Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Coronavirus engulfs Europe: Angela Merkel warns up to 58 MILLION Germans - 60-70% of the population - will be infected, as Spain sees infections triple in two days and Italy records 168 fatalities in ONE DAY

Infection is now transmitting between humans in nearly 30 countries across Europe, the WHO warned today

Angela Merkel warned as many as 70 per cent of Germans could become infected with the coronavirus

Chancellor's prediction would see 58 million of 82 million population of Germany contract the spreading virus

Germany so far has seen two fatalities and registered 1,139 cases of virus and has cancelled public events 

Spain saw a surge of virus cases reach 1,622 infections and 35 deaths as schools and universities were closed

Coronavirus death toll outside China soared to past 1,000 as Italy recorded 168 fatalities in just one day

In the UK the sixth victim of the disease was recorded as infections in the county rose by 61 in a day to 382

Worldwide COVID-19 has infected more than 114,000 people and over 4,000 have died from the illness

By CHRIS DYER FOR MAILONLINE and REUTERS 10 March 2020

As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.

Addressing a parliamentary group meeting of her Christian Democratic Union party in Berlin today, Merkel said that 58 million Germans could contract the disease if it spiralled out of control, according to insiders who spoke to newspaper Bild.

But Health Minister Jens Spahn pointed out during the meeting that 80 per cent of all infected patients would have almost no symptoms.

The infection is now transmitting between humans in nearly 30 countries across Europe, the World Health Organization has warned today.

Fears of the life-threatening infection have now engulfed the continent, which has recorded more than 17,000 cases and over 700 deaths in Europe alone.

Europe's crisis – centred in northern Italy but now rapidly spreading – began with a handful of imported cases from China, but has now seen tourist attractions and transport hubs deserted.

Italy went into a nationwide lockdown on Monday night and today recorded its highest single-day toll to date with 168 fatalities. This pushed the number of deaths outside China to more than 1,000.

WHO chiefs have now confirmed local transmission – when an infection spreads within a country – in 27 European nations.

It came as the number of virus cases in Spain surged to 1,622 infections and 35 deaths as universities and schools in the capital Madrid were closed.

Overall in Italy, 631 people have died from the COVID-19 disease caused by the virus and 10,149 have been infected in just over two weeks.

The UK recorded its sixth death from the virus today as infections in the county rose by 61 to 382. Globally, more than 114,000 people have been infected and over 4,000 have died from the illness since the outbreak began in China in December.

Spain's virus cases surged to 1,622 infections and 35 deaths today and Italy recorded 168 fatalities as German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned up to 70 per cent of her citizens could be infected
France recorded a 70 per cent rise in cases over Monday night, with more than 1,200 patients now known to have caught the deadly infection.
The country's health ministry gave chemists the green light to produce their own hydro-alcoholic hand sanitizer gels following a shortage. 
Germany and Spain also saw huge spikes in the number of infected patients, while the UK's toll has risen eight-fold in the space of a week.
Albania today became the latest nation to be struck down, meaning only a handful of countries across the continent have yet to record a case.
Europe's escalating coronavirus crisis comes just weeks before thousands of British families will travel to the continent for Easter.
In other developments, a maintenance worker at Disneyland Paris tested positive for coronavirus, the theme park announced today.
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen today pledged to mobilise 'all the tools' available to the bloc to lessen the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic, which has roiled markets across the globe.
After EU leaders held crisis talks by video conference to try to coordinate their response to the epidemic, Von der Leyen sought to reassure businesses and governments spooked by the spread of the disease.
Among the measures is a coronavirus response investment fund backed by 7.5 billion euros ($8.5 billion) in EU funding - subject to approval by member states and the European Parliament.
Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte announced a new government decree on Monday night, banning public gatherings, restricting all but essential travel between cities and imposing a three-foot rule to keep people in public spaces apart. 

