For example, Lenin wrote:

The last third of the nineteenth century saw the transition to the new, imperialist era. Finance capital not of one, but of several, though very few, Great Powers enjoys a monopoly. (In Japan and Russia the monopoly of military power, vast territories, or special facilities for robbing minority nationalities, China, etc, partly supplements, partly takes the place of, the monopoly of modern, up-to-date finance capital)

Note the reference to Japan, which at that time was capitalist, though with feudal remnants, and where the development of finance capital was still limited. Despite this, Lenin highlighted its military power and interventions abroad (Lenin mentions China, but Japan had also invaded Korea). Clearly, Lenin regarded military power and foreign interventions as important factors in judging if a country is imperialist.

I am not aware of any writing by Lenin where he gives a full explanation of his views on this question. Lenin’s pamphlet Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism is often quoted as the definitive summary of his views. But Lenin himself noted its limitations. In his preface to the April 1917 edition, he said:

This pamphlet was written with an eye to the tsarist censorship. Hence, I was not only forced to confine myself strictly to an exclusively theoretical, particularly economic, analysis of facts, but to formulate the few necessary observations on politics with extreme caution, by hints, in an allegorical language — in that accursed Aesopian language — to which tsarism compelled all revolutionaries to have recourse whenever they took up their pens to write a “legal” work.

Thus, Imperialism only deals with the economic aspects of imperialism. But Lenin’s other writings make clear that imperialism is not just an economic phenomenon. Political and military aspects are also important.

Clarke says:

Russia’s “feudal, medieval” imperialism perished in 1917. To characterise the country today using the tsarist regime as a historical reference is far-fetched.

Russia today is not semi-feudal, as it was in 1917. But its military strength makes it a great power. Lenin wrote: “The epoch of imperialism has turned all the 'great' powers into the oppressors of a number of nations…” This applies to Russia today.

Modern Russia

Clarke notes that:

The return of capitalism to Russia from 1991 saw the Russian Federation emerge as a typical “upper tier” country of the Global South; part of the “semi-periphery” of world capitalism along with countries such as Brazil, Mexico, or Türkiye.

Lenin never used the terms “Global South” or “semi-periphery”. Global South is an imprecise concept, while semi-periphery comes from World Systems Theory, which divides countries into the “core” and “periphery”, with semi-periphery as an intermediate category. This theory implies that the world capitalist system has a single “core” (or centre), ignoring the fact of inter-imperialist rivalry. 

In my view, Turkey, which intervenes militarily in Syria, Iraq and several African countries, is imperialist, even if on a much smaller scale than the United States.

Clarke says:

While Russia in 1991 inherited an industrial economy from the Soviet Union, the level of its technology in all but a few sectors was decidedly backward.

One sector, however, in which Russia was NOT backward was its military industry. This sector is crucial for Russia’s ability to intervene beyond its borders.

Clarke writes:

Entry to the “gated community” of the world’s rich states is effectively locked and barred; the list of genuinely wealthy countries, which apart from mini-states number about 20 in all, has barely altered since Lenin’s time.

Yet imperialism is not static. Japan, once a formerly poor country, is today an imperialist power.

Clarke says:

Imperialist states, if we read Lenin correctly, are marked by a surfeit of underused capital, seeking employment at the rates of profit its owners think they deserve. But the data cited above show that, compared to undoubted imperialist countries, Russia is strikingly capital-poor. Russian industry and infrastructure, the military sector aside, suffer from a severe lack of investment.

Meanwhile, the country is home to legendary natural resources that, in normal times, command high prices on world markets. To the extent that Russian entrepreneurs have capital to invest, they have the opportunity to draw very agreeable rates of profit at home, without the obloquy and vast expense of invading foreign countries.

This assumes that capitalists and their governments always act in a rational manner, avoiding unnecessary risks. In fact, they often act in a reckless and potentially self-destructive manner. Capitalists always want more wealth, and capitalist governments often seek to expand the territory under their control, even if it is unwise to do so. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an example.

Clarke writes:

The charge that Russia launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine from an imperialist drive to territorial expansion is therefore absurd. If we discard (as we should) the “crazed dictator” narratives current in the West, that leaves us compelled to accept that the reason for Moscow’s “special military operation” is exactly what the Russians say it is: a defensive response to determined, persistent Western menaces.

Andriy Movchan has convincingly refuted the idea that Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was defensive. Movchan points out that Putin showed little concern when Finland and Sweden joined NATO, even though Finland is very close to St Petersburg.

He argues that Russian chauvinist ideology played a key role. I agree that ideology is important, but would add that this ideology is not simply the result of Putin being a “crazed dictator”. It has a purpose: to unite Russia’s population on a nationalist basis under Putin’s leadership, and thereby suppressing dissent.

Clarke writes:

The World Beyond War site puts the number of US military bases on foreign territory in 2025 at 877, in 95 countries. According to the same source, Russia has 29, the great majority of them inherited from and located in countries of the former Soviet Union. Several more Russian bases are in Syria. Moves by Russia to secure a naval station on Sudan’s Red Sea coast appear to have stalled.

This pattern does not suggest the pursuit by Russia of world hegemony, but rather, a focus on its own security. All of Russia’s military bases, actual or mooted, outside of the former Soviet Union are in the Middle East — a strategically sensitive area of Russia’s “near abroad”.

Many imperialist countries have few, if any, foreign military bases: for example, Japan, Germany and Sweden. Russia has more foreign bases than these countries.

