Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure in recent weeks, striking refineries and key export terminals as part of a broader campaign against its energy system – but it is unclear how effective the strategy will prove.
Issued on: 09/04/2026 - RFI
Smoke rising from damaged oil storage tanks after a Ukrainian attack in Primorsk,
Russia, on 29 March 2026. © via REUTERS - VANTOR
Since March, Ukrainian strikes have reached deeper into Russian territory, damaging refineries as well as major terminals that are central to Russia’s oil exports.
After a campaign targeting sites on both the Baltic and the Black Sea, Ukraine’s defence ministry says it has hit more than a dozen oil-related sites in the past month.
Ukraine has also expanded its list of targets beyond energy, identifying sectors such as metallurgy, fertilisers and microchips as linked to Russia’s war industry.
The defence ministry has said it considers oil sites to be military assets. The campaign also comes in response to repeated Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Earlier this week, Kyiv proposed an energy truce. “If Russia is ready to stop striking our energy sector, we will be ready to do the same,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address on Monday.
The Kremlin has not responded. The following morning, a swarm of 22 drones struck Russia’s Ust-Luga oil terminal, nearly 1,000 kilometres north of Kyiv.
Since March, Ukrainian strikes have reached deeper into Russian territory, damaging refineries as well as major terminals that are central to Russia’s oil exports.
After a campaign targeting sites on both the Baltic and the Black Sea, Ukraine’s defence ministry says it has hit more than a dozen oil-related sites in the past month.
Ukraine has also expanded its list of targets beyond energy, identifying sectors such as metallurgy, fertilisers and microchips as linked to Russia’s war industry.
The defence ministry has said it considers oil sites to be military assets. The campaign also comes in response to repeated Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Earlier this week, Kyiv proposed an energy truce. “If Russia is ready to stop striking our energy sector, we will be ready to do the same,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address on Monday.
The Kremlin has not responded. The following morning, a swarm of 22 drones struck Russia’s Ust-Luga oil terminal, nearly 1,000 kilometres north of Kyiv.
Export choke points
Ukraine’s recent strikes have focused on the limited number of routes Russia uses to export its oil.
“Russia exports a lot of its oil, but it cannot do so from many places,” Ulrich Bounat, a geopolitical analyst specialising in central and eastern Europe, told RFI.
Russia, he said, relies on three main ports on its western side: Primorsk and Ust-Luga in the Baltic, and Novorossiysk in the Black Sea.
“In the past three weeks, we have seen strikes becoming systematic on these three ports, targeting storage areas but also export terminals,” Bounat added.
Russia's Ust-Luga oil terminal, some 110 km from St Petersburg, has been the target of repeated strikes by Ukraine. © Alexander Demianchuk / Reuters
The explosions have destroyed large oil stocks and damaged infrastructure, while Ukrainian operations on Sunday also struck a pipeline near the port of Primorsk.
Earlier waves of attacks showed Russia could shift production and repair damaged sites relatively quickly.
“The Russians master these technologies, so they know how to repair them, but it forces them to carry out a lot of maintenance, and the people in charge are not at the front,” Thierry Bros, an energy specialist and professor at Sciences Po university in Paris, told RFI.
Economic pressure
The strikes are also aimed at limiting Russia’s revenues from oil exports.
Targeting export capacity can “limit its war chest”, Bros said, while also showing the Russian population that the war is not going as planned.
Repeated attacks on Primorsk and Ust-Luga in late March caused nearly $1 billion in losses, according to figures from the Kyiv School of Economics cited by the Financial Times. Together, the two ports handle around 40 percent of Russia’s oil exports.
The campaign comes as oil prices have risen since the start of the war in Iran, increasing the value of Russian exports.
On 12 March, the United States eased sanctions on Russian oil, offering Moscow some relief from the restrictions that applied to two of its major producers. Ukraine has since tried to reduce those gains by targeting export infrastructure.
The strikes also signal Ukraine’s role in the wider global system, Bros said. “They are a variable in this global system, and if we want to find a solution, we will have to talk to them,” he said.
“Donald Trump is not giving them weapons, Europe is endlessly thinking about what to do. The Ukrainians are using their weapons.”
A risky balance
The strategy carries risks. Disrupting Russian oil flows affects global markets already under pressure from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
There are also limits to the impact. Russia does not rely solely on exports, as it also earns revenue through taxes on oil extraction.
Reducing supply can also push prices higher, increasing the value of the oil that still reaches the market.
Some of Ukraine’s allies have reportedly urged Kyiv to scale back strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, citing concerns over global energy prices.
Zelensky has said the attacks will continue unless Russia makes concessions.
This story has been adapted from the original version in French by Jean-Baptiste Breen and lightly edited for clarity.
The explosions have destroyed large oil stocks and damaged infrastructure, while Ukrainian operations on Sunday also struck a pipeline near the port of Primorsk.
Earlier waves of attacks showed Russia could shift production and repair damaged sites relatively quickly.
“The Russians master these technologies, so they know how to repair them, but it forces them to carry out a lot of maintenance, and the people in charge are not at the front,” Thierry Bros, an energy specialist and professor at Sciences Po university in Paris, told RFI.
Economic pressure
The strikes are also aimed at limiting Russia’s revenues from oil exports.
Targeting export capacity can “limit its war chest”, Bros said, while also showing the Russian population that the war is not going as planned.
Repeated attacks on Primorsk and Ust-Luga in late March caused nearly $1 billion in losses, according to figures from the Kyiv School of Economics cited by the Financial Times. Together, the two ports handle around 40 percent of Russia’s oil exports.
The campaign comes as oil prices have risen since the start of the war in Iran, increasing the value of Russian exports.
On 12 March, the United States eased sanctions on Russian oil, offering Moscow some relief from the restrictions that applied to two of its major producers. Ukraine has since tried to reduce those gains by targeting export infrastructure.
The strikes also signal Ukraine’s role in the wider global system, Bros said. “They are a variable in this global system, and if we want to find a solution, we will have to talk to them,” he said.
“Donald Trump is not giving them weapons, Europe is endlessly thinking about what to do. The Ukrainians are using their weapons.”
A risky balance
The strategy carries risks. Disrupting Russian oil flows affects global markets already under pressure from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
There are also limits to the impact. Russia does not rely solely on exports, as it also earns revenue through taxes on oil extraction.
Reducing supply can also push prices higher, increasing the value of the oil that still reaches the market.
Some of Ukraine’s allies have reportedly urged Kyiv to scale back strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, citing concerns over global energy prices.
Zelensky has said the attacks will continue unless Russia makes concessions.
This story has been adapted from the original version in French by Jean-Baptiste Breen and lightly edited for clarity.
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