Sunday, September 06, 2026

 

How ‘solar bonds’ could cut your energy bills without upfront installation costs

A man installing solar panels on a roof.
Copyright Bill Mead via Unsplash.


By Liam Gilliver
Published on


A solar bonds scheme could absorb the financial impact of rooftop solar, while keeping your energy bill savings. Here’s how.

Interest in rooftop solar has surged in recent months, as Europeans scramble to protect themselves from the spiralling costs of fossil fuels.

According to an EU-wide analysis published in the Nature Energy journal, rooftop solar photovoltaics (solar PV) could supply around 40 per cent of Europe’s electricity by 2050. However, only around 10 per cent of Europe’s building rooftops are currently equipped with PV.

Governments across the continent are trying to bolster uptake by offering generous subsidies or financial perks. For example, in Ireland homeowners can receive grants of up to €1,800 through the country’s sustainable energy scheme – while public grants in Hungary can cover up to two-thirds of solar panel costs for homeowners providing they meet specific requirements.

Many other countries such as Germany and the Netherlands have implemented benefits such as 0 per cent VAT on solar panel sales and installation to make the switch more affordable. However, heavy upfront installation costs remain a huge barrier – particularly among low-income households.

;But, could ‘solar bonds’ be the magic solution?

How much do solar panels cost and how long does it take to see a return?

The cost of installing solar panels can vary significantly, as there are many factors that can affect the pricing.

According to solar firm LOGI, a single family home in Europe typically needs between 6 and 15 kWp of solar power, depending on household size, heat pump use and electric car charging, which costs anything from €7,000 to €30,000. In the UK, a typical 4.5 kWp system is about £7,600 (€8,831).

While solar panels can save homeowners hundreds of euros on their energy bills every year, it can take time before you will see a return on your investment. Again, this can vary depending on multiple factors – including how much you have electrified your home, whether you work from home, and what type of tariff you are on.

Many experts, including the UK’s Energy Savings Trust, say it could take a typical home at least 10 years to recoup the costs of installing panels. It also requires hefty capital for installation, which in itself can cost up to £10,000 (€11,621). For many homeowners, this means taking out a loan subject to interest.

The need for ‘solar bonds’

This is why Dr Donal Brown, a senior researcher in energy policy and political economy at the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) is calling for government-backed finance to make rooftop solar more affordable.

Published by the Common Wealth thinktank, the report, titled A Right to the Sun, proposes a universal Solar Bond scheme under which all households with a suitable roof would be eligible to access solar panels without credit checks or other eligibility requirements that are usually associated with conventional loans.

This cost would be repaid over a 25-year period through household energy bills, with the finance attached to the property rather than the homeowner. This means if you move out, the loan and finance stays with the property, so the panels and their remaining repayments would be passed onto the next occupier.

The report found that such a scheme could save households at least £83 (€96) a year (or almost double with a battery) even when the cost of finance repayments are taken into ac

“Delivering this programme would also provide an opportunity to create jobs and improve livelihoods in communities across the UK,” the report says.

“A healthy market for rooftop solar installations already exists, with the Solar Trade Association estimating more than 42,000 new jobs could be created by an expanded rollout by 2030.”

 

'We have to contribute to nature': Meet the communities 'marrying glaciers' to bring new water to life

Eagle's Nest Point on Duiker Hill offering a view of the Hunza Valley in Gilgit-Baltistan. 14 June, 2026.
Copyright Evelyn Ann-Marie Dom


By Evelyn Ann-Marie Dom
Published on

Local communities in Gilgit-Baltistan in northern Pakistan are turning to the Indigenous practice of glacier grafting as water shortages take hold.

The world's highest peaks are located in the Himalaya and Karakoram mountain ranges, part of a vast mountain belt stretching across Asia. But beneath their grandeur lie some of the planet's most fragile ecosystems.

As temperatures continue to rise, glaciers are melting faster, increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods and disrupting the natural flow of meltwater. As glaciers shrink, less water is released in spring and summer, when communities need it the most.

In the Pakistan-administered Gilgit-Baltistan - an autonomous territo

What is glacier grafting?

Glacier grafting is a traditional method in which local communities create new, artificial glaciers in high-altitude regions to create a reliable source of water for irrigation, livestock and daily life.\

The technique is often referred to as a glacier marriage, when ice is collected from so-called male and female glaciers and transported to a new grafting site, chosen by the community, to create a new glacier.

