COLD WAR 2.0 BRRRRRRR

How Russia, China, and climate change are shaking up the Arctic

New Atlanticist by Larry Luxner

TUE, MAR 23, 2021

U.S. marines of Fox Company, 2nd Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment, part of Marine Rotational Force - Europe take part in "Reindeer 2", a Norwegian-U.S. military drill, in Setermoen, Norway, October 29, 2019. REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov

The Kremlin’s increasing military activities in the Arctic are worrying Norway—the only NATO member country that borders Russia north of the Arctic Circle.

Frank Bakke-Jensen, Norway’s minister of defense, outlined his concerns during a March 19 conference “Looking North: Conference on Security in the Arctic,” hosted by the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

“Russian armed forces have significantly modernized during the last ten to twelve years. Its capabilities are increasingly integrated, giving Russia more flexibility,” he said. “The Russians have modernized their underwater capabilities. They’ve improved their ability to deploy troops rapidly over great distances. Russia is now also more capable in terms of conventional long-range precision weapons. Together, this reduces the warning time for NATO countries to hours and days.”

Also concerning are stepped-up Russian maritime activities just off Norway’s coast, he said. Russia recently started using its new airbase on Franz Josef Land, an archipelago in the Arctic Ocean. From this location, “Russia is now able to conduct air operations over vast areas in the Arctic,” Bakke-Jensen warned. “This Russian ability to reduce NATO’s freedom of movement is particularly worrying for transatlantic security.”

At the same time, he added, “China’s interest in the Arctic is increasing. China has defined itself as a near-Arctic state, and we expect it to be more active there in the future. China is also strengthening its icebreaking capacity, and its space-related activities also involve the Arctic.”

Bakke-Jensen said Norway welcomes the September 2020 establishment of NATO Joint Force Command Norfolk, co-located with the US Navy’s Second Fleet, to protect sea lanes between Europe and North America, including those in the Arctic.

“The Arctic is a very important area for cooperation between the United States and Norway. As we speak, the US Air Force is conducting operations with four of its B-1 bombers from Ørland [Main Air Station] in central Norway,” he said. “Allied activity in the region shows Allied cohesion, as well as our shared interest in maintaining the Euro-Atlantic space as a region characterized by freedom, peace, and stability. At the same time, the scope of allied activities must be measured to avoid unnecessary escalation and misunderstandings.”

Since 2013, said Bakke-Jensen, Norway has boosted its defense budget by 30 percent in real terms. And it already spends 2 percent of its GDP on defense. Specifically, it has invested in F-35 fighter jets, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, and submarines.

“For Norway, it’s important to maintain the balance between deterrence and reassurance vis-à-vis Russia. NATO must also preserve that balance,” he said. “We want to be transparent and predictable, and we expect the same from Russia. Dialogue and communications about our intentions [are] important confidence- and security-building [measures]. Our neighbor has, over the past few years, become more expansive and less predictable, making Russia a strategic challenge and a demanding neighbor.”
Watch the full event

The view from abroad: UK, Canadian, Danish, Norwegian, and US officials weigh in on Arctic issues

Following Bakke-Jensen’s remarks, military representatives from the United Kingdom, Canada, Denmark, Norway, and the United States offered their perspectives in a panel discussion moderated by Anna Wieslander, the Atlantic Council’s director for northern Europe.

From the Canadian point of view, the Arctic “is a fundamental part of our heritage and identity and part of our future,” said Peter Hammerschmidt, assistant deputy minister for policy at the Canadian Department of National Defense.

It also presents “tremendous opportunities” as temperatures rise due to climate change, he said. “As we look out fifty years from now, we see ourselves as likely to be in a bit of a climate sweet spot for human activity: more arable lands, more accessible natural resources, [and] more open Arctic transportation routes,” he said. “It’s really a very attractive place to be on the planet, from the point of view of resources, climate, and migration. So we stand to gain. But from my perspective, to be able to take advantage of all the opportunities, we’re going to need to protect our north.”

Canada is starting from a strong foundation, Hammerschmidt said. It already has a permanent military presence through the Canadian Armed Forces’ Joint Task Force North, which leads operations in the country’s northern territories. In late February, US President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also agreed to modernize the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), which the two sides described as an expanded Arctic dialogue encompassing issues related to continental security, economic and social development, and Arctic governance.

Lone Dencker Wisborg, the Danish ambassador to the United States, said that while the challenges shouldn’t be exaggerated, NATO must remain “clear-eyed” about Russia’s military intentions in the Arctic.

“Even though the focus is mainly defensive, some elements might be used for more offensive purposes, and we have also seen China’s increased ambitions and interests in the Arctic relating to their desire for access to natural resources and sea routes,” she said.
il

Wisborg said Denmark recently approved a $245 million spending bill to boost Danish military surveillance, communications, and command-and-control operations in the Arctic, with Danish lawmakers agreeing to spend half of the money on drones to improve surveillance in Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark.

“This is for us a testament to the importance we attach to this region,” she said. “Our military purpose is not to increase tensions, obviously, but to monitor and safeguard our national territory.”

