‘If anyone tells you a date they’re using a crystal ball’: When can we really expect coronavirus to end?

Sophie Gallagher, The Independent•April 4, 2020

Getty Images/iStockphoto

The first case of coronavirus transmitted in the UK was reported on 31 January. A month later there have more than 2,900 deaths across the nation.

In a bid to combat the continued rise in cases, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has advised the public to adopt a policy of “social distancing”, which includes working from home where possible and not undertaking any non-essential travel.

Those with underlying health conditions, people over the age of 70 and pregnant women have also been told that from 21 March they should self-isolate at home for a period of 12 weeks.

But is the government expecting coronavirus to be gone in 12 weeks? Mr Johnson has said he believes the UK can “turn the tide” against the outbreak in three months and “send coronavirus packing” but hasn’t been more specific about how that will be achieved.

Meanwhile the UK’s chief scientific advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance, said “putting absolute timelines on things is not possible” and other reported ways of approaching the outbreak like simply allowing the population to develop "herd immunity", have been described as requiring a much longer lead time – more like a year.

So how long can we really expect the coronavirus outbreak to continue in the UK and what are the proposed exit strategies in order to return to normal life?
When will coronavirus be over?

“It is impossible to put a date on it,” Dr Simon Clarke, professor of cellular microbiology at the University of Reading tells The Independent. “If anyone tells you a date they are staring into a crystal ball. The reality is that it will be with us forever because it has spread now.”

Dr Clarke says it is particularly challenging because it can reside in people without showing any symptoms and then go on to be spread by that person. “There is no reason to say [the virus] won’t continue to do this in the future”.

The scale of this pandemic is unprecedented in living memory..."
Professor Robert Dingwall

Dr Jenna Macciochi, a lecturer in immunology at the University of Sussex agrees it is hard to estimate a date: “It’s a question we probably all want to know the answer to and I doubt anyone knows for sure as it depends on many factors. I’d say we don’t currently know.”

Robert Dingwall, professor of social sciences at Nottingham Trent University describes the situation as being “impossible to give any scientifically-justifiable timetable”.

Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at Southampton University, says estimates are made particularly difficult because coronavirus is a novel virus. “The difficulty with any modelling or future predictions is this is an entirely new virus, and the scale of this pandemic is unprecedented in living memory.

"The extent of globalisation and international connectivity is such that the ‘end game’ is so difficult to predict with any certainty.” Although Head does say he hopes in the “next few months” cases can be limited and “reduced to much lower levels”.

“However, come the winter, there are significant concerns about a sharp increase in coronavirus cases. This could coincide with the start of flu season and is a time when hospitals and GPs are traditionally under even more pressure,” he adds.

Could a lockdown reduce the spread?

In other European countries such as Italy, authorities have implemented much stricter measures to combat the spread, placing everyone under lockdown and only allowing small numbers of people to leave the house in the case of emergencies or obtaining food and medicine.

Would such a measure work in the UK for shortening the lifespan of coronavirus? Dr Macciochi says curbing the virus in this way will depend on how well strategies are taken up by people.

“But even then once we put these actions into place, we have no idea how long for,” she says. “And if we let people go back to normal too quickly then it could backfire. If we did complete lockdown for a short period there is still a chance it wouldn’t be enough.”
Could we get a vaccine for coronavirus?

The UK’s chief medical adviser Professor Chris Whitty has said “long term, clearly a vaccine is one way out of this and we all hope that will happen as quickly as possible”.

Dr Clarke agrees that the key to combating the coronavirus will be the development of a vaccine. “That is what is going to control things. We can develop ways of controlling symptoms too but they only treat, they don’t get rid of it.”

The first person to be given an experimental coronavirus vaccine in the USA happened last week after researchers were given permission to skip the usual animal testing phase.

If vaccines are given to enough of the population (more than 60 per cent) the country will develop what is known as ‘herd immunity’ meaning the virus cannot spread so easily in the future. This herd immunity can also be (controversially) achieved by just allowing the virus to spread widely and letting individual immune systems build up a response to the virus.

Professor Dingwall says: “Coronavirus will be endemic in human populations (like seasonal influenza) until there is a safe and effective vaccine, which can be used on a mass scale to squeeze it out.

“We have done this with smallpox and are close to doing it with polio. Good progress would have been made with measles if it hadn’t been for the recent anti-vax campaigns,” he adds.

