#FIGHTFOR15

A huge majority of Americans want a $15 minimum wage, but they waver after hearing its economic impact

THE REACTIONARY BUSINESS INTERESTS ESPECIALLY FAST FOOD LIE ABOUT ITS ACTUAL IMPACT, HAS MCDONALDS OR WENDY'S GONE OUT OF BUSINESS?

NO THEY HAVE THRIVED UNDER THE MINIMUM WAGE BROUGHT IN IN 1938

Joseph Zeballos-Roig and Walt Hickey
Jul 18, 2019, 11:05 AM

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

An overwhelming majority of respondents in a new INSIDER poll indicated they would support a $15 minimum wage, highlighting how a progressive priority has gained support across the ideological spectrum.

But support declined markedly among self-identified Democrats and self-identified Republicans when they were told of a possible impact on the American economy.

In other words, Americans are largely comfortable with sweeping ideas, like a $15 minimum wage or "Medicare for All," that could improve their lives — but they start to waver when they understand some of its possible trade-offs.

The federal minimum wage stands at $7.25, and it hasn't been raised in a decade. Last month marked the longest period in American history without a wage increase.

An overwhelming majority of respondents in a new INSIDER poll indicated they would support a $15 minimum wage, highlighting how a progressive priority has gained support across the ideological spectrum. But support declined markedly among self-identified Democrats and self-identified Republicans when they were told of its possible impact on the American economy.

The broad support is good news for House Democrats. They voted 231-199 on Thursday to gradually lift the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2025, delivering on a priority that's long been popular among their liberal base. But the bill is not expected to advance in the GOP-led Senate, where Republicans argue it would kill jobs and stymie economic gains made under President Donald Trump's time in office.

The vote follows a report released last week from the Congressional Budget Office projecting that a $15 minimum wage could lift 1.3 million Americans out of poverty but also put an equal number of Americans out of work. It also projected that raising the minimum wage would boost pay for 27 million workers.

Read more: A government report found that if the US raised the minimum wage to $15 an hour it would eliminate 1.3 million jobs — but also lift 1.3 million Americans out of povertyFAKE JOBS VS REAL IMPACT LIFTING PEOPLE OUT OF POVERTY 

The federal minimum wage stands at $7.25, and it hasn't been raised in a decade. Last month marked the longest period in American history without a wage increase, according to the Economic Policy Institute. But with wages stagnant, the $15 minimum wage has become a political priority among Democrats: Nearly all the primary candidates have endorsed it.

In our poll, we asked over 1,100 respondents about their views on raising the minimum wage and its possible impact, per the CBO report. We did this by asking two separate questions.

The first question, "Do you support or oppose increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour?" was intended to determine whether the respondent liked the broad policy change of hiking the minimum wage.

Overall, a total 63% of respondents supported or strongly supported increasing the minimum wage to $15 per hour, with the strongest supporters being on the left, and only 22% opposed. Around 81% of respondents who self-identified as Democratic primary voters supported or strongly supported raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour. Only 10% opposed or strongly opposed it, and 7% neither supported nor opposed it. One percent responded, "I don't know."

The second question asked more about the broader policy implications of the minimum wage hike, per the CBO. Much later in the survey, respondents were asked:

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that a proposed policy would have the following impacts: Pay increases for 27 million workers, 1.3 million households lifted out of poverty, however, a median projection of 1.3 million job losses.

Based on those benefits and costs alone, would you support or oppose that policy proposal?

After being told that "a proposed policy" to raise the minimum wage could lead to 1.3 million job losses, people were considerably less enthusiastic. Thirty-seven percent of respondents would support a policy with those implications, considerably down from the 63% who backed a $15 minimum wage.

However, while some were turned off by the policy — 25% opposed it, up from the 22% who opposed the $15 minimum wage — more simply became neutral on the topic or said they didn't know how they'd feel, a group that constitutes 37% of the set compared with just 15% who answered that way in response to the more straightforward $15 per hour question.

Indeed, only half of Democratic respondents still supported or strongly supported the generic measure. Then 16% opposed or strongly opposed it, and 24% neither supported nor opposed it. Nine percent said, "I don't know."

The same trend was visible among self-identified Republicans. Forty-three percent supported or strongly supported a $15 minimum wage, while 40% opposed or strongly opposed the measure. Fifteen percent neither supported nor opposed it, and 1% responded, "I don't know."

Only 24% of Republican respondents supported or strongly supported it after being told that a policy to raise the wage would lead to the job losses. Forty-four percent opposed or strongly opposed it, while 26% neither supported nor opposed it. Six percent said, "I don't know."

Read more: A minimum-wage worker needs 1.5 jobs just to afford half the rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in most of the US

The INSIDER results are reminiscent of other polling conducted on "Medicare for all," a popular idea among progressive Democrats that's gained traction among eight candidates, including Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, two primary front-runners. Many voters back creating a government-run healthcare system. But support plummets when they learn they could pay higher taxes or face longer waiting periods before seeing a doctor.

In other words, Americans are largely comfortable with sweeping ideas, like a $15 minimum wage or Medicare for All, that could improve their lives — but they start to waver when they understand some of its possible trade-offs.

SurveyMonkey Audience polls from a national sample balanced by census data of age and gender. Respondents are incentivized to complete surveys through charitable contributions. Generally speaking, digital polling tends to skew toward people with access to the internet. SurveyMonkey Audience doesn't try to weight its sample based on race or income. Total 1,006 respondents collected July 9 to July 10 with a margin of error plus or minus 3.15 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. See this page for more details about methodology.

SEE ALSO: The minimum wage is set to increase in 21 states and DC in 2019 — here's what it will be in every state