Merkel added to fears of mass-infection when she said up to 58 million of her countrymen could contract the fast-spreading contagion.
When she made the announcement there was silence among other politicians at the meeting, Bild reported. 
Merkel told her party: 'Sixty to 70 per cent of people in Germany will become infected with the coronavirus. We are facing a challenge that we have never had before.'
Germany, which has so far seen two deaths from the disease that has infected more than 110,000 people worldwide, has a population of 82.9 million people.  
Spahn confirmed the Chancellor's figures if a vaccine is not developed before the virus takes hold of Europe, but added that many patients would be symptom-less.
The Spanish capital Madrid is taking drastic measures to prevent the spread of the disease by closing all schools and universities and disinfecting public transport every day. 
Even though the tourist season is fast approaching the government of Catalonia - which includes the popular destination of Barcelona - has said they will bring in similar measures if necessary.
Barcelona's Champions League last-16 second leg match with Napoli scheduled for March 18 will take place without spectators due to fears over the spread of the coronavirus, a club spokesman said today. 
Spanish parliament's lower house suspended all activities for at least a week after lawmaker Javier Ortega Smith's party Vox revealed he had been diagnosed with coronavirus, El Pais reported. 
It comes after the last Britons who were quarantined at the H10 Costa Adeje Palace Hotel in Tenerife were finally allowed to leave today after Italian tourists tested positive for the virus there. 
A British father tested positive in Majorca last month. The 46-year-old patient caught the killer bug in France but only developed symptoms on return to his Palma home on the Spanish island. 
Twenty-eight people have died in Spain from the virus, official figures show. There are a total of 1,204 cases, still far behind Italy's tally.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said earlier on Monday, without giving details, that the government was preparing plans to mitigate the impact of the virus on the Spanish economy.
Elsewhere in Europe, Albania reported its first confirmed cases of the killer coronavirus today – a father and son who drove back from Florence.
The unidentified pair – a 54-year-old and his 28-year-old – are in hospital in Tirana, the capital of Albania. Both are in a stable condition. 
Albania today also announced it will close schools and ban public gatherings for two weeks because of the outbreak.
Four European countries – Turkey, Cyprus, Montenegro and Kosovo – have yet to announce any COVID-19 cases. 
Under new measures brought in on Monday, Germany introduced drive-through health screenings where health officials are able to swab patients for the killer infection while they sit in their cars.
The NHS in the UK has already set up drive-thru coronavirus test centre in a bid to keep infected patients away from hospitals. Similar testing methods have been used in South Korea and China.
Today it was announced that large cultural events in the German capital's theatres, operas and concert houses will be cancelled from tomorrow to prevent coronavirus contagion.
The measure will remain in place until April 19, and will also affect concerts at the renowned Berlin Philharmonic, Berlin's pointman on culture, Klaus Lederer, said Tuesday, adding that it was 'regrettable but one must assume the responsibility'. 
Organisers of smaller shows in locations holding up to 500 people will have to decide individually if their events will go ahead, in accordance with guidance given by the federal disease control centre Robert Koch Institute. 
Spahn had recommended that events with more than 1,000 people should be scrapped until further notice, after coronavirus cases in Germany soared past 1,100 this week. 
Several Bundesliga games will be played without spectators, while other huge fairs including Berlin's ITB travel show and the Hannover Messe technology event have been scrapped. 
Everything that is non-essential should be cancelled to contain the virus, Merkel said, adding: 'Games behind closed doors are not the worst thing that can happen in this country.' 
Germany's biggest cluster of infected patients are in the country's most populous state North Rhine-Westphalia, where 323 cases have been reported in the district of Heinsberg alone.
Two people have also died of the virus in the state.
As of Monday, Germany had registered 1,139 coronavirus cases with two fatalities, according to government data. 
President Donald Trump today said the coronavirus outbreak would 'go away' and urged Americans to remain calm as cases jumped and the White House came under mounting pressure to boost its response to the health and economic crisis.
A steady rise in the number of US cases of COVID-19 has concerned health officials and spurred calls within Congress for action to expand testing and avert an economic meltdown.
About three quarters of US states now have confirmed COVID-19 with over 800 Americans infected, Washington state's governor warned of tens of thousands more cases without 'real action' and New York's governor deployed National Guard troops as a containment measure in a hard-hit New York City suburb. 
The outbreak is hitting the German economy through cancellations in the tourism sector and industry is expected to suffer supply chain problems in coming weeks, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier added today.
Asked if Europe's largest economy was heading into a recession in the first half of this year, Altmaier said the situation was very difficult and that he hoped Germany could avoid the type of coronavirus-related restrictions to travel and civic life enforced in Italy. 
Altmaier, speaking after talks with economy ministers from the 16 regional state governments, said Chancellor Merkel's cabinet would on Wednesday pass more flexible rules on short-time working to help companies bridge liquidity problems and avoid layoffs. 
China, where the coronavirus was first diagnosed in late 2019, is Germany's biggest trading partner, and German companies depend on both Chinese demand and supply chains.
Seaborne deliveries from China can take up to six weeks, so the epidemic and related production stops there are hitting the German economy with a time lag.  
Merkel told lawmakers from her conservative bloc that Germany does not need an economic stimulus plan now to counter the impact of the coronavirus but rather liquidity injections. 
Iran announced 43 new deaths from the virus in the past 24 hours, bringing the overall toll to 237 dead, one of the world's highest.
The Islamic Republic confirmed 595 new cases across the country bringing their overall confirmed cases to 7,161.
Globally, more than 110,000 people have been infected with the coronavirus and more than 4,000 have died.


WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS?



Someone who is infected with the coronavirus can spread it with just a simple cough or a sneeze, scientists say.

More than 4,000 people with the virus are now confirmed to have died and more than 110,000 have been infected. Here's what we know so far:

What is the coronavirus?

A coronavirus is a type of virus which can cause illness in animals and people. Viruses break into cells inside their host and use them to reproduce itself and disrupt the body's normal functions. Coronaviruses are named after the Latin word 'corona', which means crown, because they are encased by a spiked shell which resembles a royal crown.

The coronavirus from Wuhan is one which has never been seen before this outbreak. It has been named SARS-CoV-2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses. The name stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2.

Experts say the bug, which has killed around one in 50 patients since the outbreak began in December, is a 'sister' of the SARS illness which hit China in 2002, so has been named after it.

The disease that the virus causes has been named COVID-19, which stands for coronavirus disease 2019.

Dr Helena Maier, from the Pirbright Institute, said: 'Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that infect a wide range of different species including humans, cattle, pigs, chickens, dogs, cats and wild animals.

'Until this new coronavirus was identified, there were only six different coronaviruses known to infect humans. Four of these cause a mild common cold-type illness, but since 2002 there has been the emergence of two new coronaviruses that can infect humans and result in more severe disease (Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses).

'Coronaviruses are known to be able to occasionally jump from one species to another and that is what happened in the case of SARS, MERS and the new coronavirus. The animal origin of the new coronavirus is not yet known.'

The first human cases were publicly reported from the Chinese city of Wuhan, where approximately 11million people live, after medics first started publicly reporting infections on December 31.

By January 8, 59 suspected cases had been reported and seven people were in critical condition. Tests were developed for the new virus and recorded cases started to surge.

The first person died that week and, by January 16, two were dead and 41 cases were confirmed. The next day, scientists predicted that 1,700 people had become infected, possibly up to 7,000.

Just a week after that, there had been more than 800 confirmed cases and those same scientists estimated that some 4,000 – possibly 9,700 – were infected in Wuhan alone. By that point, 26 people had died.

By January 27, more than 2,800 people were confirmed to have been infected, 81 had died, and estimates of the total number of cases ranged from 100,000 to 350,000 in Wuhan alone.

