By Alex McKeen
Vancouver Bureau
TORONTO STAR
Thu., Sept. 16, 2021
As a tight federal election race enters its final days, the Conservative party is suddenly faced with the possibility of paying a political price for the actions of one of its highest-profile alumni — Alberta Premier Jason Kenney.
This week, facing a COVID-19 crisis for which many have blamed his government, Kenney dramatically reversed course, bringing in sweeping pandemic restrictions and acknowledging that his province’s health system is on the verge of collapse.
Some experts are now speculating that Kenney, a former cabinet minister in the federal government of Stephen Harper, could have the same kind of ballot-box impact on the fortunes of Erin O’Toole’s Tories that Ontario Premier Doug Ford had on Andrew Scheer’s in 2019.
That is to say, an unpopular Conservative premier could end up inadvertently driving voters to the Liberals or New Democrats on the federal stage.
In Alberta, such a shift could be a major blow to the party’s base.
The premier’s move Wednesday night to declare a public health state of emergency and launch a slate of new restrictions pointed to how serious Alberta’s fourth pandemic wave has become — only months after Kenney lifted almost all provincial restrictions in anticipation of what he boasted would be Alberta’s “best summer ever.”
On Thursday, federal leaders faced questions over how they would do better as prime minister.
Facing the most scrutiny was O’Toole, the Conservative leader who has previously said he supported Alberta’s approach to the pandemic and that it was better than the approach taken by the federal government.
O’Toole did not rescind that support when asked about Alberta’s crisis Thursday. He just said he, as prime minister, would work with all premiers to rein in the pandemic.
The developments in Alberta have brought COVID-19 back into the election conversation, experts say.
“For much of the campaign, it didn’t seem COVID would be an effective wedge issue for the Liberals, despite them trying to make it such,” said Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at Simon Fraser University, in an interview with the Star.
“But when Premier Kenney pretty much admitted that their approach to moving beyond COVID had failed, and failed badly, it threw that back into the fray as a difference between the parties.”
The issue, of course, is whether voters will inherently link Kenney’s much criticized efforts to his federal counterpart, O’Toole.
Prest says the greatest impact will be in the province of Alberta itself, where voters tired of Kenney may turn to the NDP or Liberals, and voters who wanted Kenney to stick to his original, restriction-free reopening plan may give their votes to the far-right People’s Party of Canada.
It set the stage, Prest wrote on Twitter, for the CPC to “bleed both to the left and right,” in Alberta, and potentially beyond.
“Kenney is one of the two most notable Conservative premiers in the country right now,” Prest said. “It creates this new opportunity for the Liberals to use this as a wedge issue.”
Mark Winfield, a York University professor in the faculty of environmental and urban change with expertise in politics, said the way Kenney’s COVID-19 about-face may influence the 2021 election is not too different from how Ford’s unpopularity in 2019 may have affected the federal election that year.
“Ontarians expressed their displeasure with the Ford government by voting Liberal in 2019,” he said. “And I suggest strongly that you may see a parallel event where people express their displeasure with their UCP government by voting most likely NDP.”
It may be a message that strengthens support for the Liberals or NDP among voters who want to avoid a Kenney-style COVID-19 response, he said.
“If they’re not prepared to distance themselves from Mr. Kenney on this what does that say? Are they really moderated or not?” Winfield said.
Even if Kenney’s apparent missteps only resonate in Alberta, that could still be significant for the Conservatives, who took all but one riding there in 2019.
“I think if the Liberals and the NDP pick up seats in Alberta — and they were already poised to pick up one or two — but if it becomes four or five, there’s going to be finger pointing at the premier,” said Duane Bratt, a political scientist with Mount Royal University in Calgary.
“And if O’Toole loses, and, you know, he’s been on a downward slide this past week, there’s going to be a lot of people looking at the role of Alberta in this.”
When the other party leaders were asked about the Alberta situation Thursday, and what it means about the Conservative approach to handling COVID-19, the harshest criticism of the Alberta premier came not from Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, who simply said things would have been better in Alberta right now if Kenney had taken action sooner on the fourth wave of the pandemic. It came instead from both the left and the right: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and PPC Leader Maxime Bernier.
Singh said in no uncertain terms that he condemns Kenney’s leadership on the pandemic.
“Mr. Kenney is a failure in leadership; the people of Alberta are suffering because of that failure, there’s no doubt about that,” he said in Toronto.
He also criticized Trudeau for calling an election rather than staying focused on the pandemic.
In a campaign stop in Oakville, Ont., Bernier took aim at Kenney not for reopening too soon and allowing COVID-19 to surge, but for reversing course.
“Jason Kenney, as you know, said a couple of weeks ago that he doesn’t want a vaccine passport, but today he flip-flopped like O’Toole on the vaccine passport,” Bernier said. “Shame on them.”
On Wednesday night, Kenney seemed to acknowledge that the province’s aggressive reopening in July had been a mistake. Despite previously vowing not to, he unveiled a vaccine-passport system, and brought back a series of public health restrictions.
The province is nonetheless in the throes of its fourth wave of the pandemic. In 24 hours this week, 24 people died from COVID-19. Kenney said the intensive-care units of his province could be overwhelmed in just over a week.
It will likely take weeks, officials added, before the effect of the new measures is felt in reducing pressure on the heath system.