But Dr Clarke warns this isn’t as simple as it sounds. “With vaccines you have to generate an immune response that is protective enough – any old immune response won’t do. It has to be able to protect against subsequent infections when that happens.

“Of course [the vaccine] also has to be safe and it has to be long lasting enough. It is pointless giving people immunity for a couple of months.”

He says there is then the additional problem of manufacturing the vaccine in sufficient quantities and quickly enough. “I remind people we’ve been trying to find a vaccine for HIV for the best part of 40 years,” he says.

Professor Macciochi and Mr Head estimate the vaccine could take anywhere between 12 and 18 months to enter the market.

“It could fail at any part during trial,” adds Dr Clarke.

Are there any other solutions?

Professor Macciochi says much of the next few weeks will involve “watching and waiting” the way other countries around the world handle the pandemic – to see how they respond and the outcomes of their strategies.

“I believe things are starting to get better in China and [we] can look to other viruses for clues, but it is spreading quicker than similar viruses so looking inevitable that it will be sticking around for a while,” she explains.

Mr Head says for the time being the government strategy needs to include greater testing of people in the UK: “[We need] improved diagnostics, particularly a widespread ability to test those who have already been infected.

"[It] would greatly help with the response efforts, and we hope to see these in the UK and other countries over the coming weeks,” he says.

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'Act as though it's going to be a lot longer': American in Wuhan warns U.S. over lockdowns

Keir Simmons and Yuliya Talmazan, NBC News•April 3, 2020

AT A CANADIAN PRESS CONFERENCE APRIL 2 THE ONTARIO PUBLIC HEALTH CHIEF DOCTOR ANNOUNCED THAT THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK COULD LAST FROM A YEAR TO EIGHTEEN MONTHS LONG.

An American who spent more than two months locked down in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus epidemic first emerged, is urging people back home to prepare for a lengthy interruption to their lives.

“Don't go into this thinking it's going to be over in a few weeks,” Benjamin Wilson told NBC News from his apartment in Wuhan where he and his family spent eight weeks in confinement.

After initially experiencing problems getting evacuated back to the U.S., Wilson, 38, chose to stay in the city where he has lived for more than 16 years, with his Chinese wife, Li Qin, and seven-year-old daughter Jasmin as it went into lockdown in late January.

For six out of the eight weeks that the family spent cooped up inside, they could not leave their apartment at all, relying on delivery services for their daily needs.

“No one would have anticipated that it would be this long,” said Wilson, originally from Alexandria, Louisiana.

Image: A woman wearing a face mask pedals along a street in Wuhan, in China's central Hubei province (Noel Celis / AFP - Getty Images)

As the virus spread outside of China, infecting nearly a million people around the world, a number of European nations have entered nationwide lockdowns.

In the U.S., which now has the world's highest number of cases, no federal quarantine has been enacted although a number of states have imposed "shelter in place" orders.

Wilson warned Americans they should be be prepared to be in it for the long haul.

“Act as though it's going to be a lot longer from the beginning — financially pace yourself, physically try to set up a routine, keep some kind of schedule with exercise, with your children’s education and just prepare for it to be a lot longer.”

For more than two months, Wuhan residents faced draconian restrictions, with all movement in, out and around the industrial city of 11 million people blocked.

But in recent days, Wuhan has been showing signs of going back to normal.

With its subway and train service resuming this weekend, some businesses, supermarkets and shopping malls have also re-opened their doors, hoping for customers to start trickling in. Travel restrictions are also expected to be lifted on April 8.

But despite restrictions easing off, Wilson said there has been a shift in the psyche of Wuhan’s residents, with few rushing to go outside or take their masks off.

“People are still in a quarantine mindset and I don't know how many weeks or months they are going to continue to behave as though there's still an imminent threat, even though we might have almost no infections,” he said. “There's always a fear that it's not actually under control, that it could re-emerge.”

The reopening of Wuhan marks a turning point in China’s fight against the virus, with nearly no domestic new cases reported in recent days and the majority of new infections coming from abroad. But lingering questions about whether the city has completely stemmed the epidemic are not making the return to the normal easy.

Wilson expects it could be months before life gets back to what it used to be before the outbreak despite Chinese government’s optimistic outlook and eagerness to reignite the economy.

“I myself don't really have a clear bright line for when I would say it's safe, that I don't need to wear a mask anymore or socially distance myself,” he said. “I'm not sure any newspaper or any government could just tell me that and I would believe it.”

“I think that it’s going to be a very slow transition,” he added.