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As millennials fall out of love with Trudeau, Liberals need to stop bleed towards the NDP'With millennials, it's not just who they're supporting, but are they motivated?'
Author of the article: Christopher Nardi
POSTMEDIA
According to experts, the falling out of love between millennials and Trudeau began before the 2019 election, notably with the SNC-Lavalin scandal that shook the Trudeau government and led to the resignation of ministers Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. The ethics commissioner later found that Trudeau had acted improperly by trying to push Wilson-Raybould to end criminal prosecution of SNC-Lavalin.
The government’s decision to purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline in order to facilitate its expansion in western Canada also dealt a heavy blow to millennials’ impressions of the Liberals, since they often rate the fight against climate change and environmental issues amongst their top political priorities when voting, experts say.
“There’s some disappointment, even significant disappointment. Electoral reform, Indigenous reconciliation, even climate change, I think the Liberals have really strengthened their brand around climate change, but there are many who would still say we haven’t done nearly enough in the six years that you’ve been in power to move this along,” Coletto said.
“I think SNC-Lavalin, and some of the other decisions they’ve made since they were elected, have really deteriorated that image of a prime minister and a leader who is different.”
I think SNC-Lavalin, and some of the other decisions they've made since they were elected, have really deteriorated that image of a prime minister and a leader who is different
But has millennials’ perception of the Liberals changed at all throughout the COVID-19 pandemic? And more specifically, have the Trudeau governments’ costly and generous financial aid benefits — which have led to record deficits and pushed Canada’s debt over the $1 trillion mark — swayed 20 to 40 year old Canadians’ whose top concern lately is affordability?
No, say both pollsters, who note that millennials seem mostly ambivalent about Liberal COVID-19 policy such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), possibly due to factors that aren’t always of the federal government’s purview (such as lockdowns imposed by the provinces).
“CERB for sure has been welcomed by that millennial group, they’ve appreciated it. But I also do think that some of the lockdown measures such as the closures of the bars, lounges, and gyms has really also been more negatively perceived by that age group as well,” Enns said.
“So the pandemic has kind of been a bit of a wash when it comes to their impression of the government,” he added.
Publishing date: Aug 17, 2021 •
Justin Trudeau greets supporters during a campaign stop in his Papineau riding in Montreal on Aug. 15, 2021. PHOTO BY CHRISTINNE MUSCHI /Reuters
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OTTAWA — In 2015, millennials mobilized in droves to support the Justin TrudeauLiberals, but, six years and two elections later, experts say millennials have fallen out of love with the prime minister and his party will have to work hard to stop them from bleeding over to the emerging NDP.
“There’s a bit of disillusion or disappointment,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at Leger polling firm. A far cry from 2015, where he says there was “shocking rise for the liberals in the 18- to 34-year-old bracket.”
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data which does a lot of work focused on millennials specifically, has reached the same conclusion. Whereas millennials — which is broadly defined as people born between 1980 and 2000 — were enamoured with 2015 Trudeau, that veneer has now washed away.
And polling numbers illustrate that fall eloquently. According to Leger polling, nearly half (46 per cent) of Canadians aged 18 to 34 supported the Liberal Party of Canada by the end of the 2015 campaign that led Trudeau from leader of the third opposition to prime minister of Canada.
There’s a bit of disillusion or disappointment
Fast forward to the end of his mandate in 2019, and that number had already fallen to around 30 per cent, both Coletto and Enns’ data shows. The Liberals remain the party favoured by millennials, but the gap with the NDP is closing.
Incidentally, 2019 is also the electoral year in which Trudeau’s government lost its majority status and became a minority government.
“I think they need millennials, certainly to win a majority,” Coletto said about the Liberals. “And these numbers probably aren’t as good as they’d like, though aren’t devastating.”
Liberal party spokesperson Braeden Caley says millennial Canadians and their younger counterparts known as “Gen X” are “absolutely” a key demographic for Trudeau because they care about issues that the party holds dear: “fighting climate change, making life more affordable and keeping our community safe.”
But two years after 2019, and as a new federal election begins, millennials’ support has barely risen for the Liberals, and is currently a far-cry from the record support they had back in 2015.
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OTTAWA — In 2015, millennials mobilized in droves to support the Justin TrudeauLiberals, but, six years and two elections later, experts say millennials have fallen out of love with the prime minister and his party will have to work hard to stop them from bleeding over to the emerging NDP.
