THE AMERICAN HALF OF THE PROVINCE

Early results suggest SOUTHERN Alberta votes in favour of removing equalization from Canada's constitution

While a final tabulation for the whole province won't be available from for another week, unofficial results were reported in several of the province's largest municipalities

Author of the article: Tyler Dawson
Publishing date:Oct 19, 2021 •

 

In Calgary, roughly 58 per cent of voters cast a "yes" vote for the equalization referendum. 

EDMONTON — Voters in Calgary, Alberta’s largest city, appear to have cast their votes in favour of removing equalization from Canada’s constitution, according to unofficial results in the province’s referendum on equalization payments.

While a final, official tabulation for the whole province won’t be available from Elections Alberta for another week, unofficial results in the referendum were reported in several of the province’s largest municipalities, including Lethbridge, Red Deer and Medicine Hat, in addition to Calgary, forecasting the possible outcome of voting.

Edmonton, the capital and second-largest city, chose not to release unofficial votes in this referendum, or a second on daylight saving time. (The cities, which are collecting referendum results while they also run a municipal election, have until next Monday to report results from the referenda and Senate elections to Elections Alberta.)

It was not clear Monday night, across all municipalities, what percentage of electors actually voted in the municipal election.

In Calgary, roughly 58 per cent of voters cast a “yes” vote for the equalization referendum, which asked if the equalization program should be removed from the Canadian constitution, compared to 42 per cent who voted “no.”

While that margin appears large — 16 percentage points — it’s small in comparison to margins seen in other cities in the province. In Medicine Hat, at times Monday night, the “yes” side had netted 70 per cent of voters. In Red Deer, early returns showed around 67 per cent voted “yes.” In Lethbridge 59 per cent voted in favour.

While the numbers were likely to shift overnight Monday into Tuesday, the “yes” side is clearly leading in several of Alberta’s major population centres, and equalization is a longstanding grievance in parts of the province.

For the United Conservative Party government, which has struggled to deliver on a number of election promises related to the economy, and has polled poorly over its management of the COVID-19 pandemic, the referendum was a badly needed win.

Kenney’s popularity has slumped badly, with just 22 per cent of Albertans — and only 39 per cent of 2019 UCP voters — voicing approval of his performance, according to ThinkHQ polling released in early October, underscoring his need for a win on the referendum question.

Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Calgary’s Mount Royal University, said even more than needing a win, Kenney needed “not to lose” this vote.

“This is a major plank of the UCP,” Bratt said Monday afternoon.

Still, it remains unclear what will happen next.

“It’s a very complicated affair, to say the least,” said Bratt.

Amending the constitution to remove equalization, a program that has existed since 1957, requires support in the House of Commons and the Senate, plus two-thirds of provincial legislatures, representing more than 50 per cent of the Canadian population.

ITS FIREWALL ALBERTA ALL OVER AGAIN

This is a result Alberta is unlikely to achieve. Still, supporters of the referendum, including former Alberta finance minister Ted Morton, have argued that a 1998 Supreme Court reference case about Quebec secession says that a win on a referendum necessitates negotiation between the federal government and provinces on constitutional amendments.

“If Albertans vote a ‘clear majority on a clear question,’ then Ottawa and the other provinces have ‘a duty to negotiate’ with us,” wrote Morton recently in the Calgary Herald .

Kenney has argued similarly: “A positive vote on a proposed constitutional amendment … (would) compel the government of Canada to engage in good faith negotiations with Alberta about the proposed constitutional amendment.”

But, that’s by no means guaranteed.

Eric Adams, a constitutional law professor at the University of Alberta, argued that the duty to negotiate is triggered — as in the case of Quebec — exclusively when there’s a constitutional crisis, such as secession, brewing. Not simply because one province wants to secure a change to the constitution.

“Let’s imagine ascenario in which any time a province holds a vote on any constitutional topic, and the positive outcome of that required every other province and the federal government to immediately engage in constitutional negotiations … it’s unfathomable, because of the dysfunction,” Adams told the National Post.