Clarke explains the presence of Russian bases in the Middle East by saying it is “a strategically sensitive area of Russia’s ‘near abroad’.” But the US could say the same about Latin America.

Should the left just accept Russia’s peace terms?

Clarke says:

In any war, after victory has ceased to be a realistic prospect, there comes a point where the implications of continuing to fight approach national extermination. The killing in the Ukraine conflict has been monstrous. Now it must stop, on whatever terms might plausibly be enduring. For the international left that means, in practice, calling for acceptance of the peace terms, outlined above, put forward by the Russian side.

There is no guarantee that such an agreement would be “enduring”. Putin's ideology, which says that Ukraine is not a real nation but a part of Russia that was artificially separated from the rest by the Bolsheviks, implies that he may renew the war when he judges conditions for victory are favourable.

Peace is essential, but there need to be guarantees that Russia will not renew the war. Perhaps an international peace-keeping force sponsored by the United Nations should be considered. This could be combined with referendums in the disputed areas to ascertain which state the people want to join.

Putin would probably reject such a proposal, unless subject to strong pressure from within Russia. The best guarantee of peace would be a strong anti-war movement in Russia, combined with democratic rights enabling such a movement to organise and express its views.

INTERVIEW

Former Archbishop of Canterbury: Putin is a heretic – he has no holy mission in Ukraine


For years, the Russian Orthodox Church has given its blessing to Moscow’s brutal invasion and attempted to frame it in religious terms. The former archbishop tells Maira Butt that Vladimir Putin’s violence directly contradicts the message preached by Christ


Putin calls Ukraine invasion his ‘holy mission’ in bizarre Christmas address


Sunday 18 January 2026 

The Independent



The former Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, has accused Vladimir Putin of “heresy” after the Russian President claimed his invasion of Ukraine was a “holy mission”.

During a speech to mark Orthodox Christmas earlier this month, Putin called his soldiers “warriors” who were acting “as if at the Lord’s behest” and “defending the fatherland”.

Mr Williams, who served as the Archbishop of Canterbury from 2002 to 2012, condemned the use of religion to justify the invasion as “disturbing” and said that Putin’s revanchism directly contradicts the message preached by Jesus Christ.

“I’d certainly say we’re talking about heresy,” he told The Independent. “We’re talking about something which undermines a really fundamental aspect of religious belief, of Christian belief, which assumes that we have to defend God by violence.”

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, more than 1,600 theologians and clerics from the Eastern Orthodox Church issued the Volos Declaration, which condemned the “Russian World” ideology as a heretical belief and practice. The belief system grants Russia a special place in the cosmic order and claims the country has a divine right to build the “Holy Rus”: a land chosen by God for the Russian people.


Vladimir Putin lights a candle as he attends a Christmas service at a church in Moscow (AFP via Getty)

“The idea that death in battle for your country equates to Christian martyrdom seems to be the most bizarre and unjustifiable interpretation you could take,” Mr Williams said.

“There is something really, really disturbing about the systematic, comprehensive rebranding of Christianity as Russian national ideology.”

He referred to statements made by Christ that his kingdom is “not of this world” and “if it were of this world, my servants would fight”.

Mr Williams pointed to the fact that Putin often resists calls to scale back fighting and violence over Christian religious periods, including Christmas and Easter.


The former Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams (PA)

He also pointed to the arrest and detention of two young Orthodox seminary members, Denis Popovich and Nikita Ivankovich. They are facing up to 20 years in prison on what critics say are trumped-up charges, according to Public Orthodoxy, a publication that is part of the Orthodox Christian Studies Centre.


Mr Popovich was arrested as he was walking to Sretensky Monastery in Moscow for “petty hooliganism” and “allegedly shouting and using obscene language”. Public Orthodoxy wrote in a newsletter on the anniversary of his arrest: “Anyone who knew this devout young man understood immediately that such behaviour was inconceivable for him”. Six weeks later, the allegations had transformed into terrorism charges.

Asked what he would say to Putin, the theologian said: “The word Christianity contains the name Christ. Which Christ do you think you’re serving? The one of the Gospels or some nationalist goblin?”

In 2024, the Ukrainian parliament outlawed the Moscow-based Russian Orthodox Church because of its strong support for Russia's invasion.

The Russian Orthodox Church has been a powerful ally of Putin, giving its blessing to the war and supporting his campaign to uphold what he calls traditional values in Russian society, in contrast to perceived Western decadence.


Russia’s leader has referred to his invasion of Ukraine as a ‘holy mission’ (Ukrainian Armed Forces)

Mr Williams said that Russia’s use of faith as a justification for war should be an alarm bell for the West. Governments are in denial about the extent to which religion is being “weaponised” to drive human conflict across the world, and religious leaders should step up their condemnation of violence, he suggested.

“In the West, we might think that religion is draining away but it certainly isn’t in other parts of the world,” he said. “To imagine that faith can only be defended by violence is a bit of an insult to faith really. If you're saying faith can only be strong if I beat the living daylights out of unbelievers, you're not saying much about the strength of faith, are you?”



Orthodox priests told The Independent last week that Putin is more akin to the “Antichrist” than a messiah, and that he holds “demonic” beliefs antithetical to the faith.

“Seen from a Christian perspective, you don’t use unholy means to pursue a holy mission,” the former Bishop of Leeds, Nick Baines, told The Independent. “When that unholy means involves slaughtering people, invading their country, and telling lies.”






Trump’s Occupation of Minnesota and the Resistance

Sunday 18 January 2026, by Dan La Botz



At the moment, Minneapolis is the frontline of the resistance.

