Monday, August 02, 2021

Braid: Poll shows UCP faces long climb out of persistent unpopularity

Author of the article: Don Braid • Calgary Herald
Publishing date:Jul 31, 2021 • 

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney at a press conference in Calgary. PHOTO BY POSTMEDIA FILE
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Premier Jason Kenney’s United Conservative government remains far behind the NDP in both popularity and cold hard cash.

A new poll for Postmedia from Leger Research shows 39 per cent of Albertans would vote for the New Democrats, and only 29 per cent for the UCP.

Current contribution numbers filed with Elections Alberta are even more startling.


In the first six months of this year, the NDP collected $2.7 million. The UCP brought in $1.2 million

If this trend continues, the NDP will have a stupendous war chest for the election coming in about 20 months.


Leader Rachel Notley’s party raked in nearly as much in the past three months ($1.5 million) as they spent to win the 2015 election ($1.6 million).

The NDP not only has more donations but about twice as many individual donors as the UCP.

Money trouble always makes parties nervous, even when they face virtually no opposition. The late Progressive Conservative premier Don Getty was gently encouraged to step aside in 1992 after fundraising fell off. He did.

The more visible problem for Kenney is weak approval numbers. This has shown up for months in results from several pollsters.


The latest findings from Leger remain bleak for the government.

First, there is widespread general discontent. Fifty-four per cent of Albertans say the province is going in the wrong direction.

The UCP scores behind the NDP in Calgary, Edmonton and the rest of Alberta.

Only in the age group over 65 is the UCP more popular than the NDP (47 per cent to 39 per cent).

The NDP appears to have a lock on most younger Albertans.

For those between 35 and 44, the NDP has 45 per cent approval and the UCP only 18 per cent.


The NDP leads among men, with 38 per cent to 33 per cent. Female voters favour the NDP by 40 per cent to 26 per cent.


Leger executive vice-president Ian Large says “the numbers are bad for the UCP.”

“But I think you’ve seen the low point in UCP support. There are small changes, incremental, but this could essentially be the darkness before the dawn.”

For instance, when only decided and leaning voters are considered, UCP support rises to 34 per cent. This is still well behind the NDP but appears to be trending upward.

Also, 51 per cent of voters say they could change their minds about whom they will support. Some younger voters, although leaning hard toward the NDP right now, are quite open to switching.

Large says, “there is lots of potentially good news on the horizon for the UCP. Oil prices are up, there’s the Trans Mountain pipeline — all that perfect storm for recovery is there.

“There is the potential for the numbers to keep rising. They’re only two years into the mandate, so they have another two years to pull it together.”

But some serious UCP challenges are starting to look entrenched.

“The NDP shouldn’t be leading in Calgary,” Large adds. “It just shouldn’t be happening. The (UCP) problem runs very deep, far beyond just a few people on the right.”


More troubles seem inevitable. Leaks from the Allan commission report on foreign funding of anti-oil campaigns show there has been no wrongdoing — an expensive finding sharply at odds with the premier’s rhetoric on oilpatch opponents.

Also, Leger’s polling was completed before this week’s abrupt shift in pandemic policy. By mid-August, the province will sharply cut testing and even allow people infected with COVID-19 to circulate with others.


“The announcement has created a great deal of confusion and concern,” says Large. “With the new rules, kids don’t have to wear masks, so you have a very big contingent of worried parents who are sending their kids to school.”

If the UCP is to get out of this jam, they have to start soon. The months do fly by.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Calgary Herald.

Twitter: @DonBraid

Facebook: Don Braid Politics

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