The male glacier is typically grey in colour and contains debris such as soil, sand and pebbles. The female glacier, by contrast, is lighter, almost transparent, clear from debris and impurities and produces more water.

Dozens of porters collect pieces of ice from both male and female glaciers. They then transport the ice to the newly-selected grafting site in wooden baskets on their backs, travelling by car as far as the terrain allows and then continuing on foot.

The ideal grafting site to create a new glacier needs to be at an altitude of at least 4,000 metres, have a high permafrost level, have maximum wind explosure and minimum explosure to sunlight, and ideally should be north-facing, Dr. Zakir Hussain Zakir, Director of Planning and Development at the University of Baltistan, explains to Euronews.

Two clay pots holding water from the river Indus separating "male" and "female" ice pieces at a grafting site.
Two clay pots holding water from the river Indus separating "male" and "female" ice pieces at a grafting site. Baltistan Culture & Development Foundation (BCDF)

Once at the site, locals will have either dug a well or located an existing cave to place the ice in. The male and female ice pieces are placed inside, separated by clay pots holding water from the Indus river.

The ice is then covered with layers of sawdust, charcoal and apricot kernels. The process is repeated several times, creating multiple layers to protect and insulate the ice.

"It is a marathon activity," Dr. Zakir continues, explaining that the process can take up to 48 hours from ice collection to planting.

"From the collection of the ice pieces from the source to the destination, the ice has to be kept continuously moving," he adds, explaining that the ice is not allowed to touch the ground at any time during the journey.

While the site is surveyed and preparations are carried out during summer, the actual grafting takes place in October. By then, temperatures at altitudes of at least 4,000 metres will have dropped below zero, but there will be no snowfall yet.

Once the new glacier is exposed to several snow cycles, it will slowly start to expand. If successful, the glacier will start to root and produce water after about ten years. After roughly another decade, the glacier will have grown into a reliable water source.

Dr. Zakir highlighted two other techniques derived from glacier grafting: ice towering and avalanche harvesting.

Ice towers, also called ice stupas as their conical shape resembles a Buddhist sanctuary, act as ice reservoirs designed to melt slower as its surface area is not fully exposed to the sun. Developed in Ladakh, the technique involves passing glacier meltwater through underground pipes and spraying it into the freezing air.

Avalanche harvesting, a recent innovation, involves the installation of a mesh net in a narrow gorge to capture and store snow and ice from avalanches.

An ecological practice rooted in tradition

Although glacier grafting was only revived in the 1990s, the ecological practice goes back centuries and is deeply rooted in local tradition, knowledge and ancestry.

"The history of glacier grafting is largely oral, not written, although some books contain references [to the craft]," Nazir Ahmed, CEO of the Baltistan Culture & Development Foundation, explains to Euronews.

The history of glacier grafting is believed to date back to the 14th century. According to historical accounts, the Persian Sufi saint Mir Syed Ali Hamadani is said to have grafted the first glacier as a defence tactic to help deter invaders.

Porters travelling up to glacier grafting site, carrying ice pieces in wooden baskets on their backs.
Porters travelling up to glacier grafting site, carrying ice pieces in wooden baskets on their backs. Baltistan Culture & Development Foundation (BCDF)

The unique craft is deeply intertwined with local traditions, including reciting verses from the Quran, singing a folk lullaby to the 'baby' glacier, and performing spiritual rituals.

"There are three myths," Ahmed explains. "One is that you need to carry the ice at night [...]. It is said that by carrying the ice during the day, God will not be happy, as you are bringing a new object in the territory."

"Secondly, when you're carrying the ice, you cannot talk to each other, otherwise you will become mute."

"And third, when the ice is buried at the top, you cannot see it for at least two years, otherwise, someone will die in your family," Ahmed concludes.

While these beliefs are rooted in mythology, the culture and heritage foundation CEO explains that they also serve a practical purpose.

Carrying the ice at night decreases the chance of disruptions and minimises melting because temperatures are at their lowest, while travelling in silence helps ice porters maintain a steady pace. Once buried, the newly planted ice must be left undisturbed for several years, allowing it to properly root while protecting it from being taken or disturbed by others.

The Baltistan Culture & Development Foundation (BCDF) is a local organisation formed by the people of Baltistan, dedicated to preserving and restoring heritage, promoting local culture and traditions, and protecting the region's environment.

In 2025, the BCDF received funding from the United Kingdom's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), allowing the foundation to expand its projects.