President Donald Trump is at war with Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, whom he hates as a political rival, and at war with liberal Minneapolis, the state’s largest city. Trump has now sent 3,000 agents of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) into Minneapolis, 1,000 more than there were before ICE murdered activist Renée Nicole Good. There are now more ICE agents in Minneapolis than there are police in the metropolitan area. The majority of the inhabitants see this as an occupation that is bringing fear and more violence into their city.

ICE agents, masked, wearing bulletproof vests, and carrying firearms and chemical sprays, appear at schools, hospitals, churches, and businesses, and without arrest warrants, grab brown and black people, both immigrants and U.S. citizens, put them into cars and take them away. Some are later released; some are shipped to far away cities to make it difficult for friends and families to find and help them. Because of ICE patrols, Minneapolis and other nearby districts have closed their schools for the next few weeks, offering virtual learning instead.

President Trump and Kristi Noem, head of the Department of Homeland Security, claim that ICE agents enjoy “absolute immunity.” But a federal judge, Kate M. Menendez issued a temporary injunction forbidding ice agents from retaliating against people “engaging in peaceful and unobstructive protest activity,” and from using “crowd dispersal tools” in retaliation for protected speech and from stopping and detaining people in cars unless they were forcibly blocking ICE. Judges in California, Illinois and Washington, D.C. have issued similar rulings in suits brought by immigrant rights organizations.

Both ordinary people and the city’s and state’s politicians, like Governor Tim Walz and mayor Jacob Frey consider what is happening to be an illegal, violent occupation. And there is resistance. Wherever ICE agents appear, members of activist networks blow their whistles to alert their neighbors and many come into the street to shout at the ICE agents to get out. Others have used their cars to block the streets and impede ICE. Some activists have thrown snowballs at ice agents, others have slashed ICE agents’ cars’ tires, and some have fired fireworks at the agents. The confrontations often become chaotic and highly emotional as local residents filled with fear and anger take courage to challenge the armed masked men who have come into their communities.

While on the one hand the militant resistance is admirable, on the other there is fear that it may provide Trump with the excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act which allows the president to send federal troops into any city or state. The Act can be invoked “to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights.” The people of Minneapolis would argue that it is Trump who is creating the violence and depriving people of their rights.

Trump’s Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into the actions of Governor Walz and Mayor Frey, accusing them of interfering with ICE. Frey told ICE to “get the fuck out of Minneapolis.”

Trump hates Walz because he was the Democratic vice-presidential candidate on the ticket that opposed him and vice-president J.D. Vance in 2024. And he hates Minneapolis where a large majority vote Democratic. And he hates brown immigrants because he’s a racist.

The people of Minneapolis are standing up to Trump and around the country people are hoping they continue their impressive bottom-up peaceful protests and that they—and we—will win.

17 January 2026


Attached documentstrump-s-occupation-of-minnesota-and-the-resistance_a9370.pdf (PDF - 1021.5 KiB)
Extraction PDF [->article9370]


Dan La Botz  was a founding member of Teamsters for a Democratic Union (TDU). He is the author of Rank-and-File Rebellion: Teamsters for a Democratic Union (1991). He is also a co-editor of New Politics and editor of Mexican Labor News and Analysis.


Ice: The new face of the United States’ deportation machine

There is a long history of displacement and deportations in the US, and Ice is the latest expression of this racist regime, writes Camilla Royle

SOCIALST WORKER
UK
Sunday 18 January 2026



People at Federal Plaza in New York City protesting against Ice and mass deportation in the second presidency of Donald Trump, September 2025 (Picture: SWinxy)

Donald Trump has waged war on Minneapolis as people resist mass deportations and protest the state murder of Renee Good.

His use of federal agents to try to sweep people off the streets of United States’ cities is an escalation of state violence against migrants.

But, as Adam Goodman’s book The Deportation Machine shows, driving out immigrants has long been part of the way the US state manages the capitalist system.

There is a popular idea that the US is a “nation of migrants”.

But there are contradictions.

While US capitalism needs migrant labour, it has always relied on anti-migrant racism to divide ­working class people.

And the first Europeans who moved to the US were not simply migrants, but settler colonialists who wiped out Indigenous people.

It is this tradition that Republican and Democrat administrations stand in when they seek to forcibly remove people from the country and shut the borders.

In the 1880s and 1890s, the ­federal government gave itself the authority to admit or exclude people through a series of acts of Congress and Supreme Court decisions.

As well as formal deportation, Goodman explains how removing people from the US has often involved both self-deportation and voluntary deportation.

But there is nothing “voluntary” about coercing people into agreeing to leave.

Goodman estimates that some 90 percent of expulsions of people throughout US history have been through voluntary deportation, largely hidden from the legal system.

In 1931, William N Doak was appointed to oversee the Bureau of Immigration—one of the precursors to today’s Ice. He set out to remove 100,000 “evaders of our alien laws”.

Agents searched “homes, churches, picket lines, public spaces, bars, dance halls and pool halls, sometimes without a warrant”.

The spectacular brutality of the raids was intended to work ­alongside the self-deportation drives by ­scaring people into leaving cities like Los Angeles on their own accord.

The deportation machine has ­targeted different groups throughout history, from Chinese labourers in the late 19th century to Minnesota’s Somali community today.

But the history of deportation in the US has largely been, according to Goodman, “the history of removing Mexicans”. They make up nine out of ten deportees.

An article in Life magazine in 1951 referred to an “invasion force” of Mexican migrants. It spread fear that the Mexican agricultural worker would never be unemployed.

