Earthquake scenario for large German city

The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences helps with the question of what to expect in the event of a major earthquake near Cologne contributing to the government's "Risk Analysis in Civil Protection 2019"

GFZ GEOFORSCHUNGSZENTRUM POTSDAM, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE

Research News

IMAGE: CITY OF COLOGNE: PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE OF NO (LEFT), WEAK (MIDDLE), OR STRONG (RIGHT) DAMAGE PER BUILDING. OF THE ESTIMATED 170,000 RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS IN THE CITY, WE ESTIMATE THAT MORE... view more 

CREDIT: GFZ

What if there is a major earthquake near Cologne? This scenario is the subject of the "Risk Analysis in Civil Protection 2019", whose report was recently submitted to the German Bundestag (document: Bundestag Drucksache 19/23825). In the 125-page document, a group of experts has listed in detail, on the basis of extensive research work, what effects can be expected in the event of strong ground movements. What Germans usually only know from TV and media reports from other countries is the result of a modeling of a strong earthquake near the megacity of Cologne: ground shaking, damaged and destroyed houses, blocked roads, many injured and dead.

The German Research Center for Geosciences GFZ and its researchers played a central role in this analysis. The GFZ had the task of modeling the ground movements caused by such an earthquake and quantifying possible damage to the city's buildings. In particular, new geophysical models for the Lower Rhine Bay were developed to estimate the influence of the near-surface layers of the subsoil on ground movements. The researchers created a "building-by-building" model of the city in order to quantify the number and vulnerability of buildings that could be affected by the earthquake.

A massive earthquake in the Lower Rhine Bay with a magnitude of 6.5, as assumed for the underlying scenario, is quite possible. The GFZ expert for historical earthquakes, Gottfried Grünthal, says: "Statistical analyses show that an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.5 is to be expected in the Lower Rhine Bay approximately every hundred to three hundred years. A quake with a magnitude of 6.5 is to be expected approximately every 1000 to 3000 years.

Marco Pilz, scientist of the GFZ section earthquake hazard and dynamic risks, describes the fictitious initial situation: "At a depth of only a few kilometers, a tectonic fault ruptures in the Lower Rhine Bay. Only seconds later the shock waves reach the surface and the nearby city of Cologne. The ground starts to shake, buildings creak and sometimes collapse, streets are blocked by falling debris. Good knowledge of the local underground conditions has shown us that these conditions must be taken into account for an accurate modeling of the shaking".

Based on this, a building-related damage assessment suggests that major impacts can be expected in the city of Cologne. "Old buildings are likely to be particularly affected, so that the distribution of damage in the city area could be quite heterogeneous," adds Cecilia Nievas, a researcher from the same section. "Of the estimated 170,000 residential buildings in the city, more than 10,000 could suffer moderate to severe damage according to our calculations".

The further effects, for example on utilities, are more difficult to assess and require detailed investigations: How many hospitals are affected, what capacities remain for the treatment of the injured, and how well do emergency services reach affected regions? GFZ-researcher Pilz: "Although we at GFZ had contributed a large part to this risk analysis, what was remarkable about the cooperation was the involvement of many experts from federal and state authorities, the district government, the affected districts, the cities and their immediately affected services such as the fire department, THW, railroads and energy suppliers. Everyone has worked together, from the very top down to the local level".

Section head Fabrice Cotton adds: "It was a very productive exchange of information. The elaboration of such scenarios is important because they provide an effective tool for dialogue with the authorities and for understanding their needs when planning relief operations. Such exercises can also help to gain a complete overview of the entire seismic risk chain (from the physics of the earthquake to its effects) and to work at the interface between different scientific disciplines (e.g. here between seismology and civil engineering)".

Biden Stokes First Nomination Fight With Pick for Budget Chief


(Bloomberg) -- President-elect Joe Biden is setting up his first confirmation fight with Senate Republicans by choosing Neera Tanden -- a sometimes-acerbic Democratic policy wonk with an often-partisan Twitter feed -- to serve as his White House budget chief.

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 26: Neera Tanden, president, Center for American Progress, speaks at the “Impeachment Now!” rally in support of an immediate inquiry towards articles of impeachment against U.S. President Donald Trump on the grounds of the U.S. Capital on September 26, 2019in Washington, DC. 

(Photo by Paul Morigi/Getty Images for MoveOn Political Action)

Tanden, the tough-minded head of an influential Democratic think tank, is a veteran Hillary Clinton aide seasoned in Washington battles over Obamacare and Donald Trump’s presidency. Her selection Monday as Biden’s nominee to lead the Office of Management and Budget drew swift objections from GOP senators who could block her confirmation, with Senator John Cornyn of Texas calling her selection “radioactive.”

“Most Republicans are open to any reasonable nominee by the incoming administration,” he told reporters on Capitol Hill. “We’re prepared to try to work with the vice president once the vote’s certified, but she certainly strikes me as his worst nominee so far.”

Republicans have so far refrained from voicing outright opposition to Biden’s other intended nominees, including former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary, or Antony Blinken for secretary of State. Yet they are drawing the line with Tanden, 50, who will be formally introduced to the public along with other economic team nominees by Biden during an event Tuesday in Wilmington, Delaware.

