Analysis |
Killing Iran’s Nuke Chief May Hurt Israel More Than He Ever Did in His Life

There are two possible explanations to the timing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh’s killing. Both are tied to Biden’s inauguration on January 20, and both are extremely high-risk

Students of Iran's Basij paramilitary force set to burn U.S. and Israeli flags during a rally, Tehran, November 28, 2020

Credit: ATTA KENARE - AFP


Anshel Pfeffer 

HAARETZ.COM

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, leader and key coordinator of Iran’s nuclear research, was assassinated north of Tehran on Friday morning, suffering a fate similar to other figures involved in Iran's nuclear program.

Fakhrizadeh has been a potential target for Israel, as well as other nations, for over a decade. It’s possible that the necessary intelligence and operational moment presented itself only now, but given the timing, it’s more likely that the unique window of opportunity was created by diplomatic circumstances.

Two assumptions have guided the work of Israeli intelligence in recent weeks. The first is that Iran will not embark on a drastic course until the regime has a clear idea of the Biden administration’s exact policy regarding a return to the 2015 nuclear agreement. The second is that there is a very low probability that Trump would launch a military campaign against Iran before he leaves office, as there are no signs of the United States boosting its defenses in the region ahead of a possibility of Iranian retaliation.

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But the Israeli military is not blasé about the prospect of a rapid escalation. In October, the military carried out a comprehensive exercise simulating the launch of long-range Iranian missiles at Israel. And as officers have sought to stress in recent days, even after the killing of Fakhrizadeh, while a full-blown military conflict is unlikely, the ongoing clandestine war has been stepped up.

ATTEMPTS TO UNDERMINE IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM

JANUARY 12, 2010

Senior Iranian nuclear scientist Prof. Massoud Ali Mohammadi assassinated in northern Tehran

SEPTEMBER 2010

A computer virus known as "Stuxnet" deployed against the operating systems of the Nantanz nuclear reactor

OCTOBER 29. 2010

The most senior scientist in the Iranian nuclear program at the time, Prof. Majid Shahariari, and another nuclear scientist are killed in two separate assassinations in Tehran 

JULY 23, 2011

A physics professor involved in the Iranian nuclear program is killed by gunmen on motorcycles in Tehran

JANUARY 11, 2012

A chemistry expert who also served as deputy director of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility was killed in an explosion in Tehran

JANUARY 31, 2018

Israel broke into a warehouse where documents from the Iranian nuclear program were hidden on the outskirts of Tehran and stole tens of thousands of secret documents

JUNE 26, 2020

Explosions rock Parchin, home to a military base where it was previously said that Iran conducts tests of explosive triggers that could be used in nuclear weapons
JUNE 30, 2020

An explosion at a missile production facility in Khojir, not far from Perchin, a base surrounded by underground tunnels believed by the West to have served as a large ammunitions depot. The base produces fuels to propel the Revolutionary Guards' ballistic missile apparatus. 

JULY 2, 2020

Explosion at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility damages a structure containing advanced centrifuges. In the West, the explosion is attributed to Israel, and it is estimated that Iran's nuclear program is set back by one to two years as a result of the blast

JULY 19, 2020

Blast reported at a power plant in Isfahan, in central Iran

JULY 28, 2020

According to a report by the Iranian Student News Agency, an explosion of fuel tanks caused a fire in the Dolat industrial zone in the Kermanshah province in western Iran. The deputy commander of the province's firefighting services reported several injuries but no casaulties

NOVEMBER 27, 2020

Leader and key coordinator of Iran's nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, is assasinated near Tehran

If Israel is indeed behind the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, there will be no official confirmation in the foreseeable future. U.S. President Donald Trump, however, retweeted comments on the assassination by Haaretz colleague Yossi Melman, which many interpreted to mean that the killing was orchestrated by Israel with a hearty American blessing. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, cryptically referred to “things I can’t tell you” in a video he uploaded this weekend.

There are two likely backstories to the timing behind the assassination. One, that Israel had opportunities in the past to kill Fakhrizadeh but refrained from doing so, either because it didn’t have American backing or because it saw no need to rock the boat. The regime in Israel, like in Tehran, is unclear about Biden’s Iran policy, and thus decided to take advantage of Trump’s last days in power.

The second explanation is that Israel assassinated Fakhrizadeh at the request of the United States. Israel may have possessed the capabilities and intel to kill him for a while but wasn’t eager to, fearing severe repercussions, and because ultimately the death of one man, albeit the “Father,” would do little damage to an already-advanced nuclear program. In this scenario, Israel acted at the urging of the Iran hawks in the Trump administration who are trying to make it harder for their successors to engage with Iran.

There is recent precedent for this in the killing of Al-Qaida leader Abu Muhammad al-Masri this August in Tehran, which according to The New York Times, was carried out by Mossad, at the CIA’s request. Israeli intelligence officials have stated that normally, al-Masri wouldn’t be seen as a target worthy of the considerable resources and risk involved in an assassination in Tehran, but when the Americans ask, Israel says yes.

Both possibilities involve a troubling degree of risk. If Netanyahu, his Mossad Chief Yossi Cohen and whatever cabinet ministers are in on the secret believe that now is the time to take out high-value targets, then they are banking firstly on the Iranians to self-restrain, for fear of either provoking Trump or missing out on a new deal with Biden, and secondly on Joe Biden’s team to draw a line under what happened before he came to office.

Is this assassination (or any other operation in Netanyahu’s repertoire) worth the risk that the more cautious members in Iran's leadership may lose the argument and decide to retaliate after all? And once the window of opportunity closes on January 20, will Joe Biden and his staff shut Israel out of consultations, having had enough of Netanyahu dictating U.S policy? If so, Fakhrizadeh may end up causing more damage to Israel in his death than he ever did in his life.