Monday, October 19, 2020

Morales aide claims victory in Bolivia’s presidential vote
By CARLOS VALDEZ and JOSHUA GOODMAN

1 of 13

Luis Arce, center, Bolivian presidential candidate for the Movement Towards Socialism Party, MAS, and running mate David Choquehuanca, second right, celebrate during a press conference where they claim victory after general elections in La Paz, Bolivia, Monday, Oct. 19, 2020. (AP Photo/Juan Karita)


LA PAZ, Bolivia (AP) — Evo Morales’ party claimed victory in a presidential election that appeared to reject the right-wing policies of the interim government that took power in Bolivia after the leftist leader resigned and fled the country a year ago.

Officials released no formal, comprehensive quick count of results from Sunday’s vote, but two independent surveys of selected polling places showed Morales’ handpicked successor, Luis Arce, with a lead of roughly 20 percentage points over his closest rival — far more than needed to avoid a runoff.

“We still have no official count, but according to the data we have, Mr. Arce (and his running mate) have won the election,” interim President Jeanine Áñez — an archrival of Morales — said on Twitter. “I congratulate the winners and I ask them to govern with Bolivia and democracy in mind.”

Arce, meanwhile, appealed for calm in the bitterly divided nation saying he would seek to form a government of national unity under his Movement Toward Socialism party.

“I think the Bolivian people want to retake the path we were on,” Arce declared around midnight surrounded by a small group of supporters, some of them in traditional Andean dress in honor of the country’s Indigenous roots.

Pre-election polls had showed Arce ahead but lacking enough votes to avoid a November runoff, likely against centrist former President Carlos Mesa. To win in the first round, a candidate needs more than 50% of the vote, or 40% with a lead of at least 10 percentage points over the second-place candidate.

The independent counts showed Arce with a little over 50% of the vote and a roughly 20 point advantage over Mesa.

Even so, early returns — with 16% counted — from the formal official count had Mesa with a 44% to 35% lead over Arce on Monday. Those votes appeared to be largely from urban areas rather than the rural heartlands that have been the base of Morales’ support.

Arce, who oversaw a surge in growth and a sharp reduction in poverty as Morales’ economy minister for more than a decade, will face an uphill battle trying to reignite that growth.

The boom in prices for Bolivia’s mineral exports that helped feed that progress has faded, and the new coronavirus has hit the impoverished, landlocked Bolivia harder than almost any other country on a per capita basis. Nearly 8,400 of its 11.6 million people have died of COVID-19.

Arce also faces the challenge of emerging from the long shadow of his former boss, who remains polarizing but whose support enabled the low-key, UK-educated economist to mount a strong campaign.

Áñez.s government tried to overturn many of Morales’ policies and wrench the country away from its leftist alliances. Newly installed electoral authorities barred Morales from running in Sunday’s election, even for a seat in congress, and he faces prosecution on what are seen as trumped-up charges of terrorism if he returns home.

Few expect the sometimes-irascible politician to sit by idly in a future Arce government.

Bolivia, once one of the most politically volatile countries in Latin America, experienced a rare period of stability for 14 years under Morales, the country’s first Indigenous president.

A boyhood llama herder who became prominent leading a coca grower’s union, Morales had been immensely popular while overseeing an export-led economic surge. But support was eroding due to his reluctance to leave power, increasing authoritarian impulses and a series of corruption scandals.

He shrugged aside a public vote that had set term limits, and competed in the October 2019 presidential vote, which he claimed to have narrowly won outright. But a lengthy pause in reporting results fed suspicions of fraud and nationwide protests followed, leading to the deaths of at least 36 people.

When police and military leaders suggested he leave, Morales resigned and fled the country, along with several key aides. Morales called his ouster a coup.

Hoping to avoid similar confusion this time, electoral authorities said they would not release a quick count of results — merely the slow-moving official tally that they said could take five days.

All seats in the 136-member Legislative Assembly also were also being contested, with results expected to echo the presidential race.

“Bolivia’s new executive and legislative leaders will face daunting challenges in a polarized country, ravaged by COVID-19, and hampered by endemically weak institutions,” said the Washington Office on Latin America, a Washington-based human rights advocacy organization.

Morales led Bolivia from 2006 until 2019 and was the last survivor of the so-called “pink wave” of leftist leaders that swept into power across South America, including Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez.

Although outrage with corruption fueled a resurgence in right-wing politics, notably in Brazil, Arce’s victory is bound to reenergize the left, whose anthem of economic justice has broad appeal in a region where poverty is expected to surge to 37% this year, according to the United Nations.

Arce may have benefited from overreach and errors by Morales’ enemies. Áñez, a conservative senator, proclaimed herself interim president amid last year’s tumult and was accepted by the courts. Her administration, despite lacking a majority in congress, set about trying to prosecute Morales and key aides while undoing his policies, prompting more unrest and polarization.

“A lot of people said if this is the alternative being offered, I prefer to go back to the way things were,” said Andres Gomez, a political scientist based in La Paz.

