GUNTER: Province counting on Albertans to voluntarily follow new, unenforceable restrictions
Author of the article: Lorne Gunter
Publishing date: May 04, 2021 •
Publishing date: May 04, 2021 •
SUN/POSTMEDIA
Facebook video screen grab of Alberta Premier Jason Kenney announcing new public health measures to limit the spread of COVID-19. Postmedia Network
Oh, lucky us. Albertans get to relive April and May 2020 when our province was in its deepest lockdown.
Let no one be fooled, the measures announced Tuesday evening by Premier Jason Kenney will not bring our province’s COVID infection rate down directly.
We are shutting schools to in-person learning, even though schools aren’t spreading the infection.
People aren’t catching COVID while they’re having their hair cut or their nails done, yet we’re closing all salons for three weeks.
Outdoor patios at restaurants aren’t a big source of spread, but they’re being closed, too.
Most workplaces aren’t hotspots (the few that are, typically aren’t offices or stores), yet office workers are urged to work from home and retail stores are forced to reduce capacity to 10 per cent.
The same goes for gyms. Very few have outbreaks, but they are closed, too, by government order.
So if most of the places and activities that Kenney shuttered Tuesday night are not causing COVID, why in heaven’s name did he close them?
Why did he also limit outdoor social gatherings to five people (from 10) and from no more than two family groups? Was there a lot of evidence from the province’s vast army of contact tracers that beers around a firepit was driving the recent third-wave spike?
Nope.
All these measures — plus further limits on funerals, worship services and youth and adult sports — are not designed to stop the spread. They’re designed to keep you at home for three weeks, so your socializing doesn’t increase the infection rates.
The schools are a good example. There are a lot of schools and classrooms subject to isolation because one or two students either have COVID or are suspected of having it.
That’s not the same as an outbreak.
Once enough teachers and staff are in isolation, even though very few of them have actual COVID, there aren’t enough substitutes and replacements around to cover.
So the schools aren’t being forced online specifically because there is a lot of infection in them. They’re closing in-person learning because as soon as kids are made to stay home, public health officials know 20 to 25 per cent of the workforce will have to stay home, too, to look after their kids.
Had daycares been closed as well, the portion of working people forced home would rise to more than 30 per cent.
Closing schools is about limiting adults’ mobility, not stopping a spike among kids’.
So will all this arbitrariness work? Only if Albertans decide to limit interpersonal contact on their own.
There aren’t enough police, peace officers, judges and jails in Alberta to enforce these recycled regulations if ordinary citizens refuse to listen.
The provincial government and police might be able to stop another rogue rodeo like the one last weekend in Bowden. But could they stop two? Or six?
And one GraceLife Church can be fenced off, but a dozen? That seems impossible.
The second-wave restrictions last December worked because Albertans on their own agreed to give up Christmas with family. There weren’t enough officials in the province to patrol each home and make sure no feast was happening.
Same applies with the regs announced Tuesday.
I suspect enough Albertans will say, “OK, OK, fine. We’ll put with this one more time.” And over the coming weeks infection rates will come down. (Infections, hospitalizations and deaths may already have plateaued.)
After that, vaccination rates should be high enough to prevent another spike.
But ordinary Albertans aren’t as fearful of the pandemic as they were a year ago when these tactics were first tried. So if enough decide not to follow the old rules again, there isn’t enough law enforcement to force them.
Oh, lucky us. Albertans get to relive April and May 2020 when our province was in its deepest lockdown.
Let no one be fooled, the measures announced Tuesday evening by Premier Jason Kenney will not bring our province’s COVID infection rate down directly.
We are shutting schools to in-person learning, even though schools aren’t spreading the infection.
People aren’t catching COVID while they’re having their hair cut or their nails done, yet we’re closing all salons for three weeks.
Outdoor patios at restaurants aren’t a big source of spread, but they’re being closed, too.
Most workplaces aren’t hotspots (the few that are, typically aren’t offices or stores), yet office workers are urged to work from home and retail stores are forced to reduce capacity to 10 per cent.
The same goes for gyms. Very few have outbreaks, but they are closed, too, by government order.
So if most of the places and activities that Kenney shuttered Tuesday night are not causing COVID, why in heaven’s name did he close them?
Why did he also limit outdoor social gatherings to five people (from 10) and from no more than two family groups? Was there a lot of evidence from the province’s vast army of contact tracers that beers around a firepit was driving the recent third-wave spike?
Nope.
All these measures — plus further limits on funerals, worship services and youth and adult sports — are not designed to stop the spread. They’re designed to keep you at home for three weeks, so your socializing doesn’t increase the infection rates.
The schools are a good example. There are a lot of schools and classrooms subject to isolation because one or two students either have COVID or are suspected of having it.
That’s not the same as an outbreak.
Once enough teachers and staff are in isolation, even though very few of them have actual COVID, there aren’t enough substitutes and replacements around to cover.
So the schools aren’t being forced online specifically because there is a lot of infection in them. They’re closing in-person learning because as soon as kids are made to stay home, public health officials know 20 to 25 per cent of the workforce will have to stay home, too, to look after their kids.
Had daycares been closed as well, the portion of working people forced home would rise to more than 30 per cent.
Closing schools is about limiting adults’ mobility, not stopping a spike among kids’.
So will all this arbitrariness work? Only if Albertans decide to limit interpersonal contact on their own.
There aren’t enough police, peace officers, judges and jails in Alberta to enforce these recycled regulations if ordinary citizens refuse to listen.
The provincial government and police might be able to stop another rogue rodeo like the one last weekend in Bowden. But could they stop two? Or six?
And one GraceLife Church can be fenced off, but a dozen? That seems impossible.
The second-wave restrictions last December worked because Albertans on their own agreed to give up Christmas with family. There weren’t enough officials in the province to patrol each home and make sure no feast was happening.
Same applies with the regs announced Tuesday.
I suspect enough Albertans will say, “OK, OK, fine. We’ll put with this one more time.” And over the coming weeks infection rates will come down. (Infections, hospitalizations and deaths may already have plateaued.)
After that, vaccination rates should be high enough to prevent another spike.
But ordinary Albertans aren’t as fearful of the pandemic as they were a year ago when these tactics were first tried. So if enough decide not to follow the old rules again, there isn’t enough law enforcement to force them.
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