By January 29, the number of deaths had risen to 132 and cases were in excess of 6,000.

By February 5, there were more than 24,000 cases and 492 deaths.

By February 11, this had risen to more than 43,000 cases and 1,000 deaths.

A change in the way cases are confirmed on February 13 – doctors decided to start using lung scans as a formal diagnosis, as well as laboratory tests – caused a spike in the number of cases, to more than 60,000 and to 1,369 deaths.

By February 25, around 80,000 people had been infected and some 2,700 had died. February 25 was the first day in the outbreak when fewer cases were diagnosed within China than in the rest of the world.

Where does the virus come from?

According to scientists, the virus almost certainly came from bats. Coronaviruses in general tend to originate in animals – the similar SARS and MERS viruses are believed to have originated in civet cats and camels, respectively.

The first cases of COVID-19 came from people visiting or working in a live animal market in Wuhan, which has since been closed down for investigation.

Although the market is officially a seafood market, other dead and living animals were being sold there, including wolf cubs, salamanders, snakes, peacocks, porcupines and camel meat.

A study by the Wuhan Institute of Virology, published in February 2020 in the scientific journal Nature, found that the genetic make-up virus samples found in patients in China is 96 per cent identical to a coronavirus they found in bats.

However, there were not many bats at the market so scientists say it was likely there was an animal which acted as a middle-man, contracting it from a bat before then transmitting it to a human. It has not yet been confirmed what type of animal this was.

Dr Michael Skinner, a virologist at Imperial College London, was not involved with the research but said: 'The discovery definitely places the origin of nCoV in bats in China.

'We still do not know whether another species served as an intermediate host to amplify the virus, and possibly even to bring it to the market, nor what species that host might have been.'

So far the fatalities are quite low. Why are health experts so worried about it?

Experts say the international community is concerned about the virus because so little is known about it and it appears to be spreading quickly.

It is similar to SARS, which infected 8,000 people and killed nearly 800 in an outbreak in Asia in 2003, in that it is a type of coronavirus which infects humans' lungs. It is less deadly than SARS, however, which killed around one in 10 people, compared to approximately one in 50 for COVID-19.

Another reason for concern is that nobody has any immunity to the virus because they've never encountered it before. This means it may be able to cause more damage than viruses we come across often, like the flu or common cold.

Speaking at a briefing in January, Oxford University professor, Dr Peter Horby, said: 'Novel viruses can spread much faster through the population than viruses which circulate all the time because we have no immunity to them.

'Most seasonal flu viruses have a case fatality rate of less than one in 1,000 people. Here we're talking about a virus where we don't understand fully the severity spectrum but it's possible the case fatality rate could be as high as two per cent.'

If the death rate is truly two per cent, that means two out of every 100 patients who get it will die.

'My feeling is it's lower,' Dr Horby added. 'We're probably missing this iceberg of milder cases. But that's the current circumstance we're in.

'Two per cent case fatality rate is comparable to the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918 so it is a significant concern globally.'

How does the virus spread?


The illness can spread between people just through coughs and sneezes, making it an extremely contagious infection. And it may also spread even before someone has symptoms.

It is believed to travel in the saliva and even through water in the eyes, therefore close contact, kissing, and sharing cutlery or utensils are all risky.

Originally, people were thought to be catching it from a live animal market in Wuhan city. But cases soon began to emerge in people who had never been there, which forced medics to realise it was spreading from person to person.

There is now evidence that it can spread third hand – to someone from a person who caught it from another person.

What does the virus do to you? What are the symptoms?

Once someone has caught the COVID-19 virus it may take between two and 14 days, or even longer, for them to show any symptoms – but they may still be contagious during this time.

If and when they do become ill, typical signs include a runny nose, a cough, sore throat and a fever (high temperature). The vast majority of patients will recover from these without any issues, and many will need no medical help at all.

