It would take a series of unforeseen events for Republicans to win, but 2020 has been a year for the unprecedented, writes Lorcan Nyhan
Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Lorcan Nyhan, November 01 2029
"Election Outcome Highly Uncertain" - New York Times headline, US election day, 1952.
Back in 1952, Republican candidate Dwight D Eisenhower was on the ballot against the Democratic Party's liberal champion Adlai Stevenson.
Burned by inaccurate polls in 1948 and the subsequent erroneous election night prediction on the Chicago Tribune's front page - "Dewey defeats Truman" - the press were wary to predict the result.
The former Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces, Ike Eisenhower, won that election in a landslide, capturing 55pc of the popular vote, 39 states and 442 out of 538 Electoral College votes.
The Republican dominated in the fast-growing suburbs and even flipped the city of Chicago - a Democratic stronghold.
Accepted wisdom points to a similarly comfortable Joe Biden victory this Tuesday. Biden is all but certain to win the popular vote by a considerable margin.
The final YouGov poll has him with an 11-point lead over Donald Trump; 54pc to 43pc. Their corresponding final 2016 poll had Hillary Clinton four points ahead; only two points off her eventual popular vote figure.
Biden's average lead with FiveThirtyEight is nine points. The polling site's electoral model has him with an 89pc chance of an Electoral College victory, while The Economist is even more bullish, giving Biden a 97pc chance.
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The certainty of these models is driven by his national lead but also his strength across swing states. Biden has a commanding lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - an average of 8.1, 8.5 and 5.2 points respectively.
The former vice president also has slimmer but stable polling leads in Arizona (up 3.5), Florida (up 2.1) and North Carolina (up 2.3).
Democratic insiders are loath to admit it publicly, but Biden also has a chance in Republican strongholds like Georgia (where he's up 1.7) and Texas, where Trump is just one point ahead, despite carrying the state by nine in 2016.
The final campaign stops of the Biden-Harris ticket reveal they think they're on the road to a special victory.
Biden is solidifying his vote with visits to Wisconsin but is also including a final stop in Georgia.
Kamala Harris is spending time in Arizona and Texas, hoping to boost turnout in key areas.
You don't spend time in states like Georgia and Texas in the final week if you don't feel they are in reach.
Democrats have good reason for optimism. The US is heading for a historic turnout, and high voting numbers traditionally leads to Democratic success.
Trump was a transformative candidate, but his total vote was similar to that of previous Republican candidates. Since 2000, the Republican candidate, from Bush through to Trump, has always won about 60 million votes. Democrats win when they massively boost turnout on their side.
Early voting figures in America, driven by increased access, have been staggering - 82 million people have already voted.
Given that polling tells us half of voters intend to cast their ballots in person, the eventual turnout could reach 160 million or higher. The total electorate in 2016 was 136 million.
It would take a series of unforeseen and unprecedented events for Trump to win - but 2020 is the year for unforeseen and unprecedented events.
Unshakable confidence in a prediction when faced with several unknowns is rash. Just as rational analysis plots a path toward a dominant Biden victory, a path to a narrow Electoral College victory for Trump can still be found. Taken state by state, and assuming a polling error greater than 2016, successful voter suppression tactics and a turnout boost for Republicans, you can make an argument for Trump holding Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Positive results in these states would get him to 270 Electoral College votes. Not a likely result, but a possible one.
Of these swing states, four should demand your attention - Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Texas - as having the potential to encapsulate the story of the election.
With a tradition of postal voting, Florida will declare its result relatively early. If Biden wins the Sunshine State, the race becomes extremely difficult for Trump and so the election narrative would be cemented early.
Pennsylvania, meanwhile, was key to Trump's 2016 success. A Republican win here would sow doubts in the accuracy of state-level polling and mean Biden would have to secure states where his polling is tighter.
Florida and Pennsylvania were always going to be battleground states. Arizona and Texas are more interesting.
Since it went for Eisenhower in 1952, Arizona has voted Republican in every election except when it broke for Bill Clinton in 1996.
Biden is likely to win Arizona. As a traditionally Republican state, no history for Democratic bias in polls exists and so his lead should be borne out. And if the Democrats are even close to carrying Texas for the first time since 1976, it's a sure sign we have a landslide on our hands and a stunning rebuke of Trump-ism across America.
Like 1952, many are reticent to call the election. And a Trump victory is obviously still possible. But, given the information to hand, this election result is far from uncertain.
Biden is heading for an Eisenhower-esque election - a 55pc+ popular vote victory, a comfortable Electoral College win and the potential for a party to make inroads into the traditional heartland of its opponents.
Anything else would be a historic surprise and a Democratic failure.