Henning Vaglum, director-general of security policy at the Norwegian Ministry of Defense, noted that Norway faces a large concentration of Russian military power across its border—namely Russia’s Northern Fleet—and that Russia’s nuclear and conventional capabilities are on the rise.

This, he said, is “enabling Russia to project power in a new way, particularly through the development of new underwater systems and long-range precision strike capabilities. We are seeing at least the capability of holding Europe and others at risk in a different way. This capability development in itself is of strategic importance.”

The goal, said Vaglum, is “to manage our posture in the north so as to maximize the intentional deterrence effect, but also to minimize the potential of unintended escalation.” He added: “The Arctic should remain an area of stability and low tension. That requires deterrence but also requires us to avoid provoking unnecessarily. We believe it’s very possible to find that balance.”

Angus Lapsley, director-general, strategy and international at the British Ministry of Defense, said that as a non-Arctic nation, the United Kingdom tends to view the region “through a broader lens”—especially in terms of the Arctic’s importance to climate science and international trade.

“If the Northern Passage begins to open up, then over time that could start to impact global trade patterns,” he said. “For most Europeans, it will become the shortest route to Northeast Asia and the Pacific.”

Yet from a defense perspective, Lapsley said, the United Kingdom sees Russia “as the most acute security threat to the UK, and an awful lot of Russian capability is based in the High North. Therefore, we think about how that threat could play into our own security.” There is also “the realization that China is a systemic challenger to the global order,” and it is “quite obvious that China is interested in the Arctic.”

“The Greenland-Iceland-UK gap is as important—and also sea control of the North Atlantic—as it has been ever since the Cold War, and before that,” he said. “We continue to invest in being able to operate our submarines underneath the ice.”

In addition, the United Kingdom is building a new generation of frigates in cooperation with Canada, buying new P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, and deploying small low-orbit satellites for better Arctic surveillance. It is also investing in the Joint Expeditionary Force—a United Kingdom-led task group launched during NATO’s 2014 Wales Summit and consisting of UK armed forces and forces from eight partner countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden.

Jennifer Walsh, US deputy under secretary of defense for policy, said Washington’s main priority in the region is to keep the Arctic secure and stable.

“For the United States, it’s also about looking at this region through the lens of defending our homeland. Cooperation with allies and partners is more important than ever, and I see this being particularly valued in the Arctic region,” she said, noting that the Pentagon has concerns about Russia and China.

“We are not looking to invite or provoke any type of conflict or escalatory actions, militarily or otherwise, in the Arctic. But we have been watching Russia’s behavior around the world,” Walsh explained. “And as it continues to develop its presence and its capabilities in the Arctic, we have to be able to connect some dots and think forward about what should we be anticipating from Russia in this region—even if its interests right now are focused on territorial defense. How far will it go to increase its oversight or control of northern sea routes?”

In much the same way, the Pentagon is keeping a close eye on Chinese activities in the Arctic.

“We know China is seeking a larger role in shaping governance and security issues to advance its Arctic ambitions,” Walsh said. “China’s behavior in other parts of the world should be considered in the context of ‘Will it follow suit in the Arctic region as well?’ We’re watching those, but no crisis right now—and our objective, as is everyone’s, is to prevent a crisis.”

Larry Luxner is a Tel Aviv-based freelance journalist and photographer who covers the Middle East, Eurasia, Africa, and Latin America. Follow him on Twitter @LLuxner.

Norwegian Officials: Russian Arctic Expansion Making Security Landscape ‘Difficult’

By: John Grady

March 22, 2021


Marines with Marine Rotational Force Europe 21.1 (MRF-E), Marine Forces Europe and Africa, conduct a live-fire range using Assault Amphibious Vehicles (AAV) in Blatindan, Norway, March 16, 2021. US Marine Corps Photo

Russia’s heavy investment in new ballistic missile submarines and long-range precision strike weaponry signal the Kremlin’s will to challenge NATO’s ability to reinforce the High North in a crisis, Norway’s top diplomat said Friday.

“The security landscape is getting more difficult,” Ine Ericksen Soreide said at The Atlantic Council on Friday.

Russia has built up a military presence in the Arctic over the last 10 years and deployed advanced strategic weapons, including submarines and missiles. The Kremlin also has built new air bases, giving its air force a longer reach into the Atlantic.

Norway “is the only NATO member bordering Russia,” so it is monitoring the military build-up and increased civilian economic development on the other side of the border closely, according to Frank Bakke-Jensen, Norway’s minister of defense. Adding another dimension to military changes in the Arctic, he identified the Barents Sea as “optimal to test new weapons systems” for Russia’s armed forces.

Norway is “NATO’s eyes and ears to the North,” Soreide, who previously served as defense minister, added. She also noted that Norway is different from other Arctic nations with its ice-free waters, caused by the flow of the Gulf Stream from North America across the Atlantic, making it strategically important geographically.

Russia shares both land and water borders with Norway. Historically, “we meet Russia with firmness and predictability,” Soreide said. But ever since 2014, when Moscow seized the Crimea region from Ukraine, Oslo has been more wary of the Kremlin’s intentions across Europe. It also cut off direct exchanges between the two militaries at the time.

