The number of climate refugees is going to increase in the coming decades, according to a major UN report on climate impacts and vulnerability
(AFP/ASHRAF SHAZLY)
Amélie BOTTOLLIER-DEPOIS
Mon, February 28, 202
People driven from their homes as global warming redraws the map of habitable zones are unlikely to find refuge in countries more focused on slamming shut their borders than planning for a climate-addled future, according to a top expert on migration.
From fleeing a typhoon to relocating in anticipation of sea level rise, climate migration covers a myriad of situations and raises a host of questions.
But one thing is sure: the number of climate refugees is going to increase in the coming decades, according to a major UN report on climate impacts and vulnerability released on Monday.
"We are on the cusp of a major environmental change that is going to redistribute populations on a planetary scale," Francois Gemenne, a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, told AFP.
"But clearly -- given the current political climate -- we are not at all ready to confront this kind of question," he said in an interview.
"Rather, there's a tendency to shutter borders and erect walls topped with razor wire."
Which is why the temptation to raise the spectre of mass climate migration in order to spur more aggressive action in curbing carbon pollution is so dangerous, said Gemenne, a professor at Liege University in Belgium.
"Even if it's done with the best of intentions, this risks reinforcing xenophobic attitudes," he said.
But the problem is already here-and-now, even if so-called "climate migrants" have no legal status, nationally or internationally.
- Environment is economy -
"In 2020, some 30 million people were displaced by extreme weather events made worse by climate change -- three times more than the number displaced by violence or conflict," Gemenne said.
Most people forced to abandon their homes due to droughts, storms and floods made worse by global warming are in the global South, and most remain within the borders of their countries.
Many of those who do wind up on the edge of Europe or the southern border of the United States are often labelled "economic migrants", suggesting that they are pulled by opportunity rather than pushed by catastrophe, Gemenne said.
"My salary and yours does not depend on environmental conditions," Gemenne said. "But for a lot of people on this planet who depend on rain-fed agriculture, the economy and the environment are the same thing."
Sea level rise alone could displace hundreds of millions of people by century's end, with low-lying coastal regions expected to be home to more than a billion people by 2050, according to the IPCC report.
Vast expanses of agricultural land, particularly in deltas, are also at risk.
But predictions of how many climate migrants there might be in 30, 50 or 80 years are confounded by unknown variables and choices not yet made.
"It's very complicated and hard to say because we're talking about human behaviour, which can sometimes be irrational", Gemenne said.
"It's not really something that the IPCC can model."
- A 'virtual state'? -
The best projections to date may come from the World Bank, which has calculated up to 216 million people could be internally displaced by mid century, even under an optimistic greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
Although Gemenne said that does not mean this number will definitely be forced from their home.
Impacts can be softened by early warning systems, financial compensation or long-term planning, he added.
Indonesia recently made the extraordinary decision to move its capital to Borneo from Jakarta, on the island of Java, because the megapolis is being overtaken by rising seas and sinking due to depleted aquifers.
Rich countries "under the impression that big infrastructure projects will be enough to protect their populations" would do well to take note, Gemenne said.
The catastrophic flooding that ravaged parts of Germany and Belgium, as well as inundations in New York and cities in China should be a red flag, he warned.
"We need to collectively rethink where we can live, and where we can allow people to live."
For some countries, the forecasts are even more dramatic.
Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and other low-lying island archipelagos risk disappearing entirely, raising fundamental questions about the very definition of a nation state.
If a country disappears physically, can they still have a seat at the UN?
Do their citizens -- living, perhaps, as refugees in another nation -- become stateless?
Can there be such a thing as a "virtual state"?
"Climate change is going to challenge the very foundations of international relations," Gemenne said.
abd/mh/klm/gil
Amélie BOTTOLLIER-DEPOIS
Mon, February 28, 202
People driven from their homes as global warming redraws the map of habitable zones are unlikely to find refuge in countries more focused on slamming shut their borders than planning for a climate-addled future, according to a top expert on migration.
From fleeing a typhoon to relocating in anticipation of sea level rise, climate migration covers a myriad of situations and raises a host of questions.
But one thing is sure: the number of climate refugees is going to increase in the coming decades, according to a major UN report on climate impacts and vulnerability released on Monday.
"We are on the cusp of a major environmental change that is going to redistribute populations on a planetary scale," Francois Gemenne, a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, told AFP.
"But clearly -- given the current political climate -- we are not at all ready to confront this kind of question," he said in an interview.
"Rather, there's a tendency to shutter borders and erect walls topped with razor wire."
Which is why the temptation to raise the spectre of mass climate migration in order to spur more aggressive action in curbing carbon pollution is so dangerous, said Gemenne, a professor at Liege University in Belgium.
"Even if it's done with the best of intentions, this risks reinforcing xenophobic attitudes," he said.
But the problem is already here-and-now, even if so-called "climate migrants" have no legal status, nationally or internationally.
- Environment is economy -
"In 2020, some 30 million people were displaced by extreme weather events made worse by climate change -- three times more than the number displaced by violence or conflict," Gemenne said.