This was “because he can weed a 1,000 foot furrow without once straightening up and he willingly works with the short-handled hoe”, which “tortures American spines”.

Some workers bought into the lie that migrants would undermine wages and conditions.

Biological racism was also used to define who was American and who was deportable.

Migrants were portrayed as ­economically inactive and a ­potential burden on the state.

They were seen as potential ­carriers of infectious ­diseases, as political subversives and as a sexual threat to women and girls.

This highlights a ­contradiction in the way the US controls migration.

The labour of migrant workers has been indispensable to bosses for over 100 years.

At times the state has ­tolerated unauthorised migration as a source of cheap labour, especially if migrants can be kept in a state of fear and precarity.

But in times of crisis the state can revert to cracking down on migration.

In the 1990s, Democrat Bill Clinton launched a campaign to “regain control” of the border with Mexico.

The total number of deportations reached an all-time high of over ­1.86 million in the year 2000.

Goodman explains how since then there has actually been a steady decline in the numbers of people removed.

But for the first time the number of formal removals began to overtake so-called voluntary departures.

This was backed up by ­militarised borders. A rapidly expanding ­network of privately run detention facilities has incarcerated people whose only “crime” is crossing a border and ­separated them from family, friends and legal support.

Between 1986 and 2016, the number of Border Patrol officers increased from 3,700 to over 23,000.

It has more officers licensed to carry weapons than any other branch of the federal government except the military.

Ice was established in 2003, replacing several existing agencies. While the Border Patrol polices the borders, Ice investigates and removes people from within US territory.

As author Amy Kaplan argues, this fuels the idea that the US is in ­constant danger from migrants both within and outside its borders.

Despite the dangers they face, migrants in the US have organised for decades to defend their rights.

In the 1970s, trade unions became more sympathetic to organising undocumented migrants.

Factory bosses exploited migrant workers by exposing them to dangerous working conditions, which in turn harmed all workers.

Trade unionists from the ILGWU garment workers’ union saw directly how anti-migrant raids were ­damaging their ability to organise.

At one point, a raid removed 17 of the 20 strikers on their picket line.

In 2006, there were mass marches in over 160 cities and a day without migrants on 1 May. Over one million people took action. The movement was key to preventing the Senate passing a draconian anti-migrant bill.

The movement in Minneapolis today can deepen as students walk out of schools and universities and workers from all backgrounds ­organise to resist Ice.

It is this working class power that can throw a spanner in the works of the deportation machine.


Counter-protesters in Minneapolis drown out far-right influencer


 ORNING STAR, UK

Jake Lang, center in the vest, who organized the March Against Minnesota Fraud, clashes with pro-immigration counterprotesters near Minneapolis City Hall, January 17, 2026, in Minneapolis


by Our International Desk


HUNDREDS of counter-protesters drowned out a far-right activist’s attempt to hold a small rally in support of the Trump administration’s latest immigration crackdown in Minneapolis on Saturday.

Far-right influencer Jake Lang organised an anti-Islam, anti-Somali and pro-Ice demonstration, saying on social media beforehand that he intended to “burn a Koran” on the steps of City Hall. But it was not clear if he carried out that plan.

This came as the governor’s office announced that National Guard troops were mobilised and ready to assist law enforcement though not yet deployed to city streets.

There have been protests every day since the Department of Homeland Security ramped up immigration enforcement in the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St Paul by bringing in more than 2,000 federal officers.

Only a small number of people showed up for Mr Lang’s demonstration, while hundreds of counter-protesters converged at the site, yelling over his attempts to speak and chasing the pro-Ice group away.

They forced at least one person to take off a shirt they deemed objectionable.

Mr Lang was eventually forced to leave the scene in some discomfort. He was previously charged with assaulting an officer with a baseball bat, civil disorder and other crimes before receiving clemency as part of President Donald Trump’s sweeping act of clemency for January 6 defendants last year. He recently announced that he is running for the US Senate in Florida.

In Minneapolis, snowballs and water balloons were also thrown before an armoured police van and heavily equipped city police arrived.

“We’re out here to show Nazis and Ice and DHS and Maga you are not welcome in Minneapolis,” protester Luke Rimington said. “Stay out of our city, stay out of our state. Go home.”

The Minneapolis immigration clampdown saw Renee Good, a US citizen and mother of three, shot dead by an Ice officer, Jonathan Ross, during a January 7 confrontation


Pardoned January 6 rioter pelted with snowballs and water balloons at rally

Sarah Hooper
Published January 18, 2026 
METRO UK

One of the men Donald Trump pardoned for taking part in the January 6 insurrection sparked fury from protesters after holding a rally in support of ICE officers.

Jake Lang gathered a small group of supporters in Minneapolis, Minnesota, playing the song ‘Ice Ice Baby’ and talking about how immigrants were ‘replacing’ white people.

He advertised the rally as a ‘Crusader March’ on ‘Little Somalia’, which was labelled as racist and Islamophobic. He also vowed to burn a copy of the Quran.

Lang posted on social media before the rally: ‘America is a CHRISTIAN COUNTRY; we will not allow Somali Daycare Pirates to overtake Minneapolis.’

The scene quickly descended into chaos, as protesters marching against immigration raids in Minneapolis clashed with Lang’s group.

Emotions are running high in Minnesota after an ICE agent fatally shot US citizen Renee Good as she was sitting in her car earlier this month.
His march was called a ‘Crusader March’ (Picture: Reuters)
Snowballs rained down on the Conservative influencer (Picture: Reuters)

Lang and his group had water balloons and snowballs thrown at them by anti-immigration protesters, and quickly left the scene.

