Saturday, December 16, 2023

 

People, not the climate, caused the decline of the giant mammals


For years, scientists have debated whether humans or the climate have caused the population of large mammals to decline dramatically over the past several thousand years. A new study from Aarhus University confirms that climate cannot be the explanation


Peer-Reviewed Publication

AARHUS UNIVERSITY

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PREHISTORIC PEOPLE ARE ATTACKING AN ELEPHANT. NEW RESEARCH SHOWS THAT HUMANS AND NOT THE CLIMATE CAUSED A SHARP DECLINE IN ALMOST ALL MEGAFAUNA ON EARTH 50.000 YEARS AGO.

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CREDIT: FIRST PRINTED IN BRYANT & GAY, 1883. WOOD CARVING BY E. BAYARD.




About 100,000 years ago, the first modern humans migrated out of Africa in large numbers. They were eminent at adapting to new habitats, and they settled in virtually every kind of landscape - from deserts to jungles to the icy taiga in the far north.
 
Part of the success was human's ability to hunt large animals. With clever hunting techniques and specially built weapons, they perfected the art of killing even the most dangerous mammals.

 
But unfortunately, the great success of our ancestors came at the expense of the other large mammals.
 
It is well-known that numerous large species went extinct during the time of the world-wide colonization by modern humans. Now, new research from Aarhus University reveals that those large mammals that survived, also experienced a dramatic decline.

By studying the DNA of 139 living species of large mammals, the scientists have been able to show that abundances of almost all species fell dramatically about 50,000 years ago.
 
This is according to Jens-Christian Svenning, a professor and head of the Danish National Research Foundation's Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) at Aarhus University, and the initiator of the study.
 
"We’ve studied the evolution of large mammalian populations over the past 750,000 years. For the first 700,000 years, the populations were fairly stable, but 50,000 years ago the curve broke and populations fell dramatically and never recovered,” he says, and continues:
 
"For the past 800,000 years, the globe has fluctuated between ice ages and interglacial periods about every 100,000 years. If climate was the cause, we should see greater fluctuations when the climate changed prior to 50.000 years ago. But we don't. Humans are therefore the most likely explanation.”

Who killed the large mammals?

For decades, scientists have debated what is behind the extinction or rapid decline of large mammals over the past 50,000 years.
 
On one side are scientists who believe that rapid and severe fluctuations in the climate are the main explanation. For example, they believe that the woolly mammoth went extinct because the cold mammoth steppe largely disappeared.

On the opposite side are a group who believe that the prevalence of modern humans (Homo sapiens) is the explanation. They believe that our ancestors hunted the animals to such an extent that they either became completely extinct or were severely decimated. 
 
So far, some of the most important evidence in the debate has been fossils from the past 50,000 years. They show that the strong, selective extinction of large animals in time and space roughly matches the spread of modern humans around the globe. Therefore, the extinction of animals can hardly be linked to climate. Nevertheless, the debate continues.
 
The new study presents brand new data that sheds new light on the debate. By looking at the DNA of 139 large living mammals – species that have survived for the past 50,000 years without becoming extinct – the researchers can show that the populations of these animals have also declined over the period. This development seems to be linked to the spread of humans and not climate change.

DNA contains the long-term history of the species

In the past 20 years, there has been a revolution within DNA sequencing. Mapping entire genomes has become both easy and inexpensive, and as a result the DNA of many species has now been mapped.
 
The mapped genomes of species all over the globe are freely accessible on the internet – and this is the data that the research group from Aarhus University has utilized, explains assistant professor Juraj Bergman, the lead researcher behind the new study.
 
“We’ve collected data from 139 large living mammals and analysed the enormous amount of data. There are approximately 3 billion data points from each species, so it took a long time and a lot of computing power,” he says and continues:
 
"DNA contains a lot of information about the past. Most people know the tree of life, which shows where the different species developed and what common ancestors they have. We’ve done the same with mutations in the DNA. By grouping the mutations and building a family tree, we can estimate the size of the population of a specific species over time.
 
The larger the population of an animal, the more mutations will occur. It’s really a question of simple mathematics. Take elephants, for example. Every time an elephant is conceived, there’s a chance that a number of mutations will occur, and it will pass these on to subsequent generations. More births means more mutations.”

The large mammals

The 139 large mammals examined in the study are all species that exist today. They include elephants, bears, kangaroos and antelopes among others.
 
It is estimated that there are 6,399 species of mammals on the Earth, but the 139 extant megafauna were selected in this study to test how their populations changed over the past 40,000 to 50,000 years, when similar large animals went extinct.
 