“There’s a bit of disillusion or disappointment,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at Leger polling firm. A far cry from 2015, where he says there was “shocking rise for the liberals in the 18- to 34-year-old bracket.”
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data which does a lot of work focused on millennials specifically, has reached the same conclusion. Whereas millennials — which is broadly defined as people born between 1980 and 2000 — were enamoured with 2015 Trudeau, that veneer has now washed away.
And polling numbers illustrate that fall eloquently. According to Leger polling, nearly half (46 per cent) of Canadians aged 18 to 34 supported the Liberal Party of Canada by the end of the 2015 campaign that led Trudeau from leader of the third opposition to prime minister of Canada.
There’s a bit of disillusion or disappointment
Fast forward to the end of his mandate in 2019, and that number had already fallen to around 30 per cent, both Coletto and Enns’ data shows. The Liberals remain the party favoured by millennials, but the gap with the NDP is closing.
Incidentally, 2019 is also the electoral year in which Trudeau’s government lost its majority status and became a minority government.
“I think they need millennials, certainly to win a majority,” Coletto said about the Liberals. “And these numbers probably aren’t as good as they’d like, though aren’t devastating.”
Liberal party spokesperson Braeden Caley says millennial Canadians and their younger counterparts known as “Gen X” are “absolutely” a key demographic for Trudeau because they care about issues that the party holds dear: “fighting climate change, making life more affordable and keeping our community safe.”
But two years after 2019, and as a new federal election begins, millennials’ support has barely risen for the Liberals, and is currently a far-cry from the record support they had back in 2015.
Canadian Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau and his wife Sophie wave on stage in Montreal after winning the election in 2015.
PHOTO BY NICHOLAS KAMM / AFP, GETTY IMAGES
“It’s no longer love. I’d say it’s better than acceptance, but not as good as love is where I think most of them are,” said Coletto about millennials’ current feelings about the Liberals.
“This is not a generation anymore that looks at the prime minister and says, ‘He’s different, he’s one of us, he’s going to change politics,’” he continued.
When asked if he is concerned with millennials’ significantly dampened appreciation of the Liberals, Caley insisted that Trudeau has “very robust support” from young Canadians, though he did not provide any data contradicting polling numbers.
“It’s no longer love. I’d say it’s better than acceptance, but not as good as love is where I think most of them are,” said Coletto about millennials’ current feelings about the Liberals.
“This is not a generation anymore that looks at the prime minister and says, ‘He’s different, he’s one of us, he’s going to change politics,’” he continued.
When asked if he is concerned with millennials’ significantly dampened appreciation of the Liberals, Caley insisted that Trudeau has “very robust support” from young Canadians, though he did not provide any data contradicting polling numbers.
According to experts, the falling out of love between millennials and Trudeau began before the 2019 election, notably with the SNC-Lavalin scandal that shook the Trudeau government and led to the resignation of ministers Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. The ethics commissioner later found that Trudeau had acted improperly by trying to push Wilson-Raybould to end criminal prosecution of SNC-Lavalin.
The government’s decision to purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline in order to facilitate its expansion in western Canada also dealt a heavy blow to millennials’ impressions of the Liberals, since they often rate the fight against climate change and environmental issues amongst their top political priorities when voting, experts say.
“There’s some disappointment, even significant disappointment. Electoral reform, Indigenous reconciliation, even climate change, I think the Liberals have really strengthened their brand around climate change, but there are many who would still say we haven’t done nearly enough in the six years that you’ve been in power to move this along,” Coletto said.
“I think SNC-Lavalin, and some of the other decisions they’ve made since they were elected, have really deteriorated that image of a prime minister and a leader who is different.”
I think SNC-Lavalin, and some of the other decisions they've made since they were elected, have really deteriorated that image of a prime minister and a leader who is different
But has millennials’ perception of the Liberals changed at all throughout the COVID-19 pandemic? And more specifically, have the Trudeau governments’ costly and generous financial aid benefits — which have led to record deficits and pushed Canada’s debt over the $1 trillion mark — swayed 20 to 40 year old Canadians’ whose top concern lately is affordability?
No, say both pollsters, who note that millennials seem mostly ambivalent about Liberal COVID-19 policy such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), possibly due to factors that aren’t always of the federal government’s purview (such as lockdowns imposed by the provinces).
“CERB for sure has been welcomed by that millennial group, they’ve appreciated it. But I also do think that some of the lockdown measures such as the closures of the bars, lounges, and gyms has really also been more negatively perceived by that age group as well,” Enns said.