He posted on social media afterwards, claiming he had been ‘stabbed by a crazy white commie leftist rioter’. It’s unclear if his claims are true.

These protests have become common on the streets of Minneapolis since a federal agent shot Good on January 7.

Agents have pulled people from cars and homes and been confronted by angry bystanders demanding that officers pack up and leave.

Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey described the situation as not ‘sustainable’ and has urged ICE to leave.

On Friday, Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act, which would allow him to deploy troops as protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations continue in Minneapolis.
Lang had water balloons and snowballs thrown at him (Picture: Reuters)
Lang led chants with his small group before others began protesting (Picture: Reuters)

Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the rarely used federal law to deploy the US military or federalise the National Guard for domestic law enforcement, over the objections of state governors.

‘If the corrupt politicians of Minnesota don’t obey the law and stop the professional agitators and insurrectionists from attacking the Patriots of I.C.E., who are only trying to do their job, I will institute the INSURRECTION ACT, which many Presidents have done before me, and quickly put an end to the travesty that is taking place in that once great State,’ he wrote on social media.

Minnesota attorney general Keith Ellison responded by saying he would challenge any deployment in court.

He is already suing to try to stop the surge by the Department of Homeland Security, which says it has made more than 2,000 arrests in the state since early December.
.
Europe in 2025

Saturday 17 January 2026, by Éric Toussaint




This report was initially presented at the CADTM International Council meeting held in Liège and Brussels from 13 to 16 October 2025.


The political situation in Europe is very bad.

The far right is in government in several countries: Italy, Hungary, Belgium (the Prime Minister is from the NVA), Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Croatia, not to mention Sweden (where the far right, without being part of the minority government, supports it). [1]

The far right has succeeded in becoming the leading political force in Italy (Brothers of Italy), France (RN), Hungary (Fidesz-Hungarian Civic Union), the Netherlands (Geert Wilders’ PVV Partij voor de Vrijheid) [2] and Austria (FPÖ). The Vlaams Belang (neo-fascist) in Flanders was the party that received the most votes in the European elections in June 2024, ahead of the Flemish far-right party NVA.

The Presidency of the European Commission (led by German conservative Ursula Von Der Leyen) reached an agreement with the far-right parliamentary group led by Georgia Meloni of Italy, which allowed this far-right parliamentary group to obtain a position as Executive Vice-President of the European Commission and three committee presidencies. [3] This is extremely important because the three committees that Meloni’s European parliamentary group has obtained are agriculture, budget and petitions. As a result, petitions from the European people, such as attempts to obtain a referendum, will be handled by a committee chaired by the far right. [4]

Ursula Von Der Leyen is supported by four European parliamentary groups: 1. the European People’s Party group (CDU-CSU Germany, PP Spain, ND Greece, etc.); 2. the Socialists and Social Democrats group (French PS, French-speaking Belgian PS, Flemish, Spanish, Greek, German SPD, etc.); 3. the RENEW group, which includes Macron and the French-speaking Belgian MR, which is very right-wing; 4. The European Greens group [5]. As mentioned above, Ursula Von der Leyen, supported by these four groups, has entered into agreements with Meloni’s far right (i.e. the ECR group, of which the far-right Flemish NVA is a member). This is extremely serious.

A recent positive note: in the Irish presidential elections on 24 October 2025, Catherine Connolly, the candidate supported by the entire left, was elected. She opposes Ireland’s membership of NATO and criticises what she calls the ‘militarisation of the European Union’. Catherine Connolly supports migrants’ rights, denounces the ongoing genocide in Gaza, defends public services and wants a housing programme for the working classes.

The European Union is:
– directly complicit in the genocide carried out by the neo-fascist government in Israel;
– applying and reinforcing an INHUMANE migration policy;
– significantly increasing arms spending and strengthening its participation in NATO by submitting itself even more to the leadership of the United States;
– abandoning its commitments to combat climate change and the ecological crisis;
– increasing illegitimate public debt;
– reinforcing austerity policies directed against the working classes;
– is in favour of increasing gifts to big business and the richest 1%;
– is significantly reducing the amounts allocated to what is called development aid;
– is continuing to sign free trade agreements (such as the one with MERCOSUR) while applying a protectionist policy towards China.

National governments in and outside the EU are stepping up repressive policies against protests.

The economic situation in Europe is very bad: economic growth is very low (almost zero). We are not at all fans of growth, but from a capitalist point of view, having growth close to zero is a problem for European capitalists. [6]

The economic sectors that are growing are mainly those involved in the production of weapons of war.

In general, there is a sharp increase in poor-quality jobs with precarious contracts.
The increase in public and private debt in Europe

It is clear that there is a very sharp increase in both public and large private corporate debt. The indebtedness of the working classes has also increased, given the downward pressure on real incomes, whether in terms of wages or social benefits and allowances. The loss of purchasing power is offset by greater recourse to debt on the part of working-class households.

The argument that public debt has reached record levels and is becoming unsustainable for the budget is once again being systematically used by governments that are in fact responsible for the increase in debt. They have increased public debt because they refused to make the large private companies and the major shareholders who continued to enrich themselves pay for the costs of the crises caused by capitalism. Examples include Big Pharma, GAFAM, energy production and distribution companies, food and distribution companies, banks, and arms manufacturers, all of which have made huge profits.

So, by not increasing taxes on large corporations and continuing to give gifts to the richest, the public authorities have increased public debt.