"Through the project, we grafted ten glaciers in different villages in Baltistan, six ice towers in different villages and one botanical garden in the University of Baltistan," Ahmed explains.

Prior to the funding, the foundation could only undertake smaller-scale projects, transporting up to 200 kilograms of ice. But it's now able to transport more than 1,000 kilograms of ice at a time.

The foundation has not yet received funding from either the provincial or federal government, although efforts are underway to have glacier grafting recognised by UNESCO as Intangible Cultural Heritage.

'How can the life giver itself be lifeless?'

From start to finish, the community plays a key role in the practice. No glacier can be seeded without the community's consent first, and once the grafting is complete, locals take on the responsibility of caring for the 'baby' glacier. They monitor its progress, report on its development and add snow when necessary to help it grow.

The Passu Glacier south of Passu village in Upper Hunza, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. 13 June, 2026.
The Passu Glacier south of Passu village in Upper Hunza, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. 13 June, 2026. Evelyn Ann-Marie Dom

"We have to contribute to nature, to the climate, to the environment," Dr. Zakir says. "Because we are consuming snowmelt water for our entire life, and if we don't contribute something, it would be unjust".

He explained that this responsibility is rooted in the region's ancient civilisation and its spiritual foundation.

"In Bonism, we consider that all forms of water are sentient beings," he said. "Water is a life giver, so how can the life giver itself be lifeless?"

Young people are needed to continue the glacier grafting tradition

With community at the heart of the practice, youth engagement is crucial to keeping the tradition alive, especially as the region faces the growing impacts of climate change.

But Nazir Ahmed points out a growing challenge: many young people leave their communities to move to urban cities.

"If we talk about Skardu district, almost over 90 per cent of people are in school. And then after graduation, they usually go to cities like Karachi, Lahore or Islamabad for further study," the BCDF CEO explains, adding that grafting is also a labour and time intensive practice.

"I don't see this as a decline in environmental concern," Zeeshan Abbas, team leader at the youth-led initiative Siachen Sherpa, points out to Euronews. He says that alongside climate change, young people are increasingly concerned about issues such as education, employment, economic security and migration.

"Many young people understand that glaciers are changing and that climate change is affecting the region, but few have the resources, opportunities or institutional support to participate in field projects".

Abbas also believes the way climate action is presented needs to change.

"If we tell young people that climate change is a crisis, they can become overwhelmed," he said. Instead, he argues, younger generations should be empowered to see themselves as capable of developing solutions.

According to the 19-year-old, his generation holds a powerful and unique position in society.

"We inherit Indigenous knowledge from our communities, but we also have access to modern science, digital tools and technology, and global networks," Abbas says, highlighting how Siachen Sherpa aims to bridge these two forms of knowledge.

"Local communities understand the landscape through generations of experience - where water flows, how the terrain behaves, where freezing occurs and how seasonal conditions change. Technology helps us complement that knowledge through satellite information, GPS, terrain and altitude data and field observations," he added.

"Young people should not be treated as only victims of climate change, they should be given the opportunity to become researchers, innovators, field practitioners and decision-makers," Abbas conclude

Countries contributing less to global emissions often suffer more

Pakistan's Third Pole glaciers irrigate 90 per cent of agricultural land and sustain more than 220 million people, according to the World Economic Forum.

The Third Pole, or the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya mountain range contains the world’s largest volume of frozen freshwater outside the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions.

Experts warn that human-caused global warming is placing unprecedented pressure on these regions, with floods, landslides, avalanches and droughts increasing in frequency and intensity.

"In Northern Pakistan, the melting of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayan glaciers due to rising temperatures have created 3,044 glacial lakes in the federally-administered territory of Gilgit-Baltistan and province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa," the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the leading UN organisation fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality and climate change, wrote in a statement.

People walking through the village of Sost, with a vast mountain range as backdrop in Upper Hunza, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. 12 June, 2026.
People walking through the village of Sost, with a vast mountain range as backdrop in Upper Hunza, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. 12 June, 2026. Evelyn Ann-Marie Dom

"It is estimated that 33 of these glacial lakes are hazardous and likely to result in glacial lake outburst floods," the statement further read, adding that such flooding can release millions of cubic metres of water and debris in just a few hours.

Last week, a glacial collapse sent large amounts of rock, ice and meltwater into valleys below, triggering a tsunami-like flood in Nepal and Tibet.

