Wednesday, July 28, 2021

'Extremely volatile': How COVID-19 threatens the global coffee industry

Laura Brehaut
POSTMEDIA
© Provided by National Post Coffee is one of the most widely traded agricultural commodities in the world, supporting the livelihoods of about 100 million people globally, especially in low income countries.


Kevon Rhiney drinks his coffee black, with just a hint of honey. He favours a medium-dark roast, especially from Jamaica’s Blue Mountains — coffee so legendary it has its own day on the Japanese calendar (Jan. 9, when the first large shipment left Kingston for Tokyo in 1967). Half a kilogram of beans from one of his favourite producers sells for more than $60 on eBay. But the author and assistant professor in the Department of Geography at Rutgers-New Brunswick, N.J., doesn’t need to pay a premium. When in Jamaica, he drives through the haze of the aptly named peaks to buy beans directly from the farm.

Like Rhiney, Canadians appreciate a good cup of coffee, though thousands of kilometres away from where it’s grown, most are removed from the realities of what goes into producing a bag of beans. At 6.5 kilograms per capita, Canadians are devoted coffee drinkers. In 2020, Canada rounded out the top 10 coffee-consuming countries , making it the only non-European nation to do so. But there’s a disconnect when it comes to our love for the beverage and an awareness of the challenges facing the people who produce it.

Coffee is under threat from climate change, deforestation and disease, the most devastating of which is coffee leaf rust. While there are 124 species of coffee, we drink only two: arabica, by far the world’s preferred brew, which is highly susceptible to coffee leaf rust; and the hardier (and less desirable) robusta. Sixty per cent of wild coffee species are at risk of extinction, including endangered arabica .

As Rhiney and researchers from the University of Arizona, University of Hawaii at Hilo, CIRAD, Santa Clara University, Purdue University West Lafayette and University of Exeter conclude in a new study in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , COVID-19 is likely to deliver yet another blow to an already precarious industry.

Drawing on recent studies of coffee leaf rust — a fungal disease that destroyed coffee production in Sri Lanka in the late 1800s, and now affects coffee-growing regions the world over — the researchers examined the root causes of past outbreaks. They found that a host of socioeconomic disruptions brought on by COVID-19 will likely result in new epidemics: including rising unemployment, travel and mobility restrictions, and stay-at-home orders.

In turn, they predict that these epidemics will probably cause a coffee production crisis, threatening the livelihoods of the roughly 100 million people who work in the global industry

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© Zack Guido COVID-19’s socio-economic effects will likely cause another severe production crisis in the coffee industry, according to a Rutgers University-led study.

Through his previous work on the impact of coffee leaf rust on Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee, lead author Rhiney realized that though much of the scientific focus has been on developing rust-resistant coffee varieties and chemical controls, socioeconomic factors play an important role in major outbreaks.

The “big rust” of 2012-13, for example, which affected coffee-producing countries across Central America and the Caribbean, can be traced back to the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis. The environmental conditions were ripe for coffee leaf rust, the researchers say, but the outbreak was also a function of the way people managed their farms.

“It took years to eventually manifest itself, but it was linked to changes in market prices,” says Rhiney. “Coffee became less viable in the years following the recession; many farmers pulled back from their investments on the farms. And by the time the prices started to get back up, farmers realized that their farms were literally infested with this coffee leaf rust disease.”

Weaker plants are more susceptible to coffee leaf rust, and the authors were concerned that COVID-19 would have a similar effect. Following the 2008 financial crisis, many of the boards established to ensure coffee farmers had access to vital equipment and information were either defunded or disbanded, explains Cathie Aime, a Purdue professor of mycology in the College of Agriculture and co-author of the study.

During her work with coffee farmers in Central and South America over the past decade, she’s seen firsthand the damage a lack of fungicides, spraying equipment and coffee leaf rust information can do.

“It’s a plant disease, yes. But a lot of the disease epidemic — the massive resurgence of disease we’ve seen — can be traced back to socioeconomic factors more than anything else,” says Aime. “It’s all a matter of getting resources and information to farmers. And when you don’t have the infrastructure, you have these catastrophic failures.”

© Zack Guido As a potential driver of coffee leaf rust — the world’s most severe coffee plant disease — COVID-19 poses a threat to the coffee industry, according to a new Rutgers University-led study.

The “big rust” had a knock-on effect throughout the coffee industry, adds Zack Guido, assistant research professor in the Arizona Institutes for Resilience and co-author of the study: “30 to 50 per cent of the plants were impacted; something like $500 million of export value was lost. And that rippled through the owners, to the labourers, to the exporters, to the coffee shops there and to our coffee shops.”

When Rhiney started his work on coffee leaf rust in 2015, three years had passed since the outbreak in Jamaica. Many producers had been forced to start growing other crops or leave farming altogether. Entire households were affected as quality of life changed and supports fell away, which came with its own set of psychological consequences.

“I don’t think many people realize how volatile the coffee industry is. It’s extremely volatile. And anytime there is a crisis, the people who feel the brunt of that are the smallholder farmers, the migrant and seasonal labourers who depend on coffee for a living,” says Rhiney. “And thinking about poverty reduction and all of these issues, even though coffee is considered a high-end product, it is extremely important in sustaining the livelihoods of millions of farmers and farmworkers across the Americas and throughout the world.”

It took several years for the 2008 financial crisis to have a visible effect on coffee production. Similarly, the researchers predict a one-year lag before the full effects of COVID-19 on the coffee industry are seen. When dealing with a fragile production chain such as coffee, says Guido, even when impacts aren’t immediately apparent, they can still be long-lived.

Guido has also worked with Jamaican coffee farmers over the past decade, and has seen the challenges they face bringing the product to market. Volatile prices, climate-related impacts and biological issues such as coffee leaf rust are constant concerns. For the most part, he explains, coffee is grown by smallholder farmers — primarily on parcels of land fewer than five hectares — in countries largely in development.

When we buy a cup of coffee, the vast majority of the profit goes to the end of the supply chain: roasters and retailers, not producers. Consequently, coffee farmers often don’t have the resources to deal with disruptions, such as those caused by economic crises and pandemics, and often operate at a loss.

“COVID is just another thing that is added on top of it, that exacerbates … all of the other issues that they continually deal with,” says Guido. “We can abstract this and think about, ‘Will the coffee cup be more expensive to us?’ But unless we’re thinking about how that coffee is produced and the different challenges that people experience within the context of COVID, I think we’re missing an opportunity to empathize. And really, we’re missing an opportunity to correct what I see as an imbalance.”

The authors draw a parallel between “essential but underrecognized parts of the production process, such as human health, food security and sustainability.” And they hope that a lasting side effect of the pandemic will be a widespread understanding that individual health is tied to collective health. In the case of COVID-19, that’s demonstrated in vaccinations and taking precautions to limit the spread; and in coffee, Guido adds, it means ensuring people earn enough income to continue to farm.

Breeding rust-resistant varieties shouldn’t be seen as a “silver bullet,” says Rhiney. An issue with strong socioeconomic drivers warrants cultural, economic and social solutions. As coffee drinkers, valuing the labour that goes into its production is key, he adds, as is recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of the global coffee system.

“How can we harness the positive elements within that interconnected world that we live in to ensure this idea of one health,” says Rhiney. “Where you’re not just sitting in a coffee shop in Vancouver enjoying this delicious cup of coffee, being far removed from the social and economic realities of the people who produce it. How can we be more aware of the world we live in and the foods that we consume?”



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