In 2025, France’s public debt reached 114% of gross domestic product, Italy’s was 138%, Greece’s 152%, Belgium’s 107%, Spain’s 103% and the other countries were generally below 100%. A large majority of European Union countries are well above the 60% of GDP stipulated in the Maastricht Treaty. We question the validity of comparing debt stock to GDP, but since this ratio is used by governments and the treaties governing the EU, it constitutes a means of measurement, however flawed it may be.

What is certain is that, contrary to what the right wing claims, the increase in public debt is not caused by excessive social spending or wage expenditure in the civil service or public investment in the fight against climate change.

The increase in public debt is the result of two factors: 1. a policy of increasing illegitimate spending, such as public aid to large companies and an increase in public orders to the arms industry, Big Pharma (during the pandemic), etc. 2. a policy of insufficient public revenue due to the refusal to tax the rich and their (super) profits.

The right wing, which was looking for an argument to take austerity policies and attacks on the gains made since the Second World War to a new level, is seizing on this situation to argue that cuts in social spending and public investment, particularly in relation to the fight against climate change and the ecological crisis, must be increased.

They also took advantage of the situation to reduce development aid spending. We had no illusions about how development aid is carried out, but we realise that reducing it is not in the interests of the peoples of the South: when Trump shut down US Aid altogether, it had disastrous effects on the health of millions of people in Africa who were receiving treatment for AIDS, for example.
Those in power are deliberately dramatising the issue of debt

The issue of debt is being dramatised, and we must denounce this. We are not facing the prospect of collapse or an inability to repay. What is needed from the left’s point of view is a government that would declare, on the basis of a citizen-participatory debt audit, that part of the public debt is illegitimate or even odious, and that a significant portion of it must be cancelled. We would like to see a left-wing government implementing policies that benefit the population and making huge public investments in the fight against the ecological crisis take such a decision.

For example, the European Central Bank still holds nearly €3.6 trillion in public debt securities from eurozone countries, or just under 20% of each country’s public debt. If the ECB were to cancel these debts, there would be a reduction of around 20% and the argument for pursuing austerity policies would fall away. Indeed, as long as the ECB is a creditor of a significant portion of the debt, it can exert pressure on progressive governments that would like to pursue anti-austerity policies.

It should be remembered that in 2021, an international appeal for the cancellation of public debts held by the European Central Bank (ECB) attracted considerable attention. The opinion piece titled Cancel the public debt held by the ECB and ’take back control’ of our destiny, published on 8 February 2021, appeared simultaneously in major media outlets across eight European countries on 5 February 2021.

In December 2021, an international appeal revisited the same subject: Call: Why Eurozone countries’ debt to the ECB must be cancelled, CADTM, 7 December 2021, signed by Éric Toussaint, Sonia Mitralias, CADTM Europe, Paul Murphy, Miguel Urbán Crespo, Andrej Hunko, Cristina Quintavalla, Manon Aubry, Leïla Chaibi and others.

This is an extremely important issue when it comes to discussing alternatives. But of course there are also the debts claimed by big capital, which buys public debt securities, and in this case, progressive governments that are elected should take measures to cancel/repudiate them.

Now, if the right wing remains in power, it will use the argument of the amount of public debt to pursue more severe austerity policies. This will in no way solve the economic problems of the European Union, but it will increase big capital’s capacity to attack labour.

It will not solve the structural economic problems of the European Union, but in the battle between capital and labour, capital will score points thanks to attacks carried out in the name of the need to make cuts in order to repay the public debt.

The issue of public debt is therefore a central one. And on this point, in response to some on the left who say that there is no public debt problem, CADTM must say that this response is too simplistic, that there really is a public debt problem because a large part of it is illegitimate.

Yes, the amount of public debt is not dramatic, but it is very significant and unjustified. This public debt must be radically reduced. Not by accelerating repayments, but on the contrary by largely refusing to make repayments and by making big capital – which has systematically profited from it – pay the cost of these debt cancellations in order to free up resources for a different type of policy and a different model of human development that respects ecological balances.
The level of popular resistance and international solidarity

There have been significant social protests in 2025: in France, Greece, Belgium, Italy, Serbia, etc. There was a strong social protest in Ukraine on the theme of the fight against corruption in July 2025.

There is a very significant movement of solidarity with the Palestinian people, with millions of people mobilizing and continuing to mobilize in Europe against genocide. This is very positive.

There is also a movement of solidarity with the Ukrainian people.

Movements of solidarity with migrants are significant but insufficient.

Mobilisations for climate justice have declined, particularly because the priority has shifted towards solidarity with the Palestinian people, which is entirely understandable.
Assessment of anti-illegitimate debt movements in Europe

Anti-debt movements have not regained momentum over the last three years, despite the increase in debt and the increase in austerity policies.

At the social movements university held in Bordeaux from 23 to 26 August 2025, there was a good turnout from CADTM Europe and Africa.

The CADTM Autumn Meetings held in Liège from 10 to 12 October 2025 were a great success, with more than 300 participants, bringing us closer to the mobilisation capacity we had in 2015-2018.