There are several causes of glacier collapses. On the one hand they can be normal, cyclical processes. Increasingly, though, they are being driven by human-induced climate change.

Despite contributing less than 1 per cent of global emissions annually, Pakistan is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Meanwhile, a 2025 study revealed that the world's wealthiest 10 per cent are responsible for two-thirds of global warming since 1990.

 

Oil use and emissions fell in China as Iran war curbed imports. Will it be a lasting change?

FILE - A boy cycles past a cooling towers of a coal-fired power plant in Dadong, Shanxi province, China, 3 Dec. 2009.
Copyright AP Photo/Andy Wong, File


By Angela Symons with AFP
Published on

This is the first time that reductions in oil consumption – rather than coal – have been responsible for a drop in China's CO2 emissions.

China's carbon dioxide emissions fell in the second quarter of the year, new analysis shows.

The country's emissions have fallen before, but this was the first time it was driven by lower oil consumption – with a "dramatic fall" in China’s demand for oil imports following Middle East shipping disruptions linked to the US-Iran war.

Planet-warming CO2 emissions were down one per cent in the April-June period, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) analysis published by Carbon Brief.

Oil use fell nine per cent overall and 16 percent for transport, based on assessments of Chinese government data.

The situation "has very clearly validated China's energy security strategy and especially the role of electrification as a part of that strategy", says CREA co-founder and lead analyst Lauri Myllyvyrta.

Restricted oil imports have sped up electrification in China

Severe disruption to traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz – which was previously used to transport 20 per cent of the world's oil and gas – has heavily impacted shipments of oil to China, the world's second-largest economy and the top importer of crude.

Now, more than six months into the US-Iran war, China has weathered the complications more smoothly than many experts initially anticipated.

Myllyvirta says that the crisis has accelerated adoption of electric fleets in China across traditionally gas-guzzling industries including construction and mining.

"These kinds of changes are highly likely to prove sticky," he says.

Electric heavy-truck sales rose by about 77 per cent in the second quarter year-on-year, while the number of EVs on the road grew by 33 per cent and charging volumes rose by 60 per cent, indicating increased utilisation of existing EVs.

Previous drops in China's emissions have been driven primarily by lower coal consumption, rather than oil, according to the CREA.

Solar has surpassed coal in the world's biggest emitter

China is the world's biggest emitter, responsible for over 30 per cent of global greenhouse gases.

Its leaders have promised to step up efforts to reduce CO2 and boost the green transition, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060.

While emissions fell in the second quarter, they rose two per cent in the first, according to the CREA data, leaving levels "up marginally across the first half of the year".

Earlier this week, Chinese authorities said that the country's installed solar energy capacity had surpassed that of coal-fired power for the first time.

China has seen explosive growth in renewable installation, with coal's share in its energy mix edging down in recent years.

Still, emissions from the power sector rose between April-June due to increased coal use, while gas-fired generation fell. This is despite strong growth in wind and solar capacity, with “wasted” power a persistent problem linked to a grid not adapted to increasing shares of variable renewable generation.

 

Ladies Only: Afghan pop star Aryana Sayeed takes on Taliban with European tour



By Theo Farrant & Tokunbo Salako
Published on

Aryana Sayeed, one of Afghanistan’s biggest pop stars, is kicking off a women-only European tour, using her platform to bring Afghan women together and speak out for women’s rights.

She was one of Afghanistan’s biggest stars. Then the Taliban returned to power and she fled the country. Now, Aryana Sayeed is taking her music and message across Europe - with one key difference: the audiences will be women only.

Sayeed remains one of the most recognisable faces in Afghanistan, building a huge following as a singer, an outspoken advocate for women's rights, and from her time as a judge on The Voice Afghanistan and other major talent shows in the country.

But when the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan in 2021, her life and career changed dramatically. Unable to return home or perform there, Sayeed has continued her work from abroad, using her platform and her organisation DEFAW (Defenders of Equality, Freedom, and Advancement for Women) to speak out for Afghan women and girls living under what she calls "dark days."

Five years on, she is taking her message of hope across Europe with her "Ladies Only_"_ tour, a series of concerts exclusively for women. The tour begins this Friday in Rotterdam, where Sayeed will perform at the Laurenskerk. She will then head to Stockholm on 5 September, followed by Hamburg on 26 September and Wiesbaden, near Frankfurt, on 3 October.

Ahead of the shows, Euronews Culture spoke to her about what sparked the idea behind her Ladies Only concerts, the current situation facing women and girls in Afghanistan, and the message she hopes to share through her music and activism.

