Author of the article: Jason Herring
Publishing date:Sep 18, 2021 •
FILE - Storm clouds move in over walkers in Edworthy Park and the downtown Calgary skyline on Tuesday, May 4, 2021.
PHOTO BY GAVIN YOUNG/POSTMEDIA
Canada’s five-week federal election campaign is drawing to a close, with major parties declining to devote significant time to Alberta on the campaign trail.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole have each spent only a few hours in the province, during the first week of the campaign, with Trudeau stopping in Calgary and O’Toole making an Edmonton pit stop. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has visited Edmonton twice, including on Saturday.
The province barely came up when leaders shared the stage for the English-language debate, either. Alberta was mentioned only during the two-hour debate when Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet said the Trans Mountain Pipeline project shouldn’t have been approved.
Alberta votes fairly predictably in federal elections, with Conservative MPs winning 33 of the province’s 34 seats in 2019. The NDP won a lone seat in Edmonton.
Canada’s five-week federal election campaign is drawing to a close, with major parties declining to devote significant time to Alberta on the campaign trail.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole have each spent only a few hours in the province, during the first week of the campaign, with Trudeau stopping in Calgary and O’Toole making an Edmonton pit stop. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has visited Edmonton twice, including on Saturday.
The province barely came up when leaders shared the stage for the English-language debate, either. Alberta was mentioned only during the two-hour debate when Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet said the Trans Mountain Pipeline project shouldn’t have been approved.
Alberta votes fairly predictably in federal elections, with Conservative MPs winning 33 of the province’s 34 seats in 2019. The NDP won a lone seat in Edmonton.
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in town to rally with candidate George Chahal at the Whitehorn Community Centre in Calgary on Thursday, August 19, 2021.
Darren Makowichuk/Postmedia
Still, Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt said he was surprised to see Alberta passed over in this election because several seats are in play in the province, something that wasn’t the case in 2019.
He said though some election issues including child care and carbon pricing will have a differential impact on Alberta, parties aren’t offering anything to the province.
“We know there are maybe six competitive ridings in Alberta: three in Calgary, three in Edmonton. You would think that would lead to a bit more contention, but it hasn’t,” Bratt said. He said leaders’ early-campaign visits to Alberta seemed to be them just ticking the province off their list.
“Calgary is the fourth-largest city (in Canada). Edmonton is the fifth-largest city. Calgary has the second-most corporate head offices. Surely that’s worth more than a drop-in.”
Those six ridings are Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation and Calgary Skyview, and Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Griesbach and Edmonton Mill Woods. A Conservative running for re-election is fending off a Liberal or NDP challenger in each of those ridings.
Leger polling released Saturday found 50 per cent of decided Alberta voters intend to cast their ballot for the Conservatives, which would be down from the 69 per cent of votes the party received in Alberta in 2019. The NDP and the Liberals are attracting 25 per cent and 17 per cent of voter intention in Alberta respectively, the poll indicates.
It’s usually considered a foregone conclusion Conservatives will win the vast majority of seats in Alberta, said Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns. He suggested even if the Grits had initially hoped to turn some urban Alberta ridings red, poor polling numbers early in the campaign may have led them to direct their efforts towards some regions in which they hope to retain seats.
“It’s also the case that the national news that’s been emanating out of Alberta hasn’t been linked as much to the campaigns as to the other big issue, which is COVID-19,” Enns said.
Both the Liberals and the NDP seized on Alberta’s pandemic response earlier this week, drawing comparisons between O’Toole and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney. Trudeau criticized O’Toole for previously praising Alberta’s COVID-19 approach, while Singh slammed Kenney while also throwing barbs at Trudeau for calling an election in the midst of the pandemic’s fourth wave.
O’Toole sidestepped questions on Alberta’s COVID-19 situation this week, saying all provinces have tried to balance their public health restrictions with economic needs.
Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole speaks at an election campaign visit to Canada Place in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada September 5, 2021.
PHOTO BY REUTERS/JENNIFER GAUTHIER
Though Conservatives still hold a comfortable lead in Alberta, Enns said some previous Tories have likely jumped to the NDP, while others have thrown their support behind Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada and Jay Hill’s Maverick Party. The Leger poll found six per cent and two per cent of Albertans intend to cast their ballots for those parties, respectively.
It’s unlikely these two parties, which are each campaigning towards disaffected Conservative voters in Alberta, will have much of an impact on election results, Bratt said.
“Even if you were to combine the Maverick Party and the PPC, they’re still not a danger of winning a seat,” he said, adding the parties also aren’t likely to sap even support from the Conservatives to flip any of their seats.
Kenney’s unpopularity in Alberta is also not expected to have a significant impact on votes for his federal counterpart, Enns said, with most voters separating their views of the federal and provincial parties.
“I’m not going to say there’s no downside of Premier Kenney’s troubles for the federal Tories, but I don’t think it’s a situation where we’ll see a real upheaval of the political landscape in Alberta as a result.”
jherring@postmedia.com
Twitter: @jasonfherring
Though Conservatives still hold a comfortable lead in Alberta, Enns said some previous Tories have likely jumped to the NDP, while others have thrown their support behind Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada and Jay Hill’s Maverick Party. The Leger poll found six per cent and two per cent of Albertans intend to cast their ballots for those parties, respectively.
It’s unlikely these two parties, which are each campaigning towards disaffected Conservative voters in Alberta, will have much of an impact on election results, Bratt said.
“Even if you were to combine the Maverick Party and the PPC, they’re still not a danger of winning a seat,” he said, adding the parties also aren’t likely to sap even support from the Conservatives to flip any of their seats.
Kenney’s unpopularity in Alberta is also not expected to have a significant impact on votes for his federal counterpart, Enns said, with most voters separating their views of the federal and provincial parties.
“I’m not going to say there’s no downside of Premier Kenney’s troubles for the federal Tories, but I don’t think it’s a situation where we’ll see a real upheaval of the political landscape in Alberta as a result.”
jherring@postmedia.com
Twitter: @jasonfherring
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