Nevertheless, in terms of strengthening CADTM in Europe, there is still a long way to go to reach the level we had before the coronavirus pandemic.
Conclusions

1. Europe is experiencing an authoritarian and reactionary drift, marked by the normalisation of the far right and its integration into the power structures of the European Union, with serious consequences for democracy, social rights and civil liberties.
2. The European Union acts as a central player in the neoliberal and militarist order, prioritising the interests of big capital, the arms industry and NATO, to the detriment of social justice, climate justice and human rights.
3. Public debt is a political instrument, not an inevitable technical problem: its growth is the result of conscious decisions by governments that protect the beneficiaries of crisis capitalism and shift the costs to the working classes.
4. Austerity policies do not solve Europe’s structural problems, but rather deepen inequality, weaken public services and reinforce capital’s offensive against labour.5. The auditing and cancellation of illegitimate debt is a key condition for a progressive alternative, along with fair taxation, a break with militarism and massive public investment geared towards ecological and social transition.
5. Despite the adverse context, there are dynamics of resistance and solidarity, which show the persistence of a social and popular Europe capable of articulating struggles against war, racism, austerity and climate injustice.

1 January 2026

Source: CADTM.


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Footnotes


[1] In the Netherlands, the far right (= Geert Wilders’ PVV) has not been anymore in government since June 2025. And following the results of the elections on 29 October 2025, in which this party’s results fell sharply, a new government will probably be formed without the participation of the PVV.


[2] In 2023, the far-right PVV had grown significantly, from 17 seats in 2021 to 37 in 2023. In October 2025, the party suffered a significant setback, losing around 11 seats and falling to 26. In the elections, the center-right D66 party enjoyed electoral success, enabling it to overtake the PVV by around 30,000 votes. D66 obtained around 1,790,000 votes, compared with around 1,760,000 for the PVV.


[3] The ECR group secured the appointment of one of its members, Raffaele Fitto (Italy) from Meloni’s party (Fratelli di Italia), as Executive Vice-President of the European Commission (mandate of the ‘von der Leyen II’ Commission, which took office on 1 December 2024) for the ‘Cohesion and Reforms’ portfolio.


[4] Johan Van Overtveldt (member of Meloni’s ECR group in the European Parliament and of the N-VA party in Belgium) was elected chair of the Committee on Budgets (BUDG). Veronika Vrecionová (ECR, Czech Republic) was elected chair of the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development (AGRI). Bogdan Rzońca (ECR, Poland) was elected Chair of the Parliament’s Committee on Petitions (PETI).


[5] In the vote on 18 July 2024, the Greens/EFA voted in favour of von der Leyen’s re-election, after obtaining certain commitments from her on climate, social justice and ecological transition. Commitments that she is not keeping.


[6] For an alternative see Europe: For a different economic policy in response to the far right and Trump’s offensive, an interview with Eric Toussaint by Antoine Larrache.

Europe
Ukraine: To avoid warlike escalation, weapons for Ukraine!
For a campaign against rearmament, wars and imperialism
In support of “synchronized global disarmament”
Europe in the Trump-Putin Axis Trap
Brussels conference lifts Ukraine solidarity to higher plane



Éric Toussaint is a historian and political scientist who completed his Ph.D. at the universities of Paris VIII and Liège, is the international spokesperson of the CADTM (Committee for the Abolition of Illegitimate Debt) , and sits on the Scientific Council of ATTAC France.
He is the author of Debt System (2019), Bankocracy (2015); Glance in the Rear View Mirror. Neoliberal Ideology From its Origins to the Present, Haymarket books, Chicago; “Debt, the IMF, and the World Bank, Sixty Questions, Sixty Answers”, Monthly Review Press, New York, 2010. He has published extensively in this field. He is a member of the Fourth International leadership.



 

How America Plans to Refill Its Emergency Oil Stockpile Using Venezuelan Crude

The Trump administration is exploring a workaround to America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve problem: swapping heavy Venezuelan crude for U.S. medium sour barrels that can actually go straight into SPR caverns.

According to Reuters, the Department of Energy is considering moving Venezuelan heavy crude into commercial storage at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, while U.S. producers deliver medium sour crude into the SPR in exchange. It’s a crude-for-crude swap designed to solve a very practical issue that Washington rarely likes to admit exists.

Not all oil belongs in the SPR.


The reserve was built to hold mostly medium and heavy sour barrels. This is inconvenient because the US has an abundance of light, sweet shale crude. That mismatch has quietly complicated every refill effort since the reserve was drained during the 2022 price spike. As of the latest EIA data, SPR inventories sit just under 400 million barrels, barely more than half of capacity.

Venezuelan heavy crude fits into the SPR better than much of what the U.S. pumps today—on paper. But in practice, it’s not that simple. Heavy Venezuelan oil often needs blending, specialized handling, and infrastructure that the SPR itself doesn’t provide. Solution? Park the Venezuelan barrels elsewhere and backfill the reserve with U.S. medium sour crude.

This isn’t quite an SPR refill either. It’s a logistical sleight of hand that highlights how boxed-in the refill strategy has become. Buying hundreds of millions of barrels outright would cost tens of billions of dollars. Slow-walking purchases risks turning the SPR into a permanent half-empty museum exhibit.

The irony is that the U.S. doesn’t lack oil. It lacks the right oil in the right place at the right time. Net imports are negative, production is near record highs, and yet Washington is still improvising to make the reserve work as designed in the 1970s.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com


Oil Majors Tell Washington They Want PDVSA Out of the Way

International oil companies are wasting no time testing how serious Washington and Caracas really are about reviving Venezuela’s oil industry. And their opening demand is refreshingly blunt: if we’re going to invest, we need to control our barrels.

According to Reuters sources, international oil executives and lawyers are pushing for fast, targeted changes to Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law that would allow foreign partners to export the oil they produce directly, rather than handing it over to state oil company PDVSA to sell on their behalf. The ask is narrow by design. Leave PDVSA as majority owner, they say, but let international partners control their share of production, access export terminals, and—most importantly—get paid quickly.

