Sunday, January 12, 2020


UPDATED

Taiwan's Tsai wins landslide in stinging result for China
BY JEROME TAYLOR, AMBER WANG (AFP)

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen won a landslide election victory on Saturday as voters delivered a stunning rebuke of Beijing's campaign to isolate the self-ruled island and handed its first female leader a second term.

Tsai, 63, was greeted by thousands of jubilant flag-waving supporters outside her party headquarters, hailing a result which looks set to infuriate China.

"Today we have defended our democracy and freedom, tomorrow let us stand united to overcome all challenges and difficulties," she told the cheering crowd.

Official results showed Tsai secured 57 percent of the popular vote with a record-breaking 8.2 million ballots, 1.3 million more than her 2016 victory.

Tsai Ing-wen supporters celebrate her victory and chant 

slogans in support of pro-democracy protesters in Hong 
Kong outside the Democratic Progressive Party's 
headquarters in Taipei   Chris STOWERS, AFP

Her main rival Han Kuo-yu, from the China-friendly Kuomintang, racked up 39 percent and conceded defeat.

The result is a blow for Beijing, which views Taiwan as its own territory and has made no secret of wanting to see Tsai turfed out.

Over the last four years it ramped up economic, military and diplomatic pressure on the self-ruled island, hoping it would scare voters into supporting Tsai's opposition.

Turnout in the poll was 75 percent, a jump of nearly 
10 percent from Tsai's first election victory four years ago
Chris STOWERS, AFP

But the strong arm tactics backfired and voters flocked to her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), fuelled in part by China's hardline response to months of huge and violent pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.

The result was welcomed by the United States, Taiwan's primary military ally, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo saluting Tsai's "commitment to maintaining cross-Strait stability in the face of unrelenting pressure".

- 'No threats' -

Tsai pitched herself as a defender of liberal democratic values against the increasingly authoritarian shadow cast by China under President Xi Jinping.

Taiwan
Janis LATVELS, AFP

Beijing has vowed to one day retake the island, by force if necessary. It loathes Tsai because she refuses to acknowledge the idea that Taiwan is part of "one China".

Her campaign frequently invoked Hong Kong's protests as a warning of what might lie ahead should China one day take control of Taiwan.

During her victory speech Tsai said she was committed to dialogue with China's leaders and wanted peace.

But she called on Beijing to halt its sabre rattling towards Taiwan and respect the idea that only the island's 23 million inhabitants can decide its future.

"Today I want to once again remind the Beijing authorities that peace, parity, democracy and dialogue are the keys to stability," Tsai said.

"I want the Beijing authorities to know that democratic Taiwan and our democratically elected government will never concede to threats".

But China is also Taiwan's largest trade partner, leaving the island in a precariously dependent relationship.

After Tsai's speech, Chinese state media carried a short statment from the mainland's Taiwan Affairs Office saying Beijing "opposed any form of Taiwanese independence splittist attempts".

Tsai said she was committed to dialogue with China's leaders
 and wanted peace  Sam Yeh, AFP

Han, the 62-year-old mayor of the southern city of Kaohsiung, favoured much warmer ties with China -- saying it would boost Taiwan's fortunes -- and accused the current administration of needlessly antagonising Beijing.

But his campaign struggled to gain momentum or escape the perception that he was too cosy with Taiwan's giant neighbour.

Turnout in the poll was 75 percent, a jump of nearly 10 percent from Tsai's first presidential election victory four years ago.

Official results showed the DPP managed to retain its majority in the island's unicameral parliament with 61 out of 113 seats, while the KMT took 38 seats.

- Carrot or stick? -

Tsai's victory is the second major electoral setback for Beijing in recent weeks.

In November, Hong Kong's pro-democracy camp scored a landslide win over pro-Beijing parties in district elections as the city convulses with months of anti-government protests.

Taiwanese voters have watched recent pro-democracy 
unrest in Hong Kong closely  Sam Yeh, AFP

"Tsai's landslide victory is like a slap in the face to Beijing as Taiwanese voters say no to its intimidation," Hung Chin-fu, a political analyst at Taiwan's National Cheng Kung University, told AFP.