When did you come up with the idea for a ladies-only tour?

Aryana Sayeed: Well, I have been planning to do this Ladies-Only tour for the past three or four years. Since the Taliban took over the power in Afghanistan, you know, they literally banned women from most things. Like, they have banned schools for girls past grade six, and women are not allowed to work anymore.They are not even allowed to go to the park. You know, like some simple things in life. They're not allowed to do it anymore.

So when all of this happened, obviously, besides my singing career, I am also an activist for women's rights in Afghanistan. And I thought, you know what? We need to stand against this injustice, against the Taliban and what they're doing. And so I thought initially it would be a great idea to do this Ladies-Only concert where we show the power of women, where we stand together as women, and raise our voice and raise awareness against the injustices that are going on in Afghanistan and stand up for the millions of voiceless women in Afghanistan.

Many people around the world will know you from The Voice of Afghanistan. How influential has your voice been in Afghanistan, and how big are you there?

Well, it's really hard to talk about yourself and say how big you are, but I know that the things that I have been doing in Afghanistan for the past, I would say, 15 years have been quite effective. It has had major effects on the society. It has been able to give so much hope to the hopeless women of Afghanistan.

Empowering them in a way to think differently, to know their rights and to stand up for their rights and things like that. As much as I've been focused on my singing career, as much I've been focused on my activist side as well, trying to give voice to the voiceless women of Afghanistan.

I used to be a judge on these talent shows, and I used to be present there during all of these problems and issues as well. Even before the Taliban came, Afghan women did not have their full rights at all. Before the Taliban came, things were getting along really well, and the things that we were doing in Afghanistan, the effect it had on society, was going really well.

Since the Taliban returned to power five years ago, do you feel more free and more heard outside Afghanistan, as a performer and as someone delivering a message of hope?

Even when I was in Afghanistan, I still had my concerts outside of Afghanistan. I still was touring all this time. For me, there's no major difference in that field. But I do feel that we are very isolated now. I do feel like there's so much that I could do in my country. There's so much more that I could. But right now, I am unable to do that because of the fact that I'm not allowed to go back to Afghanistan. I'm not allowed to physically be there, be on the screen of the TV, give out my messages, be that support and that hope for the Afghan women.

But the one thing that I'm grateful for is the fact that we were able to establish the organisation outside Afghanistan. I have this organisation called DEFAW, which stands for Defenders of Equality, Freedom and Advancement for Women. And through the organisation, I've been trying to be active and do my activism through that and raise awareness and try to be the support for the voiceless women of Afghanistan, do interviews all around the world and try to be, you know, as helpful as I can.

And the great thing is that in Afghanistan, we still have YouTube, we still have all these platforms where women can be connected with me, so they can still hear me, they can still see my videos.

Aryana Sayeed moderating a talk with Pakistani education activist Malala Yousafzai & Sahar Halaimzai, director of Malala Fund's Afghanistan Initiative, 15 August 2025, London Credit: DEFAW/Hasib Sayed

You can’t completely silence voices like yours, particularly when young girls can still access your work online. What message would you give to those girls who look up to you?

The one advice that I constantly keep giving them is not to give up hope because honestly, they are living in the dark, dark, dark ages right now. I speak to around 100 Afghan women or girls inside Afghanistan on a monthly basis through my organisation, through Zoom. And I actually get to speak to them, ask them questions, hear their stories. And what they tell me is heartbreaking, quite sad.

They literally talk without crying because of the fact that they've been abandoned from school and from work, and they feel so hopeless and they feel so useless as humans. Most of them have to just go ahead and get married, you know, at a young age because they don't see a future and they don't have another choice.

Let's say a woman who doesn't have a husband and doesn't have somebody to support the family with the income, with the food, with the money and everything. What is she going to do? And she's not allowed to go to work. So the only choice left for her is just go to bed. That's it. And so it's really sad to hear all these stories.

Because I honestly, I do feel from the bottom of my heart that these dark days will pass. They will not exist forever. This is, at least as a human, what I think, because what they have brought upon women in Afghanistan is ridiculous and inhumane, and this kind of a life, I don't think it's going to last forever.

People will eventually raise their voices. People will eventually stand up against them, and justice will prevail. Maybe it will. I don't know when. Maybe it will last another two, three, four or five years. But it cannot be forever. I don't believe that.