Tanden was one of six nominees Biden announced Monday for his economic team, including Yellen, Cecilia Rouse to be chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Jared Bernstein and Heather Boushey to be members of the CEA, and Adewale Adeyemo for deputy Treasury secretary. He has also picked Brian Deese to lead the National Economic Council in the White House, according to people familiar with his plans.

Read More: Biden Fills Yellen-Led Economy Team, Risks Clash on Budget Chief

Tanden has been an outspoken backer of Democrats on Twitter and cable news channels, a role that is helping fuel the vehemence of Republican opposition. She tweeted “Love it,” when Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was tagged “Moscow Mitch” for blocking legislation to protect elections from foreign interference and criticized Republican Senator Susan Collins for a “pathetically bad faith argument” in supporting confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

The Biden transition team recommended Tanden knowing that she would provoke Republican lawmakers, said a person familiar with the matter, but didn’t want to shrink from nominating someone they considered highly qualified.

The team plans to promote her personal story as part of their pitch that Biden’s economic advisers will understand the problems of working-class and poor people and work to reduce wealth inequality. The daughter of Indian immigrants, she was raised by a single mother who for part of Tanden’s childhood depended on federal housing assistance and food stamps.

Tanden didn’t return phone or email messages. Like other Biden transition officials, she referred to her mother’s time on public assistance in a statement she posted on Twitter.

“After my parents were divorced when I was young, my mother relied on public food and housing programs to get by,” Tanden said. “Now, I’m being nominated to help ensure those programs are secure, and ensure families like mine can live with dignity. I am beyond honored.”

The OMB director is responsible for overseeing the president’s annual budget and usually is one of the administration’s main negotiators with Congress on spending legislation. OMB also has extensive authority over federal agencies’ regulatory power, reviewing proposed rule changes on behalf of the White House.

Tanden’s nomination is a departure in a post that, especially early in a new administration, has often gone to people who spent years enmeshed in the intricacies of the congressional budgeting process such as Leon Panetta, who led the House Budget Committee for four years before Bill Clinton nominated him, and Peter Orszag, who was director of the Congressional Budget Office when chosen by Barack Obama.

Yet Tanden brings a firm grounding in health policy at a time when the expansions in coverage Biden seeks may depend on her undoing federal regulations that Trump used to undercut Obamacare. Her years as the director of the Center for American Progress think tank, founded during the George W. Bush administration to promote liberal policies, also have placed her in the middle of the party’s debates.

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, likely to be chairman of the Budget Committee that would have to first confirm Tanden, predicted an “uphill” battle.

“We’ll cross that bridge when we get there,” he said. “She had a lot to say. Going to be a long hearing.”

Collins, whose support is key to getting 51 votes in a GOP Senate, said, “I do not know her much about her but I’ve heard that she’s a very prolific user of Twitter,” and declined further comment.

Tanden wouldn’t be the first political choice for the job. Trump selected Republican Congressman Mick Mulvaney, a founding member of the conservative Freedom Caucus and a follower of the Tea Party movement as his budget director, setting a precedent for the job to go to a fierce partisan warrior.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York scoffed at “overblown complaints” about Tanden’s past criticisms of Republicans.

“Honestly, the hypocrisy is astounding,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. “If Republicans are concerned about criticism on Twitter, their complaints are better directed at President Trump.”
Clinton Ties

Tanden’s long connection with the Clinton family, stretching back to Bill Clinton’s White House and including roles as a policy adviser in Hillary Clinton’s 2000 Senate campaign and 2008 presidential campaign, also have led to tangles with progressives in the party.

Senator Bernie Sanders, a former Democratic presidential candidate, sent a scathing letter in 2019 to the board of the Center for American Progress after a publication associated with the organization produced a video that went viral mocking Sanders for his status as a millionaire despite vilifying the wealthy in his campaigns. He accused Tanden of “maligning my staff and supporters and belittling progressive ideas.”

Sanders press representatives didn’t respond to a request for comment. A spokeswoman for Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, another progressive former presidential candidate, said she would back Tanden’s confirmation. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, who also ran in this year’s Democratic presidential contest, extolled her in a Twitter post as “brilliant and laser-focused on making our country a fairer place for all.”

Tanden quickly moved past the bad blood in the 2008 Democratic primaries to shift from Clinton’s campaign to a role as chief domestic policy adviser to Obama in the general election. She was closely involved in the struggle for Obamacare as a senior adviser for health reform at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Biden’s incoming White House chief of staff, Ron Klain was closely involved in the Center for American Progress, including holding a position on the board of its affiliated action fund, and developed a high opinion of Tanden, said a person familiar with the transition.

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

Calgary hospitals told to conserve oxygen, 

but doctors fear request is a red flag

© Submitted by AHS/Leah Hennel 

Staff on the ICU unit at Peter Lougheed Centre in Calgary are pictured in this file photo from April 17, 2020.

Alberta Health Services says a memo urging Calgary hospital staff to reduce use of oxygen is a proactive response to an anticipated increase in demand as COVID-19 hospitalizations climb.

But some doctors say the request is concerning and not something they've seen before.

"Due to the limitations of the bulk oxygen systems at some adult acute care sites in Calgary and the expected increase in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we need to reduce the demand on the bulk oxygen system," wrote Calgary zone respiratory program leads Carmella Steinke and Dr. Jonathan Gaudet on Friday.


Bulk oxygen refers to how oxygen is stored in a large volume in hospitals in liquid form. It is delivered to each patient's room by pipes — almost like tap water.