The United Conservatives, who swept to power in Alberta in 2019 by promising to get the economy roaring again and secure more autonomy — à la Quebec — for the province, have linked the referendum to other policy goals, such as equalization reform (not elimination) and changes to policies affecting the oil and gas industry.

“Even the premier is telling people to answer the question that’s not on the ballot, that this about leverage and this is about sending a message, and this isn’t about the constitution. But the question is about the constitution. That’s kind of the problem,” Bratt said.

The party’s 2019 platform promised to hold the referendum “if substantial progress is not made on construction of a coastal pipeline, and if Trudeau’s Bill C-69 is not repealed,” and refers to it as a tool for “leverage for federal action to complete a coastal pipeline and to demand reforms to the current unfair formula.”

Kenney himself has made these arguments in discussing the referendum.

“The point of it (the referendum) is to get leverage for constitutional negotiations with the federal government about reform to the entire system of fiscal federalism, which treats Alberta so unfairly,” said Kenney, according to The Canadian Press .

Monday’s vote, which occurred in conjunction with municipal elections for mayors, councillors and school board trustees, plus a vote for new Alberta senators, and a second referendum question on daylight saving time, represents the culmination of a United Conservative promise.

After the 2019 election, Kenney convened a panel to traverse the province, seeking feedback on how Alberta might gain greater autonomy over its affairs.

In May 2020, the panel reported back, making 25 recommendations to government, one of which was to hold a referendum on removing equalization from the constitution. In the 64 years since the equalization program was created, Alberta has been a “have not” province just eight times, and not since the mid-1960s.

“Albertans are frustrated and there is a growing perception that the equalization system is broken and fundamentally unfair to Alberta, pulling billions of dollars out of our province — even during times of economic recession,” wrote Finance Minister Travis Toews in an opinion piece published recently in the Edmonton Journal.

Results of Alberta's equalization, daylight saving votes to be announced Oct. 26

Author of the article:Lisa Johnson
Publishing date:Oct 18, 2021 •

Albertans got to weigh in Monday on whether the principle of making equalization payments should be removed from the Constitution — a non-binding vote, since equalization payments are set by Ottawa and paid for through money collected through federal taxes.

Albertans will have to wait until Oct. 26 for the results of two provincial referendums and a vote for preferred Senate candidates.

Among the three extra votes added to the ballot for Monday’s municipal elections, the referendum question on daylight saving time is the only binding vote. If Albertans opt to end the practice of changing clocks twice a year and move to permanent daylight time, which is observed in the summer, it will take effect in the fall of 2022.

When the province surveyed more than 140,000 Albertans online in 2019, 91 per cent were in favour of scrapping time changes and moving to permanent daylight time, or summer hours. However, some experts have warned the ballot question ignores a better option — going to permanent standard time — and that the switch to permanent daylight time would have negative effects on the health of Albertans.

Albertans also got to weigh in Monday on whether the principle of making equalization payments should be removed from the Constitution — a non-binding vote, since equalization payments are set by Ottawa and paid for through money collected through federal taxes. Making changes would require approval from the House of Commons, the Senate, and at least two-thirds of the provincial legislative assemblies.

The equalization program is based on the idea that provinces should have enough revenues to provide reasonably comparable levels of public services at comparable levels of taxation. Transfers are sent to provinces with lower incomes. Provinces with higher incomes — like Alberta — do not receive them.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has said the referendum vote isn’t about spurring a constitutional amendment or the end of equalization, but is meant to be used to get leverage in negotiations with Ottawa over equalization and other programs.

Albertans were also asked to choose up to three candidates among 13 Senate hopefuls on the ballot for the prime minister to consider.

The results of the Senate vote are similarly non-binding. Although Senate candidates from Alberta have been approved by previous federal governments, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has noted that the Senate appointment process, instituted in 2016, is based on merit. An independent advisory committee goes through applications and creates a short list of nominees for the prime minister and Privy Council Office to consider.

Municipalities will count the votes and have the option to release unofficial referendum and Senate election results. Edmonton’s Senate and referendum tallies will be sent to Elections Alberta, which will release official results on Oct. 26, including those reported from each municipality. Calgary, however, was set to release results on election night.