Supporting the most exposed and vulnerable societies to reduce regional and global climate risks
CHATHAM HOUSE
RESEARCH PAPER
19 OCTOBER 2021
ISBN: 978 1 78413 499 0
Show authors
This research paper – drawing on insights from 200 experts – highlights that, within the current decade, climate hazards are expected to have increasingly serious disruptive impacts. While many hazards may now be inevitable, action on adaptation has the potential to limit the worst expected climate impacts, at regional and global levels.
The 10 hazard-impact pathways of greatest near-term concern all relate to regions of Africa and Asia. The impacts of greatest concern – food security and migration and displacement of people – may arise from hazards such as drought, changing rainfall patterns or heatwaves. Impacts will be greatest where communities are already most vulnerable, but will also set off interacting, compounding cascades of secondary impacts that cross borders and continents.
That ‘no one is safe until everyone is safe’, often repeated during the COVID-19 pandemic, is just as critical in relation to climate hazards. Between now and 2030, support for adaptation measures to address socio-economic vulnerabilities in the most at-risk regions will be vital. Without such support, it will be impossible to avert systemic climate impact cascades that translate local hazards into impacts felt across the globe.
Image — People rest at the Oregon Convention Center cooling station in Portland, Oregon, on 28 June 2021, as a heatwave moves over much of the US. Photo: Copyright © Kathryn Elsesser/AFP/Getty Images
Topics
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD
CIVIL SOCIETY
CLIMATE POLICY
G7 AND G20
GENDER AND EQUALITY
HUMAN RIGHTS AND SECURITY
MANAGING NATURAL RESOURCES
REFUGEES AND MIGRATION
UNITED NATIONS (UN)
Departments
ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIETY PROGRAMME Download PDF
What near-term climate impacts should worry us most?
Summary
01 Introduction
02 Approach and methodology
03 Results and discussion
04 Conclusion and recommendations
About the authors
Acknowledgments
This short video explainer outlines how, within the current decade, climate hazards are expected to have increasingly serious disruptive impacts.
This research paper draws on the findings of a structured, multi-round expert elicitation exercise, involving 200 climate scientists and specialists in other relevant disciplines, to assess which near-term climate hazards and impacts should most concern decision-makers in the coming decade.
Findings and conclusions
Between now and 2030, climate hazards will have increasingly significant, disruptive impacts.
The 10 direct hazard-impact pathways of greatest near-term concern all relate to Africa or Asia.
Many socio-economic vulnerabilities to climate hazards have been identified in these regions. If left unaddressed, such vulnerabilities have the potential to initiate complex chains of impacts that are likely to have a destabilizing effect on national and international security in the near term.
Decisive action is urgently needed to address socio-economic vulnerabilities to climate hazards in these regions. Such action can help prevent devastating local and regional impacts, and forestall cascading and compounding global climate impacts within the next decade.
The near-term impacts of greatest concern are:
Cascading impacts on food security, migration and global supply chains, originating in the most vulnerable countries and affecting regional country groups and the wider global community.
Food security impacts in South and Southeast Asia, and Australasia.
Global food security impacts arising from multiple climate hazards, including extreme heat, drought, storm damage, flooding and multiple breadbasket failure.
Migration and displacement impacts in East Africa, South, Southeast and East Asia, the Caribbean and Central America.
Cyclones and typhoons in Southeast and South Asia causing significant infrastructure loss and damage, with global cascading impacts on international supply chains.
Drought and crop failure driving displacement and migration of people from East Africa and the Sahel into Southern Europe.
Drought directly creating conditions for conflict in Africa, with particular vulnerability in East Africa.
Changing rainfall patterns and drought impacting livelihoods and income in Africa.
Recommendations
Adaptation measures are urgently needed. In the near term, global adaptation efforts must focus on addressing socio-economic vulnerabilities in the most threatened regions. Already, 33 concrete food security measures have been identified by 21 African countries. These provide a starting point for action.
Urgent adaptation action in vulnerable countries and regions should be financed and supported by richer countries. Such action is in the interests of all nations, to prevent cascading food insecurity, migration and conflict across the world. That ‘no one is safe until everyone is safe’, repeated so often during the COVID-19 pandemic, is just as critical in relation to climate hazards.
Adaptation measures should, at a minimum, not increase the risk of conflict, and should where possible enhance peacebuilding, given that many socio-economic vulnerabilities are interlinked with domestic and regional tensions. Efforts to combine adaptation and peacebuilding require improved governance, security and economic growth, and – crucially – the buy-in of affected communities.
A comprehensive and up-to-date climate risk register is needed, incorporating near-term climate impacts (including cascading impacts), socio-economic vulnerabilities and associated adaptations. This should complement the outputs of climate impact models to enable more targeted action from the private sector and governments. Many experts recommend that a UN body such as the Security Council should hold this risk register.
Mitigation of climate change is fundamental. In the absence of more ambitious NDCs and sector initiatives leading to drastic emissions reductions in the very near term, by 2030 the world may well be locked into impacts so severe they go beyond the limits of what nations can adapt to.
