Tuesday, July 20, 2021

IEA Warns CO2 Emissions Set to Climb to 'All-Time High' as Rich Nations Skimp on Clean Energy

The Paris-based agency slammed rich governments for promising to "build back better" but refusing to "put their money where their mouth is."



Behind a lake, steam rises from the cooling towers of the Jänschwalde lignite-fired power plant of Lausitz Energie Bergbau AG on December 2, 2020 in Brandenburg, Germany. (Photo: Patrick Pleul/Picture Alliance via Getty Images)

JAKE JOHNSON
COMMON DREAMS
July 20, 2021

The International Energy Agency warned Tuesday that global carbon dioxide emissions are on track to soar to record levels in 2023—and continue rising thereafter—as governments fail to make adequate investments in green energy and end their dedication to planet-warming fossil fuels.

In a new report, IEA estimates that of the $16 trillion world governments have spent to prop up their economies during the coronavirus crisis, just 2% of that total has gone toward clean energy development.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, slammed what he characterized as the hypocrisy of rich governments that promised a green recovery from the pandemic but have thus far refused "to put their money where their mouth is." Research published last month revealed that between January 2020 and March 2021, the governments of wealthy G7 nations poured tens of billions of dollars more into fossil fuels than renewable energy.

On top of being "far from what's needed to put the world on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century," Birol said that the money allocated to green energy measures thus far is "not even enough to prevent global emissions from surging to a new record."

"Governments need to increase spending and policy action rapidly to meet the commitments they made in Paris in 2015—including the vital provision of financing by advanced economies to the developed world," Birol continued. "But they must then go even further by leading clean energy investment and deployment to much greater heights beyond the recovery period in order to shift the world onto a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050, which is narrow but still achievable—if we act now.”

The IEA's analysis—which examines roughly 800 policies implemented throughout the coronavirus crisis by more than 50 countries—finds that "full and timely implementation" of the economic recovery measures would result in CO2 emissions surging to an "all-time high" in 2023 and continuing to rise in the following years, more than wiping out the pandemic-related emissions drop.

"While this trajectory is 800 million tonnes lower in 2023 than it would have been without any sustainable recovery efforts," the analysis notes, "it is nonetheless 3,500 million tonnes above" what's necessary to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

The Paris-based agency's latest findings come just months after it said world governments must immediately halt all new investments in oil and gas projects in order to avert the worst consequences of the climate crisis, which is wreaking havoc across the globe in the form of catastrophic flooding, deadly heatwaves, drought, and wildfires.

Birol plans to present the IEA's new report to the leaders of G20 nations, which—according to research published Tuesday morning—have handed more than $3.3 trillion in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry since the Paris climate accord was finalized in 2015.

"The action taken by these countries up until this point is a far cry from what is needed," Antha Williams, the environment lead at Bloomberg Philanthropies, which helped conduct the subsidy research, told The Guardian. "As a host of climate emergencies intensify around the world, the continued development of fossil fuel infrastructure is nothing short of reckless. We need more than just words—we need action."

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CO2 emissions set to hit record levels in 2023 and there’s ‘no clear peak in sight,’ IEA says

PUBLISHED TUE, JUL 20 2021
KEY POINTS

The new findings from the IEA come after it said the planet’s demand for electricity was set for a strong rebound this year and next.

“Despite increased climate ambitions, the amount of economic recovery funds being spent on clean energy is just a small sliver of the total,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, states.




querbeet | E+ | Getty Images

Only a small chunk of governments’ recovery spending in response to the Covid-19 pandemic has been allocated to clean energy measures, according to the International Energy Agency, with the Paris-based organization forecasting that carbon dioxide emissions will hit record levels in 2023.

Published on Tuesday, the IEA’s analysis notes that, as of the second quarter of this year, the world’s governments had set aside roughly $380 billion for “energy-related sustainable recovery measures.” This represents approximately 2% of recovery spending, it said.

In a statement issued alongside its analysis, the IEA laid out a stark picture of just how much work needed to be done in order for climate related targets to be met.


“The sums of money, both public and private, being mobilised worldwide by recovery plans fall well short of what is needed to reach international climate goals,” it said.

These shortfalls were “particularly pronounced in emerging and developing economies, many of which face particular financing challenges,” it added.

Looking ahead, the Paris-based organization estimated that, under current spending plans, the planet’s carbon dioxide emissions would be on course to hit record levels in 2023 and continue to grow in the ensuing years. There was, its analysis claimed, “no clear peak in sight.”

Commenting on the findings, Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said: “Since the Covid-19 crisis erupted, many governments may have talked about the importance of building back better for a cleaner future, but many of them are yet to put their money where their mouth is.”

“Despite increased climate ambitions, the amount of economic recovery funds being spent on clean energy is just a small sliver of the total,” he added.

The IEA’s analysis and projections are based on its Sustainable Recovery Tracker, which was launched on Tuesday and “monitors government spending allocated to sustainable recoveries.”

The tracker takes this information and then uses it to estimate “how much this spending boosts overall clean energy investment and to what degree this affects the trajectory of global CO2 emissions.”

For his part, Birol said governments needed to “increase spending and policy action rapidly to meet the commitments they made in Paris in 2015 — including the vital provision of financing by advanced economies to the developing world.

“But they must then go even further,” he added, “by leading clean energy investment and deployment to much greater heights beyond the recovery period in order to shift the world onto a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050, which is narrow but still achievable — if we act now.”

Birol’s reference to the Paris Agreement is notable but unsurprising. The shadow of the accord, which aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels,” looms large over discussions about net-zero goals.

Cutting human-made carbon dioxide emissions to net-zero by 2050 is seen as crucial when it comes to meeting the 1.5 degrees Celsius target.

The new findings from the IEA come after it said the planet’s demand for electricity was set for a strong rebound this year and next after dropping by approximately 1% in 2020.

Released last week, its Electricity Market Report forecasts that global electricity demand will jump by nearly 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, as economies around the world look to recover from the effects of the pandemic.

The report notes that although electricity generation from renewables “continues to grow strongly” it can’t keep up with increasing demand.

Renewables were, the intergovernmental organization noted, “expected to be able to serve only around half of the projected growth in global demand in 2021 and 2022.”

At the other end of the spectrum, electricity generation based on fossil fuels was “set to cover 45% of additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022.”

Indeed, the reality on the ground shows just how big a challenge achieving climate-related goals will be in the years ahead.

Energy companies are still discovering new oil fields, for example, while in countries such as the U.S., fossil fuels continue to play a significant role in electricity production.

At the global level, the IEA’s research published last week expects coal-fired electricity generation to rise “by almost 5% in 2021 and a further 3% in 2022, after having declined by 4.6% in 2020.”

“As a result, coal-fired electricity generation is set to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2021 and reach an all-time high in 2022,” it adds.

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