"Clinical measures require everyone to engage in oxygen conservation measures immediately."

The memo advises doctors and nurses to assess patients to see if their oxygen use can be reduced and to "target the lowest tolerable" levels of oxygen saturation in a patient's blood.

It said the sites most affected are Foothills Medical Centre, Rockyview General Hospital, and Peter Lougheed Centre, all of which currently have COVID-19 outbreaks.

Dr. David Zygun, Edmonton zone medical director for Alberta Health Services, said during Monday's provincial COVID-19 update that the memo was part of an "anticipatory" plan to make sure there are ample resources.

An AHS spokesperson told CBC that Calgary has an adequate supply of oxygen to meet patient's needs, and that any limitation is not in the oxygen supply itself but instead in the capacity of the pipes that deliver oxygen from a centralized source.

"The O2 monitoring and conservation memo circulated was to remind clinicians to provide oxygen therapy in an evidence-informed, responsible manner and to be proactive in safeguarding the resource recognizing that we anticipate a potential increase in patients in need of oxygen therapy," AHS said.

Infrastructure upgrades on the system are underway to be completed by June next year, and AHS said in the meantime it's working with health-care providers to appropriately conserve oxygen resources.
'Restrictions are alarming'

However, Dr. Kerri Johannson said the memo was a first in her 15 years working as a pulmonary medicine specialist in Calgary.

"These restrictions are alarming in that we've never been asked to ration or limit oxygen in an acute care setting before," said Johannson, who is also a clinical assistant professor in the departments of medicine and community health sciences at the University of Calgary.

Johannson said the measures the memo calls for likely don't pose any harm to patients, but they do show strain on the health-care system.

"Oxygen is fundamental supportive care for many hospitalized patients and certainly in patients with COVID-19. So I think while these current measures seem reasonable and I don't think they're compromising patient safety, they raise a major red flag in that we don't know what's going to be rationed next. We've heard of doubling up of ICU beds happening in Edmonton," she said.

"I think what this signifies to me is just the fact that we plan for a certain volume of health-care delivery and in usual times, this would not be a problem."

NDP Opposition health critic David Shepherd told the house on Monday that the memo indicates a reason for concern.

"Even as our hospitals are packed full of the critically sick, AHS is running short on oxygen," he said.

Health Minister Tyler Shandro responded saying that was not the case, and that the memo represented a contingency plan and something that happens "often throughout any given year."

On Monday there were 453 people in hospital and 96 in intensive care in the province.

Dr. Joe Vipond, an emergency doctor and clinical assistant professor at the University of Calgary, said with the number of patients in hospital doubling every few weeks, the system will hit pinch points.

"I am concerned because I don't know what the future holds," he said.

GM sent back to drawing board after most South Korea union members reject labour deal

By Heekyong Yang 


 

© Reuters/KIM HONG-JI 

The logo of GM Korea is seen at an its plant in Incheon

SEOUL (Reuters) - General Motors Co, which has long struggled with labour relations in South Korea, will have to renegotiate a preliminary labour deal after a majority of union members voted against it.

Only about 45% of members were in favour of an agreement reached with union negotiators last week for each member to receive a lump sum payment of 4 million won ($3,615) by early 2021, a union official said on Tuesday.

The union stepped up demands this year as wages have been frozen since 2018, when the U.S. automaker received a state-backed rescue package to stay in the country.

GM has rejected employee demands to raise the retirement age by five years to 65 and to build more vehicles at one of its South Korean plants.

The two sides have had 24 rounds of negotiations since July and GM's South Korean workers staged two four-hour strikes daily over 14 days last month in protest.

That has cost the automaker about 25,000 vehicles in lost production, according to an official at GM's Korea unit, which comes on top of some 60,000 units lost earlier in the year due to the spread of the novel coronavirus.

This month, the automaker issued its strongest warning yet that the unrest could in the long term drive it out of the country.

(Reporting by Heekyong Yang; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

Nike, Coca-Cola, and Apple reportedly lobbied to weaken a bill aimed at preventing them from manufacturing products in China using forced Uighur labor

tsonnemaker@businessinsider.com (Tyler Sonnemaker) 

© REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson 

Hong Kong protesters rally in support of Xinjiang Uighurs' human rights in Hong Kong, China, December 22, 2019. 

Nike, Coca-Cola, and Apple were among the companies that lobbied to weaken a bill aimed at banning US firms from relying on Chinese forced labor, The New York Times reported Sunday.

HSBC, American Apparel, and several industry groups also lobbied on the bill, which would ban many goods imported from Xinjiang unless companies prove they weren't made with forced labor.

The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, as it's called, passed the House in September by a 406-3 margin, and according to The New York Times, has the support needed to pass the Senate.

Various reports have linked Nike, Coca-Cola, Apple, and other major US companies to suppliers in the region, where China has been accused of detaining and violating the rights of as many as one million Uighurs and other Muslim minorities.

Nike, Coca-Cola, and Apple all sought to weaken proposed legislation aimed at barring US companies from relying on the forced labor of Uighurs and other Muslim minorities in China's Xinjiang region, The New York Times reported Sunday.

The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act would ban US companies from importing a wide range of goods made in Xinjiang, where China has been accused of mass human rights violations unless companies can prove that the goods weren't made using forced labor.

The bill passed the House in September by a margin of 406 to 3, and aides told The Times that it has enough support to pass the Senate.

