National Oil Companies Quietly Set The Pace For The Next Decade
- National oil companies are increasingly setting the pace in global energy investment, outspending majors, locking up long-life assets, and taking control of future supply.
- Listed oil companies face tighter capital discipline and shareholder constraints.
- North America has become the de-risking hub for foreign NOCs, especially in U.S. gas, LNG, and petrochemicals, offering stable cash flows and regulatory certainty
The prevailing structural theme right now is that national oil companies (NOCs), in some cases and across some segments, are moving faster than the majors, outspending them, beating them in locking up supply chains, and building cash cows faster for the future. You can see it directly in upstream spending trends highlighted by the IEA Oil 2025 report, and the money is shifting this way because the NOCs have political backing, lower lifting costs, and much clearer mandates than the big listed companies.
Wood Mackenzie has warned that tighter capital conditions are forcing oil and gas companies to become more selective in business development. Neivan Boroujerdi has said this will require a more nimble and creative approach as budgets tighten. In practice, that environment favors national oil companies with the balance sheets and mandates to secure gas, chemicals, and integrated assets early, rather than defer decisions. This is no longer hypothetical. Capital is already moving in that direction.
Similarly, OPEC’s latest medium-term outlook assumes that most incremental supply growth will come from countries with state-backed producers and low-cost reserves, suggesting we will be relying on NOCs for more long-cycle investment through the decade. Rystad Energy’s recent upstream and LNG analysis shows that the majority of newly sanctioned long-life projects are either led by NOCs or depend on them as anchor partners, while IOC capital remains concentrated in shorter-cycle or brownfield work. The IEA has also been explicit that future supply security hinges on investment decisions by national producers willing to commit capital beyond typical shareholder-return horizons.
Combined, these views indicate that capacity growth and control over future supply are increasingly being set by national companies rather than listed majors.
Asia: Adding Gas, Chemicals and Transition Materials
Asia’s NOCs are not easing off hydrocarbons, but they’re tightening their grip on those parts of the supply chain that will matter most over the next decade: gas, chemicals, metals and trading. PetroChina is a case in point: It has been pulling more capital toward downstream and gas while upgrading refineries for higher-margin products, as reported by Caixin.
The LNG side of things tells a similar story. PetroChina has been layering long-term supply deals into the 2030s, according to China Daily, and then diversifying away from spot exposure with new procurement corridors.
And while Western outlets fixate on earnings, Asian media have been quicker to catch the shift into transition materials. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) notes that PetroChina wants exposure to the upstream of electrification just as much as it wants downstream oil and gas. It’s not really a transition as much as it is a hedge. They’re going for whatever powers Asian industry next.
China’s Sinopec is doing something similar, but the strategy is chemicals-heavy. As fuel demand flattens, Sinopec is putting more capital into petrochemicals, hydrogen, and CCUS. It’s also doubling down on long-term LNG to feed industrial boilers and heavy manufacturing that fall under its new policy mandates. The bigger refining margins in 2025 gave them the power to do this, according to SCMP.
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CNOOC, as an outlier, is staying the course, focusing on upstream and LNG, but looking to scale both. Offshore output is rising again with new South China Sea projects being added on, and the company is buying into LNG projects up the chain rather than staying a pure buyer. The goal is straightforward: control more of the gas it needs for its power and industrial clients rather than relying on the spot market.
Petronas is expanding its LNG position and lining up more supply from projects in the Atlantic and Indian basins. At home, it is spending on gas, CCS, hydrogen and midstream work that supports the domestic power system.
India’s ONGC is adding to its overseas portfolio and increasing its access to gas. The Economic Times reports that ONGC Videsh has raised its spending outside India, and state buyers are now coordinating long term LNG procurement.
Across the region, NOCs are concentrating on the areas that support their revenue base: gas supply, refining output, chemicals and firm access to transport routes. They are securing these positions now while the opportunity is still visible.
Middle East / Gulf: Expanding Capacity and Integration
Gulf NOCs are expanding low-cost supply and increasing their integration across refining, petrochemicals and LNG.
Middle Eastern NOCs continue to take a larger share of global upstream spending, according to the IEA’s 2025 investment report. Global upstream totals are largely flat, but the region’s state producers are still increasing outlays. Most of this capital is going into long-life capacity and integrated projects rather than short-cycle additions, consistent with their role as the lowest-cost suppliers in the system.
ADNOC’s investment arm XRG has outlined the largest expansion plan in the region. It is targeting 20 to 25 million tonnes a year of gas and LNG capacity by 2035 and is adding assets in North American gas to support that target. Reuters reporting also shows ADNOC is moving its existing U.S. holdings into XRG and positioning the unit to lead further international gas and LNG deals, including in North America.
