Thursday, October 14, 2021

Poll suggests Calgary and Edmonton differ on equalization referendum

Regardless of whether a majority answers yes or no on the equalization referendum, Alberta doesn’t have the power to change the federal program on its own


Author of the article:Madeline Smith
Publishing date:Oct 14, 2021
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Calgary and Edmonton have notably different takes on the upcoming equalization referendum, according to a new poll.

In a Leger survey conducted from Oct. 8 to 11, eligible voters in both cities were asked for their answer on the questions the provincial government has added to municipal ballots. The equalization question asks whether a specific section of the Constitution Act — Canada’s “commitment to the principle of making equalization payments” — should be removed.

Half of Calgary respondents answered yes, while just one-third of those polled in Edmonton agreed. And while 34 per cent of Calgarians polled said no, 41 per cent gave that answer in Edmonton.

Edmontonians were also more likely to give a “don’t know” response, at slightly more than a quarter of respondents, while just 16 per cent of those from Calgary weren’t sure.

The poll collected answers from 502 people in Calgary and 503 in Edmonton through an online panel.

Leger executive vice-president Ian Large said there’s some speculation involved in accounting for the differences between the cities, but it might be partly due to economic views from each.

“It’s a feature of, I think, the sense that Calgary has historically seen themselves as the economic driver of the province,” he said.

“The perception is, ‘We’re the ones that are writing the cheques.’ . . . Calgary may feel a little more hard done by.”

Municipal elections will be held across the province on Monday. There is also an additional provincial referendum question about whether Albertans support moving to year-round Daylight Time, and in Calgary there’s a municipal question asking whether voters support restoring water fluoridation.

Regardless of whether a majority answers yes or no on the equalization referendum, Alberta doesn’t have the power to change the federal program on its own.

Premier Jason Kenney said as recently as Wednesday during a Facebook Live Q&A that the vote is about getting “leverage” with the federal government on equalization reform.

Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt added partisanship may also be at play in the choice voters make.

“While there are conservatives in Calgary who despise Jason Kenney, they may hold their nose and vote yes on equalization changes because it fits with their ideological makeup,” he said. “Edmonton’s a very different city.”

Large added that the poll only shows results from Alberta’s two biggest cities, but the equalization referendum will be a part of municipal ballots across the province. Rural areas, as well as smaller cities such as Lethbridge, Medicine Hat and Red Deer, will be a factor in the final outcome.

Because the poll was conducted through a non-random internet survey, a margin of error can’t be determined. But by comparison, the probability sample of the size collected in both Edmonton and Calgary would have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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