With files from Alex Boyd
Alex McKeen is a Vancouver-based reporter for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @alex_mckeen
RELATED STORIES
Thu., Sept. 16, 2021
As a tight federal election race enters its final days, the Conservative party is suddenly faced with the possibility of paying a political price for the actions of one of its highest-profile alumni — Alberta Premier Jason Kenney.
This week, facing a COVID-19 crisis for which many have blamed his government, Kenney dramatically reversed course, bringing in sweeping pandemic restrictions and acknowledging that his province’s health system is on the verge of collapse.
Some experts are now speculating that Kenney, a former cabinet minister in the federal government of Stephen Harper, could have the same kind of ballot-box impact on the fortunes of Erin O’Toole’s Tories that Ontario Premier Doug Ford had on Andrew Scheer’s in 2019.
That is to say, an unpopular Conservative premier could end up inadvertently driving voters to the Liberals or New Democrats on the federal stage.
In Alberta, such a shift could be a major blow to the party’s base.
The premier’s move Wednesday night to declare a public health state of emergency and launch a slate of new restrictions pointed to how serious Alberta’s fourth pandemic wave has become — only months after Kenney lifted almost all provincial restrictions in anticipation of what he boasted would be Alberta’s “best summer ever.”
On Thursday, federal leaders faced questions over how they would do better as prime minister.
Facing the most scrutiny was O’Toole, the Conservative leader who has previously said he supported Alberta’s approach to the pandemic and that it was better than the approach taken by the federal government.
O’Toole did not rescind that support when asked about Alberta’s crisis Thursday. He just said he, as prime minister, would work with all premiers to rein in the pandemic.
The developments in Alberta have brought COVID-19 back into the election conversation, experts say.
“For much of the campaign, it didn’t seem COVID would be an effective wedge issue for the Liberals, despite them trying to make it such,” said Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at Simon Fraser University, in an interview with the Star.
“But when Premier Kenney pretty much admitted that their approach to moving beyond COVID had failed, and failed badly, it threw that back into the fray as a difference between the parties.”
The issue, of course, is whether voters will inherently link Kenney’s much criticized efforts to his federal counterpart, O’Toole.
Prest says the greatest impact will be in the province of Alberta itself, where voters tired of Kenney may turn to the NDP or Liberals, and voters who wanted Kenney to stick to his original, restriction-free reopening plan may give their votes to the far-right People’s Party of Canada.
It set the stage, Prest wrote on Twitter, for the CPC to “bleed both to the left and right,” in Alberta, and potentially beyond.
“Kenney is one of the two most notable Conservative premiers in the country right now,” Prest said. “It creates this new opportunity for the Liberals to use this as a wedge issue.”
Mark Winfield, a York University professor in the faculty of environmental and urban change with expertise in politics, said the way Kenney’s COVID-19 about-face may influence the 2021 election is not too different from how Ford’s unpopularity in 2019 may have affected the federal election that year.
“Ontarians expressed their displeasure with the Ford government by voting Liberal in 2019,” he said. “And I suggest strongly that you may see a parallel event where people express their displeasure with their UCP government by voting most likely NDP.”
It may be a message that strengthens support for the Liberals or NDP among voters who want to avoid a Kenney-style COVID-19 response, he said.
“If they’re not prepared to distance themselves from Mr. Kenney on this what does that say? Are they really moderated or not?” Winfield said.
Even if Kenney’s apparent missteps only resonate in Alberta, that could still be significant for the Conservatives, who took all but one riding there in 2019.
“I think if the Liberals and the NDP pick up seats in Alberta — and they were already poised to pick up one or two — but if it becomes four or five, there’s going to be finger pointing at the premier,” said Duane Bratt, a political scientist with Mount Royal University in Calgary.
“And if O’Toole loses, and, you know, he’s been on a downward slide this past week, there’s going to be a lot of people looking at the role of Alberta in this.”
When the other party leaders were asked about the Alberta situation Thursday, and what it means about the Conservative approach to handling COVID-19, the harshest criticism of the Alberta premier came not from Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, who simply said things would have been better in Alberta right now if Kenney had taken action sooner on the fourth wave of the pandemic. It came instead from both the left and the right: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and PPC Leader Maxime Bernier.
Singh said in no uncertain terms that he condemns Kenney’s leadership on the pandemic.
“Mr. Kenney is a failure in leadership; the people of Alberta are suffering because of that failure, there’s no doubt about that,” he said in Toronto.
He also criticized Trudeau for calling an election rather than staying focused on the pandemic.
In a campaign stop in Oakville, Ont., Bernier took aim at Kenney not for reopening too soon and allowing COVID-19 to surge, but for reversing course.
“Jason Kenney, as you know, said a couple of weeks ago that he doesn’t want a vaccine passport, but today he flip-flopped like O’Toole on the vaccine passport,” Bernier said. “Shame on them.”
On Wednesday night, Kenney seemed to acknowledge that the province’s aggressive reopening in July had been a mistake. Despite previously vowing not to, he unveiled a vaccine-passport system, and brought back a series of public health restrictions.
The province is nonetheless in the throes of its fourth wave of the pandemic. In 24 hours this week, 24 people died from COVID-19. Kenney said the intensive-care units of his province could be overwhelmed in just over a week.
It will likely take weeks, officials added, before the effect of the new measures is felt in reducing pressure on the heath system.
With files from Alex Boyd
Alex McKeen is a Vancouver-based reporter for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @alex_mckeen
RELATED STORIES
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