What we know for certain: ADNOC wants a larger operational and financial position in North American gas.
QatarEnergy is expanding LNG output through the North Field program and using longer-term contracts to secure demand in Europe and Asia. Based on public statements from the energy minister, Qatar expects tighter LNG balances later in the decade.
Finally, Saudi Aramco, the NOC that gets the most headline attention, is tying together upstream, downstream, gas and “new energies” into one roaring machine. Recent agreements in the United States on LNG, technology and services show Aramco placing capital directly inside key consuming markets.
The overriding Gulf strategy? Outspend everyone, integrate everything, and get as close to the customer as possible.
Latin America: Holding Output and Preserving Cash
Latin America’s state producers are trying to hold production steady while managing tight budgets and a very mixed bag of political situations.
Petrobras has more room than the others. The Brazilian NOC’s 2026 to 2030 plan shows lower headline capital spending, but the company still intends to grow pre-salt output and keep most of its money in projects that are already under way. Company filings confirm about $109 billion in planned investment, with roughly $91 billion already committed. The plan is to keep the pre-salt program moving along, avoid expensive frontier work, and only allocate to gas, chemicals and lower carbon projects once the core fields are covered.
Ecopetrol, of Colombia, is trying to build a broader base. Its public strategy documents outline a larger role for transmission, solar and wind along with the oil and gas business. The ISA unit already delivers steady money, and the company wants that share to rise. The changes are meant to give Ecopetrol more stable earnings while it manages slower growth in upstream oil.
Mexico’s Pemex, Venezuela’s PDVSA and Argentina’s YPF face constraints that limit their options. Debt, field decline and political pressure shape most of their decisions. Pemex remains the most indebted energy company in the world despite government support and debt operations, with falling output still a concern. PDVSA’s exports and operations remain heavily shaped by U.S. sanctions, payment problems and the structure of swap deals with foreign partners. YPF is under pressure from higher costs, rising debt and adverse court rulings, and has reported recent quarterly losses. Across all three, the priority is to keep existing production from falling faster and to maintain enough progress on power or lower carbon projects, where applicable, to preserve financing and political backing.
Africa: Building Control While Managing Risk
Africa has real upside. The hard part is getting projects funded and delivered on schedule.
A Bloomberg investigation showed how large discoveries across the continent have brought in less local economic benefit than expected, which has led several governments to push their national companies to take more control.
Nigeria’s NNPC is the one pushing volume. Guardian Nigeria reported NNPC Exploration and Production reaching about 355,000 barrels a day, the highest level in more than 30 years. And now the NNPC has a new chief, with a new mandate: lift output and get the domestic refining system working.
Mozambique, Senegal, Ghana and Uganda are banking on gas. Their LNG and integrated gas projects are the only near term path to new export income at scale. The payoff depends on construction staying on schedule and on governments holding meaningful equity rather than sliding back into arrangements where most of the value lies with outside operators.
Across the region, governments want their national companies to move from passive royalty collectors to active operators, but there is plenty of execution risk here.
North America: The Market NOCs Use to De-Risk
North America is not building a national oil company, but it is building something else: a federal-backed critical-minerals base. The Trump administration has been taking equity positions in rare earth and battery-metal supply chains, buying into private and public companies to secure domestic production. On the hydrocarbon side, the region has become the place where foreign NOCs go to balance their portfolios.
ADNOC’s use of XRG, as mentioned above, makes the intent clear. Gulf producers want a bigger position in U.S. gas, LNG and petrochemicals, and they are using XRG to buy the exposure. Equity in LNG trains, chemical complexes on the Gulf Coast and related midstream is now being treated as core to their ten-year plan.
On the Asian side, PetroChina is moving into transition materials. It wants to operate across the industrial supply chain, not just in crude and products.
Wood Mackenzie’s public outlooks point to a busy upstream M&A cycle, with several state-owned producers listed among the likely active buyers. Their U.S. gas and LNG notes also underline that North America remains one of the most stable regions for long-life assets, with deep capital pools and clear operating rules. That combination makes the U.S. a practical place for foreign NOCs to take positions, even if Wood Mackenzie does not explicitly describe this as a dedicated NOC strategy.
North America is the hedge, then. It is the one market where NOCs can diversify risk and attach themselves to cash flow that holds up in volatile cycles.
The map for the next decade is fairly easy to follow. Asia’s national companies are keeping oil and gas at the center while adding metals, LNG and trading positions. The Gulf producers are putting money into long-life supply and deeper integration. Latin America is leaning on pre-salt output and transmission assets to keep their budgets steady. Africa is trying to capture more value by taking a larger operating role in its own projects. North America is where foreign NOCs place capital to stabilize returns and broaden their portfolios.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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