Repeating this exercise, with modifications and improvements, would be valuable while more comprehensive systems for tracking emerging and near-term climate risks are established.
Show authors
This research paper – drawing on insights from 200 experts – highlights that, within the current decade, climate hazards are expected to have increasingly serious disruptive impacts. While many hazards may now be inevitable, action on adaptation has the potential to limit the worst expected climate impacts, at regional and global levels.
The 10 hazard-impact pathways of greatest near-term concern all relate to regions of Africa and Asia. The impacts of greatest concern – food security and migration and displacement of people – may arise from hazards such as drought, changing rainfall patterns or heatwaves. Impacts will be greatest where communities are already most vulnerable, but will also set off interacting, compounding cascades of secondary impacts that cross borders and continents.
That ‘no one is safe until everyone is safe’, often repeated during the COVID-19 pandemic, is just as critical in relation to climate hazards. Between now and 2030, support for adaptation measures to address socio-economic vulnerabilities in the most at-risk regions will be vital. Without such support, it will be impossible to avert systemic climate impact cascades that translate local hazards into impacts felt across the globe.
Image — People rest at the Oregon Convention Center cooling station in Portland, Oregon, on 28 June 2021, as a heatwave moves over much of the US. Photo: Copyright © Kathryn Elsesser/AFP/Getty Images
Topics
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD
CIVIL SOCIETY
CLIMATE POLICY
G7 AND G20
GENDER AND EQUALITY
HUMAN RIGHTS AND SECURITY
MANAGING NATURAL RESOURCES
REFUGEES AND MIGRATION
UNITED NATIONS (UN)
Departments
ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIETY PROGRAMME Download PDF
What near-term climate impacts should worry us most?
Summary
01 Introduction
02 Approach and methodology
03 Results and discussion
04 Conclusion and recommendations
About the authors
Acknowledgments
This short video explainer outlines how, within the current decade, climate hazards are expected to have increasingly serious disruptive impacts.
This research paper draws on the findings of a structured, multi-round expert elicitation exercise, involving 200 climate scientists and specialists in other relevant disciplines, to assess which near-term climate hazards and impacts should most concern decision-makers in the coming decade.
Findings and conclusions
Between now and 2030, climate hazards will have increasingly significant, disruptive impacts.
The 10 direct hazard-impact pathways of greatest near-term concern all relate to Africa or Asia.
Many socio-economic vulnerabilities to climate hazards have been identified in these regions. If left unaddressed, such vulnerabilities have the potential to initiate complex chains of impacts that are likely to have a destabilizing effect on national and international security in the near term.
Decisive action is urgently needed to address socio-economic vulnerabilities to climate hazards in these regions. Such action can help prevent devastating local and regional impacts, and forestall cascading and compounding global climate impacts within the next decade.
The near-term impacts of greatest concern are:
Cascading impacts on food security, migration and global supply chains, originating in the most vulnerable countries and affecting regional country groups and the wider global community.
Food security impacts in South and Southeast Asia, and Australasia.
Global food security impacts arising from multiple climate hazards, including extreme heat, drought, storm damage, flooding and multiple breadbasket failure.
Migration and displacement impacts in East Africa, South, Southeast and East Asia, the Caribbean and Central America.
Cyclones and typhoons in Southeast and South Asia causing significant infrastructure loss and damage, with global cascading impacts on international supply chains.
Drought and crop failure driving displacement and migration of people from East Africa and the Sahel into Southern Europe.
Drought directly creating conditions for conflict in Africa, with particular vulnerability in East Africa.
Changing rainfall patterns and drought impacting livelihoods and income in Africa.
Recommendations
Adaptation measures are urgently needed. In the near term, global adaptation efforts must focus on addressing socio-economic vulnerabilities in the most threatened regions. Already, 33 concrete food security measures have been identified by 21 African countries. These provide a starting point for action.
Urgent adaptation action in vulnerable countries and regions should be financed and supported by richer countries. Such action is in the interests of all nations, to prevent cascading food insecurity, migration and conflict across the world. That ‘no one is safe until everyone is safe’, repeated so often during the COVID-19 pandemic, is just as critical in relation to climate hazards.
Adaptation measures should, at a minimum, not increase the risk of conflict, and should where possible enhance peacebuilding, given that many socio-economic vulnerabilities are interlinked with domestic and regional tensions. Efforts to combine adaptation and peacebuilding require improved governance, security and economic growth, and – crucially – the buy-in of affected communities.
A comprehensive and up-to-date climate risk register is needed, incorporating near-term climate impacts (including cascading impacts), socio-economic vulnerabilities and associated adaptations. This should complement the outputs of climate impact models to enable more targeted action from the private sector and governments. Many experts recommend that a UN body such as the Security Council should hold this risk register.
Mitigation of climate change is fundamental. In the absence of more ambitious NDCs and sector initiatives leading to drastic emissions reductions in the very near term, by 2030 the world may well be locked into impacts so severe they go beyond the limits of what nations can adapt to.
Repeating this exercise, with modifications and improvements, would be valuable while more comprehensive systems for tracking emerging and near-term climate risks are established.
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