In a small group of patients, who seem mainly to be the elderly or those with long-term illnesses, it can lead to pneumonia. Pneumonia is an infection in which the insides of the lungs swell up and fill with fluid. It makes it increasingly difficult to breathe and, if left untreated, can be fatal and suffocate people.

Figures are showing that young children do not seem to be particularly badly affected by the virus, which they say is peculiar considering their susceptibility to flu, but it is not clear why.

What have genetic tests revealed about the virus?

Scientists in China have recorded the genetic sequences of around 19 strains of the virus and released them to experts working around the world.

This allows others to study them, develop tests and potentially look into treating the illness they cause.

Examinations have revealed the coronavirus did not change much – changing is known as mutating – much during the early stages of its spread.

However, the director-general of China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Gao Fu, said the virus was mutating and adapting as it spread through people.

This means efforts to study the virus and to potentially control it may be made extra difficult because the virus might look different every time scientists analyse it.

More study may be able to reveal whether the virus first infected a small number of people then change and spread from them, or whether there were various versions of the virus coming from animals which have developed separately.

How dangerous is the virus?

The virus has a death rate of around two per cent. This is a similar death rate to the Spanish Flu outbreak which, in 1918, went on to kill around 50million people.

Experts have been conflicted since the beginning of the outbreak about whether the true number of people who are infected is significantly higher than the official numbers of recorded cases. Some people are expected to have such mild symptoms that they never even realise they are ill unless they're tested, so only the more serious cases get discovered, making the death toll seem higher than it really is.

However, an investigation into government surveillance in China said it had found no reason to believe this was true.

Dr Bruce Aylward, a World Health Organization official who went on a mission to China, said there was no evidence that figures were only showing the tip of the iceberg, and said recording appeared to be accurate, Stat News reported.
Peter Keck (left), spokesman of the Esslingen district administration, posing from a car to demonstrate how works the new 'Drive-In' virus tests work in Nuertingen on Monday
Peter Keck (left), spokesman of the Esslingen district administration, posing from a car to demonstrate how works the new 'Drive-In' virus tests work in Nuertingen on Monday 

Can the virus be cured?

The COVID-19 virus cannot be cured and it is proving difficult to contain.

Antibiotics do not work against viruses, so they are out of the question. Antiviral drugs can work, but the process of understanding a virus then developing and producing drugs to treat it would take years and huge amounts of money.

No vaccine exists for the coronavirus yet and it's not likely one will be developed in time to be of any use in this outbreak, for similar reasons to the above.

The National Institutes of Health in the US, and Baylor University in Waco, Texas, say they are working on a vaccine based on what they know about coronaviruses in general, using information from the SARS outbreak. But this may take a year or more to develop, according to Pharmaceutical Technology.

Currently, governments and health authorities are working to contain the virus and to care for patients who are sick and stop them infecting other people.

People who catch the illness are being quarantined in hospitals, where their symptoms can be treated and they will be away from the uninfected public.

And airports around the world are putting in place screening measures such as having doctors on-site, taking people's temperatures to check for fevers and using thermal screening to spot those who might be ill (infection causes a raised temperature).

However, it can take weeks for symptoms to appear, so there is only a small likelihood that patients will be spotted up in an airport.

Is this outbreak an epidemic or a pandemic?

The outbreak is an epidemic, which is when a disease takes hold of one community such as a country or region.

Although it has spread to dozens of countries, the outbreak is not yet classed as a pandemic, which is defined by the World Health Organization as the 'worldwide spread of a new disease'.

The head of WHO's global infectious hazard preparedness, Dr Sylvie Briand, said: 'Currently we are not in a pandemic. We are at the phase where it is an epidemic with multiple foci, and we try to extinguish the transmission in each of these foci,' the Guardian reported.

She said that most cases outside of Hubei had been 'spillover' from the epicentre, so the disease wasn't actually spreading actively around the world


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