“If we don’t stand up to that [overt aggression as in Crimea and eastern Ukraine], who will?” she questioned, referring both to economic sanctions levied on Russian businesses and individuals and a renewed commitment to security spending in the alliance.

Bakke-Jensen, who has been defense minister for three years, said Norway is meeting the 2 percent of gross domestic product spending target that NATO set in response to the Crimean seizure. He pointed to more recent buys of F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters and P-8A Poseidons patrol aircraft and new submarines as examples of where Oslo is putting its defense dollars. He added that Norway also upped its research and development security spending by 30 percent in recent years and said the investment can help with intelligence operations. In 2019, the reported Norwegian defense budget was about $7.2 billion.

USS Gridley (DDG-101) is moored pierside in Tromso, Norway, during a brief stop for fuel on Nov. 23, 2019. US Navy Photo

While Norway continues to cooperate closely with Russia on nuclear safety issues, fisheries and search and rescue in the Arctic, Soreide said that transparency hasn’t translated into Moscow’s sharing information with Oslo on military exercises that it’s holding near their shared border and waters.

Soreide termed Russia’s attitude now as “much more assertive.”

By contrast, she said NATO and Norway itself during the 2018 Trident Juncture exercise regularly informed Russia’s Northern Fleet about what was transpiring to avoid any miscalculation. “We’re extremely open with our exercises,” including regularly schedules ones with American Marines, but “we don’t see the same thing from Russia.”

During the conference, four American Air Force B-1 bombers were training with Norwegian air forces.

Terming Russia “a demanding neighbor,” Bakke-Jensen said security cooperation has grown to include Nordic countries like Sweden and Finland and Baltic NATO members in regional training exercises.

In the panel discussion following Bakke-Jensen’s remarks, Henning Vagium, director-general for security policy in Norway’s defense ministry, said that for all Nordic countries there has been renewed emphasis on defense and deterrence since 2004. He called Sweden’s and Finland’s militaries “highly capable” and said they are working effectively with NATO forces in the Arctic and Baltic. The two nations also add their expertise in confronting Russia’s “gray zone” challenges and disinformation ploys to defense and deterrence, Vagium added.

Bakke-Jensen welcomed the establishment of Joint Command Force-Norfolk and 2nd Fleet, operational since 2019, as important steps for the alliance and the United States in keeping the transatlantic sea lanes of communications open in a crisis.

Closer to home, Bakke-Jensen said that while talks with his Kremlin counterparts continue, the two nations have not been able to establish a hotline between Norway’s military and the Russian Northern Fleet. He kept open the possibility of working with Moscow to “what we’ve been successful with,” such as Coast Guard operations and search and rescue protocols as a means to reduce tensions in other areas.

K-560 Severodvinsk in 2018. Russian MoD Photo

Unlike other Arctic nations, 9 percent of Norway’s population lives above the Arctic Circle, where it has cities, industry, technology hubs and universities. The Gulf Stream “changes the calculus for us.” Soreide stressed the importance Norway put on the United States rejoining the Paris Agreement on climate. “Climate change happens twice as fast in the Arctic” than in other places. This has major implications for Oslo militarily, economically and environmentally.

Soreide said climate change in the warming Arctic was attributable to the “rise of global emissions,” rather than increased human activity in the north. One of the goals of the 2016 Paris agreement is to reduce global warming by 2-degrees Celsius by cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

As for China’s increased interest in the Arctic, she said as an observer to the Arctic Council Beijing has “been helpful so far.” Its interests have been “relatively limited [to] research and climate,” but that does not mean Beijing’s ambitions will not grow over time.

The badge of Standing NATO Maritime Group One (SNMG1) is seen on a staff member’s uniform as Royal Norwegian navy Commodore Yngve Skoglund assumes command of SNMG1 from U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Edward Cashman during a change of command ceremony in Bergen, Norway on late 2019. NATO Photo

“We see the cooperation with Russia on energy and gas,” Bakke-Jensen said, but “I don’t think Russia is too keen on giving China” too big a role in the region. “They are dancing a difficult tango.” With the Northern Sea Route opening up for longer periods of time to shipping and Beijing’s building of heavy icebreakers, “we expect them to be more active.”

In the years ahead, NATO needs to recognize that in the Arctic “the threats [not only militarily] are coming at us [from] 360” degrees, Angus Lapsley, director general of strategy in the United Kingdom’s ministry of defense, said in the panel discussion.

Bakke-Jensen cited China’s investment in mining in Greenland and interest in building airports on the island. Beijing also has actively explored possibilities in Canada’s Northwest Territories and infrastructure projects in Iceland.

Soreide wanted to keep the Arctic Council’s focus on non-security matters – like fisheries, communications, scientific research, et al. The region “does not need new governance structures,” but must “uphold the ones we have,” like the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, she said.




About John Grady

John Grady, a former managing editor of Navy Times, retired as director of communications for the Association of the United States Army. His reporting on national defense and national security has appeared on Breaking Defense, GovExec.com, NextGov.com, DefenseOne.com, Government Executive and USNI News.