Joshua Eisenman, a foreign affairs expert the University of Notre Dame, said all eyes will be watching China's response.

"Will the hardline position towards Tsai... be continued or will Beijing adopt a more 'soft sell' approach that is more carrot and less stick?" he said.

Taiwanese voters have watched events in Hong Kong closely because the financial hub is run on Beijing's "one country, two systems" model.

China has suggested the same model could one day be applied to Taiwan if the island ever came to be controlled by Beijing.

But an increasing number of Taiwanese voters are spooked by that proposal.

"I don't want Taiwan's democracy to turn into how Hong Kong is now," Dennis Wu, a doctor, told AFP as he cast a vote for Tsai in the capital Taipei.

---30----

Tsai faces choppy China waters after Taiwan election landslide

Emphatic victory underlines growing sense of identity on island that China has vowed to take back by force if necessary.

by Violet Law 4 hours ago
Tsai Ing-wen was returned for a second term with a 
landslide in a repudiation of mainland China 
[How Hwee Young/EPA]

Taipei, Taiwan - Electoral politics in Taiwan have long reverberated across the narrow body of water that is perhaps one of the world's greatest political and ideological divides.

On Saturday, Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected as Taiwan's president with 57 percent of the vote, an all-time high. Nearly three in four of the 19-million-strong electorate cast a ballot.

Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) managed to hold on to its majority in the 113-seat legislature as well, giving Tsai free rein to push on with her agenda in her final four-year term beginning May 20.

For most observers, both in Taiwan and abroad, the outcome was just as predicted, and the US secretary of state hailed the election as proof that Taiwan "is a force for good".

Across the strait, however, Beijing took it as a punch to the stomach.

State news media blamed "anti-China political forces" for Tsai's re-election, calling her victory a threat to the "peaceful development of cross-strait relations".

Ever since the Nationalists lost the civil war to the Communists in 1949 and retreated to Taiwan as the Republic of China, Beijing has regarded the island as a renegade province that would eventually return to the fold.
'Dried mango'

Over the years, the China-friendly Nationalists have come to be seen more as partners by the Communist rulers on the mainland, while the homegrown DPP has become a pro-independence foe.

China's President Xi Jinping put pressure on Tsai from the
 time she was elected in 2016 and in a New Year's address
 in 2019 unveiled a 'one country, two systems' approach
 for reunification that worried people in Taiwan, especially 
when protests in Hong Kong started in June 
[File: Mark Schiefelbein/Pool via Reuters]

Soon after Tsai was first elected in 2016 - even though she maintained the status quo had not changed -China began putting the squeeze on Taiwan. Mainland Chinese tourists were barred from travelling across the strait, and its diplomatic allies pressured to switch allegiance from Taiwan to the People's Republic of China. Tsai called it "dollar diplomacy".

Barely a year ago in a New Year's address to the Taiwanese, China's President Xi Jinping unveiled his plan to introduce the "one country, two systems" concept for the island, modelled on the framework under which British colonial Hong Kong was returned to Chinese sovereignty in 1997.

Xi's proclamation helped change the electoral dynamics - and put the focus on Taiwan's survival. "Dried mango", a homophonic wordplay which belied the heaviness of "the fear of losing one's nation" soon caught on, especially among young voters.

Taiwan election seen as referendum on China influence (2:12)

And then, in June, protests broke out in Hong Kong, shaking many people in Taiwan.

"It's very real, as Beijing's design for Taiwan is very clear," Ching Cheong, a Hong Kong-based veteran China watcher, observing the elections in Taipei, told Al Jazeera.

"Yet, Tsai persuasively used Hong Kong in her campaign, telling her voters Taiwan's democracy is what the Hong Kong protesters are fighting for."
'Safeguard Taiwan'

Even if Beijing harboured any hope, this election represented the resolute renunciation of "one country, two systems," even by Tsai's main rival Han Kuo-yu of the Nationalist Party.