Other companies and trade groups, including HSBC, American Apparel, the National Retail Federation, and the US Chamber of Commerce also lobbied on the bill, according to lobbying disclosure forms.

None of the above organizations responded to a request for comment on this story.

Apple took issue with the claim that it tried to water down the bill in a statement to The Times.

Nike's global communications director, Greg Rossiter, told The Times that the company "did not lobby against" the bill but rather had "constructive discussions" with congressional staffers.

Coca-Cola told The Times in a statement that it "strictly prohibits any type of forced labor in our supply chain."

The US Chamber of Commerce declined to comment to The Times. It instead referred it to a letter it and other groups wrote in November, saying they supported addressing forced labor.

Human rights groups, media reports, and other independent researchers have extensively documented China's mass surveillance and detainment of as many as one million Uighurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, and other Muslim minority groups in internment camps, where reports allege they are subjected to torture, sexual abuse, and forced labor for little or no pay.

In March, a report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), which estimated that 80,000 Uighurs have been forcibly relocated to factories across China, found evidence of forced Uighur labor at four separate factories in Apple's supply chain as well as the supply chains of Nike, BMW, and Amazon.

Also in March, the Congressional-Executive Commission said in a report that Nike and Coca-Cola, as well as major brands such as Adidas, Campbell Soup, Costco, H&M, Kraft Heinz, Patagonia, and Tommy Hilfiger, were suspected of relying on forced Chinese labor.

Nike claimed in a March statement that it "does not source products" from Xinjiang and that it "confirmed with our contract suppliers that they are not using textiles or spun yarn from the region." Nike also told The Times that a factory in Qingdao that makes its shoes stopped using Uighur labor in 2019, though the ASPI report, citing Chinese state media, found that 800 Uighurs were still forced to work there as of November 2019.

Coca-Cola told The Times that a COFCO Tunhe plant in Xinjiang — that The Wall Street Journal reported last year was using forced labor — passed an independent audit in 2019 as well.

Amid growing bipartisan support for punishing China over the alleged human rights abuses, as well as holding companies accountable for exploiting it, US lawmakers introduced the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act earlier this year. The bill could force companies — especially those with substantial supply chains in China, such as Nike, Coca-Cola, and Apple — to make major changes to how and where they manufacture their products, and is viewed as having more teeth than current laws.

In response, many companies have sought to weaken the disclosure and compliance requirements proposed in the bill.

The Washington Post reported earlier this month that Apple had lobbied against the bill, and according to The Times, the tech giant pushed for longer deadlines to reach compliance, less disclosure to the general public, and putting more onus on the US government to assess whether Chinese entities are complicit in the oppression of Muslims.

Apple, Nike, and Coca-Cola have over the years been accused by human rights groups of a variety of labor abuses and worker exploitation, particularly in China. They have also made various pledges and taken some steps to address that criticism.

Monitoring that, however, has become difficult. Five major auditing groups hired by Western firms told The Wall Street Journal in September that they are no longer carrying out supply chain inspections in China because restrictions imposed by government officials have made it too difficult to effectively and independently evaluate working conditions in the country.
Read the original article on Business Insider

Biden urged to pick California attorney who fought sweatshop slavery as new head of Labor Department

cdavis@insider.com (Charles Davis) 

California Labor Secretary Julie Su is photographed at her home in Cerritos, California. Katie Falkenberg/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

California labor activists are asking President-elect Joe Biden to select Julie Su as his Secretary of Labor.

Su, once dubbed the "bane of deadbeat employers," has served as California's Labor Secretary since 2019.

Previously, Su served as the state's labor commissioner. She also co-founded the group Sweatshop Watch.

"Thinking about Julie Su as Secretary of Labor is almost a physical sense of relief," one source in the labor movement told Business Insider.

Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Labor organizers in Southern California are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to pick a progressive, hometown hero for Labor Secretary, arguing that the state's top labor official — an anti-sweatshop campaigner dubbed the "bane of the deadbeat employer" — is supremely qualified to protect workers' rights during the pandemic.


Julie Su has served in statewide office since 2011, when former Gov. Jerry Brown picked her to lead the state's enforcement of labor laws. Before that, at the age of 26, she represented dozens of undocumented Thai workers who were effectively enslaved at a garment factory outside Los Angeles, a landmark case that prompted federal and state efforts to combat human trafficking; that work was cited by the MacArthur Foundation, which awarded her its "genius" award in 2001.

As labor commissioner, Su turned the state's under-resourced team of worker advocates into "what could be the most aggressive and effective state labor law enforcement division in the country," according to a 2013 report from In These Times, a progressive magazine.

Under Su's reign, California sought the largest-ever judgment against an employer in state history, assessing almost $12 million in citations against a construction company. "[E]mployers who steal from workers will end up paying for it," she said at the time.

In 2019, Gov. Gavin Newsom promoted her to Secretary of Labor, a role that has seen her oversee worker safety and unemployment checks amid a pandemic and recession — experience her advocates believe has well prepared her to do the same on a larger scale.

"Workers, especially workers of color, are hurting across the country," Marissa Nuncio, director of the Garment Worker Center in Los Angeles, told Business Insider. "They need and deserve someone with a demonstrated record of leadership and expertise in fighting for working individuals and families, and Julie's record is exemplary."

 Julie Su received a 2001 "genius" grant from the MacAuthur Foundation for her efforts to protect undocumented immigrant workers. 