Most people forced to abandon their homes due to droughts, storms and floods made worse by global warming are in the global South, and most remain within the borders of their countries.
Many of those who do wind up on the edge of Europe or the southern border of the United States are often labelled "economic migrants", suggesting that they are pulled by opportunity rather than pushed by catastrophe, Gemenne said.
"My salary and yours does not depend on environmental conditions," Gemenne said. "But for a lot of people on this planet who depend on rain-fed agriculture, the economy and the environment are the same thing."
Sea level rise alone could displace hundreds of millions of people by century's end, with low-lying coastal regions expected to be home to more than a billion people by 2050, according to the IPCC report.
Vast expanses of agricultural land, particularly in deltas, are also at risk.
But predictions of how many climate migrants there might be in 30, 50 or 80 years are confounded by unknown variables and choices not yet made.
"It's very complicated and hard to say because we're talking about human behaviour, which can sometimes be irrational", Gemenne said.
"It's not really something that the IPCC can model."
- A 'virtual state'? -
The best projections to date may come from the World Bank, which has calculated up to 216 million people could be internally displaced by mid century, even under an optimistic greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
Although Gemenne said that does not mean this number will definitely be forced from their home.
Impacts can be softened by early warning systems, financial compensation or long-term planning, he added.
Indonesia recently made the extraordinary decision to move its capital to Borneo from Jakarta, on the island of Java, because the megapolis is being overtaken by rising seas and sinking due to depleted aquifers.
Rich countries "under the impression that big infrastructure projects will be enough to protect their populations" would do well to take note, Gemenne said.
The catastrophic flooding that ravaged parts of Germany and Belgium, as well as inundations in New York and cities in China should be a red flag, he warned.
"We need to collectively rethink where we can live, and where we can allow people to live."
For some countries, the forecasts are even more dramatic.
Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and other low-lying island archipelagos risk disappearing entirely, raising fundamental questions about the very definition of a nation state.
If a country disappears physically, can they still have a seat at the UN?
Do their citizens -- living, perhaps, as refugees in another nation -- become stateless?
Can there be such a thing as a "virtual state"?
"Climate change is going to challenge the very foundations of international relations," Gemenne said.
abd/mh/klm/gil
News Item: From bad to worse: key IPCC findings on climate impacts
28th February 2022
SUSTAINABILITY
With nearly half the world population “highly vulnerable” to severe climate shocks and nature facing in some cases irreversible threats, UN experts unveiled Monday a harrowing picture of global warming impacts.
Here is a rundown on some of the major findings in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report from the key Summary for Policymakers:
– A here-&-now reality –
Severe climate impacts — once seen as a problem on the horizon — have become a here-and-now reality.
Global warming has already contributed to species decline and extinction; an increase in vector-borne disease; more deaths due to heat and drought; reduced yields in staple crops; water scarcity; and a decline in fisheries and aquaculture.
Climate change has adversely affected physical health worldwide, and mental health in regions where data is available. Even as needs increase, health services have been disrupted by extreme events such as flooding.
The rise in weather and climate extremes has already led to “irreversible impacts” in both human society and the natural world, the report concludes.
And it makes clear that this is only the beginning.
Impacts will intensify with every fraction of a degree of warming.
At 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, 14 percent of terrestrial species will face an extinction risk.
Meanwhile, billions more people will be exposed to dengue fever, and climate-driven extreme events “will significantly increase ill health and premature deaths”.
– High tide = high risk –
No matter how quickly carbon pollution driving global warming is drawn down, a billion people will be at risk from coastal climate hazards such as increasingly powerful storms amplified by rising seas.
The population exposed to once-a-century coastal flooding will double if oceans rise 75 centimetres (30 inches), well within the range of 2100 projections. Currently, some 900 million people live within 10 metres (33 feet) of sea level.
By 2100, the value of global assets within future 1-in-100-year coastal floodplains will be about $10 trillion in a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
– 1.5C overshoot (not OK) –
In the first instalment of its trilogy of reports, the IPCC’s August 2021 assessment on physical science kept alive the Paris Agreement goal of capping global warming at 1.5C.
But even then, it said temperatures would temporarily exceed that threshold, potentially within a decade.
In its latest report the IPCC outlines the stiff penalty involved in this so-called “overshoot”.
Additional warming above 1.5C “will result in irreversible impacts” on ecosystems such as coral reefs, mountain glaciers and ice sheets with enough frozen water to lift ocean tens of metres.
Permafrost stocked with twice the carbon in the atmosphere could become destabilised.
“The risk of severe impacts increases with every additional increment of global warming during overshoot,” the IPCC says with “high confidence”.
– ‘Adapt or die’ –
Adaptation barely figured in the IPCC’s equivalent report from 2007. By comparison, the new assessment — the sixth since 1990 — highlights the need to cope with unavoidable climate impacts on almost every page.
Overall, the IPCC warns, global warming is outpacing our preparations for a climate-addled world: “At current rates of adaptation planning and implementation, the adaptation gap will continue to grow.”