Campaigning on his common-man appeal with a touch of Trump, Han damaged his image early on by appearing to close to Communist Chinese officials and later by supporting Hong Kong's crackdown on protesters.

But he soon made an about-face: "One country, two systems" in Taiwan would be possible only "over my dead body".

Han lost big, even in his base in the southern industrial city of Kaohsiung, where he was elected mayor in late 2018.

Supporters of Han Kuo-yu, candidate for the China-friendly
 Nationalist Party. Han eventually distanced himself from
 China during the campaign [Ng Han Guan/AP Photo]
THE IRONY HERE IS THAT HE WAS SEEN AS AN AGENT OF CHINA DESPITE 
LEADING THE KUOMINTANG WHICH FOUNDED TAIWAN AGAINST COMMUNIST
CHINA WHEN THEY LOST THE CIVIL WAR AGAINST THE CCP THEY RAN AWAY TO
FORMOSA NOW CALLED TAIWAN.

Elections began in Taiwan only in 1996, and dictatorship remains etched in most voters' living memories with martial law under the Nationalists ending only in 1987.

The loosening of the Nationalists' grip has given way to a flowering of a vibrant, anything-goes political culture with nearly 300 parties - from granddads to YouTubers. Nearly 20 parties contested this election.

Electioneering is characteristically bombastic and rambunctious. Candidates staged "momentum building" rallies to fire up crowds.


Chinese government upholds one-China principle and opposes "#Taiwan independence". Global community's shared consensus on one-China principle won't change: Chinese FM https://t.co/snI0nMydRC https://t.co/7mAykqiEv7— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) January 12, 2020

At Tsai's rally on the eve of election day, millions of supporters swarmed the boulevard outside the Presidential Hall Plaza, chanting "cold garlic" (a near homophone of "get elected").

But in the sea of lime green flags (the party's colour), a few black banners stood out.

"Hope the lessons Hong Kongers learned through blood and tears tell your conscience to safeguard Taiwan," read one.

As the crowds teemed, cries of solidarity rang out: "Taiwan, Add Oil! Hong Kong, Add Oil!"
Balancing act

The Taiwanese have followed the half-year of protests in Hong Kong with intense interest.

"The recent chaos in Hong Kong was a clear reaffirmation to the Taiwanese that unification on Beijing's terms - and it will always be on Beijing's terms - would come with undeniable costs to its political freedoms," J Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera.

"The Taiwanese do not need Hong Kong to know that, but developments there have certainly underscored the effects of subsuming one's sovereignty into central rule in Beijing."

Tsai's supporters made no secret of their opposition to China 

[Ritchie B Tongo/EPA]

Political pundits differ as to what extent Tsai benefitted from Hong Kong's ongoing strife in reversing her party's fortunes after a stinging defeat in the 2018 local elections. But all agreed Hong Kong has emerged as the new challenge in cross-strait relations.

At least hundreds, if not thousands, of Hong Kong protesters have sought refuge on the island, where a network of support has sprung up mostly on the strength of civil society. Tsai has repeatedly said she will not push refugee legislation to help handle the exodus.

But with her re-election, the pressure on her administration is expected to mount, not least because there appears to be little chance that Beijing will back down over Hong Kong.

If Tsai does not act, she risks losing her base.

"This will hurt the reputation of the DPP and the youth vote," said Lev Nachman, a political science PhD candidate at the University of California Irvine specialising in social movements in Taiwan and Hong Kong.

But if she does do something to help the Hong Kong exiles, she risks fanning Chinese anger.

"If Beijing began to regard Taiwan as a springboard from which Hong Kong activists seek to 'destabilise' the [city] or China proper, Beijing could, in turn, decide to retaliate against Taiwan, a turn of events which would undermine Taiwan's national security," said Cole.

One thing is certain in Tsai's second term: The newfound solidarity between Hong Kong and Taiwan will mean rougher waves in already choppy political waters.

THE LISTENING POST
Taiwan's push against 'red media'

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA NEWS

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