Carlos Chavez/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

As Bloomberg Law reported last week, Su's odds for a cabinet pick have been aided by a split in union support among contenders who are better known on the national stage, such as US Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Andy Levin. "I think she's very, very viable," Los Angeles County Federation of Labor President Ron Herrera, a supporter, told Bloomberg. "She's really been a warrior for us."

But, the outlet noted, a lack of public support from organized labor has also been one factor hindering Su's candidacy.

A letter sent to the president-elect on Sunday aims to address that gap.

"It is a critical time for women's leadership and we need a strong woman as US Secretary of Labor, especially a woman of color who understand what it's like to grow up in an immigrant household," states the letter signed by Dolores Huerta, the famed farm worker organizer, and the leaders of groups such as the Koreatown Immigrant Workers Alliance, the Pilipino Workers Center of Southern California, and the Los Angeles Alliance for a New Economy.

"She fully enforced the rights of farm workers, janitors, and domestic workers," the letter says. "In short, Su has been at the forefront of some of the most innovative policies and enforcement strategies in our state's history.

A senior staffer at a national labor organization, requesting anonymity to speak freely, said a Su cabinet post would be seen as a big win for the labor movement.

"Thinking about Julie Su as Secretary of Labor is almost a physical sense of relief," the source told Business Insider. She's spent years leading enforcement in the world's fifth-largest economy and before that fought for workers' rights as an activist exposing labor conditions in the garment industry.

"She is widely respected as a labor rights and civil rights attorney, so she truly 'speaks the language' of workers' issues," the source said, noting she is also fluent in both Spanish and Mandarin.

Su "will walk in that door fully capable, ready to work, and without any serious shadows of past transactional relationships or controversies," they added.

 

Robot probes the Red Sea's carbon storage system

KING ABDULLAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (KAUST)

Research News 

IMAGE: BY STUDYING THE FATE OF ORGANIC CARBON IN THE RED SEA, KAUST RESEARCHERS HOPE TO REFINE MODELS THAT PREDICT THE CARBON SINK CAPACITY OF THE WORLD'S OCEANS IN THE FUTURE.... view more 

CREDIT: © SUSANN ROSSBACH

Warming waters and oxygen depletion in the Red Sea could slow the flow of organic carbon from the surface into the deep ocean where it can be stored, out of reach of the atmosphere. A KAUST team has used an underwater robot to investigate the little-studied mesopelagic, or "twilight," zone, at depths of between 100 and 1000 meters.

The oceans absorb billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere each year that either dissolves or is transformed into organic carbon by plants and phytoplankton in the sunlit shallows (0 - 100m). Most of this organic carbon is converted back into CO2 by microorganisms as it falls through the mesopelagic zone, but some of it eventually sinks into the deep ocean, where it can remain for centuries.

Understanding what controls the fate of organic carbon at different depths could help scientists predict how the oceans will absorb and store atmospheric CO2 in the future. Malika Kheireddine and her team used an underwater robot equipped with bio-optical sensors to measure particulate organic carbon (POC) variations between the surface and the bottom of the mesopelagic zone in the northern Red Sea, where sea temperatures are rising particularly fast. "The Red Sea offers unrivalled opportunities as a natural laboratory for studying the impact of climate change on the fate of organic carbon," says Kheireddine.

Throughout 2016, the device also measured water temperature, salinity, density and oxygen concentrations. "Our observations allowed us to estimate the rates at which POC is converted back into CO2 by marine microorganisms," explains Giorgio Dall'Olmo, a co-author from the UK National Centre for Earth Observation, "and how these microorganisms are affected by temperature and oxygen levels."

In the Red Sea's warm and oxygen-starved waters, the conversion occurred mainly in the shallowest, most productive layer of the mesopelagic zone; only 10 percent of POC sank below 350 meters. "The conversion rates could be expressed as a function of temperature and oxygen concentration," adds Kheireddine, "which could help us predict how climate change will affect these rates in the future."

The team was surprised to find that more than 85 percent of POC was broken down within a few days of entering the mesopelagic zone, whereas the rest drifted for weeks to months before being consumed. There are multiple drivers of organic carbon transfer and transformation in tropical seas.

"Underwater gliders in the Red Sea are collecting continuous data that could reveal the effects of physical processes, such as eddies and coastal currents, on these biogeochemical processes," says group leader Burton Jones, a marine scientist at KAUST.

"The fate of organic carbon in the oceans affects the global climate," says Kheireddine. "Our findings will help refine models showing whether the amount of carbon sinking in the ocean is increasing or decreasing." The deeper organic carbon sinks before it is converted to CO2, the longer it is likely to remain there, locked away from the atmosphere.

###

Men tuning into Insta-spiration

Clothed or bare-chested, is influence growing?

FLINDERS UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: FLINDERS UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR OF PSYCHOLOGY MARIKA TIGGEMANN. view more 

CREDIT: FLINDERS UNIVERSITY

New research confirms men and teens are affected by Instagram influencers who set global benchmarks for ideal body shape, fashion and even facial trends.

While perhaps not as focused on 'thinness' as women appear to be from female influencers, the Flinders University study confirms males are responding to the body image and fitness messages shared by Instagram leaders, some with millions of followers.