Whether it’s reducing food waste or promoting sustainable farming; restoring protective mangrove forests or building sea dams; planting urban green corridors or installing air conditioners — the search for ways to live with climate change has become urgent.
– ‘Maladaptation’ & trade-offs –
The IPCC also highlights the dangers of getting it wrong at a time when there’s no margin for error.
“There is increased evidence of maladaptation across many sectors and regions,” the report cautions.
Building a seawall to protect against storm surges made more destructive by sea level rise, for example, may result in further development in precisely the areas most exposed to danger, creating “lock-ins” and increased exposure over the long-term.
– Tipping points & compound impacts –
The report trains a spotlight on irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes in the climate system known as tipping points that would be triggered at different thresholds of global warming.
These include the melting of ice sheets atop Greenland and the West Antarctic, which have enough frozen water to lift oceans 13 metres.
In a more immediate future, some regions — north-eastern Brazil, Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean, central China — and coastlines almost everywhere could be battered by multiple climate calamities: drought, heatwaves, cyclones, wildfires, flooding.
Scientists have only begun to study the impact of such compound calamites.
mh/klm/jm
28th February 2022
SUSTAINABILITY
With nearly half the world population “highly vulnerable” to severe climate shocks and nature facing in some cases irreversible threats, UN experts unveiled Monday a harrowing picture of global warming impacts.
Here is a rundown on some of the major findings in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report from the key Summary for Policymakers:
– A here-&-now reality –
Severe climate impacts — once seen as a problem on the horizon — have become a here-and-now reality.
Global warming has already contributed to species decline and extinction; an increase in vector-borne disease; more deaths due to heat and drought; reduced yields in staple crops; water scarcity; and a decline in fisheries and aquaculture.
Climate change has adversely affected physical health worldwide, and mental health in regions where data is available. Even as needs increase, health services have been disrupted by extreme events such as flooding.
The rise in weather and climate extremes has already led to “irreversible impacts” in both human society and the natural world, the report concludes.
And it makes clear that this is only the beginning.
Impacts will intensify with every fraction of a degree of warming.
At 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, 14 percent of terrestrial species will face an extinction risk.
Meanwhile, billions more people will be exposed to dengue fever, and climate-driven extreme events “will significantly increase ill health and premature deaths”.
– High tide = high risk –
No matter how quickly carbon pollution driving global warming is drawn down, a billion people will be at risk from coastal climate hazards such as increasingly powerful storms amplified by rising seas.
The population exposed to once-a-century coastal flooding will double if oceans rise 75 centimetres (30 inches), well within the range of 2100 projections. Currently, some 900 million people live within 10 metres (33 feet) of sea level.
By 2100, the value of global assets within future 1-in-100-year coastal floodplains will be about $10 trillion in a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
– 1.5C overshoot (not OK) –
In the first instalment of its trilogy of reports, the IPCC’s August 2021 assessment on physical science kept alive the Paris Agreement goal of capping global warming at 1.5C.
But even then, it said temperatures would temporarily exceed that threshold, potentially within a decade.
In its latest report the IPCC outlines the stiff penalty involved in this so-called “overshoot”.
Additional warming above 1.5C “will result in irreversible impacts” on ecosystems such as coral reefs, mountain glaciers and ice sheets with enough frozen water to lift ocean tens of metres.
Permafrost stocked with twice the carbon in the atmosphere could become destabilised.
“The risk of severe impacts increases with every additional increment of global warming during overshoot,” the IPCC says with “high confidence”.
– ‘Adapt or die’ –
Adaptation barely figured in the IPCC’s equivalent report from 2007. By comparison, the new assessment — the sixth since 1990 — highlights the need to cope with unavoidable climate impacts on almost every page.
Overall, the IPCC warns, global warming is outpacing our preparations for a climate-addled world: “At current rates of adaptation planning and implementation, the adaptation gap will continue to grow.”
Whether it’s reducing food waste or promoting sustainable farming; restoring protective mangrove forests or building sea dams; planting urban green corridors or installing air conditioners — the search for ways to live with climate change has become urgent.
– ‘Maladaptation’ & trade-offs –
The IPCC also highlights the dangers of getting it wrong at a time when there’s no margin for error.
“There is increased evidence of maladaptation across many sectors and regions,” the report cautions.
Building a seawall to protect against storm surges made more destructive by sea level rise, for example, may result in further development in precisely the areas most exposed to danger, creating “lock-ins” and increased exposure over the long-term.
– Tipping points & compound impacts –
The report trains a spotlight on irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes in the climate system known as tipping points that would be triggered at different thresholds of global warming.
These include the melting of ice sheets atop Greenland and the West Antarctic, which have enough frozen water to lift oceans 13 metres.
In a more immediate future, some regions — north-eastern Brazil, Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean, central China — and coastlines almost everywhere could be battered by multiple climate calamities: drought, heatwaves, cyclones, wildfires, flooding.
Scientists have only begun to study the impact of such compound calamites.
mh/klm/jm
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