The large mammals are also called megafauna – and are defined as animals weighing more than 44 kg when fully grown. Humans are therefore also considered megafauna. In the study, however, the researchers examined species weighing as little as 22 kg, so that all continents have been represented - except Antarctica.

Source: Journal of Mammalogy

Looking at the neutral parts of the DNA

However, the size of the elephant population is not the only thing that affects the number of mutations.
 
If the area in which elephants live suddenly dries up, the animals come under pressure – and this affects the composition of mutations. The same applies if two isolated groups of elephants suddenly meet and mix genes.
 
If not only the size of the population affects how many mutations occur, you would think that the results are rather uncertain. But this is not the case, explains Juraj Bergman.
 
"Only 10 per cent of mammalian genomes consist of active genes. Great selection pressure from the environment or migration will primarily lead to mutations in the genes. The remaining 90 percent, on the other hand, are more neutral,” he says, and continues:
 
"We have therefore examined mutations in those parts of the genome that are least susceptible to the environment. These parts primarily indicate something about the size of the population over time.”

The woolly mammoth is an atypical case

Much of the debate about what caused the large animals to either become extinct or decline has centered around the woolly mammoth. But this is a bad example because the majority of the megafauna species that went were associated with temperate or tropical climates, as Jens-Christian Svenning explains.
 
“The classic arguments for the climate as an explanatory model are based on the fact that the woolly mammoth and a number of other species associated with the so-called "mammoth steppe" disappeared when the ice melted and the habitat type disappeared,” he says, and continues:
 
"This is basically an unsatisfactory explanatory model, as the vast majority of the extinct megafauna species of the period did not live at all on the mammoth steppe. They lived in warm regions, such as temperate and tropical forests or savannahs. In our study, we also show a sharp decline during this period in populations of the many megafauna species that survived and come from all sorts of different regions and habitats.”
 
The final full stop in the debate has probably yet to be set, but Jens-Christian Svenning finds it difficult to see how the arguments for the climate as an explanation can continue.
 
"It seems inconceivable that it is possible to come up with a climate model that explains how, across all continents and groups of large animals, there have been extinctions and continuous decline since about 50,000 years ago. And how this selective loss of megafauna is unique for the past 66 million years, despite huge climate change
 
Given the rich data we now have, it’s also hard to deny that instead it is because humans spread across the globe from Africa and subsequently grew in population.”

About the research

Type of study:
Statistical modelling
External funding:
The study is supported by the Villum Foundation (grant 16549), the Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF173) and the EU Horizon 2020 programme.
Conflicts of interest:
The researchers declare that there are no conflicts of interest in connection with this research.

Reaching for the (invisible) stars

Uncovering the missing precursors of hydrogen-poor supernovae

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AUSTRIA

Visualization of a binary star experiencing mass transfer. 

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VISUALIZATION OF A BINARY STAR EXPERIENCING MASS TRANSFER.

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CREDIT: © YLVA GĂ–TBERG



Supernovae–stellar explosions as bright as an entire galaxy–have fascinated us since time immemorial. Yet, there are more hydrogen-poor supernovae than astrophysicists can explain. Now, a new Assistant Professor at the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA) has played a pivotal role in identifying the missing precursor star population. The results, now published in Science, go back to a conversation the involved professors had many years ago as junior scientists.

Some stars do not simply die down, but explode in a stellar blast that could outshine entire galaxies. These cosmic phenomena, called supernovae, spread light, elements, energy, and radiation in space and send galactic shock waves that could compress gas clouds and generate new stars. In other words, supernovae shape our universe. Among these, hydrogen-poor supernovae from exploding massive stars have long puzzled astrophysicists. The reason: scientists have not been able to put their finger on their precursor stars. It is almost as if these supernovae appeared out of nowhere.

“There are many more hydrogen-poor supernovae than our current models can explain. Either we can't detect the stars that mature on this path, or we must revise all our models,” says ISTA Assistant Professor Ylva Götberg. She pioneered this work together with Maria Drout, an Associated Faculty Member of the Dunlap Institute for Astronomy & Astrophysics, University of Toronto, Canada. “Single stars would typically explode as hydrogen-rich supernovae. Being hydrogen-poor indicates that the precursor star must have lost its thick hydrogen-rich envelope. This happens naturally in a third of all massive stars through envelope stripping by a binary companion star,” says Götberg. Now, Götberg and Drout combined their areas of expertise in theoretical modeling and observation to hunt down the missing stars. Their quest is successful: they document a first-of-its-kind star population that finally bridges a large knowledge gap and sheds light on the origin of hydrogen-poor supernovae.