This may mean men are less exposed to some of the negatives of social media but confirms the influence of fitspiration ('fitspo') and body image on this online platform, says psychology Professor Marika Tiggemann and Isabella Anderberg in a new paper in Body Image.

"Despite the rise in use of social media, there haven't been many studies into its effect on men and our new study found there are similarities and differences between women and men," says lead author Professor Tiggemann, who has extensively researched the power of social media images on body image, eating and other behaviours in women.

"While participants all had some vulnerable responses to some types of social media imagery, results typically obtained for women cannot simply be generalised to men."

Co-author Isabella Anderberg says the new study shows there is a high level of response to fitspiration goals via Instagram influencers.

"It is interesting that both the fitspiration and fashion images made participants feel more inspired to exercise, and we have certainly seen a rise in men following international fitspo and professional sporting hero influencers."

The Flinders research studied responses from 300 US adult men aged 18-30 who were randomly shown images of bare-chested (fitspiration), clothed (fashion) and control images, similar to those posted by Instagram influencers.

It was found that exposure to bare-chested and muscular images resulted in significantly lower body satisfaction relative to viewing clothed fashion images or scenery images.

"It's important to expand this research, including on the 'Brotox' facial ideals set in social media which is leading to more men reportedly using skin products and even cosmetic fillers and botox to keep up to influencers," Ms Anderberg adds.

###

The new paper, Muscles and bare chests on Instagram: The effect of Influencers' fashion and fitspiration images on men's body image (2020) by Marika Tiggemann and Isabella Anderberg has been published in Body Image DOI: 10.1016/j.bodyim.2020.10.001 Volume 35, December 2020, Pages 237-244

 

Area burned by severe fire increased 8-fold in western US over past four decades

AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION

Research News

 

WASHINGTON--The number of wildfires and the amount of land they consume in the western U.S. has substantially increased since the 1980s, a trend often attributed to ongoing climate change. Now, new research finds fires are not only becoming more common in the western U.S. but the area burned at high severity is also increasing, a trend that may lead to long-term forest loss.

The new findings show warmer temperatures and drier conditions are driving an eight-fold increase in annual area burned by high severity fire across western forests from 1985-2017. In total, annual area burned by high severity wildfires -- defined as those that kill more than 95% of trees -- increased by more than 450,000 acres.

"As more area burns at high severity, the likelihood of conversion to different forest types or even to non-forest increases," said Sean Parks, a research ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station and lead author of the new study. "At the same time, the post-fire climate is making it increasingly difficult for seedlings to establish and survive, further reducing the potential for forests to return to their pre-fire condition."

Parks will present the results Wednesday, 9 December at AGU's Fall Meeting 2020. The findings are also published in AGU's journal Geophysical Research Letters, which publishes high-impact, short-format reports with immediate implications spanning all Earth and space sciences.

Scientists have known for years that wildfires are on the rise in the western U.S., coincident with recent long-term droughts and warmer temperatures. Many western states, especially parts of California, have undergone several multi-year droughts over the past four decades, a fact scientists attribute to human-caused changes to the climate. However, it is less clear how fire severity has changed over the past half century.

In the new study, Parks and John Abatzoglou, an atmospheric scientist at the University of California Merced, used satellite imagery to assess fire severity in four large regions in the western U.S. from 1985 to 2017. Rather than analyze the amount of area burned each year, they instead looked at the area burned at high severity, which is more likely to adversely impact forest ecosystems and human safety and infrastructure.

"The amount of area burned during a given year is an imperfect metric for assessing fire impacts," Parks said. "There was a substantial amount of fire in the western U.S. prior to Euro-American colonization, but that fire did not likely have the extreme effects that we're seeing now."

Beneficial fires

Wildfires were historically a common component of many forest ecosystems, especially in dry areas that receive little or sporadic rainfall. Fire was such a common occurrence in some regions that many tree species - especially certain species of pine - evolved traits that allow them to not only survive fires but to facilitate their ignition as well.

In the mountainous slopes of California, for example, ponderosa pines, sugar pines and giant sequoias sport thick bark that keeps the living tissue underneath insulated from extreme heat. Some tree species also drop the branches growing closest to the ground, which might otherwise allow fires to climb up into the canopy.

Species like jack pines are so dependent on fire that their seeds are unable to effectively disperse until a passing blaze melts the resinous coating surrounding their cones. And the slender, needle-like leaves of pines dry out more quickly than the broad leaves of deciduous hardwoods, making them excellent kindling.

The catch is these trees evolved to cope with frequent, low-intensity fires. During a severe fire, even the most well-adapted plants can succumb to mortality. If too many trees die, forest regrowth can be impeded by the lack of viable seeds.

"Forest burned at high severity bears the biggest ecological impacts from a fire," said Philip Dennison, a fire scientist at the University of Utah who was unaffiliated with the study. "These are the areas that are going to take the longest to recover, and in many places that recovery has been put into question due to higher temperatures and drought."

A 2019 study authored by Parks found up to 15% of intermountain forests in the western U.S. are at risk of disappearing. In dry regions, such as the southwestern U.S., that number increases to 30% when assuming fires burn under extreme weather.

As western North America continues to reel from the vice-like grip of droughts and increasing temperatures, scientists expect severe fires will become even more common.

"One take home message is that fire severity is elevated in warmer and drier years in the western U.S., and we expect that climate change will result in even warmer and drier years in the future," Parks said.

