Anti-Black police brutality may lead to an armed insurgency in the US
To avoid violence, the country needs urgent reforms criminal justice system.
The killings of African Americans at the hands of police officers has continued unabated in the United States. In the past year, the deaths of Breonna Taylor in her bed and George Floyd by public asphyxiation are two of the most egregious.
As the officer who knelt on Floyd’s neck was being tried for the killing in court, another officer shot and killed Daunte Wright.
Scholarly research has begun to document the traumatic consequences of police killings on African Americans. One study finds the effects on Black males meet the “criteria for trauma exposure”, based on the latest edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, used for psychiatric diagnoses.
Besides police use of force in North America, one of the trajectories of my research focuses on armed insurgency in sub-Saharan Africa. I am beginning to observe in the United States some of the social conditions necessary for the maturation and rise of an armed insurgency. The United States is at risk of armed insurgencies within the next five years if the current wave of killings of unarmed Black people continues.
Conditions for insurgency
To begin, the armed insurgencies would not have a defined organisational structure. They may look like Mexico’s Zapatista movement or the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta in Nigeria.
Entities operating independently will spring up, but over time, a loose coalition may form to take credit for actions of organisationally disparate groups for maximum effect. There will likely be no single leader to neutralise at the onset. Like the US global counter-terrorism efforts, neutralising leaders will only worsen matters.
Using research and contextual experience from the developing world to make predictions about the US in this regard is apt. There are many interrelated conditions for the rise of an armed insurgency. None of them in and of itself can lead to an armed insurgency but requires a host of variables within social and political processes.
Transgenerational oppression of an identifiable group is one of the pre-conditions for an armed insurgency, but this is hardly news. What the US has managed to institute on a national and comprehensive scale is what sociologist Jock Young calls “cultural inclusion and structural exclusion”.
A strong sense of injustice, along with significant moments, events and episodes – like the killings of Taylor and Floyd – are also important.
Historically, police officers are not held to account for the extra-judicial killings of Black people.
The racialised trauma from police killings adds to the growing sense of alienation and frustration felt by African Americans, but police killings are not the only way they experience disproportionate death rates.
African Americans have the second-highest per capita death toll from the Covid-19 pandemic: 179.8 deaths per 100,000 (second only to Indigenous Americans with 256.0 deaths per 100,000). They are also at a higher risk of death from cancer, for example. The pandemic has compounded these deaths, adding to the disproportionately high unemployment rate and the impact of layoffs during the pandemic.
Potential insurgents
There is another, related variable: the availability of people willing and able to participate in such insurgency. The US has potential candidates in abundance. Criminal records – sometimes for relatively minor offences – that mar Black males for life, have taken care of this critical supply. One study estimates that while eight per cent of the U.S. general population has felony convictions, the figure is 33% among African American males.
Some of these men may gradually be reaching the point where they believe they have nothing to lose. Some will join for revenge, others for the thrill of it and many for the dignity of the people they feel have been trampled on for too long. Although 93% of protest against police brutality is peaceful and involves no major harm to people and property, there is no guarantee that future protests about new police killings will remain peaceful.
The legitimacy of grievances of Black Americans among their fellow citizens is also an important variable. Their grievances appear to have found strong resonance and increasing sympathy within the broader population. Many Latino, Native American and white people see the injustices against Black people and are appalled. Black Lives Matter protests are now major multicultural events, particularly among young adults.
A sense that there are no legitimate channels to address the grievances or that those channels have been exhausted is also crucial. This is evident in the failure to convict or even try police officers involved in several of the incidents. A grand jury could not indict the officer whose chokehold led to the death of Eric Garner, despite video evidence. Such cases have led to a troubling loss of trust in the criminal justice system.
Mode of operation
Any anti-police insurgency in the US will likely start as an urban-based guerrilla-style movement. Attacks may be carried out on sites and symbols of law enforcement.
Small arms and improvised explosive devices will likely be weapons of choice, which are relatively easy to acquire and build, respectively. The US has the highest number of civilian firearms in the world with 120.5 guns per 100 persons or more than 393 million guns.
Critical infrastructure and government buildings may be targeted after business hours. The various groups will initially seek to avoid civilian casualties, and this may help to garner a level of support among the socially marginal from various backgrounds. The public would be concerned but relatively secure in understanding that only the police are being targeted. Escalation may ensue through copycat attacks.
The US government will seem to have a handle on the insurgency at first but will gradually come to recognise that this is different. African American leaders will likely be helpless to stop the insurgency. Anyone who strongly denounces it in public may lose credibility among the people. Authenticity would mean developing a way to accommodate the insurgents in public rhetoric while condemning them in private.
Moving forward
I am often amazed that many people appear unaware that Nelson Mandela was co-founder of uMkhonto we Sizwe, the violent youth wing of the African National Congress, which carried out bombings in South Africa. The rationale provided in court by Mandela regarding his use of violence is instructive.