“So the pandemic has kind of been a bit of a wash when it comes to their impression of the government,” he added.
Justin Trudeau gives a thumbs up to supporters, accompanied by his daughter Ella-Grace, before embarking on his first election campaign visit, in Ottawa, Aug. 15, 2021. PHOTO BY LARS HAGBERG /Reuters
If millennials aren’t voting for Liberals en masse like in 2015, then where is their vote going? In some cases, it has slowly shifted towards the NDP and its increasingly popular leader Jagmeet Singh.
But for the most part, experts agree that it stays home.
Elections Canada data shows that Canadians between 18 and 34 had the lowest turnout amongst all age groups in the 2019 federal election. For example, barely over half (54.2 per cent) of voters under the age of 25, and just over 58 per cent of Canadians aged 25 to 34, cast a ballot.
That is roughly 10 to 15 points under the national average of 67 per cent and shows how difficult it can be to mobilize millennial voters if they do not feel particularly compelled by one cause or party. In comparison, Enns says millennials voted “in record numbers” in 2015.
“With millennials, it’s not just who they’re supporting, but are they motivated?” Enns said. “In 2015, Justin Trudeau and the liberals, through a combination of his policies and who he was … created this buzz in this group that not only got their support, but actually got them out of their chair to vote.”
The pandemic has kind of been a bit of a wash when it comes to their impression of the government
But times have changed significantly since 2015, and this election is not gearing up to be anywhere as exciting to youth, the experts say. According to an Abacus poll released last week, millennials (59 per cent) were a whopping 20 per cent less likely to say they would “absolutely vote” compared to Canadians over 40 (79 per cent)
Liberals are not the only party courting millennials though. Singh’s NDP is aggressively pursuing the 20- to 40-year-old vote and pollsters say there are some initial signs of success that could be catalyzed by the current federal election.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, currently have little appeal to Canadians under 40, both pollsters’ data shows.
According to Coletto, millennials’ appreciation of Singh has boomed over the course of the pandemic and now exceeds Trudeau’s, with 46 per cent of them saying they have a positive view of the NDP leader compared to 39 per cent for Trudeau.
If millennials aren’t voting for Liberals en masse like in 2015, then where is their vote going? In some cases, it has slowly shifted towards the NDP and its increasingly popular leader Jagmeet Singh.
But for the most part, experts agree that it stays home.
Elections Canada data shows that Canadians between 18 and 34 had the lowest turnout amongst all age groups in the 2019 federal election. For example, barely over half (54.2 per cent) of voters under the age of 25, and just over 58 per cent of Canadians aged 25 to 34, cast a ballot.
That is roughly 10 to 15 points under the national average of 67 per cent and shows how difficult it can be to mobilize millennial voters if they do not feel particularly compelled by one cause or party. In comparison, Enns says millennials voted “in record numbers” in 2015.
“With millennials, it’s not just who they’re supporting, but are they motivated?” Enns said. “In 2015, Justin Trudeau and the liberals, through a combination of his policies and who he was … created this buzz in this group that not only got their support, but actually got them out of their chair to vote.”
The pandemic has kind of been a bit of a wash when it comes to their impression of the government
But times have changed significantly since 2015, and this election is not gearing up to be anywhere as exciting to youth, the experts say. According to an Abacus poll released last week, millennials (59 per cent) were a whopping 20 per cent less likely to say they would “absolutely vote” compared to Canadians over 40 (79 per cent)
Liberals are not the only party courting millennials though. Singh’s NDP is aggressively pursuing the 20- to 40-year-old vote and pollsters say there are some initial signs of success that could be catalyzed by the current federal election.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, currently have little appeal to Canadians under 40, both pollsters’ data shows.
According to Coletto, millennials’ appreciation of Singh has boomed over the course of the pandemic and now exceeds Trudeau’s, with 46 per cent of them saying they have a positive view of the NDP leader compared to 39 per cent for Trudeau.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh visits the East Village Beer Garden before meeting with the Calgary and District Labour Council on July 17, 2021.
PHOTO BY BRENDAN MILLER / POSTMEDIA
“Jagmeet Singh’s popularity has improved with this cohort. And as a result, their willingness and openness to considering the NDP has grown, but that hasn’t converted yet into hard support for the New Democrats,” Coletto said.
“If Singh and the New Democrats can engage and mobilize young people, he’s a wild card among the under 40 crowd and could foil the Liberals’ plans for a majority.”