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Notes for Journalists

This research study is freely available through December 31. Download a PDF copy of the paper here. Neither the paper nor this press release is under embargo.

Sean Parks will present the results of this work at AGU Fall Meeting 2020. The oral presentation has been pre-recorded and will be available online starting 1 December to members of the press who are registered for Fall Meeting 2020. Register for the meeting here. A live Q&A with Parks will take place on Wednesday, 9 December during a scientific session on ecosystem resilience.

Session information: B044 - Fire-Vegetation Interactions and Ecosystem Resilience in a Warmer World I, Wednesday, 9 December, 23:30-00:30 PT.

Presentation abstract: B044-01 - Observed and Expected Increases in Fire Severity Weaken Stabilizing Feedbacks that Promote Forest Resilience

For information about Fall Meeting 2020, including the schedule of press events, visit the Fall Meeting 2020 Media Center.

Neither the paper, presentation, nor this press release is under embargo.

This press release and accompanying images are available online at: https://news.agu.org/press-release/area-burned-by-severe-fire-has-increased-8-fold-in-western-u-s-forests-over-past-four-decades/

Area burned by severe fire has increased 8-fold in western U.S. forests over past four decades

AGU press contact: Lauren Lipuma, +1 (202) 777-7396, news@agu.org

Contact information for the researchers: Sean A. Parks, U.S. Forest Service, sean.parks@usda.gov (U.S. Mountain Time, UTC-7)

 

Report assesses promises and pitfalls of private investment in conservation

Leading scientists, lawyers, investors and economists explore how privately financed conservation projects can generate both financial returns and positive conservation outcomes

ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA

Research News

 

IMAGE: A SHADE-GROWN COFFEE FARM NEAR THE TOWN OF JARDÍN IN THE ANTIOQUIA DEPARTMENT OF COLOMBIA. COFFEE BEANS GROWN UNDER TREES ARE HIGHER QUALITY, SUPPORTING THE LIVELIHOODS OF FARMERS AND THEIR... view more 

CREDIT: AMANDA RODEWALD

The Ecological Society of America (ESA) today released a report entitled "Innovative Finance for Conservation: Roles for Ecologists and Practitioners" that offers guidelines for developing standardized, ethical and effective conservation finance projects.

Public and philanthropic sources currently supply most of the funds for protecting and conserving species and ecosystems. However, the private sector is now driving demand for market-based mechanisms that support conservation projects with positive environmental, social and financial returns. Examples of projects that can support this triple bottom line include green infrastructure for stormwater management, clean transport projects and sustainable production of food and fiber products.

"The reality is that public and philanthropic funds are insufficient to meet the challenge to conserve the world's biodiversity," said Garvin Professor and Senior Director of Conservation Science at Cornell University Amanda Rodewald, the report's lead author. "Private investments represent a new path forward both because of their enormous growth potential and their ability to be flexibly adapted to a wide variety of social and ecological contexts."

Today's report examines the legal, social and ethical issues associated with innovative conservation finance and offers resources and guidelines for increasing private capital commitments to conservation. It also identifies priority actions that individuals and organizations working in conservation finance will need to adopt in order to "mainstream" the field.

One priority action is to standardize the metrics that allow practitioners to compare and evaluate projects. While the financial services and investment sectors regularly employ standardized indicators of financial risk and return, it is more difficult to apply such indicators to conservation projects. Under certain conservation financing models, for example, returns on investment are partially determined by whether the conservation project is successful - but "success" can be difficult to quantify when it is defined by complex social or environmental changes, such as whether a bird species is more or less at risk of going extinct as a result of a conservation project.

Another priority action is to establish safeguards and ethical standards for involving local stakeholders, including Indigenous communities. In the absence of robust accountability and transparency measures, mobilizing private capital in conservation can result in unjust land grabs or in unscrupulous investments where profits flow disproportionately to wealthy or powerful figures. The report offers guidelines for ensuring that conservation financing improves the prosperity of local communities.

According to co-author Peter Arcese, a professor at the University of British Columbia and adjunct professor at Cornell University, opportunities in conservation finance are growing for patient investors who are interested in generating modest returns while simultaneously supporting sustainable development.

"Almost all landowners I've worked with in Africa and North and South America share a deep desire to maintain or enhance the environmental, cultural and aesthetic values of the ecosystems their land supports," Arcese said. "By creating markets and stimulating investment in climate mitigation, and forest, water and biodiversity conservation projects, we can offer landowners alternative income sources and measurably slow habitat loss and degradation."

Rodewald sees a similar landscape of interest and opportunity. "No matter the system - be it a coffee plantation in the Andes, a timber harvest in the Pacific Northwest, or a farm in the Great Plains - I am reminded again and again that conservation is most successful when we safeguard the health and well-being of local communities. Private investments can be powerful tools to do just that," said Rodewald.

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The report is No. 22 in a series of reports published by the Ecological Society of America that use commonly understood language to present the consensus of a panel of scientific experts on issues related to the environment. Previous reports in the series are available at https://www.esa.org/publications/issues/.

CAPTION

Ancient Haida mortuary totems at SGang Gwaay llnagaay, Haida Gwaii, which are protected under the Constitution of the Haida Nation and commemorated by the Government of Canada as a National Historic Site. In 2009, a reconciliation protocol established co-management of the islands by the Haida Nation and the Province of British Columbia. The Haida Nation subsequently purchased a large forest tenure and established a Nation-owned and operated logging company that follows strict environmental and social standards for responsible forest management. The investment was supported by funding from Coast Funds (www.coastfunds.ca), an Indigenous-focused conservation finance organization that invests in First Nations-led sustainable business development initiatives.

