Author of the article: Dylan Short
Publishing date: Oct 16, 2021 •
An Alberta government billboard advertisement promotes vaccination and adherence to COVID-19 rules.
PHOTO BY GAVIN YOUNG/POSTMEDIA
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Several COVID-19 forecasters are warning that Alberta is not yet out of the fourth wave despite a week of dropping numbers.
The past week has seen active cases in the province drop to below 13,000 for the first time since Sept. 1 while hospitalizations dropped to 1,000 with 229 patients in the ICU. All of those numbers are down from their marks at the beginning of the week with the province’s most recently reported R-value remaining below 1 at .92. Health officials, including Alberta Health Services president Dr. Verna Yiu, said they are feeling more optimistic about the overall situation than they did several weeks ago.
Tyler Williamson, a biostatistician with the University of Calgary’s Centre for Health Informatics, said recent numbers are encouraging but it is too early to declare the fourth wave over.
“It’s too early to say for sure that we’re on the backside of the fourth wave. We cannot say that based on what we see,” said Williamson. “We actually saw that a few times through waves two and three, where there were a set of days where it looked like maybe it’s going to turn and it would turn into (…) a little valley on the way still up.”
He said that it will be important to watch numbers this coming week and see if there is a post-Thanksgiving spike. Williamson said another week of data would help paint a fuller picture of the overall situation and he will be looking at the R-value, which he said has recently been calculated to be above the 1 threshold more recently than the province’s last report.
Williamson also said the seven-day rolling averages will need to continue to drop.
In the meantime, he urged Albertans to continue to follow public health measures in place and to not celebrate too early.
“We really need to see the hospitalization ICU coming down,” said Williamson.
Hospitalizations remain much higher than at any point during the first three waves of COVID-19 in Alberta.
Dean Karlen with the BC COVID-19 modelling group agreed with Williamson that it is still too early to declare victory over the fourth wave, despite recent positive signs.
“Our analysis doesn’t rely on case data so much as looking at daily admissions to hospitals,” said Karlen. “When we looked at that data last week, it showed a tremendous turnaround, like the peak had just passed the week prior. So it was a little bit uncertain. You’d like to get a little more data to be confident of that statement.”
He said given the current rate of decline in hospitalizations, he expects numbers to become more manageable on the front line in several weeks’ time. He said people will need to continue to respect social distancing and following public health measures to keep the current trajectories in place.
Article content
Several COVID-19 forecasters are warning that Alberta is not yet out of the fourth wave despite a week of dropping numbers.
The past week has seen active cases in the province drop to below 13,000 for the first time since Sept. 1 while hospitalizations dropped to 1,000 with 229 patients in the ICU. All of those numbers are down from their marks at the beginning of the week with the province’s most recently reported R-value remaining below 1 at .92. Health officials, including Alberta Health Services president Dr. Verna Yiu, said they are feeling more optimistic about the overall situation than they did several weeks ago.
Tyler Williamson, a biostatistician with the University of Calgary’s Centre for Health Informatics, said recent numbers are encouraging but it is too early to declare the fourth wave over.
“It’s too early to say for sure that we’re on the backside of the fourth wave. We cannot say that based on what we see,” said Williamson. “We actually saw that a few times through waves two and three, where there were a set of days where it looked like maybe it’s going to turn and it would turn into (…) a little valley on the way still up.”
He said that it will be important to watch numbers this coming week and see if there is a post-Thanksgiving spike. Williamson said another week of data would help paint a fuller picture of the overall situation and he will be looking at the R-value, which he said has recently been calculated to be above the 1 threshold more recently than the province’s last report.
Williamson also said the seven-day rolling averages will need to continue to drop.
In the meantime, he urged Albertans to continue to follow public health measures in place and to not celebrate too early.
“We really need to see the hospitalization ICU coming down,” said Williamson.
Hospitalizations remain much higher than at any point during the first three waves of COVID-19 in Alberta.
Dean Karlen with the BC COVID-19 modelling group agreed with Williamson that it is still too early to declare victory over the fourth wave, despite recent positive signs.
“Our analysis doesn’t rely on case data so much as looking at daily admissions to hospitals,” said Karlen. “When we looked at that data last week, it showed a tremendous turnaround, like the peak had just passed the week prior. So it was a little bit uncertain. You’d like to get a little more data to be confident of that statement.”
He said given the current rate of decline in hospitalizations, he expects numbers to become more manageable on the front line in several weeks’ time. He said people will need to continue to respect social distancing and following public health measures to keep the current trajectories in place.
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