Oil companies are likely to be sticklers on the last point. Under the current framework, PDVSA controls sales and deposits proceeds into joint venture accounts. That system collapsed under U.S. sanctions, leaving billions of dollars owed to partners including Chevron, ENI, and Repsol. For oil companies with long memories, Venezuela isn’t short on geology—it’s short on trust.


The industry is also pushing to roll back extra taxes layered onto the law in 2021, which pushed Venezuela’s government take to some of the highest levels in Latin America. Companies are signaling they can live with royalties and income tax. Extra taxes, opaque fees, PDVSA-controlled sales, delayed payments, or contracts open to interpretation, not so much.

This legal pressure campaign dovetails neatly with the Trump administration’s broader strategy. According to a Friday interview with Axios, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. is pursuing oil and critical minerals deals with Venezuela as part of a plan to stabilize the country economically and redirect exports away from China. The goal, Wright said, is higher production, cleaner flows, and a more predictable business environment—without U.S. government subsidies.

What’s emerging is a pragmatic alignment. Washington wants oil flowing under U.S. supervision. Oil companies want export control and legal clarity. Caracas wants cash flow and investment yesterday.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

Oil’s Problem Isn’t Iran or Russia — It’s Too Much Oil

  • Oil prices are retreating after a geopolitics-driven spike, as the glut narrative regains control.

  • Rising inventories, sanctioned crude weighing on tanker data, and new Venezuelan barrels reinforce oversupply fears.

  • Geopolitical risks still lurk, from Iranian unrest to drone attacks near key export routes, but so far they have failed to override expectations of ample supply and weaker price support.

Crude oil prices are in retreat after rising on the possibility of U.S. strikes on Iran. Before the retreat, however, Brent crude and WTI had jumped to the highest in months, countering bearish forecasts for the year—and tearing traders between geopolitics and fundamentals.

In fundamentals, the majority of observers and forecasters are unanimous that the supply of crude oil is substantially higher than demand. In fact, Goldman Sachs recently revised its price predictions for 2026, saying it now expected Brent crude to go even lower after shedding about a fifth of its value last year.

“Rising global oil stocks and our forecast of a 2.3mb/d surplus in 2026 suggest that rebalancing the market likely requires lower oil prices in 2026 to slow down non-OPEC supply growth and support solid demand growth, barring large supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts,” Goldman said earlier this week—even though protests in Iran were already making headlines and pushing the benchmarks higher.


On the other hand, the effective takeover by the United States of Venezuela’s oil industry has had an understandably bearish effect on prices. This week, a Washington official told media that the U.S. has sold the first batch of Venezuelan crude for $500 million, and more sales would follow. In terms of fundamentals, this strengthens the case for a bearish mood. However, statements by oil industry executives urging caution about the possibility of a quick turnaround in Venezuelan oil production have had a restraining effect on that mood.

Meanwhile, drone strikes on three tankers in the Black Sea fueled a new bout of supply disruption concern, to add to expectations of possible disruption in Iranian oil flows abroad. A Reuters report cited an unnamed source as saying Kazakhstan had suffered a 35% drop in its oil output over the first two weeks of January because of attacks that also included strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by Ukrainian forces. Kazakhstan has called on the United States and the European Union to help secure oil transport in the Black Sea.

Speaking of the European Union, reports emerged this week saying Brussels was planning a further cut in its price cap for Russian oil in a bid to reduce Russia’s oil revenues by tying Western insurance coverage to the price cap. The new level of the price cap will be set at $44.10 per barrel from next month. So far, the price caps have failed to cause much pain to the Russian budget, but the EU considers them a working mechanism to hurt Russia’s economy in a bid to make it withdraw from Ukraine.

Perhaps the most bullish development for oil from the past few days was the signal, from President Donald Trump, that he was not excluding the possibility of a military strike against Iran. That signal, however, has been quite quickly replaced by observations by the U.S. president that the Iranian government was easing its crackdown on the protesters, reducing the likelihood of a military strike. That’s when oil’s retreat began and continues today, in evidence that the glut narrative holds sway over the oil market.

Expectations of further growth in oil production remain dominant on that market, with forecasters such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency both predicting further supply growth, even as OPEC pauses its unwinding of production cuts implemented back in 2022 to prop up prices. Even so, shale drillers are signaling they would not be happy with WTI closer to $50 than to $60, and production growth is slowing. Indeed, the EIA forecast in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that U.S. oil production will flatten this year, even inch down and extend that decline into 2027.

This has been ignored by the oil market so far, even though U.S. oil production has been the main driver behind bearish market predictions thanks to its fast and significant growth. That growth is now gone but everyone seems to be ignoring the fact in the firm belief there is already too much oil in the world—and the data seems to support this, with media citing a Kpler calculation there were some 1.3 billion barrels of crude on water in December, which was the highest since 2020 and the pandemic lockdowns.

Reuters’ Ron Bousso, however, noted in a recent column that a quarter of that oil comes from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela—the sanctioned producers. That oil takes longer to find buyers because of the sanctions but it does find buyers, Bousso pointed out. This suggests the number of barrels on tankers is not necessarily the most accurate indication of a physical glut, especially in light of recently released Chinese import data, showing oil imports into the country hit a record both in December and in 2025 as a whole. Predicting oil prices is notoriously unreliable. These days it is even more unreliable than usual, it seems, as conflicting narratives and agendas keep clashing, making the oil market a confusing place to be.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com