Lorcan Nyhan, November 01 2029
"Election Outcome Highly Uncertain" - New York Times headline, US election day, 1952.
Back in 1952, Republican candidate Dwight D Eisenhower was on the ballot against the Democratic Party's liberal champion Adlai Stevenson.
Burned by inaccurate polls in 1948 and the subsequent erroneous election night prediction on the Chicago Tribune's front page - "Dewey defeats Truman" - the press were wary to predict the result.
The former Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces, Ike Eisenhower, won that election in a landslide, capturing 55pc of the popular vote, 39 states and 442 out of 538 Electoral College votes.
The Republican dominated in the fast-growing suburbs and even flipped the city of Chicago - a Democratic stronghold.
Accepted wisdom points to a similarly comfortable Joe Biden victory this Tuesday. Biden is all but certain to win the popular vote by a considerable margin.
The final YouGov poll has him with an 11-point lead over Donald Trump; 54pc to 43pc. Their corresponding final 2016 poll had Hillary Clinton four points ahead; only two points off her eventual popular vote figure.
Biden's average lead with FiveThirtyEight is nine points. The polling site's electoral model has him with an 89pc chance of an Electoral College victory, while The Economist is even more bullish, giving Biden a 97pc chance.
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The certainty of these models is driven by his national lead but also his strength across swing states. Biden has a commanding lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - an average of 8.1, 8.5 and 5.2 points respectively.
The former vice president also has slimmer but stable polling leads in Arizona (up 3.5), Florida (up 2.1) and North Carolina (up 2.3).
Democratic insiders are loath to admit it publicly, but Biden also has a chance in Republican strongholds like Georgia (where he's up 1.7) and Texas, where Trump is just one point ahead, despite carrying the state by nine in 2016.
The final campaign stops of the Biden-Harris ticket reveal they think they're on the road to a special victory.
Biden is solidifying his vote with visits to Wisconsin but is also including a final stop in Georgia.
Kamala Harris is spending time in Arizona and Texas, hoping to boost turnout in key areas.
You don't spend time in states like Georgia and Texas in the final week if you don't feel they are in reach.
Democrats have good reason for optimism. The US is heading for a historic turnout, and high voting numbers traditionally leads to Democratic success.
Trump was a transformative candidate, but his total vote was similar to that of previous Republican candidates. Since 2000, the Republican candidate, from Bush through to Trump, has always won about 60 million votes. Democrats win when they massively boost turnout on their side.
Early voting figures in America, driven by increased access, have been staggering - 82 million people have already voted.
Given that polling tells us half of voters intend to cast their ballots in person, the eventual turnout could reach 160 million or higher. The total electorate in 2016 was 136 million.
It would take a series of unforeseen and unprecedented events for Trump to win - but 2020 is the year for unforeseen and unprecedented events.
Unshakable confidence in a prediction when faced with several unknowns is rash. Just as rational analysis plots a path toward a dominant Biden victory, a path to a narrow Electoral College victory for Trump can still be found. Taken state by state, and assuming a polling error greater than 2016, successful voter suppression tactics and a turnout boost for Republicans, you can make an argument for Trump holding Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Positive results in these states would get him to 270 Electoral College votes. Not a likely result, but a possible one.
Of these swing states, four should demand your attention - Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Texas - as having the potential to encapsulate the story of the election.
With a tradition of postal voting, Florida will declare its result relatively early. If Biden wins the Sunshine State, the race becomes extremely difficult for Trump and so the election narrative would be cemented early.
Pennsylvania, meanwhile, was key to Trump's 2016 success. A Republican win here would sow doubts in the accuracy of state-level polling and mean Biden would have to secure states where his polling is tighter.
Florida and Pennsylvania were always going to be battleground states. Arizona and Texas are more interesting.
Since it went for Eisenhower in 1952, Arizona has voted Republican in every election except when it broke for Bill Clinton in 1996.
Biden is likely to win Arizona. As a traditionally Republican state, no history for Democratic bias in polls exists and so his lead should be borne out. And if the Democrats are even close to carrying Texas for the first time since 1976, it's a sure sign we have a landslide on our hands and a stunning rebuke of Trump-ism across America.
Like 1952, many are reticent to call the election. And a Trump victory is obviously still possible. But, given the information to hand, this election result is far from uncertain.
Biden is heading for an Eisenhower-esque election - a 55pc+ popular vote victory, a comfortable Electoral College win and the potential for a party to make inroads into the traditional heartland of its opponents.
Anything else would be a historic surprise and a Democratic failure.
Lorcan Nyhan is head of training at The Communications Clinic
THE INDEPENDENT, IRELAND
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