Mandela told a South African court in 1963:
I did not plan it in a spirit of recklessness, nor because I have any love of violence. I planned it as a result of a calm and sober assessment of the political situation that had arisen after many years of tyranny, exploitation, and oppression of my people…. We chose to defy the law. We first broke the law in a way which avoided any recourse to violence; when this form was legislated against, and then the government resorted to a show of force to crush opposition to its policies, only then did we decide to answer violence with violence.
To predict that an armed insurgency may happen in the US is not the same as wishing for it to happen: it is not inevitable and it can and should be avoided.
Police reform is a first step. A comprehensive criminal justice overhaul is overdue, including addressing the flaws inherent in trial by jury, which tends to produce mind-boggling results in cases involving police killings. Finally, the judgment in the trial of Derek Chauvin for George Floyd’s death will have an impact on the trajectory of any possible future events.
TEHRAN (FNA)- Temitope Oriola, an expert in armed insurgency in sub-Saharan Africa, issued a chilling warning that the US may soon witness its own armed insurgency if significant police and criminal justice reform is not enacted quickly.
Oriola is the joint Editor-in-Chief of the African Security journal and associate professor at the University of Alberta. Based on his years of experience studying armed uprisings across the globe, he now believes that the US is potentially on the brink of disaster.
In an article published in The Conversation, he cites recent examples including the shooting death of Breonna Taylor, the asphyxiation death of George Floyd and the shooting death of Daunte Wright during a traffic stop as examples of deteriorating sociopolitical conditions for African Americans.
Without significant intervention and reform, Oriola believes the social conditions in the US may well lead to an armed insurgency within the next five years, and posits an anti-police insurgency as the most likely to occur.
After examining the development of the Zapatista uprising in Mexico, or militant insurgencies in the Niger Delta in Nigeria, Oriola believes were such an armed uprising to take place in the US, it would begin with disparate groups who would gradually form some sort of loose coalition with no centralized leadership. This decentralized power structure already exists in social justice movements like Antifa, for example.
Oriola highlights the fact that one direct root cause is insufficient for such armed uprisings to take shape, rather that a number of social, political and economic factors must coalesce simultaneously in order for the balance to tip in favor of organised insurgency.
He points to “transgenerational oppression of an identifiable group” as one such precursor which, combined with an overriding sense of ongoing injustice and numerous flashpoints of police brutality, provides sufficient kindling for the situation to reach the point of armed conflict.
Repeated group “radicalized” trauma in the form of police killings and other forms of brutality, combined with disproportionately bad healthcare outcomes for African Americans, in areas such as COVID-19 and cancer survival rates, add further fuel to the fire, in Oriola's estimation.
These poor healthcare outcomes exacerbate the already precarious employment numbers among the African American community, which has consistently struggled economically throughout US history.
Oriola next highlights the disproportionately high rate of incarceration among the African American community as providing a willing and able source of recruits for any potential insurgency.
Some estimates indicate that eight percent of the overall US population has felony convictions on their records, but this skyrockets to 33 percent when examining the African American community in isolation.
“Any anti-police insurgency in the US will likely start as an urban-based guerrilla-style movement,” Oriola suggests.
He adds that attacks would be sporadic at first, and would employ small arms and Improvised Explosive Devices, predominantly targeting symbols of law enforcement.
This was to a certain extent already foreshadowed in the summer of 2020 in the wake of the murder of Floyd, with numerous “autonomous zones” established in cities like New York, Seattle and Portland (Oregon), on top of months of riots sprawled across media coverage of the wider, mostly peaceful BLM protests.
To make matters worse, Oriola highlights the fact that the US has “the highest number of civilian firearms in the world, with 120.5 guns per 100 persons or more than 393 million guns”.
Worryingly, Oriola posits that, as the situation deteriorates, African American leaders will be powerless to stop the escalating violence as the government slowly comes to grips with the outbreak of an armed insurgency.
Oriola cites the words of Nelson Mandela during his trial in a South African court in 1963 as precedent for what may be about to occur in the US in the coming years.
“I did not plan it in a spirit of recklessness, nor because I have any love of violence. I planned it as a result of a calm and sober assessment of the political situation that had arisen after many years of tyranny, exploitation, and oppression of my people….” Mandela said, prior to his incarceration.
“We chose to defy the law. We first broke the law in a way which avoided any recourse to violence; when this form was legislated against, and then the government resorted to a show of force to crush opposition to its policies, only then did we decide to answer violence with violence,” he continued.
Oriola cautions, however, that such a (for now) hypothetical US insurgency is not inevitable and is, in fact, avoidable with sufficient police and criminal justice system reform. He also suggests that the outcome of the Derek Chauvin trial for the alleged murder of Floyd will prove crucial to the trajectory of the socio-political situation in the US for years to come.
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