CREDIT

Brodie Guy

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Report:

Amanda Rodewald, et al. 2020. "Innovative Finance for Conservation: Roles for Ecologists and Practitioners." https://www.esa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ESA_IssuesInEcology_no.22.pdf 

Author contacts:

Amanda Rodewald (arodewald@cornell.edu">arodewald@cornell.edu)

Peter Arcese (peter.arcese@ubc.ca">peter.arcese@ubc.ca)

Authors:

• Amanda D. Rodewald, Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY; Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
• Peter Arcese, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC; Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
• Janis Sarra, Peter A. Allard School of Law, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC
• John Tobin-de la Puente, Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; Cornell Institute for Public Affairs, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
• Jeffrey Sayer, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC
• Frank Hawkins, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Washington, DC
• Tara Martin, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC
• Brodie Guy, Coast Funds, Vancouver, BC
• Kelly Wachowicz, Catch Together, Chatham, MA

 

CAPTION

Cover of Issues in Ecology No. 22. Innovative Finance For Conservation: Roles For Ecologists and Practitioners.

Funding:

Production of Issues in Ecology 22 was funded by a Purchase Order Agreement (PO#1063592) between ESA and the Charles Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University. Other funding and services were provided by the Peter Wall Institute for Advanced Studies at the University of British Columbia (UBC), the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, the UBC Faculty of Forestry, and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, Canada.

 

The Ecological Society of America, founded in 1915, is the world's largest community of professional ecologists and a trusted source of ecological knowledge, committed to advancing the understanding of life on Earth. The 9,000 member Society publishes five journals and a membership bulletin and broadly shares ecological information through policy, media outreach, and education initiatives. The Society's Annual Meeting attracts 4,000 attendees and features the most recent advances in ecological science. Visit the ESA website at https://www.esa.org.

Issues in Ecology is an official publication of ESA, using commonly-understood language to report the consensus of a panel of scientific experts on issues related to the environment. Issues in Ecology aims to build public understanding of the importance of the products and services provided by the environment to society. The text for every Issues in Ecology is reviewed for technical content by external expert reviewers. https://www.esa.org/publications/issues/

 

Link found between drought and HIV among women in less-developed countries

New research explores the consequences of drought and lack of environmental resources on women in less-developed countries and shows the direct and indirect associations to women's percentage of HIV.

LEHIGH UNIVERSITY

Research News

Current research predicts that by 2025, 1,800 million people are expected to be living in countries or regions with insufficient water resources, and models show increased severity of droughts in years to come. Food insecurity and other consequences of droughts will become intensified, influencing disease vulnerabilities among populations in less-developed countries. New research from Kelly Austin, associate professor of sociology at Lehigh University, explores how droughts shape gender inequalities in the HIV burden, indirectly through increased food insecurity.

The paper, "Drying Climates and Gender Suffering: Links Between Drought, Food Insecurity, and Women's HIV in Less-Developed Countries," is published in Social Indicators Research.

This study builds on previous attempts to explain women's disproportionate share of global HIV cases through biological, cultural and socioeconomic inequalities by bringing the environment and climate-related disasters into the discussion.

"While many infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS do not have a direct link to the environment in their transmission patterns or vectors, disasters such as drought can still have a significant influence on the social conditions that shape and enhance vulnerabilities," said the researchers, adding that hunger and food insecurity are key factors motivating women's engagement in early marriage, commercial sex, transactional sex relationships, and other forms of risky sex engagements.

Using a structural equation modeling approach, Austin and her colleagues were able to test the indirect and direct links between food insecurity and HIV as well as the causal chain of factors involving drought, food insecurity, and women's HIV.

The results from the study found that drought escalates food insecurity, and food insecurity has indirect, negative impacts on women's status, including lower participation in education, higher fertility rates and reduced access to medical care. Since women's status and the use of contraceptives are tightly linked, these impediments directly increase the percentage of HIV cases among women, confirming the researchers' hypothesis.

"Uncovering these mechanisms would not have been possible with more mainstream approaches," said Austin.

It's common to see strict gender norms in place where women are typically the household managers, carrying the responsibility for growing and harvesting food, collecting firewood, fetching water, and other tasks that provide household needs through environmental resources. In less-developed countries, droughts are the most common cause of severe food shortages, affecting agriculture first. As a result, changes to the environment are likely to compromise women's health in these unique ways.

According to the research, when a crisis hits, women are typically the first to sacrifice their own food to ensure their children and others have enough to eat. Food insecurity directly leads to infection risks through nutrient deficiencies. Additionally, food insecurity indirectly intensifies gendered inequalities that limit women's access to healthcare, education, and improved autonomy, potentially putting women in a more vulnerable position of contracting HIV.

"Women in less-developed countries disproportionately bear the burden in terms of ill health when facing food insecurity or a shock or disaster like drought that impacts the ability to get food or harvest food," said Austin. "This information would be useful for policy makers and people working in international development and disaster response."

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Austin investigates this subject in a sister paper, "Drought and Disproportionate Disease: An Investigation of Gendered Vulnerabilities to HIV/AIDS in Less-Developed Nations," published in Springer Nature's Population & the Environment.