Men will obviously have a crucial role in making that change happen. What is your message to Afghan men, both inside Afghanistan and those living in exile?

I have literally made videos on social media and asked the Afghan men all around the world, and particularly in Afghanistan, to stand up for the rights of their women, for their mothers, for sisters, and for the women in general. And that's my message to them. I have a strong feeling that unless Afghan men come together and stand up for the women, women alone cannot do much for themselves.

And in order for this change to come, or for the women to have their full rights, men need to start supporting them. And I have seen a glimpse of, you know, their support here and there. Of course, not inside Afghanistan yet, but I have seen Afghan men getting together for protests outside the country, like, for example, in Germany and the U.S. and other countries like this, which is a good sign, which is a good thing to happen.

And hopefully, there will be more of that in the future.

How would you describe your music?

Well, I mostly sing pop. My songs are pop. That's how I started. I started with R&B and then pop music, but then I also have a lot of traditional songs. Funny enough, when I went to Afghanistan for the first time in 2011, I mixed a few songs of, like, old 40, 50-year-old songs and I made them with new music, and I presented them on the stage to people and people just loved those songs.

For me, that gave me kind of this indication that people still love the traditional music. So I do traditional music, but also a big portion of my songs are dedicated to the rights of Afghan women. And those are the ones that are the most effective in the society, I would say. And I actually performed some of them at the European Parliament, at UNICEF and all these big government gatherings that take place.

And it's been amazing. And this is the part of my career I love and enjoy the most. The songs actually, you know, give me something that is very fulfilling as a human being and that performing well.

You mentioned what music means to you as a human being, so I can’t let you go without asking about artificial intelligence. A significant proportion of music streamed these days is either created or influenced by AI. Are you open to using AI in your music?

I find it scary. I honestly am not for AI at all. I don't like it. It scares me and it makes me worried of where are heading. I know in a way it's - it can be really good. It can be fantastic. But in a way we are losing that human touch. For example, nowadays they can even create the sound of the singers, they can create my sound, they can create my videos when I'm not even there.

And that scares me. That's not nice. I feel like the human touch should exist, and it should be there. And you cannot even compare it with AI at all. And I don't like AI, and I don't use it, and I'm not for it. I don't support it at all.

El Niño to be 'very strong' and last until February, UN climate agency warns


By Gavin Blackburn
Published on

El Niño tends to peak late in the year but heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year.

El Niño is set to become "very strong" in the months ahead, with the weather phenomenon near certain to persist through to February, the United Nations' climate agency warned on Thursday.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said El Niño would peak towards the end of this year, though its knock-on impacts for the climate will continue well into 2027.

"El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat," the WMO said.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change.

But scientists expect it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming from burning fossil fuels, while amping up weather extremes.

"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes," said UN chief António Guterres.

"The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather," he said.

"The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race."

'Massive blow' to economies

El Niño tends to peak late in the year but heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year.

The hottest year on record is 2024, following the last El Niño.

"This exceptional El Niño...has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world", said WMO chief Celeste Saulo.

"We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies."

She put disaster management authorities and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water on notice, saying there was "no time to lose" in getting ready.

El Niño warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

Drought-stressed wheat plants stand adjacent to parched ground in a field near Macksville, 16 May, 2026
Drought-stressed wheat plants stand adjacent to parched ground in a field near Macksville, 16 May, 2026 AP Photo

It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.

Conditions oscillate between El Niño and its opposite La Niña, with neutral conditions in between.

"Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity," the WMO said.

The UN agency classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, meaning it is set to reach the highest level out of four.

The WMO said there was an "exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent" that El Niño will continue through to February.

Pacific Ocean heating up

El Niño can reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometres away from the tropical Pacific.

Every El Niño is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns. This includes drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India, and shifting rainfall throughout the tropic

For September-November, WMO forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures "across almost all land areas", alongside rainfall patterns showing a "pronounced and classic atmospheric response to the strong Pacific El Niño", the UN's weather and climate agency said.

This satellite image provided by CIRA/NOAA shows three storms in the Pacific Ocean, 2 September, 2026
This satellite image provided by CIRA/NOAA shows three storms in the Pacific Ocean, 2 September, 2026 AP Photo

The index which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central eastern equatorial Pacific has strengthened from an average 1.5C above normal between May and July.

Weekly values between late July and mid-August ranged from around 2.2C to 2.6C above average, indicating continued El Niño intensification.

In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8C above average during July and early August.