Áñez dropped out at as a candidate for Sunday’s presidential election while trailing badly in polls. That boosted Mesa, who governed Bolivia following the resignation in 2003 of former President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada amid widespread protests.

The Trump administration, which celebrated Morales’ departure as a watershed moment for democracy in Latin America, has been more cautious as Morales’ handpicked successor surged in the polls. A senior State Department official this week said the U.S. is ready to work with whomever Bolivians select in a free and fair vote.

___

Goodman reported from Medellin, Colombia. AP writer Paola Flores contributed to this report from La Paz.

Bolivian socialist candidate Arce set to win election outright, exit poll shows


Issued on: 19/10/2020 - 

Text by:FRANCE 24Follow|

Video by: Alexander AUCOTT



Bolivia's socialist candidate Luis Arce looks set to win the country's presidential election without the need for a run-off, an unofficial count indicated on Monday, putting the leftwing party of Evo Morales on the brink of a return to power.

The quick-count from pollster Ciesmori, released by Bolivian TV channel Unitel around midnight on Sunday, showed Arce had 52.4 percent of valid votes, more than 20 percentage points above the second-place centrist rival Carlos Mesa, who had 31.5 percent.

The official count had reached just five percent of votes cast, and exit polls had been delayed hours after polls closed, leaving Bolivians in the dark about the election result. A candidate needs 40 percent of the votes and a 10-point lead to win outright.

"All the data known so far indicate that there has been a victory for the Movement towards Socialism," Morales, who handpicked Arce and has been closely advising the campaign, said in a press conference in Buenos Aires.

Arce, a former economy minister under Morales, sounded confident of victory without explicitly claiming the win at his own press conference shortly after midnight in the Bolivian capital La Paz.

"We are going to work, and we will resume the process of change without hate," Arce told reporters. "We will learn and we will overcome the mistakes we've made (before) as the Movement Toward Socialism party."

Muy agradecidos con el apoyo y confianza del pueblo boliviano. Recuperamos la democracia y retomaremos la estabilidad y la paz social. Unidos, con dignidad y soberanía #VamosASalirAdelante pic.twitter.com/vFO9Mr1o44— Luis Arce Catacora (Lucho Arce) (@LuchoXBolivia) October 19, 2020

"Very grateful for the support and trust of the Bolivian people," Arce posted to Twitter on Monday. "We have recovered democracy and we will regain stability and social peace. United, with dignity and sovereignty."

Conducted amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, Sunday's poll was regarded as a test of democracy in the Andean nation after last year's election was annulled following allegations of vote rigging, which sparked bloody protests and led to Morales quitting after almost 14 years in power.

Jeanine Anez, the conservative interim president who took over in a power vacuum last year, said that it appeared Arce was the election winner and offered her congratulations.

The election outcome, if confirmed, is chastening for the country's conservatives and will likely bolster the image of Morales, the socialist indigenous leader whose shadow still looms large over the country despite him living in exile in Argentina since last year's disputed election.

Morales returns?

Morales was an iconic and long-lasting figure in a wave of leftist presidents in the region over the last two decades, and the Bolivian election is a litmus test of the left's abiding clout in Latin America.

"The vote is set to be the most important since Bolivia returned to democracy in 1982," Carlos Valverde, a political analyst, said earlier in the day.

On Sunday, residents of La Paz, a city starkly divided by class and race, had voted peacefully but faced long lines meant to avoid overcrowding inside voting locations. Many had said they worried the election result could lead to more violence.

"I hope everything turns out peacefully and that the next government can also provide the solutions that all Bolivians are hoping for," said David Villarroel, voting in La Paz.

(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS and AFP)

Bolivians elect new president after year of post-Morales upheaval

Issued on: 16/10/2020 - 
People wear protective masks as they line up to cast their vote at a polling station in La Paz, Bolivia's capital, on October 18, 2020. © David Mercado, REUTERS

Text by:Tom WHEELDON|

Video by:FRANCE 24Follow

Bolivia votes in the first round of presidential elections on Sunday – 12 months after disputed polls sparked mass protests and the downfall of the country’s controversial leftist leader Evo Morales. FRANCE 24 takes a look back at the Latin American country’s year of turbulence.

The frontrunners are centrist ex-president Carlos Mesa and Luis Arce, Morales’ anointed successor and candidate for his left-wing MAS party. Polling data predicts that Arce will come out on top in the October 18 first round – but without the 40 percent vote share and 10 point lead required to avoid a runoff on November 29.

Analysts forecast Mesa triumphing in the second round, propelled over the line by the “anyone but MAS” slogan popular among much of Bolivia’s middle class. The five other candidates, lagging in the polls, are all expected to back Mesa.

“While the margin will be close, we remain of the view that Mesa will take the race to a 29 November runoff, which he would be favoured to win,” Filipe Gruppelli Carvalho, Bolivia analyst at consulting firm Eurasia Group, told Agence France-Presse.