NDP spokesperson Mélanie Richer says the party has noticed that young Canadians are more and more attracted to Singh’s message of “hope and change” — the same message that was so effective in 2015 for Trudeau and in 2008 for American presidential candidate Barack Obama, for example.
But both the NDP and the Liberals recognize that their main challenge will not only be to win over the youth vote, but then get them out to polls and fill out a ballot. The struggle will likely be compounded by the fact the election is occurring in the middle of a pandemic and during the fourth wave driven by the more contagious Delta variant.
So, each party says they’ve set up specific strategies to mobilize millennials, and even Gen Xers who are of voting age, to make sure they cast a ballot.
Instead of waiting until the last two weeks to do your ‘get out the vote’ efforts, we’re starting on day one
For example, Richer says that NDP candidates will be spending significantly less money on physical promotional items like pamphlets or cards or even big offices capable of hosting many people due to the pandemic. Instead, that money will go towards ads on digital platforms or improving their volunteer program.
The NDP will also be pushing young supporters to get out and vote as soon as possible instead of waiting for election day on Sept. 20.
“Instead of waiting until the last two weeks to do your ‘get out the vote’ efforts, we’re starting on day one,” Richer said. “By making sure people show up for advanced voting, people don’t have to wait until the day of, which by that point is going to be square in the middle of a fourth wave.”
The Liberals say a lot of their mobilization strategy will rely on groundwork being done by young Liberal groups and associations, as well as a series of digital communication tools focused on millennials’ favourite tools: cellphones and social media.
One new tool is Greenfly, an app used by various political parties, entertainment companies and sports teams and leagues to create online content on the fly and share it near-instantly with supporters on any number of social media websites.
The party will also be aggressively promoting a new short code telephone number — generally a five-digit phone number that is used by groups to send out mass text messages quickly — that potential supporters can text to interact with the party and receive Liberal alerts (text “forward” to 54222).
“If you looked at the American campaigns, if you saw just about any event with Joe Biden, you would see a short code mentioned everywhere. You would even see him mention it in debates. It’s an important way of people getting involved in politics,” Caley said.
“Jagmeet Singh’s popularity has improved with this cohort. And as a result, their willingness and openness to considering the NDP has grown, but that hasn’t converted yet into hard support for the New Democrats,” Coletto said.
“If Singh and the New Democrats can engage and mobilize young people, he’s a wild card among the under 40 crowd and could foil the Liberals’ plans for a majority.”
NDP spokesperson Mélanie Richer says the party has noticed that young Canadians are more and more attracted to Singh’s message of “hope and change” — the same message that was so effective in 2015 for Trudeau and in 2008 for American presidential candidate Barack Obama, for example.
But both the NDP and the Liberals recognize that their main challenge will not only be to win over the youth vote, but then get them out to polls and fill out a ballot. The struggle will likely be compounded by the fact the election is occurring in the middle of a pandemic and during the fourth wave driven by the more contagious Delta variant.
So, each party says they’ve set up specific strategies to mobilize millennials, and even Gen Xers who are of voting age, to make sure they cast a ballot.
Instead of waiting until the last two weeks to do your ‘get out the vote’ efforts, we’re starting on day one
For example, Richer says that NDP candidates will be spending significantly less money on physical promotional items like pamphlets or cards or even big offices capable of hosting many people due to the pandemic. Instead, that money will go towards ads on digital platforms or improving their volunteer program.
The NDP will also be pushing young supporters to get out and vote as soon as possible instead of waiting for election day on Sept. 20.
“Instead of waiting until the last two weeks to do your ‘get out the vote’ efforts, we’re starting on day one,” Richer said. “By making sure people show up for advanced voting, people don’t have to wait until the day of, which by that point is going to be square in the middle of a fourth wave.”
The Liberals say a lot of their mobilization strategy will rely on groundwork being done by young Liberal groups and associations, as well as a series of digital communication tools focused on millennials’ favourite tools: cellphones and social media.
One new tool is Greenfly, an app used by various political parties, entertainment companies and sports teams and leagues to create online content on the fly and share it near-instantly with supporters on any number of social media websites.
The party will also be aggressively promoting a new short code telephone number — generally a five-digit phone number that is used by groups to send out mass text messages quickly — that potential supporters can text to interact with the party and receive Liberal alerts (text “forward” to 54222).
“If you looked at the American campaigns, if you saw just about any event with Joe Biden, you would see a short code mentioned everywhere. You would even see him mention it in debates. It’s an important way of people getting involved in politics,” Caley said.
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