Binary stars and envelope stripping
The stars that Götberg and Drout search for go in pairs: interlocked in a binary star system. Some binary systems are well-known to us Earthlings: these include the brightest star in our night sky, Sirius A, and its faint companion star Sirius B. The Sirius binary system is located only 8.6 light-years away from Earth–a stone’s throw in cosmic terms. This explains Sirius A’s observed brightness in our night sky.

Astrophysicists expect the missing stars to be initially formed from massive binary systems. In a binary system, the stars would orbit around one another until the more massive star’s thick, hydrogen-rich envelope expands. Eventually, the expanding envelope experiences a stronger gravitational pull to the companion star than to its own core. This causes a transfer of mass to begin, which eventually leads the entire hydrogen-rich envelope to be stripped off, leaving the hot and compact helium core exposed–more than 10 times hotter than the Sun’s surface. This is precisely the type of stars that Götberg and Drout are looking for. “Intermediate mass helium stars stripped through binary interaction are predicted to play important roles in astrophysics. Yet, they were not observed until now,” says Götberg. In fact, there is an important mass gap between the known classes of helium stars: the more massive Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars have more than 10 times the Sun’s mass, and the low-mass subdwarf stars could have around half the Sun’s mass. However, models have predicted the precursors of hydrogen-poor supernovae to lie between 2 and 8 solar masses following stripping.

Not just a needle in the haystack
Before Götberg and Drout’s study, only one star was found to fulfill the expected mass and composition criteria and was called “Quasi-WR” (or “Almost Wolf-Rayet”). “Yet, the stars that follow this path have such a long lifetime that many must be scattered all over the observable universe,” says Götberg. Did the scientists simply not “see” them? Thus, Götberg and Drout drew on their complementary expertise. With the help of UV photometry and optical spectroscopy, they identified a population of 25 stars that are consistent with the expectations for intermediate-mass helium stars. The stars are located in two well-studied neighboring galaxies, the Large and the Small Magellanic Clouds. “We showed that these stars were bluer than the stellar birthline, the bluest phase in a single star’s lifetime. Single stars mature by evolving towards the redder region of the spectrum. A star only shifts in the opposite direction if its outer layers are removed–something that is expected to be common in interacting binary stars and rare among single massive stars,” explains Götberg.

The scientists then verified their candidate star population using optical spectroscopy: they showed that the stars had strong spectral signatures of ionized helium. “Strong ionized helium lines tell us two important things: first, they confirm that the stars’ outermost layers are dominated by helium and, second, that their surface is very hot. This is what happens to stars left as an exposed, compact, helium-rich core following stripping,” says Götberg. Yet, both stars in a binary system contribute to the observed spectra. Thus, this technique allowed the researchers to classify their candidate population depending on which star contributed the most to the spectrum. “This work allowed us to find the missing population of intermediate-mass, stripped helium stars, the predicted progenitors of hydrogen-poor supernovae. These stars have always been there and there are probably many more out there. We must simply come up with ways to find them,” says Götberg. “Our work may be one of the first attempts, but there should be other ways possible.”

From graduate students at a conference to group leaders
The idea behind this project sparked in a discussion following a talk by Götberg at a conference that she and Drout attended during their graduate studies. Both scientists, then Early Career Researchers reaching for the stars, are now group leaders in their field. Götberg joined ISTA in September following her research at the Carnegie Observatories in Pasadena, California, as a NASA Hubble postdoctoral fellow. At ISTA, Götberg joins the Institute’s growing ranks of young group leaders in astrophysics and leads her own group focused on studying the binary interactions of stars.

This work, led by Maria R. Drout (Dunlap Institute for Astronomy & Astrophysics, University of Toronto, Canada) and Ylva Götberg (Institute of Science and Technology Austria, ISTA), was done in collaboration with The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution for Science (Pasadena, USA), and the Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics (Garching, Germany), among others.

   

A three-panel artist’s impression of a star being stripped by a binary companion. The third panel depicts the stage when these stars are observed in the present work. Stills from a movie.

Link to the video on the ESO website (multiple resolutions available for download): https://www.eso.org/public/videos/eso1230a/

CREDIT

© ESO/L. Calçada/M. Kornmesser/S.E. de Mink



Artist's impression of the evolution of a hot high-mass binary star. A movie.

Link to the video on the ESO website (multiple resolutions available for download): https://www.eso.org/public/videos/eso1230a/

CREDIT

© ESO/L. Calçada/M. Kornmesser/S.E. de Mink

Study authors at the Magellan telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. LTR: Bethany Ludwig, Anna O’Grady, and co-first authors Maria Drout and Ylva Götberg.

CREDIT

© Y. Götberg