‘Clear manipulation’ of last year’s vote

These presidential elections come one year after Morales claimed a fourth term in October 2019. Fears of a stolen vote emerged when officials suddenly stopped releasing results hours after polls closed. The tally was putting Morales ahead of Mesa, his closest challenger, but well short of the lead he needed to avoid a second round. A day later, the electoral commission abruptly sent out new figures showing Morales just 0.7 points shy of the threshold to win on the first round.

Mesa accused Morales of engaging in “monumental fraud”. Morales accused Mesa of using foreign support to wage a coup d’état. Nationwide protests broke out, with anti-government protesters storming two state-run media outlets, accusing them of being in Morales’ pocket. An audit by the Organisation of American States on November 9 uncovered “clear manipulation” of the count.

Morales resigned the next day, claiming political asylum in Mexico as clashes between his supporters and opponents continued to rage on the streets of the capital La Paz. Now living in Argentina, the former president continues to accuse “putschists” of illegitimately kyboshing his re-election.

The ex-president is no stranger to controversy. In a 2016 plebiscite, Bolivians narrowly rejected a proposed constitutional amendment that would have enabled him to run for a fourth term. The Supreme Court overturned that vote in a fiercely disputed decision, ruling that the constitution violated Morales’ human rights in blocking him from seeking another term. “Morales had firm control over the state’s main institutions, and it was pretty clear that manipulation was going on,” said Colin Harding, director of specialist publication Latinform.

The referendum affair tarnished the considerable international reputation Morales had built since becoming Bolivia’s first indigenous president in 2006. The country’s GDP expanded at more than 4 percent per year during his thirteen-year reign, as the resource-rich nation reaped a global commodity boom.

“Morales really benefitted from beneficial economic circumstances; high commodity prices helped very much,” Harding noted. At the same time, he continued, Maduro’s “economic policies were not nearly as radical as his rhetoric, and he did well to attract a lot of foreign investment”.

‘Anez really didn’t help’

Soon after Morales’ ouster, it was his right-wing opponents who stood accused of an illicit power-grab. Jeanine Anez, a conservative vice-president of the Senate, declared herself acting president on November 13. Anez was fifth in the line of succession, but those above her had stood down – although some Morales loyalists then tried to annul their resignations. She took office despite the lack of parliamentary quorum, caused by MAS parliamentarians’ boycott of the vote to appoint her.

The day after taking office, Anez announced that elections were forthcoming, without specifying a date. She added that Morales would be barred due to his unconstitutional decision to stand for a fourth term. Demonstrations rumbled on over the following weeks, this time as Morales supporters rallied to demand Anez’s resignation. The deadly protests prompted Bolivia’s influential Catholic Church to demand that the two sides meet for negotiations.

In December, Bolivian prosecutors brought charges against the exiled Morales on grounds of “sedition” and “terrorism”, accusing him of ordering his supporters to engage in street violence. Later the same month, Morales’ then host Mexico accused Bolivia of “intimidating” embassy staff working in La Paz after the Mexican government gave diplomatic protection to nine of Morales’ former ministers who faced criminal charges.

Ex-colonial power Spain was caught up in the imbroglio when its diplomats visited the Mexican ambassador’s residence in La Paz, accompanied by masked men. The Bolivian government expelled two Spanish diplomats and the Mexican ambassador after accusing Spain of trying to help the nine ex-ministers flee the country.

Upon taking office in November, Anez said she was uninterested in standing for president in the upcoming elections. In early January, she named a date for the polls: May 3. Later the same month, she reneged on her earlier statement and announced her candidacy. Anez’s communications minister Roxana Lizarraga resigned, saying that she had “lost sight of her objectives” and had “started to fall into the same evils” as her predecessor Morales. Hours later, Anez asked all of her ministers to resign.

“Anez really didn’t help matters,” Harding said. “She was an obscure politician who quickly emerged at the height of government, who found that she rather liked it there and didn’t want to return to obscurity.”

‘Extreme polarisation’

Then the coronavirus struck. Anez imposed a two-week lockdown on March 21 – and announced the postponement of the May elections to September 6. Covid-19 hit Bolivia relatively hard. The countries has recorded more than 8,000 deaths and some 137,000 cases out of a population of 11.6 million people – facing shortages of tests, protective equipment and intensive care beds, with what has been a rickety health system since Morales’ tenure.

Anez announced that she had tested positive along with seven of her ministers in early July. Two weeks later, her government announced a second election delay, this time until October 18. This provoked a further round of protests, with Morales supporters blocking roads across Bolivia. The government said this caused the deaths of at least 30 people by obstructing oxygen supplies to hospitals. Anez failed to improve her popularity ratings in the polls during this period. Consequently, she announced her withdrawal from the presidential race on September 18.

Sunday’s polls will be watched closely for any sign of impropriety. On Friday, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet implored all actors involved in the elections to ensure a fair and peaceful vote – adding that the elections “represent an opportunity to really move forward on social and economic fronts, and to defuse the extreme polarisation that has been plaguing Bolivia over the past few years”.


No comments:

Post a Comment